Racing For Rupert

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2nd 2nd 2nd 3rd Boom.

[robertob]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Unlucky mate... another day they'll go in... still great tipping to have four from four placed Rupert! :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert

Unlucky mate... another day they'll go in... still great tipping to have four from four placed Rupert! :ok

Yeah. Frustrating but as long as they run well I at least know I'm doing something right!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.00 Lingfield - 2pts win Farbreaga @ 14/1 (Bet365) I personally can't fathom why this horse is 14/1 for this dire race personally but so long as there isn't something I'm missing, I'm more than happy to take the price and is worthy of a decent bet given the value. You can never be too certain in such weak affairs but this one definitely has the credentials to take this. He is the top-weight but the very capable Jeremiah McGrath takes off 5lbs to ease the burden and his form isn't too bad. I find issues with all of these really - Dalyrymple is honest enough but not convinced he ideally wants 2m4f on heavy and doesn't win often. Stamina also looks a concern with Cuckoo Rock so I think there can be an upset. Jamie Poulton's runner did at least get his head in front two starts back and for all it's true he had the run of a very bad race it was a win and it was his first run for a while so perhaps needed it anyway. Either side of that he was staying on into midfield in stronger races (2m1f and 2m4f) and looks like a testing 2m4f is ideal. He made all when winning on his reappearance so on his last run it seems plausible that he'll go back to racing more prominently which looks sure to help. He was beaten 42l last time but was 7th of 17 and was off 2lbs higher without a claimer on board. He's effectively 7lbs lower here and the winner won by 17l to exaggerate the margin. That one has subsequently placed twice including off 130 last time. The race that my selection competed in at Sandown was full of types rated between 110-120 so it was a lot better than this race where his highest-rated rival runs off 92. He's in decent heart, handles conditions, has won recently and drops markedly down in grade, so looks a crazy price to me with questions hovering above many of these.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Nice to get a big one on the board as the crazily-priced Farbreaga wins comfortably by 10l despite a bit of a worry at the last. Still disappointed by the weekend's placed efforts but can't complain at all really. Bets: 102 Wins: 15 Placed: 32 Pts Staked: 166pts Pts Returned: 204pts P/L: +38pts

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.25 Newbury - 1pt win Monkerty Tunkerty @ 11/2 (Hills) This successful pointer (5 wins, 4 seconds from 11 starts) hacked up in a hunter's chase back in January of last year from the high-class Bradley and although not taking that form overly literally he's clearly a horse with plenty of ability. He's a pretty solid chaser in all regards really as he travels, jumps and stays well. He put all to good use when a 6l winner at Wincanton last time out and although the runner-up had a chance when making a mistake at the last, I fancy my selection would have won anyway. He's gone up 7lbs for that but beat a rock solid rival there and conditions suit here. He enjoys soft ground and the track should play to his strengths with a long straight with a jumping test up it. Only faded late on at Bangor on his seasonal reappearance and looks sure to give it a bold shot from near the front under Will Kennedy. It looks competitive on the surface but not sure quite a few of these can win this and of those towards the head of the market, I like this one as a rock solid selection to run a very good race and therefore will take a chance on him to win at 11/2.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.50 Wincanton - 1pt win Leeroar @ 10/1 (VC) This is both Jo Davis and Timmy Murphy's only runner of the day and looks very interesting upped in trip for his handicap debut. He's competed behind some nice types in novice events and appears fairly treated off a mark of 105 entering the handicap sphere. Having been well beaten on debut he subsequently fell but showed more the last twice in races won by high-class flat performers Poet and Whispering Gallery. He wasn't disgraced on either occasion and shaped really well at Leicester last time over a mile. Was only beaten 12l and that includes the fact he made a mistake at the last and wouldn't have been far off competing for 3rd had he met it right. If you take the first three out of the equation, he pulled nicely on from the next two horses who he was competing with at 2 out to suggest that he had some more in the locker. On that evidence, along with stamina in his pedigree from his dam's side, suggests that this hike in trip of 6f can do him some good. He's clearly not the speediest but came home fairly well under a tender ride last time and now off a low-weight can go close in this company. Improving with every run and if he gets home then he shouldn't be far away.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert (should be "over 2 miles", not a mile)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Shorter posts today as shorter notice. Apologies: 2.10 Ayr - 2pts win Nuts N Bolts @ 7/2 (Hills) On the face of it, it looks like Lucinda Russell's horse has been disappointing over fences so far but I think you can take plenty out of his defeat last time when the tongue-tie was fitted for the first time. He travelled pretty well and jumped much better than on his chasing debut (obvious excuse at Carlisle) but just seemed to get tired on the heavy ground and the 3m1f trip. Coming back down in trip ought to help and he looks to me like he wants better ground. He has performed on soft but think he'll be even better on a sounder surface. Although this remains soft today it isn't as bad as last time out and now the trip is definitely okay and his jumping seems more assured, he can go very close in this tight field. 2.40 Ayr - 1pt win Cool Baranca @ 25/1 (Bet365) This may look a bit of a barmy bet as the outsider of a field of five but this horse is fairly treated and although there are a few issues to contend with here I still don't believe 25/1 is reflective of her chances. The top two in the betting need respecting and may well dominate this but Top Wood was probably flattered last time when passing beaten/tired horses in desperate ground at Haydock and his run previous to that hasn't worked out great. The 2nd favourite here is up 12lbs for winning a much easier race and may well be harshly-treated too. The third favourite is another with a good chance on form but fitness is taken on trust. For these reasons I'm happy siding with the outsider. The mare has twice won off marks either the same or higher than this and although this 2m4f on soft ground is a question mark, they're unlikely to go a mad gallop and she can get home (stayed well on flat). Her record suggests strongly that she thrives on racing and her best performances come shortly after a previous run. That is an excuse on two of her last three hurdles runs (along with strong races) and she wasn't disgraced on the run in the middle when staying on into midfield in a hot race on good ground at Aintree. Seems happiest with give in the ground and has run three weeks ago. This race isn't as strong or have as many threats as usual and the smaller field can allow her not to get too far behind. Many of her wins have come in fairly small fields and although I'd be happier if this was over 2 miles, she still looks to be better than a 25/1 shot at 2m4f. 3.10 Ayr - 1pt win Rich Lord @ 16/1 (Bet365) A lot has to be taken on trust with Ferdy Murphy's horses seemingly not firing on all cylinders but his last runner got its head in front and this one ran too badly to be true last time. It's plausible that a hard race at Newcastle three weeks prior still had its effects at Haydock but he's pretty consistent on the whole and suggests he can bounce back quickly. Three miles probably is testing enough anyway and the return to 2m4f on soft ground appears an ideal combination. Hopefully the yard have turned a corner now. He's finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd on his last three starts over the trip with the 2nd coming on ground too quick and the 3rd on his seasonal reappearance. If he's over his recent exertions I'd expect a better run than a 16/1 shot for all his jumping can be an issue.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Nuts N Bolts won well - jumped great. Got the main two beaten in the 2.40 but Emma Sayer thought it would be nice to pretend she was in a one horse race on Cool Baranca by not participating with the field, which is nice to see. No heads turned at 25/1 and unlikely to have won anyway but you can't tell me that a horse who recently won on the flat at Musselburgh can't get within 8l of the main field over 2m4f at Ayr over hurdles. Especially when half of her wins have come when up with the pace! Anyway, profit for the day with one to run, fingers crossed.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Still having too many seconds. Rich Lord occupies that spot today. +5pts and nice to have some jumps action again. Fingers crossed for Cheltenham.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Bets: 106 Wins: 16 Placed: 33 Pts Staked: 171pts Pts Returned: 213pts P/L: +42pts

[Karijini]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Well done. Seconds still mean your on the right track and with decent odds like the ones you've been getting you only have to one or two come in to make quite a difference. Great thread, keep up the great work!

[Karijini]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Oops.. can't re-edit so take two.

Seconds still mean your on the right track and with decent odds, like the ones you've been getting, you only need one or two to come in to make quite a difference.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 12.10 Cheltenham - 1pt win Knight Of Pleasure @ 16/1 (Bet365) I respect the two favourites here from powerful yards but don't really understand the price of Gary Moore's runner. If he was with a more fashionable trainer he'd be much shorter I think. The stable's horses are going well at the minute and this one did well to win on debut. It was a decent field he dispatched of - with a hot favourite - and they had the experience edge over my selection. He proved he has a big engine though by finding plenty and looking nowhere near as tired as the others crossing the line. Looked like he'll come on for it (some ponderous leaps) for all he was fairly professional and this c&d should suit with him looking like he's more of a galloper (not devoid of speed) and proved he can handle deep ground with his action lending itself to this sort of surface. This is a different sort of test for Irish Saint and it's difficult to assess Rolling Star (weak in the market). On the whole I find it baffling that the McManus runner is half the price of the Moore horse and will take the 16s on this one.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 12.40 Cheltenham - 1pt win Theatrical Star @ 14/1 (Hills) This was a race where I thought a lot of these had things against them and at 14/1 Colin Tizzard's runner makes appeal. Joe wouldn't be my first choice jockey to say the least but not much you can do about it and I hope he gives this one a good ride. This is going to be a testing 2m5f so the fact that this horse stayed three miles over hurdles bodes well this afternoon. Incredibly he's only won one race but has only had one handicap run over fences and he had obvious excuses (never travelling after being hampered/lost place). He stayed on to be 3rd behind now 140 and 130-rated animals at Exeter over an insufficient 2m2f and then didn't jump brilliantly behind a horse comfortably higher rated at Ascot. The race was against him given the lack of pace and he appears to want a good gallop to aim at (should get it here). He was allowed to stride on at Exeter last time to ensure a decent test and was only beaten narrowly by a horse who could be anything (good form, unexposed) and put 25l back to the third. He's probably not off a bad mark on that and with this likely to suit so long as his jumping holds up, I think he'll go well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 1.15 Cheltenham - 1pt win Poquelin @ 28/1 (Bet365) The old boy seems a bit of a lost cause now but for all part of this bet is slightly sentimental, I do feel he's got a chance of bouncing back at his old hunting ground although the ground wouldn't be ideal. He does, however, have plenty going for him otherwise. He's easing back down to a good mark (although likely we've seen the best of him) and conditions obviously suit with this c&d proving successful for him in the past. Harry Derham takes weight off his back and his form this season hasn't been terrible. He disappointed last time but possibly found his decent 3m return at Ascot taking too much out of him. That was a good effort over a trip that he doesn't see out as well as this and he does go well fresh so I'm happy to see him have 70 days off the track. Should be freshened up now and if in the same form as at Ascot then he can outrun his odds back here.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.25 Cheltenham - 2pts win Wayward Prince @ 12/1 (Bet365) This is going to be a real test and with a few of the fancied runners having stamina questions (Grands Crus, Hunt Ball) and Imperial Commander an unknown quantity on his return - and no betting prospect in my eyes at 5/1 - there appears plenty of value to side against the classy angle and go with a horse who looks sure to be finishing relatively well. Wayward Prince lived up to his name a bit having shown plenty as a novice - culminating in a 1l defeat in the RSA (never travelled, stayed on well). He was disappointing last season but under a new trainer appears to have turned the corner. He put in a bold sight when chasing home the hot Silviniaco Conti in the Charlie Hall (running to a good mark) on his seasonal return and won last time at Aintree. That form looks decent, especially when considering it would hardly have been ideal for him (small field at relatively sharp track). Think that's worth upgrading back here with a more galloping track in his favour and handles the ground. Stays strongly and that must put him in with a good chance this afternoon with the classy Jack Doyle on board.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Awful day really. I guess there's always a fair chance when you're with big-priced horses. Poquelin ran really well but ultimately could never really land a blow, Theatrical Star and Knight of Pleasure were below-par and I can only assume something was amiss with Wayward Prince because he barely raised a gallop. Onto the next one...

[bowles10]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert think a few of us had a bad day today mate, the good days will come...keep going :)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 3.10 Wincanton - 1pt win Sea Saffron @ 20/1 (Hills) Looks overpriced to me considering he stays well and handles the ground. He's also a horse who does his winning in the early months of the calendar year and relishes going right-handed. He's a course winner here and has had excuses on two recent starts back from a break. He's a serial winner with 7 career wins from 28 starts and is only 2lbs higher than for his latest success. Although well beaten in two starts this season, the first came over an insufficient 2m3f on the return from a six month absence and then ran in the highly-competitive Classic Chase at Warwick last time out. He was sent off at 66/1 that day and although this is a good race too, he gets in off a lighter weight as some of those towards the top have high ratings. However, I have issues with many of those so it could pay to be running off a low weight. Should be fitter again for that run and Richard Johnson is an interesting jockey booking. He seems to prefer smaller fields too so if he bounces back, 20/1 could prove a silly price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 3.50 Towcester - 1pt win Red Mile @ 7/1 (Bet365) Emma Lavelle's horses appear in decent form and this horse should enjoy the drop in class and the application of the first-time visor I fancy. He's always looked a bit tricky and as if he keeps something for himself and I'm hoping the headgear will see him put it all in this afternoon. He does look to me as if he has ability better than a 99-rated horse and surely will win a race off a mark like this at some point. He was half-decent over hurdles but has had excuses on some of his chasing runs so today could be the day. He was off the track for a long time prior to his chasing debut (not disgraced) but couldn't justify favouritism next time when potentially bouncing at Fontwell. He slipped up two starts back and contested a good race last time (0-125). He could only finish 8th of 12 but didn't jump or travel brilliantly yet wasn't beaten a million miles. He comes back into a more reasonable 0-110 race here, is down the weights, has Dominic Elsworth back on board and if the visor does the trick then he could make his mark look a little bit silly I hope.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Shorter posts today as short notice. 1.50 Sandown - 1pt win King Edmund @ 12/1 (Bet365) You can question his form but largely has run okay this season and had excuses last time when setting off quickly before coming back to the field and ending up in 5th of 6. He wasn't beaten a million miles considering (11l) and he has the potential to get a fairly easy lead today as there are no other confirmed front-runners in the field (are a couple who like to be up there, however). Prior to that run he was 2nd after a break to a thriving animal (couldn't get past that one for the lead early on) and was a sound 5th in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham last season. I think there are concerns for a few of these so the price appeals to me giving the ground is fine and this one goes best right-handed.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.05 Ffos Las - 1.5pts e/w Medinas @ 10/1 (Bet365) A rare e/w bet as it could be one of the top two in the market remain well-handicapped and in that event we could be playing for place money. I'd rather be on nothing than the Alan King-trained horse to get into the frame though and could still have the measure of the market leaders as he seems to be improving also. He's admirably consistent and has rock solid form. He's only run one bad race at Cheltenham (something presumably amiss) and this season was a good 2nd at that venue behind a thriving horse in a 22-runner handicap and again ran a similar race at Kempton to fill that position two starts back. I feel that this track will suit better than that and he clearly revels in soft ground. Found 3m on heavy at Cheltenham a little too testing last time but it was a good race and he held every chance between the last two flights. At Fishers Cross has subequently franked the form and I think King's charge will go very well once more this afternoon.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.40 Ffos Las - 3pts win Red Rocco @ 3/1 (Bet365) Although Donald McCain's runner is a novice going into a battle with hardened campaigners, this race looks made for him and I really think he's going to take the spoils. For all his status is as an inexperienced chaser, he's pretty solid at his fences and stays very well. He hasn't had too hard a races of late, staying on powerfully from the front in small novice fields but looked an out-and-out stayer at Newcastle and Kelso - finding plenty up the run-in. The fact he's won with a bit in hand over 3 miles on heavy around Newcastle proves stamina is his game and the step up in trip here looks like it'll do nothing but help. He's not an extremely quick type but will keep grinding it out and he's well worth his place towards the head of the market. Alfie Spinner should enjoy conditions but disappointed last time and Cannington Brook will have to go again after a hard win last time out (saves best for Haydock).

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 3.35 Sandown - 1pt win Viking Blond @ 9/1 (Bet365) The fear with this horse is that he appears to bomb out after a few good runs at the start of a season and he was pulled up last time out. However, he ran well for a long way in the Welsh National and didn't get to dominate that race either. He has a better hope of getting to the front today and if repeating his effort at Cheltenham two starts back he's in with a huge shout. He ran a stormer to hold every chance from the front and even rallied once headed but finished a good 3rd in the end (form franked by Monbeg Dude). He runs off the same mark today (albeit with capable 3lb claimer on board) and his usually sound jumping should stand him in good stead around this track. If he gets into a rhythm from the front then he could prove tough to pass given he enjoys the ground and stays further.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Important to get a winner on the board. Less happy with another second but wasn't close enough to make it too frustrating. Viking Blond looked like he'd kicked clear on the bend but was soon mowed down and was another fairly easily beaten in the end. Battled on well to hold 2nd though. Medinas brings home the bacon, though, a top effort and good ride from the classy Wayne Hutchinson. Bets: 116 Wins: 17 Placed: 34 Pts Staked: 186pts Pts Returned: 235pts P/L: +49pts

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Nice one BTR excellent price too :clap (think you are right about Wayne Hutchinson too - under rated)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Some competitive racing today which is nice! Three bets - all of which fairly short prices. I like the chances of all of them and hope that we can edge the bank up ready for the weekend :) 1.35 Huntingdon - 2pts win Smart Exit @ 13/2 (Ladbrokes) Of the three at the head of the market, I personally think that Renee Robeson (horses going well) holds the aces despite the betting showing her charge a 13/2 shot in this competitive field. Of course there are a few who merit respect in here but this horse won well last time and conditions again look ideal. She was regularly finishing fairly well without threatening in novice events (passing beaten horses into midfield) and those efforts suggested that a stamina test would bring out the best in him. He was 4th on his handicap debut (beaten a fair distance) but that was his first run for a while and although he was pulled-up in November, he put that behind him with a strong win at Fakenham last time out. He stayed on strongly there, enjoying the trip, and the form looks strong. The runner-up won well since off a higher mark and the front two were 10l clear. Should be finishing well here, a big field ought to suit (can take a hold) and he looks fairly treated on that victory. Should go very well once more.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 3.15 Huntingdon - 2pts win Zamdy Man @ 3/1 (Boyles) Venetia Williams is amongst the winners and this horse was probably the most interesting juvenile hurdler this season in my book. Not because he's necessarily the best but really struck me as a hurdling type in a few starts on the flat and looked fairly useful in that sphere. He never really got to reach his potential as I fancy he'd be best over further than the distance he was running over. The fact he was thrown straight into a Grade 1 on debut shows that connections hold this one in high regard and he shaped really well indeed considering his natural disadvantage of not having had a run over hurdles. He sweated up and took a fierce hold but hurdled well enough and loomed up at the top of the straight as if going to throw down a challenge. He faded in the end but it was an effort full of promise and it was his first run for a while too. All things considered he should improve plenty for that and I think that they are trying to get runs into him fairly quickly in an attempt to make Cheltenham (does have an entry in the Triumph). Has been supported today and I think will take the beating. 3.45 Huntingdon - 2pts win Baby Shine @ 9/2 (Boyles) Lucy Wadham's mare hasn't always looked the most natural hurdler but is a classy type who was a very decent horse in bumpers prior to kicking off her career over obstacles. Her first three starts over timber look better than her latter three but she's had excuses and this mark looks perfectly fair if returning to her best today. This trip looks like her ideal distance and a lot more suitable than the 3m1f she ran over last time out at Kempton. She wasn't fluent on her seasonal return at Wetherby (2m) but wasn't beaten too far and the race wasn't run to suit. It also worked out very well and she'll find this much easier. She's had a break since Kempton which is a plus in my book as she seems to perform to her best when fresh and I think if she jumps adequately she's the one to beat here as Bakbenscher could be stiffly treated now the ground isn't so bad and again Quaddick Lake - as consistent as he is - may not have a great deal of scope off his mark.