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Re: Tennis - The French Open

Sharapova vs Li Na Selection - Li Na 13/8 - Paddy Power Medium stakes

I don't know much about women's tennis admittedly but have been watching the women's draw unfold this tournament, so here's my confident take.... Li Na is on a 10 match unbeaten run, the girl's movement and groundstrokes have been immaculate and you could say she comprehensively beat the one of the best female player's on clay in Azerenka in the last match. She is up there with Schaivone in terms of defensive prowess and that is one thing a lot of Sharapova's previous opponents this tournament have been lacking. Radwanska was able to manipulate Maria around the court but could not withstand the onslaught to her return of serves, same with Petkovic, who I have to say has an incredibly weak serve, its all arm and no rotation. Li Na is a solid manipulator, she can defend and she can attack and she knows how to slide on clay, one thing I've never seen Sharapova do. People talk about Murray having an easy draw to reach the semi finals, what about Sharapova, my oh my .... Lucic? Garcia? Chan? Radwanska? and Petkovic? The most highly credible there you would say, would have to be Radwanska and she choked and gave in to Maria's clutch play. Li Na meanwhile has had Kvitova and Azerenka in the last two rounds and I had Azerenka down as one of the favourites after watching her in clay masters tournaments. Sharapova is also vulnerable to the odd double fault, she still isn't fully over her shoulder injury, the rehabilitation process since the operation you feel is drawing to a close but isn't quite there yet. Li Na has also won their last 2 recent outings on grass, which is Sharapova's far and away best surface, due to the speed of the ball off the court from the massive forehands and serves she hits. Jun 7 2010 Birmingham WTA Int'l (GBR) Grass, F (1)(WC)Li(11,4.15) d (2)Sharapova(17,4.35) 7-5 6-1 Jun 8 2009 Birmingham WTA Int'l (GBR) Grass, SF (4)Li(20,3.13) d Sharapova(73,4.01) 6-4 6-4 Yes, its true, indeed she did beat her here @ Roland Garros 6-4, 0-6, 6-4 but that was a while back and an extremely tight match, one in which she was beagled on and one in which you would believe she used her ever so trusty clutch play to come through. Her clutch won't save her this time against a much more improved and experienced Li Na.

WIN :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana
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Re: Tennis - The French Open

SportTennis
EventSharapova v Li
SelectionLi
Strength10/10
Date02/06/2011
Bookmaker/PriceSportingbet @ 2.81
ReasoningNeither are natural clay court players, but both getting through so far. Can't help but feel Li has shown the better form. Sharapova has had a pretty soft draw, and Petkovic was dreadful yesterday. Li on the other hand has stepped up in last few matches, and showing the grand slam form she had earlier this year in Australia. Li was superb yesterday against Azarenka and a similar performance should see her through. Weather forecast in for it to be windy today, which should surely cause Sharapova more problems on serve. I see this as a really close game, I'd have Li priced more like 2.20.
Ten double faults from Sharapova......you were spot on. ps And one would think that Schiavone will be considerably better equipped to deal with the wind - which is supposed to get even stronger - than Bartoli. Just taken her at 1.8, -2.5 games.
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Re: Tennis - The French Open

Maria Sharapova vs Na Li over 21.5 games 5/6 skybet set betting sharapova to win first set 7-5 12/1 skybet i think this will go all the way both are playing well and a chance to reach the final is very appealing
my first win i was quite confident as well
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Re: Tennis - The French Open

Bartoli vs Schaivone Selection - Schiavone 8/13 - Paddy Power Medium stakes

I just really don't get the hype behind this girl Bartoli, her serve is almost as bad as Petkovic's. If it wasn't for her amazing return of serve I don't know how she'd still be in this tournament. I can't see how Bartoli can contain the reigning French Open Champion's all court gave, her offence is pretty good but her defense is distinctly average. She also can't string a series of good points together, she's as eratic as Andy Murray has been this tournament. I feel Shciavone is a better clutch player, she plays the big points 10 times better than her opponent. A potential cover for this would be over 21.5 games, as there's no way Bartoli wins this in straights, oh and small stakes for the games.

WIN :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana
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Re: Tennis - The French Open Na Li - Schiavone picks Na Li Bookmaker Pinnacle stakes 4j You have to catch a hot rate while before the final because I will probably drop from 1.98 to 1.8 or even 1.7. What can I say Schiavone in the final? . Well deserved in my opinion. There was really no real test. She could have come off but the contestant retired Peng. As passed the 1 / 4 of Pavluchenkova I have no idea. At one point, losing 1:6, 1:4 then something in head of a young 19-year-old Russian is upset and gave himself snatch victory. In the semifinals, Bartoli, who does not know how to feel because I was really on clayu never played major roles. As for the ladder to the lower Na Li playing their fully deserved the final. What can I say favorite to replace a major victory before the final tournament of the railways Azarenka, Sharapova, Kvitova. All of these athletes on their way met Li dismissed on any of the rivals has left no shadow of hope. Virtuallyeverything points tothe benefit ofChinese women. Chinese woman is compressed to the major tournaments this year, belonging to the second tournament and second Slam final. In January, the AO Trium Clijsters taken away from her this time, I see the result as a victory Na Li. I will mention more about football. Already more than once talked about in the forum. The ball this year is much faster which is a dispute as an offensive asset for athletes as Na Li rolandgaross.jpg Uploaded with ImageShack.us

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Re: Tennis - The French Open Men's Semifinals: 1. Federer vs Djokovic My pick: Federer (+5.5) @ 4/6 with William Hill Reasoning: Both these players have been truly outstanding in this tournament. I had the privilege of watching Federer's last two matches and I definitely saw shades of the ''old'' Federer. He still has the ability to step it up a notch when he needs to. Can he do this against a player of Djokovic's ability? I think he can certainly run Djokovic close and even force a tie-breaker. Even a 7-6, 6-4, 6-4 loss will cover the handicap; I reckon though, Federer might win a set (or two!). Federer has lost to Djokovic this year and I think he might have a point to prove so he will try his best to keep this close. I was torn between playing the over 37.5 games market and the Fed handicap but I think the handicap is the safer option (as reflected in the price). My stakes for matches like these are normally 5% of my bankroll, I think forum members here refer to it in terms of points? 2. Nadal vs Murray My pick: Under 34.5 games In reality this is a pick for a straight sets Nadal victory. Nadal, as poor as he is playing in this tournament (by his own high standards) is still too much of an opponent for a supposedly injured, temperamental, moping Murray. I watched the Murray/Chela match and even against a lower quality opponent Murray made quite a meal of the first set. Nadal will absolutely slaughter Murray. Of course, I could always take Nadal to win 3-0 @ even with William Hill but again, I'm conservative and I'll allow Nadal to lose a set 4-6 as I feel he won't allow more than 8 games in each of his winning sets. My stake, 5 points. Good luck all.

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Re: Tennis - The French Open I'm getting involved in both semis tomorrow, both of which potentially could be crackers. Rafael Nadal vs Andy Murray- Nadal -6.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10) Feel this will be the less closer semi and have a feeling Nadal is peaking just at the right time and will be too much for Muzza unfortunately. Rafa's game has improved as the week has gone on. He looked extremely out of sorts against Isner and in particular Andujar, but his win over Soderling is the kind of performance we are used to from Nadal on clay. His forehand was working a treat and Soderling really didn't have any answers as you could see Nadal grow in confidence as the match progressed. Murray as much as I want to see a Brit win a grand slam, he hasn't impressed me particularly at any point over the past couple of weeks. He was fortunate that Berrer didn't have a clue how to play against an essentially one legged tennis player and that Troicki choked massively when serving for the match. I'm not worried over his fitness despite his ankle niggle and his epic in the previous round, but I do fear that given Rafa's performance against Soderling, he will be a step too far for Murray and in the end I see him coming through this quite comfortably and reaching the final in a tournament which may as well be called the Rafa slam. Roger Federer vs Novak Djokovic- Federer +5.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (4/10) This is the semi I really can't wait for though and I'm backing the greatest tennis player to match the 2011 champ all the way here. I've watched alot of Federer this week and he has that passion in his game that I haven't seen for a while but when he plays like this, no matter what kind of form you're in, you will be caused problems. He's yet to drop a set this week, and in truth been very comfortable in all of his matches and has yet to be really asked many questions in the previous rounds. We all know what kind of golden patch Djokovic is in, with nobody really being able to match him this year perhaps with the exception of Nadal and also Murray back in Rome a few weeks back. Like Federer, he hasn't had to worry in any of his matches. Even against Del Porto where he dropped a set, you always felt he would have too much in that one for Juan Martin. Despite him having that extra couple of days rest due to Fognini's withdrawal, Roger will also be pumped to go in this one after his defeats to Djokovic this year. He's in better shape and playing better tennis now than he has been going into his previous matches with Djokovic this year and that's why this could be a classic in the making. Roger will want revenge and to show people that he's still one of the very best, whilst Djokovic has his sights on this amazing unbeaten record that he's almost beaten. I'm fancying there to be momentum swings in this one in parts, whilst at other times a very tight and nervy affair. This could well go all the way, but regardless of the final result, I'm backing Federer to at the very least take a set and keep Djokovic within reach for the majority.

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Re: Tennis - The French Open

SportTennis
EventNadal v Murray
SelectionNadal -2.5 sets
Strength10/10
Date03/06/2011
Bookmaker/PriceWilliam Hill @ 2.00
ReasoningIt's hard to see past Nadal today, and it's hard to see Murray getting a set. Nadals performance was much better against Soderlings, and I'd expect him to improve again here. Murray has had some curious performances, clearly hampered by injury and mentally he seems very uptight. But he has placed very well at times, especially when behind in the score. He's been starting very slowly, and if he does similar against Nadal it'll be hard for him to get into the match. I see this being a good match, and Murray having some good moments, but it will be hard for him to take a set and I see Nadal getting through 3-0.
SportTennis
EventDjokovic v Federer
SelectionFederer +5.5 games
Strength10/10
Date03/06/2011
Bookmaker/PriceSkybet @ 1.80
ReasoningThis is the one everybody is waiting for! I think it's a tough spot for Djokovic, considering he hasn't played since Sunday. He's also got the pressure of continuing the streak and getting to world number 1 - something he might struggle with. Federer has looked very good so far, and should relish this match against Djokovic, pretty much with the pressure off. I see Federer starting very well, and the hot conditions forecast may cause Djokovic problems in parts of this match. 5.5 is a decent amount of games, and Federer should cover it.
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Re: Tennis - The French Open

Sport Tennis
Event Rafa vs. Murray
Selection Rafa (-7) GH (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 03/06/2011
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.22
Reasoning Well, these two players will play for the first time here at French Open. Andy Murray still have the ankle injury opened and that could affect him today as game after game this problem could be more serious. Rafael Nadal didn"t started too well this year his best tournament French open, but after his game against Robin Soderling he has showed that he is back in action as he has played much much better than in his first games. Well, speaking about the difference in style between thesee two players because IMO certain this is the most important aspect here, I just have to mentionate that Murray do not possess any dangerous quality against Rafa, Andy is a player who can defend very well, but when it comes to attack he is nothing else than just a medium player. On clay, Andy will alaways have very few chances against Rafa as the spaniard is the best defender in the world and only by being stable from the baseline you just can not have some real chances against a player like Rafa. All in all, Rafa has some very clear advantages in style against Andy, so he should be all in control for this game. Good Luck!
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Re: Tennis - The French Open

SportTennis
EventLi v Schiavone
SelectionLi
Strength10/10
Date04/06/2011
Bookmaker/PriceLadbrokes @ 1.90
ReasoningI think this is Li's time. She has been excellent in the past two matches beating favourites Azarenka and Sharapova. She was also excellent in the Australian Open final against Clijsters, and nearly got the job done. She should have learned from that, and come into this well prepared. Shiavone has done an excellent job defending her title, and was also very good in her semi final. This should be a good final and is tough to call, but I think Li has an edge and the price is reasonable.
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Re: Tennis - The French Open Roger Federer vs Novak Djokovic over 37.5 games 4/6 skybet 1st serve percentage under 58.5 federer 5/6 skybet under 67.5 djokovic 10/11 skybet one player slowly back to his best and one who is unbeaten since the start of the year which i think will produce a great match also the conditions will not help the servers

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The amount of handicaps this week that have been bust by a single game is incredible. Clay is a tough surface to work out for us who like a dabble in the lines (handicaps that is, not coke). Unless the final coughs up something, I'll be waiting for the grass season to kick off before I play again.

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Re: Tennis - The French Open I simply have to take this one. (6/10) Na Li to beat F.Schiavone @ 1.87 with Pinnacle I cannot see past Li here. She had the tougher draw of the two and came through without any problems really (except for Kvitova perhaps). Schiavone pulled through thanks to her great clutch play, but Na Li is tough and she won't go down easily. I would set the odds around 1.60, so this is value.

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Re: Tennis - The French Open

I'm getting involved in both semis tomorrow, both of which potentially could be crackers. Rafael Nadal vs Andy Murray- Nadal -6.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10)- LOSS Roger Federer vs Novak Djokovic- Federer +5.5 handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (4/10)- WIN
Should have been 2/2 really with Nadal missing the handicap by a single game, where he should have had most of it covered from the first set. Glad Federer won though, good to see him playing this well again. -2.09 today, giving me a final standing of -1.45 as I'm not going near the final. Really disappointing end to a tournament in which I started so well in but quite glad the clay season is over as it's always an unpredictable surface to call. Bring on the grass I say. GL to all who have something in the final.
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Re: Tennis - The French Open

SportTennis
EventNadal v Federer
SelectionNadal
Strength10/10
Date05/06/2011
Bookmaker/PriceBoylesports @ 1.50
ReasoningExcellent performances from both in the semi finals. Federer seems to be close to his best, but still can't see him winning this final. We've seen it time and again on clay at Roland Garros and this match up works excellently for Nadal. Nadal seems primed for another title and should come through here. This is a stand out early line and will surely drop.
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Re: Tennis - The French Open Federer all the way for me. He is clearly playing better than rafa. U have to be nadals biggest fan to not agree. For fed to be so good so far on clay is amazing. Didnt see all the game v djo today but im thinking federer could finally have his chance to show nadal whos actually boss! Dont know tje odds or bet il do as i have like alot on fed to be winner so will have to look for something Maybe lay rafa 3-0 win again But come on the fed!

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Re: Tennis - The French Open The safest and most reliable high money bet would be over 3.5 sets in the Federer and Nadal match. lol Had I not invested in an Iphone 4 with my winnings, I almost definitily would have thrown a heap of money on over 3.5 sets. I best recommend that to anyone looking to bet big, Its an absolute cert, Federer's serve will keep him close enough to Nadal in atleast one set and enough so that'll he'll sneak a set. If Federer's the one on top well, you just know Nadal will have the will to win atleast 1 ... and who knows, it may even turn into a 5 set epic. Not making this bet but my recommendation.

Nadal vs Federer - Over 3.5 sets - 1/2 - RIDICULOUSLY HIGH STAKES - 10/10

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Re: Tennis - The French Open Schiavone beatS Li @2 Shiavone is the first claycourter Li faces at RG. No more hard court girls with clean, plain strokes but high balls, lots of top spin and this kind of clay tricks the chinese simply detests. She has never won a clay court event because of that, and was easily beaten by Francesca last year. I see a similar game than the one vs Bartoli. Although the chinese may oppose more resistence eventually Schiavone will win

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Re: Tennis - The French Open I must sound like a bit of an idiot for this after saying I wasn't touching the finals but Ladbrokes' final markets have interested me and I've ended up taking 2 for both the women today and men's final tomorrow. Let's hope I can end up with a profit for the slam. Will post the women first and then the men in a bit. Francesca Schiavone vs Na Li- Over 7.5 breaks of serve- 4/6 Ladbrokes- (5/10) Finals of the slam are the rare chances I get to bet on breaks of serve and in this one today I'd expect at least 8 breaks of serve regardless of the winner. We see so often in the women's game a lack of mental strength which leads to both players consistently breaking eachother. Clay is the surface where breaks of serve occur the most in both the men's and women's game due to the server not being able to put as much pace as they'd like on serve, put that together with the windy conditions that we've seen over the past few days, then serving could be an issue for both girls, especially as both are pretty good at punishing anything short on 2nd serve. Although I expect both players to be right up for this one, given the ocassion, there will presumably be some early jitters going about for both which hopefully can provide a few early breaks. Looking at both players' matches over the past couple of weeks, the 8 breaks of serve needed in this one has been covered 3 times by both players in their 6 matches, but some of these matches where straightforward quickish matches in Schiavone's case. I wouldn't fancy either of these two to run away with this one and it should tight for the most parts, and I'll back both players to get a read on eachother's serve and return well. Francesca Schiavone vs Na Li- Over 3.5 aces- Evens Ladbrokes- (3/10) Smaller stakes for me with this one but the price is too high for what the bet actually is. In the past rounds, combining both players' ace counts, they've covered at least 4 aces in 4 out of 6 rounds so not 100% sure why it's priced at evens. In Schiavone's 4th round and quarter final match, she hit 10 in total, she if she gets going today she could well cover the target on her own. Li's serve when she gets it right isn't the worst either and she usually chips in with an ace every match. Although I fancy there to be breaks of serve a plenty, there will be momentum switches and that can always bring about aces on serve. Despite the windy conditions, we saw Federer nail a ton of aces yesterday, showing that it isn't a possibility to hit them if the first serve is right. Both are capable of throwing in the occassional ace so I'll back the overs here which can hopefully squeeze through. Aces and breaks of serve galore in this one would be perfect.

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Re: Tennis - The French Open Sport Tennis Event Ciric - Sousa Selection Ciric - Sousa Strength 10/10 Date 04/06/2011 Bookmaker/Price 5Dimes @ 2.15 Reasoning In my opinion Ciric can win this match. Ciric is 14 positions above Sousa in ATP rank. Ciric is left hander with big serve, in this tournament beat three players with bettern ranking - Brands 2:0, Luczak 2:0 and Janowicz 2:1. In three matches concended only 3 serve games, in every match won over 70% points at the serve and made 43 aces! Sousa won against Buguirer(who?) 2:0, Ignatik 2:1 and Kamke 2:1. In any match not won 70% points at the serve, in first two under 60%. In three matches concended 10 serve games.. 3 aces and 7 double faults. Nikola!

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Re: Tennis - The French Open

I must sound like a bit of an idiot for this after saying I wasn't touching the finals but Ladbrokes' final markets have interested me and I've ended up taking 2 for both the women today and men's final tomorrow. Let's hope I can end up with a profit for the slam. Will post the women first and then the men in a bit. Francesca Schiavone vs Na Li- Over 7.5 breaks of serve- 4/6 Ladbrokes- (5/10)- LOSS Francesca Schiavone vs Na Li- Over 3.5 aces- Evens Ladbrokes- (3/10)- LOSS
Went wrong today. Both were essentially lost down to Schiavone getting completely outplayed. -9.45 for me now, all down to the men tomorrow to see if this is a decent end to the tournament, or an utterly miserable one overall.
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Re: Tennis - The French Open Tomorrow is D-Day for me then, and I'm desperately hoping for a good day to end on a high. If it goes wrong, well it goes really wrong. Rafael Nadal vs Roger Federer- Federer -5.5 aces handicap- 5/6 Ladbrokes- 10/10 First max bet for me in a long while but feel it's appropriate here. I remember taking this bet on last year at Wimbledon, when Rafa played Murray. On that ocassion I backed Nadal with the (+5.5) handicap, but despite beating Murray in 3, he failed to cover the handicap and I don't see him doing it tomorrow. Federer leads the aces chart for the tournament with 59 aces in his 6 matches. Nadal has only mustered 23 in total, playing one more set in total than Roger as well, so that's an average of around 6 more aces a match in Federer's favour which is what the handicap is. Federer has played some super tennis this week, and against Djokovic he was back to the Federer of old, serving a hugely impressive 18 aces, against one of the best returners in the game. Nadal isn't as good a returner on serve as Djokovic is so if Federer serves like he did then, this handicap should be well within reach. Nadal's serve isn't the quickest in the men's game, and he'll be relying on spin and angles from his serve, which won't see him serve a ton of aces by any stretch of the imagination. I reckon he'll serve around 5-6 tops, even if a match is a long one, and Federer should be serving a fair number of them if he wants to stand a chance in this one. Against Murray, Rafa managed 2 aces, and in his matches before that, 4,2,1,6,8. The match where he served 8 was against big John Isner who isn't anywhere near as good as return on serve as Federer. Roger in his matches has served 12,7,10,8,4 and then 18 aces against Novak. If he goes into the double figures this handicap should be covered and I'm happy to take a max bet on Roger serving well tomorrow, like he did in the semi against Djokovic. Rafael Nadal vs Roger Federer- Over 7.5 breaks of serve- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) This bet didn't work out in the women's final but I'm taking it again in a match which has the potential to be an absolute cracker. Hear there's thunder storms about tonight in Paris, and there is some talk about a potential disruption in the final tomorrow, which would be really unfortunate, but wouldn't allow either play to settle completely and the serve may be a bit disjointed for both. No matter if there is a disruption, I fancy both players to get a look at eachothers serve. Nadal will look to dominate Federer's second serve, whilst Rafa's serve isn't the best anyway, and he will look to dominate the rallies with his forehand, rather than play the shorter points. Interesting stat with Nadal's matches that every match excluding the first round against Isner, have had at least 8 breaks of serve in them. Even in 3 set wins for Rafa, there have been a considerable amount, and against Murray there were 9 in total, and if Murray wouldn't have blown so many break points, there would have been a few more. In the Federer Djokovic match, there were 8 in total, including a few in the opening service games of the match. Not convinced that either will win this in 3 tomorrow and it could go the distance, but either way there should be some cracking tennis on show, and I reckon both players will play some amazing shots in spurts, and I'll back the overs here.

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Re: Tennis - The French Open French Open Final - Federer vs Nadal - First set over 9.5 games - 8/13 - Medium stakes Paddy Power Most first set matches between these 2 have always been close if you look over the years. One determining factor for me is the way in which Federer is serving, I don't see Nadal getting near his serve for the first set, he'll need to get himself pumped up and get a feeling of how to read it well. If worse comes to worse Nadal will be the one thats broken, as long as he's not the one serving second, the over 9.5 handicap should be fine.

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Re: Tennis - The French Open Sport Tennis Event Rafael Nadal - Roger Federer Selection Nadal Strength 10/10 Date 05/06/2011 Bookmaker/Price Gamebookers @ 1.44 Reasoning Federer has been at the top of his game here at Roland Garros. He entered this tournament seeded no.3 and with all the attention focussed on Nadal and Djokovic he could build on his game. He didn't drop a single set till the semi-final as he defeated Lopez, Teixeira, Tipsarevic, Wawrinka and Monfils in straight sets while dropping a set to Djokovic. He is serving extremelly well, his baseline play looks pretty solid and his backhand is at a good level. Nadal started the tournament a bit awkward as he won 3-2 agaisnt John Isner. Nadal played poor, only raised his level in the last 2 sets. From there on he continued to raise the level of his game round by round. He didn't drop a single set as he defeated Andujar, Veic, Lubicic, Soderling and Murray. Djokovic made a lot of mistakes against Federer, and Nadal won't make the same gifts. Federer had ups and downs throughout this tournament and overall I don't think he has what it takes to beat Nadal here. He is still the king of clay.

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Re: Tennis - The French Open Nadal vs Federer, French Open Final My selection: I'm going against the trend and predicting under 38.5 games @ 11/10 with William Hill Reasoning: Over 38 games is a lot of games to cover and even if the match goes to four sets the over stands a chance of not hitting. Whilst a lot of punters are predicting an epic I think this could be over quickly if either player establishes a superiority in the opening set. I've been reading that there has been rain in Paris and if so this could play into Nadal's hands, slowing down the surface even more and allowing him to pound away from the baselines. My stake once again is 5 points. Good luck all!

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