TheRat Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Jump City is a dog though I think. The way Darlan was rode and the comments after made me think he is much better and they are playing him down to keep a bit of a price about him, but I still wouldn't back. Happy to stick with Dylan Ross who will appreciate the quicker ground for now but might have a little on Mono Man too, form is solid and should improve next time for it and considering his price vs the others he is looks worth an EW play. Geraghty has a solid choice though in the Supreme, a hard one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Dylan Ross is definitely a live outsider, I just don't like the way he's had the chance to win his last three races and thrown them all away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 High Storm lets the form down on Darlan. Jump City he could've beaten 15L I agree, but was made to battle at Chelt and just beat High Storm on the line. Doesn't look anything special to me. Cinders and Ashes will be the one hard to asses, because Donald will keep him in the North all season and send him down just like Peddlers Cross. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 It might be his a bit ungenuine, possibly. I think the ground he will likely get at Cheltenham will improve him, although last time he had better ground. I actually got him added to the Betfair market and got some money up to 50s matched so pretty pleased with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Tetlami, Broadbackbob and Keys.. does Henderson have some good novices or what? :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benreado Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Cinders and Ashes represents good each way value. Donald McCain's made it clear in his BF column he thinks a lot of the horse and everything he's done so far has been very impressive. I think his second to Broadbackbob on his first run over hurdles is probably some of the best form we've seen this season considering he was badly hampered halfway through losing at least 8 lengths and momentum. I think he was awarded a RPR of around 145 despite things not going his way in play that day. His second race when comfortably reversing the bumper form with Keys was also very impressive (120 rated Ile De Re was 30 lengths back in third that day). I wouldn't put anybody off backing Cinders at 20/1 because you know you're going to get a good run from a horse that's been well prepared by a top trainer and a very capable jockey on board in Jason Maguire. On the other hand if you were to back a Henderson runner at this stage you can't be sure what jockey you'll have onboard (unless you're backing Darlan) or even if you'll get a run out of your money. I'm also very keep to be on Spirit Son in the CH and I think 7/1 NRNB is decent value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Tetlami' date=' Broadbackbob and Keys.. does Henderson have some good novices or what? :loon[/quote'] Henderson has a ridiculous team going into Cheltenham atm, leading fancy in almost every race. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Anyone have any idea what the craic is with Burton Port? Read he was due back on the course in February but I haven't heard much more about him. Big fan of the horse. Shame his jumping isn't top notch but he has a real engine. Tough for quite a small horse relatively speaking though. He'd have an RSA and a Hennessy to his name if he didn't make bad mistakes in those races. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Henderson has a ridiculous team going into Cheltenham atm' date=' leading fancy in almost every race. :D[/quote'] To have at least 4 winners is 11/10. That ain't a bad bet. Last year he was unlucky with only 2 winners, but 5 or how many 2nds? This year he's got an even stronger team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Not sure tbh, looks a bit skinny to rely on four winners. How many winners does the top trainer usually have? Probably the likely strong pace and good ground will suit Oscars Well' date=' but I just think he lacks class. Overrated because he made a mistake in the Neptune, but who's to say he would've won? I thought So Young was winning it and his mistake wasn't even mentioned. Everyone was talking about Oscars, because his mistake was big, but So Young's was equally bad. Lost any chance to get involved.[/quote'] Only realised just how bad his mistake was a week or two ago when I re-watched. What went wrong with him at Punchestown? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Only realised just how bad his mistake was a week or two ago when I re-watched. What went wrong with him at Punchestown? At Punch he was just outclassed. The moment Thousand kicked he couldn't go with him. Oscar as a sire, can't see him being a 2 miler. Needs a step up in trip for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Was talking about So Young after last year's festival :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Aye, over the top I would say. Seriously good horse. Ruby has been saying he's quite good the day he sat on him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billvernon Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Early I know and at the moment going against my rule to have a horse have a run after christmas - But a horse I have had a tickle on is Wierd Al in the Gold Cup - 9 years old and ran 3rd to both Long Run and Kauto Star in the Betfair chase - The race was ok time wise and he was only 10 lengths behind Kauto and 2 lengths behind Long Run.He is close to the pre-requisite number of 9 chase runs in his figures (8) . I think he is as his trainer said - best fresh and D.Mccain is training him for the Gold Cup. His OR is 164 which brings him into the reckoning he was staying on . At 20/1 at the moment I think he stands a good chance. I know he was unplaced last year but he had a problem during the run- pulled up Broke Blood Vessel. And yes 3rd last time but that was only 30 days after the Charlie Hall chase and he seems the type to need a break between races. He has won at Cheltenham so has course form. He just seems to tick a few boxes so worth a dabble. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewPunter Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I'm on Colour Squadron and Cinders & Ashes e/w in the Supreme so far, tempted to back Montbazon as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 What did you guys make of Sadlers Risk today? I thought he was pretty impressive although didn't beat much. Probably has the best flat form of the Triumph contenders other than Minsk. Can't wait to see Minsk in action now... out to 12's with some bookies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Triumph has to be the worst antepost market going atm. Horrible stuff. Milen you were right about Ericht, needs further and won't be winning any graded races. Form with PW and STF looking worse by the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Triumph has to be the worst antepost market going atm. Horrible stuff. Milen you were right about Ericht, needs further and won't be winning any graded races. Form with PW and STF looking worse by the day. STF might improve, still not to be written off. Form is blatantly bad though. Prospect Wells has been campaigned wrongly. Probably not good enough either. Ericht definitely needs trip, I'm still not sure why they're running him over 2m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Agree about STF but I see him as a handicapper rather than gonna progress into a top top horse. Probably will run well in Supreme but I'd be disappointed if three or four can't beat him home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Agree about STF but I see him as a handicapper rather than gonna progress into a top top horse. Probably will run well in Supreme but I'd be disappointed if three or four can't beat him home. No way he should be antepost fav at this moment in time. The O'Grady horse he beat by 1L at Punch (receiving lumps of weight as well) only managed to finish 7th in the Ladbroke off 144. Same with Prospect Wells - 4th off 142, then well beat at Sandown. He's 150 at best. You would think there are 2,3 better than him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 In regards to the Triumph, I think I am happy to go into the race with my one bet on Grumeti at 14's. Like you said BKI it's a horrible market ante-post. I read somewhere Paul Nicholls has only entered Al Ferof in the QMCC just in case something happens to the big 2 but he is likely to go for the Arkle. Hopefully I will get a run for my money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 In regards to the Triumph, I think I am happy to go into the race with my one bet on Grumeti at 14's. Like you said BKI it's a horrible market ante-post. I read somewhere Paul Nicholls has only entered Al Ferof in the QMCC just in case something happens to the big 2 but he is likely to go for the Arkle. Hopefully I will get a run for my money If he wins the VC surely they'd be tempted though? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 If he wins the VC surely they'd be tempted though? Yeh I would be tempted if it were my horse but theres nothing in the VC the same calibre as the top 2 in the QMCC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
switzerland Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I'm a big STF fan. Its a typically competitive Supreme but I think he will be very hard to keep out of the frame. The form of the Cheltenham race has taken a few knocks but he won it despite the slow pace and some sketchy jumping. The Supreme is always run at a real gallop and he is one horse that should love that as he travels so well into his races. I've said this a few times before but he would have had a much higher rating on the flat if he had broke from the stalls better - so he is underestimated by some purely on flat ratings. Jessie Harrington is no mug and she can get one ready for the festival. Galileo's Choice is the dark horse I'm keeping an eye on. I saw him at Naas the day he finished 2nd to Sous Le Cieux. On good ground he could be a serious horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Yeh I would be tempted if it were my horse but theres nothing in the VC the same calibre as the top 2 in the QMCC Possibly, but these sudden change of plans and entries for Al Ferof aren't accidental. Nicholls knows pretty well Sprinter Sacre is superstar in the making. That's how I see it anyway :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 He is just covering all the bases :unsure I don't think the Arkle is a foregone conclusion. Favourites have a woeful record in the race. SS came there cruising last year in the Supreme but Al Ferof beat him. I don't see why the same thing can't happen again. In my opinion both horses have improved for the switch to fences. SS is much quicker over them but if Al Ferof is anywhere near him approaching the 2nd last or even last I'd take Al Ferof to out battle him. Al Ferof loves Cheltenham and absolutely fly's up the hill. Thats what I think anyways Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 He is just covering all the bases :unsure I don't think the Arkle is a foregone conclusion. Favourites have a woeful record in the race. SS came there cruising last year in the Supreme but Al Ferof beat him. I don't see why the same thing can't happen again. In my opinion both horses have improved for the switch to fences. SS is much quicker over them but if Al Ferof is anywhere near him approaching the 2nd last or even last I'd take Al Ferof to out battle him. Al Ferof loves Cheltenham and absolutely fly's up the hill. Thats what I think anyways Any of the two would do for me. 10s and 14s :D Al Ferof picked up the pieces in the Supreme. Spinter Sacre will take him out of his comfort zone over fences I think. Plus SS pulled AP's hands for most of the race and still hit the front pulling double on the turn. Just didn't have the finishing effort due to his earlier exertions. Chasing is a different ball game however and he's one year older. Fences will make him a true champion. Probably if you had run the Supreme again in April, Spirit Son would've beaten Al Ferof. Race kinda fell apart and he picked up the pieces late. Quite a few looked the winner from 3 out to 1 out and then he somehow came from nowhere to win. He's still a fantastic horse and you wouldn't see a better jumper in the novice department this year. I just have a feeling he'll end up over 2m5f in time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 SS tanked through Supreme and was produced a furlong too early. Al Ferof picked up the pieces imo. I don't really see him as an Arkle winner. I actually think Menorah is the main danger to SS atm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 lol milen, stop copying me. :loon Why are they aiming Silviniaco at Jewson (according to markets anyway)? I thought RSA trip would be his best, ran a cracker lto. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 lol milen, stop copying me. :loon Why are they aiming Silviniaco at Jewson (according to markets anyway)? I thought RSA trip would be his best, ran a cracker lto. He won't win at the Festival wherever he goes, so it's irrelevant ;) AP wasn't great on SS was he? Barry Geraghty is so much better. Him and Ruby are a joy to watch on these young and exciting novices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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