Racing For Rupert

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Thought Topo Gigio was coming to win at a nice 14/1. Easily beat the rest but just found one too strong. Always sickening.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Could have had whatever price you want in running with Monksland but he stayed on very strongly to score. Good stuff.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Bets: 74 Wins: 10 Placed: 21 Pts Staked: 119pts Pts Returned: 129pts P/L: +10pts Not very spectacular but the majority are running good races and a good platform to build on in the new year (so long as there's no horrific few days before the end of the month!).

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 12.30 Newbury - 2pts win Simply Ben @ 15/2 (PP) Nick Mitchell's runner looks very interesting to me as he goes handicapping over fences for the first time. He's still lightly-raced in general - having had just eight starts to date - but appears especially of interest over the larger obstacles. It hasn't taken long for connections to put a fence in front of him and he looks to have the scope to progress off this mark in chases. He was a good third to Ambion Wood in a novice hurdle last season prior to getting off the mark but was out of his depth in a Grade 2 at Haydock subsequently. Was only beaten 1 3/4l in a handicap off a mark of 115 on his final start of the campaign and that came on good to soft ground. He seems to relish testing conditions so the fact he runs off 117 today gives me every confidence in him. On appearance it looks like anything he did over hurdles would be a bonus as he's a chaser on looks so I reckon he'll prove better than a 117 horse when he gets his conditions. He shaped as if needing the run over hurdles on his seasonal reappearance and had no chance of beating the speedier Highland Lodge and Our Father on his chasing debut. However, he showed he could jump (albeit he was a little inconsistent at times) and stayed on really well on the ground (pulled 25l of the fourth having been last of the bunch down the back straight.) Although the drop down to 2m6f wouldn't be ideal, he'll certainly be staying on and he handles the ground better than most. The track will suit and if he doesn't get too far back I think he'll go very close. 2.55 Doncaster - 2pts win Fill The Power @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes) Sue Smith's horse is another who always looked like a chaser and also was pitched into some very hot races in his novice hurdling season. He managed to win two races over the smaller obstacles and finished the season with victory on his chase debut at Sedgefield. He probably needed the run on his return at Wetherby when attempting to give weight to a good horse who goes very well fresh but wasn't beaten far by the 2nd when coming home in third. He ran at the same track over the 3m1f trip again last time out but got much closer when being beaten by 1/2l. That was on soft ground so he's proved he can go on today's surface and that he isn't handicapped out of matters given that was off 5lbs lower. Although he's gone up for finishing 2nd, the front two were 6l clear and the form has worked out. The winner won off 13lbs higher next time out and the 4th was placed in a good Haydock handicap last weekend. The Doncaster track will suit, he jumps well, and a repeat performance would see him go close once more. Dougie Costello takes the ride and he has an impressive 19% strike rate at Doncaster (+54.80 to level stakes). 3.15 Newbury - 2pts win African Gold @ 5/1 (Bet365) I'm committing the sin of jumping ship very quickly having had a nice win with Bakbenscher just seven days ago. However, that is the reason why I'm taking him on this week. He may well go in again but it was a slog when he won at Haydock and he might just find this coming too quickly off the back of that. I'm not totally convinced that Salubrious wants a slog over 2m5f so I'm going to side with a horse who I know stays well and handles the ground/course. Although he's 3lbs 'wrong' at the weights, African Gold has won three and finished second from his four career starts to date and it was no disgrace to finish 2nd to a good type on his seasonal return this year at Carlisle. That one is now rated 137 and just got first run on my selection. He made no mistake at Wetherby next time and benefited from a more positive ride over this c&d last time out off 118. He wasn't hugely strong in the market but ran very gamely in the contest as he fought off competition to forge clear at the finish. He has stamina in abundance on that evidence so the even more testing ground today should suit. He shouldn't be stopping whereas others may. The first two were 18l clear last time so he's still potentially fairly-handicapped and the 2nd has run sufficiently well (placed) since to suggest the form has some substance (4th also franked it). He had to give weight away to the majority of rivals on that occasion too so it was a very good effort. He's off a light weight here and although he's facing some tougher opponents he does have the credentials to complete the hat-trick. When push comes to shove on this ground I like to be one with plenty of stamina and finds under pressure so with that in mind I think the 5/1 about a proven individual is quite a decent price.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Satisfactory albeit slightly frustrating day. Simply Ben was disappointing. Haven't seen the race but it appears that his jumping didn't stand up. I thought Fill The Power was sure to win when he cut back the leader coming to the last but that one pulled out more when joined and we were beat by 1/2l. Because of that I'd have been spitting feathers had African Gold failed to hold on. I had faith given the way he won last time out and he always seemed to be just holding on up the run-in, despite hanging, to score by a neck. Travels, jumps and stays well so is a very likable type and horse you want to be backing especially on this ground. Bets: 77 Wins: 11 Placed: 22 Pts Staked: 125pts Pts Returned: 141pts P/L: +16pts

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.10 Taunton - 1pt win Hired Hand @ 20/1 (Bet365) Jonjo O'Neill second string in here it seems but is far from out of it if building on his recent return at Kempton. If he can reproduce the form from a couple of years ago then he'd have a good chance off this mark as he proved capable on the flat and over jumps. Even though he had been absent for 18 months or so, he's still lightly-raced and at the age of 6 there is plenty of scope for him to get back into the form of old. Although he stopped quickly at Kempton on his return, he travelled fairly well and jumped slickly before getting tired but that's somewhat expected considering the absence and it was over 2m5f on deep ground. The return to 2 miles (or a tad over) looks to be in his favour and he does handle this ground. I get the feeling both a lack of fitness and the trip caught him out last time (and it was a decent race) so the fact he's got that under his belt and drops back in trip I think he's overpriced. The yard are going better now and have had a very good last couple of days so that's another positive and although he does have an inexperienced rider on board and the second colours I think he's a live outsider here.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 3.30 Taunton - 2pts win Waterunder @ 5/1 (Bet365) I'm not totally convinced that the Jeremy Scott-trained favourite will want this type of slog off top weight and am far more interested in the David Pipe runner who caught the eye at Cheltenham last time on his seasonal/handicap debut. He was given an extremely confident ride from today's inexperienced jockey as he was held up right out the back and not asked for any real effort until they began the turn for home. He had an enormous amount of ground to make up but he did eat into the deficit prior to getting tired late on. He travelled like a decent horse and you'd think he could maintain an effort a bit longer now he's got fitness on his side. He probably shouldn't be given that much to do but he ran a good race until his progress was halted and I fancy him to go very well here with fitness on his side if handling the ground. This is easier, he looks off a decent mark on his novice form and the yard are in form.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.05 Punchestown - 2pts win What's On The Menu @ 9/2 (PP) Think the favourite is beatable back over fences and this one has run some solid races of late. Seemed to find the three miles on heavy ground a little bit too testing last time out but even still it was not a handicap and included some types a fair bit better than him. Returns to a handicap off a mark of 113 and is back in trip. He had too much to do in his only handicap chase when piloted by a 7lb claimer and he couldn't have a better jockey on board today in Ruby Walsh. Can go well if he doesn't give him too much to do.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.10 Uttoxeter - 3pts win Lovely Muck @ 100/30 (Ladbrokes) Be My Light sets a solid standard but he has a pretty poor strike rate and is well worth taking on off top-weight off what looks a fairly difficult mark for him. On the contrary, Nigel Twiston-Davies' handicap debutant in here looks very interesting a represents a yard with a 21% strike rate at the track. He was a staying on 2nd on his second start over hurdles but that came over a 2m trip that seemed insufficient and it wasn't a bad race he competed in at Ludlow last time out. The result doesn't look that impressive but he wasn't given a hard time after an error towards the end of the race and the ground was plausibly on the lively side. The return to this surface can help (dam stayed well and was a winner on soft) and he enters handicap off a fair mark by the looks of it. This is a weak race with questionable characters in it and it won't take anything special to get most of them beat. Think this one will take the beating.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.35 Punchestown - 3pts win Call Rog @ 3/1 (Skybet) Even though this is a large field, I think it contains a lot of deadwood and Michael Morris' runner looks the one they all have to beat here having been unfortunate last time. He stumbled at the last before closing on the winner and may well have won. He's only 5lbs higher for that and when you consider he'll prove better over this 2m4f trip (than 2m) he should remain fairly handicapped. He's finished well on all starts over hurdles and he's consistent so he must be tough to beat here. He handles soft and the yard are going ok. Find it very hard to see him not there at the end and the fact he finishes well will make him a very difficult nut to crack.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Horrible day. Two of my most confident bets for a while and neither deliver. Disappointing way to end the year.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.45 Musselburgh - 1pt win Dontpaytheferryman @ 12/1 (Bet365) Brian Ellison's charge relishes his racing here with form figures of 31131 over hurdles at the track. This includes a win off a 1lb lower mark than today under this rider so he looks set to run another blinder from the front. He wasn't disgraced over fences last time but seems happier over the smaller obstacles and was ridden with restraint two starts back which isn't ideal. He's at his best when allowed to bowl along in front and is usually tough to pass. This is a competitive field but he jumps well and gallops on with all ground not seeming to inconvenience. The favourite returns from a long break and if needing the run, the race is wide open so at 12/1 I'll side with a horse who is very likely to run his race.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.50 Ayr - 2pts win Daasij @ 14/1 (SJ) I find the price of this horse a little bit hard to understand but I suppose the market is often correct. However, I'm going to chance that they're just totally wrong as prior to disappointing last time out, he'd won four on the bounce. Three of those came in 2011 but scored on his return this year after 18 months off the track. That came over this c&d off a 7lb lower mark where he forged on to score by 4l. He didn't jump nor travel like he can at Wetherby last time out but it's plausible he suffered from the 'bounce' factor and has been given a month off since to try and freshen him up. If he returns to the form he was in two starts ago then he must have a chance on ground he likes. You may need a strong stayer to win this and although Boris The Blade and Bollin Fiona appear to have that in abundance, and should be staying on, my selection has the advantage of having more speed than those two. When on song he can travel well and certainly finds at the end of his races so the stayers may be plodding on but I'm hopeful that Lucy Alexander can get first run (if starting her challenge in front of these) under a pretty light weight for these conditions.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.50 Ayr - 2pts win Prosecco @ 9/2 (VC) I'm not really impressed with Desert Cry's jumping and that makes him worth taking on at such a short price I feel off a mark which is only 1lb under his best hurdle win and it hasn't been proven that he's any better over fences just yet. Lucinda Russell has 3 up already at Ayr today and must have another good chance with the in-form course specialist Prosecco in this contest. The horse has won 4 over c&d and relishes testing ground. He is 7lbs higher for winning at Wetherby last time when digging deep but I think that can be upgraded for a couple of reasons. It was his first win away from this venue so he's clearly in good shape for a return today and also the test at Wetherby may not have been sufficient. The deeper ground here today should help and he's a pretty sound jumper. He won here by 10l two starts ago and looks sure to run another good race. He's more experienced that some of these and he can hopefully expose any flaws in their game this afternoon.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Daasij useless again. Prosecco 5l clear but decided to stop going into a fence up the straight and lost 4 lengths at it and that cost him any chance he had. Very disappointing day again.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert The more I dig, the stronger I am on Soll. Decided to take the plunge. Coral Welsh National - 1pt win Soll @ 16/1 (PP) It is without doubt that Teaforthree has a good chance but at 7/2 he represents no value in my eyes for such a competitive event, especially when you consider that one wasn't too far ahead of Jo Hughes' runner in the Hennessy. You can fairly argue that the step up in trip makes all the difference but it is not as if Soll won't enjoy the stiffer test as well. He was fairly well-fancied for the 4 miler at the Cheltenham Festival last year when brought down and he certainly looks like he has plenty of stamina. He's hugely unexposed having only raced five times under rules but is the right age and should be spot on for this. He stayed on strongly to win a Newcastle novice hurdle by 10l on soft ground (3m) back in January 2011, proving his stamina, and anything he did over hurdles would be a plus for this giant horse. He was off the track for almost a year prior to making his chasing debut for Willie Mullins and he ran a blinder to only just go down to a 135-rated rival in Son Amix, who had the benefit of a recent run. He battled on all the way to the line there and won over 2m4f next time despite looking like he'd enjoy a stronger test of stamina. He clearly handles deep ground as both of those runs came on heavy and he's a solid jumper on the whole. He put in a good round in the Hennessy last time apart from the 3rd last (beaten at the time) but faded to be 8th of 19 in the end. It was a good run considering Hughes has said since that the horse wasn't 100% ready for his return to action and that he's done plenty of work since. He wasn't far behind the favourite for the Welsh National at all and that one had already had a run prior to the Newbury showpiece. The form of the Hennessy looks strong so everything points to a good run from Hughes' runner in my eyes. Like I say, he's a good jumper (touch wood), unexposed, is the right age, has the right sort of weight and should be spot on for this. He appears to stay very well and has no problem on the ground. He also likes to be close up which can help in a race of this nature so essentially looks to have a rock solid chance at 16s. Hughes has said that she is excited about the race and I personally can see why. 16s looks a very fair price to me and if he jumps okay then he should be right there as come towards the business end.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 12.55 Thurles - 1pt win Stop The Clock @ 8/1 (Bet365) This horse has been a touch weak in the betting but perhaps that's due to the strength around the two favourites in here but I don't think the second favourite is a particularly great type at the odds. She's a mare with ability but struggled to win on the flat and might not want a scrap here (not a massive finder off the bridle). It's difficult to assess the unraced favourite but if he doesn't meet expectations then this is wide open. The McManus horse ran a satisfactory debut at Navan when making headway from the rear into mid-division when looking inexperienced and not fully tuned up for the race. That maiden hurdle was substantially better than this one with plenty of nice types at the head of affairs and with that run to bring her on and the fact this is weaker should see her make the frame. She's got a decent pedigree and now she's a workable price she makes appeal here.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Bit of an odd market for this one with the early strength of the favourite and Kathleen Frances which saw my selection drift out to 8/1. However, the scales swung a bit as the race came closer with the fav coming back out and Stop The Clock went off a 6/1 shot. Once we had the fav off the bridle I was pretty confident as Stop The Clock was going well and I wasn't convinced Kathleen Frances would see it out well enough. She came under pressure soon after and the selection did it comfortably. Was much more professional today but like I mentioned prior to the race, I don't think it was very strong. Win's a win, though!

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.40 Musselburgh - 2pts win Ifyouthinkso @ 9/1 (Bet365) I don't like quite a lot of the runners in here - even those at the head of the market - so I feel that Chris Grant's horse represents some nice value against the field. Form questions and ground concerns are rife among plenty of these in my eyes with the favourite far from certain to enjoy the softer ground than he ran on last time out. Similarly, Syndication hasn't shown too much over jumps and was likely flattered in a jumpers bumper last time. The blinkers may well improve the horse but I fancy that they'll have to. Ifyouthinkso ran adequately in a novice hurdle here last time and that run suggests to me he'll be competitive today. The winner is a nice type who went well off 120 recently so it was always going to be a stiff task to beat that one. The runner-up has finished 2nd again to a potentially good sort since and I reckon a stiffer test may suit my selection. He got outpaced but didn't lose any further ground from 2 or 3 out and wasn't battered by Denis O'Regan in the saddle. His pedigree suggests he'll enjoy further cut in the ground where others may not and he's still very unexposed. Coming into handicap company will obviously help given he's rated 101 and I think the bigger field will suit. O'Regan has a 22% strike rate at Musselburgh so the right man is on board and I'm hopeful this horse will go well with fewer doubts over him than the rest of the field.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Finished 3rd. Didn't look likely for a long way but I would have liked to see him given a more positive ride. Mind sort of made up by poor jumps but the way he finished suggests that had O'Regan managed to hold a prominent position he may have gone close. Already looking forward to Soll's effort tomorrow!

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Very excited by tomorrow's racing. Lots of good, competitive stuff to get stuck into. It's a bumper day for the thread too with 4 selections to add to the ante-post punt on Soll. This one comes first as the price is coming in all the time! 2.40 Wincanton - 1pt win Mr Gardner @ 10/1 (Hills) Polly Gundry's horse would have been interesting to me regardless of a market move but all of a sudden has become an attractive betting prospect given the positive signals we have seen early on. He has left Nicky Henderson since running in the Jewson in 2011 and has been off since but both of his wins have come fresh including a near two-month absence. I fancied him for the Jewson after a good 3rd to Medermit and Captain Chris at Sandown but clearly something was amiss as he never went with any fluency and subsequently hasn't been seen since. He's got plenty of ability though so if he has retained it all then he's got a good chance off this mark. He would have gone close at Sandown but for a stumble at the 2nd last and he's a soft ground winner. This heavy is a slight concern because you never know but he's a good jumper, enjoys going right-handed and Tom O'Brien takes the ride. Could well go off a fair bit shorter than this based on the early support and I hope the market has this one correct.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.35 Chepstow - 1pt e/w Zamdy Man @ 20/1 (PP) A rare each-way bet for me seen as eight are supposed to head to post for this juvenile hurdle. This is bound to be reduced before the race but alas. I noted that this horse was a very interesting type to go hurdling in four starts on the flat for Venetia Williams. The yard are in form and this horse must be impressing at home to be sent straight into a Grade 1 here. On the level he looked a real galloping type who relishes soft ground and would stay middle-distances quite comfortably. He is rated in the 80s and that was after performances under conditions which wouldn't be ideal. Found a competitive handicap at Goodwood too sharp given the track/ground but still ran well and would have had plenty to offer if getting his track, trip and ground. That makes him a similar standard of horse on the level to a couple of these who are prominent in the betting and although experience can be crucial in such races, if he jumps well then he's got a big chance of upsetting a few of these in my eyes. He should stay no problem and I think he'll be far from a mug this season. 2.45 Chepstow - 2pts win Fred The Shred @ 8/1 (Bet365) I can only assume that this horse is 8/1 because he comes from a lesser yard and has a 7lb claimer on board as if he was with Henderson or Nicholls he'd be a lot shorter I reckon. Kevin Bishop's horses are in cracking form with two wins and two seconds from his last six runners and he's saddled 2 winners from 11 attempts at Chepstow in the past. One of those wins came when this horse narrowly prevailed in early December and on that must have a solid chance of following up. He showed plenty of ability last season but always looked like he'd enjoy a stiffer test of stamina (made progress late on in all of his hurdle starts) so the fact he got three miles and handicaps on his seasonal return was clearly beneficial. Course form counts for plenty here and he proved he stays well as he rallied to get back up from a decent type. The front two were 12 lengths clear of the remainder so although he's 9lbs higher today you can understand why. That was also his first run for seven months so may well come on for that too and still looks fairly unexposed having had just seven races in his career to date. I have reservations over just how well some of these will see this out and/or handle the ground so I'm very content to be on a horse in form, who is a course winner, handles the ground and stays, at this price. 3.00 Sandown - 1pt win Lord of House @ 12/1 (Bet365) Charlie Mann's horse runs off a featherweight here but I'd rule him out at your peril as he's unexposed and a couple of those at the head of the market look vulnerable to me. Ifyouletmefinish had a hard race just six days ago and fair play if he can come out and compete in this race so soon after but I'll let him do that at 4/1 personally. Softsong has a chance but doesn't appear a strong finisher and that concerns me on the ground. There are a few reasons as to why I think you can give my selection a real chance here and that's because he had obvious excuses on his first two hurdling starts and then won well last time. The races weren't run to suit him and he proved he enjoys a stiff test at Folkestone last time (2m2f, heavy). He also has a habit of jumping right so the track there (and here) was/is more suitable than the two previous. Secondly, his win last time was quite taking. They went quite quick up front and he was the only one who laid up with the pace throughout. All of those who got anywhere near him in the end were held-up and he looked vulnerable between the last two flights. However, he found more and stayed on really strongly to win by 4l. This suggests to me that a strong test over the 2m here will really suit and he could take a bit of passing if showing the same attitude as he did last time.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert +12pts overall now. Mixed day. Soll was given an odd ride I thought. Wouldn't have held him up if you gave me 100 rides on him. Huge, galloping type but probably made little difference anyway. Completed but never dangerous. Not given up on him though. Zamdy Man showed plenty of promise and is one to keep a close eye on. Very stiff introduction and he sweated before the race. Also took a keen hold but came there travelling, jumped adequately but faded. Will improve plenty for that. Fred The Shred battled on well but just couldn't get to the leader. Shame as I thought he was the winner for a while. Mr Gardner put in a promising return. Should have had 3rd but Tom O'Brien wanted to give him the easiest race possible so never asked him. Makes no difference to me but I can imagine some pretty angry each-way players. However, Lord Of House absolutely bolted up. 10 length winner in a competitive handicap from 2lbs out of the weights! I thought his performance last time could be upgraded and he did it so well today. Travelled and jumped superbly and showed a really good turn of foot from the front. Nice type.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.40 Doncaster - 1pt win Toby Belch @ 10/1 (Bet365) Robert Thornton rides Doncaster very well and has an impressive 23% strike rate at the track in the last five years. He also is 1-3 when riding for Henry Daly and although this horse is clearly not straight forward, he would have a decent chance at 10/1 so long as the ground isn't really testing. He does want it on the good side and I don't think he'll find it too bad here with the ground described as good to soft and Doncaster usually drains pretty well. He's a big horse who looks like a chaser and I'm not put off by his absence. To me he appears a horse who needs time between his races and regularly has run good races when fresh. He returned from 18 months off last autumn and shaped really well before fading away and he seemed to hilariously bounce next time when running no race. After that he ran just 10 days later on soft ground and once again failed to fire.] However, his last two starts of the season were much more encouraging. Given three weeks off, he got his good ground and cheekpieces were applied and he was a clear 2nd at Leicester. The front two were well clear and early on in the race he was very lethargic - which ultimately cost him. He ran over 3m5f at Warwick on his final start when beaten 6l so he stays pretty well and I fancy he's a better horse on a more galloping track. He's been running in decent races and I just feel 10/1 is too big to leave for all there are a couple of slight concerns. I'm putting my neck on the line and this will guarantee that he'll be dire but even in this 6 runner field, I don't think he'll be last (as the market suggests) by any means. 3.25 Doncaster - 2pts win Grey Missile @ 7/2 (Bet365) Jeremy Scott's horses are in form and he wouldn't be sending his horses up to Doncaster today for the fresh air alone. I was tempted by one of his other runners but not sure he's much value given he's shown a few issues in his races. This horse isn't totally bombproof but I am keen on his chances. He's only run eight times in his career to date but shaped well in some novice hurdles to suggest that this mark isn't bad. He ran a sound 11l 4th in October off this mark of 110 over hurdles after nearly two years off the track so there's evidence to suggest he's fairly treated and he had a tough task on his chasing debut last time out. The winner has subsequently earned a rating of 145, with the 2nd and 3rd rated in the mid-120s so it was no surprise that my selection could only manage 4th at Taunton. It was also his chase debut so it wasn't too bad an effort. He looked like he'd improve for it having jumped a little cautiously (and made one bad error at 2nd last). With improvement likely, added to the fact that better ground should help and a return to a left-handed track also likely in his favour, I really think he'll take some beating. His last four starts have come at right-handed courses but I'm just not sure it's ideal for him. He's hung left in the past and jumped left at times last time. He didn't seem at ease going round the bends and a more galloping track is what he wants as well. Taking all of that into consideration, so long as he jumps adequately, he's more than capable of getting involved off this mark as he's dropped in grade. He makes even more appeal when factoring in the opposition who largely have questions to answer themselves. Should have improvement in him which cannot be said by some of these and he should be winning off 110 sooner rather than later.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Disappointing that despite being backed into 15/8 from 7/2, Grey Missile failed to pick up and could only manage 4th. However, can't complain with Toby Belch justifying the market support into 11/2. Jumped pretty well and stayed on well to forge clear. Bets: 94 Wins: 14 Placed: 27 Pts Staked: 154pts Pts Returned: 174pts P/L: +20pts

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.45 Catterick - 2pts win Ballymoat @ 12/1 (Bet365) You know a race is bad when the three horses at the head of the market have a combined strike rate of 7-123 and considering that I'm quite happy taking them on with a more unexposed type. Tim Vaughan's horse sneaks in here off a mark of 105 as the top-weight but at 12/1 makes plenty of appeal to me. The trainer's horses are going well and have a pretty good record when sent up north. This is his only runner on the card so I can't believe he's coming here with little chance. You have to take a bit on trust with this horse as the closest he's been to winning a race was when beaten 30 lengths. However, it seems obvious that he needs lowly handicaps and I don't think the testing three mile races he's been competing in have been ideal. His 4th of 10 at Chepstow over 2m4f when beaten those 30 lengths came in a pretty tidy field. The winner has a subsequent rating of 133 (as has the 2nd) so it was always unlikely that he would be able to get involved. He's now the best horse on figures in this race off 105 and he's faded on his last two starts over 3 miles (including in a handicap last time). However, it's easy to look at the bare form and rule him out but he went much better than the result suggests at Wetherby last time. He was one of the very last off the bridle having raced enthusiastically (without taking a fierce hold) and was well up with the leaders at the top of the straight. Just seemed to empty fairly quickly but looked a non-stayer to me rather than anything else. He wasn't given a hard time at all once beaten and subsequently came home beaten 41l on the heavy ground. Sent off at 12/1, he traded at 5.4 in running proving that he went well for a long way and looks like this easier test will suit. His best effort came at around this trip and now given a few weeks off, can come back here and go very well. 2.15 Catterick - 1pt win Posh Bird @ 14/1 (Bet365) When you see that this mare has a strike rate of 2-33 and is 18lbs higher than her only handicap win, she doesn't seem an attractive betting prospect. However, she does have plenty in her favour and it's a sure fire positive that the handicap she won was this contest last year. Okay, so she's a fair bit higher in the weights now but was 2nd off 112 and 118 in good races subsequently (including the Eider when 11l clear of the third off 3lbs lower than today). The Midlands National was a race too far after that but signed off last season with an unlucky 3rd at Kelso over an insufficient 3 miles. She was hampered quite crucially and was ultimately on the back foot from there on in but kept going really well under pressure and closed to within 4l at the line (off this mark). That came over 3 miles but looks much better with her stamina stretched out and shaped well on her seasonal reappearance at Musselburgh last time out - again over three. She was held-up as per usual but got outpaced prior to staying on in the latter stages without Henry Brooke reaching for the stick. It was a pretty useful race really and was always going to be tough given the trip was sharp and she would have needed the run. Shaped as if she'd come on for it and conditions obviously suit today. Brian Hughes is back on board today (finished 2nd twice from three starts on the mare - the other was a decent 4th on a seasonal reappearance). I think it would be foolish to write her off, for all on first looks she appears handicapped to the hilt. I'm pretty confident she'll run a good race and I'll just have to hope it'll be good enough to see her retain her crown.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert A potential +24pts too good to be true as Ballymoat fails by a neck. Desperate. Posh Bird never in it.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.40 Sedgefield - 1pt win Shannina @ 10/1 (PP) This is a poor staying contest full of plodders. Make no mistake, my selection here fits into that category but represents value against the rest of the runners in my eyes. I totally respect the favourite and would be keen on him had he not had such a tough race just eleven days ago. That concerns me but if he doesn't feel it and wins then I'll accept that. At the price, though, and with the concerns over the wellbeing of the second favourite (pulled up and dismounted on hurdling debut), I think it's well worth having a nibble on David Thompson's runner. Hobbs Dream is a very difficult ride and Carmela Maria seems to save its best for Catterick so all in all the selection appears fairly obvious to me. This gelding is slow but is a pretty willing runner and does just stay on and stay on. He shaped really well on his return from a lengthy absence but disappointed on his next two starts. However, his most recent pair of runs have been pretty useful and the 2m4f he competed over at the sharp Fakenham was outrageously short for him. He stayed on well from a mile back but still needed a much stiffer test. 3m2f was much better last time and he looked a threat as he stayed on nicely into 3rd but couldn't go with the leaders and eventually finished third. However, despite being tired (as they all were) he wasn't being closed on by any of the others and he obviously stays well. The form has been franked a bit by the first two there and this looks weaker to me on the face of it. Handles the ground and the trainer's small string seem in the best order for a while so all things considered, with Grant Cockburn a good 7lb claimer, this strong test could be set up for him off a feather weight.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Got the race right to a degree. If the favourite was ready to go again it'd take some beating and so it proved. Hobbs Dream and Carmela Maria poor and beaten by the plodding on Shannina who grabbed 4th. Fact he drifted out to 14/16s suggested it wasn't gonna be his day anyway. Might be able to win a similar race around a more galloping track at some point but clearly very modest.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.05 Kempton - 2pts win Niceonefrankie @ 5/1 (Bet365) Presumably going to be hit with a rule 4 here with the top-weight likely to head to Wetherby, but that horse would be a threat so it's still worth a bet on Venetia Williams' runner here in my eyes. The yard are flying at present and this horse appears to have conditions to suit here. Although he hasn't quite been at his best the last twice, there have been excuses. He fell at the first on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown so it's fair to assume that he'll have needed the run on technically his second start back when running adequately over this c&d. He went well at Musselburgh last time but they didn't go much pace and I think he just got outspeeded there when running a close enough 3rd. He usually runs his best races in the second half of the season and had a fruitful time of the year this time in 2012. He's only 6lbs higher than for an eased-down 3 1/2l win at Newbury last season and this type of race should suit so I think he could prove tough to beat. 2.25 Warwick - 1pt win Holywell @ 6/1 (Bet365) The Package does have an obvious chance but for me is too short in a competitive affair especially at this track as he would prove better on a more testing course. In competition, Jonjo O'Neill's runner looks a rock solid alternative and 6/1 isn't a bad price in my eyes. He's consistent, his form looks solid, and conditions suit. He's never been out of the frame under rules and has finished 2nd the last three times he's encountered the racecourse. His 2nd in May at Uttoxeter may not look anything special really but I thought he showed qualities that will help him here. They went slowly up front and this horse and one other injected some pace just after halfway but eventually he just got outspeeded. I don't think the test was substantial enough and he made a bad error at 2 out which exaggerated the losing margin. He did prove he had the tactical speed for sharp tracks and has subsequently shown he stays well too. He clearly needed further than 2m4f on his staying on seasonal return at Aintree and only found the progressive Trustan Times too good last time out. There were 4 1/2l back to the third in a solid race and the very capable Maurice Linehan negates the 5lb penalty so he's fairly treated and ought to go close again. 2.50 Wetherby - 1pt win Kent Street @ 16/1 (Betfred) I backed Sue Smith's runner over fences last time but he once again failed to deliver in the jumping department. He's now only completed twice from six starts over the larger obstacles and it makes sense to pop him back over hurdles as he does have an engine at a reasonably lowly level. He shaped well at Carlisle in November over an insufficient trip over fences and if you go back to his previous hurdling runs he'd have a shout here. He won on his hurdling debut and then chased home Cinders And Ashes off level weights (miles clear of 3rd). He was outpaced in 4th entered into a handicap on good ground over 2m off a mark of 120 (was a good 0-145 affair) and then stayed on into a 4l 2nd over the same trip in a novice next time out. Hasn't run over hurdles since but looks like 2m4f would be ideal on track evidence and pedigree so fingers crossed he can go well in a more reasonable affair. Jonathan England takes 7lbs off his back and he has a pretty fair record on the horse (4th, 2nd, 5th which came on seasonal return over fences) so I think he's better than a 16/1 shot. 3.50 Kempton - 2pts win Turn Over Sivola @ 13/2 (Hills) You have to respect Forgotten Voice but this will be more testing than small, novice hurdles on good ground and it's plausible if he fails to settle, he will run out of gas late on. Alan King's runner looks a rock solid alternative and I think he's primed to run a cracker here. He was fairly useful in bumpers and his record of 1219 since going over hurdles is strong. The 2nd came to a nice type off the back of a break and the 9th last time was much better than the bare form. He was in 6th going up the hill but faded late on. He seems off a fair mark on his novice exploits and this track should suit. He's a strong-traveller and went as well as most at Cheltenham last time but the combination of the stiff track and heavy ground just found him out. The better ground here and sharper track will play to his strengths - emphasised by the fact he traded at 4, 1.01, 1.62, 2.9 and 2.69 in five of his six career defeats. Will travel around here no problem and should find more when asked than he did last time. The winner made up a large amount of the losing deficit last time as well which exaggerated his performance and I reckon this one will take the beating today.