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About goodens

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  1. Re: England > FA Cup > Replays > 6th March [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD]Football (England - Cups)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD]Birmingham - Chelsea[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD]Chelsea(-2.5)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD]5/10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD]06/03/2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD]Pinnacle Sports @ 5.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Going for a risky choice here. Fact is, Birmingham is missing most of its defenders from what I read. With Curtis Davis a doubt, Carr, David Murph and Caldwell certain to miss out, only Spector is left as a regular starter in the hosts defence. Actuall, in the first game it was all about defending from Birmingham, and Carr, as well as Murph were the full-backs. While Ibanez and Curtis partnered in the center of defence. Now, for sure Spector will step in. There is also the factor of games plaed this season, and surprisingly, Birmingham played more. Chelsea... they can't be any poorer than under AVB - that's all I'm thinking. With so many missings in the Birmingham defence, which I see more as a good team on the road, capable of defending well and scoring from few chances, but at home the struggle more, just like their 2 recent league games shown, losing to Nottingham 2-1 and 2-2 draw with Derby. I believe Chelsea to win by 3 goals here is doable, altough I know I am asking a lot, but fact is, if things go like we all expect, Chelsea getting a lead and at sometime doubling it, Birmingham will have nothing left to lose, and the guests will have more chances. Excellent moment for AVB to leave, and for Birmingham to have so many missings in defence... seems like destiny. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  2. Re: Netherlands - Eertste Division 2012 [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD]Football (Holland)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD]Telstar - Willem II[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD]Over 3 goals[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD]5/10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD]05/03/2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD]Canbet @ 1.93[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Telstar has been involed in a lot of high scoring games this season. The have a good attack, and often create chances to score even against the top teams. At the same time they are very vulnerable at the back, and allow quite a couple of goals. Willem II is fighting for promotion, they are one of the top teams in Eerste Divisie. They are in decent form, and just recentl hammered Emmen 6-0 at home. Earlier this season the game ended in a 3-2 win for Willem II at home. Telstar has 5 losses in a row, and the mood in their camp isn't great. Over 3 goals should be a safe choice. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  3. Re: Romania Liga 1 2011/12 [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD]Football (Romania)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD]Petrolul - Vaslui[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD]Vaslui[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD]8/10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD]04/03/2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD]Betsson @ 1.83[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD]Petrolul - Vaslui is the same kind of game as Steaua, with one difference. Vaslui isn't underpriced, odds are good at 1.90 . At the same time Vaslui has players in the middle capable of creating chances, but sometimes lack in defence. Some reinforcements in the winter were made to solve those problems, I don't like Straton as goalkeeper, but I don't expect him to have much to do here. Petrolul is at the same level as Dacia Mioveni. Poor players, but the pitch is also better than at Mioveni, and I see reasons to bet on Vaslui who is one of the best Romanian teams, like they've shown in Europe, and most importantly, they are one of the few Romanian clubs with players in midfield of a good level. Also Petrolul attacking more at home, and Vaslui on counters will definetly suit them, and a handicap bet on Vaslui with odds over 3.00 isn't a bad option. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD]Football (Romania)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD]Dacia Mioveni - Steaua[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD]Under 2.5 goals[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD]8/10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD]04/03/2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD]Pinnacle Sports @ 1.75[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD]Both games today are very unbalanced. While Steaua is priced at around 1.50 to win at Dacia Mioveni, the odds truely have no value in them as the pitch is awfull, Steaua can't create much even with a good pitch, and they will depend on high balls, and set pieces. Same thing happened away at Ceahlaul, and it ended up in a 1-0 win for Ceahlaul, in a poor game. I'm not betting on this game, because odds are poor for Steaua. But odds of 1.75 from Pinnacle on the Under 2.5 look decent. Also, Dacia Mioveni has small chances to score here... Steaua to keep a clean sheet is another option I'm thinking of, while correct scorelines 0-0. Of course why not give a go to 0-0 Correct Half-Time score, X/2 HT/FT, and a 0-1 final score. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  4. Re: Netherlands, Eredivisie - 3/4 March [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD]Football (Holland)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD]Ajax - Roda Jc[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD]Over 4.5 goals[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD]7/10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD]04/03/2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD]Betway @ 2.90[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] The bookies opened the lines on this one much higher for both the over and the handicap on Ajax, but they are severely slashed right to a point where the over 2.5 is somewhere around 1.20-1.30 and the handicap is at 1.50. Roda Jc has been a sparring partner for Ajax this season, as well as in the last couple of seasons. These 2 teams already played eachother twice this season, both games in Roda, and it ended 4-0 for Ajax in the league and a more balanced 4-2 for Ajax in the Cup. However I see it, judging by the results in the last couple of seasons as well, Ajax simply doesn't have any complex in scoring goals against Roda here. As for the guests, they already suffered a lot on their trips this season. 7-1 defeat at PSV altough they did manage to score despite being a man down. An entertaining draws, 3-3 at ADO and 4-3 loss at Heerenveen, 3-1 loss at Utrecht, as well as 5-0 loss at Vitesse and 3-0 loss at Feyenoord. They have one of the poorest defences in the league, yet their scoring record is not that bad, especially striker Malki being in good form since he was brought in. Ajax is in good form at the moment, 3 wins in a row, 4-1 with both Excelsior and NEC as well a 2-1 win on Old Trafford. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  5. Re: Bundesliga - 3-4 March couldn't agree more [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD]Football (Germany)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD]Hamburger Sv - Stuttgart[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD]Over 3.5 goals[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD]10/10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD]03/03/2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD]Boylesports @ 2.88[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Stuttgart have really impressed in their last couple of games with their offensive displays. They looked really good up-front in their loss 2-4 at Hannover, as well as in their 4-1 win last week at home over Freiburg. They create a lot of scoring chances, are dangerous from free-kicks, but most importantly they are able to put their chances away. Their away record may not be that great, but truth is they have played some tough opposition, yet they still managed to score constantly. To tell u the truth, I don't really like Hamburg that much. When u expect them to win, they screw up, when u expect them to lose, they get a point. But one thing I learned about them, never trust them to keep a clean sheet at home against a team in good scoring form like Stuttgart is here. At the same time, trust them to score, as they do create numerous chances every game, altough sometimes their finishing isn't the best like against Werder. I don't like Hamburg's defence that much to be honest, and their goalkeeper Drobny has saved them numerous times this season. I trust Stuttgart to get a goal here, Hamburg to do the same, the game opening up and over 2.5 being won. Adding one more goal for good odds. Over 3.5. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  6. Re: Romania, Liga 1 2011/12 [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD]Football (Romania)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD]Brasov - Pandurii[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD]Over 2.5 goals[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD]5/10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD]02/03/2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD]Pinnacle Sports @ 2.79[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD]Both teams have had some changes over the winter break. Pandurii lost central defender Chiriches, alongside 2 foreign players, central midfielder Vranjes and striker Stromajer. While the departure of Chiriches is indeed important, as he is one of the most promising Romanian central defenders, the other 2 aren't as important as it might seem. That's because Pandurii play nice passing football, and both those 2 were always able to rely on good teamplay to allow themselves good scoring opportunities. Brasov changed a bunch of foreigners for another bunch of foreigners. They did lost Chipciu and Cristescu, but honestly I never liked any of those 2. During the winter break both teams have played many friendlies, both have been scoring a decent amount of goals, and both conceded a couple, so no real signs that these 2 teams should struggle in front of goal here. Further more - the record between these 2 teams in the last couple of years has been very productive in terms of goals - 3-2 for Brasov last season, 2-0 and 2-1 also for Brasov 2 and 3 seasons ago. In Autumn, it ended 2-1 for Pandurii, in an entertaining game which could have gone either way. The cup was a different story, both teams canceling each other out and it was decided on penalties. Weather conditions aren't so bad, it's getting warmer. And I doubt the pitch is any worser than both these teams have been playing on in their friendlies this break. Bottom line is, Pandurii is not the type of team to be priced at 2.79 for over 2.5 goals when they are playing away at a decent home team with goals in them, 4 points above the relegation line and eager for a win. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  7. Re: UEFA Europa League > Weds 22 & Thurs 23 February Anderlecht - Az Alkmaar The first leg was dominated by Az, and the 1-0 final result really flatters Anderlecht. Truth is the Belgian team showed an awfull defence, and the way Az pass the ball up-front on the wings really created havoc in their defence. But this is a return leg and still chances for Anderlecht to go through if they win this by more than a goal, or a 1-0 win which would put this game into extra-time. Anderlecht at the same time is much more effective at home, and given the players they have up-front, like Mbokani or Jovanovic, they sure can get some. The game that comes into my mind is their 5-3 win over Lokomotiv Moscow in their last group game. Scenario could very well be similar with both teams having goals in them. Pick: Over 3.5 goals @3.20 Sportingbet 6/10
  8. Re: UEFA Europa League > Weds 22 & Thurs 23 February Steaua - Twente Having seen the first game it is pretty clear that a decent attack could produce damage to Twente, but Steaua didn't have creativity in midfield, the only player capable of taking that role, Brandan, played as left full-back, which was a mistake from my point of view as Twente rarely attacked and when they did it really didn't matter that much whether Latovlevici or Brandan played in that position. Now for this game Martinovici will start as right full-back. Which means Steaua will be better covered in that position as far as defence is concerned, but he is technically limited, and can not help the team attacking. Actually this is a more defensive Steaua team than in the first leg, with Prepelita taking the right winger role from Rusescu, which was another mistake tactically speaking from Stan. Rusescu is Steaua's best striker, the most efficient one at least. Playing him in a more defensive position didn't suit him, so now Ilie Stan puts him in the right position as striker and if Twente defends like in Bucharest he can score. So tactically speaking, this is the team I was expecting in the first leg, with Bourceanu coming back in the center of midfield, but he was suspended. In the first game it became clear that Steaua can not match Twente in terms of individual quality. Twente has players up-front who can make the difference all by themselves, pacey wingers with good dribbling ability, capable of delivering quality crosses as well as scoring goals. For Steaua, there is only one such player, Rusescu, while their 2nd best alternative for scoring is set pieces, possible but hard against a Dutch team with tall strong players well adept to defending high balls. At the same time Twente has players in the center of midfield capable of making through balls for the pacey players up-front, something that Steaua can only count on Brandan to do. So yes, Twente is better team than Steaua, and the sheer ambition of the Romanians failed to give us a win in the first leg, altough a draw would have been a fair result. Taking in consideration all these things, it could get ugly for Steaua tonight as Twente are very good on counters, and it will take a great game from goalkeeper Tatarusanu to keep Steaua into the tie. Most likely Steaua will try an agressive pressing like in the first leg, something similar to what they tried in Israel against Maccabi Haifa, and against a team like Twente it is suicidal, as the Dutch team were really not pushing on the pedal in the first leg, and I expect them to be more goal wise in this second leg, as it is really easier to put a couple past Steaua here and enjoy the game than defend a nil draw till the end. At the same time with Brandan in the center of midfield and Rusescu as striker, Steaua has improved chances of scoring a goal, but so do Twente since the left full-back Latovlevici is kind of slow, and will have big problems with Chadli. I believe the boring part is over now, and we shall see a more entertainig game. My prediction is a 3-1 or 4-1 win for Twente, and altough I want Steaua to qualify further, I don't see them capable of doing. Hopefully I'm wrong, but my bets go the other way. Pick: Over 3.5 goals - 3.20 @Sprotingbet 6/10 Over 4.5 goals - 6.50 @ Sportingbet 4/10
  9. Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 22 February [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD]Football (Champions League)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD]Basel - Bayern Munchen[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD]Bayern(-1.5)AH[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD]5/10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD]22/02/2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD]Pinnacle Sports @ 2.90[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] I like the line-up for Bayern in this game. Alaba and Gustavo will be the defensive midfielder, but Alaba is very good in the offence as well. At the same time up-front we have like always Gomez, supported by Kroos, Muller and Ribery. No Robben, it seems, and this is good as he has been awfull lately, very selfish. Basel produce a big shock in eliminating Manchester United in the group stage. Main reason for this has to go to Ferguson who didn't use his best line-ups in most of the games, while his tactics in Basel were wrong. Bayern won both games against Basel 2 years ago in the Group Stage. An easy 3-0 win at home and a hard worked 2-1 win at Basel. Basel does have quality up-front and can score here today, but at the same time their defence has looked really fragile especially at home where Benfica beat them 3-1 while Otelul deserved a point in the 2-1 defeat. With Manchester they were a bit lucky. Odds are good and I'll take a try. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  10. Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Feb 20-22 [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD]Football (England - Non League)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD]York - Gateshead[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD]Over 4.5 goals[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD]2/10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD]22/02/2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD]Unibet @ 5.00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD]With York in the Playoff Places and Gateshead coming here for a win to cut the distance to the top 5 short, this should be a cracking game. With the reverse fixture proving to be a goal fest way back in September, finished 3-2 for Gateshead, we could very well see a repeat of that here now. York has the 2nd best attack at home in the league, with 37 goals scored, but at the same time have leaked in goals as they do not have a bullet proof defence, and usually do concede in such games. Gateshead at the same time is one of the most overrish team in the league having their last 5 games ending over 2.5 goals at the very least and 2 of them went as far as over 4.5 won. They have no problems scoring goals, but at the same time their defence has been leaking goals all season, and this game should be ending over 2.5 goals at the very least. The last 3 fixtures between the 2 sides have all produced at least 3 goals. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  11. Re: Netherlands - Jupiler League - 27-30 January [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD]Football (Holland)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD]MVV - Telstar[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD]Over 3.5 goals[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD]8/10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD]27/01/2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD]Paddy Power @ 2.20[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] MVV plays open football, they score a lot of goals both home and away, and in such games where both teams look safe from relegation, but nowhere close promotion, the games are really open and a lot of goals are scored. Actually from the 10 home games played by MVV at home this season, 8 of them went over 3.5 goals Telstar is also a team keen on playing high scoring games both home and away. 6 of their 9 away games have gone over 3.5 goals this season. They are missing 2 defenders for this game, but have in striker Plat a player capable of scoring in every game. In Telstar, MVV managed to win 3-2, having scored 3 goals already in the first half, while Telstar managed to get its second goal in the second half despite having its goalkeeper sent off since the first half. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  12. Re: Copa del Rey 2011-2012 [TABLE=width: 100%] [TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD]Football (Spain)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD]Barcelona - Real Madrid[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD]Over 3 goals[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD]7/10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD]25/01/2012[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD]188bet @ 1.87[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Barcelona will come into this game with its strongest line-up. A 4-3-3 formations which will see Busquets as defensive midfielder, Xavi, Iniesta in the center of midfield and Fabregas, Alexis and Messi in more advanced positions. At the same time their defence is complete with Dani Alves and Abidal the full-back, Pique and Puyol in the center, while their only missing is between the posts with Pinto being the designated Copa Del Rey goalkeeper. It's a good thing for the over bet as Valdes has been in excellent form lately. About Real Madrid... Mourinho is hard to understand when creating the tactics for the game with Barca. Probably the 5-0 loss last season on Nou Camp has been constantly haunting him ever since, having preffered to sit back and counter Barca ever since, with disastrous results. Now Real needs 2 goals, at the very least. What will Mourinho do? He would probably once against play wtih 3 defensive midfielders, if not for Khedira's injury. But there are other options, with Pepe, and knowing Mourinho... it wouldn't come as a major shock if he would start here, Coentrao or Granero as the 3rd defensive midfielder. I do not believe Mourinho has the balls to play with both Benzema-Higuain in the attack with Ronaldo and Ozil also on the pitch. He'll probably once again sit back, and only make changes when time is running up. And despite all this, I'll take the over cause ration tells me Real needs 2, Barca with its strongest line-up except goalkeeper, Real with a shitty defence, and every reason for the over, except for 2 things - Barca doesn't need to score, and Mourinho sucks with his 3 defensive midfielders and counter-attacking Barca - someone should tell him by now u can't counter-attack a team with 73% possesion, 3 times more passes than u and expect to win. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  13. Re: Italy - Serie A - 21-22 January Sport Football (Italy) Event Palermo - Genoa Selection Over 3.5 goals Strength 7/10 Date 22/01/2012 Bookmaker/Price Boylesports @ 3.50 Reasoning Palermo's coach Mutti is under fire after he failed to lead his team to any win since being appointed. I watched their game against Napoli, and they looked really good in the opening minutes, creating a couple of good scoring chances, but the game changed really quick and since Napoli got the opening goal it was all downhill for them. Offensive midfielders Zahavi and Hernandez are out for this game, but up-front the trio Miccoli-Pinolla-Ilicic can always produce goals. At the same time their full-backs Balzaretti and Munoz are good on going up-front and can produce decent crosses but at the same time their defensive displays are somehow lacking. Also in the center of midfield Barreto and Migliaccio can provide decent through balls. Genoa is an attacking minded team which signed some excellent players this transfer window. Most importantly, in the attack they now relly on 3 clinical strikers in the likes of Palacio-Gilardino-Sculli, and we could already see in their last game at home over Udinese that they are able to produce more goals, winning 3-2, but most importantly, getting 3 goals against a team like Udinese known for their good defence. Some missings in the defence for Genoa, though, and this team has conceded 11 goals in their last 3 Serie A games. At the same time they have an excellent attack, and should be able to get on the scoresheet here.
  14. Re: Netherlands - Eredivisie - 20-22 January Sport Football (Holland) Event VVV Venlo - Feyenoord Selection Over 3 goals Strength 9/10 Date 22/01/2012 Bookmaker/Price 188bet @ 1.97 Reasoning Venlo have sold striker Musa to CSKA Moscow this winter for a recorded fee of 5 million euros. They have also brought in a couple of players, midfielder Berghuis from Twente, Leiwakabessy from Anorthosis, Holla from Groningen and Vorstermans from Utrecht, and pretty much all of them are expected to start for the hosts today. Feyenoord pretty much keep an unchanged line-up from the first part of the season. Top goalscorer Guidetti will be up-front, from their website I couldn't find striker Cisse in the starting line-up, but Schaken, Cabral and Bakkal are all quality players up-front. VVV Venlo is usually able to give a good fight at home against any opponent, Feyenoord come with only the win in their mind and should be able to score goals here. An open game and over on my mind.