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mowgli77

Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Thought connections would have been delighted by that myself, need to watch the race back but I thought he was in with every chance over the last and jumped really well. Don't think he will be able to make his mark against Long Run in the King George and he will need to wait for the good ground in the spring, like you say, Punchestown could be on the agenda, but there is life in those old legs yet
I don't want to be all negative about everything, but I'm just talking as I see it. I think this Hennessy is proper bad form. Fair Along jumped off 1st, dropped away to last after 2 fences and then stayed on to almost catch winner and POS. That lets the form very very badly for me. And Carruthers winning as well, it's just a bad Hennessy for me. The way they all bunched up jumping the 3rd last, just something wasn't quite right with this race at all :) POS ran well, but might be flattered. Probably ran to his 158 mark and not more. A mark he'd struggle against fair few in Graded company. Time will tell.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Thought I'd have a look at the King George....I'll probably go for something else as well closer to the race - but thought I'd take a flyer on one....!! King George: Kauto Stone 1pt win 89/1 Betfair & 1pt e/w 33/1 Sportingbet (1/4 123) After looking again at the replay for the Betfair and watching the Hennessy yesterday, you have to wonder whether there might be a shock in this mid season highlight. Starting with those at the head of the betting; Long Run, he was not fully wound up for his season debut, and reportedly had schooling sessions leading up to the race. They did not seem to have worked as although he stuck to his guns, his jumping was far from foot perfect. Kauto Star was magnificent, and its hard to knock him, yet the reaction from all his connections gave the impression that Haydock was the day. That performance could take its toll and even though there is another month to recuperate, he may do well to pull off a similar performance. It looks as though Master Minded has been trained for the King George, however there must be a doubt he can see this trip out. Captain Chris becomes interesting and looked unlucky at Exeter, however although he stayed on strongly over two miles at Cheltenham he has to prove he gets the trip and will need a confidence booster somewhere. Wishful Thinking seemed to run (or was ridden) in a strange way in the Paddy Power and like several of his rivals has to prove his stamina. Somersby is a game sort, but leaves the impression of being just short of very top class. Its probably too soon to write off Weird Al and Diamond Harry for the very top races but they don't appeal at the prices. Which leads the eye to Kauto Stone. First the bad news; his price is drifting all the time on Betfair, and he is entered in the two and a half mile John Durkan on the 11th December, however if there was to be surprise in the King George, Kauto Stone could be the most likely. Although very young Kauto Stone has won a Grade One chase in France over 2 miles and six furlongs on heavy going, and was very impressive at Down Royal. It probably is a step too far too soon, but significantly Kauto Stone is in different ownership to his half brother and Master Minded, there must be a temptation to run. If Kauto Stone did line up, he would surely be less than half his current price at the most.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

but significantly Kauto Stone is in different ownership to his half brother and Master Minded' date=' there must be a temptation to run. If Kauto Stone did line up, he would surely be less than half his current price at the most.[/quote'] not through lack of trying from what i heard ;) Good luck, this is deffo one horse for the future, was impressed by it 1st time up

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 As De Fer just won very nicely at Ffos Las, and although he'll obviously go up a fair bit in the handicap for a 16 length victory, surely the 50/1 on offer with Stan James for the Welsh National is well, wrong? He'll love the likely ground and looks to stay all day, definitely a lively contender at a price. Welsh National: As De Fer; 1pt EW @ 50/1 Stan James

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

As De Fer just won very nicely at Ffos Las, and although he'll obviously go up a fair bit in the handicap for a 16 length victory, surely the 50/1 on offer with Stan James for the Welsh National is well, wrong? He'll love the likely ground and looks to stay all day, definitely a lively contender at a price. Welsh National: As De Fer; 1pt EW @ 50/1 Stan James
Doesn't he go with a penalty actually? Absolutely hacked up!

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Doesn't he go with a penalty actually? Absolutely hacked up!
I thought that at soon as I posted it, but not entirely sure. Think you're right though, which makes the 50/1 even sillier! Can't see them keeping that price for long.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

I thought that at soon as I posted it' date=' but not entirely sure. Think you're right though, which makes the 50/1 even sillier! Can't see them keeping that price for long.[/quote'] Need to check this, because if it is a penalty even the 25/1 is silly.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Had a bit of 25s. Very impressive performance on this ground I must stay. Might be an ask for such an inexperienced horse, but backing well handicapped horses is a good strategy in general, so worth a shot :)

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Had a bit of 25s. Very impressive performance on this ground I must stay. Might be an ask for such an inexperienced horse, but backing well handicapped horses is a good strategy in general, so worth a shot :)
Definitely, the 50's was a good bet whatever really, he's definitely up to winning a race like the Welsh National, whether he's battle-hardened enough to do so in 2011 is another story but we will see. Bit annoyed I didn't back him today, as had fancied him a few weeks ago but he got backed off the boards at about 8pm the night before and then was a non-runner. Oh well. Good luck :ok

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Tingle Creek Tataniano 2pt EW - 9/2 (PP, 3 places) Sizing Europe 2pt - 5/2 (Lads) Can see Finian's being the drifter here, and Tataniano coming in. He's overpriced, won a handicap lto off 160 without coming off the bridle. Doesn't have to dominate from the outset as shown at Aintree, almost all principles here want the lead or thereabouts. I think with three places he's too big though, especially with Nicholls' record in the race, having won every renewal since 2005. Sizing has to be a saver at the price, form over two miles is the best on offer, expected him to be about 13/8.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Doesn't he go with a penalty actually? Absolutely hacked up!
Interestingly from 2001-10 (not sure about last years) 11 horses carried a penalty and 8 of them finished in the first 4, but it is difficult to win a national as a 5 year old.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Interestingly from 2001-10 (not sure about last years) 11 horses carried a penalty and 8 of them finished in the first 4' date=' but it is difficult to win a national as a 5 year old.[/quote'] How many have run though? I checked the last 10 years. One ran in 2006 and L'Aventure in 2004 finished 4th. 6yo won it in 2005 and 2006.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

How many have run though? I checked the last 10 years. One ran in 2006 and L'Aventure in 2004 finished 4th. 6yo won it in 2005 and 2006.
Yeah I only 3 have ran (1 placed) but I always think its down to the individual horse isn't it, although the penalty stat is very encouraging.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Yeah I only 3 have ran (1 placed) but I always think its down to the individual horse isn't it' date=' although the penalty stat is very encouraging.[/quote'] Absolutely. Always down to the individual horse. You are right, Nationals are attritional and you need a real battler, so maybe it's very tough to win with a young novice. However I'm a great believer that the well handicapped ones always come to the fore more often than not, so I don't like to overcomplicate things. If you can spot well handicapped horses in general regardless of the race type, the rest is pretty much irrelevant, because the odds are always in your favour.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 been thinking about a few early Cheltenham bets and mine are always based on horses that placed the year before in the normal races that produce winners at the festival Champion Hurdle Will be the usual hype around the irish favourite and this year both Nichols and Henderson will be out to beat it. Nicholls doesnt train the winner of this race but Henderson does and Grandouet could be the one at around 14/1 presently Arkle Presently looks between Peddlars Cross and Al Ferof both ran well at last years festival and both will be shorter on the day than the 9/2 & 7/1 they are presently if they reamin unbeaten. Champion Chase Might be worth siding with the Arkle winner Captain Chris here but it didnt jump well at Exeter however I would hope Hobbs knows what to do next with the horse and it will come to Cheltenham with a chance. Kauto Stone is the one we dont know much about as Nicholls could go either way with this horse and i think it all depends on what Master minded does in the King George to be honest RSA Chase Looks a very difficult race to pick the winner of but Grand Crus could be something special and connections have to decide whether to go this route or not contemplating some form of doubles and trebles perming the above with Grand Crus also.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Agree with Grandouet Bowles, if he wins the Bula he'll be second fav. I really want to be against Grands Crus this year. Gave big Buck's a race in World Hurdle, but it was slowly run, such a bunch in behind. Was easily beaten at Aintree, Won in the Dark 7l back isn't inspiring. Has jumped well and not done much wrong, but I don't like the way he was challenged all the way up the straight by firstly, a horse that made mistakes, and secondly, a horse that's so lightly raced and having seasonal debut. He can only win obviously, but I think there are enough doubts about taking the 5/1 for the RSA. It's a grueling race and I don't think it'll suit him. On the other hand, there doesn't look to be a star amongst the opposition, and Bob's Worth is too short atm. I think it's a pretty horrible antepost market.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Agree with Grandouet Bowles, if he wins the Bula he'll be second fav. I really want to be against Grands Crus this year. Gave big Buck's a race in World Hurdle, but it was slowly run, such a bunch in behind. Was easily beaten at Aintree, Won in the Dark 7l back isn't inspiring. Has jumped well and not done much wrong, but I don't like the way he was challenged all the way up the straight by firstly, a horse that made mistakes, and secondly, a horse that's so lightly raced and having seasonal debut. He can only win obviously, but I think there are enough doubts about taking the 5/1 for the RSA. It's a grueling race and I don't think it'll suit him. On the other hand, there doesn't look to be a star amongst the opposition, and Bob's Worth is too short atm. I think it's a pretty horrible antepost market.
after posting i started ti have a rethink and thought it best to shove a bit on Grandouet as a straight win bet at 14/1 with Bet365. It is a definite for the race and should rival Zarkandar this year again although Nicholls horse came out on top twice last season, i feel Grandouet does have the scope to improve greatly 0.5pts win Grandouet - Champion Hurdle 14/1 Bet365

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Second in a CH that according to Walsh was slowly run, Arkle will never be too quick for him. :) Also takes a fair bit of stamina to win (captain chris, my way de solzen, tidal bay). Won't back at the prices though, not too keen on backing novice chase ante-post with three options open.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Champion Chase Might be worth siding with the Arkle winner Captain Chris here but it didnt jump well at Exeter however I would hope Hobbs knows what to do next with the horse and it will come to Cheltenham with a chance. Kauto Stone is the one we dont know much about as Nicholls could go either way with this horse and i think it all depends on what Master minded does in the King George to be honest
Captain Chris will surely go King George and probably Gold Cup from there? Can't see Champion Chase being on the agenda at all.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 It will all ride on how Captain Chris does in the King George - I think it will be Long Run that will win - I then think they will look at the Ryanair or the Champion Chase - I hope he goes for the Champion Chase as Arkle winners do well in the race the next year if they run in it. I seriously think he was unlucky in his last race and he was not as fresh as he could be as he needed stoking up - idled / outpaced ? in the middle of the race .. but boy did he start moving towards the end of the race.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Re the Welsh National, the handicapper has given Syncronised a chance by handing him 11-6 again it seems. I guess you'd think Nicholls will keep top-weight Neptune Collonges in to keep weight off The Minack and Niche Market. Connections have said Syncronised may swerve the race if he was forced to carry top-weight. From a value perspective he doesn't interest me at 5/1 anyway, where there are less exposed types lurking further down the weights. Wymott, for example, has a lovely racing weight of 10-9 and looks interesting for McCain at 14/1. The ground would have been against him in the Hennessy and he had a bit to prove racing in a big, competitive field for the first time. He ended up 6th but it looked a poor renewal and probably not form to dwell on too much. The Welsh National is usually a mudbath though isn't it, which will be ideal for him. I guess he lacks the big race experience of some but he's certainly one of the more interestingly handicapped. As De Fer is as short as 12/1 now Lars, so you've got a nice price there. The one that interests me at this early stage most of all though is Western Charmer. The reason I haven't backed is that he is 46.0 on BF whereas only 16/1 with firms, so may have other plans, but he looks very well handicapped based on his novice form with Quito De La Roque (who I think could emerge as a Gold Cup contender) and RSA winner Bostons Angel. He caught a tartar in the Irish National but ran well in second and I always respect Dessie Hughes with this marathon stayer types. Would just like to see some confirmation of plans before parting with cash. This is what Hughes said on him and Vic Venturi on Setanta

Dessie Hughes may run both Western Charmer and Vic Venturi in the Coral Welsh National at Chepstow on December 27. Both have been entered in the handicap chase, though the Curragh-based trainer will not rule out running them closer to home either. Neither stayer has run since the Punchestown Festival in early May, but Hughes says they are close to being ready. He was quoted by Sky Sports as saying: "We'll leave it open. They are good stayers, both of them, so we've put them in there. "They may go somewhere else over Christmas, if not they could go there (Chepstow). "Both are in good form and getting ready to run."

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 West End Rocker just won the Becher chase there and hats off to him. However, the one to take from the race is arguably the second, Niche Market, who was ridden 'tenderly' by Harry Skelton. In the National last year he was more aggressive and raced prominently. Today he was ridden further off the pace - which didn't seem as strong as it was predicted to be on paper. Gradually runner by runner fell away and instead of just getting him some more experience of the fences and giving him a nice ride into a place to try protect his mark, he's jumped the fences and travelled so well he ended up second. Instead of trying to bustle up West End Rocker he was quite content to take second and try avoid a rise. Well handicapped, two good rounds over those fences now, the only doubt is whether he will truly get 4m4f. at 33/1 its worth a little investment to find out.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 decent chase at Cheltenham at the weekend to get our teeth into will post up some detail soon...... Poquelin won it last 2 years for Nicholls

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I have had a look at the race and I think Divers has a big chance if the ground remains good. Possibly unsuited by the ground last time out but still ran a cracker. He fits every strong trend for the race such as being French bred, 1-3 runs this season, 6-14 chase starts, no more than 2 handicap chase wins, being a 7 year old, finished in the first 3 last time out and is a 2nd season chaser.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 My early thoughts are that Medermit looks overpriced at 14/1, very versatile horse up to at least 2m 4f, so needs to stay another furlong but was 2nd here in a novice chase over this distance on new years day and record at the course is 233724 in its 6 course runs to date. Divers is 9/1 and for me the horses are closely matched. I would still be surprised if Great endeavour runs in this after 2 testing runs in the last 3 weeks. Quantativeasing ran well enough behind Great Endeavour in the Paddy Power to be amongst the favourites for this race and there is the form with Divers from the festival last year also

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Pipe said Great Endeavour runs.
was hoping he wouldnt although pipe has them all fit, just a shame he feels he needs to run it again at the track, its not as if Johnson needs the prize money unless there is a bonus i am not aware of i.e. 3 cheltenham wins in a season?

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