Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

[BKI Punter]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Quel Esprit will go close off his mark if he runs imo, we've definitely not seen the best of him over fences yet. GE is a danger to all back over this trip as well, I'd be very disappointed if he couldn't confirm form with QE even with the rise in weights.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

was hoping he wouldnt although pipe has them all fit' date=' just a shame he feels he needs to run it again at the track, its not as if Johnson needs the prize money unless there is a bonus i am not aware of i.e. 3 cheltenham wins in a season?[/quote'] The logic is to run now and give him break before the festival. Nothing much suitable for the horse before or after. I'm not surprised they are running him here. I am surprised they ran him in the Hennessy.

[DLL]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Like most of the graded handicaps nowadays the December Gold Cup has tended to go to a higher class of horse with the last 4 winners being rated 149,150,151 and 163. Focusing on those horses in this years renewal, firstly Woolcombe Folly has been a 2m horse thus far with only 1 run beyond 17f in a hurdles race. He's top rated on 165 yet this lofty rating appears to have been achieved through a couple of handicap wins and has come up short so far in graded chases bar a fairly weak grade 2 novice chase. His last run when 2nd to Gauvain was pretty disappointing but he's got the right profile for the winner and the extra 1/2 mile could be the key to him living up to his rating. Great Endeavour is 10lb higher than his Paddy Power win but looked to have something in hand after blundering the last fence and still finishing full of running. He ran a pleasing race in the Hennessey under a 4lb penalty his stamina just fading in the final furlong and a return to prominent tactics is sure to bring out improvement here. Cheltenham obviously suits the horse as his 3 highest RPR (bar the Hennessey LTO) have come at the course including a 2nd to Poquelin in the race last year. The drop back down to his favoured trip will suit and provided the last 2 races haven't left their mark on him he should go close. Medermit is another horse who has the profile of previous winners plus he's French bred and they have a particularly good record in this race (won 7 of the last 8). He found things happening a bit too quick in last years Arkle and was unable to jump as fluently as the others at pace so the 2m5f he faces here will probably suit him better. His 2 runs this year over shorter have been solid without being spectacular so Alan King will probably be hoping the extra distance brings out some improvement in him. A 9 year old hasn't won for 18 years so Roberto Goldback doesn't really appeal much added to the fact he's run below his mark in his last few runs bar when he unseated at Punchestown. I've always though Ghizao could be a great horse but he is prone to make the odd mistake like in last years Arkle. The worrying thing about his reappearance this season was that he looked scared of the fences, he was slowing up into them and not taking them in his stride which he would need to do if he was to win here. The horse was reported to have been intensively schooled over the summer yet showed no improvement but he has seemed to run a bit below par following a break in the past so maybe he could improve here, as long as he regains his confidence. I'msingingtheblues is an extremely reliable and solid horse but he is also 9 years old and thoroughly exposed over fences. A mark of 152 looks about the limit of his ability so I would struggle to see him winning here. Similarly to Ghizao, Quel Esprit has always looked a high class horse but is liable to make a mistake. The 2 of his 5 chase runs he has completed he has won but even so he probably would have been beaten in the other 3 had he stayed on his feet. That being said a mark of 148 probably leaves room for improvement, he's also French bred and has the profile of a winner. One plus is that he likes to lead his races and so will get a clear look at the fences amongst this big field but until he shows he can jump cleanly at speed I wouldn't give him any of my money. Looking outside of this ratings band I think the 2nd and 3rd in the Paddy Power Quantitativeeasing and Divers have an excellent chance. Respectively they're 9lb and 12lb better off with Great Endeavour than when running in the Paddy Power and both are lightly raced and unexposed over fences. I'd probably go with Divers of the 2 just because he's French Bred. I normally use trends in races like these to build a profile of the likely winner rather than choose the horse that fits all the trends, then study the form of the horses that fit most of them. The majority of the time the winner comes from this group (although it didn't in the Hennessey when Carruthers went against most of the trends :p) so I though I'd upload the file incase anyone wants to look, or cares. http://www.mediafire.com/?jb7fk9bxe59qb3c Ironically I've chosen to go with the 2 horses who fit all of the trends. :lol Divers @ 8/1 Bet365 Medermit @ 14/1 Bet365

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Sunnyhillboy has been backed as if AP will ride him and not Quantitativeasing. Interesting.

[wistful]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Mileni. I was about to post something similar. There appears to be some Quantitative Easing going on. He's out to 8/1. Of course Quantitative Easing can't be followed in the Eurozone. When followed wisely, Quantitative Easing can be a winner in the UK. And, at least for now, in Bulgaria. One other thing I've noticed. JP McManus is very good at controlling his own currency. ;)

[billvernon]

[mileni4uk]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Mileni. I was about to post something similar. There appears to be some Quantitative Easing going on. He's out to 8/1. Of course Quantitative Easing can't be followed in the Eurozone. When followed wisely, Quantitative Easing can be a winner in the UK. And, at least for now, in Bulgaria. One other thing I've noticed. JP McManus is very good at controlling his own currency. ;)

Barry Geraghty on Quant :beer

[Aidymac]

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I think it is important to look at Newbury and Sandown form aswell at Cheltenham form when looking at this race, as both them courses are similar to Cheltenham, as in Newbury is left-handed and attracts good horses and Sandown has a stiff finish. I have studied the race for hours, and i have come to the conclusion that i must agree with Mileni on Quantitativeeasing. There was another horse in there that i thought had a big chance, Roudoudou Ville, but the fact Victor Dartnall has only ever had 1 winner at Cheltenham put me off. Great Endeavour beat Quantitativeeasing by 7 lengths in the Paddy Power Gold Cup but Great Endeavour is now 10 pounds higher, and reading the articles on David Pipe's interviews, he does not seem to be overly-enthusiastic about its chances, with the pull in the weights and Barry Geraghty taking over from Andrew Tinkler, Quantatitiveeasing strikes me as a very good each way bet, and with McCoy now opting to ride Sunnyhillboy, the price on the Henderson charge should drift a bit in the market to a more attractive price. Woolcombe Folly has the dreaded top weight to overcome so i give that little chance! Roberto Goldback prefers soft/heavy ground and is prone to mistakes and on its only visit to Cheltenham it was tailed off. Ghizao has won at Newbury which is a plus, but has been well beat at its onlt attempt over 2m 5f, so has stamina to prove. Imsingingtheblues has never won at Newbury or Sandown and its only win at Cheltenham was over 2 miles, and has never won over 2m 5f. Divers must have a chance but the ground could be against it come the weekend, it needs good ground and it may just turn good to soft come race-time. A strike-rate of 4/31 is not too inspiring either at this level. Apart from that, i think Quantitativeeasing just has the measure of it on form. Roudoudou Ville was the horse that really interested me. It has won on a testing Sandown track last time out, winning well. It is versatile with regard the ground, is french-bred, is a 6 year old, unexposed and Victor Dartnall reckons it has a big big chance and has earned its place in the race. But when i looked at Dartnall's record at Cheltenham, 1/49 it put me off, also it is a big step up in class for the horse and it has never run at Cheltenham, but i do think this is the big danger. I scratched off Medermit, even though King is in good form. King does very poorly at Cheltenham and i would probably never back a King horse at this track unless i was convinced it was going to win. It has also never won at the track in 6 attempts So for me, i have to be on Quantativeeasing e/w @ 7/1 :hope

[DLL]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Medermit was the first horse i scratched off' date=' i am currently doing my research... Has never won at Cheltenham, has never won over 2m 5f, is now 3 pounds higher when lucky to win at Exeter and King may be in form, but he is notorious for doing absolutely brutal at Cheltenham, with 1 winner from his last 32 runners at the track... I could not back it personally[/quote'] I'm sure he beat Captain Chris over 2m5f at Sandown last year, plus although he's never won at the track he's finished 2nd twice and 3rd twice and has never seemed to run below form there. Also King's had 6 winners from 32 runners at this meeting in the last 5 years which is a better strike rate than most. Maybe he's not that well treated on form but he's had little opportunity to race over further so I'd be willing to take a chance that he could improve.

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

I'm sure he beat Captain Chris over 2m5f at Sandown last year, plus although he's never won at the track he's finished 2nd twice and 3rd twice and has never seemed to run below form there. Also King's had 6 winners from 32 runners at this meeting in the last 5 years which is a better strike rate than most. Maybe he's not that well treated on form but he's had little opportunity to race over further so I'd be willing to take a chance that he could improve.

Its all about opinions mate, my opinion is that it will struggle, but if you backed it each way, of course it could run into 3rd or 4th and that would still be a payout for you! I could be completely wrong of course, thats the beauty about sharing opinions. Best of luck mate!

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Graham Lee injured, so now Keith Mercer partners Divers! Thats a blow to its chances! Keith Mercer rode it once before and it was pulled-up!

[cpo]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I have already backed Divers. Not too fussed by the jockey change and looks as though the ground is going to be perfect for him.

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

I have already backed Divers. Not too fussed by the jockey change and looks as though the ground is going to be perfect for him.

Well if i had it backed, i would prefer to have Lee on board, as he knows the horse inside out! But of course, good chance for Mercer to step up to the plate! Best of luck CPO

[cpo]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Oh yeah no doubting Graham Lee would have been better, but like you said good chance for Keith Mercer to step up to the plate! :hope

[bowles10]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

I think it is important to look at Newbury and Sandown form aswell at Cheltenham form when looking at this race' date=' as both them courses are similar to Cheltenham, as in Newbury is left-handed and attracts good horses and Sandown has a stiff finish. :hope[/quote'] Aidy, Cheltenham is Cheltenham and i think its so difficult comparing with 2 flat tracks, Cheltenham is jump racing's Epsom compared to HAydock, both different I ignore all other form apart from Cheltenham and maybe just exeter.

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Aidy, Cheltenham is Cheltenham and i think its so difficult comparing with 2 flat tracks, Cheltenham is jump racing's Epsom compared to HAydock, both different I ignore all other form apart from Cheltenham and maybe just exeter.

I look at Newbury because the standard of the horses that run there are normally the big guns that end up in Cheltenham come March. It is a left-handed track, and although it is flatter the cream of the crop run there! Then i factor in Sandown where there is a tough stiff finish, which can tell you a bit about a horse... If a horse cant handle Sandown, it more than likely wont handle Cheltenham (even though sandown is right-handed, but all i look for is the finish).. Thats my own personal opinion and i stand by it until im convinced otherwise!

[mowgli77]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Been having a look at future races and backed Denman and Quito De La Roque for the Gold Cup on Betfair. Also going to take Captain Chris for the Gold Cup and the King George to small stakes and get some cash down tonight on Zarkandar for the Champion Hurdle. Currently 2nd fav at 10-1 behind Hurricane Fly but if that rival doesn't get to the festival I can see Zarkandar going off about 4-1 on the day. I also think the RSA could end up being one of the best races of the festival. :ok

[BKI Punter]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Graham Lee injured' date=' so now Keith Mercer partners Divers! Thats a blow to its chances! Keith Mercer rode it once before and it was pulled-up![/quote'] Nothing to do with jockey, all of Ferdy's horses were running terribly back then, as they do.

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 International Hurdle Tomorrow My Tissue Prices and will have the actual prices in brackets next to it: Brampour 11/4 - (5/1) Menorah 7/2 - (4/1) Overturn 7/2 - (4/1) Grandouet 4/1 - (3/1) Sanctuaire 10/1 - (20/1) Clerks Choice 14/1 - (14/1) Pittoni 14/1 - (10/1) Stormy Weather 200/1 - (200/1) The two Nicholls horses look the standout value to me in the race, but i dont think Sanctuaire can win the race, he may nick 3rd but will find it tough... All the value in my eyes is with Brampour @ 5/1 and i think its an e/w steal for me. Menorah is the biggest danger to Brampour i feel. Won the Supreme Novices Hurdle, is a Grade 1 winner, is 33% on the ground and 50% over the trip, Hobbs also claims he has been aiming Menorah at this race, the trainer is 12% at Cheltenham and jockey/trainer are 16%, Menorah is 75% at Cheltenham. Would be the biggest danger to Brampour in my opinion but did unseat last time out, although was in command. Won this race last year. Overturn is also a Grade 1 winner and won its last 3 races. Is 42% on the ground but 0% over the trip, trainer says Overturn will love the ground but is taking a chance as it was meant to be rested after its last race. On a negative McCain is 5% at Cheltenham and Maguire/McCain are 5% at Cheltenham. Overturn also 0% at the track. Will make a bold bid from the front but may just find 1 or 2 too good i feel. Brampour has won a Grade 3 but is in cracking form winning its last 2, and its turn of foot was very eye-catching last time out. Harry Derham keeps the ride, although the 7 pounds he will no longer have, but he has a top animal under him. Won its last 2 races, 40% on the ground and 50% over the trip, Nicholls is 15% at Cheltenham and Derham/Nicholls is 33% at the track. Brampour is 50% at the track. Big chance imo. Had a breathing operation in the summer and no reason why it cant win this race after winning 2 big handicaps. Clerks Choice has won a Class 2 race and was beaten at odds-on lto. Is currently with Oliver Sherwood as Mr Banks has had some personal troubles to deal with. Sherwood is very hopeful but i cant see it winning. 20% on the ground and 0% over the trip, trainer and jockey have poor strike-rates at Cheltenham, although the horse has won at the track, is 33%. I would have to oppose. Was 6th in the Champion Hurdle but too much to do in my opinion to win. Grandouet has won a Grade 1 and won its last race. Is 33% on the ground but has not won over the trip, but the trip should be no problem. Henderson does not sound over-jubilant about its chances, he suspects the horse is better on a flatter track and that we will learn a lot about the horse tomorrow. Henderson is 12% at the track and Geraghty/Henderson are 20% at the track. Grandouet unsuccessful from 2 attempts at Cheltenham. I think the price of 11/4 or 3/1 is poor value. Sanctuaire is a Grade 2 winner but was a well beaten 8th last time out. But is 66% on the ground and 33% over the trip. Nicholls is 15% at the track and Walsh/Nicholls are 24% at the track. Sanctuaire has won at Cheltenham before and is 33% here. I think 20/1 is too big for this horse with Ruby on board and i expect it to outrun those odds. Was behind Brampour last time out. Pittoni i dont give much of a chance to! Is a Grade 1 winner and was a good 3rd to Thousand Stars last time out, but has never won on good ground, never won over 2m 1f, Byrnes feels it has a chance , Byrnes is 2/22 at Cheltenham and the McCoy/Byrnes is 0/1. Pittoni well beat on its only run at Cheltenham. I would see Sanctuaire and Clerks Choice both having a better chance than this horse. The McCoy factor has brought in the price. Stormy Weather is 200/1 for a reason. My forecast is: 1st - Brampour 2nd - Menorah 3rd - Overturn Brampour E/W @ 5/1 Paddy Power BOG :hope

[BKI Punter]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 The more I watch Brampour in the Greatwood the more I worry about him beating Grandouet. He was one of the only ones to make an impact being held-up in the Greatwood, and went from almost last to first in not many strides. Maybe it's visually deceptive though, and it doesn't look a top class Greatwood. I think the fact that it was a handicap is factored into the price and that's why I can't back him at 5/1. Especially given Derham claimed weight in both handicaps, and there has to be a doubt about him being unable to claim here, lacks experience. If he wins, I wonder whether connections would have the bottle to keep Derham onboard for the Champion. Would make a great story if he won it.

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

The more I watch Brampour in the Greatwood the more I worry about him beating Grandouet. He was one of the only ones to make an impact being held-up in the Greatwood, and went from almost last to first in not many strides. Maybe it's visually deceptive though, and it doesn't look a top class Greatwood. I think the fact that it was a handicap is factored into the price and that's why I can't back him at 5/1. Especially given Derham claimed weight in both handicaps, and there has to be a doubt about him being unable to claim here, lacks experience. If he wins, I wonder whether connections would have the bottle to keep Derham onboard for the Champion. Would make a great story if he won it.

I think Brampour has a massive chance BKI, and with getting the money back if he finishes 3rd, i think it is a great e/w bet in a small field. Has a great turn of foot, i think Menorah has a huge chance too, but there was just that touch of something special when i saw that turn of foot Brampour has last time out, as you said he came from last to first in a matter of strides! The 7 pound claim may be an issue but i dont see it will make much of a difference and in a small field like this, Derham had a much stiffer ride last time out and was magnificent, in this field he will have more space and time! Good luck whatever you back BKI

[BKI Punter]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I've backed Grandouet each way, mate. I think the Greatwood would've been an easier race to ride in in terms of getting tactics right. It's a big field, lots of cover, strongly run. Here we only have one certain pace-setter. It'll be interesting.

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

I've backed Grandouet each way' date=' mate. I think the Greatwood would've been an easier race to ride in in terms of getting tactics right. It's a big field, lots of cover, strongly run. Here we only have one certain pace-setter. It'll be interesting.[/quote'] Fair point BKI. What price did you manage to get Grandouet at mate? I think 11/4 is too short now and i was reading a few articles about Henderson, he said it would prefer a flatter track, but on form again it would have to have a solid chance... I cant see Pittoni coming anywhere near good enough, Clerks Choice or Sanctuaire arent good enough, so will be a battle amongst Menorah, Overturn, Brampour and Grandouet, hence why i feel Brampour is an e/w bet to nothing... Did Hendersons comments worry you in any way?

[billvernon]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 DENMAN Retired :(

[BKI Punter]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 To be honest, not really read much from Henderson re Grandouet. Trainers don't know what a horse can do until they do it, and unfortunately Cheltenham hasn't shown Grandouet in his best light but it doesn't put me off. He was left in front way too soon in the Triumph, and was clear of the rest behind Sam Winner. He was given an easy ride too, because of what happened at Wetherby. I bet they just wanted him to settle and get round. I'm convinced he would be 1111 with a bit of luck (brought down and took off too soon at Winc), and if he was, he'd be 2/1. This race always usually throws up a Champion Hurdle contender, the likes of Binocular/Rooster Booster/Menorah/Khyber Kim/Valiramix/Harchibald, that's what puts me off Menorah and Overturn. I don't see them as potential Champion Hurdlers this season at all. Favourites have a fantastic record also. Pittoni on form should be 33/1. Clerk's Choice is the interesting outsider. He needs a strong pace (no pace in this race last year) and ran his best ever race in the CH. He's still a young horse and horses that ran well in the CH usually come back next year and better that...Menorah fits that bill but what puts me off about him is the decision to cancel novice chasing after his unseating. If they'd have come straight into this season with hurdling intentions, 4/1 would've looked huge about Menorah, but I don't like the way they've gone and it puts me off. For me the top four will be Grandouet/Brampour/Clerk's Choice/Menorah with the last three in any order hopefully. I don't think Overturn is suited to the track. Edit: 3/1, mate.

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Its Menorahs course form that makes me feel it has a big chance.. Is 3 wins from 4 at Cheltenham and Hobbs said this race has been its target.. Is a fascinating race , and improvment may come from Clerks Choice now trained by Sherwood, i think Overturn wont be able to lead from start to finish up that hill, as a matter of fact i think it is a sitting duck for the late finishers and will guarantee a good pace, which should suit Brampour

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Sunday 2:05 My tissue prices and the actual prices next to it in brackets: Joncol 15/8 - (11/4) Tranquil Sea 11/4 - (7/2) Rubi Light 5/1 - (5/2) Cooldine 8/1 - (14/1) Kempes 10/1 - (7/1) Trafford Lad 16/1 - (50/1) Roi Du Mee 25/1 - (18/1) I am surprised to see Rubi Light as favourite, i had it as a 5/1 shot, i think Joncol's odds are very attractive @ 11/4... The value in the race in my eyes comes from Joncol, Cooldine and Trafford Lad but i firmly believe Joncol has a big chance to win the race. Cooldine might have a better chance than people think. Is a Grade 1 winner, was a well-beat 2nd last time out behind Joncol but travelled very well, Mullins was bemused as to why it came to a sudden stop and may improve Sunday. Is 57% on soft ground, 67% over 2m 4f, Willie Mullins is 21% at Punchestown and Walsh/Mullins combination is 34%, although the horse is 0/4 at the track, however i think it will outrun its 14/1 price. But i dont feel it will win. Is a former RSA winner and 5th in Cheltenham Gold Cup, but has to prove himself. Joncol has a big chance. Is a Grade 1 winner, won well last time out, is 43% on soft going and is a whopping 100% over 2m 4f, trainer Paul Nolan is very confident and expects a win, Paul Nolan is 11% at the track and Carberry/Nolan combination are 20% at the track, Joncol also has a 67% record at Punchestown. Big chance! Has the beating of Cooldine. Kempes is a Grade 1 winner but was a disappointing 3rd lto. Is 33% on soft ground, 33% over 2m 4f, Mullins is 21% at the track and Casey/Mullins combination are 15% at the track, horse is 33% at the track... I dont think Kempes will win, pulled up on its last Grade 1. Roi Du Mee has won a Grade 2 and will struggle in this company i feel. Was 2nd last time out behind Kauto Stone, is 43% on soft going and 17% over 2m 4f but Gordon Elliott is only 7% at the track and Nina Carberry/Elliott combo are 0%. Roi Du Mee is 67% at the track though. I would have to oppose! Out of its depth. Rubi Light, i dont understand why it is favourite, even if it would have beat Sizing Europe! It was a pipe-opener for SE. Has won a Grade 2, was a poor 3rd lto, is 0% on the soft going, is 33% over 2m 4f, Hennessey is only a miserable 4% at the track and Lynch/Hennessey is 0% at the track, the horse is 50% at the track and the trainer is bullish about its chances, but at 9/4 or 5/2, i think its worth avoiding! Was 3rd to Albertas Run in the Ryanair, but has work to do to beat Joncol.. Trafford Lad should not win, but at the same time should not be 50/1. This horse is a Grade 1 winner, and although was well beat last time out and the trainer and jockey combo have a 0% SR at the track, the horse is 22% on soft going and 33% over 2m 4f, but does really well at the track, has a 75% win strike-rate at Punchestown so may outrun them big odds of 50/1 and might be worth a back to lay on betfair. Has a lot to prove though! Tranquil Sea is the biggest threat to Joncol. Grade 1 winner that is in scintillating form having won last time out. Is 50% on soft going and a whopping 78% over 2m 4f, having won 7 from 9 over the trip. Is 20% at the track, Eddie O Grady is 9% at the track and Geraghty/O Grady combo is 22%, also find it interesting that Geraghty is booked and not McNamara, the trainer believes the horse has a great chance also. Showed its class at Clonmel last time out! I fancy Joncol to win and i think 11/4 is a great price as i would have taken 15/8 or 2/1... Tranquil Sea should give it most to do whilst Trafford Lad should outrun those big odds! My prediction: 1st - Joncol 2nd - Tranquil Sea 3rd - Trafford Lad Joncol WIN @ 11/4 Hills BOG :hope

[BKI Punter]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Do you weigh up your tissue simply based on stats about going/courses/trainers/jockeys rather than your own opinion? Just out of interest. by the way rubi light wasn't a poor third lto, he unseated and was remounted :D

[Aidymac]

Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Do you weigh up your tissue simply based on stats about going/courses/trainers/jockeys rather than your own opinion? Just out of interest. by the way rubi light wasn't a poor third lto, he unseated and was remounted :D

I factor these things in, but i like to read articles on the trainers opinions on their chances, and also i think its important if the horse likes the ground and the track, also watch videos on sportinglife, and then out of gut feeling i pick which horse i feel has the best chance and has the best value! Its a mix of my own opinion and stats, i dont think you can use stats solely as that wouldnt work! Not saying this will work either as im only at it a couple of days :lol As for Rubi Light, it was a poor 3rd as it fell and was remounted, would have beat Sizing Europe if it didnt fall , but has never won on soft ground, the trainer does rubbish at the track too, so im trying to factor in many things before i make a decision! I could be doing it arse-ways but im trying to learn from the mistakes i make, which im sure there will be plenty :D