Racing For Rupert

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert About time I put up my ante-post(!) for the Fred Winter on Wednesday in case the price comes in... 4.40 Cheltenham (Weds) - 1pt e/w Zamdy Man @ 20/1 (Bet365) Followers of the thread will know I quite like this horse. I shouldn't really, as I don't think I've won anything with him, but I'll forgive him should he come up trumps on Wednesday! As I've said before he caught my eye on the flat in three starts, looking a proper galloper who would want 1m4f. He's a nice, big type who looked like a potentially useful juvenile hurdler and he's performed well on three starts so far. His first effort came in a Grade 1 which says all you need to know about how highly Venetia Williams rated him and he ran well for a very long way considering he had a lot of work on to compete against quality, relatively experienced juveniles. He travelled and jumped well in the main but got tired on his first run for a while also and sweated up quite badly as well. He looked better visably at Huntingdon and I really thought he'd go in that day but Chris Pea Green (a talented type himself) had too much speed and sprinted clear. My selection galloped on well to be a clear 2nd but just lacked the speed of the winner. Calculated Risk was well behind that day and even if he wasn't quite right, it still adds some substance to the form (that one is 14/1 for this should he run, having won on Saturday). He again sweated up quite badly at Haydock last time and that would be a concern on the big occasion but he still ran well again so it's maybe not a big negative. He did look a bit slow but plugged on to regain 2nd close home and I think there are no issues about his stamina. He finds off the bridle which is another positive here and although that form maybe isn't quite so special it was a decent effort on very heavy ground. Although he handles soft I'd expect he'll be happier on a sounder surface and he gets in here off a fair weight. Seven of the eight winners of this race were beaten on their first two hurdling starts so the fact that this one has yet to win over obstacles is no real negative as his mark is potentially more lenient and he also scrapes into the important trend that 7 winners had also run within 25 days (will be exactly that figure for Williams' charge). Flat ability is fairly important in this race historically too and he's got a solid rating of 81 in that sphere and I don't think he had chance to reach his potential either (obviously the case with many) but he never really got his optimum conditions so I think he's probably a bit better than that. The track should really suit I think as he's a galloper and not necessarily a speedster (although he can travel - just doesn't have much of a turn of foot) so the testing 2m should be right up his street. The yard are enjoying a good season and Aidan Coleman jumps back aboard having been on at Huntingdon. Fingers crossed he doesn't boil over prior to the race but he's capable of running a good solid race and I reckon this may be the most ideal race he's had in his career to date with regards to conditions. Decent chance at a decent price.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert And finally before I bid the thread good night until the big day, an update: Bets: 160 Wins: 23 Placed: 48 Pts Staked: 260pts Pts Returned: 318pts P/L: +58pts A slight loss since the last update but not as bad as it looked like it may prove to be. Considering I've picked out quite a few stinkers of late, I'm happy enough with the 7pt decrease in the bank since I last posted the stats. A couple of decent winners on Friday and Saturday pulled it back fairly nicely going into a huge week. Anything can and probably will happen - just got to hope it can be entertaining and profitable. Fingers crossed!

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert It's fair to say this isn't going well. Never seems to on the first day for me. Arvika bombed, River Maigue outclassed, Fruity 5th with 4 places paid and Grandouet going beautifully when falling. You never know what might have happened but gut tells me he'd have been right there. At least my NAP is still to come with The Druids Nephew but feeling pretty underwhelmed so far!

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Utterly terrible. At least tomorrow can't be any worse. Not what you want from the first day of a big festival though.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Going to have to post the bets up and then the reasoning tomorrow I'm afraid. Had a busy night and up early so apologies. There also may be a couple more but not looked at a couple of races in depth yet: 1.30 - 1pt win Hawkes Point @ 11/1 (PP) 2.40 - 2pts win Boston Bob @ 7/2 (PP) 4.00 - 2pts win Pendra @ 8/1 (VC) To join our bet already posted on Zamdy Man in the Fred Winter.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Will do short summaries now and extend tomorrow actually: 1pt win Hawkes Point @ 11/1 (PP) Paul Nicholls states that this horse is just as good as Harry The Viking who was 2nd in this last year and his form does look pretty solid. Showed his stamina at Exeter over three miles on deep ground, and his effort behind Opening Batsman at Plumpton reads well. Plenty of stamina in the pedigree (by Kayf Tara and out of a mare who was 2nd over 3m2f) and I reckon he's overpriced.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2pts win Boston Bob @ 7/2 (PP) Although he has been a little underwhelming this season so far I think it's foolish to rule him out of running a belter here. He was 2nd in the Albert Bartlett last year and his first effort over fences came on unsuitably soft ground, after a lengthy break and over a trip on the short side. Managed to just get up - as he did last time out - but will be a different animal in a race with plenty of pace in it like this, back on better ground and 3 miles. Confident he'll be a different horse today.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2pts win Pendra @ 8/1 (VC) Looks feasibly handicapped on some very useful novice form and although it's tricky coming straight into such a competitive race with seasoned hurdlers I think he's got the maturity to cope and he should relish the step up in trip. His trainer seems to think so and his pedigree also leans that way being by Old Vic and out of a talented mare who stayed this far (also ran well at Cheltenham). Won a bumper and two novice hurdles in fine style before finding Melodic Rendezvous too strong last time. That's far from being disgraced though with that one rated 150. My selection runs off 139 today which looks exploitable given the step up in trip. The yard had two winners and a second from three runners prior to yesterday so that's no concern either and I think he'll go very well.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Would have liked to add some more substance but just lacked the time I'm afraid.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtvT-H4Du9A

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Going to have to be short posts again I'm afraid. Got quite a few lined up and not much time!

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Just going to jump in the shower so will put up the bets now and the reasoning in 20 mins or so: 1.30 - 1pt win Aupcharlie @ 7/1 (Hills) and 2pts win Aupcharlie w/o Dynaste @ 4/1 (Hills2 2.05 - 1pt win Ballybough Pat @ 16/1 (Bet365) 2.40 - 3pts win First Lieutenant @ 5/2 (Bet365) 3.20 - 1pt win Get Me Out Of Here @ 9/1 (Bet365) 4.00 - 2pts win Cantlow @ 7/1 (Bet365)

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.30 Cheltenham - 1pt win Aupcharlie @ 7/1 (Hills) and 2pts win Aupcharlie w/o Dynaste @ 4/1 (Hills) I'm a little disappointed that David Pipe switched races with his runner here as I was very keen on Aupcharlie but I do actually think he has a chance of overturning the hot favourite, or at the very least has a top chance of finishing 2nd. I personally think Captain Conan isn't anything hugely special and the 4/1 on offer without the favourite is generous. My selection has been running over 3 miles on heavy ground over in Ireland and he's simply been travelling like the winner but being outstayed late on to be narrowly denied. That's happened the last twice to Made In Focus and Tofino Bay. Those pieces of form have been franked nicely with those two filling out the first two placings in the four-mile contest yesterday and Willie Mullins' charge here should relish the drop back down in trip and better ground given his strong-travelling nature. He was more than useful in bumpers (3rd in the champion here in 2011) and although he disappointed a bit in a couple of hurdles, one of those was behind yesterday's RSA winner and he was always going to be better over fences. Has thrived for Mullins since and I can see him travelling up to Dynaste today and he clearly stays a bit further. The drying ground is in his favour and I see him as the principal threat to the favourite. Although impressive in the Feltham, he was racing horses rated a fair bit inferior and they went a slow gallop there - that suited him more than the runner-up and a lot of the other runners don't stay 3m very well so perhaps he was a tad flattered (although visually very impressive). He does rate as the most likely winner but I don't think he's totally bombproof and I'm very hopeful of at least a 2nd-placed finish for my selection.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.05 Cheltenham - 1pt win Ballybough Pat @ 16/1 (Bet365) If you believe Paul Nicholls then Sam Winner is thrown in here but the optimistic comments have left him far too short for such a race and I'd much sooner look elsewhere for some value. Those towards the bottom end of the weights often do well in this and I like Anthony Honeyball's runner who represents a yard in good form at the moment. He's a consistent horse who doesn't look impossibly handicapped as this race should suit ideally. He beat the smart African Gold (won all races since) on his hurdling debut before chasing home the quietly fancied Wonderful Charm for the World Hurdle next time out and his effort in a qualifier for this at Newbury was good. He was eventually outstayed a bit by Fair Along on very soft ground but that horse stays very well and it was still a very good effort I think from my selection. He raced quite keenly in midfield but still found plenty and rallied to take second back up the run-in after hitting the last. He's a good jumper which helps here (although has a strange tendency to miss the last out!), he travels well and he stays well. He had a stiff task back down in trip in a good race last time where it turned into a bit of a speed contest which wasn't ideal and this will help a lot more. A strong pace suits so he can settle better (or race more prominently than at Newbury) and the yard are in better form now than November which is another positive. Should run his race and I think he's got a good chance of making the frame at least.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.40 Cheltenham - 3pts win First Lieutenant @ 5/2 (Bet365) I'm not a huge chance of Cue Card for one reason or another and he's unlikely to get a soft lead (as he enjoys) with Champion Court in here also and as long as Davy Russell positions Mouse Morris' charge not too far away (as seems likely) then I think he'll relish this race. He's been running crackers over further in good races such as the Hennessy and the Lexus but just found one or two too strong and the drop back in trip should be no issue. He doesn't lack speed and clearly the ability to stay further will help here (I much prefer a horse who I know will get up the hill here). The drying ground also suits as connections feel he's a fair bit better on a sounder surface and he has strong form here (won Neptune 2011 and 2nd to Bobs Worth in RSA 2012). He's a sound jumper usually and I just think he's got a mammoth chance here with everything to suit. So long as they don't go slow and Cue Card can use his pace to get away at a crucial point I think he'll have the measure of that one up the straight and not much else catches my eye, for all it's an open event. Deserves a big win again and I think it'll be today.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 3.20 Cheltenham - 1pt win Get Me Out Of Here @ 9/1 (Bet365) This is the most open World Hurdle for many years for obvious reasons and you won't find a more consistent horse at the Festival than Jonjo O'Neill's runner here - and boy does he deserve to get his head in front. He's been second in the Supreme Novices', the County Hurdle and the Coral Cup the last three years and he should be primed for another crack this year, again in a different race. Obviously the main issue is the trip as he's not proved himself over three miles before but you can essentially scrap his form on deep ground this season as he clearly needs a sounder surface and the hurdles course seems pretty decent now. I think he has a good chance of staying as well as the 2m5f in the Coral Cup takes some getting with the pace on in that race and he wasn't stopping at the line despite bumping into a handicap plot last year. He was under pressure before the turn in so for him to stay on past horses into second, without the rest closing on him up the hill bodes well for this. It's unlikely they'll go as quick here and fingers crossed for him he can finally get a Festival win under his belt.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 4.00 Cheltenham - 2pts win Cantlow @ 7/1 (Bet365) Novices have a pretty good record in this race and Paul Webber's charge has been shrewdly campaigned I reckon for all he has won two out of four chases and been runner-up on the other two occasions. He clearly stays further than the two miles he's been running over - given his third in the Pertemps Final last year - and sharp tracks wouldn't be ideal for him either. His chase runs have been at Warwick, Plumpton, Lingfield and Taunton so he was unlikely to perform quite to his best there (albeit won by a wide margin last time at Taunton). Connections also think he's better on decent ground and I just think the step up in trip is sure to suit today on a more galloping track. He's a big horse who always looked like a chaser so although he may not have beaten anything too special so far, he runs off the same mark as over hurdles and I think he'll comfortably be a better chaser in time. Not a big price but certainly has a big chance.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Someone needs to tell D:Ream that they were chatting bull****.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert And Cantlow withdrawn. Definitely drama at Cheltenham! I'm embarrassed with how it's gone this week. Apologies to anyone who reads and may even take advice - God forbid!

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert One place in three days and that was a 2/1 favourite.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Big day today! After this it's a year until we're here again so really hoping we can recoup some losses. Doubling up in a couple of races and quite a lot of selections but it is Cheltenham...as hopeful as I possibly can be so fingers crossed!

[Karijini]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Best of luck!

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.30 Cheltenham - 2pts win Rolling Aces @ 7/2 (BlueSQ) and 1pt win Lac Fontana @ 18/1 (Bet365) It's interesting that those with flat form going into the Triumph almost all had run over 1m4f on the level before going hurdling. That would be a concern for the otherwise impressive Our Conor and given his furthest trip was 1m2f and only won over as far as a mile does put some doubt on his stamina. Obviously he's looked very good over in Ireland but it's a completely different ball game here as I reckon quite a lot of novice events over there are run at steady paces and there will be no places to hide here. That's why I often favour British form in such contests and Far West has strong credentials but I don't like the form of his last two runs really and although his defeat of Vasco Du Ronceray does read well, that one probably wanted better ground than what was on offer that day. I like another Nicholls runner at a price in here as Daryl Jacob's mount looks sure to enjoy the way this race ought to be run. Although he's only been 2nd and 3rd to date over hurdles, both races weren't ideal for him as they didn't go much pace at all in either (first run saw an enormous amount of horses in contention late on). He was also squeezed out coming down to the last there but rallied strongly to chase home the very smart Chatterbox. Would have given it a race with a clear passage and again the race was far from ideal last time. It turned into a dash (my selection appeared to be going nowhere when first under pressure) which suited the very good Forgotten Voice (who got his good ground), with Nicholls' charge staying on very powerfully to close right up on the second-placed horse who had several lengths on him at the last. A faster pace and stiffer track looks sure to suit and we saw how stamina came to the fore in this last year. I am splitting my stakes with Nicky Henderson's past course winner who was quite impressive I thought when getting the better of Irish Saint. That horse probably had the run of things and was handed the initiative at the last when my selection made an error and lost momentum. However, he recovered to stay on really well to get on terms and draw quickly on. Looks to have a big engine and travels well too. Think he's got improvement in him and I liked the way he came up the hill that day (pair miles clear). Think he's going to be bang there at the finish.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Of course I mean Rolling Star - too many horses in the database in my head!

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.05 Cheltenham - 1pt win Ifandbutwhynot @ 11/1 (VC) and 1pt win Ranjaan @ 14/1 (VC) I backed David O'Meara's charge when he was very impressive here back in November - he was hampered at 2 out but impressively found his stride quickly again to take the lead and draw 3 1/2l clear at the line. He beat a horse now rated 35lbs higher in 2nd that day (my selection 18lbs higher here) so the form does stack up and he also beat the now 141-rated Eduard at Newcastle the race before that so there is still every chance he can be capable off a mark of 135. This mark is right in the ideal range on trends for this race and the way the race will be run is absolutely spot on for him. He's a very powerful traveller who will probably trade shorter in running and so long as he avoids trouble should relish the fast pace that looks likely with such a big field. He disappointed at Sandown next time out when 9th of 12 but it was a slow and messy race where 3l covered the entire field turning in and it turned into a sprint. He's much better coming off a good gallop and he couldn't quicken in the ground. It was disappointing but wasn't given a hard time so the result was possibly exaggerated a bit. Bounced back in a weaker race last time at Musselburgh off 130 but the race looks fairly solid with the rivals subsequently running well to suggest he did run to his mark. This will suit down to the ground and is versatile ground wise. Think he'll run a big one. The other horse who I got down onto my shortlist is Ruby Walsh's mount who will be praying that the rain doesn't come until after the race. He's a horse who wants a fairly sound surface and if he does then I think he can run very well. He's another with a good weight and has done little wrong over hurdles really. He was a good 2nd to a smart rival on his debut over jumps and won his next two completed races (including a comfortable win over the very useful Third Intention. Ran well for a long way after a year off at Ascot in December on bottomless ground when finishing midfield and was a rock solid 2nd in a jumpers bumper to prepare for this last time out. You typically want a relatively unexposed horse here (2nd season hurdlers ideal) and he should run well if the ground is on his side.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.40 Cheltenham - 1.5pts e/w Our Vinnie @ 9/1 (Bet365) The withdrawal of Ballycasey is no bad thing for me as I couldn't make head nor tail of that one. I do like At Fishers Cross but the one that stands out as each-way value to me is Our Vinnie who is hard as nails and looking at the race could be tough to pass if setting off in front. He has tried to make all in a few races of late which I think suits as he has stamina in abundance and a very good attitude. He's a real battler which is a big asset in a 3m novice race and given there doesn't seem any real front-runners in the field with his exception I think he could get a nice lead to make it a test for the rest. He does have sufficient quality too, however, beating some good horses on his path here. He probably should have been made more use of when running here in the autumn over 3m2f as he made a mistake at the last when challenging which cost him a lot of momentum but he flew up the hill to only just fail. That proved his stamina and also he handles this track and having first run would have helped. With proven stamina he set off in front at Cork and Limerick in small fields and was headed both times. However, he rallied bravely to win both from the very smart Rule The World and Pride Ofthe Parish. Although beaten 22l in 3rd last time he dropped back to 2m4f which isn't ideal and faced Pont Alexandre and couldn't get to the front with that opne making all. The substantially stiffer test here will suit and if the rain comes this afternoon then all the better as he should outstay plenty of these which is why I think he's a good each-way bet - especially if getting his way up front.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 3.20 Cheltenham - 3pts win Sir Des Champs @ 4/1 (Bet365) I've been waiting for this day for quite a long time having fancied this horse for Gold Cup glory after he won the Jewson last year. He was very impressive that day and looks to be even better upped in trip. He's stormed up the hill here twice when also winning the Martin Pipe in 2011 from a ridiculous position and course form is obviously a big advantage. I also really like Bobs Worth who also has a cracking record here but I'm very concerned about his absence for all connections would tell you not to be. Horses often struggle at the festival when not having raced in the calendar year and that swings things in the favour of Sir Des Champs. Obviously he wouldn't want a lot of rain but he's not exactly a mug on soft ground and would still hold every chance. He seems to be getting better with every run this season and will surely be ripe for this. He suffered for fitness, ground and trip when beaten by the very good Flemenstar over 2m4f on his return and then I think he was the horse to take out of the Lexus. He never jumped but showed what an engine he has by storming home and finishing just 3/4l behind in fourth. He's much better than that and it was an altogether better performance last time when getting revenge on Flemenstar over a more favourable trip. He's fit, trained by a man in red hot form, has the champion jockey on board and so long as his jumping holds up should be finishing to good effect. It is an open race but I've liked this one all along and can't desert him now - has a very good chance.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 4.40 Cheltenham - 1pt win Ma Filleule @ 10/1 (PP) I personally think the favourite is outrageously short having been put up 15lbs for winning a fairly weak race last time. Those that followed him home have done next to nothing since (in quite a few races) and I can't back him at 6/1 in what is a fiercely competitive handicap. Jeremiah McGrath is a top conditional jockey and although his mount isn't exactly a big price at 10s I think this mare has a big shout as she looks fairly handicapped to me. She's won two races with a couple of seconds in listed events in between. However, those defeats came at the hands of smart horses (only just done late on by a 135-rated rival) and she wasn't stopping, just got done for a bit of stamina by a strong stayer. Although she's up in trip today I don't see a problem as even when beaten by good mares she hasn't appeared to run out of gas. She also seems to be improving - her good win over 2m3f at Warwick last time reads very well now. She stayed on well and the 2nd and 3rd there were subsequently 3rd and 5th in the Mares Hurdle earlier this week. On that evidence she beat some rock solid low 130-rated horses by 2l fairly comfortably and she runs off 134 today. There's sufficient stamina in her pedigree to suggest my assumption about the trip is correct and unexposed types are often the way to go in these events. I think she's still improving, can be a few lbs better for the trip and ought to go well.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 5.15 Cheltenham - 2pts win Rody @ 10/1 (VC) This is another race where unexposed types tend to thrive and also it's difficult to carry a lot of weight historically. Tom George's runner fits both trends and is improving at a good race of knots. I think he's got a huge chance at a solid price here as his form has a lot of substance to it. He's progressed really well since winning at Leicester last February. He was beaten 2l on his reappearance by Drumshambo (probably just needing the run) with that one rated 120 (runs off 142 today). My selection got 5lbs there and receives 2lbs today but I think he can still reverse the form today given the progression shown and given Venetia Williams' charge had the fitness advantage that day. Since that 2nd Rody has won well twice from two starts. He won by 4l at Wincanton - beating a horse running off 104 who is now off 132 so it's strong form - and won even further last time off a mark of 127. He was 8l clear at the line and going further away at Warwick with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th all winning since (5th over hurdles). Again that's very strong form and the track probably wasn't ideal either. He was under pressure before the runner-up and only a length and a half up over the last but finished 8l ahead at the line so the stiffer track here should suit well and proved himself capable of going left-handed there as well. Has gone up another 13lbs here but beware of an in-form horse and the substance of his form along with the suitability of this race make him an attractive betting proposition.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert **** off.