Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 There is a horse in the Ladbroke Hurdle that jumps out like sore thumb to me, Sailors Warn. Besides the fact i know the owner well and know they expect it to run really well, on the formline it has a huge chance... Won a Grade 2 at Leopardstown on soft going. 2nd to Unaccompanied in a Grade 1.. 6th to Zarkander, in a race where Unaccompanied, Grandouet and Brampour came out and won afterwards, finishing ahead of Brampour... Im still looking at other runners before i make my final decision, but at the moment this is the horse to be on! 12/1 looks too big

[DLL]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I had a look last night and the Ladbrooke Hurdle looks pretty impossible to solve, there's probably 10-12 you could make a solid case for. Most of them are unexposed with only a few runs so its hard to know how good the form is or how good they'll be. One I like though is Gibb River, Henderson has a great record at Ascot overall plus from the 9 runnings of this race he's had 3 winners, a 2nd and a 3rd. He arguably would've made it 4 winners last year with Oscar Whisky had the race not been abandoned (supposed to run off 138, ran to a mark of 165 when winning a few weeks later). The horse itself ran a good 3rd (neck and a head) on his seasonal reappearance to Ubi Ace who is himself a very progressive hurdler and was a head behind Via Galilei who reapposes here off the same weights. It was Via Galilei's 4th run of the season though whereas Gibb River should be fitter here on his 2nd and is a less exposed horse (5 runs vs 15) with more scope for further improvement. Furthermore the 4th in that race Edgardo Sol who he beat 11 lengths, ran about a 136 (3rd) at Cheltenham last week when just failing to rein in the leaders. The only worry would be if the ground got too soft as he prefers a firmer surface but he can handle a bit of cut as he showed in that race. Gibb River 9/1 ew Bet365

[switzerland]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

There is a horse in the Ladbroke Hurdle that jumps out like sore thumb to me' date=' [b']Sailors Warn. Besides the fact i know the owner well and know they expect it to run really well, on the formline it has a huge chance... Won a Grade 2 at Leopardstown on soft going. 2nd to Unaccompanied in a Grade 1.. 6th to Zarkander, in a race where Unaccompanied, Grandouet and Brampour came out and won afterwards, finishing ahead of Brampour... Im still looking at other runners before i make my final decision, but at the moment this is the horse to be on! 12/1 looks too big

I do like this horse Aidy and as you pointed out he has good form lines with Steps to Freedom and Unaccompanied. But I would be surprised if there wasn't one good enough to beat him. I thought Unaccompanied beat him very convincingly lto - albeit it in heavy ground at Naas which might not have suited him. Prospect Wells looks pretty smart to me and would be my idea of the winner at this stage.

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

I do like this horse Aidy and as you pointed out he has good form lines with Steps to Freedom and Unaccompanied. But I would be surprised if there wasn't one good enough to beat him. I thought Unaccompanied beat him very convincingly lto - albeit it in heavy ground at Naas which might not have suited him. Prospect Wells looks pretty smart to me and would be my idea of the winner at this stage.

The Ladbrokes Hurdle has been the aim though, dont think it was quite 100% last time out... There isnt that much between Sailors Warn and Prospect Wells on form and Prospect @ 4/1 and Sailor @ 12/1 i know where the value lies! Sailors Warn likes the soft going too by the way... I havent put my bet on yet as 2 other horses interest me , Third Intention and Marsh Warbler.... I will be backing one of those 3

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Just had a look at Ascot this weekend and saw Planet Of Sound has been raised.. guess what.. 1lb for the Hennessy 2nd :D How often is a Hennessy 2nd raised 1lb? God it was an awful race!

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Anyone know where i can find the weights for the Ladbroke Hurdle or are they not out yet?

[TheRat]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 http://www.attheraces.com/card.aspx?raceid=677941&meetingid=50555&date=2011-12-17&ref=fixtures&refsite=&nav=racecards

[DLL]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Anyone know where i can find the weights for the Ladbroke Hurdle or are they not out yet?

Bear in mind they'll all go up 11lb if Brampour is withdrawn as expected.

[TheRat]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Not if they leave him in until late thoguh?

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Nothing worse... Im torn between 2 horses, Sailors Warn and Third Intention... Im going to plough into one of them, but i have equal reasons to back both!! Decisions Decisions :\

[beaker1]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 1 99-113 Brampour 7 4 11-12 Paul Nicholls49 159 157 164 2 1110-2 Marsh Warbler 28 4 11-1 Brian Ellison46 148 151 156 3 5-4262 Via Galilei 14 6 10-12 Gary Moore78 145 154 158 4 6-7122 Sailors Warn 35 4 10-11 E J O´Grady67 144 144 160 5 1110-3 Gibb River 14 5 10-11 Nicky Henderson68 144 144 158 6 2125-1 Desert Cry 29 5 10-10 Donald McCain67 143 155 161 7 121 Prospect Wells 21 6 10-9 Paul Nicholls49 R Walsh 142 152 159 8 271-67 Third Intention 34 4 10-9 Colin Tizzard55 142 158 161 9 321105 Viva Colonia 34 6 10-6 David O´Meara50 139 158 161 10 12P-P5 Rajdhani Express 14 4 10-6 Nicky Henderson68 139 103 148 11 141-2F Tonic Mellysse 31 4 10-5 Paul Nicholls49 138 138 153 12 2104-5 Alarazi 21 7 10-3 Lucy Wadham67 136 145 163 13 1113 Abergavenny 34 4 10-2 Brian Ellison46 135 159 162 14 F4-213 Raya Star 21 5 10-1 Alan King53 134 162 167 15 1741-3 Act Of Kalanisi 42 5 10-1 Dr Richard Newland50 134 141 161 16 11F0-9 Ciceron 29 5 9-13 Venetia Williams25 132 143 162 17 13-3U4 Rigidity 28 4 9-13 Tim Vaughan50 132 148 163 18 3-7034 Tawaagg 41F 7 9-13 W P Mullins53 132 129 170 19 5-3216 First Avenue 14 6 9-4 Laura Mongan33 123 151 153 20 525-57 European Dream 14 8 9-1 Richard Guest 120 154 153 21 52/5-5 Action Impact 29 7 8-5 Gary Moore78 110 118 134 heres the weights aidymac

[TheRat]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Nothing worse... Im torn between 2 horses' date=' Sailors Warn and Third Intention... Im going to plough into one of them, but i have equal reasons to back both!! Decisions Decisions :\[/quote'] Why would you not back both? The two of them are prices

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Why would you not back both? The two of them are prices

I think ill back Sailors Warn e/w and have a saver on Third Intention! I wouldnt like to back them both heavy!! Looke like a very competitive race.. Prospect Wells just touched off by Steps To Freedom and improving, Marsh Warbeler won a Grade 1 and was 2nd to Grandouet lto.. Gibb River beat Strongbows Legend who hacked up couple days ago, Abergavenny was 3rd to Brampour and has a nice weight to work with, Sailors Warn won a Grade 2 on soft, 2nd to Unaccompanied in Grade 1, 6th to Zarkander where Unaccompanied, Grandouet and Brampour came out and won.. Desert Cry ran very well in Grade 2.. Third Intention 2nd in a Grade 2 and was only half a length behind Sailors Warn in that Zarkandar race and has a 2 pound pull in the weights with it now... Minefield :lol

[BKI Punter]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 So what's the need to go in heavy if you feel it's so competitive? just have two small bets, or none. ;)

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

So what's the need to go in heavy if you feel it's so competitive? just have two small bets' date=' or none. ;)[/quote'] Its in my nature to put a big bet on for the big races BKI, i just love it, the thrill of having a big bet in a competitive race, like Danedream @ 25/1, Kauto Star and Quantatitiveeasing, i seem to do well on the big occasion for some unknown reason, lady luck i reckon! :D I have decided on Sailors Warn, im confident! Sailors Warn e/w @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG :hope

[BKI Punter]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I do think Prospect Wells is on a good mark, but my doubts would be about the potentially testing conditions and the fact he's inexperienced over hurdles in a tougher race/larger field. His win over hurdles on debut was an uncompetitive maiden (16 runners) in which he wasn't really under pressure and sprinted away at the last. I'm not sure he'll be able to canter over rivals here and go away in soft ground. Nothing looks to stick out handicap wise, hard to make a case imo. I think I might have a saver on Gibb River (Desert Cry main bet, will handle conditions better than most), who does look as if a greater test of stamina will play into his hands. Don't think he's brilliantly handicapped off 144 tho, so we'll see. Be interesting to see who's onboard. actually, you'd have to say Raya Star is well treated off 134. Very low weight.

[beaker1]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 ladbrokes now go nrnb on this race now

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Im even more confident now with Sailors Warn as my big danger Third Intention has been withdrawn, so i had previously backed it @ 14/1 e/w, it is now best priced 10/1 and is 9/1 in places, i had another go e/w with Ladbrokes @ 10/1 , non-runner money back and best odds guaranteed! Only negative is there are only 17 runners remaining, 2 more withdrawals and we lose the 4 places! I think Prospect Wells is a crap price @ 7/2

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Im even more confident now with Sailors Warn as my big danger Third Intention has been withdrawn' date= so i had previously backed it @ 14/1 e/w, it is now best priced 10/1 and is 9/1 in places, i had another go e/w with Ladbrokes @ 10/1 , non-runner money back and best odds guaranteed! Only negative is there are only 17 runners remaining, 2 more withdrawals and we lose the 4 places! I think Prospect Wells is a crap price @ 7/2

Antepost isn't affected by NRs. You'll get the 4 places on the 14/1 even if 10 are withdrawn.

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Antepost isn't affected by NRs. You'll get the 4 places on the 14/1 even if 10 are withdrawn.

Really? :eek:eek:eek:eek:eek In that case, keep pulling them horses out! :cow Brampour will probably be withdrawn too, so more shrinkage to come! Now im beginning to see the value in Ante-post Mileni! You need to go and have a bet to figure out how good it can be :) As you said "value" is the key!

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Not sure about the 10/1 at Lads though. When it's nrnb there is R4, so that is probably like a normal daily market. Unsure about the places too. I think they will be altered if 15 run. The 14/1 is def no affected though, and no R4.

[stewartd14]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Not sure about the 10/1 at Lads though. When it's nrnb there is R4, so that is probably like a normal daily market. Unsure about the places too. I think they will be altered if 15 run. The 14/1 is def no affected though, and no R4.

Places will remain at the no. of places offered when the bet was struck. e.g. If you placed a bet now with 4 places, 4 places would still stand even if only 7 runners lined up. :ok

[Mirage]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Places will remain at the no. of places offered when the bet was struck. e.g. If you placed a bet now with 4 places, 4 places would still stand even if only 7 runners lined up. :ok

When does that change then? The day of the race? Not a punter who does ante-post often so was under the impression that once NRNB started you would get the places offered on the day.

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Jesus, it gets even better! AP McCoy gets the mount on Sailors Warn! :D

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Mightily impressed but Sprinter Sacre. Not sure anything will be able to cope with him in the Arkle. Only thing that can stop him are the fences, but he seems pretty clever when putting a short stride. I think he'll be the next 2 mile superstar.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 If I wasn't already on, I'd back Rubi Light for the Ryanair. Still value and will take a very good horse to beat him imo.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Think he'll find a couple too good, can't see him beating Noble Prince or GE if they go. QDLR confirmed today that we can safely say last season's novice chasers were atrocious. Master of the Hall should be alright on a flatter track but doesn't get home at Cheltenham and Jessie's Dream is promising but doesn't go through with any effort. Magnanimity another to let the RSA form down although he probably needed it. Gold Cup surely only concerns Kauto, Long Run and Grands Crus. Would still have doubts about Grands Crus staying. Synchronized won easily today and isn't going to be stopping at Cheltenham but I couldn't bring myself to back on what he beat today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Think he'll find a couple too good, can't see him beating Noble Prince or GE if they go. QDLR confirmed today that we can safely say last season's novice chasers were atrocious. Master of the Hall should be alright on a flatter track but doesn't get home at Cheltenham and Jessie's Dream is promising but doesn't go through with any effort. Magnanimity another to let the RSA form down although he probably needed it. Gold Cup surely only concerns Kauto, Long Run and Grands Crus. Would still have doubts about Grands Crus staying. Synchronized won easily today and isn't going to be stopping at Cheltenham but I couldn't bring myself to back on what he beat today.

Great Endeavour is a dark one, but could they be tempted by one final handicap bid? Big fan of Noble Prince on good ground 2m5f and I'll be backing, just not sure if I'll go as a proper bet or as a saver. It will depend on price. I think the best horse in the race is Riverside Theatre, who (if he gets there in one piece) and handles the track will be very tough to beat. Still not sure if he hated Chelt or just got outpaced in the Arkle 2 years ago. Will have to gamble on that, because he is better than all of them ability wise. Rubi has a big chance though. Has improved and 2m5f will suit his style. He just got outstayed today, but had all in trouble at one point. His jumping is so good, they might struggle to peg him back in the Ryanair. Those are the 4 that I will be interested in. Shame Master Minded isn't there to keep few of the prices up.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Totally forgot Riverside! Watched the 2010 festival the other day and Geraghty had given up turning for home and only jumping the second last got after him, just outpaced imo. Big player if he lines up for sure.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Also we need to wait and see if Captain Chris will drop back to 2 miles and go for the Queen Mum or have a tilt at the Ryanair, because he's a player at 2m5f too. Didn't really stay in Kinge George, but maybe they'll go for the Champion Chase now.