Racing For Rupert

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.40 Meydan - 2pts win Trade Storm @ 5/1 (Hills) I wouldn't have said David Simcock's charge was a winner of this race when competing okay in some handicaps over here last summer but seems to have really thrived since being sent over to Dubai and it's impossible to not be impressed by his two wins recently. He absolutely stormed to a handicap win off 104 two starts ago - showing a formidable turn of foot - running out a near 4 length winner. The runner-up won well next time out to frank the form and my selection won a Group 2 next time out to warm up for this. Although the winning margin was 1 1/2l he was worth much more. He had to thread a passage rather than having a clear run and cantered home once he'd hit the front. He has a real potent turn of pace which is a big asset in such championship races and he has a massive chance if repeating his recent form. He's had plenty more left in the tank when winning both and although he's drawn wide he'll be dropped in and if getting the splits, should go very close.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Disappointing yesterday. It is tricky at the start of the flat season when you don't know how fit a lot of the runners are. Anyway, got 2 today (possibly one more). Jumping in the shower now and because it's fairly short notice will put the bets up now and reasoning in 15 mins or so... 2.50 Musselburgh - 1pt win Keep It Dark @ 16/1 (Betfred) 3.25 Fairyhouse - 1pt win Call Rog @ 8/1 (SJ)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.50 Musselburgh - 1pt win Keep It Dark @ 16/1 (Betfred) Tony Coyle's runner has top weight here but 7lbs are taken off his back here and I think he's substantially overpriced having put in some decent efforts in his career to date. He was evidently green on debut and still looked inexperienced second time out (here). Didn't get a clear run either that day but made zero difference. I do think he's improved since then given he looked like he'd learn from that and the winner of the maiden is pretty useful. He was only beaten 3/4l on his third maiden start when made more use of and I think two heavy ground starts after that can be forgiven. Especially as he bounced back to only be beaten 1 1/4l (staying on) over 6f at Wolverhampton. He got outpaced at Southwell (as many can) before staying on again and then ran adequately there last time to say it was his first run for a while. Fitness should be now back on his side and conditions should suit. A prominent sit would help and he has the draw to do that and he's capable of going well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.25 Fairyhouse - 1pt win Call Rog @ 8/1 (SJ) Competitive race but many of these have to prove themselves at the trip and whilst Mouse Morris' charge is one of those I think his credentials are far better at staying than most and has been in good form over shorter. 5 1/4l is the furthest he's been beaten in handicaps from four starts. His effort two starts back reads very well when beaten 3l as the winner has won a chase since and the runner-up is now rated 22lbs higher (hacked up next time out and then won a listed event. My selection regularly gets himself in contention but doesn't have the speed at the end of his races to get to the front. That effort two starts back saw him under pressure and relegated into 4th turning in but he stayed on very well back into third and was closing all the way to the line. On that evidence this trip will suit down to the ground and I expect him to go very close with AP McCoy taking over on board.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Keep It Dark got a bad start and couldn't get into a handy position. Made good progress up the straight and beat the rest of the field six lengths but couldn't get to the winner. Very frustrating.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Call Rog relishes the three mile trip and sees off a good field in pretty comfortable fashion. That'll do! Still gutted about the Musselburgh result. They're making all there today so suggests had he got a better start he may have threatened the winner. Suppose you take profit however you get it though. Bit disappointed I only went 1pt on Call Rog as I was keen but it was a competitive affair on paper over a new trip (for all I thought he'd enjoy it) so made sense.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Jumps: Bets: 191 Wins: 26 Placed: 52 Pts Staked: 315pts Pts Returned: 349pts P/L: +34pts Could have gone totally wrong after Cheltenham where we stood at +16pts but thankfully have done some repair work since and fingers crossed can have a far more successful Aintree (can't be any worse!) and I imagine that'll see things slow right down over the jumps, with Ireland a possible exception. Pretty happy to see that 41% of runners are making the frame which is probably not too shabby given my average price must be fairly reasonable. Would have been nice to have a few more winners out of those but when wouldn't it be?!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Four bets to come (2 in Irish National). Possible 1 or 2 more on a hectic day tomorrow but will wait and see the prices in the morning.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 1.40 Huntingdon - 1pt win Ben Cee Pee M @ 9/1 (Bet365) Oliver Sherwood's runner is one of those who needs his conditions to be spot on and I feel those are around 2m4f on decent ground with the blinkers on. His two hurdling wins have come under conditions much like those and both of those came in April. He sneaks into April with this effort and the drying ground and reapplication of blinkers are sure to help. He's a well-handicapped individual who was in good form in 2011 - following up his wins with some good efforts behind well-handicapped horses before flopping at Doncaster. The fact he was off the track subsequently for over a year suggests to me something was amiss that day and twice running with obvious excuses since has seen his mark tumble nicely down to 95. Obviously would have needed his run at Fakenham - especially on soft without headgear - and then heavy ground/no blinkers last time can safely be disregarded. I can't bet any more than 1pt on him as we haven't seen any form this season yet but I think it's quite easy to see why and at the age of 8 there should still be plenty of life left in him (and only 18 runs in his career to date). Conditions are spot on and he has bottom weight. Ought to run his best race this season quite comfortably. 4.50 Fairyhouse - 1pt win Panther Claw @ 12/1 (Hills) and 1pt win Goonyella @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes) Taking on the field with two of the unexposed types in here and for all they lack the experience of some, they ought to get home without too much trouble - which has to be a question mark for many of these. Both appear to have stamina in abundance with Panther Claw managing to get into this race having been penalised for a success on the 18th of March. That was over three miles at Navan where he outstayed his rivals. He benefited from a more positive ride as the time before that he was only 7th turning in at Gowran Park. Although he couldn't get involved he stayed on very nicely into 3rd which suggests this extreme test will suit down to the ground. His jumping will need to hold up but he's fairly handicapped if ready to go again under a 7lb penalty I fancy as he's still improving and the test should be made for him. Goonyella comes from hunter chases but has form tied in with the best of them having got pretty close to both Oscar Delta and Salsify on his two most recent runs. He was only beaten a half length two starts back having been headed at 2 out and seemed beaten, he rallied bravely and would have got back up in a few more strides. He again showed how much stamina he has in the tank last time when although outclassed by Salsify and Tammys Hill, he was only 6 lengths back and he was closing up to the line. The way he put 13l back to the 4th-placed horse was impressive as he was only a length or so ahead going over the last and again it just suggests that he'll still be galloping when others have cried enough. He likes to race prominently which is often a benefit in eventful races like nationals and I expect good runs from both off featherweights thanks to Junior carrying top-weight. 5.25 Newcastle - 2pts win Tutchec @ 15/2 (VC) I think the price for Nicky Richards' charge is generous really as he's in form and takes quite a marked drop in class here. He does have to prove he stays three miles which is a slight concern but he has stamina in his pedigree and his runs have suggested he should be able to get home. He's a big horse who should be a sound jumper but mistakes have let him down a bit in his short chasing career so far. He was 2nd despite errors on his handicap debut in November and then was a fortunate winner at Sedgefield in December. However, he was still running a solid 2nd when the leader ploughed through the last and departed. Considering that horse won off 36lbs higher recently, it was a very decent effort to be anywhere near him in reality. He wasn't so clever at his fences either and looked vulnerable over the last when he lost momentum thanks to the loose horse. However, he recovered well and extended his lead to two lengths at the line. That's promising to see over 2m4f when he could have fallen in a hole and suggests he can stay the three miles. He came to grief next time when again failing to meet his fences with aplomb but was rallying to hold every chance when doing so and it would have been a fine effort to win considering his frailties. He runs off 1lb lower here with a run under his belt at Carlisle and that came in a 0-120 race. Today is a 0-105 affair and I really think he'll go well. He's entitled to come on for that effort (first run in 9 weeks or so) and looked a bit fresh through the race. However, the marked thing I took from it is he jumped a good deal better. He probably jumped 2 a bit iffy and hit the last hard but there were 17 obstacles and he negotiated the vast majority with ease. The error at the last made no difference but probably ensured he finished quite tired after the break up the hill but was only 8l behind the winner at the line having raced enthusiastically from the front. This is substantially weaker in my eyes and with fitness on side and hopefully another solid jumping display, he'll win handicaps off this mark. I'd probably rather this was over 2m4f as I think he'd be close to a good thing but at the price you have to take the chance that he'll stay the trip as there isn't any real evidence to suggest he won't.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Well it's fair to say they like Ben Cee Pee M today. Only 9s around now are 9/2!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert A couple more to wrap things up: 3.10 Fairyhouse - 1pt win Free To Dream @ 12/1 (VC) It's interesting that Barry Geraghty takes the ride on this horse for the first time and he looks to have a solid chance of going close here. He's been highly-tried at times this season but usually runs a solid race. He has only won a maiden and a novice hurdle so far in his career but ran sufficiently well in a handicap off this mark last time out to suggest he's not impossibly-treated. He travelled like the winner that day at Naas but didn't find much off the bridle in a three mile slog on deep ground. There's evidence to suggest that he wouldn't want a test quite that sufficient as both wins have come at around today's trip of 2m4f and neither of those came on bottomless ground. A lot of his better efforts have tended to come on slightly better ground so today's yielding to soft should be more suitable - backed up by his pedigree. The fact he travelled so well last time suggests that this easier test will suit him and with Geraghty aboard it isn't hard to see a good run.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.10 Yarmouth - 1pt win Tuffan @ 28/1 (Sportingbet) I personally think this is a laughable price and am definitely happy to take a chance on him considering. Clive Brittain has his horses in fine order at present, which is something that can't really be said when this horse was running last summer so it's plausible that he'll prove a better horse now. His four starts last year were far from without promise, running soundly from the front on his 3rd start in a fairly hot maiden. They decided a change of tactics was necessary at Kempton on his handicap debut and I reckon he'd have gone closer had he sat in his usual prominent position. He did stay on really nicely down the outside into 4th and wasn't beaten far but for the impressive winner (who won off 12lbs higher subsequently). My selection is 2lbs lower for that effort and definitely stays the trip. A more positive ride can suit him and he just looks a crazy price unless he's totally unfit. Especially considering I don't like those at the head of affairs - a weak maiden winner on heavy ground and a keen-going horse over 7f last time out stepping up to a mile with a sprinter's pedigree. Definitely worth a nibble at 28/1 and hopefully the price is very wrong.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert GRAND NATIONAL - 1pt win Balthazar King @ 25/1 (Hills) Time to take the plunge because this horse will go off shorter on the day I reckon with the ground likely to suit. Okay, they're going to water and try ensure good to soft ground but as long as it's not very deep which it shouldn't be then Philip Hobbs' runner will have a very decent chance. His record fresh is pretty much outstanding and when you couple that with decent ground then he is a formidable force. Both of those should be on his side in this and his experience over the cross country course at Cheltenham should also stand him in good stead. He's a prominent racer which suits and largely is a super jumper. He stays well (although this is a unique test) and just looks to have all the credentials to run a big race. This is a career-high mark but this is one of those races where most won't run to their mark and considering the test and conditions seem likely to suit, he's well worth a 1pt stake at 25s.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Ben Cee Pee M done on the run-in by an outsider. Gutting.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert In hindsight I think Jack Sherwood would hold onto him for a bit longer. Did nothing in front and was there long enough. Long run in totally against him too. One that got away at a nice price. Oh well.

[cpo]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Very unlucky with Ben Cee Pee M mate

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Cheers pal. Think it's fair to say Tuffan wasn't fit for that. Disputed the lead after 3f. Tailed off badly after 5f :lol

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Free To Dream #weakfinisher

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Missed opportunity yesterday I feel. Ben Cee Pee M a disappointing 2nd, Tutchec jumped poorly up the straight but not beaten far in third, Panther Claw ran soundly and Goonyella had to be pulled up after the rider lost irons/saddle slipped. Free To Dream was disappointing having travelled quite well. Apologies as slept in a bit but Exeter isn't too shabby today so could be some selections. Will also look on the all-weather.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.40 Exeter - 2pts win Bygones Sovereign @ 8/1 (VC) I'm sweet on the chances of David Pipe's runner near the bottom of the weights in this competitive race as conditions should suit and he's shown more the last twice since fitted with cheekpieces. He looked useful in bumpers and ran away with his third race in that sphere by 17l before finishing respectable 2nds on his first two hurdling starts before disappointing on soft ground behind Puffin Billy after a lengthy absence. Again was off for a while before weakening over 3m on heavy before running better the last twice. Seemed to find the trip too taxing of 3m but ran a good race for a long way on good to soft and was 3rd at Wincanton recently. The winner won again so the race has some strength to it and the ground was heavy. I get the impression this one will enjoy the better ground on offer today and the track and trip ought to suit. Think he's got a big chance from near the bottom of the weights with Tom Bellamy taking off a further 7lbs.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.10 Exeter - 3pts win Quarl Ego @ 100/30 (VC) The weakness behind Sandy's Double has to be a big concern turned out again quickly since winning at Wincanton and in a fairly ordinary handicap chase the one who stands out as well-handicapped is Lawney Hill's charge. He's a lightly-raced 9yo but showed ability as a novice before winning his handicap hurdle on his debut in that sphere and presumably something was amiss when disappointing next time (subsequently off for nearly 4 years!). However, having expectedly needed a couple of runs to put him right, he had a go at chasing last time and ran a stormer in a decent novice event. On bare form he's very well treated on that and horses have run well in handicaps off those marks since so it suggests that he ought to go very close in this. He stayed on very well that day so the track will suit and his form suggests he wouldn't want a slog. The ground is therefore ideal too and he really should take the beating here.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert I was wondering what he was doing there but Tom Bellamy steals it from the front. Was some carnage behind which helped but to be fair he didn't fall in a hole. Go on!

[Karijini]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert

2.40 Exeter - 2pts win Bygones Sovereign @ 8/1 (VC)

Good call. :ok Got on at 8/1 and also picked up Trackmate @ 99/1 WIN and 24/1 PLACE for him to come in 2nd. So couldn't have gone too much better. Well done.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Well done mate :ok Possibly one more to come but the race won't be for another couple of hours so gonna jump in the shower now. If there is, will be up in 15-20 mins.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Quarl Ego a shade disappointing in 3rd. Expected better. 18/1 and 14/1 shots ahead.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 5.10 Exeter - 2pts win Runaway Green @ 11/2 (PP) Venetia Williams is having a cracking season as everyone knows and although this horse hasn't been particularly positive in the market he's not a huge drifter and must have a huge chance if everything is right with him. The fact that Scales is the 5/1 favourite for this race says all you need to know about the contest as he's a very average horse who finds winning tricky and I'd much sooner back an unexposed type against him. Williams' charge ran in a hot contest on debut won by Shutthefrontdoor prior to folding tamely at Towcester on heavy ground. He was given a more patient ride at Wincanton last time and put in a promising performance. He was keen but travelled well in the rear before going very wide and stayed on under no more than a hands ride into midfield. Perhaps he's not a massive off the bridle horse but it was still an interesting effort in a decent race. I can't help but think the even better ground will help big time (looked slower than good to soft at Wincanton) and now he goes handicapping in a poor race. He wasn't really asked any questions last time but still made up some good ground and I just think that he's got a big chance against these lot today.

[BillyHills]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Nice winner with the Pipe horse Rupert, won easily:clap

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Cheers pal. Did it very well actually. Nothing was closing on him come the line despite going off quickly. Benefited from the pile-up in behind but I reckon it would have taken a decent one to stop him today. Shame about the other two. Was confident about the Williams horse having been well supported in the end into 7/2 but knew it was game over when he came off the bridle. Looks a weak finisher and will be swerving in the future. Still decent profit today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Frustrated to see the price already come in on two of my fancies today. The perils of leaving proper study until late I suppose. Both are still prices I'm content to accept. The first horse was way overpriced on first show especially. Just need to work out the rest of the bets. Won't be far away.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Time to rock and roll. Big three days coming up. One winner would be better than Cheltenham but not going to tempt fate!