Racing For Rupert

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Turn Over Sivola pays me back with a nice performance. Improved for the ground.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Farbreaga made a mistake at a critical point which cost him his place before rallying into third up the run-in. Made no difference to the winner though you have to say.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 5.10 Wetherby - 2pts win Desgrey @ 12/1 (Boyles) I could be wrong but I think this is far from a two horse contest with the favourite too short as he hasn't been seeing his races out with much vigour and that always concerns me even if it's a classy type. The second favourite is back from an absence and wasn't in peak form when last seen so is also underpriced. I think Peter Niven's horse can go very well here entering handicap company. He ran a decent 4th on his debut in bumpers (disappointing after a break in that sphere afterwards) and has enough form over hurdles to suggest he can take a race like this. He was 3rd on his hurdling debut at Musselburgh beaten 15l by a horse now rated 135 (and had jumps experience going into the race) and a decent yardstick was in 2nd. He's run like he wants to come back to 2 miles the last twice on softer ground but the sound surface here looks in his favour and it was a decent race he faded in last time to be 4th. The winner is now rated 130 after a handicap win next time out and I think conditions are right today with a mark of 112 looking fair enough. Hopefully can get involved at a nice price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Another second. Slow pace probably played into the hands of the winner. 3 of my last 5 BBOTDs have been 2nd now :sad

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.05 Kempton - 2pts win Glen Moss @ 5/1 (Bet365) Charles Hills' runner was beaten a neck on debut and won his maiden in ready fashion on his two seasonal debuts to date so his reappearance today should hold no fears. This is only his second try on the surface but his first was that maiden victory and ran well in some handicaps subsequently. He was 2nd by a length at Haydock off a mark of 87 (2lbs lower than today) and then ran okay twice on deep ground which probably isn't ideal. His 3rd at York reads very well with the front two now significantly higher in the weights and with his record fresh and conditions to suit, I think he'll go very well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.55 Doncaster - 1pt win Ingleby Spirit @ 18/1 (VC) Richard Fahey's runner gets the opportunity to run off a very decent mark here, especially with 7lbs taken off his back by a capable claimer. His form is a bit in and out but he was understably outclassed in the Betfair hurdle when last seen but had previously run well in a couple of handicaps. A mark of 132 over jumps shows his ability but he has won off 86 on the flat and gets to run off 83 today. I think 1m4f on a flat track and decent ground is ideal for him, for all he hasn't won over the trip yet. One of his 1m2f wins came at Pontefract so he does have stamina and didn't have conditions to suit him on his last two runs on the flat (deep ground, Epsom not ideal, Warwick tight). Richard Fahey's horses are in form and this one can outrun his odds.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.15 Kempton - 1pt win Burke's Rock @ 9/1 (Bet365) Jeremy Noseda's horses are going well and this one has the assistance of William Buick which is an obvious plus. He hasn't been seen since November when nailed close home by Sentaril in a listed event at Lingfield. I think the way races are run at Kempton will suit better as he's more of a galloper than a sprinter and his handicap debut win last year came after a break so I'm not all that concerned about the winter he's had off. He has a solid chance on the figures and looks more than comfortable on polytrack. Altogether if he continues his progression can go well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.30 Doncaster - 1pt win Hitchens @ 16/1 (VC) David Barron's runner isn't exactly being well punted today but at 16/1 can't be left alone as he has plenty of class and runs off what may prove to be a fair mark. Last season he ran well in plenty of group and listed races including a victory at the latter level at Newbury. He was running pretty well in Meydan a few weeks ago before returning to this c&d for his first run of the turf campaign on these shores. He was beaten less than 3l by Jack Dexter but the ground was soft which is far from ideal. He loves to hear his hooves rattle so the sound surface here will suit much better. Is drawn in the middle which is probably a good thing and he's got the touch of class that can see him go very close.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Back in a slump of 2nds :(

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Ingleby Spirit gets the flat season going! Go on lad!

[Karijini]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert

2.55 Doncaster - 1pt win Ingleby Spirit @ 18/1 (VC)

Congrats, was only a matter of time until those 2nds converted into a first!

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Nice work :clap

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Has been a slightly frustrating start to the flat campaign so delighted to get off the mark with a tasty one. Cheers guys :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Burke's Rock staying on well to just fail for third up the straight but was too far back given his lack of a turn of foot as I eluded to. He's usually ridden more prominently and would have gone close had he been I reckon but you take that chance when you back one with a wide draw.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Another place with Hitchens in 3rd. Travelled very well and I thought he was going to win when Gibbons took a quick pull a couple of furlongs out.

[bowles10]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert well done today mate, nice winner

[Stevet1859]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Nice one - won well and a great price BFR :clap

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Cheers Steve. Appreciate the comments.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.45 Wincanton - 1pt win Den of Iniquity @ 16/1 (Sportingbet) Will take a chance on Amy Weaver's charge here who didn't run well last time but that did come when weak in the market and also in a comfortably better race than this. However, if you go back to two starts ago when he unseated rider he was running a big race at Newbury, sticking on well when making a bad error and a repeat of that form would see him go well here. He's getting on a bit but relishes soft ground so the rain is in his favour and this is an easier task than recently. His price is holding up and he's edging down the weights. If it's a going day he's definitely overpriced and fingers crossed we've got him on one of those. 4.40 Market Rasen - 2pts win French Ties @ 4/1 (PP) I'm sweet on the chances of Jennie Candlish's horse here who appears to have everything in his favour this afternoon. He does his winning at this time of year and the ground and trip are ideal for him. Crucially he showed more last time in a better race than this and has dropped down to a good mark. The yard were out of form badly whilst this one has been running this season but they're going much better now and that's an obvious plus point. He's saddled top weight to victory in the past so I have few concerns about that and dropping in grade off a decent mark and seemingly coming back into form, I think he's got a big chance in this.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Aaaaand French Ties 2nd having traded at 1/10. Lovely jubbly!

[cpo]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Great winner yesterday mate!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.20 Cheltenham - 1pt win The Romford Pele @ 16/1 (Hills) Rebecca Curtis' charge seems overpriced to me as there's a fair chance he just didn't get home last time over over the extended three miles at Newbury. His effort at Ffos Las prior to that saw him run in a decent race which has subsequently been franked by Medinas and Peckhamecho didn't run too badly at Aintree last time out. That also came on heavy ground and for all this horse won a novice race on a similar surface I think he'll be more at home on better ground and probably won in spite of that rather than because of it. Prior to that he had good form on a decent surface including a solid 7th in the Cheltenham champion bumper and chased home the very useful Court Minstrel and then beat a horse now rated 124. He runs off 128 today on ideal ground and over an ideal distance so ought to improve on recent form and his mark doesn't look restrictive. Nice price. Good day's racing so may be one or two more but will look when I wake up.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Was very well backed but only midfield ultimately. Should be more tomorrow but just posting this up first as she stands out at the price. 4.30 Ripon - 1pt win Queens Revenge @ 25/1 (Bet365) Tim Easterby's runner is the outsider of the party but showed plenty of smart form at 2 and I don't think she had the races drop right for her last season. She won here on debut (defying greenness to finish strongly to lead close home) before being an unlucky 4th in the Hilary Needler next time out at Beverley. Seemed not to cope with the soft ground at Newmarket on her final start that year and came back over longer trips last campaign. She ran an eyecatching race over a mile on good to soft on her reappearance effort at Musselburgh considering I still see her as a decent ground sprinter and that bodes well for her return this time around and she ran in much tougher races than this on soft ground after that. Drops markedly in grade here and back into a 6f race on good ground. That will suit and her runs fresh haven't been bad. Has to bounce back a little but I'm sure she's better than a 25/1 shot and therefore we'll side with her today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.35 Cheltenham - 3pts win Tara Rose @ 5/1 (PP) I don't personally understand the price of this horse and I hope the bookies have it wrong and not me! Has been running really well in soft ground chases but three of her four wins have come on good ground and she simply seems a better horse when getting a sound surface. That makes her chasing exploits even more impressive in my eyes and was only beaten 1 1/4l by Violin Davis two starts back at Bangor over this trip. My selection was in receipt of 3lbs that day yet gets a stone from that one today yet remains 1.5pts behind in the betting. Nigel Twiston-Davies' runner won well back at that venue over shorter last time out so comes into this in great form and conditions will suit her better today. Marie Des Anges is respected but this is different ground for her and her form hasn't been franked particularly so is well worth taking on with the value bet here.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.20 Cheltenham - 1pt win Connectivity @ 14/1 (Hills) It's hard to trust Sam Winner nowadays so is too short for all he could be well-treated for when he puts it all together. Dr Richard Newland's runner sticks out like a sore thumb to me at the prices if he's ready to go again after Aintree but has twice run well since returning from a long absence and shouldn't be a 14/1 shot in this field in my opinion. When last seen in the spring of 2011 he was bolting up in handicaps off 118 and 125 and is able to run off 130 today having not been seen until last month subsequently. That came at Uttoxeter when running a very promising race after the absence. He stayed on well to be a distant 4th behind a handicap blot at Aintree but the stiffer track will suit today (has form staying on over three miles on testing tracks). This remains very competitive but I expect to see him given a more positive ride this afternoon considering how he got outpaced before finishing fairly well last time and if he's ready to roll again, he ought to go close.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.55 Newmarket - 2pts e/w Havana Beat @ 17/2 (VC) I accept that the favourite may be tough to beat but odds on is far too short in my eyes as this is a 3f step up in trip, for all it may suit, and I wasn't totally keen with his head carriage when winning here when last seen. He didn't seem the most willing to the eye and as strange as it sounds he travelled almost too well for me over the 7f trip to slightly concern me being stepped up to 1m2f today. I'm not saying he won't win, or doesn't deserve to be favourite, but the value all lies with Andrew Balding's charge in my eyes. His official rating of 85 is nonsense really so don't take that on face value. He only just failed over 7f on debut but won decisively in the end on his second start at Sandown over a mile. I like the fact that he was under pressure before the two leaders but stayed on strongly in the closing stages to get on top and win going away by nearly 3 lengths at the finish. He appeared to outstay his rivals and certainly will relish this step up in trip. The fact that he did so with the runner-up subsequently scoring over this trip to be rated 95 and the two other of the horses who've run again since from the leading group that day are now rated 85 and 78 (the latter likely to prove better - got handicap mark after running after a break). That suggests my selection is far better than an 85-rated horse and the step up in trip looks sure to send him into the 100s I think. Another plus is that Balding has his horses going well in the early stages of the season and John Gosden's are just looking like they may need the run a bit more. Altogether I think 17/2 is a knocking each-way price and I think he can upset the favourite (and the rest) too. Will be disappointed if he isn't in the frame at the very least.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Mixed day. Tara Rose won at odds of 9/4 in the end...my good e/w bet was 4th, Connectivity ran well in 4th and Queens Revenge ran a half-decent race at a big price. Two runners today, one on the flat and one over jumps.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.15 Newbury - 1pt win Petaluma @ 12/1 (Sportingbet) Mick Channon's runner looks a bit overpriced here as she's got some rock solid form last year, has no issues with the conditions here and still has scope for progression at the age of 4. She stays two miles really well and I think the track will suit her down to the ground here as she's a galloping type who usually finishes off her races in nice fashion. Since up to trips around two miles on her final three starts of 2012 she was a close 3rd at Pontefract to Lieutenant Miller and although she's not quite as well off at the weights today, that was a pretty stiff task taking on the older horses when she was just 3. I'm hopeful that she'll have strengthened up further over the winter and this piece of form gives her a good chance here. Prior to that she chased home a nice type and finally got off the mark when last seen at Bath. She's versatile when it comes to ground and effectively is running off 1lb lower than that win with Charles Bishop's 5lb claim negating her 4lb penalty. All things considered, so long as she's fit enough on her return, she looks sure to run her race and therefore is well worth chancing at a double-figure price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.25 Ayr - 2pts win Karinga Dandy @ 12/1 (PP) Posted this last time out:

2.10 Carlisle - 2pts win Karinga Dandy @ 6/1 (PP) Sue Smith trains the front two in the market and despite there not being much between the two at the prices, I am surprised that this horse is not the outright favourite for the contest. It is true that he does look like he'll stay further and was doing good late work at Wetherby last time over 2m4f but this track is more of a test which can suit and his form does look particularly strong. I think he's very fairly treated and so long as he doesn't get too far back in this, I think he'll take a lot of beating for all this may not be his optimum trip. He won a point to point prior to going hurdling and his two runs have been very solid. He was 2nd over 2m1f at Sedgefield when beaten 1 3/4l by a decent type (11l back to the third) and it was a hot race he contested at Wetherby last time. The winner won again at Ascot next time (beating a good sort who won next time out) to get a rating of 142, the second won next time to be rated 136 and the third was 2nd in a handicap and then 2nd in a Grade 2 to be rated 135. My selection today runs off 114 with 3lbs taken off his back. This is obviously far easier (0-115 handicap) and this track can suit a bit more. He could also be made more use of to utilise his stamina and I just feel his mark is very exploitable. The yard are going perfectly well and I'd be surprised if this one wasn't bang there.

He disappointed me here but drifted before the race in the market and never really travelled with a great deal of fluency (without being awfully off the bridle) so I was concerned from early on. It does seem pretty obvious that he wants this step up to three miles (dam won over 3m1f) and the track should suit fairly well also. I'm willing to forgive him that effort based on the drift and the fact that his two previous pieces of form are strong. The ground was on the lively side there as well which probably contributed to the feeling that they were always going a little bit too quick for comfort so the easing surface also looks in his favour and Mr C Bewley is replaced by Ryan Mania this afternoon. There seems to be some market confidence behind her so far today and if that continues then he becomes even more interesting.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Lacking in time so short posts I'm afraid. 2.40 Ayr - 1pt win Une Artiste @ 10/1 (Bet365) Although she won two starts back at Sandown over 2m4f it was a very steadily-run affair and I had my reservations over her definitely staying over 2m4f at Cheltenham last time out in the mares' hurdle. She went very well for a long way but faded late on and I think she's better at two miles to be honest. They went a very good gallop that day which tested the stamina and I think she got caught out. Had been in rock solid form this season prior to that and ought to be competitive off this mark with conditions to suit. I have issues with those at the head of the market and think she'll go well.