Racing For Rupert

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Not 2nd this time but was 3rd. Very frustrating to have three placed at double-figure prices and two of those close 2nd with gaps back to the third.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 4.00 Sandown - 2pts win Master Benjamin @ 8/1 (VC) Jeremy Scott's runner here looks very interesting to me as I think you can excuse a fairly flat run last time out. He wasn't totally disgraced but was uncharacteristically beaten into midfield. However, that came just 8 days after running on heavy ground at Exeter and perhaps just came a bit too soon after those exertions. His run at Exeter looks rock solid as he chased home a horse rated 95 at the time (was 2l behind at the line) and that one has subsequently won off 109 to now get a rating of 120. A repeat of that performance would see him go close I think and he's had a breather since running at Doncaster last time out. He showed solid form in hot novice races - including coming to grief at 2 out when in contention in a decent race won by Poet and his distant staying on 3rd over 2m behind At Fishers Cross also doesn't look too bad now. Is only 4lbs higher than for his runner-up effort at Exeter and considering the way the winner has shot up the ratings since suggest he could be well-handicapped and capable of taking this now that he's had a bit of time to recover from recent runs.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Unfortunately another place with Master Benjamin flattering to deceive when finishing 3rd (travelled powerfully). Three go to post today and fingers crossed we can hit the winner's enclosure!

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.40 Kempton - 1pt win Theatre Guide @ 15/2 (VC) I'm taking on the two short-priced horses in this small field. I respect Molotof greatly but do feel that the gulf in prices between that one and my selection is simply too big. I personally can't back Grandioso at 2/1 given he basically beat out of form horses last time but he still rates as a danger - just not a backable one! Theatre Guide was probably flattered when winning on his reappearance at Exeter - storming away from the pace-setting Hinterland but it still rates as a fine effort and he has had excuses the last twice. He was 3rd (not beaten too far) by Dynaste and Court In Motion at Newbury which is very strong form and I think a tighter track will probably help Colin Tizzard's runner. Three miles on heavy was always going to test him in the Feltham here last time and he never really got going. However, he was ridden to try and get the trip by Joe Tizzard and his jumping suffered as a result in my opinion. Back in trip and with Tom O'Brien on board today I think we may see a different horse. He's been off since then and has a solid record when fresh so I think he can upset the applecart today at a decent price.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.45 Chepstow - 2pts win Pyleigh Lass @ 7/1 (Sportingbet) I think the price of the top-weight in here is potentially all wrong if she's none the worse for breaking a blood vessel last time at Ascot. She's had a break since then to help her recover and hopefully the three-month absence won't be substantial enough to see her lacking in fitness this afternoon. Prior to that blip she'd been very consistent and chased home a progressive type at Exeter (proving her stamina) to the tune of 3 1/2l. That winner has subsequently won off 12lbs higher and my selection runs off 6lbs higher today. The pair were clear of the remainder so that form looks strong. She's never been beaten more than 12l over hurdles if ignoring her latest effort and some of her runs look pretty good now - chasing home Holywell in a maiden hurdle, stumbling when holding every chance at Wincanton etc. Still has relatively few miles on the clock and with the assistance of Ian Popham, should go well today.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 3.50 Kempton - 1pt win Opening Batsman @ 14/1 (VC) Harry Fry's runner isn't exactly being supported in the market but I'm less concerned in a big race like this and looks the type to enjoy conditions this afternoon. The 10pt gap in the market behind this one and Rolling Aces (who I firmly respect) is on the large side I think with a 9lb swing in the weights (albeit my selection had 3lb claimer on that day). Noel Fehily is a top pilot, though, who could make the difference. Although comfortably held in the end, Opening Batsman confirmed his form when winning next time out and looks a horse who will enjoy three miles. He looks a horse who needs to go right-handed given his tendency to jump that way so trip and track should suit. It's also very plausible that this better ground will be in his favour too (231160) his record on ground described as good-to-soft or better (0 coming after 5 month break in hot race) and the 6th possibly when stretched over 3m1f over hurdles. He obviously handles soft fine but it's an angle worth looking at. The yard's last two runners have won so there's no issues there and he likes to be fairly handy which helps around here I think. All in all a price of 14/1 looks more than fair and I'll take my chances.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert

2.40 Kempton - 1pt win Theatre Guide @ 15/2 (VC) I'm taking on the two short-priced horses in this small field. I respect Molotof greatly but do feel that the gulf in prices between that one and my selection is simply too big. I personally can't back Grandioso at 2/1 given he basically beat out of form horses last time but he still rates as a danger - just not a backable one! Theatre Guide was probably flattered when winning on his reappearance at Exeter - storming away from the pace-setting Hinterland but it still rates as a fine effort and he has had excuses the last twice. He was 3rd (not beaten too far) by Dynaste and Court In Motion at Newbury which is very strong form and I think a tighter track will probably help Colin Tizzard's runner. Three miles on heavy was always going to test him in the Feltham here last time and he never really got going. However, he was ridden to try and get the trip by Joe Tizzard and his jumping suffered as a result in my opinion. Back in trip and with Tom O'Brien on board today I think we may see a different horse. He's been off since then and has a solid record when fresh so I think he can upset the applecart today at a decent price.

think the upset was very much on the cards til the last fence, unlucky again Ben

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Yep. Very disappointing to see Theatre Guide come down at the last. Thought he would have won had he met it on a stride. O'Brien seemed to struggle on that front quite a lot - made a bad error near the end of the back straight too so did well to hold every chance at the last. Pyleigh Lass ran well but was hampered on the turn and eventually got tired having threatened to get back involved at the death. Finished a respectable 4th and can still pick up races. Thankfully we were saved in the Racing Plus chase. A good performance from Opening Batsman and fine ride from Noel Fehily who gave up the inside to no-one. Jumped well on the whole but the horse recovered well when he didn't ping one and stayed on strongly to reverse form with Rolling Aces. Could have been a better week to say the least considering some close seconds and Theatre Guide today but no loss thanks to Harry Fry's charge: Bets: 139 Wins: 21 Placed: 43 Pts Staked: 224pts Pts Returned: 289pts P/L: +65pts

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Well done with Opening Batsman, even if I was on Rolling Aces, nice winner :clap Not sure that Theatre Guide would have won though, Grandioso jumped the last very well & there wouldn't have been much in it. Still the good news is we both had a winner & the even better news is that Theatre Guide got up having had the dreaded screens round him. Rio.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Quite right pal - and thank you :ok

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 4.50 Fontwell - 1pt win Invicta Lake @ 7/1 (Sportingbet) The favourite is hugely respected here but his price with non-runners has got too short for me with the potential to bounce after a promising return from a lengthy lay-off and I'll take it on with Suzy Smith's runner. The gelding had been wholly consistent until his effort last time when the trainer could offer no explanation for the fact he was beaten 39l. This is an easier race but if he runs like that then he won't be winning this anyway. However, given his general profile it may pay to forgive him that and he's had a bit of a break since. Before that run he won by 4l over today's c&d (idled) so conditions suit and he didn't do much wrong prior to that behind some decent types in novice events. I don't think this is a very strong race so a 7lb rise may not stop him and it's interesting that the trainer has hired the assistance of Richard Johnson for the first time on one of her horses. Take out his latest effort and he wouldn't be this price so I'm just hoping that was a mere blip and he can repay the faith today.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert A couple today at Plumpton which is a bit surprising but there we go... 2.10 Plumpton - 1pt win Ourmanmassini @ 8/1 (Bet365) Leviathan's latest run sets the standard but I'm not particularly keen on horses who don't see their races out brilliantly over hurdles and I don't think he's worthy of a bet at 5/4. That came in a small field last time when given a good ride and considering his all time strike rate of 3-29 and the furthest he's won over is a mile on the flat makes him vulnerable at the finish in my opinion. There are a few who could put it down to him but Suzy Smith's runner makes most interest to me as he's a bumper winner and ran pretty well here on hurdling debut last time out. Obviously should improve for the experience but it was a hot race with Mr Watson 1st and the runner-up looking smart as well (franked form next time) and my selection wasn't beaten far by those behind the main two (and a respectable 16l defeat to the classy winner). He made a mistake at the last which cost him a length or two as well and I don't think the ground was ideal, either. Dr Massini's have a better record on better ground and this horse has an action which suggests that the better ground on offer this afternoon will help. Any improvement on his hurdling debut (and I see a few reasons why this is likely) should see him competitive here and I'd sooner back at 8/1 than the favourite at 5/4.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 3.10 Plumpton - 2pts win Nemo Spirit @ 8/1 (Bet365) It's fair to say this horse's last couple of runs have been better than the bare result and if he's allowed to run today then he's more than capable of getting involved. He's yet to win over hurdles but stays well on the flat and has won 3 races in that sphere yet has been held up to get the trip of late (or has he?) over hurdles. Given a couple of bizarre rides from a 7lb claimer the last twice - holding him up (including in a 5 runner field, although that came on seasonal return so can be forgiven a little for defeat) but last time was a bit of a joke really. Was never involved but had plenty left in the tank as he stayed on basically on the bridle past rivals to finish a 12l 7th. His mark is now 8lbs lower than two starts back which may be just the ticket and the tongue-tie returns today with Tom Cannon claiming 3lbs taking over on board. Hopefully this points to a more positive run - given he's been a front-runner nearly all of his career - and can therefore deliver the full promise of his ability. Difficult to gauge but the market speaks favourably in the early parts of today and with the aforementioned changes today, I'm hoping he gets a bit more assistance from the saddle.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Ourmanmassini wins with a good jump at 2nd last? Bad error, stumbled badly on landing, hung right, eventually beaten less than 3l. Difficult to say with the eventual runner-up hampered but get the impression Ourmanmassini lost more momentum. I dunno - maybe not. Nemo Spirit 3rd, held up, nearest at the finish, utterly bewildering, in my opinion anyway. Winner did it well though. Frustrating as I think two right horses but not today unfortunately.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.20 Catterick - 2pts win Avanos @ 6/1 (Boyles) Not exactly my favourite races to get involved in but I do fancy Philip Kirby's charge for all I've little knowledge regarding the mount of his charge today. The horse was pulled up over fences last time but it was his first run for six months or so and came on heavy ground which is far from ideal as well. If you forgive him that run, which I can, he looks to have a solid chance on some of his hurdling exploits. He did win on soft last July but his overall record suggests he's a better animal on decent ground which gives him a decent chance of scoring off this mark today with conditions to suit. He ran okay on his chasing debut to be 3rd at Southwell subsequently - just shaping as if the 2m5f was on the stiff side and the return to 2m3f over hurdles around a sharp track such as Catterick can help. He's won off a higher mark in the past and his record over hurdles (especially on better ground) looks pretty solid for a low-grade race such as this. The stable's horses are in decent form too and nibbles of market support this morning suggest a big run could be on the cards. Think he'll go very close.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Lost a leg out to 10/1, detached at start, unseats rider at 3rd. Yep, couldn't have gone worse. Bloody low grade stuff.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.55 Fairyhouse - 1pt win Somedaysomehow @ 14/1 (Bet365) Not a great deal catching my eye on these shores today but this one over at Fairyhouse looks overpriced to me as she returns from stiff company and a 2m4f trip last time - neither of which seem ideal. Her best form has come over the minimum 2m trip over hurdles - winning her maiden over the distance and then finishing 3rd in a decent novice race on her only other try at 2m. She ran as well as could be expected in the latter mentioned race as the two that beat her have franked the form and are a little bit better than her. She was sent off at 33/1 last time in a Grade 3 where she was off level weights with horses regularly rated 20lbs higher than her in the field. I think it's probably wise to forgive her that effort now she drops back into a 0-115 handicap - running off a mark of 113. Her sole win came after an absence so the two-month break may have done her some good and conditions seem ripe for another bold crack at a race.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.10 Doncaster - 2pts win Bollin Tahini @ 16/1 (Bet365) Posted this before her last run (ignore the fact I described "her" as "him"!):

3.00 Folkestone - 2pts win Bollin Tahini @ 10/1 (Bet365) I personally can't fathom the short price on the favourite here who I don't believe will relish a 2m4f slog on heavy ground but I could be wrong. However, I'll let that one win at 7/4 and of the others, it's Neil King's runner who interests me. His first five starts in his career were fairly promising, suggesting he'd win a race or two, but went to pot in two starts over hurdles subsequently (albeit in novice events). It's clear he needs low level handicaps but he didn't really go with much purpose or jump very well in those starts at Taunton and Doncaster. However, off the back of an eight-month absence he looked a great deal more professional at Doncaster last month. He jumped much better and travelled up quite nicely towards the business end of the race. Eventually backed out of it to finish 7th of 13 but was by no means disgraced and shaped so much better. With fitness on his side now, he can go well if building on that. He traded at 8.6 in running which shows how well he went for a long way considering he went off at 33/1 and that proves he ran a lot more positively than before. This is a bad race and he's been dropped 3lbs for that and I expect him to be there or thereabouts if not falling back out of form.

She again ran better than the bare result and just confirmed my suspicions that she'd like better ground a whole lot more. She again travelled quite well and loomed up to be a threat but couldn't pick up and the drop back in trip with this good ground looks ideal. She's been pulled out on soft ground since so has waited for this sort of surface and is 4lbs lower than her latest run. She's gone okay after a short break before and I do think she's capable off a mark of 83 of winning races. I just don't think she's built for a slog and this should be much more her cup of tea. I've been waiting for her to return to the track with more reasonable conditions and I'm hoping I've got her right. Gone with a 2pt bet here and fingers crossed my faith can be justified this afternoon.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.55 Newbury - 2pts win Sew on Target @ 3/1 (Bet365) Although this one has shortened up a little bit since first show, I think the 9/2 available would have been a steal as I still regard 3/1 as a workable price for a horse who I feel will take all the beating here. Silver Roque might just be in the handicapper's grip, especially after over 100 days off and Colin Tizzard's runner looks to have everything in his favour to go extremely well this afternoon. This gelding is largely consistent and also on the progressive side. His maiden chase win (beat a horse now rated 132 having won off 126 last time) looks strong form and he hasn't really had the chance to build on that since given he's had clear excuses the last twice. Ran well for a long way in a hot Cheltenham handicap over 2m5f before shaping as if needing to come back down in trip. Finished 4th in the end behind Vino Griego and the form of that race has been well franked subsequently. He took his chances in a novice event last time but had plenty to find on figures and wasn't disgraced at 33/1. Returns to handicap company this afternoon with conditions to suit and I think he can defy a mark of 120 here.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 3.30 Newbury - 1pt win Shuil Royale @ 11/1 (Hills) David Arbuthnot's horses are going pretty well at the minute and he looks to have a live contender here with a horse who has been nibbled in the market which is a positive sign after a relatively flat run last time out. He never really got into a jumping rhythm and could only plug on into 5th of 12 at Huntingdon but it's plausible that run came too soon after a narrow defeat at Taunton (9 days) and the three weeks or so he's had off since should help him find his spark again here. That run at Taunton would give him a big chance today as he was only beaten a short-head by the progressive Emperor's Choice who won off 126 the other day - the same mark my selection runs off here. Tom Cannon takes 3lbs off his back and has won on the horse before so I think he is fairly treated still. His chase debut prior to Taunton was promising (did fall but was only 3l down when coming to grief at the last) and that came after a summer off the track. Inbetween Taunton and last time he was a solid 5th (outpaced, stayed on) in a jumper's bumper and although his jumping has been criticised due to last time out, he jumped fine at Taunton and I'm hoping he can revert to that sort of form this afternoon. The more galloping track should suit having watched that race and although Sir Frank (backed last time at a good price!) looks well-in, I think he's worth taking on going further up in trip at a more testing track. Definitely at 2/1 anyway. Cannon's mount looks a bit of value to me and I'm hopeful of a big run.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert (Was looking at hurdle mark for Shuil Royale - actually runs off 119.)

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Bollin Tahini never goes a yard. Highly disappointing as I was confident. Travelled/jumped well the last twice so knew the fate immediately. Will win at a price when the day comes though. Just impossible to know when that will be. Maybe one for the in-play punter as she should have gone a whole deal better today.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert On another point...going to get on the Cheltenham bandwagon properly later on. Hopefully will get some posts/previews up (with some ante-post bets) later on tonight with my thoughts on the big races - handicaps will typically be looked at much closer to the start of the meeting.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Jesus Christ. Another too bad to be true. Unreal. Didn't go a yard either. No reason for it.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Should have stayed in bed :(

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert one of those days Ben

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Yup. It happens. I guess I'm thankful I haven't had too many of these so far this season.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Like the look of tomorrow's racing. Got a couple of fancies already at double-figure prices. Think both were backed last time out. Other races need looking at as well. Fingers crossed for a good one.

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert Going to bed so these two are quick I'm afraid. 2.05 Newbury - 2pts win Off The Ground @ 10/1 (Bet365) Was a horse I quite liked last time out over fences at Doncaster but never jumped well in rear and considering his lack of fluency he did quite well to finish 6th of 14 in the end - plugging on. Looks much more suited to hurdles based on his chase runs to date so this is very interesting as he clearly has an engine. His hurdles form is good (presumably amiss when no-showing on final start of last season) and I don't think this trip will be an issue. He's quite stoutly-bred and he tends to finish his races off well. I think he'll be fine and the jockey booking of Barry Geraghty is very interesting. The Lavelle yard aren't flying but this one looks one to keep on the right side of I fancy he's back over the smaller obstacles and can go well. 3.50 Newbury - 1pt win Mr Gardner @ 14/1 (Hills) Posted this last time out:

2.40 Wincanton - 1pt win Mr Gardner @ 10/1 (Hills) Polly Gundry's horse would have been interesting to me regardless of a market move but all of a sudden has become an attractive betting prospect given the positive signals we have seen early on. He has left Nicky Henderson since running in the Jewson in 2011 and has been off since but both of his wins have come fresh including a near two-month absence. I fancied him for the Jewson after a good 3rd to Medermit and Captain Chris at Sandown but clearly something was amiss as he never went with any fluency and subsequently hasn't been seen since. He's got plenty of ability though so if he has retained it all then he's got a good chance off this mark. He would have gone close at Sandown but for a stumble at the 2nd last and he's a soft ground winner. This heavy is a slight concern because you never know but he's a good jumper, enjoys going right-handed and Tom O'Brien takes the ride. Could well go off a fair bit shorter than this based on the early support and I hope the market has this one correct.

Shaped really well here considering O'Brien gave him a very generous ride to say the least. Travelled and jumped well enough considering his absence but showed he retained plenty of ability. Well-treated on old form and finished a solid 4th at Wincanton. Would have been 3rd if O'Brien really asked him I fancy as he never got after him really. Suggested he was saving him for a bigger prize and with natural improvement on the cards from a fitness perspective I think he's got a big chance here with conditions to suit. (Might be more bets but will decide in the morning).

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Re: Jumps Time For Rupert 2.40 Newbury - 1pt win Posh Bird @ 14/1 (Hills) I probably wouldn't be drawn to this bet had I not have big reservations over a lot of the market leaders. Here's what I posted about this horse last time:

2.15 Catterick - 1pt win Posh Bird @ 14/1 (Bet365) When you see that this mare has a strike rate of 2-33 and is 18lbs higher than her only handicap win, she doesn't seem an attractive betting prospect. However, she does have plenty in her favour and it's a sure fire positive that the handicap she won was this contest last year. Okay, so she's a fair bit higher in the weights now but was 2nd off 112 and 118 in good races subsequently (including the Eider when 11l clear of the third off 3lbs lower than today). The Midlands National was a race too far after that but signed off last season with an unlucky 3rd at Kelso over an insufficient 3 miles. She was hampered quite crucially and was ultimately on the back foot from there on in but kept going really well under pressure and closed to within 4l at the line (off this mark). That came over 3 miles but looks much better with her stamina stretched out and shaped well on her seasonal reappearance at Musselburgh last time out - again over three. She was held-up as per usual but got outpaced prior to staying on in the latter stages without Henry Brooke reaching for the stick. It was a pretty useful race really and was always going to be tough given the trip was sharp and she would have needed the run. Shaped as if she'd come on for it and conditions obviously suit today. Brian Hughes is back on board today (finished 2nd twice from three starts on the mare - the other was a decent 4th on a seasonal reappearance). I think it would be foolish to write her off, for all on first looks she appears handicapped to the hilt. I'm pretty confident she'll run a good race and I'll just have to hope it'll be good enough to see her retain her crown.

She disappointed me on this occasion as she was never sighted from the rear but it was a race which strongly favoured those prominent throughout and therefore I think she can be forgiven a little bit - especially as she runs off a featherweight today in a race where I don't like those near the top of the weights. Although she seems fairly versatile with regards to the ground I think she's probably better on a sounder surface which she gets today so that's another positive and there have been some nibbles for her this morning. Cheekpieces return and her wins have come when carrying low weights such as today. At the prices I'm much happier siding with this one and am hoping she can bounce back with the handicapper dropping her 4lbs from her last run. 3.15 Newbury - 2pts win Turn Over Sivola @ 15/2 (VC) Posted this last time:

3.50 Kempton - 2pts win Turn Over Sivola @ 13/2 (Hills) You have to respect Forgotten Voice but this will be more testing than small, novice hurdles on good ground and it's plausible if he fails to settle, he will run out of gas late on. Alan King's runner looks a rock solid alternative and I think he's primed to run a cracker here. He was fairly useful in bumpers and his record of 1219 since going over hurdles is strong. The 2nd came to a nice type off the back of a break and the 9th last time was much better than the bare form. He was in 6th going up the hill but faded late on. He seems off a fair mark on his novice exploits and this track should suit. He's a strong-traveller and went as well as most at Cheltenham last time but the combination of the stiff track and heavy ground just found him out. The better ground here and sharper track will play to his strengths - emphasised by the fact he traded at 4, 1.01, 1.62, 2.9 and 2.69 in five of his six career defeats. Will travel around here no problem and should find more when asked than he did last time. The winner made up a large amount of the losing deficit last time as well which exaggerated his performance and I reckon this one will take the beating today.

I don't think things really went his way here either for all he finished 3rd (would have been 4th had Starluck not fallen at last). Firstly the ground was still soft and I get the feeling that today's genuinely decent ground will be a lot better for him. It was a bit of a stop-start affair at Kempton where he took a bit of a hold and then when they sprinted for home he was bogged down in the ground I reckon. A more even gallop will suit and I'm happier about him getting home on this ground. Should come into it travelling well which is a bonus if they've gone hard up front and I think good ground will be the making of him. He travels like a good horse and one of these days it'll all come together for him. The first three in the betting don't jump out at me (fav off track for a few months, one very keen last time and the other underpriced for being with John Ferguson in my eyes - hasn't seen his races out well enough for me since going hurdling). Based on that I think 15/2 is a sound price for Alan King's runner and fingers crossed everything will fall into place.