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Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

mowgli77

By mowgli77
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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mileni4uk

mileni4uk

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Been going through the handicaps last few days and probably my best bet comes on the last day of the festival in the Martin Pipe Conditionals. I thought Big Easy won quite well the other day beating Timeswasting, who boosts some very decent form being 2nd to Rangitoto last season, the pair well clear. The horses from that race 1,3,4,5 have all done quite well since and I have no doubt that Big Easy and Times are very well handicapped horses. Not sure the exact rules for Big Easy now, does he have a 7lb penalty? Or does he race off his new mark? I think he is well handicapped and the strong pace will suit. I expect James Best to claim off him his useful allowance as well and he might go there with favourite's chance. Just praying he gets in.

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bowles10

bowles10

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

I think Sizing Europe is fast becoming my banker for next week. Quevega is too short for me but EVENS will do nicely for SE.
is there a case for Finnans Rainbow at all against your banker? This has been the target all season and the horse ran ok here in the arkle last year when 2nd to Captain Chris. Wasnt beaten much by Somersby at Ascot but this will be different. I though the vibes were bad from geraghty but they seem to be getting better and better now, is he riding Big Zeb or Finnans?
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cpo

cpo

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

is there a case for Finnans Rainbow at all against your banker? This has been the target all season and the horse ran ok here in the arkle last year when 2nd to Captain Chris. Wasnt beaten much by Somersby at Ascot but this will be different. I though the vibes were bad from geraghty but they seem to be getting better and better now, is he riding Big Zeb or Finnans?
I reckon Barry will ride FR. I see FR as the main threat to SE but I think SE will be too good for him. Sizings cruising speed is phenomenal and that will put Finians jumping under pressure which I don't think will hold up. SE will cruise around Cheltenham on the bridle and one by one have have them under pressure. FR will probably be the last to come off the bridle and might even be upsides jumping the last but SE will clear away from him up the hill. That's my prediction! SE's victory last year is still fresh in the memory... the way he flew up that hill was very impressive. I see what your saying about this being FR's target but surely it has been the target for SE as well? He is 3 from 4 at the track with the the only loss coming when there was surely something wrong with him. Horses for courses and all that. SE for me is one of the best 2 mile chasers I have seen. He is as good as ever for me this season. The way he has come back from connections trying their best to ruin him by running him over 3m on soft ground has been unreal. Fair enough he probably didn't beat much at Sandown but he did it very impressively and then he put Big Zeb in his place with ease on ground softer than ideal.
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bowles10

bowles10

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 you make a good case cpo i think personally the unknown factor is Finnans as they havent raced against each other and FR will be much straighter for cheltenham than it was at Ascot i think i may be on the fcast at this rate!!

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cpo

cpo

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 One thing against SE is that only Master Minded out of the last 11 winners has successfully defended his crown. For the trends guys out there, this is the only thing I could find against SE although this years race lacks strength in depth. Your generally looking for something near the top of the betting, has won at the festival before and also horses that run in the Tingle Creek have a good record with 8 out of the last 11 winners having run in that race.

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ONEDUNME

ONEDUNME

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Don't know if this has been mentioned but already but Sportinglife are confirming that... Peddlers Cross will go for the Jewson Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Donald McCain's stable star was third-favourite for the Arkle but the trainer has gone for the Grade 2 option over a further half mile. He said on twitter on Monday night: "After schooling today we've made the decision to run Peddlers Cross in the Jewson next week at Cheltenham." In his Betfair blog, McCain added: "It has been a long road back from the setback he had at Kempton in December and we feel at this stage that the 2m4f event will be more beneficial to him in the long term, as we did when running him in the Neptune rather than the Supreme when he was a novice hurdler. "Because of his problems after Kempton, we haven't been able to school him as intensively as we would have liked and feel that going that half stride slower in the longer race makes sense."

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bowles10

bowles10

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Well thats fucked a lot of Ante Post bets up. I backed Al Ferof with paddypower after they announced their offer last week. I would usually be pleased about the Peddlers news, but i suspect it just means it increases the chances of getting my money back!
thats why AF was value last week as doubts were cast over Peddlars 9/2 i got on Paddies offer
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cpo

cpo

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I am on Al Ferof at 7/1 but don't have the fall back of getting my money back is SS wins. As Cheltenham gets closer, I find myself starting to fear Menorah more. I don't know if thats because I watched the interview with Philip Hobbs the other day on ATR but if he stays up right then surely he is in with a shout. He has a great Cheltenham record and will be suited by the bigger field and the stronger pace. He was just short of being top class over hurdles and I feel he has sort of gone under the radar because of the nature of the races he has been contesting over fences... and obviously coming down last time out.

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cpo

cpo

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Well thats fucked a lot of Ante Post bets up.
I think it's pretty shocking of McCain considering this has been the target all season and he also came out after getting hammered by SS that he thought PC could turn the tables with SS at the festival. God knows how much money has gone on PC ante-post must it be a fair amount. I know its the perils of betting ante-post but I don't think McCain has done himself any favours over this. Why would he suddenly change his mind? He can't all of a sudden believe that PC can't defeat SS. Surely there is something wrong PC which then makes you wonder why on Earth are they putting him in a race that could ruin him? Just look at last years race... nothing has come out of the race and done themselves justice this year.
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DLL

DLL

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

I'm not surprised they switched to Jewson. He knows he will get thumped by Spritner Sacre. There was nothing wrong with PC at Kempton' date=' he just couldn't live with SS jumping at speed. Al Ferof ain't bad either.[/quote'] Me neither, I said last week there was a good chance he'd go for the Jewson. He is by Oscar and there's plenty of stamina in his pedigree, I expect they'll want to step him up to 3m next year so there's no reason to take on SS at 2m really aside from wanting to run in a more prestigious race.
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Elchubb

Elchubb

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Anyone know the reason why Baby Mix is drifting for the triumph? I know Grumeti is drifting because of news him being lame, Dodging Bullets and Darroun are the pricewise selections so that's why there coming in. I'm assuming Pearl Swan and Balder Succes are coming in due to the negatives of others but i can't find anything on Baby Mix so i don't now whats going on with that one!

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stewartd14

stewartd14

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

I think it's pretty shocking of McCain considering this has been the target all season and he also came out after getting hammered by SS that he thought PC could turn the tables with SS at the festival. God knows how much money has gone on PC ante-post must it be a fair amount. I know its the perils of betting ante-post but I don't think McCain has done himself any favours over this. Why would he suddenly change his mind? He can't all of a sudden believe that PC can't defeat SS. Surely there is something wrong PC which then makes you wonder why on Earth are they putting him in a race that could ruin him? Just look at last years race... nothing has come out of the race and done themselves justice this year.
Interrupted preparation. Personally, reading between the lines, I'm not sure how confident McCain is of him winning the Jewson. Classiest horse IMO, but not sure if he's going there 100%. Pity.
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fintron

fintron

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Been going through the handicaps last few days and probably my best bet comes on the last day of the festival in the Martin Pipe Conditionals. I thought Big Easy won quite well the other day beating Timeswasting' date=' who boosts some very decent form being 2nd to Rangitoto last season, the pair well clear. The horses from that race 1,3,4,5 have all done quite well since and I have no doubt that Big Easy and Times are very well handicapped horses. Not sure the exact rules for Big Easy now, does he have a 7lb penalty? Or does he race off his new mark? I think he is well handicapped and the strong pace will suit. I expect James Best to claim off him his useful allowance as well and he might go there with favourite's chance. Just praying he gets in.[/quote'] Milen, RE the jockey's claim in this race, I was reading Paul Jones' stats book earlier in the week and he says that the race conditions state conditionals that have ridden over 20 winners are not allowed to claim, those with 11-20 get 3lbs and those yet to ride 10 winners get 5lb. He also said that jockeys riding for their own stable are allowed an additional 3lb. I've backed Cape Dutch as, off 134 think he'll get a nice weight. Seems to love a stiff test (won at Carlise and a creditable second over an inadequate 2m at Cheltenham earlier in the season). In Jack Quinlan he'll have one of the best conditionals on his back and if that is true about a claim for those attached to a stable, he must have a chance off effectively 131? Also entered in the Coral Cup but the markets suggests the conditionals race is his primary target. Edit: just realised you were on about whether he will pick up a pen for that last win, not asking about the conditionals claim. Theres still no race conditions listed on the RP so dunno if he'll get a 7lb pen or not myself.
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fintron

fintron

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Peddlers has to be taken on in the Jewson. I held Donald McCain in high regard but think lesser of him for hoodwinking the media with Peddlers. By the sound of it, they've laid right off Peddlers at home and he's missed plenty of schooling. To the press he's said that everything was rosy though and they couldn't wait to take on Sprinter Sacre, but now they're concerned about his jumping all of a sudden in a quickly run 2m? If there are doubts over his fencing in a 2m race then for me he has to still be opposed in the Jewson. If he's missed work then he's missed work and irrespective of which race he turns up in, he's vulerable. With Invictus, Sir Des Champs and Al Ferof also likely to be non-runners in this race, there is definately an angle into backing something else at a price that could shorten. If Invictus runs well in the RSA then I might have a nibble on Champion Court, whose course form is an additional plus. Would be good to see a small trainer like Martin Keighley bag a winner.

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mileni4uk

mileni4uk

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Milen, RE the jockey's claim in this race, I was reading Paul Jones' stats book earlier in the week and he says that the race conditions state conditionals that have ridden over 20 winners are not allowed to claim, those with 11-20 get 3lbs and those yet to ride 10 winners get 5lb. He also said that jockeys riding for their own stable are allowed an additional 3lb. I've backed Cape Dutch as, off 134 think he'll get a nice weight. Seems to love a stiff test (won at Carlise and a creditable second over an inadequate 2m at Cheltenham earlier in the season). In Jack Quinlan he'll have one of the best conditionals on his back and if that is true about a claim for those attached to a stable, he must have a chance off effectively 131? Also entered in the Coral Cup but the markets suggests the conditionals race is his primary target. Edit: just realised you were on about whether he will pick up a pen for that last win, not asking about the conditionals claim. Theres still no race conditions listed on the RP so dunno if he'll get a 7lb pen or not myself.
I don't care about the jock claim, my bigger worry is if he can squeeze in the race. I didn't know it's a 5lb penalty. Now 128 and will be very tight, but it should be money back if he doesn't make the cut. Shame, because the race is a bit of a no bet with Pipe's plots being single figures. Looks like he has few that can finally win his dad's race. My 16/1 on Big Easy is great, but not optimistic to have a run for my money.
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Aidymac

Aidymac

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 My Cheltenham bets so far... Supreme Novices Hurdle *0.7 Points Win on Darlan @ 6/1* *2 Points Win on Steps To Freedom @ 6/1* Festival Handicap Chase *0.5 Points Win on Magnanimity @ 20/1 NRNB* Fred Winter *5 Points Win on Vendor @ 7/2 NRNB* I am extremely excited about Vendor. King reckons he is as good as Grumeti and is way better than his handicap mark, if this is true he should be a shoe-in...

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