BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February

[Aidymac]

:ok

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February *Thunderstruck - Wolverhampton 3:50* I am taking this horse to get me out of a bad barren spell, i backed it at the start of January when it won for me at 20/1 at Lingfield, and its last run can be excused at it was from a wide draw which scuppered its chance. Is only 4 pound higher than the last win and is in what looks like an easier race with less runners, so Ian Mongan may be able to dominate this race from the front? It is still a well treated horse in my opinion and should be a shorter price than it is currently trading. *1 Point WIN @ 15/2 Bet365 BOG*

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 16:50 Wolverhampton Miss Cato Win (4,33) Betvictor The young filly got an impressive start to her career. Two wins on fibersand and the latest looking quite convincing. Miss Cato goes up 6lb for that win, but a 4l win comands respect. There are some promising horses in this field and especially Gabrials King and Meet Joe Black could be right up there. Miss Cato won over a mile and the extra furlong should not be a problem.

[Dtrains]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 1.30 southwell LA CAPRIOSA best be quick as price contracting, basically handicapper given him a real chance here thought he ran really well over 6 last time, but handicapper dropped him another 1lb which puts the icing on the cake, apprentice takes off 5lb so basically running off a mark of 60, will be far to quick for them off this mark, and to top it all off last time he dropped into to basement class 6 race he hacked up!!! 1pt win 7/2 willhill

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 2.50 Wolverhampton Beneath 1pt win @ 6/1 Paddy Power This horse ran an encouraging race on his return to action from over 100 days off. In his last 3 or 4 races they have been running him over inadequate trips but today he gets a return to 12f which is certain to suit. Adam Kirby rides him again which is a positive and the stable are in cracking form with all of their horses at the moment. This will only be his 7th run for the stable and I expect him to build on his 3rd last time out over 9f at this track.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 1410 clonmel 1pt win is herself about won 2 hurdle races in heavy conditionsover 2 miles, and has got the heavy going today, 4th last time out over 2mile 2f, return to 2 mile should help,davy russell takes the ride and the drop in grade should help to get into winners enclosure

[The Saint]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 130 Southwell – No Mean Trick – 4/1 BOG, Power & Hills Looks bombproof to me and I feel he should be a clear favourite. Very consistent winning 2 and being placed on 4 occassions from 7 starts on the AW. Posted best effort last time over CD behind Ghostwing. Fearful of Fear Nothing but in the main, the others looked priced on what they may achieve again as opposed to what they have achieved more recently. At the prices, I’m more than happy with No Mean Trick who’s Jockey has ridden 3 winners from his 8 rides in 2012. Drops a class today and hard to keep out of the 3 imho.

[LJD]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February Hinton Admiral - 2.20 Wolverhampton I've had this horse before and it's been in cracking form recently. The Trainer, Keith Dalgleish, and the jockey, Joe Fanning have also been in blazing form recently. This horse has been running at this sort level and picked up a win in a seller in its second run in 2012. It had a second here in a claimer over further and was just pipped by a neck to a pretty decent horse in the form of DrawnFromThePast. It has won over course and distance which is a plus and has a 50% course and distance strike rate. Hinton Admiral win @ SP

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 3.50 Southwell: D'urberville @ 11/4 Paddy Power He gave an eye-catching reappearance lto after 391 days off the track. He travelled really well for a long time of the race and was last off the bridle but just faded in the final furlong. He finished eventually third and 5¼ lengths beaten by Dashing Eddie but I think he can turn the form tomorrow because he will be much sharper with that run under his belt and DE is now 7lb worse in the weights compared to the last race. D'urberville definitely loves it at Southwell as he ran 6x here, won 2x and was 3x placed. He's a clear favourite in my book for the race tomorrow.

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February Backing LUCTOR EMERGO (16:50) may look insane in comparison to his form figures in maiden company, where in three starts he’s only beaten 7 horses to the finish. That being said, he starts life in handicaps off a mark of 46 and on pedigree, he would win this race at a canter. Of course, breeding can mean very little but I just get the distinct feeling that they’ve been wanting to get this one a really low mark and back to conditions that should suit, with first-time blinkers applied that have brought success for a close relative of him, he can easily outrun this price-tag for a yard in form. The selection was green on debut in a big-field Newcastle maiden, before seemingly not handling fibresand on his second start. It was then a bit bewildering why they attempted to try again at Southwell for his third start, and it was quite an odd-looking run too. After not facing the kickback, he made a modicum of late headway under considerate handling throughout, but was still beaten a long way (15 lengths). It isn’t form to set the world alight, by any means, but I’m convinced fibresand just wasn’t for him, rather than he being horrifically limited in ability. Pitched into Handicap Company however, on a more conventional surface, off a basement mark, for a horse so well bred is to me implying that he’s bound to improve with the switch to this sphere. The application of the blinkers for his handicap debut is a big positive too, especially as Luctor Emergo’s half-sister 4/8 victories came with the blinkers applied (including on her first start with them applied). It may just be that the blinkers have been applied as its “last-chance saloon” for the horse, as if he runs poorly off this rating, then opportunities are going to be few and far between. However, I don’t really see why such an outfit such as Keith Dalgleish would have persisted with this horse if he was useless, and now running on polytrack he does have big scope for improvement. The Dalgleish stable is in good form as of late with the vast majority of their horses running really well. It could look ridiculous by post-time when it’s 100/1 on Betfair but I do think that my views on this animal aren’t complete hokum, and at a double figure price is one worth chancing at. I’m actually fairly confident that we’re due for a good performance from this handicap debutante, and am staking accordingly. 16:50 Wolverhampton – Luctor Emergo; 1pt @ 14/1 Ladbrokes (bog)

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February My first BBOTD post. Still pretty new to horse racing so my reasoning probably won't be great but hopefully I will improve that over time. 14:40 Clonmel: My Murphy, 5/1 Paddy Power, 1pt Win My selection won a grade 3 novices hurdle last time out. It won in heavy going which is what it'll get today. Same jockey on board as that win. Folsom Blue looks to be the main danger but I think MM is better value. If in the same form as lto he should, hopefully, go very close.

[fosterbet5]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February SOUTHWELL 14:30 REODEAN @SP siding with this horse becuase hes simply far superior to the rest of the feild . up for doing the hatrick the horse look unstopable in this company . won over his last two trips on the a/w and is on steady for as it is , has ran superbly since joining new yard who are absolutely flying . decent mount on baord that should help . this horse runs with better form , weight , ratings everything is far superior and i will be amazed if he doesnt cruse home , willing to take short price on it

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February S4.00 Suddenly Susan 1pt Win 11/4 Paddy Power The horse has 2 wins from just 5 attempts over c&d and the horses 2nd LTO under todays excellent 5lb claimer, suggest that the handicapper hasn't done enough to stop it winning just yet. That 2nd was over a furlong less and the horse stayed on that day so todays trip should suit and back at its favourite course, the horse looks to have every chance. The horses last win over c&d (off admittedly a 6lb lower mark) was an eased down unchallenged 5 length win in a 14 runner race and todays jockey takes off 5lb so that is in effect off just a 1lb lower mark. If the horse is in the same from today, the 11/4 could look rather generous.

[skylark2009]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 4.40 Wolverhampton - Gabrials King - This for me is a straight race between Gabrials King an d Miss Cato, I rate both as having excellent chances of winning with Gabrials King coming out best. Gabrials King won over course/distance last time out, he won comfortably that day and now has a 7lb rise today to deal with. With conditions to suit he should improve again today. Trainer is running to 7 wins and 5 places from his last 20 runners to a L.S.P. of +24.17pts, also 5 wins and 7 places from 20 runners here at Wolverhampton for a L.S.P of +12.83pts. The primary danger is Miss Cato who is in exellent form having won her two races at Southwell over 1m, she won well last time out surging clear to win by 4l. She looks very capable of improvement today. I've dutched these two for the daily thread, but will go with Gabrials King for BBOTD.

4.40 Wolverhampton: Gabrials King - 1pt win @ 13/8 Boylesport (BOG) - BBOTD

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 3.20 Wolverhampton Great Offers Online At wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk Handicap Cl7 1m1f103y PRICKLES 4/1 bog (William Hill, Bet365 and many more) 9 1/2f could be a bit short for Prickles as her only win came over 14f here at Wolverhampton during last Winter campaign still she has been back on AW after a few efforts over hurdles shaping quite well over 12f here at Wolverhampton 2 weeks ago when she finished 4th of 7 just 1 3/4L behind the winner Hada Men who was completing a hat-trick that day and snatched a decent third yesterday back over hurdles at Newcastle behind Spiekeroog and Bourne. Prickles's jockey Dale Swift had to work a lot but was still well in contention for the win in that race when entering the final straight but the chestnut mare weakened in the last furlong and couldn't challenge the top 3. Today Prickles' mark is back to 46, the same over her sole win, and Derek Shaw has booked Joe Fanning for the ride. Fanning is the leading jockey here at Wolverhampton where he collected 65 wins in the last 5 years (9 in 2012) with an impressive level stake profit of +66.72. This is a very weak race and Prickles never raced in Class7 before. The only danger for me is Ad Vitam who is one of the two C&D winners in this race and has achieved that success off 10lb higher mark. Still the debut with his new trainer has been very poor. Moreover Ad Vitam lately has been racing over shorter trip and was weakening a lot in the final stages both over 1m and 9f in his two best efforts in the last 10 months (1m at Brighton and 9f here both last October) with his former trainer. Among the others there is another C&D winner that is Kirstys Lad who is a C&D specialist but turned 10 now and had just a decent third in five starts after a long break of 21 months. The other dangers are younger horses that didn't achieve so much so far but could have room for improvements and among them Hot Tub is probably one of the most interesting who shaped quite well in his lat effort when 4th at Kempton last month. Still he will need to improve a lot today and is unproven over this distance. Not an amazing race for sure but the drop in class, the decent recent form and the eye-catching booking of Joe Fanning give a solid chance to Prickles.

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 13:30 Southwell Shawktango - Won this race last year all 4 career wins at CD is rated 63 for today having won off 64. Too slow getting into race LTO and wide on bends hopefully back on the straight and wide draw today will do better 1pt win 7/1 ladbrokes

[bartrum]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 4.0 Southwell Gracies gift gets in here off the same mark as his run a couple of days ago and 10lbs lower than winning here a couple of seasons ago. Typical class 6 at southwell where i have no doubt anything could win. However im happy to take gg after his last run and she is due a win. I think she can turn the tables on ridgeway hawk on better terms. Gracies Gift 1pt win 9/2 @ laddies

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 1.30 Southwell Ladydolly has run some good races in defeat when placed over CD. La Capriosa and Shawkantango have obvious claims but that is reflected in the market. Ladydolly could strip fitter for her last run and looks overpriced, with Philip Makin booked to ride for the Roy Brotherton yard. 16/1

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 2:30 Southwell - Rodean - Back I'm surprised he's not shorter than this to be honest. He's comfortably the form horse of the race having won his last 2. He's easily the highest rated of these and the opposition looks relatively weak. I'd be disappointed if he doesn't complete the hat trick here as although he's never raced here before, I think he'll take to it well 1pt win @ 4/6 Bet365 BOG

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February

3.30 Southwell Just the 5 runners slightly disappointing but good opportunity for Dashing Eddie to regain the winning thread. D'urberville was 5.25 lengths behind Dashing Eddie last time out, 7lb turn around in the weights should bring them closer and he should also strip fitter with that run being his first run for over a year obvious bounce factor a worry and yard struggling for winners would like to see a lot more from them. Arkaim is consistent but doesnt win very often, up another 2lb for latest second and now 9lb above last and only winning mark. Pipers Piping not the most reliable and often doesnt find as much under pressure as seems likely, but was a good 2nd over this CD on penultimate start runs off the same mark but well below best in a claimer at Wolves last time out and now needs to bounce back and unlikely to get a strong pace needed in just a 5 runner field. Dashing Eddie has been a revelation switched to this surface last month winning 2 handicaps over CD 7lb higher for last win which looks a little harsh on the face of it but he did score fairly comfortably despite the minimal margin, disappointing 24hrs later at Wolves but easily excused that given it probably came too soon, Makin back on board today and ought to be hard to beat if continueing upward curve on this surface. 1pt win Dashing Eddie 15/8 bet365

[daftpegasus]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 13:50 Wolverhampton Dancing Welcome win 11/4 VCBet This looks to be a competative race with apprentice jockeys so I'm backing Dancing Welcome to make it three on the bounce over the same course and distance. The horse is on form, running off a decent mark, jockey has a good record on all weather and at Wolverhampton as does the trainer.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 230 Southwell: Roedean (8/13 Hills, BetVic) Putting this up based purely on my ratings, he's the one most clear of the opposition of all of todays terrific AW action. The trainer is doing well at the moment and despite him not proven on the track he's clear enough on the book to be able to run below par and still scrape home.

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 3.30 - Southwell - D'Uberville 1pt win @ 100/30 - Skybet D'Urbervillie won twice over C&D around a year ago. After a 391 day break he made a decent return when coming 3rd, with one of todays opponents, Dashing Eddie winning. My selection re-opposes him today on 7lb better terms and should hopefully come off the better. Still only 2lb higher than his latest winning mark.

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 2.40 Clonmel - Knockgraffon King - 1pt Win 10/3 VC Possibly the worst type of race to pick a winner from as you can make a strong claim for 4 or 5 of the runners. Folsom Blue is a worthy favourite, having won with head in chest lto and Gigginstown target this race with some of their better types. Form looks solid with Star Neuville a long way back in 2nd. My Murphy has done nothing wrong and Rourke's Cross at 14/1 represents a very big price having started at a shorter price in a very competitive handicap lto. Drop back in trip may see Rourke's Cross in the mix. But Knockgraffon King is the selection. He beat a decent yardstick in Are Ya Right Chief lto. He looked very green to me that day but he still made a very good impression. He's well regarded by Noel Meade and is sure to have come on for that run. Meade has expressed confirms about the track suiting in the RP but I still think he's an improving sort and one I want to follow.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 2.20 Wolverhampton - 1pt win Dancing Maite @ 6/1 (Bet365) This horse is 2-4 over c&d and was also beaten by a short-head on one of his failures so he clearly enjoys the conditions here. He was running well on turf in the summer and put in a good effort at Southwell in a decent handicap in December. That form reads well behind Even Stevens, when only beaten 3l by that track specialist, and the 5f trip may be too quick for this horse nowadays. He looks to have a fair chance at the weights here, and the blinkers are applied. The trainer shows level stakes profit here and Dane O'Neill shows level stakes profit for Bowring. Trappy little claimer but I think the top one here is potentially the class angle in it.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February Sou 4.30 - Archnaphobia - ew at 28/1 Stan James Going for a bit of a flutter today - 5 runner race, 2 places, 40% chance of placing at 1/4 odds. I keep saying that 5 runner handicaps provide the best EW betting opportunity so I'm having a crack at one today ! Arachnaphobia hasn't done anything for a while and has only run 3 times since October 2010 His handicap mark has plummeted - runs off 65 today with a 7lb claimer taking another 7 off, so effectively 58 His last win was off 81 and his last run in a handicap was off 77 (9 months ago) Has only run at Southwell once and finished 2nd so the track is OK, this 7F is his trip, he has a first time visor and the yard is on 100% on the RP RTF figures I think sometimes with these horses that haven't run much for a year or two and are in decline that catching them after a break is the best time............before they remember why they've gone off racing.

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 2.50 Port Hill @ Wolverhampton - Course and distance winner that hasn't been seen since March last year but is coming back down the weights.Jockey Shane Kelly has been onboard for a lot of the horses races and is back onboard today.Kelly is in great form and got February of to a great start with 2 wins from 2 rides yesterday. 0.5pt E/W @ 28/1 Bet Fred

[kroni]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 3:30 Southwell Pipers Piping @ 5/1 Bet365 Running well recently including here 2 starts back when 2nd to Fluctuation who won again next time out, shows a good speed figure for that run compared to some of his rivals today and has a good chance if running to that form here.

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February 3.50 wolves Guest Book e/w sp only won once when with johnstone and since leaving has had 4 runs with scudamore over distances that seem too far . Optimum seems 8f and this extended mile looks good for today , once rated 88 and has now dropped to 77 and rogers with a further 5lbs claim so looks well handicapped. Had a few places over higher marks and hasnt really had a chance on aw so i expect it to improve

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 2nd of February

3:30 Southwell Pipers Piping @ 5/1 Bet365 Running well recently including here 2 starts back when 2nd to Fluctuation who won again next time out, shows a good speed figure for that run compared to some of his rivals today and has a good chance if running to that form here.

Good call. Well done. :ok D'urberville really disappointing, unfortunately, for me at least.