Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 8.10 Lingfield Not a guaranteed pace in this race but there should be a decent pace, Black Pond is from the Johnston yard and has front run before like many of the yards runners. If What and Maybe and Last Act have both been prominent before and If What is well drawn against the rail to be prominent. That should suit Fastinthestraight who clearly goes well round here off a decent pace. He has a good record on the AW winning 3 times over 1m2f and won over CD last time out with such ease a 7lb rise in the weight looks lenient considering he won so easily building upon a promising run over same CD behind Sunset Boulevard who he meets again today on worse terms but I would expect him to reverse that form with Boulevard getting first run that day I would expect Dane Oneill was pulled over the cobbles for that ride that day but made smooth work of it last time out and Boulevard has also been out of form since on turf although a good record around here is noted. Spinning Ridge has a nasty habit of popping up reguarly on the AW and is now on his last winning mark but has to prove he stays this far which he has failed to do on 3 starts over this trip. Black Pond looked a decent sort in maidens at the turn of the year on the AW but has rapidly gone the wrong way this season and hope remains that return to AW brings about a turnaround, he has also tumbled in the weights but even so he is a no bet simply because of his attitude at the moment. The one that is worth a saver bet is Adoyen Spice who is another that should be suited by a strong pace, she has a tendency to go well fresh and is now only a 1lb above last winning mark and Martin Lane takes the ride again having won on her before and has a 17% strike rate for Murphy. She also wheres the first time blinkers which may just bring out some improvement aslong as they dont spice her up too much as she can often pull hard without them. 4pt win Fastinthestraight 5/4 pp 1pt win Adoyen Spice 17/2 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 2.30 Pontefract A horrendous amount of pace in this race with several confirmed front runners and also plenty of prominent runners. I would fully expect this to be run at a very good pace and suit a hold up sort. Rain Mac is a very short priced favourite and in my opinion is well worth taking on. Having shown promise at york on handicap debut but then been off the track for nearly 2 months and possibly had problems having been a well held 8th in a competitive race, on breeding a step up in trip is a positive but would have needed to have shown a lot more last time out to be backed in this field. Lucky Windmill was an impressive winner round here over a mile last year in a maiden before going the wrong way in handicaps, dropped a long way in the weights and finally picked up a race at Hamilton again has to prove stamina for another furlong but that doesnt look a problem on last effort although that wasnt the strongest race and this looks more competitive off a 3lb higher mark and would ideally be suited with more cut in the ground than is likely. Trip The Light finally showed some promise last time out but again that wasnt the strongest race compared to this and the presence of plenty of other front/prominent runners is off putting here. Pass Muster was well backed last time out and dont think it was because I tipped him up last time lol! I wrote this last time out; Pass Muster might be worth taking on board at a big price, only 5 runs to date and still unexposed for all he disappointed last time out having bolted up at Beverley on penultimate start, that was off a mark of 81 disappointing next time out off a mark of 89 but handicapper quickly dropped him 2lb for that effort and has also changed yard so would be no surprise to see him bounce back back on fast ground today and with a couple of front runners in the field should ensure a true test and is clearly bred to be a stayer. Was badly hampered that day and wasnt given a hard race and therefore can be given another chance especially now having been dropped a further 1lb and also a useful apprentice takes off a further 3lb. Should get a race run to suit and if gets the gaps could have another chance at a big price. War Poet is another with a chance still potentially unexposed. He won at first try over this trip in handicap in May off a mark of 74 before running a decent race off a 8lb higher mark, was then hit with a further 4lb and was ultimately outclassed in the Old Newton Cup but handicapper giving him a chance reducing his mark 3lb and Tudhope takes back the ride and this looks a lot easier and will enjoy a strongly run race, The main one for me is Hong Kong Island who has improved for his new yard this season, he was only just mowed down late on behind Berling over CD who looks a very useful horse somehow gets to run off same mark which looks very lenient and useful apprentice takes off another 3lb today and he could still be improving ahead of the handicapper right now. Appears to go on fast ground aswell as some with some cut so no concerns there and course record is very impressive with 2 wins from 3 visits here. 1pt win War Poet 9/1 1pt win Pass Muster 25/1 vc 3pt win Hong Kong Island 5/1 hills

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 6.50 Kempton Not the most inspiring handicap on the AW but does have a couple of runners I am interested in! There is no obvious front runner but plenty have front run in the past including Pennfield Pirate who might be able to pinch a soft lead. He ran a good race on seasonal debut and was well backed at southwell last time out over a furlong further but ultimately kept on at the one pace and should be better suited to kemptons surface and further step up in trip looks a positive for all the breeding doesnt suggest so. Yard remains in good form and perhaps still has room for improvement yet. The other that is also unexposed is Ministry who could improve past a few of these in time, he is a 3yr old recieving a handy allowance still late in the season like this may just tell, he ran his best race to date when only just failing over CD, only3lb higher for that run which had plenty of promise, failed to land a blow next time out back on turf but the return to this trip and the return to polytrack offer hope of an improved run! 2pt win Pennfield Pirate 1pt win Ministry 3.45 Musselburgh The Mel Brittian yard goes through spells when there horses run above themselves and they appear to be going through a spell like that at the moment Carragold has won 2 of his last 3 starts but now finds himself on a career high mark under a penalty and the race last time out was extremely weak for the grade and the form looks suspect. Mangham is another that has been in good form this season and has won off much higher marks but hsi level of consistency isnt what it has been and is no sure bet to repeat recent efforts and he was also a well held 2nd last time out to suggest he is probably held at the moment. I am surprised to see Law To Himself such a big price compared to Carragold, yards horses are starting to turn the corner and running right upto there best right now and he ran a decent race when second last time out behind an unexposed winner. He has ran races off marks a little higher than this and been placed and now with the yard going great guns he might just get himself back on track in this slightly lesser grade than last time out. 2pt win Law To Himself 5/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 3.15 Carlisle Doc Hay has perhaps had some excuses on recent runs but that said he potentially has gone over the top having rapidly rised in the weights and had plenty of runs in a short period. Saucy Brown has returned to form recently with a couple of wins in claimers and also a good win in a competitive handicap at york on penultimate start then ran under a penalty at Goodwood in stewards cup consolation race finishing a reasonable 5th up a further 1lb today and this softer ground is not ideal and just signs over the past week that the Nicholls yard arent quite firing right now. Verinco is usually reliable but the presence of other fronts runners here is off putting and his tendency to find one or two too good as he never looks as game as others and isnt exactly a battler these days and only knows one way of doing things and looks up against it in this field. Captain Scooby has to race a 1lb out of the handicap but still holds solid claims in a race that is likely to be run to suit and showed a return to form last time out when staying on from off the pace and that form is working out well with both the winner and second winning since, he has now dropped 3lb below his last winning mark and has form on ground with some cut! The main bet has to be Kevin Ryans Arganil who is better known as and AW horse in his prime winning listed races on the AW and did pick up a weak race for the grade at Southwell when winning off a 9lb higher mark, all best turf form comes on ground with cut and has shown he is still capable of winning again on turf with his close effort last time out only just failing to get up when the winning got first run, could easily make amends today aslong as this is a strongly run race off a 3lb higher mark but effectively only 1lb higher with useful apprentices 5lb claim! 2pt win Arganil 7/2 hills 1pt win Captain Scooby 17/2 hills

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 8.00 Folkestone Just a quick one, Straboe was given a very strange ride last time out taken across to the stands side rail at Nottingham while the remainder of the field stayed down the favoured middle of the track, god knows why Carson did this but needless to say he finished second last in a competitive low grade race. This looks a lot easier and he had shown a glimmer of hope he was returning to form the time before last when staying on from the rear, and although all his best form is on the AW he has won on turf and is 3lb below his last AW winning mark and with the race likely to be run to suit with Miss Polly Plum a confirmed speed ball he could just figure! 2pt win Straboe 11/2 hills

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 5.15 Hamilton Awful looking handicap with most of these badly out of form despite that the top two in the market still look value against the rest of the field. Record Breaker has long been on a downward spiral and despite being well handicappws has shown next to nothing recently. Hamilton is wel suited to front runners especially when the going turns soft like today and I would fully expect Sharp Soveriegn to go off in front today in this field, and has been in consistent form recently and certainly suggests he can win a race off this sort of mark only just failing to out battle Lucky Windmill last time out over this course over 11F goes a furlong further today but and a 1lb higher mark but should still be capable of running his race in this poor event. Also has a very good record here with 2 wins from 10 and many placed efforts around here. The favourite comes from Johnston yard Jeu De Vivre won here on soft ground over 1m3f at end of June and has run well since then and still finds herself only 3lb above last winning mark and actually 1lb ahead of the handicapper today after a good second at Thirsk last time out over this trip and if repeating that effort could be hard to beat in this modest field. 2pt win Sharp Soveriegn 3/1 bet365 2pt win Jeu De Vivre 15/8 vc 5.30 Southwell Newby Lodge won last time out 2 days ago at Brighton over this trip but but doesnt look one to be getting involved in showing that attitude is still a problem in the finish and certainly didnt win by enough to suggest a 6lb penalty would be easy to overcome! Belle Boleyn is closely related to the useful fibresand horse Beau Fighter which offers hope on fibresand debut. Yard not had the greatest season but they have had a few winners recently which is a lot better form than when she was last seen when something appeared amiss. She first caught my eye last year at Brighton when clearly not handling the track but staying on strongly in the finish and if ever able to build on that she has a race in her, she is 3lb below that run and has had a break since last run to suggest something was amiss! Well drawn aswell today in stall 1. The one with course form that most interests me is Ruth Carr's Light The City, he has turned a bit of a regular round here and often runs his race around here. Won over 1m6f on last visit around here and won in very good style 4lb higher now for that win and signs he was returning to form last time out at Beverley and with the switch back to fibresand could just be the key for another win. 1pt win Belle Boleyn 8/1 lads 2pt win Light The City 5/1 bet365 7.50 Epsom George Baker looked a useful 2yr old but failed to ever build on that promise until recently when finally taking a handicap off a mark of 57, and has since been on a good run winnign for the 3rd time at HQ in a decent event, 4lb rise in the weights doesnt looks overharsh and could continue to progress and move back up to his opening mark which was 83. He also won the ladies charity race at glorious goodwood under inexperienced rider with great ease to suggest he is just in the form of his life right now despite this stronger field he should get a strongly run race which will suit. 2pt win George Baker 11/2 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 2.40 Sandown This field has been desimated by non runners but still leaves a few of the more interesting runners in the field for me. Italian Tom is very hit and miss these days for all he has a reasonable strike rate but was never really going an inch last time out and that was off putting, does have some form on soft ground over CD off this mark but most form has come on AW or fast ground. Atlantic Cycle ran a blinder in claiming company on penultimate start but failed to build upon that back in handicap company and much more is gonna be needed in this race and I suspect he needs fast ground aswell. Triple Dream has won on soft ground 2 years ago but has been well held since everytime he has run on ground with some cut in recent times and that is massively off putting despite only going down by the smallest of margins last time out off a 1lb higher mark and he is actually 3lb ahead of the handicapper but ground is a major concern. Both Pose and Torres Del Paine dont have any form on soft ground turf. That therefore leaves you with Go Nani Go who had threatened a return to form recently before getting back on the scoreboard last time out winning with ease over a reasonable form, only a 3lb rise in the weight looks fair having been rated as high as 86 having won a maiden on debut on softish ground, will need them to go a good clip in front but I would fully expect that in this field with Triple Dream and Atlantic Cycle in the field. 2pt win Go Nani Go 11/4 vc 6.45 Wolverhampton Rainy Night ran away with a race earlier in the week on turf but has never shown any form like that before and that is the concern despite having form around here and on the face of it a 6lb penalty looks lenient but his consistency is a major worry in this field against more reliable sorts. Colourbearer looks to have an outstanding chance on paper for the Milton Bradley yard having gone close on 2 recent tries, most notably a nose behind the inconsistent rogue but potentially well handicapped Pinball on penultimate start before being hampered last time out at Yarmouth before staying on eye catchingly, gets to run off the same mark and Fallon is a very eye catching booking having not ridden for the yard in the last 5 years and if repeating two latest efforts should take all the beating. Another that has improved recently and if taking to the AW could be thereaboutsin the finish is I Got You Babe who has recently ran out two good seconds on soft and heavy ground a further 1lb lower in the weights and apprentice takes off a handy 3lb, should get a strong pace to chase here. That said there are several CD horses in this field that often run there best races here and a horse you can never forget around Wolverhampton is Almaty Express who is a bit of a standing dish around here with 64 runs and 14 wins and many placed efforts. He won over CD at beginning of July when making all to scrape home is 3lb higher for that win but Julie Burke takes off 5lb and is well drawn to go from the front again and is the only confirmed front runner in the field with just Riflessione likely to take him on for lead perhaps he should go well. 1pt win Almaty Express 12/1 hills 1pt win I Got You Babe 8/1 hills 3pt win Colour Bearer 3/1 bet365 9.20 Wolverhampton Not an overbundance of pace in this race with Colonel Sherman the most likely front runner and could get a soft time of it in front, he has returned to form recently in claiming and selling company over CD and now found himself racing 5lb ahead of the handicapper and the booking of Fallon is eye catching and record generally on the AW very positive and should be thereabouts. Keplers Law is the other possible pace angle and will just depends as to whether they push on with him, he is a typical Precott handicap blot, no shows in maidens last year stepped up markedly in trip on handicap debut and bolted up, made to work a bit harder last time out under a 6lb penalty and a further 6lb today makes life tougher again also the question of no AW form aswell yet and the tendency for Prescott's horses like this to just drop out quickly and at such a short price I dont fancy him. Straversjoy can never be forgotten around here with nearly a 50% strike rate 5 wins from 11 runs around here, has been running ok on lower turf mark this summer before clearly not handling fibresand last time out, dropped 2lb for that effort and is now only 1lb higher than last win over CD tactically versatile aswell and the decent apprentice takes a handy 3lb off her back. 1pt win Colonel Sherman 5/1 lads 1pt win Straversjoy 9/1 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 3.15 Kempton This looks a really weak race with several of these trying the trip for the first time and also several failing to beat a rival in recent runs. The current favourite Rio Tinto looks well worth opposing at current 7/2 price, didnt beat much last time out and that was over a mile now stepping up in trip and unlikely to get such a soft lead in a higher grade here off a 5lb higher mark and is not one to have much faith in having been very hit and miss on his few runs to date. Height Of Summer might be worth some interest on handicap debut for Chris Wall. Yard had a quiet season but recently there have been signs of a bit of turn of fortunes recently and this horse improved when switched to the AW surface at lingfield last time out when only beaten 2 lengths staying on late, a slightly more positive ride might see him step up on that effort and a mark of 69 doesnt look unmanageable aslong as that wasnt a flash in the pan. The one that interests me at a bigger price is Striding Edge who has a very good record on the AW 3 wins and 6 placed efforts on 20 starts. Slightly disappointing over a mile around here last time out after a short break last week, hopefully will come on for the run and only had 3 runs at this trip resulting in form figures of 233 potentially unexposed at this trip and could be open to improve and potentially well treated on old form 9lb below last winning mark, wide draw is a slight concern. 2pt win Height Of Summer 5/1 hills 1pt e/w Striding Edge 20/1 hills 7.50 Windsor Willow Dancer has been in good form recently but has to prove he has the stamina for this trip which will be the first time he has tried this since he was a 3yr old when he didnt get the trip. Kens Girl is a bit of a mud lover and has won over CD twice including this season on soft ground, but will need a career best effort and the presence of other front runners is off putting. Moynahan is sure to get a race run to suit and has often ran well and looked unlucky but awful strike rate is enough to put me off. Miss Bootylishes is another that has been in good form recently but is another that has to prove stamina over this trip and a mile has looked to stretch her at times. Colincas Lad is another front runner in this field and is the one that I am most interested in despite being 3lb out of the weights here, he is a rapidly improving 9yr old who hasnt had much racing for his age, was a clear cut winner by 4lengths over CD last time out in an apprentice event that was his 3rd win on the bounce, goes unpenalised except for being 3lb out of the handicap but Rossie Jessop who rode last time takes off a further 2lb so effectively only a 1lb higher and may have not stopped improving just yet. The Cayterers comes from the Carroll yard who are having a fine time of things at the moment and Rual De Silva looks well worth his 7lb claim which takes him 14lb below his last winning mark, has been in good form over hurdles recently and was beaten far last time out on the flat and could be ready to strike again soon but so well handicapped and good record around here 8 runs with 3 wins cannot be ignored. Galiando is of obvious interest with only 3 runs to date, winning a maiden at Goodwood on debut before running 2 good efforts in handicaps only just failing to get up in the dieing strides when only beaten a neck should appreciate the step up in trip and clearly on a workable mark and open to more improvement yet with a guaranteed pace to chase in this race. 3pt win Galiando 9/4 hills 1pt win Colincas Lad 10/1 boyles 1pt win The Cayterers 12/1 boyles

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 4.20 Catterick Plenty of pace on in this race with several front runners in the field and very few hold up sorts that can pick the pieces up here which would suggest the winner might be one of the ones that is just happy to sit behind a likely furious pace. Royal Blade has enjoyed a good season to date, but handicapper does look to slowly be catching him with another 4lb rise for latest 2nd looks harsh also concern of the yard form which has been pretty abmissmal recently. Nicholls are another yard going through a quiet time although have had a couple of winners mixed in with plenty of disappointments but they run an interesting runner in this field in Regency Art who hasnt been seen since Oct 09 when winning a 6f maiden on fast ground in good style just tracking the pace, didnt beat much that day is a concern but opening handicap mark of 65 is a very workable one and surely has more to offer than most in this field if wound up to go. Clearly had problems since being sold for 50,000gns to current connections but is the sort the yard usually do well with and get a couple of wins out at some point in their career and he looks a very big price at 18s. Mr Wolf won this race last year but has failed to win this year and hasnt gone with much zest this season except on penultimate start when only just failing over hsi beloved Ponte but bombed out as favourite last time out and looks worth opposing at the moment. North Central has been in reasonable form recently but only one win from 25 runs is very worrying at a short price and doesnt look particularly well treated having been creeping up the weights for placed efforts. The other that interests me is Last Sovereign who won last time out at Ponte over 6f on fast ground, probably wouldnt want any more juice in the ground but the weather looks dry for the rest of the day. He beat Cornus very easily last time out who went extremely close yesterday which makes that form look solid and 6lb penalty still makes him look well treated on his best form having won off marks in the high 70's and with apprentice taking off a handy 3lb looks a good bet with his profile of often holding his form and has won back to back before. 1pt win Regency Art 18/1 boyles 2pt win Last Sovereign 11/2 bet365 7.20 Kempton Interesting handicap which is a qualifier for the London Mile which often attracts a reasonable field. Junkett is an unexposed sort who went close over CD last week but he now looks as though he is a horse that needs a race to fall into his hands which is a concern to me when this race lacks pace in my opinion with just one confirmed front runner in the field so at 4/1 looks plenty skinny enough and worth opposing. Tewin Wood is that one confirmed front runner who could get a soft lead in this field which is when he is dangerous and is well drawn to attack from the front in stall 3 and returned to form last time out at Chester in an amateur race when again getting a soft lead, that was probably on testing enough ground returns to this quicker surfaces will suit and has a good AW record with 4 wins and 3 placed efforts from 14 runs including 2 CD wins, last of those was off a 6lb lower mark but has since won again on turf on fast ground at yarmouth off a 3lb lower mark so potentially still going the right way and capable of winning again. Another that is likely to be up with the pace is Satwa Laird and he will need to be up there as he seriously lacks a turn of foot but often travels well into a race. He is 7lb below his last winning mark on turf and although hard to assess exactly what he achieved in a 5 runner handicap at Yarmouth last time out when finishing 2nd it was pleasing to the eye perhaps racing on wrong part of course but did beat the rest of the field quite comfortably and if that wasnt a flash in the pan and he can build on that he surely has to go close again. 1pt win Satwa Laird 9/1 hills 1pt win Tewin Wood 7/1 hills 9.10 Wolverhampton Several front runners in this field and that makes me wanna oppose the current favourite Sopra Nad who rather got the run of the race at Southwell recently for all he won easy the return to polytrack and also wide draw are other negatives aswell as the other front runners likely in the field. There are 2 unexposed sorts line up in this field and they both offer value in my opinion which is often unusual with such sorts. The Haynes yard run Conrete Jungle who didnt offer much in 3 maidens over 7f but stepped up on those efforts on handicap debut at Carlisle on softish ground over a mile and was well backed to do better aswell, perhaps the soft ground can be an excuse but even so it was a promising handicap debut, gets to run off the same mark tonight on AW debut and still plenty of scope for improvement from a good draw tonight. The unexposed sort is West Side for the Noseda yard who dont usually mess around with class 6 handicaps on the AW unless they feel they have a chance. Looked to want further in maidens and stepped upto 7f on handicap and AW debut to finish 4th again but plenty of promise having been slowly away he was getting there at the finish and if he gets away on terms tonight he must build on that effort off a 1lb lower mark draw could have been kinder again tonight but with his hold up tactics might not be such an issue and with a race likely to be run to suit he should go well with the yard in great form aswell. 1pt win Concrete Jungle 8/1 bet365 3pt win West Side 5/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 3.30 Newmarket This race looks priced up as if it is going to be run on fast ground and looking at weather forecasts it certainly isnt going to be that and therefore it is perhaps worth taking some early prices with the BOG firms just incase the rain doesnt turn up! Kazbow hasnt always looked the most straightforward at times but when he does find his form he is usually reliable but another 2lb rise for latest 2nd makes life tougher again and all form is on fast ground and certainly not gonna get an easy time of things up front in this field. Sherman Mccoy finally got back on the winning trail last time out over 1m6f at Salisbury rather got the run of the race but the yard do believe he was going to make a useful handicapper before setback last year but all his best form is on fast ground. Mister Angry is a capable performer on his day but has never won back to back wins and tends to be very unpredictable and therefore generally opposable. Regal Park has form on soft ground for Noseda last year but has been running to a similar level all starts this season for new yard and looks held by the handicapper currently and this race is no easier. Plenty of front runners in this field and the likelihood of softer ground stamina could be a good thing in this field and therefore My Arch looks a big price, this trip perhaps isnt far enough but has won over a 1f shorter. Recently took advantage of a drop in the weights to win of his last winning mark at Ponte over 2m2f, never in the race when racing in the Northumberland plate similar story in Goodwood Stakes, this is an easier assignment and only 3lb higher has won over this course before. Another that interests me with the likely forcast cut is Danvilla who is turning out to be a smart stayer, good second to the run away Keys on penultimate start, then went on to win off a 2lb higher mark over this course over a furlong further, perhaps got a soft time of it up front but he remains unexposed and open to more improvement and a 5lb rise doesnt look harsh having won well. Another unexposed runner is Manifestation who appeared to relish the step up in trip last time out to run out a confident winner, not had much racing and clearly has more to offer. The only 3yr old in the field he is recieving lumps of weight off most of these and that ought to tell at this stage of the season in this grade. 4lb rise is defenetily not excessive main concern is the ground although the win did come on good ground, closely related to the useful Sergeant Cecil who has plenty of form on ground with cut which offers hope! 2pt win Manifestation 4/1 VC 1pt win My Arch 20/1 vc 1pt win Danvilla 8/1 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 7.35 Hamilton Good looking staying handicap over 1m4f on softish ground which could be the undoing of several of these runners who are in good form in my opinion. Butler hasnt stood much racing for a 4yr old and only one win to date off a 10lb lower mark and has run well since but that has crept him up the weights further and has failed to make much impression on ground softer than good which is why I am keen to oppose at current price. Antigua Sunrise returned to form recently and does have some form on soft ground but main concern is handicapper felt fit to rise her 4lb for last time out 2nd and has always struggled off marks in the 80's so perhaps is worth opposing. Hong Kong Island has really improved this season but signs recently the handicapper is catching up with him now and despite an apprentice taking off 5lb he is still 7lb above last winning mark and best form has come on fast ground. Shernando looks Johnston's first string on jockey bookings but but again his 2 wins on turf have both come on fast ground and only just scraped home last time out and although just a 2lb rise he might be up against it in such a competitive race and on soft ground. For me at the prices Johnstons second string looks the better bet, Becausewecan he has dropped to his last winning mark and that win came over this course over a furlong further and although there are a few front runners in the field but if getting to the front he could prove hard to pin back on ground that is to suit. Bothy is probably the most interesting in this field despite being off the track for over 3 months. He made into a very useful Hurdler last year finishing 2nd in Cheltenham's Coral Cup (Grade 3) and also finished 2nd in several other Graded events and earnt himself a mark of 140 and if able to bring that improvement back onto the flat he has to be dangerous off a mark of 82 with apprentice taking off a further 5lb. All form is on soft ground and therefore any further rain would be welcome! 2pt win Bothy 8/1 vc 1pt win Becausewecan 20/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 4.40 Southwell Wouldnt usually be betting in AW maidens so early as this but Scrooby Doo might just be a value bet should the Noseda runner be priced up skinny. Scrooby Doo has had 4 runs to date with 3 on the fibresand and all 3 have been promising runs and proving he is perfectly at home on the surface which cannot be said for many of these as it is very much an unknown. Well drawn to get to the front from stall 3 and should appreciate the return to 6f on breeding. The main threat will be the Noseda runner with the yard in such hot form but would rather back something with course form. 2pt win Scrooby Doo 6.10 Southwell Competitive little race for a Southwell handicap. Record Breaker has long been regressing although he is well handicapped on best form he just looks worth opposing. Native Colony has improved with the step up in trip but they have been extremely weak races and the race he won last time out looks awful a 5 runner maiden handicap and a 6lb rise looks extremely harsh on the face of it and will need to improve further and unproven on surface. Miereveld comes from a yard that does extremely well with its runners around here and has won over this course but over a much shorter trip and off a low mark of 46, 13 lengths adrift of Sennockian Storm on penultimate start when 2nd over 1m4f but questionable that stamina gave out and a further step up in trip doesnt look a bright move and will need to find a lot more off a mark of 58. All My Heart offered enough on handicap debut to suggets he is capable of winning a race at some point of this mark but also looks to need further than this and doesnt look the yards typical handicap blot and perhaps others better treated at the moment. May Contain Nuts is closely related to the very useful Southwell specialist Lucky Punt who is a prolific scorer round here in these colours. Got off the mark last time out at Salisbury over this trip on soft ground winning very comfortably. Race appears to be working out well and a 5lb rise looks lenient especially if he handles the fibresand aswell as his brother. The other interesting runner has to Trojan Gift who has shown little in last 2 runs but has run 3 times around here and all 3 times ran really good races, only win to date came 3 starts ago in first time cheekpieces over this course and 2f further beating the useful benchmark Bring Sweets. Only 3lb higher than that win and although ran abmissmal last 2 starts on turf could easily bounce back returned to fibresand and sporting the first time visor today. 2pts win May Contain Nuts 1pt win Trojan Gift 8.25 Wolverhampton For an AW race this is full with front runners is gonna be run at a break neck pace probably and come behind runners are often favoured around here and that should suit a couple of these. Tarooq was a gritty winner last time out at Kempton over a mile but is likely to be up with the pace and that might catch him out in this field if getting burnt up in the front and a 4lb rise and had previously failed to see this trip out which is another worry and not one to be taking at a short price in my opinion. Satwa Pearl hasnt been seen for nearly 3 months when making a very promising debut for this stable having came over from france. She was very slowly away and made up a lot of ground to chase home the impressive Piano who has been holding her own in Listed company recently and although rised 2lb for that effort could easily be a handicap blot if breaking on terms and ability to handle surface not questioned having won on AW at Deauville earlier in the year. Trainer and jockey both firing in the winners and will appreciate a truly run race. Another that will also appreciate the strong pace could be Striding Edge who keeps promising to return to form, has plenty of form on the AW and showed real signs of promise last time out at Kempton when staying on too late in a race which wasnt really run to suit as horses up with the pace did best, dropped another 3lb and now 12lb below last winning mark, yard finally had a winner and just maybe yard is coming back into form after a very quiet time of things. 2pt win Satwa Pearl 10/3 pp 1pt win Striding Edge 10/1 pp

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 6.35 Carlisle No obvious front runner in this line up although Tamareen front runned last time out on only second start for Fahey, that did seem to bring some improvement but main concern is handicapper has had his say and put him up 3lb for that effort and also all form has come on fast surfaces and bombed out when tried on soft ground before. Icy Blue has improved recently to win his last 2 races on soft surfaces, a 4lb rise in the weights certainly makes life harder and also drying ground would be against him and for that reason is probably worth taking on. Fast Shot looks a very solid bet, set to race off a 5lb higher mark from Saturday. He has been consistent all summer and appears to be slowly improving with racing, first try at 7f last time out was a brilliant effort on first try at 7f only just failing to beat another rapidly improving 3yr old by a short head. They finished well clear of the remainder of the field and could still have more to offer. 3pt win Fast Shot 2/1 bet365 3.50 Folkestone Not the strongest looking race on paper but I am keen on a couple of these. No obvious front runner other than perhaps Miss Chamanda who has front run before and may get a soft time of it and looks well handicapped on best form having won off a mark of 80, not seen for nearly 2 years until recently, could easily come on for that run and handicapper taking a chance dropping her a further 3lb and now 8lb lower than last winning mark, ground no concern and Fallon a strong booking. The other that interests me is Go Nani Go who also looks well treated on best form and has come back to form this term. Winning on penultimate start off a 3lb lower mark. Failed to build on that last time out off revised mark failing to settle and perhaps also finding the ground too slow, had been rated in the 80's as a 2yr and 3yr old but went the wrong way but if bouncing back to his best again he remains well treated. 2pt win Miss Chamanda 7/2 vc 1pt win Go Nani Go 7/2 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 9.20 Kempton A wide open handicap over 1m3f with a decent field for the AW. Beaubrav has done all his winning on the AW but yet to win here in 4 runs, poor efforts of a much lower turf mark are also off putting as has shown some form on turf before. Greylami goes well round here and ran a good race when last seen finishing promisingly having been hampered but has never gone well fresh and will need a career best. Direct Answer came back from well over a year off last time out to win a Folkestone maiden over 10f. Didnt look to beat much that day and therefore handicap with battle hardy sorts could find him out especially as he held his head very high and looked slightly reluctant to go on when ask which I wouldnt want to see in a competitive race like this. Saint Helena won last time out but a 3lb rise for tough win last time out is enough and also looked to need every yard of 12f and may find this 11f sharp enough on that evidence. Haylaman won aswell last time out at Newmarket in a race that really isnt working out that great at all with several of the horses behind being well held next time out in weaker races aswell a couple of them. 4lb rise but still potential to improve and will need to in this field has won on AW so that isnt a worry, but with so many improving sorts and wide draw is perhaps worth missing this time. Fallan factor has probably come into the price of Spensley but I dont feel you can leave him out, Fallon is riding brilliantly at the moment and Fanshawe yard are in great form aswell at the moment. Spensley has a good record around here with 4 runs and 3 wins, all the wins have come over a furlong further which is my only slight concern but has won over a furlong shorter on turf. Fallon rode him all 3 of those wins and last time he was here he won super easily eased down beating Iron Condor, 6lb higher today but bounced back from some lesser efforts last time out at Leicester in a race which was run against him with the winner making all and little getting in it from the rear. Has to go close again if repearing that. Scamperdale is another interesting runner returned to the AW after some lesser efforts on turf recently has over a 50% win/place strike rate on the AW and at 16/1 that is far too big. Only 2lb above last winning mark and 3lb lower when running a brilliant 2nd at Lingfield. Yard had a winner this week and could easily bounce back. 3pt win Spensley 9/4 pp 1pt e/w Scamperdale 16/1 boyles

[chris34]

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 5.10 Bath Not the strongest race of the day but one of the more interesting ones on a desperate day. Locum is relatively consistent but doesnt win very often and although on a good mark having won off a 7lb higher mark last year, but tends to reserve his best for Yarmouth it seems and meets 2 inform and potentially well treated horses in this field. Kathleen Kennet is another mare in foal who appears to be in the form of her life right now having won very easily last time out, effectively 9lb higher here today under penalty of course with her being in foal it would be no surprise to see her defy that despite her being an 11yr old and that being her first win but for that reason I am keen to taker her on as she is likely to be a very short price. Into The Wind has been left with a lot to do on last 2 starts, but has really found some form over this trip. The first time was in a seller doing very well. The last race was a handicap at Warwick with Kathleen Kennet back in 3rd only just failing to get up having looked an all over winner a furlong out, 5lb better off with Kathleen on that running and although handicapper has raised her 4lb for that effort she perhaps more room for improvement than Kathleen and looks a likely good price against an older sort! 3pt win Into The Wind

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 7.20 Kempton No obvious front runner in this field so wouldnt expect that strong gallop, Iron Step has been known to front run and is still relatively lightly raced but encounters this surface for the first time and hasnt been at his best on recent starts and still 2lb above last winning mark. Oetzi is another that can be up with pace, yet to really prove he truly stays the mile and again encounters the surface for the first time. Catchanov has won his last 2 starts around here, making it 3 from 5 and 3 from 4 over CD and clearly relishes a trip around here, can be versatile as far as tactics and can race prominently. Appeared to win with a bit to spare last time out and although up 4lb should go well again off career high mark and well drawn to be prominent in stall 2. The other that interests me is Fanshawes runner who again legs up Fallon and this team have enjoyed a good time of things recently and yard form is very good and although Ferruccio is yet to win a race he looks capable of winning something and soon. Gone close last 2 starts in maiden company and even closer last time out on AW debut in a handicap, 2nd to Catchanova by half a length last time out and is 7lb better off with that rival tonight. 2pt win Catchanova 1pt win Ferruccio 8.20 Kempton Iron Condor won on turf for the first time last time out at Yarmouth over 1m3+f. He won with plenty in hand obviously that was off a much lower turf mark, but clearly fresh from a break and in tip top form and returned to his favourite venue he could well be very hard to beat off a career high mark. He is 2 from 7 over course and been placed another 4 times and is 2 from 5 over CD. Draw has put him out wide but with his hold up tactics that isnt a major concern and a good pace should be assured with Becausewecan and with the keen going Warneford in first time blinkers and Dynamic Drive likely to push the pace. 2pt win Iron Condor 3/1 boyles

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 5.10 Yarmouth Smallish field but this should be run at a true gallop with Bronze Beau a confirmed speed ball and Clear Ice and Soap Wars both likely to force the pace, all 3 look high enough in the weights and worth taking on. Secret Millionaire has been a major disappointment this season and too me is now proving rather expensive to follow and often flatters to decieve and has just maybe not trained on this season. Ryan Style is 4lb higher than his last win and although has won off a 2lb lower mark he has simply just been held by the handicapper recently and will need to find something extra today. Midnight Raider comes from the Chris Wall yard who have had a very poor season to date but the yard had a few winners recently and generally horses are running well, he finally got his head in front last time out in a race that just fell apart, raced well off a furious pace and the race was rather gifted to him and clearly relished the cut in the ground, that form looks suspect and although could be open to further improvement off just a 3lb higher mark I couldnt be taking 4/1 on him. For me Lujeani looks a standout bet at 9/2, despite not winning this year he has been running well in the right conditions he needs a strong pace to come off and should get that today and gaps should appear in this small field, last win came off a 4lb lower mark last summer at newmarket but several placed efforts this season back at the July course and even more so the 3rd place in a competitive 21 runner field at doncaster last week prove he is capable of being competitive off this sort of mark will be suited to fast ground and with strong winds likely again his stamina could pay dividends (all wins have come over 6f despite all recent form coming over 5f) 3pt win Lujeanie 9/2 pp 5.40 Yarmouth Just a brief one here, this one comes from my notebook. Flame Of Hestia could prove a frustrating sort having found one too goo again last time out but I am convinced she is better than a 69 rated handicapper. She cost 1,000,000 so someone else clearly though she was better than that aswell and is a wel bred mare. Showed plenty of promise as a 2yr old, missed the whole of last season but back this season with a promising 2nd on return, prob found ground against her next time when a beaten favourite but did little wrong last time out when racing over CD on fast ground easily held by the potentially very well treated on turf Iron Condor but she beat the rest of the field very comfortably indeed and although a further 4lb rise makes life tougher again with only her 7th start she is open to further improvement yet and yard enjoying a very good spell at the moment. Epic is likely to be a favourite for this race but looks well worth taking on, he is very well treated on his best form last year and was a comfortable winner last time on polytrack but that was a dreadfully weak race and a 4lb rise is fair enough but has been a typical Johnston horse this season hardly beating a rival until last time out and wouldnt expect a repeat if I am honest. 2pt win Flame Of Hestia

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 2.50 Folkestone Not the classiest race to get involved in but there is a runner I have been keen on in the past running in it. Top weight Lord Of The Reins is starting to look dangerously well handicapped but has become better known for his AW exploits and its a long time since he showed much worthwhile form on the turf. Did win 2 AW handicaps in spring but failed to build on them with new yard and since been given a break and doesnt jump out in this bunch as clearly has plenty to prove back on the turf. The Strig is another that his only win has come on the AW in a January maiden so clearly not the strongest and has never looked like winning another race since failing to beat nearly every rival home this season. Bateleur has become rather inconsistent and doesnt have the best record when a race is run at a dawdle and with only one front runner in the field he is unlikely to get the strong pace required. Know No Fear has done all his winning over sprint trips (except one win over a mile on fibresand) and hasnt tackled a sprint trip for some time and has slipped a long way in the weights and looks well handicapped on AW form yard can ready them and can ready them to land a touch. And very useful apprentice takes off a further 5lb and although has no great record fresh this race is weak. Avonvalley comes from the Peter Grayson yard that generally struggle for winners and although she seemed to do remarkebly well last time out off a basement level mark of 45 that was on fast ground, although has won on G/S a 3lb rise and the tendency for Graysons runners to bounce is very off putting despite her looking well treated on best form. Cloth Ears is the other interesting runner in this field, she is the only front runner and could get a very soft lead in this field and she showed some form when ridden from the front last time on soft ground, and any form has come with cut in the ground so that also offers hope, dropped another 3lb in the handicap and might just get soft time of things. 2pt win Cloth Ears 1pt win Know No Fear

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 4.55 Goodwood A good looking middle distance handicap likely to be run on ground on the soft side. Tameen is likey to prove very hard to beat and looks good value at 9/4 in my opinion for all it is a short price in such a big field. She looks a filly who is going somewhere having bolted up over CD 10 days ago by 8 lengths, runs under 6lb penalty today but still 5lb well in compared to new mark and clearly relishes soft ground and plenty of improvement still likely at such an early stage in her career you can forgive her the blip in between two recent wins when she was bumped early on and never travelled after. The other interesting runner for me is Blimey O'riley who hasnt been seen for 3 years having rattled off a hatrick in very easy style over this trip, gets to run off last winning mark which he won in very comfortable style. Its interesting yard have peserved with him and he has been gelded since last seen and does hold an entry for the cesarewitch and if he is likely to make the cut he is probably gonna need a few more pounds yet so a win somewhere soon might be important. Yard have had a winner recently and 20/1 looks a big price if all is well and ready to go. 3pt win Tameem 9/4 pp 1pt e/w Blimey O'riley 20/1 hills

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 3.40 Pontefract Desert Strike has had an awfully busy year and perhaps signs of things catching up with him, having won very easily at Windsor in the summer and looked to win with something in hand but has struggled to live upto that since and looks up against it again. There looks to be plenty of pace on in this race with Captain Royale, Dancing Freddy and Mr Wolf all in the lineup which should suit Select Committee who took advantage of a drop in the weights and duly obliged quite nicely in the end runs under a penalty today and should find this race run to suit, has run well off this sort of mark before and fast ground to suit. The other that should also benefit from the strong pace is gonna be Gooseberry Bush relatively unexposed if she continues the improvement she has found recently, she looked to be a winner 2 furlong out having travelled well but was over taken by the fast finishing Rafaaf who was potentially unexposed and from a yard in great form so perhaps that performance can be marked up, up 2lb for that effort and would probably only need to run just aswell again to win this, fast ground is a slight unknown with all form coming on good ground. 2pt win Gooseberry Bush 6/1 hills 1pt win Select Committee 7/1 hills 4.30 Newmarket Just a brief one, Chiberta King looks a bit of E/W value in this listed event if running anywhere near to his best. He isnt always the most consistent these days but capable of running a good race on his day, did win 2 races recently including a listed event at Sandown over this trip, not quite sized up against group2 level horses last 2 starts this much easier despite penalty. Cheekpieces refitted which brought about some improvement in the spring also goes well over the Rowley Mile including 2 wins and has solid place claims at very least with 8 runners still lining up hopefully!! 1pt e/w Chiberta King 12/1 vc 8.00 Wolverhampton Mrs Dee Bee looks well treated to get off the mark on the AW on her AW debut having won a maiden in fine style at Nottingham, she was perhaps alone for too long in front last time out idling in front but did rally towards the finish once she lost the lead and probably worthy of credit for that effort, handicapper put her up 3lb but she is clearly still unexposed for an inform yard, she is the only confirmed front runner in the field which could be important but should have the presence of other runners around her today which she just might appreciate. The other that looks to hold a good claim is an AW favourite Carcinetto, been kept extremely busy by the Evans yard as often there runners are, she has run 2 promising races recently, the first she was staying on having been hampered early on in the race and did well to finish as close as she did, she built on that further last time out when only finding the ever consistent Jonnie Skull who got a soft lead too much when she was again staying on really well and if she can build upon that again off the same mark she is dangerously well treated having last won off a 32lb higher mark of course age has caught up and not force of old but she should go well over a course she has won over 6 times. 3pt win Mrs Dee Bee 11/4 vc 2pt win Carcinetto 11/2 vc

[Aidymac]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Hi Chris, with regards the 3:40, a great race in prospect... I went for Captain Royale but i think Gooseberry Bush is a very big danger. Silvestre gets the ride and Mata Hari Blue franked its form yesterday... Got Captain Royale @ 18/1 yesterday, i see Hugh Taylor has gone for it @ 14/1 and its now biggest priced 9/1, i got better value than Hugh Taylor :cow Best of luck chris, should be a very good race, very competitive!

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread

Hi Chris, with regards the 3:40, a great race in prospect... I went for Captain Royale but i think Gooseberry Bush is a very big danger. Silvestre gets the ride and Mata Hari Blue franked its form yesterday... Got Captain Royale @ 18/1 yesterday, i see Hugh Taylor has gone for it @ 14/1 and its now biggest priced 9/1, i got better value than Hugh Taylor :cow Best of luck chris, should be a very good race, very competitive!

Yeah does look a cracker of race, good luck aswel mate and well done on beating Hugh Taylor not easy ;)!!!

[Aidymac]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread The draw was obviously a huge factor in that 3:40.. Winner Dancing Freddy won @ 16/1 drawn in 2 . 2nd was Silvanus @ 12/1 drawn in 3. 3rd was Lady Kildare @ 11/1 drawn in 1.

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Yeah certainly was unfortunately nevermind another day today ;)!! 5.15 Wolverhampton Quite a wide open looking handicap but when you look at it the top 2 in the market look good value to be honest. I would be more interested in Desert Falls had he been better drawn as he showed signs of a return to form last time out but he isnt drawn that well especially with the presence of other front runners. This should set this race up for a finisher and that could suit Flaxen Lake and Trojan Rocket. Flaxen Lake is generally consistent although doesnt win very often. Has returned to form last 2 starts running on near finish, runs off same mark today and just as effective on the AW and should get a strong pace to chase and has run well off much higher marks than this especially when taking useful apprentices claim off. Trojan Rocket was another that returned to form last time out, meeting all sorts of trouble in running before having to make his move fairly wide, and close fast towards the finish. Gets to run off the same mark tonight and that race has worked out well with the winner winning again off a 5lb higher mark and also 7th has won since. Only had 6 runs so potentially more to come and all form has come on the AW aswell. 2pt win Trojan Rocket 5/1 bet365 1pt win Flaxen Lake 11/2 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 7.20 Wolverhampton Justbookie Dot Com should go extremely well again having found some improvement lately, but that race was run to suit last time out and for all he won extremely well a further 9lb rise is a perhaps slightly harsh on the face of it but should find this race run to suit with several pace angles in it again but concern is the big rise in weights and isnt much value at current price. Ishiadancer is a front runner who has tumbled in the weights but yet to show enough to suggest he can capatilise on that and wide draw also a hinderence, another front runner with similar situation is Dhaaman who is drawn widest of all and is best suited to an uncontested lead and is probably weighted upto his best right now! Sheridean who trains around here runs 2 last time out winners in this race, Polemica and Needwood Ridge. Needwood just scraped home well over a month ago, up 3lb for that effort and meets the second horse that day on 1lb worse terms and wouldnt be surprised to see that turned around today and as Needwood doesnt look the typical sort to score again in such a competitive race. Polemica is the more interesting for me, she is far more consistent and hardly ever runs a bad race around here, won last time out quite comfortably and only 4lb higher which looks lenient and should get the race run to suit and mares in form are usually worth following. Both Downhill Skier and Copperwood are capable on there days off a strong pace but both are probably weighted upto there best currently. The other bet in this race is going to be Glenridding who is the best drawn of several front runners and could be dangerous if left alone up front, he remains well handicapped on turf form having last won in the mud at his beloved Thirsk off a mark of 79, put in a good show at Chester in a much hotter race last time out off a mark of 83 and might take some getting to as is fully effective around here with 5 wins from 20 starts! 2pt win Glenridding 9/2 pp 1pt win Polemica 10/1 lads 9.20 Wolverhampton Quite easy to cross a few of these out in my opinion, Broughtons Fawn has shown very little to date and will need to show improvement now handicap and over longer trip which is possible but not risk for me. Look For Love showed first sign of form last time out but was still well beaten into 2nd and this race looks stronger with a 3lb rise. Wings Of Apollo again showed some improvement switched to handicaps last time out but still well held. Syncopated Lady doesnt look straight forward and makes AW debut tonight also concerns she doesnt quite see this trip out as has struggled to see a mile out in recent times. So Is She has struggled generally of late. Money Note shown nothing in 2 British starts and of no interest personally. Prince Of Thebes has been well held aswell and is becoming rapidly regressive. Indian Violety bounced back to form last time out that was a weak race and recieves a 2lb rise, has won on the AW but off a 5lb higher mark and will need a career best effort and has always failed off this sort of mark. There is signs that Richard Guests runners are returning to form recently and Hill Tribe was one of those runners that has showed improvement last time out although that was only 2 days ago under Fallon who rides again tonight he might be able to build on that if this doesnt come to soon, last win came off a 4lb higher mark and that was over CD, went from the front last time out and there isnt any obvious front runners so maybe a soft time. Another that might just get a soft lead if they push on with him is Saviour Sand, who hasnt been seen since finishing well down the field at Kempton in May. Does go well fresh and and is 6lb below last winning mark and has a much better record around here than Kempton, if he is wound up and gets that lead from a good draw in stall 1 he might take some catching. 2pt win Hill Tribe 9/2 lads 1pt win Saviour Sand 18/1 boyles

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 4.20 Newcastle An interesting staying handicap not going to be run in typical grueling conditions that sometimes are about at this time of year and several of these want softer ground so not ideal for them including Puy D'arnac. Mina's Boy hasnt stood much racing but has found some improvement since switched to handicaps, could easily improve further but has now gone up 12lb since first win and only just scraped home off a 5lb lower mark last time out and that race really hasnt worked out very well, and also needs to prove he can act on faster ground. Jeu De Roseau has to be considered in any race of this sort, since landing a controversal gamble last year he has proved most consistent and continues to pick up races along the way, last seen on flat finishing 4th in a typically strong pontefract stayers race this looks weaker 1lb higher today but has since won again over hurdles off a mark of 112 again proving his well being and potentially still well treated. Acts on most ground and is 2 from 3 over this CD and the other run was a solid 2nd!. Harveys Hope is an interesting runner, only had 1 year of racing and started off in bumpers showing some decent form but was dropped into an apprentice handicap to get off the mark off a mark of 68, now racing off 75 and although hampered last time out and staying on suggesting step up in trip would suit but top weight in this race looks a big ask at a skinny price in my opinion and perhaps wants some cut in the ground. First Rock is my final interest in this race, comes from the Swinbank yard who have had a few winners recently and although he has burnt plenty of fingers along the way in maidens on the AW he showed plenty of promise in NHF races both on turf and fibresand, not beaten far in 2 fibresand handicaps in the spring although looking a bit awkward in a finish hopefully that is just inexperienced showing which hopefuly has been addressed and 1lb lower today and has gone well fresh in the past and should be suited to this step up in trip on the flat and has to be of interest at a big price! 2pt win Jeu De Roseau 9/2 hills 1pt win First Rock 12/1 lads 5.40 Kempton This looks quite a good race for a Wednesday night AW meeting but I believe it to be a 2 horse race with 2 horses looking well ahead of there current marks. Dean Swift has only had 5 runs to date with a win coming in a good Goodwood maiden winning extremely well. Finished a long way behind Ice Buster who looked well ahead of his mark at the time but still beat the rest of the field comfortably, Icebuster has seen disappointed off a much higher mark but there could still be plenty of improvement left yet and gets to run off the same mark again biggest problem is the wide draw with the presence of other front runners better drawn but he looks the best handicapped. Tahaaman is another that looks well ahead of his mark and is due to go up by 5lb from this saturday and this will be his golden opportunity to get his 3rd win, only had 6 runs to date and again should have plenty of improvement left yet, he stayed on strongly from an uninspiring position at Goodwood last week behind Samsons Son only just failing to get up and if he can repeat that over this shorter trip he ought to be hard to beat, well drawn in stall 1 aslong as not getting trapped on the rail, has won over this trip on turf and does have polytrack form when winning a maiden over 7f on debut as a 2yr old. 4pt win Tahaaman 3/1 lads 1pt win Dean Swift 15/2 pp

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Back at last been far too long!!! Will get results sorted in next few days!! 5.00 Newcastle Not the best day of racing to get stuck back into big fields full of low grade animals typical end of season racing but despite that there are a few interesting runners that catch my eye in this staying handicap. Riptide has been running well of late but again suggesting he really wants a test staying on at the death but never nearer and this tempers enthusiasm behind him, and with blinkers being swapped for cheekpieces unlikely to have a drastic effect and he doesnt look that well treated off a 8lb higher mark than last winning mark. Dr Finley is another that tends to place more than he wins and best form seems to have come on faster ground than what is likely today. Spice Bar has been a revelation this season with 4 wins over hurdles and one of the flat, 10lb higher today than last win and was bitterly disappointed 2 weeks ago over jumps and season may just be catching up with him now. Lady Bluesky looks massively overprices in my opinion and is already attracting plenty of support in the early markets. She had a great season last year both on the flat and over jumps, has now worked her way back down to her last winning mark after two below par efforts on ground that probably wasnt ideal. Should relish testing conditions today and should strip fitter for recent runs, jockeys also takes off a handy 5lb making her look well treated in this race. The other that catches my eye is Swinbanks runner First Rock who I backed last time out at a much bigger price and ran a cracker! Wrote this last time; First Rock is my final interest in this race, comes from the Swinbank yard who have had a few winners recently and although he has burnt plenty of fingers along the way in maidens on the AW he showed plenty of promise in NHF races both on turf and fibresand, not beaten far in 2 fibresand handicaps in the spring although looking a bit awkward in a finish hopefully that is just inexperienced showing which hopefuly has been addressed and 1lb lower today and has gone well fresh in the past and should be suited to this step up in trip on the flat and has to be of interest at a big price! 3lb higher today but still capable off this mark I feel and although softer ground an unknown he has gone well on fibresand which usually converts well on soft ground and clearly relished the step up in trip last time. 2pt win First Rock 5/1 hills 2pt win Lady Bluesky 9/1 boyles

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 8.10 Kempton Beat Route is of interest returned to AW, hasnt shown much on turf recently but tends to run much better on AW, but main concern is he remains 6lb higher than last winning mark and I am not the biggest fan of jockey on board today and from a wide draw is also a negative. Evergreen Forest got off the mark last time out in a maiden in very comfortable style, has been well held in handicaps previously and finds himself another 3lb higher since last handicap run and will need to improve again which isnt out of the question. Deceptive is going to have to underperform massively to be beaten in this race in my opinion, some promise in handicaps in the summer before going on a break before improving massively for the switch to AW winning by 7 lengths last week over CD, runs under a 6lb penalty tonight and is still 7lb well in here and at 6/4 looks a massive price drawn in stall 1 is another positive and yard continue to bang in the winners. Should Deceptive not run upto the form he showed last week Potentiale looks a likely contendeer to pick up the pieces and is worth a small saver. Not won this year but has run upto his best most of the time and ran well last time out under inexperienced rider who left him far too much to do but ran extremely strongly at the finish, has a good record on the AW 1 win and 5 placed efforts from 13 starts 3lb below last winning mark on turf and wears first time blinkers today has showed improved form in cheekpieces including winning form so hope lies on them having desired effect. 4pt win Deceptive 6/4 bet365 1pt win Potentiale 12/1 bet365 8.40 Kempton Just a small E/W interest in the second division off this handicap. Kames Park looks a well handicapped horse again on his best form, he is never one to rely in fully because he is a difficult character to predict. He requires a strong gallop to aim at and didnt get that last time out at Wolves but still ran with credit and left the impression that perhaps he was ready to strike again. Now a 1lb below last winning mark and has won off much higher marks in the past and always saves his best for the polytrack 8 wins and 12 places from 34 starts not a bad show. Should get a strong gallop to aim at with Perilously and Fifty Cents in the line up and Guest yard appears in fine fettle at the moment with several big priced runners running well in recent days. 1pt e/w Kames Park 14/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 5.30 Lingfield Good looking sprint handicap with plenty of usual AW horses in the lineup and some look a bit overpriced in my opinion! Go Nani Go has had a good late summer campaign with finally another win but has struggled from his new mark probably found soft ground too much last time out, but overall strike rate is off putting now and also only had 1 AW run and was down the field. Lord Of The Reins goes well at Kempton but cashed in on much lower turf mark on penultimate start and could go well again if in that sort of form, but he is handicapped probably to just about his best on the AW 6lb higher than last win although has won off higher in the past and has 2 wins from 5 runs around here and is a worthy saver in my opinion from a good draw. Absa Lutte is a sort that could go well if in the mood but has rapidly become frustrating and is probably worth opposing again. Chjimes is usually competitive around here but doesnt have the best record fresh and tends to go better when having several runs on the bounce and yard also struggling for winners at the moment. Boogie Waltzer is a consistent sort and a credit for connections with a decent strike rate but is probably handicapped to his best now, last winning at Southwell off a mark of 69 runs off 70 today and has generally struggled off higher marks although signs of a return to form last time out but nothing to really suggest he is a winner waiting to happen fading in the finish on soft ground which is disappointing considering he has stamina over further and plenty of form on soft ground. There only appears to be one front runner in this field and he isnt exactly confirmed and that is Boogie Waltzer which puts me off the short priced favourite Rebecca Romero who clearly needs a strong pace to chase and also Estonia would have been a lot of interest had there been presence of more front runners as she has shown more of her old spark finishing well recently on last 2 starts on the AW but needs them to go hard up front which is unlikely here. Therefore looking at the race itself its gonna pay to race handy I feel from a good draw and therefore what looked like a saver bet looks the main bet now, Lord Of The Reins should go well at a good E/W price for a yard going well right now! 2pt e/w Lord Of The Reins 8/1 hills