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mowgli77

Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I backed Captain Chris last night and then it gets pulled out of the race today, not sure if it was NRNB, gutted if I lose my stake and don't even get a run for my money. I quite fancied So Young too and that's now out of the Morgiana hurdle on Sunday. :(

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

I wouldnt be so quick to rule out Kauto Star for this race! I personally think odds-on for Long Run is ridiculous, no doubting it is now the best horse in the race if all run to their potential, but its his first run of the year at the weekend and there surely has to be some fitness doubts? He was largely fancied to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase last year, it was his first run of the year and he finished 3rd behing Little Josh so for me i would certainly not be going in here at odds of 4/5 on Long Run. Diamond Harry has run in November twice before and won both races but was found to be lame recently and also has fitness doubts. Also Harry has failed to win on his last 2 visits to Cheltenham. My fancy is Kauto Star who will love the ground, Ruby has chosen to ride Kauto over Master Minded, Nicholls is adamant that the horse is bouncing at home, and even though its now an old horse, i feel with the form Nicholls is in and the fitness doubts of Long Run , with such a small field and at this time of year, Kauto @ 8/1 to me looks rather big!
KING KAUTO IS BACK!!! :notworthy Happy days and what a price! :beer

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Yes, well done Aidy with Kauto :clap and what a reception .... Having an early look at the Hennessey ....I see that Ladbrokes have shortened up overnight, must be the weight of my money :lol ...!! Still plenty of 16s about ..... Saturday 3:10 Newbury: Sarando 1pt e/w 16/1 Ladbrokes Sarando looks a tough sort who should be able to hold his own in this Grade 3 handicap. He has some good form to his name and his trainer looks to have done everything to get him ready, with a run on the flat and an outing at Carlisle. Looking through Sarando's form his run at Aintree when just going down to Quito De La Roque looks good form and he showed fine battling qualities under pressure. Quito De La Roque has only suffered one defeat over fences and that was by Bostons Angel who won the RSA. Quito De La Roque has since franked the form. Sarando has proved his well being this season with a comfortable victory at Carlisle and looks a fair each way price.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Hennessy Gold Cup The Giant Bolster 1.5pt EW - 20/1 (PP, four places) Planet of Sound 1pt win - 14/1 (PP) Michel Le Bon 1pt win - 8/1 (Bet365) Great Endeavour 0.5pt win - 7/1 (Bet365) I think the Nicholls fav is well worth taking on, he'll struggle imo off 158, though whenever I pick one out to oppose, it usually wins! We never got to see whether the perseverance with The Giant Bolster's jumping paid off as he unseated at the first in the PP Gold Cup, but I thought the trip was on the short side as it was. Now, over three miles he's worth a decent bet. Very well handicapped off 146 imo and was always a big fan of him last year. Planet of Sound hasn't been seen since the King George, but goes alright fresh and is definitely better than 158. He gets three miles and has won three times from four visits to the course, finishing second the other time. Michel Le Bon is worth a bet, though I've missed the good prices, Nicholls thinks a lot of the horse and he's probably well handicapped with only one easy chase win to his name and being incredibly lightly raced. He can get these horses to the track from long lay offs as we've seen in the past. GE was impressive at Cheltenham and is still pretty unexposed at the trip so has to be worth a saver, not to mention the form Pipe's in.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Hennessy Gold Cup The Giant Bolster 1.5pt EW - 20/1 (PP, four places) Planet of Sound 1pt win - 14/1 (PP) Michel Le Bon 1pt win - 8/1 (Bet365) Great Endeavour 0.5pt win - 7/1 (Bet365) I think the Nicholls fav is well worth taking on, he'll struggle imo off 158, though whenever I pick one out to oppose, it usually wins! We never got to see whether the perseverance with The Giant Bolster's jumping paid off as he unseated at the first in the PP Gold Cup, but I thought the trip was on the short side as it was. Now, over three miles he's worth a decent bet. Very well handicapped off 146 imo and was always a big fan of him last year. Planet of Sound hasn't been seen since the King George, but goes alright fresh and is definitely better than 158. He gets three miles and has won three times from four visits to the course, finishing second the other time. Michel Le Bon is worth a bet, though I've missed the good prices, Nicholls thinks a lot of the horse and he's probably well handicapped with only one easy chase win to his name and being incredibly lightly raced. He can get these horses to the track from long lay offs as we've seen in the past. GE was impressive at Cheltenham and is still pretty unexposed at the trip so has to be worth a saver, not to mention the form Pipe's in.
Planet of Sound had a breathing op over the summer. :ok

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 On our discussion form last week, it wasn't Nacarat absence that saw Rupert run so badly, I shouldn't have changed my mind on him after last year. He will never be a Grade 1 chaser. Hurdler yes, but chaser no way. As soon as the going gets tough, he falters. He can't sustain 3m gallop and jumping the way Kauto, Denman and Long Run do it. Got him terribly wrong. He will run better in 3m2f Cheltenham race, but will never be top class over fences imo.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

On our discussion form last week, it wasn't Nacarat absence that saw Rupert run so badly, I shouldn't have changed my mind on him after last year. He will never be a Grade 1 chaser. Hurdler yes, but chaser no way. As soon as the going gets tough, he falters. He can't sustain 3m gallop and jumping the way Kauto, Denman and Long Run do it. Got him terribly wrong. He will run better in 3m2f Cheltenham race, but will never be top class over fences imo.
I still haven't seen the full race yet, been on PS3 and watching films but I want to see how TFR got on. I wasn't sure last year before Cheltenham, ended up putting TFR as a "banker" in one of those select a stable competitions but had nagging doubts about it. For it to finish as close as it did with a broken blood vessel seemed a good effort but as I said before the race "no more excuses" after the weekend. I thought Kauto was gone and I wasn't the only one. Of course you get all the after eventers on Facebook and Twitter claiming they backed Kauto, knew it wasn't finished blah blah blah yet they never posted anything before the race. I left Kauto and Denman out this year and the one I left out that I might regret is Master Minded. The 2 I am really unsure of that I had in my 10 to follow last year and left out this time are Weird Al and Planet Of Sound, both look to have potential but I'm not convinced they are top class Grade 1 horses at all. It's good to have a strong opinion (even if it's not always right) and I could never understand why people put Barbers Shop in their TTF each year, overrated donkey. You could do well opposing TFR if you are convinced it's not a top class chaser. Someone I know laid Overturn on Saturday and also laid Kauto for a place, ouch. :(

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I don't really know why he ran so badly. He's not a bad horse on his own. His Cheltenham novice win against Chicago Gray was good and Chicago probably ran to his 150 mark, he always does. If I was in Paul Webber's place, I'd run him at Cheltenham at any opportunity. The horse loves it there and is probably stone better on the track. Those flat tracks don't suit him at all. He needs stiff 3m+ on galloping courses. I have one ultimate rule for novice chasers. If they spend a 2nd year going for the championship hurdle race, I avoid them as novice chasers. That's why I'll be against Peddlers (although I'll probably save stake on him, because he has so much class) and Menorah. Al Ferof and Sprinter Sacre all the way for the Arkle.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I never thought he would go for the Arkle anyway, but Pipe just said it's unlikely. Seen a few say they thought he was going for the race so thought it was worth a mention

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

I don't really know why he ran so badly. He's not a bad horse on his own. His Cheltenham novice win against Chicago Gray was good and Chicago probably ran to his 150 mark, he always does. If I was in Paul Webber's place, I'd run him at Cheltenham at any opportunity. The horse loves it there and is probably stone better on the track. Those flat tracks don't suit him at all. He needs stiff 3m+ on galloping courses. I have one ultimate rule for novice chasers. If they spend a 2nd year going for the championship hurdle race, I avoid them as novice chasers. That's why I'll be against Peddlers (although I'll probably save stake on him, because he has so much class) and Menorah. Al Ferof and Sprinter Sacre all the way for the Arkle.
Mileni. I presume the trends back you up on avoiding novice chasers that spend a second season going for the championship hurdle race? Assuming that is the case, why do you think this is so? Is it that it reflects the connections don't really think they have a chasing star, so persevere longer with hurdling to get a championship prize? Or does the longer time spent hurdling in some way prevent them progressing to the highest level over fences?

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Mileni. I presume the trends back you up on avoiding novice chasers that spend a second season going for the championship hurdle race? Assuming that is the case, why do you think this is so? Is it that it reflects the connections don't really think they have a chasing star, so persevere longer with hurdling to get a championship prize? Or does the longer time spent hurdling in some way prevent them progressing to the highest level over fences?
Not checked any trends, it's just how I see it. When you spend more time hurdling, you've had too many battles and too many scars. By the time you go chasing you're over the top. Doesn't work every time, but I'm sure you'd do well avoiding those horses. Celestial Halo, Medermit? Why did they waste a year to go champion hurdle? That's why they are average chasers. One of them didn't even stay over fences.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Not checked any trends, it's just how I see it. When you spend more time hurdling, you've had too many battles and too many scars. By the time you go chasing you're over the top. Doesn't work every time, but I'm sure you'd do well avoiding those horses. Celestial Halo, Medermit? Why did they waste a year to go champion hurdle? That's why they are average chasers. One of them didn't even stay over fences.
Makes sense. Thanks.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

Oooops' date=' Grands Crus[/quote'] This year's most stupid question award went to Rishi 2 weeks ago, when he asked Tom Scu if Grands Crus can go for the Arkle. Loved the way Scu almsot laughed, but remained serious and answered "he has the speed I think he can win over 2m, but it wouldn't suit him" :D

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Actually TFR deserves a chance at Cheltenham. He might have bounced. Although he's lost weight and was apparently fitter at Haydock it can't be trusted they had him 100% 2 weeks after Charlie Hall. Webber is not Nicholls or Pipe. A month off to freshen up and it will be interesting what he does nto.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Very impressed by Sonofvic today. Thought he'd drop away from Grand Crus after blundering the cross fence, but he went with him right until the line. Viking Blond ran to his usual form of 140 and the 1,2 are obviously 160+ horses. I wouldn't expect Sonofvic to beat Grands Crus off level weights, but he was probably only 80% today and there's so much more to come. Considering there's a possibility Pipe to go Gold Cup with Grands Crus, I think the 20/1 on Sonofvic for RSA is huge value.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 guys, there is a serious over reaction to Great Endeavour now into 13/2 for the Hennessy, firstly not many horses even attempt the Gold cup double of PP and Hennessy being only 2 weeks apart and secondly, this is over another 5f on a gruelling flat track. GE loves Cheltenham the same cannot be said for Newbury Aiteen Thirtythree at 11/2 only 1pt shorter than GE but proven on track and distance. I know where my money is going on this one. 1833 is also the trend horse alonhg with Wayward Prince so i m backing both anyway. Thoughts on the above?

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I've never really taken to Aiteen Thirtythree and think he's a woeful price for the big race. Won two chases, but he did that by just getting round. The opponents either fell, or blundered. Pulled up in the RSA, think something was wrong with his shins. His second behind Somersby is probably deceiving as it was basically a two horse race, and Somersby just did enough. He wasn't even a 140 hurdler. Off 152 he doesn't look well handicapped to me, I'd be massively surprised if he was a 160+ horse in waiting.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 I think Wymott, Wayward and 1833 are all slow one paced gallopers, I don't really see them winning (back the tricast). TGB and POS are my main bets, just want TGB to get a clear round.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 If TGB is to get a clear round it's around here. Newbury despite the tall fences is not as demanding as Cheltenham. Horses get into a rhythm easily and even if they do mistakes, they get away with it. Looks like the rain missed the track, so Wymott might be up against it. Great Endeavour is well in, but he's best fresh. Might not be 100%. Wymott, Ainteen and Wayward Prince are all 4 milers for me. Hence my selection of Michel Le Bon, who is probably Grade 1 horse. The problem is he is too inexperienced and this might be too soon in his career. Ruby not choosing him also a big worry, but he usually rides for Barber, so hopefully he didn't choose horse, but owner instead. Paul Nicholls usually not to be relied upon with his comments, but he seems a lot more excited about MLB than 1833 in all his interviews.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 A horse at a price that might go well is Tullamore Dew, but with that inept jockey he has on his back, he's virtually unbackable. How Liam Treadwell won a National I'd never know, he's so poor.

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 i dont think anyone actualy answered my question regarding Great Endeavour getting the trip at Newbury I will try to answer some the points raised though AiteenThirtythree can stay out of trouble by being front rank much like Denman has done so when winning this. The horse jumps well and is 2 from 2 here albeit in small fields. Ignore the Kempton 2nd behind Somersby, it was a pipe opener that the horse needed prior to saturday, it was over 20f, the shortest distance the horse has ran over since its 2nd start! So for me, that was just a get-fit race but again no disgrace to get beaten by Somersby but please dont use that as a form line! I backed the horse in the RSA but it was never going well enough for me and enough was enough and Ruby rightly pulled it up. Plusses are that previous winners of this race are all PROVEN stayers, that is a must, the newbury straight sorts the men from the boys and the race will not be won by a hold up horse. pLanet of sound is an interesting one with its prevuious form and grade 1 success at Punchestown. If it is back to form has to go well but at 9yo is now getting on a bit and faces a stiff test giving weight to younger rivals. so many of these will not get home and good luck to those on The Giant Bolster (you will need it, it falls too often for my liking!)

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

1833 looks hideously underpriced. In fact' date=' I was shocked to hear he was favourite a few days back.[/quote'] why? based on? Its obvious Nicholls would possibly have the fav in the race and the bookies run a bit scared of the champion tainer aka Mon PArain the other week, although that was poor value in a race 5yo'sdont win, yet 1833 could win this and i'm happy with the 6/1 i got last night

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Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012

A horse at a price that might go well is Tullamore Dew, but with that inept jockey he has on his back, he's virtually unbackable. How Liam Treadwell won a National I'd never know, he's so poor.
surprised at this comment Mileni, never raced beyond 21f?? so what basis can this go well? Too many on this thread seem to be covering horses with no real back up

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