Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

[BKI Punter]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Yes, but you've still avoided the question, what has he actually beaten? On what SS has achieved, he deserves to be the price he is, possibly even shorter. Peddlers has won 2/3 but against absolutely nothing. Even Al Ferof on form should be shorter in the betting.

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 But if Peddlers Cross translates his hurdles form to fences, then he has a huge chance? Sprinter Sacre beat nothing last time out too and has stamina doubts up the hill. There are pro's and con's for both animals i think..

[bowles10]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

I think its priced correctly. PC is not to be taken lightly. SC @ 5/4 is ridiculous, should be 5/2 at least.

this is where the bookies over exaggarate a performance in my opinion. OK you can argue prices are based on weight of money etc but 5/4 is madness. Take Gand Crus for the RSA for example, why isnt that 5/4 as it could be?? Poss because its still in the Gold cup so bookies need to keep price enhanced until pipe decides. I can see Grand crus going off shorter than SS if its runs. No horse should be shorter than evens at Cheltenham other than Big Bucks and Quevega who have made those races thier own. If Long run was unbeaten this season, it would be odds on, so it loses 1st time up against Kauto described by Nicholls as the best ive ever had him and at Kempton again Kauto outjumps LR albeit it was 1.25l victory, i maintain that lR would have caught it in a matter of strides past the post. LR therefore in my eyes is a decent price around 5/2 In fact i am liking that as a double LR and Grand Crus?

[Elchubb]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

The only worry for Peddlers are the fences. Will stay the trip, will love the Cheltenham hill and is 2/3 in his chase career. Has won 9/12 starts. SC got well beat by Al Ferof at Cheltenham, and is an unknown as to whether it will stay up the hill? That was over hurdles all the same. I think its priced correctly. PC is not to be taken lightly. SC @ 5/4 is ridiculous, should be 5/2 at least.

If someone would lay me 5/2 on SS i think i'd re mortgage the house!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Personally think SS will have too much pace for PC and will be clear enough at the last for any stamina questions to prove irrelevant. Just my opinion of course.

[bowles10]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

If someone would lay me 5/2 on SS i think i'd re mortgage the house!

you will get bigger when the winner storms past it up the hill haha

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

this is where the bookies over exaggarate a performance in my opinion. OK you can argue prices are based on weight of money etc but 5/4 is madness. Take Gand Crus for the RSA for example, why isnt that 5/4 as it could be?? Poss because its still in the Gold cup so bookies need to keep price enhanced until pipe decides. I can see Grand crus going off shorter than SS if its runs. No horse should be shorter than evens at Cheltenham other than Big Bucks and Quevega who have made those races thier own. If Long run was unbeaten this season, it would be odds on, so it loses 1st time up against Kauto described by Nicholls as the best ive ever had him and at Kempton again Kauto outjumps LR albeit it was 1.25l victory, i maintain that lR would have caught it in a matter of strides past the post. LR therefore in my eyes is a decent price around 5/2 In fact i am liking that as a double LR and Grand Crus?

If Sprinter Sacre was proven at Cheltenham, if we knew it stays up the hill no problem, in the form it is in, 5/4, fair enough. As we all know, this is a specialist track, and no matter how impressive a horse can be at Newbury or Haydock or Ascot or wherever, they can go to Cheltenham and run like 50/1 rags. I remember a horse that travelled over for the Fred Winter a few years ago was all the rage at home, Alexander Severus, was owned by a guy i know, Paddy Wilmott. They were 100% sure this horse was going to bolt up. It went off 5/2 fav. It had won on debut in France, and was brought over and won on in Ireland in a decent maiden. Then it ran in a very competitive handicap at Leopardstown and went down by a head to See You Bob. Anyways to cut a long story short, the horse pinged the last looking like a winner, it hit the hill and just stopped as if it hit a brick wall, and finished 4th. I was never so gutted as i had a big bet on it. So Sprinter Sacre 5/4 to win the Arkle with proven track performers like Peddlers Cross, Al Ferof, Cue Card and Menorah in the field, no thanks.. I will happily lay it

[Elchubb]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

you will get bigger when the winner storms past it up the hill haha

:rollinWe'll see!!! This is definitely why this is shaping up as the best race of the festival, so many different opinions and i can't wait to see who's right! Think it was on ATR that if the top 3 in the market all line up it will be the first time that a novice race will have 3 horses all rated above 160!

[TheRat]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I don't buy all this hill chat though. People are going over the top with it imo. Re watch the Supreme, he was pulling the whole way round and did well to finish 3rd. McCoy (and that is the only time he has ridden SS) should probably have let him run. Anyway Geraghty and Henderson both say he was quite small and weak and has gotten much bigger and stronger now. Forget what he beat for a second, he broke the track record at Newbury on the bridle and the ground was not that quick. Now I agree he is too short to back ante post now, but you are clutching at straws trying pick holes in his chasing so far

[BKI Punter]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 How can you call French Opera and I'm so Lucky nothing? :loon Both are solid benchmarks imo. Especially given FO goes well fresh. In contrast to Peddlers, who has beaten The Chazer who couldn't defy a mark of 121 lto (I know he won easily, but still), and Minella Class, who, although a strong traveller, doesn't find a great deal. Given the two benchmarks, I don't think there's any question about it. The way Peddlers ran after the CH at Aintree was very worrying, and just makes you wonder about how much he gave in the CH. That's why it's dangerous to stay over hurdles with horses that have a future over fences. You have to believe there was something drastically wrong with him at Kempton. I think he'll be taken off his feet in the Arkle and blunder his way round. I love the horse btw, backed him in the Neptune a couple of weeks before the race. Was my best winner at my first festival. :D

[bowles10]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 for me there are far more betting opportunities at the festival than SS in the arkle. We all always be against a 5/4 jolly. On day 1 if the fly wins and SS wins, we should get some interesting prices day 2 as the books will be running scared of being knocked over

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 It's all good to talk about the bare form and all, but there few very important points that nobody takes under consideration. Hurdlers that go the champion/wh route never quite become top top class. Time For Rupert, Punchestowns.. there are so many examples. If you want to follow such horses, they should always be lightly raced. Grands Crus wasn't typical novice. The Pipes know what they are doing. Why have hard novice season and then go a full year gearing towards World Hurdle if your horse is a chaser? Run him few times in handicaps, go the World Hurdle route and that's it. Any coincidence they are doing the same with Dynaste and Our Father? Don't think so, they just know what they are doing. Lightly raced horses become top class chasers in most cases. Peddlers Cross? Too many battles and too many scars. The examples are countless. Crack Away Jack? Had Champion Hurdle year and then was pretty similar to PC. Fantastic at Sandown jumping for fun, Arkle favourite and so on. Where is he now? 140-150 horse at best. You would make fortune laying horses like this at 7/2. Why didn't Al Ferof stay over hurdles? It's simple. Nicholls knows he is a chaser. Why waste a good horse? Then comes the most important part, scope and improvement. Sprinter Sacre has so much scope. It's obvious he has improved leaps since the Supreme. If you think he is the same horse as one year ago you're kidding yourself. Scope and improvement are the most important aspect of horse racing. Well at least for me. As soon as PC finished 2nd in CH and the Arkle market opened I was on Al Ferof and Sprinter Sacre. It's the easiest and most straightforward bet I've ever had. Win or lose, I'm on the right horses. And last but not least why isn't anybody mentioning the wind op? If they found a problem and fixed it, that explains all about his Supreme run. Not to mention the ride he was given and how even without a wind op I would expect him to empty if he pulls all the way through. Even Spirit Son appeared not to "get up the hill", but you run the Supreme a month later and Spirit Son would've trashed Al Ferof. If you want to oppose SS in Arkle, I think the only bet you can have is back something else and save your stake on SS while he's odds against. Then at least you have the chance to tell your grandchildren "oh I backed when he won the Arkle" when he has won his 5th Queen Mum on the trot and is recognized as the best ever :D

[fintron]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

You could make profit if you go against virtually everything Davy Russell says. Trust me. Lay anything he fancies and back anything he doesn't fancy and you'de be amazed. Guy's the worst judge ever. Fantastic jockey though :)

Good to hear, as I'm on Minsk for the Triumph, the one he says is lame and will not be winning! Edit: he was against Bostons Angel the other year wasnt he?

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Good to hear, as I'm on Minsk for the Triumph, the one he says is lame and will not be winning! Edit: he was against Bostons Angel the other year wasnt he?

Yea, very lame. Antepost Irish gamble without even running over hurdles yet. Running at Fairy this weekend.

[fintron]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 The story of Minsk is fascinating. Look a real tool when landing the competitive Irish Cesarewitch handicap for John Oxx on the flat last year after being bought by Barry Connell. It was confusing me, why he hasn't raced for so long and not had a prep run, which probably would open up the possibility for him being lame at some point? so maybe there is some truth? As you say though, he's been a big gamble, he's been rock solid on Betfair for weeks, without even jumping a hurdle. There was an interview with Connell in the RP last week, he feels this horse is a Group horse on the Flat and mentioned a possible tilt at the Melbourne Cup next year. Dessie Hughes, in his weekender column, said Minsk had the potential to be one of the best he's trained and said he'd taken well to hurdles. The value has long gone now but I was surprised to hear Russell dismiss Minsks's chances with such conviction (unless he was misquoted). I could understand him saying he's poor value, but Shark Hanlon has said he's the Irish banker of the Festival and included him as his charity bet trebel, so whose view do you believe? :lol

[BKI Punter]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Russell told everyone he couldn't have Master Minded whatsoever in 2010 after his easy Game Spirit win...just sayin' :D

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

The story of Minsk is fascinating. Look a real tool when landing the competitive Irish Cesarewitch handicap for John Oxx on the flat last year after being bought by Barry Connell. It was confusing me, why he hasn't raced for so long and not had a prep run, which probably would open up the possibility for him being lame at some point? so maybe there is some truth? As you say though, he's been a big gamble, he's been rock solid on Betfair for weeks, without even jumping a hurdle. There was an interview with Connell in the RP last week, he feels this horse is a Group horse on the Flat and mentioned a possible tilt at the Melbourne Cup next year. Dessie Hughes, in his weekender column, said Minsk had the potential to be one of the best he's trained and said he'd taken well to hurdles. The value has long gone now but I was surprised to hear Russell dismiss Minsks's chances with such conviction (unless he was misquoted). I could understand him saying he's poor value, but Shark Hanlon has said he's the Irish banker of the Festival and included him as his charity bet trebel, so whose view do you believe? :lol

That's all very good, but Rite Of Passage is group 1 on flat, but didn't win over hurdles. Minsk reminds me a bit of that According, who was similar hype few years ago. On flat ability he is good tho, to win off 95 so well. We'll see what he does this weekend. If he beats Darroun, who beat that Weld horse lto, he is the obvious one for the Triumph.

[mowgli77]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I mentioned the wind op for SS in the Arkle thread as I didn't think it had previously been mentioned. I backed Sizing Europe in the Champion Hurdle, the Arkle and the Champion Chase because it has class in abundance and takes 2 lengths out of the field at some of the fences with its jumping style. For me it looked to go wrong in the hurdle rather than not get up the hill and I was more than willing to give it a chance again when returning to the festival. It was 14-1 last year ante post for the QM, how was it ever allowed to be that price? Racing needs these top class horses and for the sport I hope Sprinter Sacre is the real deal.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Probably because of it's race in the Tied Cottage behind Big Zeb and Golden Silver, and the race after the Arkle behind Golden Silver. Just generally had a messed up preperation.

[benreado]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 There's an interesting form line through I'm so Lucky which suggests Al Ferof and Spinter Sacre are fairly closely matched based on what we've seen so far. AL Ferof finished 14 lengths ahead of I'm so Lucky in the Victor Chandler off level weights and Spinter Sacre was 9 lengths in front of I'm So Lucky carrying and extra 5 lbs (=14 lengths). The Pipe horse is a very consistent sort so I'd imagine that form is a solid benchmark. Of course then you need to consider that SS was still on the bridle and ask yourself how much more he'd have found if asked. That's debatable but I personally believe that SS is a horse that won't find a great deal when asked (although the breathing op may have solved that). So based on what we've seen so far SS is probably a few pounds ahead. However, I think 2 miles at Cheltenham will certainly play to the strengths of Al Ferof more than SS and Al Ferof always seems to run his best races in March at Cheltenham, so it could go either way on the day (imo). From a betting perspective I always try to take on the hype horses at Cheltenham (especially novices!!!) so if there's 11/2 available about Al Ferof on the day I'll certainly be getting stuck in.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Sounds as if recent events are making the Pipes think about Gold Cup with Grands Crus again. Long Run being closely run by Burton Port and PN's stable not in top shape possibly contributing to that.

Pipe played his best poker face when he was questioned more deeply at a media open morning on Tuesday and maintains he will continue to monitor the situation.He said: "We will decide nearer the time. We have to see what's in the races and look at ground conditions and everything else. Horses miss Cheltenham for various reasons - not that we want that to happen - and that will make an impact on which race he runs in." I'm just keeping an open mind and we'll all sit down and have a chat. I'm sure a decision won't be made until seven to 10 days before the race. It's not that we're not telling people, we're keeping our options open. If anyone wants to back him, they should back him 'with a run' for either race. "Grands Crus shook up the mighty Big Buck's in the last Ladbrokes World Hurdle and his progress has continued unabated over fences, with three consecutive wins at Cheltenham, Newbury and in the Feltham Novices' Chase at Kempton. Pipe says any decision will not be affected by the death of Gloria Victis, an immensely promising novice of his father Martin's who died when pitched straight into the 2000 Gold Cup. He went on:"I remember Gloria Victis, and it was a sad day as he was a very talented horse. But you have to treat every horse as an individual and make a decision on that."Is Grands Crus going to be fit and well next year? Is he going to be sound? There are pros and cons and we'll decide nearer the time. "We have to decide if he's ready for it and look at the opposition. Those are two things. Can he travel at the pace of the Gold Cup? I would say yes. Can he jump at the pace of the Gold Cup? I'd say that's the only issue. He has jumped well and was impressive at Kempton. That's what we're looking into."

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Posted this about Dare Me today. Goes in 10 mins, but will have a bit e/w on him for the County.

3.40 Taunton - 4pts win Dare Me @ 3/1 (

Hills) The fact this horse has been backed gives me hope that he'll be going for the win today, as it's always tricky judging high-class handicappers just weeks before Cheltenham. I think he's well-treated and will be a big threat in the County Hurdle if he runs, even off a higher mark than today. Was high class in bumpers, but improved again over hurdles in late 2010, with two very easy victories. He first off beat a current 123-rated horse by 12l and then won unextended by over 4l to a horse now rated 130. Looking at this literally,

Dare Me goes to war off a mark of 135, and should be well capable of exploiting this. Returned after a long break at Cheltenham recently and was one of the biggest eyecatchers of the season for me. Didn't jump all that great in rear, but kept making ground after his flights, and looked a threat up the straight in a competitive affair. A final error at the last cost him any chance he had, and he faded up the hill. It was hugely promising, and with that run under his belt, should go extremely well here if not 'bouncing'.

​Ante-Post: 1pt e/w Dare Me @ 20/1 (Stan James) - County Hurdle

[ONEDUNME]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Posted this about Dare Me today. Goes in 10 mins, but will have a bit e/w on him for the County. ​Ante-Post: 1pt e/w Dare Me @ 20/1 (Stan James) - County Hurdle

Didn't see the race but beaten by 7lengths. Does that mean it won't go for the County? I see most bookies offering odds aren't quoting a price for him (Stan James are quoting 25/1). That's the danger of antepost betting before the non runner money back. You might get a few bigger prices but A/ They've got to go on to win and B/ You've got to have enough to outweigh the ones that don't turn up in the race you back them in. I must say I'm enjoying the differing viewpoints being debated though. Apart from the horses, we have people saying that the hill is an overated factor and another quoting an instance where the hill stopped a horse in its tracks:D It's all about opinions as they say.

[bowles10]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 the hill does make a difference, ive seen horses stop many times on that run in, although i do prefer horses in the front rank at Cheltenham, you can come off a strong pace from midfield and stage a late storming run just like quantativeassing did

[TheRat]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I like Dare Me for County. He is on a nice mark for the race. No reason if this was the target that they would want to win with him today Still going to wait before I back him

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Not put off by Dare Me's run at all. Still think he's well handicapped. Only his second run back after a long break and should be spot on for Cheltenham now. Hobbs' horses aren't going great either so if he's in form in a few weeks time, and this lad goes to the County, he has a big chance in my eyes. No idea if they are going there but I don't see why they wouldn't.

[cpo]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I was looking the other day to see where Citizenship was entered at the festival and it looks as though he is going for the County. I will probably be backing this horse in the race but will wait until much closer to the time. He ran an absolute cracker to win the Boylesports Hurdle and is still lightly raced over hurdles. Seems to be getting better with every run and he will relish the big field at Cheltenham and will hopefully storm up the hill.

[ONEDUNME]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

the hill does make a difference' date=' ive seen horses stop many times on that run in, although i do prefer horses in the front rank at Cheltenham, you can come off a strong pace from midfield and stage a late storming run just like quantativeassing did[/quote'] I agree that the hill makes a difference. It's a well quoted "fact" and I think this is the first place I've ever heard the fact questioned but, as I say, it's all about opinions. As for Dare Me, it would be a brave man to back it at this moment in time. The bookies are quick to quote a price about anything to get your money off you before the NRNB kicks in (which will probably be the weekend after this one) and it seems strange to me that of 33 horses listed on oddschecker for this race, there are only two that 365 aren't offering prices for and they are Dare Me and Snap Tie. The only argument you could put forward for not offering a price is that they fear it winning, in which case, in which case they could easily offer a shorter price than the 25/1 available on Stan James. I'd guess that it probably won't run in this race.

[bowles10]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 a number of horses for this will run in the imperial cup at sandown on the saturday before, they still do the bonus for winning both i think

[ONEDUNME]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Forgive me for not reading up through this thread (this may have already been mentioned) but Grandouet is out to 10/1 from as low as 5s now. This from the RP site today... GRANDOUET will undergo investigative surgery in Newbury on Tuesday night for a problem with his near-hind leg that prevented him from running at Wincanton last weekend.