Flat season - Too difficult to profit?

[dannn17]

I think it is, I know there are people out there who do but there is just so much you have to take into consideration when you analyse the races. Ground, distance, draw and the race pace are just the few essential things you have to look at, with the jumps it is so much easier to analyse the form as there isn't really much to analyse, just distance and maybe jumping abilities, ground doesn't play as big part as in the flat imo. It could just be this season, it hasn't helped with the rain I suppose, look at Homecoming Queen, bolts up in the 1000 Guineas then look at her two previous runs, just can't explain it really.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit?

I think it is' date=' I know there are people out there who do but there is just so much you have to take into consideration when you analyse the races. Ground, distance, draw and the race pace are just the few essential things you have to look at, with the jumps it is so much easier to analyse the form as there isn't really much to analyse, just distance and maybe jumping abilities, ground doesn't play as big part as in the flat imo. It could just be this season, it hasn't helped with the rain I suppose, look at Homecoming Queen, bolts up in the 1000 Guineas then look at her two previous runs, just can't explain it really.[/quote'] Not if you do your homework properly. Try and predict which race will set the pace, how the race will be run, where the best ground is/draw advantage, running styles, if they go on the ground, get the trip etc. Most importantly is watching racing, making notes, analysing it and finding potential improvers for their next time out runs. If you can forgive a horse a bad run and find genuine reasons that are beyond simply not being good enough then you're on the right lines. An example would be forgiving a horse a bad run at Epsom or on specific ground such as heavy. You've also got to accept there will be losing runs and getting out the other side of them without denting the profits too much is a real test. I make mental and physical notes on horses to follow and I know others do on here as they often quote posts they have made previously for a horse. Look out for Star Of Rohm and Lisiere tomorrow. :ok Gatewood would have been on most lists after hosing up at Epsom a bit cheekily and it just won again for Buick. You can see the lads on here put a hell of a lot of effort into their research and it pays off. Homecoming Queen caught them napping at Newmarket, bit of a freak result and look at where it finished today, reminds me of how Murtagh nicked the Oaks on Dancing Rain last season. The odds compilers get things wrong, it's our challenge to exploit their errors, take better prices than horses should be and make a profit. Finding overrated or underestimated horses is the key long term.

[The Saint]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit?

I think it is' date=' I know there are people out there who do but there is just so much you have to take into consideration when you analyse the races. Ground, distance, draw and the race pace are just the few essential things you have to look at, with the jumps it is so much easier to analyse the form as there isn't really much to analyse, just distance and maybe jumping abilities, ground doesn't play as big part as in the flat imo. It could just be this season, it hasn't helped with the rain I suppose, look at Homecoming Queen, bolts up in the 1000 Guineas then look at her two previous runs, just can't explain it really.[/quote'] If it's any sort of consolation Dan, I am useless over the jumps... Absolutely useless. The weather this year has not been a massive help to be fair(on the flat) For me, I am not privvy to inside info etc so I have to rely on my own eyes. That is the sole reason I prefer the flat - and probably the reason I am better at it. Generally, in a flat race, I can see every horse for the vast majority of the race... How they travel, how hard the jockey(appears) to be trying and whether they are ridden out to the line... When a jumps runner finishes say 3rd of 8, it's nt uncommon for him to be 30l behind the winner and out of shot?! How do I equate that to figures?!?! I don't have a scooby!! As for the 1,000 Gns - I am happy to write that one off as a freak with the field being loaded and then unloaded. Weren't the 1st and 2nd the only ones not to go in first time round? Can't be a conincidence... The weather has to improve soon doesn't it!? It generally gets a bit easier after Ascot in my experience... Famous last words!:lol There are no shortcuts either... I can't talk for anyone else on here but if I want to make it pay I would say you have to put at least 8 hours a day - minimum.... The amount of racing on the flat does not help I grant you... Maybe just concentrate on hcaps or group races, sprints or mile events.... Whatever suits you maybe? Good Luck with it.

[dannn17]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit? I put like 1 hour max into my research... lol, probably where I'm going wrong I guess. So do you profit long term with the amount of research you do? Probably just got lucky in the jumps season, my research for Cheltenham was about 30-45 minutes each day and I came out with a big profit. Thanks for the feedback though, probably just shows I need to change my approach, I'm kind of still analysing races on the basics like ground/distance instead of going more in-depth and watching previous runs, looking at race pace, things like that.

[The Saint]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit?

I put like 1 hour max into my research... lol' date=' probably where I'm going wrong I guess. So do you profit long term with the amount of research you do? Probably just got lucky in the jumps season, my research for Cheltenham was about 30-45 minutes each day and I came out with a big profit. Thanks for the feedback though, probably just shows I need to change my approach, I'm kind of still analysing races on the basics like ground/distance instead of going more in-depth and watching previous runs, looking at race pace, things like that.[/quote'] I do make a long term profit but never take it for granted - I don't even like to say/type it to be honest - I know what my instinct says when other people claim it!! I make nowhere near as much as I once did and it's no coincidence that I don't have as much time as I once did. Replays are absolute key though... I mean you can't watch every single horse in every single race, every single day but if you try to watch the finishes at the end of the day you can make notes/compile ratings off the back of it and go from there. Personally, (with the flat) I like to be looking at Wednesday's potential bets 48 hours before or as soon as the declarations are made and so on and so on. I'm behind this week but it's not suprising given that it's Royal Ascot and will be burning the midnight oil. It shouldn't do - but I am completely aware that the wheels may come off at some point and that the next losing run is definatly only around the corner. I struggle with them bigtime and am constantly considering different staking plans/strategy to make them a bit easier to deal with... EG - backed Quarabba in the 425 but manahged to lay stake back in running. That sort of thing works for me but won't do for everyone... Don't just read my drivel on the subject though - many a good book to read out there - even if it's just so you can disagree with them! Have a read of the PL interviews too - I think they are at the top of the page somewhere... Lots of good advice in there (as well as some utter nonsence too!!:p)

[erhaab1965]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit? I have to agree with you there Dannn17 , its very hard to find winners flat or jumps . Now we have more tools and information available to us its even harder , sometimes with the extra information we have at our disposal , leads us down the wrong path. And if anybody sniffs out any sort of value it can be gone within minutes , so yes it is a lot harder now. There is a minority who make it pay , but for the majority if we don't access to inside information then its going to be a struggle. Trainers such as Ferdy Murphy , B Ellison , G Baker , D Flood are good trainers but don't expect them to win when the form tells you so , they'll pull your pants down when you least expect them to , so without prior knowledge we are sometimes doomed.

[erhaab1965]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit? Take a look at the results of the major races over the last 12 /24 months and very few of them could have been selected months/ weeks /days prior to the event.

[Chaostheorie]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit?

look at Homecoming Queen' date=' bolts up in the 1000 Guineas then look at her two previous runs, just can't explain it really.[/quote'] She got the easy lead in the 1000Gns..she is a front-runner. Today it was more like a suicidal pace, several front-runners fighting for the lead and get tired. In this case held-up horses have a tactical advantage.

[Darran]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit? Focus on your strengths. If you struggle to make money on the Flat then dont have a bet on it. I have probably got slightly lucky this week as I have done pretty well given I hardly watch any Flat racing. In my view 30-45 mins on a Cheltenham card is nowhere near enough to do it justice although it clearly paid off for you. I would say you would want to be looking to do that on one race to give it justice.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit? I was thinking the same thing as you at the start of the season but gradually by sticking to my principles and not getting carried away by hype or silly bets I have continued to have a decent level of success. Reading what other people put on here is also a big help, especially in races you dont do so well in. My 2yo strike rate has gone up after looking at what certain people on here have put and what they look out for.

[harrisman]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit? Hi Not posted for a while because of other things in life keeping me really busy A few thoughts from my own 'journey' if you like. You need to decide yourself what your 'punting' will be is it just a bit of a craic? or do you want to make long term hopefully substantial profits from it? If it's the latter then just like Saint wrote earlier you need to put the time in for research. I had a similar experience when I first started just over 2 years ago with numerous winners for the first month or so on the summer jumps cards especially in Ireland. Of course that didn't last and when I look back I realise in some respects how far I have travelled although as always still loads of ways to improve. One of the big problems I feel with the flat is the large amount of meetings-others may disagree but I feel the only way to be succesful in that area is to specialise. There are so many things to take into consideration (even before you look at the prices for a particular race) and as racing in particular is very much a matter of opinions how you assess yourself all the factors leading to a selection. slightly going off at a tangent for a moment I think maybe one of the most important things the punter needs is psychological- I feel you both need to be passionate about the sport (as you will tend then to keep as well imformed as possible because of your interest and the more you know the better in my opinion) but also an ability to be extremely disciplined when it comes to 'investing' your money appropriately in a cold analytical way. Strangely enough some of the best things I have learnt have been negative-IE what not to do. I have found it really instructive spending time in various betting shops quietly observing the methods of various generally unsuccesful punters 95% of whom seem to bet in a completely emotional fashion-rushing around from race to race making selections in 30 seconds for the next one. dogs in between and the machines etc. Fine if it's their means of entertainment it's their choice but it

[BAGS is BENT]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit?

The weather this year has not been a massive help to be fair(on the flat)

Thats putting it mildly!!!!!! The ground keeps changing all the time!!,you would expect to have a sustained reasonably lengthy period of GOOD/FIRM ground across the board,thus giving the form a chance to bed in and get settled.Thas has not happened this year,for me you might as well throw the formbook out of the window!!!,as IMHO you get countless false results on soft/heavy ground. The worst year for FLAT racing for as long as i can remember

[GILLY57]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit? I have to disagree; when the going becomes soft you can often eliminate 70%+ of the field in a race - read about the optimum conditions for a horse and you have a major advantage. Soft / heavy conditions can be an advantage (of horses that will run well with conditions that suit) if you identify and use this knowledge - most punters do not.

[robertob]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit? Agree with GILLY57. Soft ground is a fine thing because you can eliminate a whole lot of horses indeed. However have to agree with the other guys as well, the ground is not that easy to predict this season so far, but don't think it's the biggest of problems. A look on the BHA site often helps to get an indication what kind of ground can be expected: http://www.britishhorseracing.com/goracing/racing/going/default.asp I think ground is more an issue in Ireland than in GB as in GB you get all the information and updates unlike in Ireland where not enough tracks give you a proper update about the ground. It often is the case that the racecards of RP or ATR having the ground Good To Firm for example but as someone who is living here fortunately I know it rained allot the last 24h so I know fast ground is rather unlikely. It's still guess-work however.

[The Saint]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit?

I have to disagree; when the going becomes soft you can often eliminate 70%+ of the field in a race - read about the optimum conditions for a horse and you have a major advantage. Soft / heavy conditions can be an advantage (of horses that will run well with conditions that suit) if you identify and use this knowledge - most punters do not.

I hear what you are saying - I guess it depends on how you go about your analysis. Apart from the usual, mine is based on how far I believe a selection to be ahead of their hcap mark - it's really frustrating when one I have say 10lbs ahead turns up on soft that he/she is untried on. Generally speaking though, it's reflected in the price and unless there is strong evidence that it won't go on the ground, it doesn't tend to put me off - this may well be a failing in my part but I think I'm more inclined to play as I am finding bets so much harder to come by these days... Lack of value, being too tight with money, struggling with losing runs etc. I think I should just stay out when the ground becomes extreme - IE - soft or heavy... I believe that most decent selections should be able to win from g/s to g/f - listening to the pissing rain coming down again this evening though (Dorset) I can't see there being decent ground for a few days now...:(

[The Saint]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit?

Hi Not posted for a while because of other things in life keeping me really busy A few thoughts from my own 'journey' if you like. You need to decide yourself what your 'punting' will be is it just a bit of a craic? or do you want to make long term hopefully substantial profits from it? If it's the latter then just like Saint wrote earlier you need to put the time in for research. I had a similar experience when I first started just over 2 years ago with numerous winners for the first month or so on the summer jumps cards especially in Ireland. Of course that didn't last and when I look back I realise in some respects how far I have travelled although as always still loads of ways to improve. One of the big problems I feel with the flat is the large amount of meetings-others may disagree but I feel the only way to be succesful in that area is to specialise. There are so many things to take into consideration (even before you look at the prices for a particular race) and as racing in particular is very much a matter of opinions how you assess yourself all the factors leading to a selection. slightly going off at a tangent for a moment I think maybe one of the most important things the punter needs is psychological- I feel you both need to be passionate about the sport (as you will tend then to keep as well imformed as possible because of your interest and the more you know the better in my opinion) but also an ability to be extremely disciplined when it comes to 'investing' your money appropriately in a cold analytical way. Strangely enough some of the best things I have learnt have been negative-IE what not to do. I have found it really instructive spending time in various betting shops quietly observing the methods of various generally unsuccesful punters 95% of whom seem to bet in a completely emotional fashion-rushing around from race to race making selections in 30 seconds for the next one. dogs in between and the machines etc. Fine if it's their means of entertainment it's their choice but it

Cracking Post - agree with most of it. Would take about 3 minutes tops to see that most people in Betting Shops are utterly clueless though!! ;) I'd find it painful to observe them for too much longer. Had years of listening to half baked theories... The worse and most obvious mistake people in betting shps make, is that they only bet when they have money. That might sound obvious - but if they haven't got money on the day they really fancy one and it wins at 10/1 then all the other 'social' losing bets are even more costly! They have no long term plan or structure to their betting and are destined to lose. Fair enough if it's a social thing for folk - I just don't see it myself....

[GILLY57]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit? I genuinely think that the underfoot conditions are more significant than anything else - horses can run up to 14 lbs better or worse on favoured (or unfavourable) ground - use this properly and it really helps to give you an advantage. As for the majority of betting shop punters, I'm afraid they are usually unwilling to learn and in reality these are the very people that you should be using to obtain value (and profit). The bookmaker will have his profit from these characters so you need to obtain your share. It might be a callous approach but they will inevitably lose anyway' so why let the bookie benefit in isolation. I rarely venture into betting shops now as everything is available on line and it allows you to be more dispassionate about your betting and you are not swayed by listening to alternative views which invariably make you doubt your own opinions.

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit? Too many NR's these days and its down to the clerks as just as much as the weather in my opinion. Its completely change the make up of the race and its pretty dangerous these days to back a horse with real confidence without first seeing a couple of races at that particular meeting and its a no bet if its in the first race and your not sure of the ground. Also changes the betting market so much and i'm sure bookies love a NR so that they can re shuffle their odds to their hearts content and pass on the R4's to us. How many times lately have the races been slower or faster than the going would usually indicate, its becoming embarrassing especially on the flat. Clerks have a duty to get good declarations, i understand that, they need their races filled up so they get the races awarded for the next season, especially listed and conditions races for the smaller courses. If a lowly rated horse wins any of these contests they can get downgraded in the future, its all a load of crap. These 48hr decs are a nightmare, it may be good so we can get an early look at a race but it defeats the object if we get half the field not turning up because we have had a shower or two. Just look at how many get pulled out after the first race and the jockeys have reported back to the trainers with the 'correct' going, its scandalous an unfair on the betting public and nothing is said! Done now:ok

[Trotter]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit? Good point BH.......I've just put my BBotD up for Ponty tomorrow. My horse will probably run because he acts on heavy but it wouldn't be a surprise if there were half a dozen non runners and it becomes a totally different race and with R4 my horse will be half the odds it is now and odds at which i wouldn't have bothered with it Non runners are a real pain................. Personally 48 hour decs are meaningless to me as i study the next days races in the evening, so 24 hours would be fine What is the argument for 48 hours ?..........is it just to assist the papers, websites etc to get info up and printed or online ?..........can't really think of any other reason !

[erhaab1965]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit? No amount of studying would have pointed you in the direction of the Barney Curley/Chris Grant 4 horse gamble 2 years ago , without inside information most of us are fighting a losing battle. The Racing Post supplements published for the Cheltenham Festival and Royal Ascot often gives us losing tips , if the paid proffessionals cannot get it right then our task is even harder. Having re read the one produced for this week if you took their advice you'd would be in the red this week.

[harrisman]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit?

No amount of studying would have pointed you in the direction of the Barney Curley/Chris Grant 4 horse gamble 2 years ago , without inside information most of us are fighting a losing battle. The Racing Post supplements published for the Cheltenham Festival and Royal Ascot often gives us losing tips , if the paid proffessionals cannot get it right then our task is even harder. Having re read the one produced for this week if you took their advice you'd would be in the red this week.

I guess one advantage of reading those reports though and looking at their selections is that you may well find them good laying material as so many people follow their selections and they are over bet and go off at much shorter prices than should be the case really hence maybe a good value lay. I have been following an approach this year, I hesitate to call it a system, as it is quite flexible in some regards, but it involves laying some particularly well known jocks at some of the smaller tracks and meetings where statistically they have done particularly badly in the past- even at small stakes so far the results have been excellent as they are inevitably over bet by the betting shop 'fodder' and hence very good value lays. anyway to return to the discussion about the going-this is an area fraught with complications if you ask me.as an earlier poster discussed there are obviously conflicting interests at work here-the courses need as many runners to run as possible so sometimes the published going reports are generally on the optimistic side-one that I find particularly irritating is GS soft in places-you can interprete that in numerous ways obviously-which is obviously what the courses want! To me I think the going is a much more complicated matter than it may at first appear and of more significance at certain courses and over certain distances.I myself am wary of just looking at previous results on soft/heavy going as they need to reviewed in the light of what was actually achieved on the race in question-it may well have been an shocking race and f all was beaten really, this also ties in with the 'action' of a horse-just beacuse it may have a high knee action which is generally considered an advantage on softish going it stillneeds to have some ability from a cardio-vascular (fitness)point of view and have shown that in the past with the times achieved-often the value bet in a race on soft going is the best horse in general on terms of previous ability shown (and assuming a good current level of fitness and trainer form etc)-and if the connections still run it I would regard that as a small recomendation in itself. Going back to the description of the going again I think it needs to reviewed as well in the light of the type of course involved and an area I think people may well find fruitful for further evaluation is to consider the natural geology and landscape as well of structure of particular courses, and how a spell of rain will effect the going-it will be quite different for different courses.I don't have a complete 'handle' on this yet but it strikes me as an area for further detailed research due to the unique variables in the natural features of the courses in these islands and may well yield some very useful handicapping figures and maybe some good value bets in the future.

[Cowan]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit?

Going back to the description of the going again I think it needs to reviewed as well in the light of the type of course involved and an area I think people may well find fruitful for further evaluation is to consider the natural geology and landscape as well of structure of particular courses, and how a spell of rain will effect the going-it will be quite different for different courses.I don't have a complete 'handle' on this yet but it strikes me as an area for further detailed research due to the unique variables in the natural features of the courses in these islands and may well yield some very useful handicapping figures and maybe some good value bets in the future.

I'm in the process of creating a guide to all the UK Flat Courses. It has draw figures for each distance, historical pace bias, course configuration, terrain groupings, and stiffness index. It'll be finished this year - at the moment I just update it when I have a bet at a course. Regarding Going. It doesn't come into my analysis much. A secondary factor at best. Only rule I have with going is 'don't bet when it's heavy'.

[harrisman]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit?

I'm in the process of creating a guide to all the UK Flat Courses. It has draw figures for each distance, historical pace bias, course configuration, terrain groupings, and stiffness index. It'll be finished this year - at the moment I just update it when I have a bet at a course. Regarding Going. It doesn't come into my analysis much. A secondary factor at best. Only rule I have with going is 'don't bet when it's heavy'.

that sounds very interesting (the guide I mean)-even though my main focus is on the NH game. I do like the flat though-especially the quirky courses- I'm quite fond of Brighton and Ffos las- no doubt that is a pretty small fan club! and Hexham, Fontwell and Kelso in the NH game.I'm interested in why you don't consider the going much in your analysis. I actually think it's very important although in maybe a more subtle way than at first sight.Strangely enough I love to bet when it's heavy!-then you know what you are dealing with! It's GS soft in places I can't stand-a very unsatisfactory compromise! I've got fond memories of your neck of the woods sunbathing, amazingly, on top of Schiehallion 10 years ago! Must get to see some NH action at Scone one day!

[chris34]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit?

Too many NR's these days and its down to the clerks as just as much as the weather in my opinion. Its completely change the make up of the race and its pretty dangerous these days to back a horse with real confidence without first seeing a couple of races at that particular meeting and its a no bet if its in the first race and your not sure of the ground. Also changes the betting market so much and i'm sure bookies love a NR so that they can re shuffle their odds to their hearts content and pass on the R4's to us. How many times lately have the races been slower or faster than the going would usually indicate, its becoming embarrassing especially on the flat. Clerks have a duty to get good declarations, i understand that, they need their races filled up so they get the races awarded for the next season, especially listed and conditions races for the smaller courses. If a lowly rated horse wins any of these contests they can get downgraded in the future, its all a load of crap. These 48hr decs are a nightmare, it may be good so we can get an early look at a race but it defeats the object if we get half the field not turning up because we have had a shower or two. Just look at how many get pulled out after the first race and the jockeys have reported back to the trainers with the 'correct' going, its scandalous an unfair on the betting public and nothing is said! Done now:ok

This is exactly why I have been very quiet recently with myself looking at racing the night before the never ending list of non runners makes things very frustrating and totally changing the makeup of a race such as pace and even draw perhaps why people are finding this season so hard?? I believe Trotter 48hr decs were brought in on the flat because it helped us sell the rights abroad to our racing (people abroad not interested in jump racing so 24hr decs works for that)

[Trotter]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit? Cheers for the info Chris.........this 48 hour thing happened while I was on an extended break from the sport so i wasn't aware of the arguments around it Having come back and found it in place I liked it at first because I could look ahead a couple of days giving extra time to pick and study any races of interest But I'm going off it because of the non runner thing !

[The Saint]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit?

Cheers for the info Chris.........this 48 hour thing happened while I was on an extended break from the sport so i wasn't aware of the arguments around it Having come back and found it in place I liked it at first because I could look ahead a couple of days giving extra time to pick and study any races of interest But I'm going off it because of the non runner thing !

On the 48 hours thing - I have to say 'I love it'! In the respect that it helps you plan a day off for one - I'm fairly sure I won't be having a bet tomorrow and with that in mind am relaxed - if the decs for tomorrow were only available at 11 today, I'd be stuck in and not being able to commit to anything else at this stage... I do appreciate the NR aspect of things and it's probably no conincidence that one of my weaknesses when it comes to punting is a poor analysis of how a race might be run... Not everytime - but more often than I would like...

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit? Its not twelve o clock yet and we have 39 NR's today in the UK Anyone looking at the form yesterday for some of these races and trying to assess value is now scratching their heads, i know we have plenty of rain knocking about but you wonder why its difficult to weigh up the form and consistently make the right decisions? Hereford has only gone good to soft in places, its not heavy or anything? Would like to bet that its proper soft ground after the first race, anyone betting on the distances should go high!

[Kithanga]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit?

I think it is' date=' I know there are people out there who do but there is just so much you have to take into consideration when you analyse the races. Ground, distance, draw and the race pace are just the few essential things you have to look at, with the jumps it is so much easier to analyse the form as there isn't really much to analyse, just distance and maybe jumping abilities, ground doesn't play as big part as in the flat imo. It could just be this season, it hasn't helped with the rain I suppose, look at Homecoming Queen, bolts up in the 1000 Guineas then look at her two previous runs, just can't explain it really.[/quote'] Maybe you're taking too much into consideration. Try deciding what your main factors are and then use the remainder to influence the level of confidence for finalising either the selection or the stake. For example, you may consider last time out rating (current form) and suitability of the track, ground and distance to be key. Use these to filter the runners to a smaller sample, maybe even one selection. Then look at the likely pace, draw and other factors like trainer form and jockey to narrow down to a selection or to give extra confidence or otherwise.

[dannn17]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit? I always look at ground/distance/form and then like you say I will look at the likes of draw, stable form, track etc as like my secondary factors to narrow more Horses down. Tbh on the top class racing, the class 1 stuff then I do very well but then when I try and have a go on anything class 2 and below I'm just useless.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit?

Its not twelve o clock yet and we have 39 NR's today in the UK Anyone looking at the form yesterday for some of these races and trying to assess value is now scratching their heads, i know we have plenty of rain knocking about but you wonder why its difficult to weigh up the form and consistently make the right decisions? Hereford has only gone good to soft in places, its not heavy or anything? Would like to bet that its proper soft ground after the first race, anyone betting on the distances should go high!

I read your post before I set off to Ponty yesterday and then had a little laugh to myself when after about the 3rd race they changed the going to soft, heavy in places. I parked on the golf course and walked across the grass to the grandstand, it was like a bog. I'd looked at form for soft/heavy on purpose as I know what it's like there after a lot of rain. Loads of non runners there too and possibly because the going description was not as described. Thanks to Whoneedsrio for taking the following photo: [ATTACH]2722[/ATTACH]