BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec

[BKI Punter]

1:30 Taunton Tiger O'Toole 0.5pt EW - 14/1 (Bet365) Small bet because he has a lot to prove over fences, but this isn't a massively strong race and he's well in on what he achieved over hurdles last year and the trainer does well at Taunton. Might need a slightly longer trip these days, but the ground should be testing enough and if he jumps well, he should finish strongly.

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec Sugar Beet - 3.15 Kem (1pt win 10-1 WH BOG) Won a couple of races as a 2YO for Roger Charlton at the back-end of 2010 before moving to Ron Harris, where she has notched up three more victories this year and progressed to a mark of 83. I think the 6f at Kempton last time was a bit too far for her, and that she will be suited by the switch back to 5f. (She has won over 6f, but that was the very sharp 6f at Lingfield.) If she repeats the form of her penultimate start at Lingfield, then she will be hard to stop. Anyhow, she seems well worth a punt at double-figure odds.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec 1330 taunton doeslessthanme 1pt win 9/4 bet365 finished 2nd last time out, with lots of mistakes throughout the race, hopefully its getting the hang of the bigger obstacles and im prepared to give it one more chance, blinkers back on so heres hoping

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec Red Tanber - Musselburgh 2:55 Hacked up lto at this track, had plenty in the tank and a reproduction should see it win. Lucy Alexander is a top jock also and would put it up to any of the men out there, she is great value for her 7 pound claim. Won by 12 lengths lto and 5/1 looks an e/w steal. 0.5 e/w @ 5/1 Boylesports BOG

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec 2.45 Kempton Heatherbird 5/1 Bet365 This horse was back to form with a bang last time out, travelling really well and going on to win a maiden very comfortably. That was at Lingfield however, and this will be her first run at Kempton which is a totally different track. She has shown decent form in handicap company and may be worth following now she has got her head in front. A repeat of her run at Sandown a couple of outings ago would give her very strong claims of taking this race. I think her run last time out proved she is in form and she should take all the beating here.

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec M2.55 Clouseau 0.5pt E/W 25/1 William Hill The horse has had 2 poor races since joining this stable but the trainer has given the horse a little break and he is in much better form now so I'm hopeful it can return to something like the form it was in for its previous stable. That included a win off a 6lb higher mark (albeit in a 3 runner race) and the excellent Henry Brooke takes off a further 3lb. The horse has run its best races on flat right handed tracks so conditions should suit for this race and probably wouldn't mind any further rain either.

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec 5:15 Kempton - Novel Dancer At the wrong end of the market, this looks a fantastic bet imo. 3yo race over 11f, where Novel Dancer's sire, Dansili, is the standout stallion having had his progeny run nine times over the distance on AW over the past 365 days, winning two and securing a further place. The other runners' stallions have distance duck eggs against their names and have not even managed a place. Jockey, Steve Drowne, recently had a 100/1 winner for the trainer and has also a further 28/1 winner for her too. Two wins in ten for Lydia Richards this year. The sire also has the highest win percentage for age & track :ok 8/1 bet365 - win

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec 14:20 Musselburgh Allow Me E/W (8,00) WilliamHill Allow Me won his first race a month ago, at this course but over a longer distance. He previous done well at 16f, whit several place runs. Allow Me are up 6lb for his recent win but whit a decent run and 3 1/2l to the nearest horse last time at Musselburgh, he could overcome the mark and beeing top weight. Allow Me recent form. 2-3-2-2-1 The jockey Lucy Alexander gets her first run, whit this horse. She too have showen decent form lately, winning 15 % of her runs whitin the last 14 days.

[RussP]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec 2.45 Kempton 13 runners for this 10f handicap and I like the chances of the top weight, Hurricane Spirit. Triple course winner who is 5 from 6 at this time of year, has a great win record on the sand (6/21), 2 from 8 for the jockey and 3 from 6 in this grade. Races off 75 today having been rated 102 at his best. Now a 7yo, I think the key could be the step up in distance to 1m2f. First try at that distance yielded a 3rd of 12 at 20/1 off 3lb lower, despite not getting the clearest of runs. Followed that up with a win over this C&D, beating a couple of todays rivals but finished well that day and I think it's ability to get his nose in front, coupled with track form and a great draw should help our charge to confirm the form. I'm prepared to ignore lto run off 78 where the slow pace benefited those at the front and, despite a 9th place finish, ran much better than the position suggests. That has inflated the price by a few points and I'm happy to get on at double figure odds. Hurricance Spirit, Win @ 10/1 Bet365 BOG

[Sam Preen]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec Estonia - 3:45 Kempton. Conditions to suit, can put latest blip behind her when finishing 7th of 11 at Wolverhampton earlier this month. Last two wins have come over course and distance and it's possible that the return to this track will be in her favour. Win @ 8/1 William Hill

[Dtrains]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec 2.10 kemp RUSSIAN BULLET - the fav here looks very solid and wouldn't want to oppose him, has come back from a break in really good form on the artificial surfaces, won at wolves then travelled all over the field at southwell before not finding alot that maybe down to the surface, has the best form in field and fully expect this one to win, unless there is marked improvement from one of the handicap debutants but they are priced up very short having not shown a great deal in maidens. 1pt win russian bullet 2/1 bet365

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec 3.45 Kempton Rylee Mooch - had a recent pipeopener at Southwell when he was slowly into stride and gave his jockey too much ground to make up. Should come on for that run and has generally run well on polytrack so this surface switch is not expected to be a problem. 16/1 VC Bet, 1 pt win

[mowgli77]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec Saddlers Deal - Musselburgh 2.55pm - EW - 13-2 William Hill - BOG Only the 2nd time it has run off this mark of 110, was held up last time out and made some errors before being outpaced. Was a 5 length winner off a 105 rating and not writing it off yet. Not the most consistent but I like Dennis O'Regan and think he might get a performance from the horse, he won on it in November and Jason Maguire took over last time out. Red Tanber is an obvious danger but drops back from 20f and Baaher seemed suited to further last time out.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec 1.50 Muss Benmadigan is absolutely thrown in here and if running anywhere near his best should go very well here. Stable really firing at present and if forgiven a couple of poor recent runs this horse is seriously well handicapped at almost a stone below his last winning mark. Young claimer on board but still has a major chance providing the heavens don't open. 1 pt win 10/1 Bet365

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec 3:15 Kempton - Sugar Beet - 1pt @ 6/1 (WillHill) There seems to be an ocean of pace in this contest and that's ideal for Sugar Beet, who's not one bit short of speed herself and is always going to be helped when they go off too fast at the head of affairs - something which seems very likely in today's contest. The front-runners went off relatively quick at this track when she lined up off a career-high mark last time out but that came over a furlong further than she faces today and with the speed that Ron Harris' 3-year-old filly usually shows, I wouldn't be convinced that 6f is her trip, nor would a good 6f pace suffice for her even if she stays the distance (which she does, but a rapidly run 5f is her optimum). In the end, Sugar Beet was only beaten by less than a couple of lengths despite taking quite a keen hold in the early stages of the contest and that wasn't ideal at all. Regardless, that run gives plenty of cause for optimism with regards to her current rating of 83 not being beyond her and she was actually running off 84 last time out, so the handicapper is being a bit generous by dropping her a pound for running a perfectly good race. Whether she can take advantage is another thing but there seems to be no obvious reason as to why she can't and the step back to 5f has to be seen as a massive positive for this in-form animal. Previous to that, on her penultimate outing, Sugar Beet ran out a neck winner over the flying 5-furlongs at Lingfield, beating a decent field in the process (second placed horse was very well-handicapped). They also went off very hard in front that day and set the race up perfectly for her. Similar goings on are likely to be in order here and I feel that Kempton is a more suitable track for this filly, so she shouldn't have any problem in defying a mark of 83 over this C&D before too long. Hopefully that'll be today and with the Harris yard in good order, Luke Morris riding exceptionally well and the horse being in the form of her life, 6/1 looks like an attractive price. She was actually as big as 10/1 earlier on, which was madness but I didn't get to the race in time. Medium win stakes will do the job and she should run a good race at the very least.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec Musselburgh 2.20 Royal Opera win - 4/1 Bet365 Lads 3yo and gets weight from the field. Bolted up lto albeit in a weak race, but handicap debut and could improve. Used to be pretty decent on the flat and trainer does pretty well with these types. Nicky Richards has an interesting runner, but my selection gets a bit of weight from him and should be competitive off his current mark.

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec 1 point win elegant touch 11/4 bet365 12.30 tauton i think i can take on the odds on fav swincombe flame with 11/4 shot elegant touch who hasnt been tried over this 2 mile 3 distance but its last run on the 22nd november were it was drawing clear at the end over 2 miles makes me think it should relish the trip,sporting have these 2 favs priced at 11/8(for the fav) and 7/4(for elegant touch) in the market.so the actual best odds available of 8/15(for the fav) and 11/4 for elegant touch could reprisent a bit of value for elegant touch

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec

2.45 Kempton 13 runners for this 10f handicap and I like the chances of the top weight, Hurricane Spirit. Triple course winner who is 5 from 6 at this time of year, has a great win record on the sand (6/21), 2 from 8 for the jockey and 3 from 6 in this grade. Races off 75 today having been rated 102 at his best. Now a 7yo, I think the key could be the step up in distance to 1m2f. First try at that distance yielded a 3rd of 12 at 20/1 off 3lb lower, despite not getting the clearest of runs. Followed that up with a win over this C&D, beating a couple of todays rivals but finished well that day and I think it's ability to get his nose in front, coupled with track form and a great draw should help our charge to confirm the form. I'm prepared to ignore lto run off 78 where the slow pace benefited those at the front and, despite a 9th place finish, ran much better than the position suggests. That has inflated the price by a few points and I'm happy to get on at double figure odds. Hurricance Spirit, Win @ 10/1 Bet365 BOG

Saddlers Deal - Musselburgh 2.55pm - EW - 13-2 William Hill - BOG Only the 2nd time it has run off this mark of 110, was held up last time out and made some errors before being outpaced. Was a 5 length winner off a 105 rating and not writing it off yet. Not the most consistent but I like Dennis O'Regan and think he might get a performance from the horse, he won on it in November and Jason Maguire took over last time out. Red Tanber is an obvious danger but drops back from 20f and Baaher seemed suited to further last time out.

Flippin Hell we are honoured today:eek:p

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec 120 Musselburgh: Vosges 1pt 5/4 Bet365 Backed this one last time when let the leader go off too easily and just failed to peg him back. Jumps well and likes this track and gets the age allowance. The last twice he has ran in handicaps but is well in on these terms in this Beginners Chase. Maggio is decent on his day bit I confidently expect Vosges to take care of him over the last couple of fences.

[LJD]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec Volcanic Dust - 3.45 Wolverhampton This horse has been in very good form on turf recently, winning two races over this trip from 4 races. But on this surface, turf form usually goes out of the window. But this horse has a good 2nd here to it's name. It does have a bit of a break to overcome and this race may be needed to blow out the cobwebs but I think it is capable going well and at least picking up a place. Volcanic dust E/W @ 25/1 Bet 365 BOG

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec Wolves 3.45: Volcanic Dust 1pt win @ 20/1 PP BOG Lightly raced 3yo who returns from an Autumn break from, what may prove, quite an attractive handicap mark. Won very cosily on penultimate start over this trip in a 3 runner race at Sandown from only 4lbs lower before running out of steam from revised mark over 6f at Newbury when last seen. Stable in decent heart and has every chance today returned to the minimum trip from an ideal draw for a horse that likes to race prominently. There's been a little nibble at it in the market so the current odds of 20/1 may prove decent value.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec Sole runner for Trainer Mr Andrew Parker in the last race of the day at Musselburgh. Its another NH flat race over the 2m and this 4yr old could be anything, however Mr Parker would love to have a winner today at this track and he also part owns this horse. Jockey R.McGrath has 3 nice looking rides today and he gets the leg up on Mr Parker's runner in Race 7' on the card. Ground - Trip - and course are all unknown but i will take a wee chance bet. Musselburgh 3:25 - Captain Woodhouse. 0.5 e/w bet 50/1 Bet365 ''BOG'' Be Lucky.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec 2.55 Musselburgh - 1pt win Baaher @ 10/1 (VC) Jim Goldie's charge may have been a slightly fortunate winner over 4f further at this track last time out, but he was staying on for pressure behind Spice Bar when that one came to grief, and I believe he would have got closer come the line. He also made a jolting mistake earlier in the race, and that took some sting out of him. He is 4lbs higher today, but his chase form is good. He's only just starting to click over these obstacles, but his 3 most recent runs have been strong efforts. You can forgive him his sound effort 3 starts ago after nearly coming down at the first (detached for much of the race). Wasn't beaten all that far. Chased home a subsequent winner in a higher grade two starts ago, and did win last time. 10/1 looks too big so long as he doesn't put in any crucial errors.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec Kemp 3.45 - Volcanic dust - ew at 25/1 Laddies This is the one I picked out last night but it's drifted alarmingly in the betting - I'm sure it was 14/1 last night but 25/1 now It had good form on the turf over the summer and comes here fresh from a break. The yard have had winners in the last few days so hopefully the string is fit Has run here a couple of times and one of those was pretty good form, narrowly beaten by Chevise in a claimer when Chevise was on a real roll Has a low draw ans has been dropped a couple of pounds since it's last run and Liam Keniry takes the ride

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec 2:30 Taunton - Green to Gold - Back The most consistent of these by a long stretch. His best form has come on a sounder surface than he gets today. It would be preferrable if the ground was sounder but at 10/1 this more than accounts for this and I think he's overpriced 1pt win @ sp

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec MORENITO 2.30 Taunton. 1 point win. Needs to be at his best, but I think he will as conditions of the race appear suitable. Can run own race and should be fighting out the finish.

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec 2:20 Toledo Gold @ Musselburgh - reason to follow

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec Posh Emily 3.05 Taunton. 1 point win. Likes it here and is pretty consistent. There should be plenty of pace to the race making it a test and thats what she wants. No excuses for not being involved where it matters. 13/2 Bet365 (bog)

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec Not been running well for some time now but is now at its lowest mark since October lat year.Jockey Michael McAlister is in good form in handicap hurdles this season with a 15% strike rate and a profit of +16.33.Trainer Maurice Barnes is 1 from 6 races so far this month.Can get involved at a good price off this mark 0.5 pt e/w @ 33/1 @ VCBet

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD - Tues 20th Dec 3.45 Kemtpon - What About You - 4/1 Boylesports Massive price on this one imo, a lot of the competition are class 5 sorts and dont look handicapped to win. This ones a lightly raced Fahey runner who's shown a strong level of form, a decent third in a class 2 handicap lto. Dropped to 5f which looks in need, doesnt seem to get 6fs. Diamond Charlie the danger.