BBOTD 1st of August

[Aidymac]

Best of luck in a new month folks. :D

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August *Ghurair - Goodwood 2:35* This horse looks like a top class horse in the making. Was an expensive purchace, and justified it's price when winning cosily in a big field maiden at Newmarket. The Gosden stable think a huge amount of this horse, and if it even has half the ability they reckon it has, it should win this race. Gosden has had 3 winners from his last 7 runners, and at Goodwood 2 of his last 3 have won. *1 Point WIN @ 9/4 Bet365 BOG*

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August Goodwood 530 - Whitefrost 7/1 Ladbrokes BOG This horse only ran 4 days ago but he came a close 2nd at York last weekend when unluckily bumping into Dimension who broke the course record. Whitefrost ran up with the pace that day and York isnt really a track you associate with front runners so his effort can be upgraded IMO. This track will suit him more in that regard and while the draw hasnt been kind, I am banking on him getting across without too much trouble. The race he contested at the weekend was a class 2 and this is a step down and he is now back on his last winning mark (progressive at the end of last year but had an awful start to this season).

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August 5.25 Galway Galway Plate, handicap chase, grade A, €120,400 to the winner BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN win @ 6/1 bog (Victor Chandler) Feature race of the day at the Galway Festival and most important and rich chase of the summer in UK and Ireland. I'm gonna support full stake Blackstairmountain here. The horse is at the top of his form and has been aimed at this race all the summer. He won a preparation race on the flat at Bellewstown (1m4f, heavy) in impressive style and his previous four starts were all in Grade 1s, second last time out at Punchestown over 2m on heavy ground, 5th in the Arkle of the Cheltenham Festival (good) won by Sprinter Sacre and 5th in the Arkle of the Leopardstown Festival in January won by Flemenstar (soft/heavy), the best two novice chasers in Europe imho. To win such a big handicap off a mark of 147 is never easy but Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh surely know what how to do it. Stable has been in great form this summer and Willie Mullins saddled last year's winner Blazing Tempo for the same owner (Ricci) and also in that case it was sent off favourite. All the main dangers have big question marks. Last year's second Wise Old Owl has never run since that defeat, races here off a 10lb higher mark and shouldn't appreciate the testing conditions (here in Galway it's still raining at the moment and if it keeps raining it's gonna be more on the heavy side than on the predicted soft), Whodoyouthink also doesn't like the ground too soft and his stablemate Follow The Plan needs a super perfomance to win this off 160 giving so much weight to all the other runners, Carlito Brigante started his chasing career two runs ago and it would be a huge effort to win this kind of race third time out over fences off a mark of 141 and surely doesn't like it too soft either, Out Now is back after a 4-month break and is 7lb higher than last time out, didnt win in his last 4 starts but is probably the main danger as the ground shouldn't be a problem and trainer and jockey combination sounds very dangerous, Daffern Seal won over C&D and has run just 5 times in his career, represents the historical leading trainer of the Galway Festival but didn't jump too well on his previous two outs, is back after a 5-month break and shouldn't appreciate too much the testing ground, Casey Top won last time out and has been aimed at this race since but is another that shouldn't appreciate the ground. Very high confidence (full stake already placed first bets 4 weeks ago when the first odds came out with Blackstairmountain available at 10s) and fingers crossed that everything goes right.

[gman1]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August 525 Galway Shot From The Hip 20/1 Bet 365 Paying 5 places and with a generous looking 20/1 it could be worth having a small punt on one of JP McManus's many entries. This one has a low weight, is bang in form, and has a good jockey for a hold up run in mark walsh. Downside is its never won over longer than 22 furlongs but if it manages to store something in k for an expected late run it might not be too far away.

[nickf88]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August 2:00 Goodwood - Hurricane Higgins - 0.5 pts EW (20/1, Hills) A risky bet here really but one worth taking with Johnson's record at Goodwood with 4 year old + horses and the fact this horse could well improve for a dramatic step up in trip here. Taking on some classy horses but this horse was once rated 103 and running in Group 2/3 races last year. Now rated 95 but for a reason, after some poor efforts over a variety of trips and ground but did finish 3rd over 1 mile 6 at Newmarket back in May. Draw hasn't been kind but as we know Johnson had a winner from a poor draw in the first at Goodwood today so it's not impossible, especially over such a long trip that it may not inconvience. Really rate Joe Fanning as well so hopefully they'll be up for winning this tomorrow. Worth an EW bet with 4 places up for grabs but will either bomb out or go close in my opinion. Good luck all in the competition this month.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August 2.00 goodwood orsippus - gritty stayer that was caught flat-footed over shorter at york last time but should relish this stiffer test. Won here over 1m as a juvenile which is a little plus, and given he's a G1 winner over jumps, could still have more to offer on the level off this sort of mark. 9/1 bet 365, 0.5 pt EW

[BARNSLEYCHOP]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August 5.30 GOODWOOD GALICIAN @ 14/1 WHILLS .5 ew This one has only been out of the first 3 twice in his 9 race career and improved 12lb in the spring, soft ground stopped his run and has been a break while the ground has been bad. The Johnston stable are hitting top form and with his weight for age allowance and high draw could go close at a double figure price.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August

Goodwood 530 - Whitefrost 7/1 Ladbrokes BOG This horse only ran 4 days ago but he came a close 2nd at York last weekend when unluckily bumping into Dimension who broke the course record. Whitefrost ran up with the pace that day and York isnt really a track you associate with front runners so his effort can be upgraded IMO. This track will suit him more in that regard and while the draw hasnt been kind, I am banking on him getting across without too much trouble. The race he contested at the weekend was a class 2 and this is a step down and he is now back on his last winning mark (progressive at the end of last year but had an awful start to this season).

NR GW 455 AMBER SILK 20/1 STAN JAMES BOG Won really well here earlier looking like a horse to follow but hasnt gone on since. Soft ground probably to blame so i aam hoping the sounder surface brings the horse back to form.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August 1400 goodwood 1pt win seaside sizzler 9/1 bet365 finished 6th last time out at ascot behind simeon at todays distance and hopefully can put that run to get it right for todays race,jim crowley takes the ride

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August 2:35 Goodwood: Ghurair 1pt win 9/4 William Hill Often John Gosden's two year olds need their first run. However Ghurair won in decent style at Newmarket, only having to be pushed out to win from Improvisation. The fourth that day Afonso De Sousa trained by Aiden O'Brien won next time at The Curragh, and looking further down the filed No Jet Lag who was seventh went in next time too. Its reasonable to hope for further improvement, in which case Ghurair should go very close.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August 6:25 Perth - Hawkhill - Back Only 4 go to post but this only looks to concern 2. Anitopia has run ok on his last 3 starts including a decent win, but Hawkhill has been ultra consistent in races much better than this including a good 2nd in a better race lto and should tale a world of beating here 1pt win @ 1/5 Hills BOG

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August P9.00 Vallani 1pt Win 28/1 Paddy Power I thought this was a cracking e/w shot in an 8 runner race but the favourite has just been taken out leaving 7 runners so I'll make it a win bet. It's only got one career win but interestingly that was under these conditions and with the jockeys claim it's actually carrying less than when winning that race. It also ran a good race over c&d when finishing 2nd so the track holds no fears and I think it's simply overpriced with many of the more fancied horses having holes in their form.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August 2.00 Goodwood - 1pt win Veiled @ 14/1 (Bet365) I personally cannot touch the favourite at such a price at this trip and will let him win should he do so. I, however, am pretty sweet on the chances of Nicky Henderson's first string in here who won the Ascot stakes off 6lbs lower last year - proving she has both the quality and the stamina for this test. Although she's been a bit hold and cold since then, she's run a couple of good races in both codes recently and her recent run at the Royal meeting does not put me off her today. She ran a fine 3rd in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival before weakening at Aintree over 3m1f - no great surprise seen as she's never won over that far, especially on soft ground, just a few weeks after Cheltenham. You would have thought she would get home over that trip in NH racing considering her flat record but I can forgive her that and she ran respectably last time out at Ascot. She finished 10th of 20, but wasn't beaten far when taking out the thrown-in winner and Eddie Ahern eased her down late on, exaggerating the losing margin. She travelled well, but was on the outside, and the ground wasn't ideal. She relishes a quick surface and she seems likely to get something close today and is also a summer horse by the looks of things (7-8 wins between March-September). I think the ground can make all the difference here and she travelled plenty strongly enough to suggest she's in good order. She's not out of this at the weights and she looks a sound bet to run her race and I'm fairly confident it will see her go close.

[kroni]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August 5:30 Goodwood 0.5pts e-w Santefisio @ 16/1 Betvictor Goes well here at Goodwood, 7 furlongs seems to be his optimum trip on turf, 10 furlong and soft ground probably didn't suit lto when well beaten, ran a close 2nd 2 starts back and that would put him in the mix here off same mark, trainer is in form and a interesting jockey booking, good draw and if the first time blinlkers have the desired effect then he should run a decent race.

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August 16.55 – Goodwood – Keene Dancer @ 4/1 BetVictor Very progressive 3yo who has won her last 2 starts in a maiden and on handicap debut, both at Windsor over 8f. Has a 7lb rise for the latest success which looks fair considering the way she won and the extra progression expected. Seems very versatile with regards to the ground having won on both Sft and GF. Receives 3yo weight allowance, has a reasonable draw and from a yard with a good strike rate at Goodwood. Top Jockey Ryan Moore onboard once again, should make a bold bid to complete hatrick.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August 505 Redcar: Broctune Papa Gio EW (4/1 Betfred) Difficult day today so trying to play safe with a solid Redcar performer in Broctune Papa Gio, saves his best for this tarck and has been knocking on the door lately. Has been drawn high yet again which may not be ideal but has dealt with it the last three times here. In good form and just cant see him being out of the frame.

[gman1]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August

525 Galway Shot From The Hip 20/1 Bet 365 Paying 5 places and with a generous looking 20/1 it could be worth having a small punt on one of JP McManus's many entries. This one has a low weight, is bang in form, and has a good jockey for a hold up run in mark walsh. Downside is its never won over longer than 22 furlongs but if it manages to store something in k for an expected late run it might not be too far away.

MEANT TO SAY THIS IS AN EACHWAY BET bh

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August

2:00 Goodwood - Hurricane Higgins - 0.5 pts EW (20/1, Hills) A risky bet here really but one worth taking with Johnson's record at Goodwood with 4 year old + horses and the fact this horse could well improve for a dramatic step up in trip here. Taking on some classy horses but this horse was once rated 103 and running in Group 2/3 races last year. Now rated 95 but for a reason, after some poor efforts over a variety of trips and ground but did finish 3rd over 1 mile 6 at Newmarket back in May. Draw hasn't been kind but as we know Johnson had a winner from a poor draw in the first at Goodwood today so it's not impossible, especially over such a long trip that it may not inconvience. Really rate Joe Fanning as well so hopefully they'll be up for winning this tomorrow. Worth an EW bet with 4 places up for grabs but will either bomb out or go close in my opinion. Good luck all in the competition this month.

Superb way to start off the month Nick! Well done mate, lovely winner. :clap

[santos_]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August Goodwood 2.35 - Olympic Glory 1pts win 3/1 Bet365 Three very good runs so far followed up Ascot 2nd with a narrow win at Newmarket seems versatile ground wise too even though he prob didn't handle it that well he strill win. Richard Hannon also has a good record in this race quite a few of these ran in that last race so might have a bit to find.

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August

I have gone with Scatterdice later on. Not a bet because of the stable but because it fits one of my systems. It is interesting though that it is one of Johnston's and Egan has the ride. Seven day winners - simple rules, those that have won in the past 7 days. Results: monitored since 27.6.12 - bets 128, wins 31 (24.22%), places 71 Since 2010, this system would have produced 716 winners from 2729 bets. A 31pt loss on industry SP, but a gain of 61pts using

>Betfair. 7/1 win - bet365

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August Goodwood 3:45 - Scatterdice

I have gone with Scatterdice later on. Not a bet because of the stable but because it fits one of my systems. It is interesting though that it is one of Johnston's and Egan has the ride.

Seven day winners - simple rules, those that have won in the past 7 days.

Results: monitored since 27.6.12 - bets 128, wins 31 (24.22%), places 71

Since 2010, this system would have produced 716 winners from 2729 bets. A 31pt loss on industry SP, but a gain of 61pts using

>Betfair

. 7/1 win - bet365

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August Well done Nick :ok

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August Grand Lahou 5.55 Perth. 1 point win. Bit worried about last time's effort and that he's been dropped into a seller pretty quickly, but would appear to have a class edge here over all but one, & the favourite isn't straight forward, especially now back hurdling. The trip and ground isn't a concern and too soon to write him off. Could win this with ease. 2/1 SkyBet

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August LUCKY SUNNY 7.00 Perth. 1 point win. Gets in off a mark of 102 for this chase debut and that's fine if he proves he can jump. Apparently schooled well enough coming into this and so with the trip and ground no concern, he should be able to go close. Others have their own questions to answer, so all in all we have a good win chance. 7/2 Bet365 BOG

[DC]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August 8.30 Perth SOLWAY DORNAL 1pt win 5-1 Bet365 (BOG) Think this one is overpiced. The favourite is sure to go on the ground but in my opinion is a little high in the weights. My selection has done all it's winning and placings off a mark of 64, including a 2nd at Perth this time last year, and tonight it carries the same mark but also has a 7lb claimer to reduce the weight further so must have a decent chance if able to handle the softer ground.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August Perth 8.30 - Fog Patches - win at 6/4 bog bet365 Looks a real stayer and is by Oscar. I like jumps horses by Oscar he's won on heavy ground over slightly shorter should get this trip on soft ground Very few of these appear to be at home on soft ground - I'm guessing they were declared before the ground changed but are taking their chance anyway Lucinda Russell has 3 of the 7 runners and my selection would appear to be the choice of the stable jockey

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August

5:30 Goodwood 0.5pts e-w Santefisio @ 16/1 Betvictor Goes well here at Goodwood, 7 furlongs seems to be his optimum trip on turf, 10 furlong and soft ground probably didn't suit lto when well beaten, ran a close 2nd 2 starts back and that would put him in the mix here off same mark, trainer is in form and a interesting jockey booking, good draw and if the first time blinlkers have the desired effect then he should run a decent race.

Great shout and so unlucky not to just keep his nose in front!

2:00 Goodwood - Hurricane Higgins - 0.5 pts EW (20/1, Hills) A risky bet here really but one worth taking with Johnson's record at Goodwood with 4 year old + horses and the fact this horse could well improve for a dramatic step up in trip here. Taking on some classy horses but this horse was once rated 103 and running in Group 2/3 races last year. Now rated 95 but for a reason, after some poor efforts over a variety of trips and ground but did finish 3rd over 1 mile 6 at Newmarket back in May. Draw hasn't been kind but as we know Johnson had a winner from a poor draw in the first at Goodwood today so it's not impossible, especially over such a long trip that it may not inconvience. Really rate Joe Fanning as well so hopefully they'll be up for winning this tomorrow. Worth an EW bet with 4 places up for grabs but will either bomb out or go close in my opinion. Good luck all in the competition this month.

Well done Nick! :clap Cracking price.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August

P9.00 Vallani 1pt Win 28/1 Paddy Power I thought this was a cracking e/w shot in an 8 runner race but the favourite has just been taken out leaving 7 runners so I'll make it a win bet. It's only got one career win but interestingly that was under these conditions and with the jockeys claim it's actually carrying less than when winning that race. It also ran a good race over c&d when finishing 2nd so the track holds no fears and I think it's simply overpriced with many of the more fancied horses having holes in their form.

Smashing bet mate... Woof! :clap

[nickf88]

Re: BBOTD 1st of August

P9.00 Vallani 1pt Win 28/1 Paddy Power I thought this was a cracking e/w shot in an 8 runner race but the favourite has just been taken out leaving 7 runners so I'll make it a win bet. It's only got one career win but interestingly that was under these conditions and with the jockeys claim it's actually carrying less than when winning that race. It also ran a good race over c&d when finishing 2nd so the track holds no fears and I think it's simply overpriced with many of the more fancied horses having holes in their form.

:notworthy