BBOTD Saturday 18th of February

[Aidymac]

:drums

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February *Some Target - Haydock 3:20* Think this Mullins horse has a big chance tomorrow. On its only ever run over 3m 4f, it won. That was at Punchestown last year and it won comfortably. It is a thorough stayer, and even the 3 miles of late it has been running over is too short. Was 6th to On His Own recently in a big field, staying on late in the day. It was also 4th in the Troytown which was a good run. Mullins is very dangerous, especially when he brings one across the water and should have the horse ripe for this race. It is an ultra-competitive race but has a good shout all the same. *1 Point WIN @ 9/1 VC BOG*

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February 3.25 Lingfield Round 7 of the Blue Square Sprint Series and a few newcomers to this series and one makes a lot of appeal to me. Nubar Boy won one of these last week having been running with promise prior to that, needs a very strong race and for it to fall apart Royal Intruder tee'd it up nicely for him last week and could well do the same here again today so if so a 3lb rise doesnt look over harsh but had already been creeping up the weights this winter so does need to find a bit more. Waterloo Dock is best when he is able to dominate like he did in an apprentice handicap over CD in January not so good last twice unable to get to the front and similar story here from the dreaded stall 1. A chance is given to Cliffords Reprieve to continue his upwards curve at his first try over this trip on this surface, he ran a career best last time out when only just failing to reel in Chjimes over 5f around here, unfortunately the winner has since let the form down a bit but it was run in a good time and although 2lb higher could well find some more improvement in current mood with this step up in trip. 1pt win Cliffords Reprieve 11/2 VC

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February 1500 ascot little josh .5 ew 20/1 boylesport back in trip should be to "joshs" liking, goes on any ground although well beaten last time out, and a long lay off, this trip may prove to be his best chance in getting back to winning ways

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February 2.25 ascot qhilmar 1pt win 16/1 VC bet This horse put in a much better performance lto at sandown where he finished 3rd behind the progressive hold on julio and the much higher rated Neptune colognes. He does have to race from out of the weights here but if building on that run or putting in a similar performance then he could run a big race from the front. Stable still in good form so hopeful of a good run

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February 3:35 Ascot: Dunraven Storm e/w 16/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 1234) Dunraven Storm is lightly raced and could still be progressing. His comeback run at Taunton a month ago should have been a decent pipe opener, he ran quite fresh and then was slightly hampered, however he will hopefully come on for that. Dunraven Storm was hiked up the weights after running second to Cue Card at Cheltenham and at one point was rated 150. He is now ten pounds lower and that with his course form makes him of interest today. Dunraven Storms defeat of Recession Proof here reads well in light of that one's subsequent efforts. The extra distance may also bring about some improvement, Dunraven Storm is related to National winner Red Marauder and is by the same sire as Denman.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February 2.50 Lingfield Lockantanks - strong traveller that ran well when second over CD last time. Races off same mark and should go well from a low draw under Luke Morris. 7/1 PP, 1 pt win

[The Saint]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February 0510 Flemington Park – Hay List – 0.5 EW SP Had a quick butchers at the rules and I think this is ok – if not then please scratch with my apologies. I can’t pretend this is anything other than a calculated maths decision given the shape of the projected market. Wonder Mare Black Caviar is very short and is of course likely to win. On the off chance that the trainers late change of heart and a quick reappearance leave her short, Hay List looks the most likely to benefit from any slip up having been successful in multiple Group Ones before todays(Saturdays) Lightening Stakes. If I could be bothered to stay up and find someone to lay ew on this race, the obvious strategy would be to lay the win part back and let the place bet ride at inflated odds. I’m knackered though and can’t be arsed to get accounts blocked for the sake of one race! Good Luck All.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February 10.35 Turffontein: Wyatt West @ 5/6 sportingbet This horse is unbelievable. Still a maiden after 13 races but finished in ALL 13 races in the money. He finished 2nd in the last three starts and it might look like as he just does not want to win. However, he had a mountain to climb the last two times, in particular in the last race. From the widest and therefore the worst draw of all he had to start the race and was 400m out still 12 lengths off the pace. But he travelled like a dream, finished like a train and passed the eventual winner just after the winning post. Unlucky. The motto for tomorrow is of course: Now or never! He won't find a weaker race to win. It is a bit of a worry that first timer Stormy Gold gets loads of money and that Wyatt West is drifting, but he should be way shorter than his current price anyway.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February 320 Haydock: Always Right 1pt (15/2 Boylesports) I think this horse has a touch of class on his day and won at Kelso earlier in the year with soemthing in hand, was well fancied by connections that day and was made favourite to win the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby next time out. At first it looked a disappointing run but later on it was found out he had suffered some kind of reaction to something and that run can be best ignored, he was travelling well that day and if he had won he would have gone up another few pounds but in fact went down a pound so is well weighted in my eyes. A lot of exposed types line up here and I just think he's the only really progressive runner in the race and should be around the 4/1 mark. For each way backers he looks a good bet and some firms are offering 4 places with only 14 runners, who said bookies were tight!

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February CROWN COUNSEL (14:50) has had its price contracted almost in half during Friday evening but still remains value at this 7/1 price, mainly as it will almost be sure to have benefitted from a break it and it’s likely to have the run of the race today, and from a yard in form is well worth chancing. A capable performer during the summer, regularly running to ratings in the mid-90’s, his form nosedived towards the end of the season. This could have been due to the fact he had got through plenty of racing in 2011, especially as it was his first season (only debuted in February). Another plausible reason could be that the summer fast ground faded away, as most of his best performances came on a quicker surface. That being said, his last two runs were horrible even if he disliked the ground. I do envisage a much bolder performance today though. Firstly, the 105 day absence will have certainly freshened him up and this yard can obviously get one ready after a break, especially when they’re in such fine fettle (35% in February). There is also a distinct lack of a front-runner in this contest, and this could well lead to Crown Counsel being allowed his own way towards the front. He’s lead before and ran big races so it looks likely that a similar tactic could be used today, especially from a fair draw in stall 5. If so, a mark of 86 would be very workable indeed, as I’d potentially have him running to around 98 or so if back on song. Whether he is, and whether he’s allowed to be prominent is another question, but he looks worthy of a decent bet as he could well prove very difficult to pass and racing over what is arguably his best trip, off a excellent looking mark for an in-form yard, he looks a value price at 7/1, as I had him at around a 9/2 chance. Disappointing that the price had gone but that’s overnight prices for you. 14:50 Lingfield – Crown Counsel; 1pt @ 7/1 Ladbrokes (bog)

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February 14:25 Ascot: Massini's Maguire, 16/1 Bet365, 0.5pt e/w Massini's Maguire was pulled up lto on his first run in over a year at this course. He has won his two other runs at Ascot, one at today's distance in a listed race. Trainer David Pipe has a 20% strike rate at Ascot and jockey Tom Scudamore is in the saddle. Hopefully whatever was wrong lto has been sorted and Massini's Maguire runs a big race today.

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February Tarooq - 2.50 Lin (1pt win 10-1 WH BOG) Great career record of of four wins, five seconds and two thirds from only 14 runs. Beaten less than two lengths over CD LTO after getting trapped on the rail. Fine apprentice Raul De Silva takes over the ride this time, and he takes off a valuable 5lb.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February 2.25 Ascot - 1pt win Cappa Bleu @ 8/1 (Boyles) Interesting 3 mile handicap chase but I am quite keen on the chances of Evan Williams' classy sort. Has only run 7 times under rules so hasn't had too much racing as a 10-year-old, and he appears as good as ever recently, with both runs this season proving to be very good efforts. Over eighteen months off the track were no problem for him as he narrowly held on to win a chase at Haydock in November from Tamarinbleu, who has won since, so that effort looks strong, and suggests that there is still some scope to win off his amended higher mark. Went to the Welsh national last time and put in a very encouraging effort. In the end, the trip on the heavy ground probably was just a little too testing. He travelled and jumped well, though, giving plenty of weight to the first two, and finished in 3rd without too many questions asked by his pilot. The first two dominated the race and he didn't have the hardest race out of those in the field. Suggested that he was still at the top of his game and a return to the bare three miles would suit him down to the ground. There appears some scope off his current mark of 147, and I'm not sure this race will be enough of a test for a couple of those towards the head of the market. Big run on the cards.

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February 2.50 Lingfield MR WILLIS @ 7/1 bog Bet365 Feature race of this Saturday at Lingfield Park, it's the Get Your Bet On At Blue Square Handicap Cl2 1m (4yo+ 0-100) with 12 runners. My selection is Mr Willis a 6yo trained by Terry Clement who showed very good form last time out over C&D finishing 3rd 1 1/4L behind Amitola after an unlucky race as the gap came too late and he was still last 2f out but flashed home in the last 200 yards overtaking the first two just few meters after the post. He is still lightly raced (26 starts) and even if last win came in December 2009 (over C&D) he won 5 tiems and all here at Lingfield and his form has been improving a lot in the last couple of months as perfectly shown by his performances since December: 3rd at Wolverhampton over 7f 2 3/4L behind Clockmaker receiving 3lb to the rival and 1/2L behind the same rival off the same mark and carrying the same weight two weeks later here at Lingfield over 1m and third with super finish last time out as written above. In his second last start he was 6th but just 1 1/4L behind Loyalty, top weight today and one of the main rivals, but he gains 4lb over that rival and his form has surely improved during the last 2 months. You could make a case for most of the other runners but the main point is that I see more room for improvements for Mr Willis compared to all of them and since he was very close to many of them when still not at the top of his form (Loyalty, Night Lily, Lockantanks) I hope he can beat them all in today's race.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February 3:15 Gowran - Zaidpour - Back Despite the fact that this is a Grade 2, the level opposition he faces here is the weakest he's faced in a while and this looks a golden opportunity to bag the hat-trick before heading to Cheltenham. He can sometimes disappoint when expected to win but he seems to becoming more mature and putting those days behind him and I fancy him to do this nicely 1pt win @ 1/4 Paddy Power BOG

[skylark2009]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February 3.10 Wincanton - Hunt Ball - Ha hasn't done anything wrong this season with 4 1st's and a 2nd under his belt. He's progressed from a rating of 69 on his first win to today's rating of 117 and could still be capable of more. The form coming out of his penultimate race has produced three next time out winners and some places. His last race has also been franked when Buffalo Bob won next time out. He is a course/distance winner at this level and looks to be very progressive, so could possibly be the one to beat today. 3.10 Wincanton: Hunt Ball - 1pt win @ 10/3 Boylesport (BOG)

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February H3.55 Palace Jester 0.5pt E/W 18/1 BetVictor This horse ticks lots of boxes, it's lightly raced, improving and will love the soft conditions. The step up in trip last time out when trying 3 miles for the first time resulted in a dead heat for 1st when a claimer was on board. Richie McLernon takes the ride today and he's won on the horse before. The horse is up in the handicap but it's less exposed than a lot of these and will stay the trip in testind conditions which a lot of these won't. It looks sure to run its race at a nice e/w price.

[fosterbet5]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February THE MINACK - 14:25 ascot 13/2 sj this horse seems to be a class above the rest , there are many good runners today but going through the factors theres only one option and at 13/2 its a steal . he runs off the back of a very impressive last two runs and always seems to go well but is bang on lately . is top weight by a mile but i think can power through this due to the calabre of the horse and given the ground is generaly good . this horse also had CD and won over CD last time out off 11-1 on soft which is just 2lbs lower than todays run and beat some classy company . he looks ready to win and ruby riding which is always a huge plus

[punterpete]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February 2.10 Haydock Ambion Wood win @ 6/1 Bet365 Connections seem to hold this one in high regard so they obviously think he wull han dle the step up in trip. Very consistent in all starts so far in bumpers and hurdles never being out of the top two. Looked good last time out when finishing half a length behind Cotton Mill at Warwick and there should be more improvement to come.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February Ling 1.10 - Clean Bowled - win at 9/4 Stan James Won easily last time when dropped into claiming company beating today's main market rival by 10 lengths Crowning Star might be better suited by todays slightly shorter trip on a tighter track but 10 lengths is an awful lot to make up Flying Pickets saves his best for the Fibresand The other look well up against it at the weights Hopefully Clean Bowled can afford to run a bit below what he did at wolves and still win !

[Kithanga]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February Ascot 1.50 Invictus 7-1 (bog) Bet Victor Worth taking a chance that this progressive youngster can give the two market leaders something to think about at the prices. He jumped really well and was just done for pace at Cheltenham last time and there's every chance that this step up in trip at a course he's won at previously will suit.

[kroni]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February 2:25 Ascot Pearlysteps @ 7/1 e-w bet365 In good form lately, like when decent 2nd lto and looks a safe option here e-w. He may prefer softer going but im sure theres race like this in him hopefully its today. Just 7 chase starts including 1 win and 4 places shows hes pretty consistant and overall is quite lightly raced so not out of the question he could still find a little improvement.

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February 3.00 - Ascot - Little Josh 0.5 EW @ 14/1 Bet365 BOG Taking a chance on an outsider in this one with Little Josh. Favourite Riverside Theatre hasn't run for over a year and with Kauto Stone yet to win in the UK i think its worth taking a chance outside of these two in the betting. They are not the only dangers but Little Josh who made his reappearnace at Cheltenham last month after a year out will have needed the run and should be better for that today. The shorter trip today should also help him and i believe he holds value as an each way shot.

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February Ascot 1.50 - Bobs Worth - 1pt Win 2/1 PP I'll willing to forgive Bobs Worth his last run and think he can reverse form with the favourite. He just didn't seem the same horse to me that day and never seemed to get into the race properly. This stiffer track could play more to his strength and he's a horse I have a soft spot for. At the prices he's definitely a bet for me. Henderson's horses running really well and he could be more race fit today.

[anokazr]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February 3.00 ascot tatenen 0.5 ew 20/1 ladbrokes. would have gone with riverside theatre or kauto stone but no value there, this one won at this course, going and distance 5 minutes ago, in an alright field, not quite like this lot but still. im really only chasing a fifth of 20/1.

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February 5pm Haydock - Unowotimeen e/w at 25/1 Betvictor most of these in line up arent that great including this but worth a chance. 3rd lto in a ptp , albeit a bit fortunate when 3rd fell and most likely would have came 4th if not , winner that day Billyvoddan is a decent sort in pointing , once rated 150 so cant say it was too bad a run to come 22L behind. over rules is quite lightly raced , with only 7 runs and hasnt raced under rules since feb 2010 when a 5L 2nd in a hunters chase ,and back in may 07 it beat Barber Shop who was decent. looking at the horses form it seems it prefers under-foot conditions and imo alot of these wont like that today and stays all of the 3miles , race fit , ptp only 50 or so days ago , and with a capable rider in samantha drake , this can belie its price

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February CAPTAIN SUNSHINE 4.10 Ascot. 1 point win. Trip and ground suits and open to show more improvement. Is expected to progress into a decent horse, so looks to have every chance of a win today. Pace of the race looks suitable, if they race as expected. 3/1 Ladbrokes BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February Crunched 4.35 Lingfield. 1 point win. Blinkers go on today and that can only help in my opinion. Should improve for them, so with the surface and trip not a concern, I feel he'll improve a few pounds and win. 11/4 Paddy Power (bog)

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 18th of February Some cracking winners today lads. Especially Kev and Smith's 25/1 and 16/1 winners. Superb