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mowgli77

Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 My only issue with Aiteen Thirtythree is that his victories have come in small field novices races when he's been able to make all. The same can be said for Wymott. I think you have to give them respect, given their unexposed profiles, but personally I'd want 10/1 to back either them or Wayward Prince and Ive missed the boat now by only looking at the race post-decs. Want to be against Great Endeavour because of the longer trip. Think he might get 3m at a push but this is likely to be run at a good clip and every yard of the longer trip will get some getting. I like Carruthers, who is a likeable sort and well handicapped these days. He showed up well before fading at Cheltenham on his comeback and looks a big price at 20/1, however, I can see him running a big race and fading again. Ground too soft for the classy Joncol who failed to declare and with Neptune Collonges carrying such a big weight its come down to two for me - Michel Le Bon and Planet of Sound. Michel Le Bon was a classy novice and has been off the track for ages. I'd be tempted at a double figure price but at 8/1 I don't think the fragility is fully factored in (fact he's Nicholls trained probably explains why) so Planet of Sound gets my vote. This ground will be perfect for him and he's gone well fresh before. He's very classy when fit, as he showed at Punchestown '10. True, he was stuffed in the King George last time, but reportedy choked, and this is his first run since undergoing a breathing operation. He is a Grade 1 winner over 3m1f on good ground yet gets into this race on 158, getting 10lb from topweight Neptune Collonges. That is a really nice racing weight, infact it is only 6lb more than Aiteen Thirtythree and 8lb more than Wayward Prince, and he's a Grade 1 chaser that was being aimed at the Gold Cup last year. Obviously not the safest of bets given the long layoff, but if looking for one thats overpriced I certainly feel he merits consideration at 12/1 as he seems to love this track too.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

why? based on? Its obvious Nicholls would possibly have the fav in the race and the bookies run a bit scared of the champion tainer aka Mon PArain the other week, although that was poor value in a race 5yo'sdont win, yet 1833 could win this and i'm happy with the 6/1 i got last night
Because he hasn't proved anything so far. No world beater over hurdles, was pulled up in his only real test as a chaser. Was left clear both wins over fences. He may well win but I won't be getting involved at a short price, that's for sure.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 3 for me 1833 - Looks to have been plotted up for the race and has only ever finished out of the places 1 time where he was too bad to be true at Cheltenham. He comes here after a good prep at kempton behind Somersby and must go close if getting around. Planet of Sound - Goes well fresh and has had a breathing op after a very disappointing effort at Kempton where he stopped very quickly. If the breathing op has sorted out this problem then he must have a great chance. He loves it around Newbury and should go well. I do like Wayward Prince as well. There are quite a few in this race that like to race at handily so it could be ran at a decent gallop which would hopefully suit Wayward prince as it would turn into a proper stamina test. Ian Williams seems pretty bullish about his chances and he did have another 2 winners today so the stable are in good form.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Given that most of us tend to get get things wrong over a period of time I'll put up joncol' date=' lightly raced due to ground ( injury concerns) if he travels I don't think it will be for the holiday[/quote'] still lightly raced, its not running mate!

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

1833 looks hideously underpriced. In fact' date=' I was shocked to hear he was favourite a few days back.[/quote'] This is Paul Nicholls were talking about, the best national hunt trainer of our era, who lives off races like this, he is a big day trainer, doesnt matter what horse he has in a race, it must be feared! Also see nothing wrong with 1833 being favourite, has either been 1st or 2nd on 7 of its 9 runs, won a Grade 2 by 17 lengths even if he was left in front, then beat Tarablaze by 50 lengths and even if Glenwood Knight didnt fall he wouldnt have troubled him and losing to Somersby is nothing to be ashamed of, Somersby is a top class animal! Then you have to factor in the Ruby/Nicholls combination , 11/2 to me seems a fair enough price.. Dont know what im going to back yet, it will be the night before the race!

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

This is Paul Nicholls were talking about, the best national hunt trainer of our era, who lives off races like this, he is a big day trainer, doesnt matter what horse he has in a race, it must be feared! Also see nothing wrong with 1833 being favourite, has either been 1st or 2nd on 7 of its 9 runs, won a Grade 2 by 17 lengths even if he was left in front, then beat Tarablaze by 50 lengths and even if Glenwood Knight didnt fall he wouldnt have troubled him and losing to Somersby is nothing to be ashamed of, Somersby is a top class animal! Then you have to factor in the Ruby/Nicholls combination , 11/2 to me seems a fair enough price.. Dont know what im going to back yet, it will be the night before the race!
We'll see but I personally can't see him winning.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Over hurdles 1833 wasn't even quick enough to beat Adams Island or Be There in Five over three miles, and they need trips. Beats Supercede a length, receiving weight over just short of three miles two. Chaser or not, this can hardly be considered the makings of a top class chaser. Won two small field races over Voramar Two, a horrible jumper, and Tarablaze who didn't jump well at all. How on earth did the handicapper decide that warranted a rating, of, wait for it, 159?! :loon Disgrace. Ruby didn't even side with it in the RSA despite Nicholl's confidence. If it somehow wins the Hennessy all I'll have to do is say fairplay, but nothing it's showed so far tells me it's a Hennessy winner in waiting, or ready to beat a mark of 152.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

surprised at this comment Mileni' date=' never raced beyond 21f?? so what basis can this go well? Too many on this thread seem to be covering horses with no real back up[/quote'] A horse doesn't need to be proven over a trip to back it. In fact I prefer him not to be. I can always take a chance at the price. Shame Hugh tipped. I was wondering why he's being backed today. 40/1 looked huge. The reason why I'd want to be on this horse is very simple - he is well handicapped. He will always be, because the rider he has on his back is a 14lb penalty. Treadwell never sees a stride and the horse always makes mistakes and suffers from it. The moment they put someone decent on him, he'll bolt up. Might be ruined by then though. Great Endeavour would've won Spinal Research handicap at the festival if he wasn't given that ridiculous ride by Timmy. Missed the start and lost 20L. Rushed him up to take lead, horse was keen all the way. Then kicked too soon and even when he fell I wasn't entirely sure he was beaten. I think he could've had a say in the finish. He'll stay, the problem is he was buzzed up 2 weeks ago and might bounce. Looking how many times he's raced in his career, he seems best fresh. Probably not coming out of his races well and needs more time to recover. I think Pipe said the same after he won at the festival 2010. He said he is done for the season and will go straight to Paddy Power, because he doesn't take that much racing.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 great endeavours trainer doubts him staying extra 6 furlongs of the race, plus if you take into account his form over fences away from cheltenham reads 1446 and that winning race came at towcester in a 4 runner race at towcester and he was odds on,so really cant see him winning the hennessy

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Not an ante post bet but on the subject still of the Hennessy, i personally now think i may be worth covering an exact across 3 horses Aiteen Thirty Three, Wayward Prince and Planet of Sound My trends cover all 3 of these and although i plumped for only WP and 1833, i now feel PoS has a decent chance of being amongst them at the end if the breathing op has worked etc. this will be 6 bets for the combination but at odds of around 5/1, 8/1 and 12/1, the worst case it would pay around £40-£50 to a £1 unit (£6 Bet) Beshabar is the one i keep looking at although the horse is proven over further and no doubt will be a NAtional horse come the spring.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Beshabar I hadn't even considered. I have him in my 10 to follow, but it was merely as a marathon chaser with a look at the national. Would be a huge bonus were he to win. Don't think he will, though. Still...he stays and jumps well. Prominent racer... I think the interesting one is Sarando. This isn't the best of renewals, and he's done well over fences. Bit of a character, but since the tongue-tie and cheekpieces have been used together, has settled down a bit. Won his 2nd chase by 12l before going down narrowly to Fruity O'Rooney despite being on and off the bridle and jumping quite novicey. He didn't have the cheekpieces on that day also. Shaped like a dour stayer and that was over shorter. That winner is a solid 135 horse or so and Webber's horse is comfortably better now in my opinion. His 2nd to Quito De La Roque at Aintree is a great piece of form even if the form of the race looks mixed, and won his last chase well by 11l (and blundered 2nd last), giving 4lbs to a 140 rated hurdler. That was right handed around Carlisle and he looks like he's better suited going the other way so that's another advantage. His jumping is a bit inconsistent in the sense that he's capable of a spectacular leap and also a blunder, but on the whole is safe enough. This test should suit him down to the ground, and he likes to race prominently. Just think he's got the right traits for this and at 14/1 with Ladbrokes looks a fair each-way bet.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Actually TFR deserves a chance at Cheltenham. He might have bounced. Although he's lost weight and was apparently fitter at Haydock it can't be trusted they had him 100% 2 weeks after Charlie Hall. Webber is not Nicholls or Pipe. A month off to freshen up and it will be interesting what he does nto.
I did wonder about having a 25/1 or so ante-post bet for the Gold Cup merely because he's going for a graduation chase next. Presumably he'll be well fancied for the race, so his price might shorten should be win it well. I have hopes he'll bounce back up the Cheltenham hill to provide a memorable victory, but it may be worth accepting he's not quite good enough. Like I've always said, the one thing that keeps him in the picture is 3m2f at Cheltenham.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I just spent an hour typing analysis for about half the field and then accidently closed clicked off the page :@ :wall :lol So I guess you'll just have to imagine my amazing pontificating because I'm not doing it again. :lol I'll just do the ones I fancy: Wymott is a horse I like a lot but he took little interest last time out at Cheltenham and that run can probably be ignored. His form besides this is very good including a win over Wayward Prince off level weights over hurdles and he seems feasibly weighted on 144. The last 6 winners of the Hennessy have raced prominently which is how Wymott's likes to run his races and he's never had problem running to form after a break. Plenty of recent Hennessy winners have been proper stayers and Beshabar is definitely cut from this cloth. He won the Scottish National in April (like past winner Gingembre) and although he would have been beaten by Wayward Prince when receiving 5lbs at Cheltenham had he not been brought down, this is a completely different proposition. He also likes to race from the front and isn't affected by running after a break. Aiteen Thirtythree seems a worthy favourite for this as he meets all of the trends but as plenty of people on here have said his form is a little thin. He couldn't have been more impressive in his first 2 starts over fences but his run at Cheltenham worries me slightly. He was taken on for the lead by Elysian Rock and ruined his chances which could happen again here with plenty of horses wanting to be up with the pace. He seemed to weaken very tamely which could bring his stamina into question in a true run race but on the other hand he is by Old Vic which should mean he'll stay. His last run was just a pipe opener and can be ignored. Despite this I feel he is a top class chaser who just hasn't had a chance to prove it. Also one outsider that I thought could have a shout is Muirhead although Paul Carberry's catatonic riding style would probably put me off backing him to win, maybe in a different race. Interestingly it seems as though Great Endeavor has been backed into favourite so it seems his trainers reservations aren't putting people off, good for us though as other runners are being pushed out. Aiteen Thirtythree @ 7/1 Bet365 Wymott @ 8/1 Bet365 Beshabar @ 14/1 William Hill

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Great Endeavour didn't run badly considering it was only 2 weeks after the Paddy Power. Shaped so well to hit the front almost and then didn't stay. Freshened up and back at his favourite Cheltenahm, he is surely going to run in the Ryanair? You would argue if the trip was 2m5f, he would've won today. Ryanair always not that strong a race and he could get involved in March. 16/1 isn't a bad price.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Makes sense yeah, 2m5f is an awkward trip for most but he thrives on it. Planet of sound ran a great race and will be a force this year but happy for connections of carruthers, he looked great value at 20s earlier in the week considering his handicap mark. I thought he might weaken close home but fair play, some performance.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 yep endeavour for Cheltenham deffo, did run well today as Murphy was able to keep him out of trouble and it had a nice run up the inside to get into contention at that point i thought it would win but it didnt quite stay Beshabar is also an interesting horse for this season albeit exposed now after a decent 5th place today but over further, can be a major threat I still believe its a track that suits those front rank as Carruthers showed Wayward Prince jumped so poorly to be true, i couldnt believe how bad that one jumped from the 1st fence

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Carruthers has ran in the last 2 gold cups though and was 4th 2 years ago still only 8yo also, overlooked it personally but could see why it had a decent chance now

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Yeh, last few Hennessy winners have all been prominent and with GE ridden to get the trip, probably a better run than it looked. Have taken a little bit of the 20 on Betfair for the Ryanair. Race is wide open, Albertas might not even make it and he can easily give the usual players a race over a trip he's probably best over.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Yeh, last few Hennessy winners have all been prominent and with GreatE ridden to get the trip, probably a better run than it looked. Have taken a little bit of the 20 on Betfair for the Ryanair. Race is wide open, Albertas might not even make it and he can easily give the usual players a race over a trip he's probably best over.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Makes sense yeah' date=' 2m5f is an awkward trip for most but he thrives on it. Planet of sound ran a great race and will be a force this year but happy for connections of carruthers, he looked great value at 20s earlier in the week considering his handicap mark. I thought he might weaken close home but fair play, some performance.[/quote'] You think so? POS ran well, but probably just not quite top class. Can definitely be found a race or two though. Breathing op has worked. That Grade 1 at Punchestown in the spring on good ground he won 2 seasons ago, that could be his for the taking considering the Gold Cup horses will be over the top and the Joncol's and Cooldine's are always worth taking on.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I think the race has been won by front runners by coincidence. What A Friend joined Denman 2 season ago, but because he is a dog in a finish, he threw it away. Then today Great Endeavour joined Carruthers and would've won, but didn't stay. You can't discount those coming from off the pace. It's about who's best handicapped, it's just a fluke they aren't winning :D

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Carruthers has ran in the last 2 gold cups though and was 4th 2 years ago still only 8yo also, overlooked it personally but could see why it had a decent chance now

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Yeah Carruthers was obviously well handicapped on his form in 2010 and most of horses to win this down the years have been proper stayers which he definitely is. I probably still wouldn't have backed him though as it usually goes to a lightly raced chaser. That being said last years crop of novice staying chasers have been very underwhelming this year with only Quito De La Roque coming out and winning a proper graded race so this obviously wasn't the best renewal but it didn't make it any less competitive. While I'm here what does everyone fancy for the Troytown tomorrow (not really ante post I know but what the hell). It looks very competitive but the last 10 winners have all been 10/1 or less and only Notre Pere carried more than 10-7 to victory and he went on to win the Welsh National and the Punchestown Gold Cup. I really fancy Wicklow Lad who improved bundles last season and has had a couple of spins over hurdles (possibly to protect his mark) most recently a good 2nd to the well handicapped Harold's Cross. He's also got the very capable Adrian Heskin on his back who takes off a useful 5lbs and was on him last time he ran over fences in a C&D win. I wouldn't write off Jack the Bus either who has a great course record 3-1-4-2-1. Only 2 previous winners have tried to follow up in the race, one of them won and the other finished 3rd so I wouldn't dismiss him despite not running since his win last year.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 As it goes I've had to make a pick in the Troytown for a comp I'm in...............went for Tharawaat ! I think he's got a touch of class, is a CD winner, goes on the ground and has won in big fields.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Beshabar is also an interesting horse for this season albeit exposed now after a decent 5th place today but over further, can be a major threat
Agree, they couldnt have hoped for a better pipeopener. A few runs over hurdles now to sharpen him up in the New Year and then all systems go for Aintree when good ground returns?

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

You think so? POS ran well' date=' but probably just not quite top class. Can definitely be found a race or two though. Breathing op has worked. That Grade 1 at Punchestown in the spring on good ground he won 2 seasons ago, that could be his for the taking considering the Gold Cup horses will be over the top and the Joncol's and Cooldine's are always worth taking on.[/quote'] Thought connections would have been delighted by that myself, need to watch the race back but I thought he was in with every chance over the last and jumped really well. Don't think he will be able to make his mark against Long Run in the King George and he will need to wait for the good ground in the spring, like you say, Punchestown could be on the agenda, but there is life in those old legs yet

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