Racing For Rupert

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert One place (2/1) all week. 3 more chances.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Make that two places. Let's have a party.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Looks like absolutely no returns from four days of Cheltenham. Ma Filleule comes there travelling to dispute on the final one down the back but flattens it and lands flat footed. Probably made no difference as she didn't pick up again but certainly cost momentum at crucial moment. All done to Rody but if he loses I think it's time to go into hiding. Two places from about 20 selections? Utterly embarrassing.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Rody forgets how to jump. A lot of hard work this season blown in four days. Two places - TWO!! At 2/1 and 4/1!! Not like I've just been picking big prices either. Talk about gutted.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Bets: 182 Wins: 23 Placed: 50 Pts Staked: 302pts Pts Returned: 318pts P/L: +16pts

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Time to forget Cheltenham existed. These Saturday puzzles should be easier to solve you'd hope. Here goes nothing... 2.15 Kempton - 2pts win Ourmanmassini @ 11/2 (VC) Posted this before his run last time out:

2.10 Plumpton - 1pt win Ourmanmassini @ 8/1 (Bet365) Leviathan's latest run sets the standard but I'm not particularly keen on horses who don't see their races out brilliantly over hurdles and I don't think he's worthy of a bet at 5/4. That came in a small field last time when given a good ride and considering his all time strike rate of 3-29 and the furthest he's won over is a mile on the flat makes him vulnerable at the finish in my opinion. There are a few who could put it down to him but Suzy Smith's runner makes most interest to me as he's a bumper winner and ran pretty well here on hurdling debut last time out. Obviously should improve for the experience but it was a hot race with Mr Watson 1st and the runner-up looking smart as well (franked form next time) and my selection wasn't beaten far by those behind the main two (and a respectable 16l defeat to the classy winner). He made a mistake at the last which cost him a length or two as well and I don't think the ground was ideal, either. Dr Massini's have a better record on better ground and this horse has an action which suggests that the better ground on offer this afternoon will help. Any improvement on his hurdling debut (and I see a few reasons why this is likely) should see him competitive here and I'd sooner back at 8/1 than the favourite at 5/4.

He ran really well on this occasion, looking a likely winner for a while but made a shocking error at 2 out, after which he swerved to the right and cost himself a lot of momentum. He was only beaten 2 1/2l in the end and was eased in the final strides in a race with a couple of decent types in 1st and 2nd. The 2nd (hampered by my selection) hacked up next time out so there's some substance to the race and Suzy Smith's runner would have been closer had he not made such an error. The better ground (albeit rain forecast) will help again today and he's 4th favourite behind two horses making their hurdling debut and one who regularly misses the start by a long way. On that basis he looks value at 11/2 and certainly should be going close.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 3.05 Ffos Las - 3pts win Valoroso @ 7/2 (Hills) I am very sweet on the chances of Richard Woollacott's runner in this race as he's vying for favouritism with a horse who isn't a great jumper and has form in the book that looks rock solid in the context of this. This is his first handicap having run in three novice chases and would have won the second of those had he not capsized when well clear at the last. Either side of that he was 3rd to two 139-rated rivals at Exeter on his first run for ages under rules and first run for his new trainer. He had little chance of getting involved there so that can be excused and his run last time was good. Although he unseated his rider at 3 out, and was beaten at the time, he wasn't too far off the leaders and the way he travelled through the race suggested the drop back in trip would suit. Other than the 129-rated winner, he travelled best of the rest and didn't jump badly - he just slithered on landing when coming down. The step back in trip will help, he's fine on soft ground and going handicapping off a mark of 115 looks perfectly fair. Micheal Nolan takes off 5lbs and I think he has a monumental chance today.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 3.40 Ffos Las - 1pt win Enter Milan @ 8/1 (Boyles) Plenty has to be taken on trust with John Flint's runner as he hasn't been sighted on a racecourse for 289 days but this is another race where I don't like those at the head of affairs (poor strike rate of favourite, flattered recent winner and a horse unproven at trip). Even though this one has been off the track for so long, he does show good form when fresh and his novice form does look reasonable. On his hurdling debut over 3 miles he chased home the strong-staying Deireadh Re (rated 138 over hurdles) with the pair clear and and then he beat a 118 horse, a 135 horse and a now 142 horse on his next start. It would be naive to take that form literally but even still, a mark of 120 for his handicap debut today could be lenient. Stepping back in trip is a bit of a concern given how well he seemed to stay on over three miles but the testing ground will help in that respect and although he disappointed when last seen, the fact he hasn't been sighted since suggests something was amiss that day. A return to the form of his first two hurdling runs would see him go very close today and I just hope he's fit enough to do himself justice.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 4.00 Kempton - 1pt win Prince of Dreams @ 8/1 (Skybet) Ed de Giles' runner has been in good form of late and I think he can be excused for disappointing somewhat at Doncaster last time out. That was a 0-145 race which is better than today's 0-130 contest and I don't think that track is ideal for him. He seems better at tighter tracks and a lot of his better runs have come at right-handed venues. The slightly easier course should be in his favour today and his three runs prior to that effort would give him a rock solid chance of scoring this afternoon. He fell when 2l clear at the last at Warwick back in December and then split well-handicapped rivals at Leicester - the winner proving 7 lengths too strong off 15lbs higher since and the 3rd (beaten 10l by my selection) won off 7lbs higher last time out. De Giles' runner is 10lbs higher today but won by 6l at Musselburgh two starts back (beating a horse who ran soundly in the Grand Annual yesterday) and Leicester is probably a bit testing for him too. He's gone well for Liam Treadwell on several occasions in the past so him jumping back aboard is no bad thing and he looks overpriced at 8/1 to me.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Faller at last (in 3rd and prob held), winner (yes, a winner!!), one poor, and a 2nd. Seems to be the typical Saturday thing - one winner and a few closer calls. Better than the week we've just had but only a relatively small profit.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Was going to start a new thread for the flat action but doesn't seem necessary. Will add flat bets into this thread with a separate bank starting with 100pts. Exactly the same method as the jumps. Would have been nice to go into this new season on the back of a really good NH campaign and although it hasn't been bad, the Cheltenham Festival ruined the party a little bit. Still, got Aintree to try and put that right in the not-too-distant future and fingers crossed we can get the ball rolling early on with the flat action. Likely bets at Doncaster but waiting until after the 11am inspection before sorting everything out.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.35 Doncaster - 1pt win Smart Spender @ 10/1 (VC) I do think the favourite here has a good chance but is too short, as per usual for a Jeremy Noseda runner and if Jo Hughes' charge was trained by a more fashionable trainer then I'm sure he wouldn't be a 10/1 shot in here. He was sent off at 66/1 on his debut at Wolverhampton but put in a very eyecatching performance. He was slowly away before taking a fierce hold. He came through into midfield quite nicely on the turn and kept on under a tender ride. Wasn't dangerous but suggested if more was made of him then he could be a nice type. He put that theory into practice at Southwell next time out, bouncing out much better and knowing his job. He showed speed and then I was impressed by the manner that he put the race to bed. He was in the firing line throughout but forged on well under pressure (unlikely to win this on the bridle) and I like how he found under pressure. Was only going further away at the finish to suggest this more demanding 6f won't be an issue and the runner-up has won a maiden and a handicap off 70 on his next two starts. My selection runs off 80 today, his sire has a better record with his progeny on turf (especially soft ground) than on the all-weather and if he's fit to go then he must have a good shout. Jo Hughes doesn't have a brilliant record with 2yos but when they win they're usually decent so there's a decent chance this one can prove to be a useful type.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 5.20 Doncaster - 2pts win The Osteopath @ 12/1 (Bet365) I have a soft spot for John Davies' runner in this race and think he holds every chance of landing the spoils this afternoon. Flat tracks, soft ground and long straights play to his strengths and although he's ten years of age now he still looks capable of winning races off this mark if last season is anything to go by. He won on his reappearance last year at Thirsk off 2lbs higher than today but after that seemed to find trouble on a regular basis off marks in the high 70s. He was often unlucky but this has seen his mark come down and it was probable that he'd just had enough racing for one campaign by the end (still running respectably). He's been freshened up now which is no bad thing at all given he regularly runs well after a break (as aforementioned at Thirsk last year) and he will thrive in these conditions. His six most recent victories have all come in fields containing double-figures of rivals so that's another plus and the fact he's being nibbled at in the betting bodes well to suggest he's still got plenty of life left in him for a good performance. This is wide open so I'm happy siding with a horse who will be at ease with conditions and should run his race.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.30 Curragh - 1pt win Shifting @ 11/1 (Hills) Looks tailor-made for this race I think really given her running style and she's lightly-raced enough to be able to improve and take this. Her mark has risen but was a solid 2nd last time out which possibly flattered her but on that her mark of 87 looks fair enough with the capable Shane B Kelly taking an extra 5lbs off her back. That makes her more appealing as a bet and her only previous start in blinkers saw her run out a resounding winner. They were left off last time and she didn't look the easiest. It's a definite plus that they're back on and she does stay on really well under pressure. A good pace will help if it turns into a test and the virtually straight mile will enable her to find her stride and make this a galloping test. She's being backed and that suggests she's ready to go on her first start for a while. This will suit more than her races to date in my eyes and should go well.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Got a couple for later on at Wetherby. Gotta rush out but should be up around 2.15pm (3.55 and 4.30 races if prices hold).

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.55 Wetherby - 1pt win Green Wizard @ 15/2 (VC) Sue Smith's form is a concern but this horse is overpriced here on the back of a no show last time out but he simply wasn't himself there and the jockey reported he had finished distressed. If he's none the worse for that experience then a big run here could be on the cards. Prior to that he ran well twice here on soft ground - finishing a close 2nd in a novice (third won a handicap off 110 since) and my selection runs off 110 here. He was then a decent 4th in a race that wasn't run ideally and a return to that sort of form sees him go close here. I have issues with plenty of these even in a small field and he looks the one at the prices.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.30 Wetherby - 1pt win Dermatologiste @ 7/1 (PP) Caroline Bailey is among the winners at the moment and this horse shaped well on his return from a year off at Bangor in gruelling conditions last time out. She moved up through the field but weakened in the marathon contest but went well for a long way and travelled very wide throughout at that sharpish track. That should have set her up for this and she's been given a breather since to ensure she's ready. She won over that c&d at Bangor in 2011 and is back down to that mark now and does stay very well which helps. The yard were a little bit out of form after she won that race so her two efforts after that can be marked up slightly and she ran well enough last time to suggest she'll go well here with fitness back on her side. The favourite is tough to beat on paper but won a weak race last time and take him out and it's 5/1 the field. 7s looks fair and I'm confident of a good run.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Would have been nice to land the double. Green Wizard finished 2nd having held every chance up the straight. Good effort. Dermatologiste needed rousting all the way round but answered all of Andrew Thornton's questions and won gamely.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Not got too much time again so will put 2 up now (2.20 and 2.40) and will post the other 2 (price dependent) in a couple of hours (4.20, 4.55).

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.40 Wolverhampton - 1pt win Lord Golan @ 14/1 (Bet365) Obviously a little wary of backing horses from this yard where the money often speaks volumes but will watch the market with interest but if this one is backed then taking 14/1 could look a godsend. Also could look silly if he's tailed off at 25s but here goes. Lightly raced with just five runs to date but has shown some hints of ability over shorter on the all-weather but looks like he wants a good gallop over 1m4f on this surface. He ran well behind a decent type after a break on his final maiden start and quickly was turned out for his handicap debut. He was held up off a steady pace and was never involved there but both the way the race was run and the quick turnaround probably contributed there. Has had a break and comes here now with conditions hopefully to suit a bit better. Cathy Gannon takes the mount on her only ride of the day and fingers crossed he can build on the promise shown two starts back with the cheekpieces on. 2.20 Ffos Las - 2pts win Stony Road @ 9/2 (Bet365) Think the form of the two at the head of the market is pretty thin to be honest and much prefer the John Flint runner on handicap debut. Has shaped really well over shorter in novice races behind nice types and relished this trip at Taunton last time out. Couldn't get involved behind a nice type but stayed on and that sharp track wouldn't have been ideal. Three miles at this venue should be much more up his street and he looks off a fair mark. The one to beat in my book.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.20 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Exceedexpectations @ 5/1 (VC) Watt Broderick did run well the other day but this is a quick turnaround and also the 1m2f here is quite different to that at Lingfield and he still has to totally prove himself at the trip for me to be backing at 2/1. Ishikawa looks sure to run well but could be just about in the grip of the handicapper now and I think the price of Conor Dore's runner is quite generous. He's only had two runs for his new yard and those have both been over this c&d. He was beaten a length in third two starts back when racing keenly in a small field before running on and won comfortably last time out. He's 5lbs higher here but a more generous gallop would see him even better so I think he's still off a fair mark and Luke Morris has been firing in the winners of late.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.55 Wolverhampton - 1pt win Tooley Woods @ 12/1 (Hills) Tony Carroll is another trainer where I'd like to see support in the market so I'm a little bit wary of backing this horse at 12s given she opened up at more like 8/1 but there's still time for the money to come and she is simply too big a price for me to leave alone. She joined this yard after winning a seller in August and has shaped well in three starts since. She was desperately unfortunate at Brighton on her debut for Carroll when travelling well and coming through to challenge when being snatched up and immediately not persisted with. Was eased right down so the 18l defeat can safely be ignored. She ran on to take 3rd at Bath over a quick mile (fast ground) next time out (2nd won next time out) before being off the track for a while and shaped better than the bare result here last time after a break. She travelled very well but again suffered from a lack of luck in the run but ultimately didn't pick up when clear. Is entitled to come on for that and this is a very weak race. Conditions suit and I reckon she'll go well if she's ready for this.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Very poor from first two. No huge surprise given the market. They'll pop up when the signals are right.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert good luck trying to fathom the Violet Jordan stable. I just avoid them like the plague, never run two races alike.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert

good luck trying to fathom the Violet Jordan stable. I just avoid them like the plague' date=' never run two races alike.[/quote'] Yeah not ideal. Think that one will go in at some point but the money will be down when it does. Exceedexpectations drifts to 7/1 and leads everywhere but the last 50 yards. Shame. Fingers crossed we can save the best 'til last with Tooley Woods.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Again you like to see support for Carroll so wasn't as optimistic seeing her go off at 11s. Horribly messy race too but wasn't going to be her day anyway. Again will keep an eye out for her when the market is more positive.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Tomorrow's hiatus gives chance to look at a big Saturday in great detail so fingers crossed I can make it count!

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Mad day of racing. Have got 5 picked out and they'll be posted now. Only shortish posts I'd imagine. Shattered!

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 1.20 Doncaster - 1pt win Imperial Djay @ 33/1 (Skybet) I looked at this race for quite a while and simply nothing stood out to me as a horse who could be well-handicapped and potentially better than the grade. I could be wrong but it seems a pretty standard race so would not surprise me if a seasoned handicapper won this and therefore Ruth Carr's runner off a fair mark does appeal, for all this trip is on the sharp side. He runs off 88 today which is well within his grasp thanks to some poor efforts at the back end of last season. However, that's no unusual thing as his form from July onwards in a calendar year reads 547676896694632005000360380005. On the other hand, his form between March and the end of June reads 3400407563495431618412127431187081054352110. This suggests he's a much better horse early on in the season and he's proved himself capable of going well fresh too. He can handle some give in the ground and should be finishing to good effect. Hopefully he doesn't get too far behind but a long straight should suit and his two wins last season came off higher marks than this. At the prices he appeals to me and is worth a small bet. 1.55 Doncaster - 1pt win Frog Hollow @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes) This horse couldn't have put in a much more promising debut for his new yard and the new season at Wolverhampton recently. He's joined Milton Bradley and this type of race looks ideal for him. He ran over 6f on his reappearance which is very much on the sharp side. He was drawn widest of all and outpaced during the contest but finished really nicely without the rider reaching for his whip and finished a closing 6th of 11. He ran some good races last season but he doesn't do anything too quickly (which makes his Wolves run look even better) so often found one or two too good. This is where I think a bit of give in the ground helps as he was probably just done for a bit of toe on fast ground at Haydock, Newmarket and Leicester last season. He also had trouble in the run at the latter and was first on his past of the track at Newmarket. His reappearance run last season (good to soft) reads extremely well in 3rd (front two now rated 16lbs and 25lbs higher than that day) and his other efforts with soft in the title suggests he can go on it (won at Salisbury and poor showing at Ascot perhaps down to application of blinkers). I think some give can help him from being outpaced and his more style of staying on relentlessly without doing much quickly should be more effective on this ground. The step up to a mile is a big plus and he should be competitive off this mark. 3.05 Doncaster - 2pts win Eshtibaak @ 8/1 (Bet365) John Gosden holds a strong hand in this and although this horse is lightly-raced and inexperienced, he looks more than capable of winning handicaps off 93 and I reckon he's well-treated enough to take this. The draw issue is likely to be negated with all runners congregating up the centre but most of the pace seems to come from medium to high draws so wouldn't be too concerned with this one's berth in stall 20. He showed plenty of promise on debut before scoring well after a break at Nottingham. He again won after an absence at Lingfield before suffering from bad luck in the run at Kempton on his fourth start (hampered, lost place, came wide, stayed on, not much room again). That also came quickly after his Lingfield effort and was off for four more months afterwards. The race at Ascot was a mess and he had nowhere to go on the rail throughout the straight and looked to have gallons left in the tank at the finish but he had no room at all but surely would have gone close with some luck. Runs off 1lb lower today and although he drops back in trip a test over a mile can suit. He obviously goes well fresh, Paul Hanagan chose this one last week (can't ride today) and if he handles soft (slow time of maiden win suggests ground was soft at Nottingham) then he doesn't seem to have many chinks in his armour. So long as he isn't a different horse then he'll surely win races off this mark and I hope he does so today.

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Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.50 Haydock - 1pt win Sir Frank @ 14/1 (Bet365) Posted this when he ran two starts back:

2.30 Huntingdon - 1pt win Sir Frank @ 12/1 (Hills) I am a lot more worried, however, about the weakness of David Pipe's runner in the betting but he had a relatively unfancied second-string go in the other day and I'm hoping that the ease in the market is not significant to his chances. On form I'd say he looks to have a strong chance here. He did nothing wrong over hurdles in 2010 - winning three and finishing second once - and again ran creditably in a handicap after a lay-off in 2011. Was off for almost two years prior to naturally needing the run at Doncaster last November and was only beaten 8 3/4l last time in a race that has worked out. His best form has come on decent ground so the heavy there wouldn't have been ideal. The ground is a bit better here (if still not ideal) and the step up in trip shouldn't be a concern on pedigree. Dropped 3lbs for that solid effort last time and again I'm not a fan of those at the head of the market so I'll take a risk that the market has this one wrong.

He went agonisingly close here, pulling clear with the winner and only going down narrowly. The winner has won well again since so the form stacks up and although my selection disappointed at Newbury last time he had excuses. He was sent out just 8 days after a hardish race to try and take advantage of the same mark and he made errors at crucial points and I just think he'll be better now he's had time to recover. He seems to like a sounder surface best too so the better ground here should help and there are races to be won with him. This is competitive but a slight improvement on his run two starts back should see him go well.