Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

[mowgli77]

I think a few of us had some decent ante post punts last year, mainly for the Cheltenham Festival and with the jumps season getting into full swing I thought it might prove popular to have an ante post thread for the big races coming up each weekend. Similar to the key races threads that Bowles put up before but without the need for a new sticky thread every week we can try use this for all ante post bets and see how we got on at the end of the season. This weekends big race is the Betfair Chase at Haydock and looking at early prices I feel Time For Rupert is a big price at 9-1 (William Hill). It has apparently shed loads of weight since Wetherby and I would expect it to come on a bundle for that debut run. It seemed to have genuine reasons for flopping at the festival last year and should be back to its best this season. On ratings it is miles behind Long Run but I don't want to be on that at the price despite really rating it highly. Long Run supposedly spot on for the race but I'd still expect it to come on for the run like last year. Really interesting to see how Weird Al does now. Had this as one to follow last year but regressed and not sure it will carry on the Wetherby form and fancy TFR to reverse that form. Also interesting to see if Kauto Star, now 11 years old is past it and could possibly be the last time we see it on a racecourse if it sulks and disappoints. Rubi Light out of the race now so only getting paid 2 places. What are your early thoughts for Saturday?

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I have quite a bit matched on Betfair on TFR for the place. Not a particularly great price but 3 places, which is key. Will now play the win and considering field might be reduced to 6 runners come Saturday it would probably be a good wager to have. Trying to get on at the 9s @ WH, but if I can't, I will get 8s. If I had to play without 3 places, I'd go 1pt win on Long Run and 1pt win on TFR. Long Run will get almost full stake back (1.9 on Betfair) and TFR looks the other most likely winner. Never been a fan of Diamond Harry and I think he needs cut. Kauto is on the downgrade, while Weird Al was possibly flattered by Charlie Hall considering TFR wasn't fit.

[bowles10]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Good idea Phil In the Ascot Hurdle Oscar Whiskey looks a good thing but trades around 6/4 at the moment, KIng of the Night from Nicholls yard would be the danger for me So, a Henderson double with Long run would pay around 7/2 if you fancy improving the odds a bit

[Dtrains]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Sticking my neck out here but i think saturday may be the day we see long run defeated, reasons being he wasn't seen at his best first time out in last years paddy power, the gold cup itself last march was an absolutely brutal race run on nigh on good to firm ground and surely that must of left a mark, i know the plan was to maybe take in Aintree or POunchestown but they felt the Gold cup had left a mark. Thirdly cant see nicky having him hard fit as they are bigger targets over xmas then in march. Who could win it then? Going on the theory that the gold cup was brutal Kauto Star is eliminated plus he is now 11 and surely time is catching up with the legend, Nacarat cant reverse form with Time for Rupert and Weird Al so out he goes. Pure faith needs to improve 25lb and that aint gunna happen so out he goes, and Rubi light isn't running. Left with three and closer inspection of the Charlie Hall and think TFR is better longer term prospect then Wierd Al who often goes well fresh and had leg problems over the years so could see TFR reversing form. Diamond Harry is a queer horse that a great deal of mystery surrounds it and always has a cloud over his head, however posseses great ability and think it has been poorly trained two years ago won the brush hurdle at this meeting then tried taking on big bucks getting beat 6l. Then embarked on the most rushed shambolic novice chasing career ever!!!! It was only the horses class that saw him win two races, no wonder he couldn't be arsed and pulled himself up in the RSA i forgive him that effort. Showed his class yet again in the Hennessey, but was then messed about again someone decided it was best fresh and we havn't seen him since, kicked himself in his box at Wetherby was only minor and hopefully he will actually race this weekend. Suggested plays, 1pt win Time For Rupert 7/1 bet 365 2.5pt win Diamond Harry 11/2 bet 365

[Aykay1]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 One for the Grand National: Sunnyhillboy at prices in the region of 50/1 on betfair. More details in my thread but: Has appreciated it every time he has been stepped up in trip. Most recently in the Irish National, he finished a decent 4th, and was staying on the strongest of all after getting hampered and stopped in his tracks, so may get even further. He has the excellent Old Vic in his breeding, which bodes well given that one's excellent record as a sire in the Grand National in recent years. An O’Neill/McManus horse, I cant believe they wont consider the National for him and who knows, Maybe he will end up as McCoys mount on the day? Getting a bit ahead of myself there but 50/1 looks a decent price for now.

[TheRat]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Market ruined by 7 runners now, if I was going to play would be on TFR, think Long Run is worth taking on, certainly at the price. Think he will come on for the run, trainer says the same and that he came out of the race well. Backed him for the GC too EW. See you won some tickets there Phil :ok Have a good day Got a few other ante post bets down. A Quvega/BB/Fly Treble for just under 20/1. The Fly is now out of Sundays race saying he is not 100% (Mullins, not the horse!) but same happened last year so nothing to worry about. The other two speak for themselves really. Quvega will likely go straight for the mares race and it is hard seeing anything beat her and unless BB has took a massive downward curve then I can't see anything taking him on, even trainers of decent horses can't be bothered to try and tackle the machine! Also backed Dylan Ross EW for the Supreme at 33/1. He impressed FTO this year and the form was franked. He ran again on Sunday but finished behind a Gigginstown horse, still not put off by this but was a race you would have hoped he won. Still was in contention going to the last and didn't jump it that well, just seemed to lose momentum when he landed. Backed Sir Des Champs for the RSA at 25/1. Won impressively at the festival last year, still lightly raced but clearly has a touch of class. Looking forward to seeing him out again, not convinced Grands Crus will go for this either yet, and some of the leading players in the market, so come March might not be as competitive as it looks. No doubt the Novice Chasing division is very hot this year

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I was going to post up an ante-post bet on Rupert for Saturday a bit later on! 9s is a cracking price e/w with 3 places when you consider 3 rivals haven't run this season, and the main one who has, I think he'll reverse form with. Looked like he'd come on massively for his Wetherby run, as well as showing the promise that he was on the right track by jumping pretty well. Kauto has questions to answer, Diamond Harry has never raced on a decent surface, and who knows whether Long Run will be 100% fit enough to take this - and obviously isn't a bombproof jumper. I'll be disappointed if TFR isn't in the top three and as long as Long Run doesn't prove way too strong for the field, I don't see him being far away at all.

[TheRat]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 It's 2 places now though due to Rubi Light being a non runner

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I wouldnt be so quick to rule out Kauto Star for this race! I personally think odds-on for Long Run is ridiculous, no doubting it is now the best horse in the race if all run to their potential, but its his first run of the year at the weekend and there surely has to be some fitness doubts? He was largely fancied to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase last year, it was his first run of the year and he finished 3rd behing Little Josh so for me i would certainly not be going in here at odds of 4/5 on Long Run. Diamond Harry has run in November twice before and won both races but was found to be lame recently and also has fitness doubts. Also Harry has failed to win on his last 2 visits to Cheltenham. My fancy is Kauto Star who will love the ground, Ruby has chosen to ride Kauto over Master Minded, Nicholls is adamant that the horse is bouncing at home, and even though its now an old horse, i feel with the form Nicholls is in and the fitness doubts of Long Run , with such a small field and at this time of year, Kauto @ 8/1 to me looks rather big!

[mowgli77]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

See you won some tickets there Phil :ok Have a good day

I wasn't even aware. :) just saw your post and thought WTF? just checked Twitter, only entered last night and was one of the last winners. Now to decide if I go to Haydock or Bradford v Rotherham. :loon I'll predict that Kauto runs his last race on Saturday and retires. :(

[bowles10]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 the only thing that will beat Long Run is fitness, i still think Henderson will have it spot on for this race. The horse won the King George and the Gold cup last year. Time for Rupert won the ......well it won 2 novice chases and then was easily beaten in the RSA (although excuses given) Long Run wont have many wanting to take odds on but i expect we may see a shade of evens available hopefully. I am stil doubling up with Oscar whiskey with a possible saver on 2 horses in those races. The thread is pointing me towards TFR although not sure it can overhaul Weird Al after WA beat it LTO 3.5L and 3lbs. Diamond Harry is the one i keep coming back to, albeit it concerns me about the last 2 years but its a serious jumper and also jumps at speed which is required here.

[mowgli77]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

the only thing that will beat Long Run is fitness, i still think Henderson will have it spot on for this race. The horse won the King George and the Gold cup last year. Time for Rupert won the ......well it won 2 novice chases and then was easily beaten in the RSA (although excuses given) Long Run wont have many wanting to take odds on but i expect we may see a shade of evens available hopefully. I am stil doubling up with Oscar whiskey with a possible saver on 2 horses in those races. The thread is pointing me towards TFR although not sure it can overhaul Weird Al after WA beat it LTO 3.5L and 3lbs. Diamond Harry is the one i keep coming back to, albeit it concerns me about the last 2 years but its a serious jumper and also jumps at speed which is required here.

Have you seen the trainers comments about TFR, Bowlesy? He says it has shifted around 8kg-10kg since its last race. As you say only fitness will beat Long Run but surely he can't get it spot on now and December, needs to leave it a bit undercooked if the King George is the main aim and I'd argue that it was fitness that got TFR beaten last time out. A fair few tipping Diamond Harry in the Weekender due to its record fresh (won fresh in last 5 seasons) and has won at Haydock twice (1 x hurdle, 1 x chase). TFR really needs to step up now if it is the real deal, no excuses this weekend. Both TFR and Weird Al broke blood vessels last season. In terms of value I just can't be having Long Run at odds on with 2-3 genuine contenders against it.

[TheRat]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Defo time for TFR to stepup this weekend if he is serious. Totally agree. At the prices I am happy to take a chance now I think. Dylan Ross form franked again with Savello winning again, beating Staying Article today. Not one to give up on just yet

[bowles10]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Have you seen the trainers comments about TFR, Bowlesy? He says it has shifted around 8kg-10kg since its last race. As you say only fitness will beat Long Run but surely he can't get it spot on now and December, needs to leave it a bit undercooked if the King George is the main aim and I'd argue that it was fitness that got TFR beaten last time out. A fair few tipping Diamond Harry in the Weekender due to its record fresh (won fresh in last 5 seasons) and has won at Haydock twice (1 x hurdle, 1 x chase). TFR really needs to step up now if it is the real deal, no excuses this weekend. Both TFR and Weird Al broke blood vessels last season. In terms of value I just can't be having Long Run at odds on with 2-3 genuine contenders against it.

Thanks Phil my problem over the years has been opposing some decent animals. I am of the opinion that Long Run could be very very decent. After winning the GC at 6yo, they have a chance of reigning supreme for the next 3 years. Yes, there will be those wanting to take the title off the horse. Saturday really depends on whether Henderson wants to leave a little off before Kempton. I am thinking of the saver on either TFR or DH on saturday to back up the double on LR and Oscar W.

[TheRat]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Despite being fav I think Oscar Whiskey is a good price, same with Captain Chris who was staying on really well before unseating. In fact if you re watch the race he travells so well from the second last to the last it is untrue. Henderson says Long Run has gotten stronger and improved which is a frightening prospect but still, I want to see it first!

[Trotter]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Nacarat is going to miss the race on saturday..........shame as he might have ensured a decent pace

[mowgli77]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Nacarat is going to miss the race on saturday..........shame as he might have ensured a decent pace

Exactly what I thought when I saw it was out. Probably won't affect the betting too much as it was about 25-1 but could mean TFR goes from the front and could change the way the race is run.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Exactly what I thought when I saw it was out. Probably won't affect the betting too much as it was about 25-1 but could mean TFR goes from the front and could change the way the race is run.

Definitely wouldn't be against TFR bowling along in front if there isn't a huge amount of pace. He hadn't made the running before the Charlie Hall (even that was disputed), but he is susceptible to the odd minor flat spot, so positive tactics could prove an advantage for him. If he does go from the front, you know you're likely to get a good round of jumping with a positive Will Kennedy and a horse who won't be stopping, so he could put the pressure on the others. I would imagine it could be fairly likely, especially if the ground is not on the soft side, as Kennedy will know that TFR will want it to be a test, and he may have to make it a test himself. Excluding Pure Faith, I could only see Diamond Harry as a possible front-runner.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Definitely wouldn't be against TFR bowling along in front if there isn't a huge amount of pace. He hadn't made the running before the Charlie Hall (even that was disputed), but he is susceptible to the odd minor flat spot, so positive tactics could prove an advantage for him. If he does go from the front, you know you're likely to get a good round of jumping with a positive Will Kennedy and a horse who won't be stopping, so he could put the pressure on the others. I would imagine it could be fairly likely, especially if the ground is not on the soft side, as Kennedy will know that TFR will want it to be a test, and he may have to make it a test himself. Excluding Pure Faith, I could only see Diamond Harry as a possible front-runner.

It's a lot easier Nacarat to take you through it however. Then Will can take it up on the 2nd circuit. If TFR makes pace from the start, he isn't winning this. Very hard to do it unless you have a proper good judge of pace and I don't think Will Kennedy is one.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

It's a lot easier Nacarat to take you through it however. Then Will can take it up on the 2nd circuit. If TFR makes pace from the start' date=' he isn't winning this. Very hard to do it unless you have a proper good judge of pace and I don't think Will Kennedy is one.[/quote'] Possibly even harder for him to win held up off a slow pace though. He's not going to outsprint them.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Possibly even harder for him to win held up off a slow pace though. He's not going to outsprint them.

Well that's as if you're telling me "the moon spins round the earth". Of course he won't outsprint them. I'm just saying the absence of Nacarat makes it a lot tougher for TFR.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Well that's as if you're telling me "the moon spins round the earth". Of course he won't outsprint them. I'm just saying the absence of Nacarat makes it a lot tougher for TFR.

Which suggests off what looks to be a very dubious pace, he should try and put the pressure on from the front. Ideally something or two horses will go on and set a decent tempo, but it seems unlikely. What I'm saying is, there doesn't seem to be a choice but to make the running.

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Which suggests off what looks to be a very dubious pace, he should try and put the pressure on from the front. Ideally something or two horses will go on and set a decent tempo, but it seems unlikely. What I'm saying is, there doesn't seem to be a choice but to make the running.

Why cant he sit in 2nd or 3rd and take up the running half a mile out?

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Why cant he sit in 2nd or 3rd and take up the running half a mile out?

He can. But I think for him to win the real high-class races, he needs them to be a real test. He's not going to be able to put the pressure on from that close to home and I reckon something can go with him and outspeed him. He can hit a mini flat spot which isn't ideal if you're a little behind - especially over 3 miles away from Cheltenham. I think he has a limited chance if he sits off a slow pace and it turns into a sprint. In an ideal world he'd do what you suggested, but off a true gallop. I'm just saying I wouldn't like to see him behind off a slow pace. Especially on good ground. There's a reason he flourishes on soft ground over a testing three miles at Cheltenham.

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

He can. But I think for him to win the real high-class races, he needs them to be a real test. He's not going to be able to put the pressure on from that close to home and I reckon something can go with him and outspeed him. He can hit a mini flat spot which isn't ideal if you're a little behind - especially over 3 miles away from Cheltenham. I think he has a limited chance if he sits off a slow pace and it turns into a sprint. In an ideal world he'd do what you suggested, but off a true gallop. I'm just saying I wouldn't like to see him behind off a slow pace. Especially on good ground. There's a reason he flourishes on soft ground over a testing three miles at Cheltenham.

But TFR has won on good ground twice already, i cant see the ground being too much of a problem. The time he won on good ground at Cheltenham last December tracked leaders in 4th, headway to go 2nd 5 out, led before 2 out, ridden and stayed on well flat I see no reason why the horse has to lead!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

But TFR has won on good ground twice already, i cant see the ground being too much of a problem. The time he won on good ground at Cheltenham last December tracked leaders in 4th, headway to go 2nd 5 out, led before 2 out, ridden and stayed on well flat I see no reason why the horse has to lead!

No but he's best with some cut. I'm not saying he has to lead at all - he's never led before other than a bit of a stint last time. I'm just saying he might need to do so in order to make it enough of a test tomorrow. Normally I'd be extremely happy to see him sit a few places off a nice gallop being set. However, with none guaranteed, all I am saying is I'd rather Kennedy went from the front than hold him up off a slow pace. In an ideal world something will come and set a nice pace for him - perhaps it will happen. I'm just not sure if it will without Nacarat in there.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Very tricky looking race. We are kind of in the dark with the likes of Kauto Star Long run & Diamond Harry, the price of Long Run is way to short for me in a race like this. Trainer N.Williams just sends out the one runner on this card that being Diamond Harry. It looks another cracker to watch but i just side with Diamond Harry and for me the Danger would be Weird Al.

[bowles10]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 i really cant believe no one has gone for long run, the King george winner and gold cup winner Henderson had 5 winners today across 2 cards, so why wont it be fit?

[mowgli77]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Why cant he sit in 2nd or 3rd and take up the running half a mile out?

I think the issue is - What is it going to sit in behind? No recognised front runner so does it want a crawl off a slow pace or take up the running as BFR suggests? Nacarat taking it along was ideal, we needed Aidan O'Brien to send a few of his pacemakers that can jump a fence. :)

[mowgli77]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

i really cant believe no one has gone for long run, the King george winner and gold cup winner Henderson had 5 winners today across 2 cards, so why wont it be fit?

I think the price is the issue for most punters, rather than just the fitness. If it wins at a short price so be it, it's a risk/reward scenario and a question of value. I'd be quite happy to see it unbeaten all season from a TTF point of view but won't be getting involved tomorrow at the price. :ok