Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

[cpo]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

What the hell has happened with Our Father?! :loon I know it's hard to beat Big Bucks, but god it'll be heart stopping if he canters and joins him on the run in like Grand Crus did :D

:eek niceee

[cpo]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I don't really see Big Bucks getting beat but if he does I can only see Oscar Whisky having the ammunition to beat him

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I only need Our Father to canter like Grands Crus did and trade around evens. GC traded 1.74 last year. I can lay 5k at evens and win 5k regardless of result :D The question is if OF is that good though? They rate him as good as Grands Crus, but only time will tell. I had him as a bit of a cert in the Pertempts, but they are now probably forced to run World Hurdle, cos he has gone 147 already. He will probably win one more handicap before Chelt and be high 150s. Was entered at Warwick, but was taken out. Still not sure what the plan is.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Big weekend for TFR. Hope Grands Crus runs because it will show where Rupert stands now with conditions to suit him. Already know he's probably in the same calibre as Diamond Harry etc but I think he'll beat DH at Cheltenham. I hope Captain Chris runs okay but doesn't stay so Hobbs sends him to the Ryanair - where my ante-post bet is! Interesting race, the Argento...Looking forward to the weekend already.

[cpo]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Yeh I was thinking whatever happens with him now, you can make plenty of money from him getting him at that price. No doubt his price will shorten even more tomorrow if he is indeed the Pricewise pick. I see he is entered up at Huntingdon for a Pertemps Qualifier at the end of the month. What about the Imperial Cup before Cheltenham or would they not do that with him? I know the Pipe's target that race given the large bonus on offer if you can with that and then win at the festival

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Yeh I was thinking whatever happens with him now' date=' you can make plenty of money from him getting him at that price. No doubt his price will shorten even more tomorrow if he is indeed the Pricewise pick. I see he is entered up at Huntingdon for a Pertemps Qualifier at the end of the month. What about the Imperial Cup before Cheltenham or would they not do that with him? I know the Pipe's target that race given the large bonus on offer if you can with that and then win at the festival[/quote'] I guess he'll run at Hunt. If he hacks and goes 160-ish he isn't going Pertempts, that's certain. If he is 2nd 3rd, he will run Pertempts. If he only wins by a small margin and goes 150+ then it could be anything.

[cpo]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Big weekend for TFR. Hope Grands Crus runs because it will show where Rupert stands now with conditions to suit him. Already know he's probably in the same calibre as Diamond Harry etc but I think he'll beat DH at Cheltenham. I hope Captain Chris runs okay but doesn't stay so Hobbs sends him to the Ryanair - where my ante-post bet is! Interesting race, the Argento...Looking forward to the weekend already.

I don't see anything getting near Grands Crus but I reckon Tidal Bay could run well. He didn't seem to be giving maximum effort last time out over hurdles and he does have a mind of his own but if he puts it all in, then he is a classy operator. He clearly loves Cheltenham... Depending on how he runs in this will determine whether they go world hurdle or gold cup with him.

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

What the hell has happened with Our Father?! :loon This was literally a week ago. I know it's hard to beat Big Bucks, but god it'll be heart stopping if he canters and joins him on the run in like Grand Crus did :D

Cracking bet... But would you not take advantage of the market right now? The chances of Our Father hitting evens in running is extremely slim, if you lay Our Father now @ 25/1 for €415, your guaranteed €400 if it loses, and guaranteed about €800 if it wins. Thats the way i would play it, free money

[mowgli77]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

What the hell has happened with Our Father?! :loon This was literally a week ago. I know it's hard to beat Big Bucks, but god it'll be heart stopping if he canters and joins him on the run in like Grand Crus did :D

That would certainly go down as best ever ante post bet on PL if that came in, good luck with it. I'd lay part of it off now as it's 27.0 to back on Betfair but not a huge % of it. See if Pricewise has put it up and then lay it again and then possibly on the day.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Amazing bet Mileni - good luck however you decide to play it. What made you go for Our Father if you don't mind me asking?

[cpo]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Another strange one from pricewise tipping up carlito brigante at 50/1

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I see now as the worst time to lay Our Father. I think the horse is classy and even if he qualifies for the Pertempts (that means good run in the qualifier), he will shorten even more for World Hurlde. Plus, I don't really need the 400 quid. I prefer to wait. He isn't without a chance. One day Big Bucks will get beat. There has to be a good horse out there sooner or later that will give him a run for the money. And on top of that if Fly and Quevega win, then I'll be sitting on a potential big profit with Big Bucks on the treble. So Big Bucks or Our Father, it would be sweet if either of the two win. Steve, what made me go is the fact that he kept going up in the handicap after Shoreacres kept running well. His initial mark was 140 I think, but handicapper raised him twice after Shore had run 2 good efforts, so he ended up 148. Off 140 he could've run and won a Pertempts qualifier and then would be 150-ish for the final. If he runs and wins off 148 then he'd be too high to go the handicap route. And Pipe apparently rates him very close to Grands Crus.

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

I see now as the worst time to lay Our Father. I think the horse is classy and even if he qualifies for the Pertempts (that means good run in the qualifier), he will shorten even more for World Hurlde. Plus, I don't really need the 400 quid. I prefer to wait. He isn't without a chance. One day Big Bucks will get beat. There has to be a good horse out there sooner or later that will give him a run for the money. And on top of that if Fly and Quevega win, then I'll be sitting on a potential big profit with Big Bucks on the treble. So Big Bucks or Our Father, it would be sweet if either of the two win. Steve, what made me go is the fact that he kept going up in the handicap after Shoreacres kept running well. His initial mark was 140 I think, but handicapper raised him twice after Shore had run 2 good efforts, so he ended up 148. Off 140 he could've run and won a Pertempts qualifier and then would be 150-ish for the final. If he runs and wins off 148 then he'd be too high to go the handicap route. And Pipe apparently rates him very close to Grands Crus.

You are guaranteed 400 quid profit if you do it, and you will get 800 quid if it wins, you staked 15 quid, how is it the worst time to lay Our Father when your guaranteed 400 quid before the race even starts? (presuming it runs).... There aint a hope in hell Our Father will come close to beating Big Bucks imo, and even if you dont need the 400 quid, im sure you could use it for other ante-post ventures. Its not everyday you get a free 400 quid put into your pocket.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 It is the worst time, because I think he'd be a lot shorter in a few weeks time. It's that simple. You could see 400 not a bad return with 15 staked, but even if I'm wrong and Our Father isn't as good as I think I only lose 15 quid. On top of that I've already had one of my biggest bets of the year at 11/4 last time out, so he's already paid me for this weekend, and Cheltenham (regardless in which race he runs). I break on profit from him whatever he does.

[Lars]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

You are guaranteed 400 quid profit if you do it, and you will get 800 quid if it wins, you staked 15 quid, how is it the worst time to lay Our Father when your guaranteed 400 quid before the race even starts? (presuming it runs).... There aint a hope in hell Our Father will come close to beating Big Bucks imo, and even if you dont need the 400 quid, im sure you could use it for other ante-post ventures. Its not everyday you get a free 400 quid put into your pocket.

Come off it Aidy, think about it :lol

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Come off it Aidy' date=' think about it :lol[/quote'] Think about what mate?

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 .

[wistful]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

It is the worst time' date=' because I think he'd be a lot shorter in a few weeks time. It's that simple. You could see 400 not a bad return with 15 staked, but even if I'm wrong and Our Father isn't as good as I think I only lose 15 quid. On top of that I've already had one of my biggest bets of the year at 11/4 last time out, so he's already paid me for this weekend, and Cheltenham (regardless in which race he runs). I break on profit from him whatever he does.[/quote'] Mileni. I broadly agree with Aidymac on this. Your reasoning does not make sense. It's irrelevant whether the horse has already won you money or not. It's what you do now that counts. The £15 stake is small beer. Agreed. The £400 or more profit, now bankable, is not small beer. If you are confident that the horse's price will shorten, or if you think that there is a reasonable chance that his price will shorten considerably, then sure, hold onto the bet. But past winnings on the horse should have no effect on your decision making. Having said all the above, I would probably do exactly as you are doing for the fun and excitement of holding onto a huge price. Good luck. :D

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Not really, I have completely different view. When you back progressive horses you can almost automatically back them again after they have won for you the first time. Sometimes it's like you're following them blindly. I backed Mostly Bob last year at Doncaster and he won. Then he flopped a few times, but I kept backing him and he won again at a big price at Cheltenham on New Year's day. Now he might be handicapped to the tilt, but he might keep improving, so I'll back again for Kim Muir or wherever he goes. He's won me fair few quid and I can "afford" it so to say. If you can spot an improver early and he wins few times for you, you can "waste" a few points. The trick here is, you're not really "wasting" anything, because they keep winning. If you've spotted the right horse of course. So Our Father I think is a Grade 1 horse in handicaps. He has already paid me and I think is still well handicapped, so I would back again. Dynaste I didn't get right and he already won. Yes he might win off current mark or in some grade event, where Big Bucks isn't running, but I won't back him, cos I didn't start following him when he was winning handicaps. He's not one of mine :) Same with Green Destiny. He wins his seasonal debut at Newmarket, but then flops at Royal Ascot. Because he's won me a bit I can afford to keep on the right side. He won his next race, but again flopped after that. Then he won for me when I was at York. If you keep persisting with the horses you initially thought will be improving, you can win. Of course there is always a case, when you get a horse badly wrong, but you should know when to get out. Tullamore Dew is probably one of those and maybe it's better for the bank and the nerves to just give up. The jockeys he has on board are useless, but I know he's so well handicapped I just can't help it, I keep backing :)

[fintron]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 In the Weekender today Dessie Hughes says Minsk is one of the best he has trained. He hasn't yet jumped a hurdle but holds an entry in the Triumph.

[keithbeaky]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

In the Weekender today Dessie Hughes says Minsk is one of the best he has trained. He hasn't yet jumped a hurdle but holds an entry in the Triumph.

I dont see him having the pace for the Triumph and would fancy him for the World hurdle in a year or two. Interesting to see him jump in public and Saturday's juvenile race at Cheltenham is a cracker if they stand their ground.

[cpo]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 He makes his hurdle debut on feb 12th in grade 1 company

[fintron]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

I dont see him having the pace for the Triumph and would fancy him for the World hurdle in a year or two. Interesting to see him jump in public and Saturday's juvenile race at Cheltenham is a cracker if they stand their ground.

Quite possibly. It is very interesting to look at What a Charm and how that was campaigned. On the flat for John Oxx, won the November handicap (2m) at Leopardstown and rated 98 on the level. Was pitched into the Fred Winter at Cheltenham when hurdling for Athur Moore, and beat Kumbeshwar (albeit having had the benefit of previous runs over hurdles). This Minsk has a little similarity. Trained by Oxx on the flat, won the Irish Cesarewitch (also 2m) at the Curragh and rated 106 on the level. Now joins Dessie Hughes, and possibly to go back on the flat next season when he's had a dabble over timber this term. The sticking point is his lack of hurdles experience, but if a trainer of Dessie's stature is saying he is the best he has ever trained then I think he has to be listened to - Hardy Eustace was a seven time Grade 1 winner - so presumably Minsk has schooled well at home. The worry, reading the weekender, may be that Cheltenham arrives too soon - he mentions a possible race at Punchestown for him as well. I've been pondering this bet for a while after being put onto it by a mate but, after lots of fence sitting, have taken the plunge this afternoon.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Argento Chase, Cheltenham - 2.5pts e/w Time For Rupert @ 11/2 (PP) - 1/5 odds Personally I think Time For Rupert will run into a place at the least on Saturday and with slight doubts over Grands Crus' participation (for what it's worth I think he will run), the 11/2 looks a pretty sound each-way bet to me on a horse with no question marks hovering over him. I think 11/2 will look a good price should Pipe's runner not go so is worth a large but hopefully, relatively safe bet. This is a big day for Webber's horse, who needs to prove his Gold Cup credentials after a morale-draining defeat at Haydock, but is still a very classy animal and relishes the course at Cheltenham. Put in a good effort in the Charlie Hall considering he didn't look particularly fit that day behind Weird Al, and the fact that horse ran so well behind Kauto Star and Long Run at Haydock offers hope for Rupert, even though he was further behind on that occasion. His jumping was a bit lethargic up the straight and he probably shouldn't have been beaten as far as he was. Either way, he was pitched in behind the very highest-class horses and even though his jumping is very good, Kauto's was magnificent. Obviously the front two there battled it out again at Kempton in the King George and the race on Saturday isn't anywhere near as strong. I know Grands Crus will be tough to beat and he was impressive last time out, but he is yet to be tested against anything absolutely top-class yet. I rate Bobs Worth but he jumped a bit poorly at Kempton and although blatantly high-class, I don't think he's top-class, and the same applies to Silviniaco Conti. Rupert will enjoy racing against first, and second season chasers again I think as his main dangers (Diamond Harry 3rd season but still relatively new to the game) and I think he can reverse Haydock form with that one back at Cheltenham. I'm not convinced Captain Chris will get home so I think the fact Rupert is likely to run his race, gives him a top chance of being there or there abouts. His record at Cheltenham is excellent (122115) with no bad runs - seconds to Tidal Bay and Big Bucks over hurdles, and wasn't right when running a gallant race under the circumstances in last year's RSA. He relishes the test here and stays the trip strongly. Jumps well and his confidence booster last time was pretty straight-forward, even though the winning distance wasn't huge. Jumped well, O'Regan was very pleased with his effort up the straight, and this horse only really does enough. was only nudged out and it was a good performance from a horse who won't do too much on the bridle. The conditions are absolutely spot on for him and he will have to win this to have any real hope of lifting the Gold Cup in March. It still remains unlikely, but he has every chance of running respectively in the contest and that means he has a really sound chance of at the very least making the frame here. If he doesn't it would be a major disappointment and I think his proven jumping, stamina, and enjoyment of the track will make things difficult for the market leaders.

[cpo]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Grands crus non runner on sat

[billvernon]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I think that Captain Chris will run well in this he seems to be the obvious horse - Connections believe him to be a Gold Cup horse so that is why he is in this race. Horses running in the King George do well following that race - Yes I know he was 3rd but I think that the race has given him experience and Hopefully he will improve. He needs to win this to run well in the Gold Cup otherwise I think he will be entered for the Ryanair.:hope

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Good stuff. 11/2 looks very fair for TFR now.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Any indications as to where Sir Des Champs might go after today? Any interviews by Mullins on ATR? Fear they might be tempted for Jewson because of owner having so many good horses, but I can't help but think that the RSA is tailor-made for him.

[mowgli77]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Any indications as to where Sir Des Champs might go after today? Any interviews by Mullins on ATR? Fear they might be tempted for Jewson because of owner having so many good horses' date=' but I can't help but think that the RSA is tailor-made for him.[/quote'] I didn't see any after race interview but ATR is covering Leopardstown, Doncaster, Uttoxeter and Lingfield so no sooner has one race done they are off to another course today. I'll be backing it whichever race it goes for, impressed me today and was practically eased down at the line. Jumped well too whereas Hidden Cyclone clouted one early on. I'd imagine there will be interview details in tomorrows RP, if I see anything I'll post it up. :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 You wouldn't see a better jumper mate. Very impressive and we know he is 150-ish on his Cheltenham run. Pretty much thereabouts in whatever race he goes, but he is a stayer. Trainer has always said it and only owner is forcing him at the moment.