Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Couple for tomorrow. must get June results done this week apologies for that! 2.50 FFos Las Terrible weak event but that said one of these has entered my notebook recently and another I backed last time out. This could be run at a bit of a dawdle as there is not a single confirmed front runner in the field. Novebridge hasnt shown much recently and will need to improve to carry top weight against older horses. Just For Mary is another that has shown very little recently and mark has plummetted and will perhaps find this easier than the big fields he has competing in over in Ireland and always wary of an irish raider but even so needs to show more. Liberal Lady is an interesting runner off a lowly mark having shown plenty of promise in AW maidens and didnt win one in February to be honest that hasnt worked out to be the greatest race although 2nd did win off a handicap mark of 63 and she is rated 61, does need to prove as effective on turf and although perhaps ring rusty on return for new yard she was well held but return to 5f looks postive as did shape as if didnt get home over a soft ground 6f. The rest have shown very little except for Pinball who I tipped up last time out but his attitude is getting in the way of his ability at the moment and looks one to avoid until sorting that out. Hoh Hoh Hoh entered my notebook with a very weak pencil scratching he just showed very small promise last time out. He has been in rapid decline for the past 2 years, and last time out was first journey into class 6 and he travelled much better for a long way last time out and if that was a slight return to form he is so well treated on his best form clearly not that good now but even so cant be ignored in this field. Personally I would like to see him kicked on with as there is no obvious pace angle and just put his stamp on the race. Good ground no concern and useful apprentice takes off a handy 5lb. 2pt win Hoh Hoh Hoh 6.10 Windsor Again no obvious front runner in the field other than Equuleus Pictor who can make the running or be up with the pace. Gutted I missed him at Southwell last week simply because I wasnt sure a return to 6f was sure to suit and was also drawn wide which can often be bad thing. Took a wide trip throughout although probably ended up in the right part of the track in the home straight as it happened, appeared to win with plenty in hand. He had been promising to come back to his best this season and all his better form has always come on turf so the return to turf of no concern same for the switch back to 5f, has plenty of course form including a win and given that he could get a soft lead over a course that lends itself to a front runner should see him go well under a penalty with apprentice taking off further 2lb he remains 11lb below his previous last winning mark. 4pt win Equuleus Pictor 7/4 hills

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 2.40 Brighton Probably more my heart ruling my head in this one on the old boy The Tatling though that said and admitted he must hold a solid chance. Mandhooma goes well here with 6 course wins to her name but recent good efforts have come over 7f and 1mile and doesnt look in need of a switch back to 6f, also slowly creeping back up the weights another 1lb higher today and requires a career best. Another needing a career best is Bermondsey Bob and doesnt get off lightly for dead heating last time out on softer ground with a 6lb rise in the weights, has form on faster ground but has been found more at home recently in softer conditions. Another that might want safer condtions than fast ground round here at Brighton is Elsies Orphan who is relatively unexposed and won well last time out, that said that was a very weak event and on good ground and the race itself couldnt have worked out any worse with those that having run since have failed to finish closer than 5 lengths to a winner since, she certainly looks a skinny price. For me the ol Tatling looks a very reasonable price, will be well suited to the fast ground, has gone well here on 2 runs here including a CD win and he finally got back on the scoresheet after a run of creditable efforts coming with a rattling late run under Hayley at Yarmouth last time out, just as at home over 6f and 5lb rise might not stop the follow up having some solid form of similar marks over the past year or so. Hayley gets the leg up again. 1pt win The Tatling 5/1 bet365 7.30 Yarmouth You can cross Macie, Gala Spirit and Danzoe out straight away all 3 have shown very little of any worth recently. Wreningham also joins that list although he is very well treated if recapturing anything like his old spark but no sign of that recently. Paradise Place won first time up for this yard but has since just been held by the handicapper and although perhaps 1st time cheekpieces were to blame for lesser effort last time out still needs a career best at first try at taking on elders. Whiskey Junction managed to win a claimer on AW last time out but had previously been well held in handicaps and wil find this tough under a 6lb penalty although has previous form off higher marks but that was a long time ago. Bobbys Doll has improved recently bumped into the rejuvinated The Tatling before winning by 3 lrngths at Brighton in a weakish handicap, did win with plenty of authority but does also meet another potentially unexposed sort. Star Twilight has potential to go on from a promising reappearance, he recorded a decent racingpost speed figure last time out, his only win to date has come over CD off a 3lb lower mark, he is dropped 1lb since reappearance when he raced up with the pace and looked in need of the run in the final furlong should strip fitter for the run and could get a softer lead in this race than has often been the case with only Bobbys Doll the only other that may make the running. 2pts win Star Twilight 7/2 hills 9.10 Southwell Elusive Warrior has done nearly all his winning round here but has long been out of form and looked very one paced recently and although that is probably exageratted on this surface he still doesnt look a winner waiting to happen and is held on recent run behind Ubenkor and Jonnie Skull. This Ones For Eddy won with some in hand at wolves on penultimate start went up 3lb for that effort but was slightly disappointing in a slightly stronger race over the same CD. Has run well here before including 2 wins and is still well in on old form winning off a 9lb higher mark over CD 2 years ago but last time out effort was defenetily not enough to take this. Ubenkor is held by Jonnie Skull who has been running well of late over CD, up another 1lb for last time outs 2nd but again looks a very short price probably because of the 'Dousa' factor at the moment and I just couldnt have him at 2/1. For me Bonnie Prince Blue looks a massive price having shown a real sign of a return to form last time out having generally struggled for his new yard recently. Was totally outpaced most of the race behind Equuleus Pictor when badly drawn in stall 13 over 6f last time out but finished like a bullet train which is not easy to do on this surface and another 50yards and he would have won comfortably and if he can repeat that over this furlong extra he has to have a solid chance. Same jockey gets the ride today after giving him a never say never ride last time out, 4lb below last handicap win and jockey takes off the handy 5lb looks well treated and must go well in a smaller field and better drawn. 3pt win Bonnie Prince Blue 5/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Incendo -1 Shallow Bay -1 Dark Ranger -2 Mayoman -1 Fastinthestraight -2 Mirrored -1 Tartan Gunna -1 Night Carnation -4 Ghost Dancer -2 Mildoura +5.4 -2 Beauty Pagent -3 Lake Chini -2 Flag of Glory -2 Wootton Bassett -2 Easy Terms +16.5 -3 The Tatling -2 Bronze Prince -1 Dance and Dance -1 Pintura -1 Eton Forever -1 City Of The Kings +5.5 -2 Geordieland -2 Dolphin Rock -2 Dreamacha +6.5 -2 Heddwyn -2 Dayia -4 Lost in the moment -1 Bea Remember -2 Across the Rhine -2 Axiom -2 Beat The Shower -2 Sunset Kitty -2 Roberto Pegasus +32.25 -6 Woop Woop -1 Shallow Bay -4 Foxtrot Alpha +8.67 -2 Equuleus Pictor -2 Invincible Soul -2 Pravda Street -2 Marjury Daw -1 Quite Sparky +15 -2 The Wee Chief -2 Ay Tay Tay -2 Curtains -2 Captivator -3 Lujeanie +4.5 -2 Klynch -1 Roker Park -1 Harlestone Time -4 Grams and Ounces -2 Zain Shamardal -2 Whozthecat -2 Chief Exec +3 -1 Mildoura +6.8 -4 Wisemans Diamond -1 Justcallmehandsome +9 -1 Penang Cinta -1 Shawkantango -2 The Tatling +10 -2 Doc Hay -4 Staked: 121 Return: 123.12 P/L: +2.12 Tiny profit in June but with July starting awful and no signs of turning the corner at the moment really need to find the key again which appears to be lost!!

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 2.20 Haydock This has turned into a 4 runner affair after 4 non runners and this makes Your Gifted look a massive price in my opinion. She has always performed better in smaller fields, she has been in great form recently trainer has put the improved form down to her being in foal. Last time outs effort can be forgiven as she raced up with a furios pace and probably paid for a hefty rise in the weights having won a apprentice handicap over CD in easy style, should find it easier to play a role in this smaller field under the same jockey that won on her and appears to get on well with her. Nomoreblondes is a massive threat if able to reproduce the win she produce last time out in apprentice handicap, unpenalised and I am always wary of that as many of these get turned over at short prices for one reason or another and she often needs a strong pace to chase and not sure she will get that. 1pt win Your Gifted 6/1 pp 3.40 Newbury Dont often bet in 2 yr old races but one entered my notebook at Royal Ascot and that was B Fifty Two, he was under pressure fairly early but stayed on well to take a slightly distant 5th finishing the best of the rest, prior to that run he beat the very useful looking Lilbourne Lad who has since won a 5 runner group 2 and a 5 runner listed event. He has a fantastic attitude for a youngster which I like to see, ground is no worry and is clearly improving with racing and has a decent speed rating from that run at Ascot. 1pt e/w B Fifty Two 9/1 lads 7.45 Hamilton Doc Hay is worth another chance having rapidly improved for his new inform stable this season. Perhaps excuses last time out when potentially racing on the wrong part of the track and also perhaps not suited to the steady pace in the early stages. Should get a much truer gallop in this field and just creeps into this off a very low weight and although a further 3lb higher in handicap than for last time out but still has potentially for going the right way, was running on late last time out over the 5f and has always looked better suited to a slightly longer trip or a really true test. He is also 2 from 2 round here although perhaps ground not ideal rain is due long before this race is due off which would increase his chances. 1pt win Doc Hay 7/1 lads

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 2 quick ones today from my notebook! 3.25 Ripon Midnight Oil has shown improvement with each run, running out a very comfortable and eye catching winner last time out in a maiden over 1m3f. The further furlong today is only gonna suit more as the further he went he better he looked. A mark of 85 could have easily underestimated this horse in my opinion having comfortably beaten horses rated 74 and is completely unexposed and clearly improving with racing. Cumanis horses remain in good form and the rain softened ground would look to be ideal! 2pt win Midnight Oil 5/2 pp 5.10 Newbury Another horse making a handicap debut on the flat today is Keys for Charlton. He has looked a very useful horse in 3 bumpers including a listed bumper at Cheltenham, hasnt exactly pulled up any trees on the flat in 3 maidens but they have all been respectable efforts and the thing to remember is they were over 1m4f which is clearly inadequate for a staying horse but now gets the handicap mark required to go to work on and that looks very reasonable judged on the bumper success's and also on a form line through Ithoughtitwasover who Keys beat by 11lengths then went on to beat the useful looking Parvana who won today on handicap debut off a mark of 75 Keys goes to war on a mark of 78 making him look very well treated. Any overnight rain I think will be relished and this marked step up in trip on handicap debut is no coincidence I feel and should take the world of beating! 3pt win Keys

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 8.40 Windsor Regal Salute is the least exposed runner in this field with just 3 runs to date and making handicap debut a mark of 71 looks fair for what she has shown so far and that said the latter is a problem at 7/2 in a competitive field as to whether she has quite enough experience in this field. Ground could be a little bit lively for Miss Bootylishes and has always been held by similar marks in the past. Another potentially unexposed runner could be the aptly named Crazy Chris, she was a good winner over CD last summer on fast ground when making all, didnt get such an easy time under a penalty next time out but still produced a good 2nd. Not seen since till 2 months ago when virtually pulled up been given a chance to get over that and must have been a reason for that awful run, has a good record fresh so another short break isnt a concern over this fast ground to suit. She could get an easy lead here with the only other confirmed front runner be Alshazah! 1pt e/w Crazy Chris 20/1 hills

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 7.00 Southwell Most of these come into this with very little if any recent form all except AmTired who showed plenty of promise in last 2 runs all over this CD each time slowly away making up a lot of late ground and only failed by a neck last time out behind the useful fibresand performer Positivity and if repeating that has to go very close off same mark and even better drawn today if getting out on terms. Clearly handles this surface and yard remain in good heart. The saver bet is George Thisby who is 1 from 1 on the fibresand admitly over 6f, potential excuses for poor runs so far this season, last time out was over a trip to far and first run of season was on fast ground which has never suited before. Millman yard doing well recently and if memory serves me right (Racingpost site down so cant get stats) they have a very good record at this track. Its also worth noting its there only runner tomorrow and is a long drive from Devon so clearly not just going for the day out and if first time blinkers have a positive effect he is well handicapped 5lb below last winning mark and is wel drawn in stall 4. 3pt win Amtired 1pt win George Thisby

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 3.40 Catterick Interesting mid week sprint. Plenty of front runners in the field which rules out Lucky Art, Cruise Tothelimit and Foxy Music. I would be keen on Absa Lutte if the ground was fast but I feel that is highly unlikely and she has never act on soft ground before, but she has been running well and will get a race run to suit over a course that should suit her. Your Gifted looks the one to be with here again, she has been kept very busy of late and has stood her racing well. Since she has been in foal she has found a great level of form and proven very reliable and consistent. She was a confident winner at Haydock last week in a 4 runner event on fast ground and was even better in a valuable handicap at Curragh over the weekend, she is only 4lb higher today under a penalty for her win last week as she is racing off a 2lb lower mark than last week and she is one of only a few in this race that will act on the softer ground and she will get the race run to suit a strong pace which she enjoys travelling behind as she has shown recently travelling very well. She is also a CD winner which is a bonus around here! 3pt win Your Gifted 4/1 vc 9.00 Leicester Not the strongest looking race in the world with Fossgate likely to be a non runner have run yesterday and been disappointing, Penang Cinta is starting to show some dodgy attitude and is half the horse away from Brighton. Sennockian Storm looks a big threat to all these, I would normally avoid apprentice handicap winners going unpenalised as they often win weak races and struggle to follow up but this is weak aswell and she did win in convincing style and that was her first try at this trip so is very unexposed at this trip and could be the key to her. She looked a useful filly in maidens last year and is certainly bred and cost a lot more than the average 52 rated horse but rapidly went the wrong way until last time out and if she has returned to form she looks very well treated having been rated as high as 75 on her maiden form, her maiden win came on ground with some cut so that shouldnt be a problem neither. 2pts win Sennockian Storm

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 3.55 Sandown Plenty of pace on here with so many front runners and this could be setup for a strong traveller and this race looks setup for Absinthe who showed signs of a return to form last time out. He looked a handicapper to follow last season winning 2 handicaps last season including at Windsor on soft ground when he was very impressive, that was off a mark of 83 and handicapper hit him hard for that with a 9lb rise and next ran in the Cambridgshire and ran a respectable race but has gone off the boil this season but handicapper given him a massive chance dropping him to a mark of 84 and this will be his first chance back on soft ground and has to have a massive chance. 3pt win Absinthe 10/3 pp 7.25 Doncaster York Glory is very near nap material for me and he looks a massive price in my opinion especially since the going has changed from G/F to G G/S in places! Kevin Ryan has always stated this his horse would be so much better on softer ground. Yet he ran his best race to date last time out on fast ground at Haydock over 6 with 1st time blinkers which have clearly been put on to try and keep him sttraight in a finish as he has been known to hang and they did there job well. He was a good second but was perhaps a little to keen in early stages and he is clearly not the most straightforward and has his quirks but also bags of ability, the first 2 finished well clear of a good benchmark in Thirteen Shivers by nearly 4 lengths who also finished well clear of the rest. He is set to race off a 5lb higher mark so this looks a golden opportunity to cash in before the handicapper has his say especially on softer ground. 5pt win York Glory 9/4 betfred 4.50 Bath Backing a horse in a low grade class 6 handicap off a rating of 46 that is fully exposed always comes with plenty of risk attached and isnt for some people. What Katie Did has shown signs of a revival recently for the Bradley yard who has enjoyed a good spell recently. She hasnt won for over 2 years but now finds herself on a career low mark off a 46 having won off as high as 65. As effective on good ground aswell as fast ground. Went off to hard infront last time out but did still stick to the task well for 4th to suggest she is in form. Both Miss Firefly and What Katie Did are the fornt runners in this race but both have to come from a wide draw so it will just depend on how hard it is to get to the front but with lack of other pace what ever leads could get a soft lead. 1pt win What Katie Did 11/2 lads 6.40 Epsom Would usually avoid handicaps at Epsom as they often chuck up strange results with some horses not handling the course. There is also no course winners here. Living It Large is well treated on old form and did win last time out but concern is that he needs fast ground and when it gets soft at Epsom it is soft! Boogie Waltzer ran a good race on return from short break last time out at Southwell but has recieved a rise for that and now needs a career best although soft ground will suit. But Clear Praise looks a big price, he is relatively lightly raced horse who has mainly been kept to the AW but has only had 2 starts on the turf first time was a competitive newmarket handicap didnt run with much promise but offered much more over 6f round here last time out finishing very well from the rear, obvious concern is the switch back to 5f but stamina might be a benefit tonight in testing conditions and therefore puts him in the picture having handled the course before! 2pt win Clear Praise 4/1 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Fingers crossed for some better luck been horrendous today :(!! 3.55 Ascot After several poor days it has certainly dampened my enthusiasm but I was always gonna have a nap bet on Keys when I saw the decs earlier in the week. He was given a potentially cocky ride by Spencer last weekend which in my opinion has caused a slightly excessive rise in the weights, he is due to go up 16lb for his win but today gets away with just a 6lb penalty and obviously should be hard to beat. He was hard on the bridle at the line and it only a guess to how much he could have won by. Admitly that was a poorish class 4 staying event and this is a step up in class but clearly has the ability to be something a little bit special potentially listed/group class. He has already shown a good level of form in bumpers winning a listed event at cheltenham and showed plenty of promise in maidens at inadequate trips and stepped upto 2mile on handicap debut and took the piss, soft ground doesnt look any problem having won on heavy ground in bumpers. Spencer keeps the ride and I would like to see him not give it quite such a cocky ride! Also gonna have a little saver on Dayia, she won a listed race on final start last season in france and ran a good enough race last time out on first run of the season over a trip that probably in the end stretched her, should find this step back in trip a positive and soft ground again no concern as she loves the mud and if she strips fitter and builds on reappearance she has to be considered. 10pt win Keys 5/4 lads 1pt e/w Dayia 12/1 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 3.50 Ascot Hawkeyethenoo couldnt have been more impressive over CD in he Victoria Cup back in May. 8lb rise for that impressive victory and that race working out well with 2nd winning next time out off 2lb higher mark and is clearly still progressing and this might be his last chance in a handicap. Goes on any ground it seems and same apprentice gets the ride taking off the handy 3lb and could easily make it 2 from 2 over CD 2pt e/w Hawkeyethenoo 8/1 hills 4.30 Ascot The big race of the day and just the select 5, Debussy is clearly here to set a good pace for Rewilding to chase so this should be run at a fair pace. Nathaniel is lightly raced and couldnt have been more impressive when winning the King Edward VII over todays CD but takes on some even more classy animals here and will need to take a big step forward. St Nicholas Abbey has to be questionable over a truly run race at this trip and also with ground drying out that is also not guaranteed to suit. For me Rewilding looks the pick at the current prices, Workforce wouldnt want that faster ground and going on strict form lines Rewilding has the beating of Workforce with So You Think form line, with Rewilding beating him at Royal Ascot of course there is the excuse SYT wasnt wound up enough for the race but even so it was a good performance by Rewilding over a trip that was on the short side, and since then SYT has beaten Workforce fair and square and Rewilding has form on faster ground aswell as soft ground, and has been given plenty of time to get over his last run and step back up in trip is only gonna suit more! 3pt win Rewilding 3/1 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 3.50 Ascot Hawkeyethenoo couldnt have been more impressive over CD in he Victoria Cup back in May. 8lb rise for that impressive victory and that race working out well with 2nd winning next time out off 2lb higher mark and is clearly still progressing and this might be his last chance in a handicap. Goes on any ground it seems and same apprentice gets the ride taking off the handy 3lb and could easily make it 2 from 2 over CD 2pt e/w Hawkeyethenoo 8/1 hills 4.30 Ascot The big race of the day and just the select 5, Debussy is clearly here to set a good pace for Rewilding to chase so this should be run at a fair pace. Nathaniel is lightly raced and couldnt have been more impressive when winning the King Edward VII over todays CD but takes on some even more classy animals here and will need to take a big step forward. St Nicholas Abbey has to be questionable over a truly run race at this trip and also with ground drying out that is also not guaranteed to suit. For me Rewilding looks the pick at the current prices, Workforce wouldnt want that faster ground and going on strict form lines Rewilding has the beating of Workforce with So You Think form line, with Rewilding beating him at Royal Ascot of course there is the excuse SYT wasnt wound up enough for the race but even so it was a good performance by Rewilding over a trip that was on the short side, and since then SYT has beaten Workforce fair and square and Rewilding has form on faster ground aswell as soft ground, and has been given plenty of time to get over his last run and step back up in trip is only gonna suit more! 3pt win Rewilding 3/1 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 6.30 York Zip Lock is an interesting runner at a reasonable price, probably one of the least exposed runners in this field just 6 runs to date 4 on the all weather and 2 on the turf, all his best form to date has come on the AW including his maiden win last year and his best effort to date was last time out round kempton over this trip still has potential to improve if that improvement can be converted to the turf running off the same mark here and handles the soft ground. Stables is also in a lot better form than they have been recently. 1pt win Zip Lock 8/1 vc 6.50 Chepstow Gask’s Delaware Dancer is becoming slightly frustrating, he looked a useful sort in maidens and clearly needs a race run to suit but with this step back upto 7f he might get away with a race not run at quite a true pace. He may also be suited to a more positive ride which they do appear to be trying last time out before being hampered quite significantly and again spared a hard race but handicapper felt right to drop him 2lb which makes him look well treated as he was stil travelling quite well last time out. His only win has come on good ground and tongue tie appears for the first time (did wear it on debut but refused to race not been worn since) 2pt win Delaware Dancer 4/1 vc 8.10 Newmarket Eltheeb looks a very big price considering how easily he won last time out. He bounced back from a much lesser effort the time before at Ponte but was hampered and probably spared a hard race on the face of it. Made amends for that effort next time out winning by an eased down 4 1/2lengths and a 7lb rise may not be enough to stop this horses good form and still improving with ground with some cut in it ideal at step up in trip looks a positive move on the back of his effort last time out when winning going away. 1pt win Eltheeb 9/1 pp 8.30 York Thirteen Shivers is a decent looking 3yr old, he has won 2 handicaps this season off marks of 73 and 79, now rated just 4lb higher he has just been unlucky to bump into slightly better handicapped horses. But he himself beat the rest of the field comfortably, runs off the same mark today and gets a rare opportunity back at 5f which I feel is perhaps a good move as he looks a speedy sort. He is 1 from 1 over CD having won a very competitive race here before and this looks a great deal easier than that and goes well on ground with some cut. 2pt win Thirteen Shivers 10/3 pp

[fintron]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread

Fingers crossed for some better luck been horrendous today :(!! 3.55 Ascot After several poor days it has certainly dampened my enthusiasm but I was always gonna have a nap bet on Keys when I saw the decs earlier in the week. He was given a potentially cocky ride by Spencer last weekend which in my opinion has caused a slightly excessive rise in the weights, he is due to go up 16lb for his win but today gets away with just a 6lb penalty and obviously should be hard to beat. He was hard on the bridle at the line and it only a guess to how much he could have won by. Admitly that was a poorish class 4 staying event and this is a step up in class but clearly has the ability to be something a little bit special potentially listed/group class. He has already shown a good level of form in bumpers winning a listed event at cheltenham and showed plenty of promise in maidens at inadequate trips and stepped upto 2mile on handicap debut and took the piss, soft ground doesnt look any problem having won on heavy ground in bumpers. Spencer keeps the ride and I would like to see him not give it quite such a cocky ride! Also gonna have a little saver on Dayia, she won a listed race on final start last season in france and ran a good enough race last time out on first run of the season over a trip that probably in the end stretched her, should find this step back in trip a positive and soft ground again no concern as she loves the mud and if she strips fitter and builds on reappearance she has to be considered. 10pt win Keys 5/4 lads 1pt e/w Dayia 12/1 vc

good conviction on the keys bet Chris, thought Spencer had pulled another one of his classic rides out of the bag but luckily the gap appeared in the end. Noticed Your Gifted is out again at the weekend too, think it was Sunday Ascot.

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread

good conviction on the keys bet Chris' date=' thought Spencer had pulled another one of his classic rides out of the bag but luckily the gap appeared in the end. Noticed Your Gifted is out again at the weekend too, think it was Sunday Ascot.[/quote'] Yeah cheers Fin needed a winner starting to feel like I couldnt hit a barn door :( Yeh seen that looks really hot race would be interested at an EW price!

[BillyHills]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Well done Chris:clap

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Cheers BH, trouble is need a lot more than a 5/4 shot winning at mo lol!! Bit short of time but 2 notebook horses running tomorrow, desperate for a winner getting ridiculous really! 3.25 Ascot Burj Nahar couldnt have been more impressive on comeback run at HQ last month beating the useful if frustrating Zain Shamardal quite convingcingly and looks a bit of a handicap blot. He won off a mark of 95 and now runs off a mark of 102 which doesnt look a massive rise in my opinion. That all came having been off the track for nearly 2 years having won his maiden in emphatic style on the bit admitdly that form hasnt worked out that great but he did beat the field well. That was on soft ground so no concern if there is still some juice in the ground. Clearly Burg Nahar is much better than a handicapper in my opinion! 5pt win Burj Nahar 7/4 bet365 5.10 Ascot Really competitive sprint but I am gonna stick to my guns and continue to follow Your Gifted who won a 4 runner race beating the inform Nomoreblondes (who ran a solid race last nice went off to hard but showed enough) and then went to Curragh 48hrs later to run best race to date in a valuable handicap finishes 2 lengths adrift of the useful Captain Carey. Has potentially been hit very hard now having to run off a 8lb higher mark but she is clearly thriving at the moment and with sprinters that counts for a lot and she has clearly improved since being in foal and if that upward curve doesnt come to an end she could play a role in this at a very good price with apprentice taking 7lb off her back and will also act on any ground! 1pt e/w Your Gifted 12/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Gutted to be working today as it looks a decent card by Yarmouth standards and I only live 30 miles away but nevermind! 3.15 Yarmouth Class 4 sprint over 6f on good ground. Ceremonial Jade takes a big drop in class today and also a massive drop in the weights but nearly all his form has been on the AW and pretty much failed to beat a rival last year and not been seen since November last year and looks easy to swerve even with the big drop. Ursula would need a career best and also with the ground drying out which is probably against him aswell. Victorian Bounty has always struggled off similar marks. Seek the Fairland is another that has dropped a long way in the weights but again all his wins have come on the AW and looks half the horse he used to be at the moment. Miss Polly Plum has been in good form this summer but is probably now paying for it with a 15lb rise in the weights. For me this is a two horse race the unexposed Long Awaited, for me he has something to prove after a below expectation at chester on handicap debut. Obviously you can forgive any horse a bad run at Chester but even so the maiden he won time before doesnt look anything special for all the second won next time out and did beat a modest field well but needs to now show this mark is not beyond him! For me Greyfriarschorista doesnt need to prove that his mark his beyond him as he is dangerously well handicapped on form he showed last year on the allweather in a listed event and then a brilliant 3rd in the Brittania handicap at royal ascot off a mark of 98, gone off the boil since then now finds himself on lowest mark and dropped markedly in trip last time out appeared to spark a revival and if that was he is dangerous to ignore off a mark of 72 over a sprint trip again! 2pt win Greyfriarschorista 4/1 hills

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 2.00 Goodwood Fiercely competitive event and nothign really stands out for me in a big way but Bikini Babe is too bigger price to ignore and must have a chance at an EW price! She has been competeing at the top level in listed and group company but has been a bitter disappointment throughout really except for a couple of good efforts as a 2yr and 3yr old but shown next to nothing this season but what form she has shown to date is when she is ridden prominently and she is ideally drawn to do just that today in stall 1 and handicapper is taking a massive chancing dropping her so quickly down to a mark of just 85 having been rated as high as 105 at peak. Considering the size of this handicap there isnt a huge amount of front runners and may just get the soft lead required for a good run off a very low weight and at 40/1 she looks massive (unfortunately missed the 50s)! 1pt e/w Bikini Babe 40/1 vc 4.50 Goodwood Another tasty looking EW race! For me Duster has been an eye catcher throughout most of his career, often front runs or is prominent and travels kindly in front and clearly came on for his first run of the season when running out comfrotable winner at Warwick up 5lb and wasnt disgraced in hot handicap at sandown off new mark and was a good 2nd behind the rejuvinated Shavansky up a 1lb for that effort and based on that effort could take hand only concern is the wide draw but may benefit from a slightly more patient ride! 1pt e/w Duster 16/1 lads

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 3.55 Redcar Persian Peril has been in good form recently and comes into this on a double penalty having won at Ayr and then followed up the next day at Musselburgh, will certainly find this tougher and form on fast ground is pretty non exsitent which is a massive worry despite a claimer take off a very useful 7lb. Petomic is also in good form but currently looks held by the handicapper. If this had been run on the AW I would be keen on Hidden Glory as he appears to be running into form but his overall strike rate is far from impressive and seems half the horse on this surface despite a much lower turf mark and for all he has been running well on turf of late he needs a strong pace and that is also not guaranteed here of a strong pace with only one confirmed front runner in I Confess and he is having his second start with new yard and chances are he may be ridden differently for a new yard. Therefore looking for horses ridden prominently could be the key to this race. Christmas Light travelled extremely well last time to suggest he was running back into form and although he had every chance in the end the softer ground is a possible excuse for not quite going on, but if building on that back on faster ground he looks potentially well treated running off the same mark again. Miss Blink is also worth considering, she is a consistent filly who won 2 handicaps over this trip in the spring, was then a little bit below form on softer ground before bouncing back to form on rattlling fast ground at Bath, she is better than the finishing position suggest having tripped about a furlong out and potentially lost momentum at vital stage can be given another chance despite another 2lb rise she looks a low class filly to follow on faster ground. 1pt win Miss Blink 7/1 lads 1pt win Christmas Light 8/1 lads 8.20 Leicester Bermondsey Bob is looking for the 3 timer here tonight but could easily be scuppered by career high mark, 3lb for last win and rather got the run of the race and was still all out and will have to take a big step forward to take this. Emiratesdotcom has been running to a similar level recently but again shaped as if a step up in trip was needed in behind Bermondsey Bob last time out when making a lot of late headway and not sure 6f on fast ground is the way forward with him for now. Volito finally got back to winning ways on penultimate start at goodwood over this trip ultimately given a peach of a ride by Hughes winning with plenty in hand it seemed before disappointing next time out off just a 5lb higher mark, that was in an appprentice race under an inexperienced apprentice and was rather weak in the market, also perhaps the good ground wasnt ideal and should appreciate this return to fast ground also the booking of Durcan is a strong booking despite im not the biggest of his at times, should get a decent pace to chase with Bermondsey Bob in the lineup and prior to disappointing last time out had been consistent so would be no surprise was he to bounce back! The other interesting runner has to be Mata Hari Blue, she has had plenty of excuses recently; never on terms back at southwell, 5f to sharp, had no chance with Psychics Dream who was an impressive winner, apprentice ride. Bounced back to something like her best last time out when only just going down to the well treated Istiqdaam. Tongue Tie is tried for the first time today and professional jockey booked for the first time in a while and although a 2lb rise in the weights makes things tougher she should also get the race run to suit. 1pt win Mata Hari Blue 9/2 vc 1pt win Volito 7/1 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 3.05 Nottingham Eastern Hills has been in reasonable form recently but that has always been on the fibresand, not always the most reliable but he did win last time out at his first try over this trip but the concern has to be he will find things happening far to fast on fast ground over this trip at Nottingham plus all turf wins have come with cut in the ground. There is plenty of front runners in this field so this should be run at a good pace which should suit Go Nani Go who finally got back on track with a much better effort. He only has 1 win to date and that was on debut and looked a useful prospect but went the wrongway until last time out when not getting the clearest run through and I feel the effort can be marked up considering how far he came back from and troubled passage and how well he travelled into the race, gets to run off the same mark again today and if the gap appears he could prove hard to beat. Baby Queen is the other one I am interested in, she looked a speedy sort last season but didnt get her head in front and I have missed her this season but watching the replay from penultimate start when she showed all her speed to get an uncontested lead and ultimately won very easily by 4 lengths, hit hard by the handicapper for that but ran even better off revised mark when going down a neck to the fast finishing Triple Dream but still well held the remainder of the field, handicapper raised her a further 3lb but should she get her usual fast start and get that vital uncontested lead she is dangerous to dismiss in the form of her life! 2pt win Baby Queen 11/4 bet365 1pt win Go Nani Go 5/1 pp 7.25 Ffos Las I feel the Millman's could have a good night here at Ffos Las with several good looking runners and Money Money Money has been running with great credit all season and has really stepped up since running over this 2mile staying trip and has seen real improvement. She was unlucky at Kempton on penultimate start when hampered at a vital stage but made amends for that next time out when a 4 length winner at Lingfield, another 6lb rise looks more than fair enough for latest effort and the way she sticks her neck out is worth so much in the staying field as not always the most genuine bunch where as she is! Markington has gone the wrong way recently but is now 3lb below last winning mark on the flat but put in a very moody display over fences earlier in the week and attitude defenetily has to be called into question at the moment. West With The Wind has 3 CD wins to his name a 100% strike rate but that is all with fences around the trip and he has turned into quite a useful looking chaser but was pulled up in the Arkle as if something was amiss and now has well being to prove after nearly 4 months off the track but does find himself on a career low mark on the flat but has only won a maiden at southwell and always well held in handicap company so probably just a watch and see type of horse this time. The main threat to Money x3 could be Salontyre who ran a decent race 3lb out of the handicap in a decent race at Ascot on penultimate start and then built on that effort next time out at Chepstow when going down by a short head to Spinning Waters, unfortunately handicapper has had his say and has put him up 2lb for that effort and this is a stronger looking race again but with only 5 starts on the flat he still has potential untapped improvement in him yet and he is a reasonable hurdler rated in the mid 120's. 2pt win Money Money Money 7/2 bet365 1pt win Salontyre 7/2 bet365 8.30 Ffos Las Penang Cinta is a temperamental sort who is generally worth opposing these days for the win purpose especially away from Brighton where she tends to run her best races. Im also not keen on Shabak Hom who looks a tricky customer often pulls hard and doesnt shape as a true stayer having travelled well despite pulling hard before finding nothing turning for home at Folkestone last time out and I am not convinced a step up in trip is needed especially as he didnt stay at his only try at this trip. Green Lightening is another horse who is generally worth opposing for win purposes for all he looks well treated these days, now 8lb below last winning mark his attitude is often questioned as he has a tendency to race lazily and can often hang in a finish. Aviso is of interest who has ran his best race this season over 1m2f in an apprentice race and is well worth a try at this trip and if that brings out any improvement he is well treated now 5lb below last winning mark. Main concern is his well being after a nasty incident at Bath a couple of weeks ago when slipping up on the bend when dueling and going off far to fast under a jockey I personally dont rate (David Evans) he was still travelling well but that was a long way out and I would like to see a much more patient ride today and I think the jockey on board today John Fahy is well worth his 3lb claim and if staying this trip he could be a threat. That said On The Feather is the one they all have to go some way to beat in my opinion she finally got her head infront last time out after a string off solid placed efforts and was a well deserved victory she is a typically consistent mare from the Millman yard again who asserted in the final furlong at Salisbury earlier in the month and ultimately looked a comfortable winner and a 3lb rise seems extremely lenient with that form holding up well with 4th place winning next time out at HQ off a 1lb lower mark. She was giving lumps of weight away that day but races on more similar terms this time against horses of her own age. Yard continue there good season and hopefully she can continue to improve. 3pt win On The Feather 5/2 bet365 1pt win Aviso 6/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 4.40 Thirsk Feel The Heat has improved recently in the first time visor but has looked very one paced for a sprinter and she may need a step back up in trip and this is a much stronger race. Caranbola won last time out over a CD she loves at Beverley but 6lb penalty may stop the follow up in a competitive race away from that course, but yard are going well so should be thereabouts. La Zamora won when we last saw her and a 3lb rise looks fair but concern is why she has been off the track for so long. Hotham has plummetted in the weights and has suggested his turn isnt far away in recent runs, needs a good true gallop to chase and should get that in a field like this although there isnt a confirmed front runner there are plenty that are prominent and have made the running in their time! He last won off a mark of 87 and in is now on a mark of just 77, effort last time was a step back in the right direction when coming from middle of the field with a good looking run before being hampered which potentially cost him monementum and if building on that he could get his head back in front! Another of interest in a field like this is Cornus who often takes several runs to come to the boil but has shaped better on recent efforts on penultimate start he finished well from off the pace and only just failed to get up, rather weak in the market next time out on a day at Pontefract when nothing was coming from behind but still ran with credit, useful apprentice continues to take off the 3lb and is well treated on best form having won off a mark of 81 last year and also has very good CD form with 5 runs and 3 wins! 1pt win Hotham 13/2 vc 1pt win Cornus 11/1 pp 6.45 Bath Epsom Salts has shaped amiss recently and looks worth opposing at the moment for all he is well treated on the pick of his form especially around Epsom. Rosewood Lad is only 1lb above last winning mark on the AW but has shown little recently and also has never shown any form on turf. Gremlin is another that is well treated on AW form now 2lb below last winning and he does have form on turf, but has looked well out of shape on recent starts when failing to beat a rival home over hurdles and then back on the flat was far to keen over a trip that was probably on the short side but that said he was still disappointing and needs to show more. Poppy Greg is still a maiden under both codes and has pretty much failed to show anything noteworthy to be honest. So by process of elimination it leaves Lastroseofsummer a long way clear of these lot, she was fit from hurdling when returning to the flat at the begginning of the month and although only just scraped home and up 6lb which on the face of it looks harsh but she and the 2nd pulled well clear of the remainder of the field by 8lengths and with such weak opposition she should be able to score off a career high mark and could still be improving with little racing for her age. 3pt win Lastroseofsummer 5/4 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 7.30 Newmarket Sir Mozart has drifted dramatically in the betting which is of course a worry with this yard but has now drifted to a backable price in my opinion. He won his last 2 starts last year one on fast ground over 6f and the other on softer going over 7f at Yarmouth. Went back there for late seasonal reappearance and finished a decent 2nd behind an unexposed sort who got a rather soft time in front this should be a truer run race with the likes of Frognal in the lineup and that should suit him and gets to run off the same mark today. The other that has to be of interest is Big Noise who has won for over 2 years now but finally showed some life last time out when fitted with the first time cheekpieces finishing well probably on the wrong part of the course that day, should again get a good toe into the race and the first time visor should have a positive effect and 7lb below last winning mark! 2pt win Sir Mozart 10/3 vc 1pt win Big Noise 6/1 lads 8.45 Musselburgh No shortage of pace in this race with several speedy front runners including Hypnosis, Ingleby Star and Cayman Fox and therefore not keen on any of those despite a few of them being in great form but because this is gonna be run at a good gallop I really fancy Argentine to improve on what he showed last time out finishing from well off the pace to finish a good second with the blinkers returned gets in off the same mark today, has slipped a long way in the weights after losing run stacks up, having last won off 72 and now runs off 56 with the blinkers retained, main concern is course form although does have bits and pieces. The other that should enjoy this well run 5f is Dispol Grand who is in great form at present having won at Thirsk on penultimate start beating the in form Royal Blade who has since gone on to win next time out off a 4lb higher mark and 2lb out of the handicap and 3rd has also ran well again off same mark. Dispol Grand then ran the next day and finished a held 2nd but probably found that coming quick enough and gets to run off the same mark today as that win was in an apprentice race and is 4lb well in here and should be there again aslong as 6 days is enough for him to recover again, has stood busy spells well before. 1pt win Argentine 7/1 bet365 1pt win Dispol Grand 4/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 3.55 Doncaster Eltheeb could still be progressing but he is becoming very unreliable and although perhaps didnt stay the trip last time out and drops back in trip could improve again but this is a much tougher race. Licence To Till is very well handicapped having won off a mark of 88 at Dundalk last year and has now dropped to 81 and did offer a little more last time probably flattered by staying on behind beaten horses but still not enough to get involved in at the moment. I am also keen to take Bourne on at 5/2 he is far to skinny. He ran a solid race in the Newton cup to finish a strong finishing 2nd, up a 1lb from that effort and returns to a shorter trip which I just feel might find him out he looked to need all of the 12f last week and if he is to defy this mark he may need stepping up further. Pass Muster might be worth taking on board at a big price, only 5 runs to date and still unexposed for all he disappointed last time out having bolted up at Beverley on penultimate start, that was off a mark of 81 disappointing next time out off a mark of 89 but handicapper quickly dropped him 2lb for that effort and has also changed yard so would be no surprise to see him bounce back back on fast ground today and with a couple of front runners in the field should ensure a true test and is clearly bred to be a stayer. The one that stands out as the main bet for the race is Easterby's Barren Brook who landed a competitive york handicap over 1m1f and won really well that date winning going away and certainly looked to have a lot more to offer, up 8lb for that effort and went back to York for another competitive race over a mile doing all his best work late on again but was still a very good 3rd up a further 2lb for that effort but steps back up in trip and that looks to be the key to him and clearly unexposed with stamina stretched at yard are in brilliant form in recent days! 1pt win Pass Muster 16/1 pp 2pt win Barren Brook 13/2 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 5.00 Newbury Speightowns Kid won extremely well over 5f at Kempton at the beginning of June and went well under a 6lb penalty back there over CD but has since failed to inspire much back on turf and now has to proof acts on turf although perhaps found plenty of racing coming too soon and has since been given a short break. Fantasy Explorer hasnt really sparkled of late often traveling reasonably well until finding little in the finish and for all he is handicapped to win races and cheekpieces didnt bring about an improvement last time he wore them. Sharpened Edge came back from a break to pick up a double but disappointed off a 4lb higher mark but handicapper might be a little bit quick to drop him 2lb but obvious concern is the presence of plenty of other front runners including Tyfos who won last time out but again but will need a career best in the presence of other front runners. This race should be run to suit Ebraam who has a good strike rate although mainly on the AW he can prove just as good on turf as he did on penultimate start off just a 2lb lower mark and is still extremely well treated on AW form and you can potentially forget his run last time out at Ascot where little got into it from off the pace despite the winner doing so, he was also involved in a nasty bump before he was perhaps ready to make his move and potentially catching him off stride but still put up a sound effort in a tough race no surprise were he to bounce back here with a true gallop guaranteed. The other that will love this fast gallop to sit behind is Your Gifted who is now in foal and is running out of her skin at the moment versatile as far as ground goes these days it seems. Ran her best race to date 2 weeks ago in a valuable race at the Curragh and clearly still finding something at the moment and for all an 8lb higher mark looks tough inform sprinters often pay there way in races like this very useful apprentice who is rapidly riding his claim out takes off a handy 3lb and she is very straightforward unlike a few of these. Yard also remain in good form at the moment. 2pt win Your Gifted 7/2 vc 1pt win Ebraam 7/1 vc

[stewartd14]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread

3.55 Doncaster Eltheeb could still be progressing but he is becoming very unreliable and although perhaps didnt stay the trip last time out and drops back in trip could improve again but this is a much tougher race. Licence To Till is very well handicapped having won off a mark of 88 at Dundalk last year and has now dropped to 81 and did offer a little more last time probably flattered by staying on behind beaten horses but still not enough to get involved in at the moment. I am also keen to take Bourne on at 5/2 he is far to skinny. He ran a solid race in the Newton cup to finish a strong finishing 2nd, up a 1lb from that effort and returns to a shorter trip which I just feel might find him out he looked to need all of the 12f last week and if he is to defy this mark he may need stepping up further. Pass Muster might be worth taking on board at a big price, only 5 runs to date and still unexposed for all he disappointed last time out having bolted up at Beverley on penultimate start, that was off a mark of 81 disappointing next time out off a mark of 89 but handicapper quickly dropped him 2lb for that effort and has also changed yard so would be no surprise to see him bounce back back on fast ground today and with a couple of front runners in the field should ensure a true test and is clearly bred to be a stayer. The one that stands out as the main bet for the race is Easterby's Barren Brook who landed a competitive york handicap over 1m1f and won really well that date winning going away and certainly looked to have a lot more to offer, up 8lb for that effort and went back to York for another competitive race over a mile doing all his best work late on again but was still a very good 3rd up a further 2lb for that effort but steps back up in trip and that looks to be the key to him and clearly unexposed with stamina stretched at yard are in brilliant form in recent days! 1pt win Pass Muster 16/1 pp 2pt win Barren Brook 13/2 bet365

Nice call with Barren Brook :clap Beat the Dhaular though!! :@

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread hahaha Cheers Stew, ran a blinder tho one perhaps for next time if price is good as not always one to run two races alike!!

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 8.35 Southwell Norcroft won over CD last time out, that was off a basement level mark in a much weaker race than this although has won off much higher marks in prime he has gone a long while before showing anything like that form and didnt achieve much last time out and meets Elusive Warrior here only 2lb worse terms for just a nose and it might just pay to side with him as he is a little bit more reliable these days. 10 of his 11 wins have come on the Fibresand and has returned to form this summer on the surface after a spell in the doldrums and therefore finds himself on a very workable mark 10lb below last winning mark and in his current form he should put in another bold bid from a plum draw in stall 1 where as Norcroft is drawn out in the car park in stall 13 far from ideal. Amtired is another that has found a liking for this surface finishing fast the last twice but they have been over a mile and I am not sure 7f is going to suit especially with his tendency to start slow. Also finds himself on a 6lb higher mark which certainly makes things tougher. Gracies Gift has won here 5 times and off higher marks but has been in awful form recently and has shown little recently to suggest that his rot is gonna end any time soon. The other that interests me is Clever Omneya who finished 3rd behind Norcroft and Elusive Warrior, a length behind those two but gets to run off the same mark so 4lb better off with Norcroft and 2lb better off with Elusive Warrior she should also strip fitter for the run for all she does go well fresh. She has shown a real liking for the surface and is reasonably lightly raced and could still have some improvement left in her yet but wide draw isnt ideal for a prominent runner but still chances. 2pt win Elusive Warrior 1pt win Clever Omneya 3.00 Catterick Couldnt touch Northern Bolt with the ground drying out rapidly across the country connections may have been caught out as all his form has come on soft ground and although did win extremely well last time out and 8lb rise wouldnt be a big problem if ground was softer but just not gonna suit. Northern Central is another at the top of the market that I am not interested in, just the 1 win from 24 starts is very worrying despite his only win coming over CD he looks held at hand by the handicapper at present despite some excuses on recent runs. Galpin Junior has to be given a chance, he has been well backed on recent starts to suggest he has been working well somewhere and has shown glimmers of hope recently, 2nd to Time Medicean reads well off a 3lb lower mark, was a tad disappointing last time out but bad draw at Beverley can often scupper chances and had been rated 108 as a juvenile and has tumbled right down to 56 with yard continueing their good summer as they always do and could just have a say in this wide open event! The other of interest is Night Trade who can be given excuses for most runs this season softer ground last time out certainly not ideal and failed to stay 7f on several tries. Does have a CD win to her name in this race last year off 2lb higher mark and should appreciate the faster ground today. 2pt win Night Trade 7/1 hills 1pt win Galpin Junior 11/2 hills

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 7.10 Windsor Mahadee has made a slow start to the season failing to beat a rival on first 2 starts but did finish much closer last time out over CD offering a lot more than he had recently, and remains well treated running off the same mark with a useful apprentice taking off a further 3lb makes him look well treated off a 6lb lower mark than his last winning mark. Fast ground ideal and with no obvious front runner in the field it is gonna pay to be handy as it often is round here anyhow so has a sound chance. Viva Vitoria continues to run well but he is 0 from 22 on turf but often needs a strong pace and does settle very well so whether this race will be run to suit is questionable. Ocean Legend also carries a similar profile as Viva having done all his winning on the AW but is 5lb below last winning mark but has shown very little in recent months since last win which is a worry. Rees Rascal is usually a reliable 3yr old and has won over CD off a 10lb higher mark and concern the handicapper is finally catching up having put a slightly below par effort back over CD on penultimate start despite finishing 2nd and was well below best at Epsom although you can forgive any horse a run there. He also seems better suited to being able to get his toe in the ground. Starwatch is worth a small saver for all I dont think there is much value in his current price but he is in fantastic form at the moment, he stormed home over a mile at Lingfield went up a fairly hefty 9lb and just scraped home on faster ground again at Lingfield over 7f ultimately on top at the line and surely the step back up to a mile is a positive move but whats puts me off a bigger bet is he is up 3lb and also loss off useful 3lb claimer means he has to race off a 6lb higher mark and a career higher mark to contend with. Rustic Deacon has made a bit of a mockery of his mark since going handicapping winning on handicap debut off a mark of 56 and followed up on a mark of 62 both on the AW over 1m2f and then scored on reappearance over CD and just got home from a positive ride by Hughes but was then a bitter disappointment at Ripon perhaps ground to testing and could easily bounce back back under Hughes and could get a soft lead in this race with a serious lack of pace and Hughes will know that and knowone rides this course better in my opinion. 1pt win Mahadee 10/1 bet365 1pt win Starwatch 7/2 bet365 2pt win Rustic Deacon 4/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 3.00 Ayr Really interesting handicap over a mile likely to be run on softish ground. There isnt an over burden of pace although there is plenty that like to be up with the pace but the only confirmed front runner is Casino Night who has been a bit hit and miss this season but did get her head back in front at Hamilton on penultimate start over 1m1f on soft ground, certainly wouldnt want ground drying out anymore over this trip and also the loss of 7lb apprentice means she is racing off a 3lb higher mark than when she was well held last time out and does tend to reserve her best for Hamilton but does have course form. Music Festival was a well held 2nd over this course over 7f although a step back in the right direction still needs to find more especially with most form coming on fast ground. Im Super Too got his head infront in a weak maiden last year then didnt build on that back in handicaps and has taken time to come to hand again this year, running potentially above his mark in a claimer before landing a handicap off a 4lb lower mark, has shown some form on softer ground aswell as faster ground but whether this race will be run to suit a hold up sort is debatable and he isnt one likely to follow up in my opinion. Swiftly Done is another that is hit and miss at times but showed a reasonable turn of foot at HQ when not getting the clearest run from the back and clearly had plenty still left at the line and a 4lb higher mark is not harsh aslong as there is a enough of a gallop he looks the better treated of the hold up horses and the Carroll yard have had a quiet spell until recently with many running back into form and Hanagan looks a strong booking aswell expect a big run! The other that interests me the most is Marjury Daw who I would like to see go from the front or certainly up with the pace, as she has been given some strange rides at times this year none more so than last time out when staying on having got behind off a 1lb lower mark today and takes a rare drop back into a class 5 event for the first time since a close 2nd back in June on soft ground and her most recent form has all come on softer ground so that shouldnt be a concern and she was a reliable sort last year and is still 5lb below last winning mark and her turn will come soon. 1pt win Marjury Daw 6/1 bet365 2pt win Swiftly Done 4/1 bet365