Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread

[chris34]

Ok fingers crossed this season turns out to be the one to turn the corner and prove a profitable one! My selection process has changed mainly with multiple selections in race in most races and staking is now a 1-10pts system to make things simpler hopefully Most bets are now also win only and also looking at Antepost markets.

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread This was posted on my blog 7th March my Antepost bets for Lincoln This year will see the Lincoln meeting the 3rd flat meeting of the season which is very unusual, the Lincoln meeting revolves around a very competitive handicap which just keeps getting stronger and stronger each year with many top yards now targeting it. Most of the runners dont have a prep race and therefore you are backing on trust that the runners are fit and ready to do themselves justice. The time of year the race usually brings Soft to Good to Soft ground so horses that act with some cut often favoured. The race has a maximum of 22 runners and recent cut off points have been around the 92/94 mark and therefore you can cross a huge amount of the current field out. All my bets will be placed on Betfair for the possibility of trading in and out as the day comes up. Kalk Bay is an interesting runner from last years winning stable Haggas and is the talking horse again. He won a shade cosily on soft ground at Newmarket in August but then was turned over rather easily by the exposed Little Scotland at Newcastle again on soft ground, but bounced right back on the deep fibresand surface at Southwell on final start last season beating some useful sorts, sure to be fit and ready for the race but a mark of 92 could leave him vunerable to being balloted out but yard will take the risk and you will get your money back if he is balloted out so at 16.00 on Betfair looks a good price. Gunner Lindley didnt always look the most straightforward last year but did get infront on final start at York over a mile on soft ground, 5lb higher this year off a mark of 93 but will need to improve again as didnt look to have a lot to spare 18.00 is a fair price but not for me. Dubai Hills is another that has to be considered but wont be a bet for me, he has found rapid improvement on the deep fibresand surface at Southwell recently and did win a heavy ground maiden so if ground was testing he could have a chance, but in all honesty like most AW races he hasnt beaten much and a mark of 95 could flatter him back on turf he was also well held when switched from fibresand to polytrack last time out which is a concern aswell. Irish Heartbeat comes from the inform Fahey yard and won the consolation race of this one last year the Spring Mile now 7lb higher for that win and did win again over 7f round here later in season and 5lb higher for that win but a mile has often looked to stretch his stamina and shapes better in a truly run 6f/7f race and therefore looks opposable. Last years winner is also entered at the moment Penitent but the yard have hinted that he will go for a listed race in a few weeks time and miss the Lincoln, he would have to carry top weight off a mark of 113 which could make things extremely tough having won off 98 last year, did win a listed race at Sandown in September but was then well held in group 3 and listed company since and doesnt look the obvious sort to benefit from going back into handicap company off such a stiff mark. Suited and Booted comes from the Hannon yard and won his last 2 starts last year both at Newmarket over 7f and mile, only got home by short head latest start but was getting on top at line and going away but a 6lb rise looks a little harsh also they were both on good to firm unlikely to get that on the 2nd of April but did win a modest soft ground maiden but even so more needed. So onto my stronger selections that I hope will make the cut guaranteed. Nideeb would have to carry a hefty weight off a mark of 107, but has shown he is a more than capable sort landing a listed event on the AW at lingfield and 2nd at kempton over a trip that probably stretched him, he could still have more to offer over the mile trip having finished runner up on good to soft listed event at haydock over this trip and did win a listed event on good over 7f at ascot giving the impression that he could be quite versatile and certainly open to more improvement yet and could easily be a group horse. Taqleed is the least exposed of all the runners having only been since 4 times and clearly has plenty of improvement left in him yet, won a good/soft maiden over a mile at Nottingham and then won a handicap in very good style off a mark of 85 over 10f on good to soft, was then far from disgraced in the competitive Cambridgeshire at Newmarket and did suggest that would be better back over a mile and remains on a perfectly workable mark on the evidence of penultimate win. Navajo Chief holds an entry in this and will be interesting to see if he comes back from Dubai in time, he has really found his feet recently over there getting his head in front in a typical competitive handicap and off a mark of 101 under a penalty could look well treated is also 1 from 1 at donny. My final selection is Eton Rifles got a bit of seconditis towards the end of last season on good to soft ground over 7f only going down by a short head to the useful Horseradish and up only 2lb for that effort and still only remains 2lb higher than last win and has to be considered. Suggested bets taken on Betfair today; 1pt win Kalk Bay 16.00 (12/1 bet365) 1pt win Nideeb 34.00 (33/1 bet365) 1pt win Navajo Chief 27.00 (25/1 bet365) 1pt win Eton Rifles 109.70 (33/1 bet365) 1pt win Taqleed 9.20 (9/1 bet365)

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread And this was posted last night; We are less than 7 days away from the official curtain raiser of the season. The weekend saw Nideeb one of my selections romp home in the Group 3 Winter Derby at Lingfield, his price therefore shrunk slightly and Brittian has mentioned taking the horse upto Group 1 level and possibly going to Turkey. So far there has been no mention of a run in the Lincoln which concerns me and I have decided to trade out at 22.00 which has been matched and therefore should Nideeb run I will still have 1pt at 12.00 but stand to lose nothing on the bet. The other runner which has shrunk dramatically is Eton Rifles who was a far too bigger price at 109.70 and is now as small as 22.00 and although I havn’t traded yet I am very tempted so will keep you posted!

[hereforthep]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread all the best Chris

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Thanks hereforthep! At last the start of the real stuff!! Not really much to get excited about really couple of very competitive handicaps. 2.50 Catterick Small John is capable of winning on turf but is better known for his AW exploits these days and this mark has proved beyond him on AW and well beyond him on turf before so is opposable on balance. Politbureau has been subject to a significant market move, but has shown very little to date and mark looks harsh enough, very inexperienced apprentice on board although able to take off 7lb is also a concern, well drawn but yard struggling for winners at the moment. Lindoro has found some form recently on the fibresand but this looks a lot tougher back on turf and although still potentially well treated on best form he clearly isnt the horse he was and again inexperienced jockey on board. Violent Velocity is a hard horse to predict but he did shows signs of return to form end of last season but has since been off and although reunited with Brennan is probably worth avoiding as has never gone that well after such a long break. Trans Sonic has been in brilliant form again this winter and has cemented himself as a bit of a fibresand specialist, he has won on turf before and finds himself on a 10lb lower mark on the green stuff and this could potentially be a bit lenient having won over CD twice from 4 starts and although 9lb higher than last turf win has continued to steadily improve as the winter has gone on, ideal ground conditions on good ground, the slightly worrying thing is the wide draw but capable claimer takes off a very handy 5lb. Dazeen is yet to win a race and backing maidens in handicap company is usually worth avoiding especially after so many starts. His attitude doesnt always look great and but he looks to have ability at a lowly level like this and recent run at Southwell was encouraging start staying on late over a trip far too short. Should have put him spot on for this and not overly burthed in stall 10. And finally So Bazaar is perhaps the most unexposed runner in the field, ran probably his bets race to date on last start last season when finishing a shd second at carlisle on fast ground, his best form has been over this trip which is encouraging and although up 3lb for that effort could still have more to give has run respectably fresh before and is very well drawn in stall 1 for a front runner which could be vital with so much early pace in the race. 2pt win So Bazaar 9/1 VCBet 2pt win Transonic 6/1 Bet365 1pt win Dazeen 10/1 Bet365 3.20 Catterick Baltimore Clipper has threatened to be something quite useful on more than one occasion and finally got off the mark on good ground at Thirsk last year up 7lb for that and never ran a race in the next 2 starts, has since been dropped 2lb and gelded which could be significant as attitude has always held this back and the money coming for him is encouraging to suggest that it may have done the trick. Chookie Hamilton is one of my old favourites but I am not just putting him because of that, he is a useful sort and has picked up plenty of prizes in his time a recent SPIN over hurdles worth forgiving on heavy ground, that was first start for new yard and is only 3lb higher than last winning mark, good ground ideal wouldnt want things drying out too much more but has always gone very well having had a run before so is of obvious interest. 4pt win Baltimore Clipper 5/1 VCBet 1pt win Chookie Hamilton 10/1 Coral 4.30 Lingfield Ryan Moore bids to kick off his season with 2 hot shots at lingfield. Deauville Posts comes from the inform Hannon yard who often find good opportunities for horses especially early season and can ready them fresh aswell. He has shown very little form on the AW but has shown much more promise on AW, although won a turf maiden his best run was second on last start last season at kempton over this trip well clear of third, form of that race not the strongest but none of the others in the field come into this so unexposed and open to more dropped a 1lb for that run and Moore is obvious strong booking. 5pt win Deauville Post 9/4 Betfred

[StuSimmy]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Good luck mate :ok

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Cheers Stu 3.50 Leicester Postman has a tendency to run really well or totally flop, he has hit some form recently on the fibresand and now needs to prove himself in same form on turf, has won on turf before but only narrowly won off a 2lb lower mark so for me has something to prove. Regal Rave ran a race full of promise at kempton last month but turf form has all come on super fast ground at Bath and good ground at leicester is something totally different and is probably best watched at a short price. Sennockian Storm comes from the inform Mark Johnston yard, she won a maiden at FFos Las on good to soft ground in really good style. Then went totally the wrong way tailed off next 2 starts in handicaps and would be no surprise to see her bounce back off a much lower mark today and could well progress as a 4yr old. Beetuna is a frustrating sort clearly has a ability and I have tipped him up countless times. He has caught the eye on more than one occassion infact jockey has been in trouble for notletting him run his race before, he will need a true test at this trip but handicapper giving him a massive chance dropping him a further 4lb since latest run and now 2lb below last winning mark and 10lb below last eye catching run and champion jock a positive booking! 3pt win Beetuna 7/1 coral 2pt win Sennockian Storm 8/1 bet365 5.20 Leicester Nimue is an interesting runner on his seasonal reappearance, only one win to date after several attempts which is an obvious concern but he did win his last start in a weakish maiden at thirsk and if Sennockian Storm runs well earlier in the card it would boost his chances as she finished 3rd that day. Handicapper put him up 2lb but has placed in handicaps off this mark and has gone well fresh in the past so obvious chance on form if attitude isnt suspect. Standpoint clearly came on for the run last time out when just failing to get up on the line, that was from a wide draw and if able to build on that further he has a chance, only has one win and that was on turf and best from has probably come on turf although is closely matched with AW form. 1pt win Nimue 4/1 lads 3pt win Standpoint 7/1 lads

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 2.50 Catterick Transonic upl So Bazaar upl Dazeen upl -5pts Dazeen ran best of the bunch staying on far too late and might be of interest next time out. 3.20 Catterick Baltimore Clipper was a n/r in the end Chookie Hamilton 3rd -1pts Chookie ran respectably but looks held on current mark 4.30 Lingfield Deauville Post WON +16.25 Deauville Post landed a bit of a gamble going off odds on and duely got the job done, now remains to be seen if he can be as affective on turf. Staked: 11pts Returned: 16.25pts P/L: +5.25pts

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 3.20 Musselburgh Several old favourites in big field sprints line up for the first time, Go Go Green was/is a useful horse but has often needed the run and probably better suited to faster ground these days, although he is now with a very inform yard of Goldie so any money would be significant. Nadeen is the least exposed runner of the field with only 7 runs under his belt, he went the wrong way on turf last year after winning first time out the season before on fast ground maiden, has returned to some sort of form on the southwell fibresand which gives hope for going on soft ground, has been off for 129days but has previously won first time out and Fallon is an interesting booking and would be no surprise if there werent more to come. Highland Warrior is a musselburgh speciliast with 23 runs under his belt and 5 wins and very rarely runs a bad race here, gets ideal ground today on good to soft ground and although 5lb above last winning mark which was penultimate start ran another solid race off a 1lb lower mark on last start last season which offers hope on return. Has won off marks around this before and can go well fresh and gets on well with Pickard. Mandurah is as bigger price as perhaps I had hoped as it appears he catches the eye of several tippers but he just cant be ignored returning to the sprint king Dandy with his son back in the saddle. He is dangerously well handicapped 15lb below last winning mark. Record fresh is a bit hit and miss but yard more than capable of readying them. 2pt win Highland Warrior 9/1 bet365 2pt win Nadeen 11/2 bet365 1pt win Mandurah 8/1 betfred 4.20 Musselburgh Guest Book could well prove to be the bet of the week in my opinion. Yard have kicked off the new season in sparkling form as you would expect and yard has a 20% strike rate at this course. He was last seen chasing home the potentially well treated Pintura at epsom over 9f on heavy ground, pulled well clear of remainder of field and that form looks reasonably solid. First try at a 8f today which would look to suit having not seen out 10f and looked to need a little further when racing over 7f. 3lb rise for that last effort looks fair with several of horses behind running well and winner also finishing runner up in big field handicap next time out. Went well fresh last year and yard no the time of day with there runners so any money would mean a big run expected. Although Guest Book is my nap for the day Toledo Gold is a frustrating character with only one win to his name. He will enjoy the ground and went well last year when switched back from hurdles over 7f round here and comes here on back of similar profile although stepped upto a mile today, stamina didnt ought to be an issue having run well over hurdles on penultimate start, although running out of the handicap potentially well treated and if getting soft lead could stay on for a place at the very least at a tasty price! 5pt win Guest Book 11/4 bet365 1pt e/w Toledo Gold 20/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Yesterdays results: 3.50 Leic Beetuna upl -3 Sennockian Storm upl -2 Both look worth avoiding on the evidence we saw today, Beetuna far to keen and was never in it. Shenockian Storm travelled well enough but was flat and very one paced with no signs of any improvement. 5.20 Leic Nimue WIN +5 Standpoint 3rd -3 Nimue ran as if there was more to come and she certainly showed no signs of attitude today and could be capable of more yet. Standpoint ran his usual honest race but mark may just hold him for now. Staked: 20pts Returned: 21.25pts P/L: +1.25pts

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 3.10 Doncaster Lincoln Happy to sit with my antepost selections Nideeb I backed and traded out so no loss there, Kalk Bay was balloted out so therefore got my stake back. Navajo Chief was taken out so we do lose stake on that one. I have Taqleed at 9.2 to a 1pt stake and also Eton Rifles at 109.7 to a 1pt stake. 5.20 Doncaster Im interested in 2 at the top of the handicap. Bonfire Night ran a couple of solid efforts in handicaps over this trip and on good ground, was extremely disappointing in a classified race over CD on final start of flat season and hasnt set the world alight over hurdles recently neither, but if a break has freshened him up a mark of 85 isnt beyond him and yard in fantastic form alongside top jockey aswell all points to a big run! The other that catches my eye is Satwa Moon who again comes from an inform yard of Ed Dunlop. He looked a massive handicap blot when bolting up at wolverhampton at start of last season but failed to really go on and prove that only steadly improving alongside the handicapper giving him no edge in the end, but his record fresh is brilliant which offers hope off a mark which he has finished placed a couple of times, not sure he wants drop back in trip is ideal but his win came over shorter than this so good possibilities its his record fresh that really interests me. 2pt win Bonfire Knight 11/2 coral 2pt win Satwa Moon 9/1 coral

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 2.45 Doncaster Hard to find much that stands out, although last season I thought Ming Meng might be a good thing having romped home in a good enough looking maiden for a Hamilton maiden, that was on good ground similar to todays. She failed to go on from that although did run respectably on all starts afterwards and 3rd when last seen off this mark at newcastle on heavy ground. Should be seen to better affect on this ground and it is interesting a top yard has perservered with her. 2pts e/w Ming Meng 8/1 pp 3.55 Doncaster Horse Radish is another horse I followed last year having watched him at Newmarket on Guineas weekend he looks a really progressive sort signing off the win with a decent win at Doncaster on last day of season. Certainly wouldnt want things drying out much more as he was campaigned to need soft ground last year, a 3lb rise for latest win in competitive handicap is fair, Turner retains the ride and appears to get on well with the horse, record fresh is extremely impressive aswell winning twice after a break. Not sure draw is ideal in stall 4 on todays evidence but strong place claims. 1pt e/w Horse Radish 9/1 pp

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 3.10 Doncaster Lincoln Handicap Taqleed became a non runner and because I backed antepost we lose stake Navajo Chief never made it to the race so again lost stake again Eton Rifles ran another cracker only fading in last furlong and could easily pick up a 7f race this season and defenetily one to watch! -3pts in total 5.20 Doncaster Satwa Moon N/R Bonfire Knight WIN +10.80 20p R4 Won very nicely in the end and looks the sought that could easily progress further given right ground conditions. Staked: 35pts Returned: 45.05pts P/L: +10.05pts

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Really bad day of racing with just race worth even looking at and then only worth very small stakes. 4.40 Windsor Most of these have something to prove but Galatian appeals as one of the least expose runners in the field. He is a front runner which is well suited to this course and is well drawn in 7, yards runner went through a purple patch recently and several efforts suggest yard are just ticking along at the moment which is a slight concern but he comes he having won last 2 starts and open to more improvement on just a 2lb higher mark for beating Bronze Beau also looks versatile as far as ground. The other that interests me at a fair price is Efistorm. This weekend has seen runners fit from Dubai and the AW do extremely well and he comes here fit from recent efforts on the AW. Hasnt done much worth writing home about all winter although been perhaps a tad unlucky a number of times and races not run to suit, should get a race run to suit here and has won this race 3 times and has strong form claims on form from round here. Last win came off this mark and has won off a 1lb higher mark before so capable of playing a part here. 2pt win Galatian 15/2 hills 1pt win Efistorm 14/2 bet365

[Haystacks]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Congrats on successful start to season, Chris. Some good winners so far - sweet! I spent about 45 mins looking at this pretty mediocre Windsor race earlier today and couldn't find anything that really appealed. Galatian would be my pick purely on past form, but whether he will be fit enough is a big question. I'm going to steer clear of this one but wish you the best of luck with your selections.

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 4.10 Pontefract 3 catch my eye in this handicap and worth small bets! Tiger Reigns comes here from the Lincoln winning yard and carries a similar profile to that as in he is fit from a run in dubai and ran more than respectably last time out and was a return to form. He last won a competitive handicap at Ayr over a mile and he stayed on strongly that day to win by 2 lengths hit hard for that but clearly capable of more yet although whether this step up in trip is ideal im not convinced therefore he is more of a saver than a bet. Changing The Guard comes from the inform duo of Hanagan and Fahey who have kicked off the season in fantastic form. He won first time out as a 3yr old, failed to win last year but ran with respect most starts last year at a decent level and could find this a tad easier and surely wont lack fitness for this return. Runs off his last winning mark so every chance. The other that looks a tad overpriced in my opinion is Crakcentorp who hasnt been seen at this trip since his 3yr old season and he is actually 2 from 2 over todays trip. Spent most of last year in the top handicaps and has now slipped down the weights a bit and yard did have a winner at Doncaster at weekend to also offer hope. 1pt win Tiger Reigns 11/2 bet365 1pt win Crackentorp 11/1 bet365 2pt win Changing the Guard 4/1 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Forgot to say thanks Haystack! Has been a decent start fingers crossed it carries on but my trouble is I often start well then all goes wrong lol!! 4 flat meetings and really struggled to find a worthwhile bet today. 3.40 Beverley Quite a tight handicap with Leitzu just about current favourite but I am dead against her, she has an inexperienced jockey up and Channon yard clearly not in full swing with several runners running below expectations she also ran disappointing on latest hurdle run having shown promise before which again is a massive concern. Hill Tribe is an interesting runner returning to turf for the first time this season. She has improved rapidly for new yard winning at southwell and wolverhampton in early spring and was a good enough 3rd off revised mark last time out at southwell, prior to that she shaped as if she was a true stayer and this step up in trip looks fine. She also showed limited form on turf last year to suggest she can go on it if improvement is transferred over to turf for new yard now. The most interesting runner for me is The Blue Dog who yet again is a far too bigger price again and looks a bit weak in the market which is usually a concern but beginning to think that perhaps its because she comes from an unfashionable yard. She was bought from a seller at lingfield when landing a gambling on return from over a year off, has since run out 3 game efforts in handicap company and although a form line of 222 starts to ask questions her attitude doesnt look questionable and she is clearly handicapped to win more races yet. She was a neck down on War of the roses who has since gone on to win again off a 2lb higher mark. She is another that has to prove she is effective on turf aswell but looks well worth the risk at the prices. 2pts win Hill Tribe 3/1 bet365 3pts win The Blue Dog 7/2 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 2.45 Ripon A wide open 6f sprint, Marvellous Value is a short priced favourite and despite looking to be on a good mark and recent efforts respectable but doesnt shape as just about to win a race and certainly not at 3/1 and theres better value elsewhere. Sir Geoffrey doesnt get much rest from the handicapper simply because he is so consistent and has proved that again this winter picking up place money every single time since the turn of the year. He did win twice before the turn of the year he remains 5lb above last winning makr but useful apprentice up today for first time to take off 3lb, also has a change of headgear with blinkers replaced with cheekpieces perhaps showing signs they are trying to get his head back infront. He is also 1 from 1 around here and has shaped as if a step up intrip to 6f would suit finishing his races off well recently. Discanti is also an interesting runner. Again has won over CD. He returns here fresh and has gone well fresh last 4 seasons and looks well treated having finished a good second at Beverley 4starts ago, this is his easiest assignment since that last 2nd and yard have started season nicely and did pick up a winner at weekend although would like to see a bit more from the yard before a big bet. 1pt win Sir Geoffrey 8/1 VCBet 1pt win Discanti 7/1 VCBet 5.30 Ripon The second division of the sprint and not quite as competitive on paper with several of these have something to prove and most havnt done much fresh. Sir Nod had a good record fresh until this season when he didnt really stand much chance with his blindfold removed late and never got into it but was back on top form back under the champion jockey who has ridden him to his last 5 wins and gets the leg up again today and a 4lb rise for latest win looks very lenient considering the style he did it in and has won off this mark before. Great Charm is also worth a smal interest although perhaps at a rather skinny price than I had hoped for. He has always come on after a run having won twice second race back and 3rd another time and did shape as if the run would set him straight last time out when shaping well most of the way until the final furlong or so. Gets to run off his last winning mark and has won over CD so must have a chance. 3pts win Sir Nod 11/2 Hills 2pts win Great Charm 6/1 Hills

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 4.40 Newcastle Typical low grade sprint at newcastle with plenty of dead wood in the race. It often pays to be drawn high especially on softer ground and this is what we have today. Bouncy Bouncy is an interesting runner from a top yard that dont have many 55 rated inmates and its interesting that yard have kept her on board and sending her all the way upto Newcastle for a class 6 handicap (yard also got 2 other runners today). They have kicked off the season in good style aswell with a few winners. Bouncy Bouncy won on good ground at brighton in a handicap off a 5lb lower mark didnt ever run back upto that level although did slightly improve for running on heavy ground at yarmouth, should find this soft ground much easier task and unlike most of the field remains open to further improvement yet and drawn in stall 16 couldnt be any better for a big run expected. Ballarina had several of these behind her at Catterick when she romped home by 2 1/2lengths and gets to race off same mark today with same jockey on board claiming same 5lb and is 8lb well in compared to her new mark which will come into affect on saturday. Has proven course form and is another that has potential improvement left in her yet although not that well drawn today! 2pt win Ballarina 5/2 bet365 1pt win Bouncy Bouncy 15/2 vcbet 5.50 Newcastle Hard race to weigh up with mixed form coming into this either from over hurdles, long absences and fibresand form. La Estrella has to be of interest who has been making hay in sellers and claimers on the fibresand and made a succesful switch back to handicap company last time out again on the fibresand beating a reasonable southwell field in the process 6lb penalty to contend with today but clearly still has some potential if returning to turf in same strong vein and the softer surface will suit. Nemo Spirit has been running respectably over hurdles this winter on soft ground and ran an encouraging race returned to the flat in a charity race at cheltenham chasing home the useful plato. He is potentially well treated on his best form having won off a mark of 87 in his prime and now rated 80. And will be well suited to soft ground. This was written last night La Estrella now a non runner 1pt win Nemo Spirit 11/2 pp

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 3.40 Wolverhampton The only race of the day with a couple of names catching my eye. Spinning Ridge has been in great form recently with probert knowning the horse inside out and getting the leg up yet again today, 2lb rise for latest win is more than fair and still remains 6lb below highest winning mark and is well known to string good efforts together and could continue his good run. Drawn hasnt been the kindest but he has been held up recently. The most interesting runner has to be Magical Illusion for the inform Evans yard. His jockey bookings are always hard to work out as they have so many runners these days. But Gannon has become one of his top jockeys and has done well with him and Doyle who rides Evans other runner hasnt had anywhere near as many rides for him also Doyles horse El Liberator is a frustrating sort who is still a maiden after 27 starts often costing punters plenty along the way and is usually worth opposing. Magical Illusion hasnt been seen for nearly 3 years but yard going well and in my opinion first jockey booked and well drawn in stall. Could be dangerously handicapped if fully fit having last been seen winning a competitive nursery off a 2lb higher mark. Also interesting yard have perservered with her (although wouldnt be surprised if she might have had/tried to have a foal cant find any records anywhere to suggest this thoug). 1pt win Spinning Ridge 2pts win Magical Illusion

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 5th April 4.10 Ponte Change The Guard 2nd Tiger Reigns 3rd Crackentorp unpl -5pts 6th April 3.40 Beverley The Blue Dog 2nd Hill Tribe 3rd -5pts 7th April 2.45 Ripon Discanti 2nd Sir Geoffrey 3rd -2pts 5.30 Ripon Sir Nod unpl -3pts 8th April 4.40 Newcastle Ballarina unpl Bouncy Bouncy unpl 5.50 Newcastle Nemo Spirit -4pts As you can see far too many placed efforts the past week Staked: 63pts Returned: 58.3pts P/L: -4.7pts

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 4.20 Catterick Poor looking race with a few of these closely matched on a race 2 weeks ago when they were all behind Madam Lily over slightly further on this course. Lady Norlela finished 2nd in that race but was hit with a 3lb rise which looks harsh for a horse that is still a maiden and doesnt really have the scope for that much improvement. Where as Leaving Alone is also still a maiden and finished 3rd in that race but hasnt recieved a rise in the handicap for that, that was her first start for over 150 days and could well improve on that if coming on for it. Has been rated much higher in her early days and was placed off much higher marks so certainly capable in a weak race. Eijazz is a prolific scorer round here mainly in claiming races but isnt always the best treated in those races yet still won, winning 4 times last year. Has won off a 4lb higher mark in his prime in handicap company and clearly retains ability after the winter having finished 4th in that race 14 days ago and is another that could clearly come on for the run dropped 1lb in handicap and also useful claimer taking off a handy 3lb on top of that. Blue Nymph is the one bringing the strongest form to the table with a recent win over hurdles 40 days ago and yard going very well at the moment. She looks dangerously well treated on her best flat form on the AW having won off a 13lb higher mark, only concern is she has never won on the turf on flat but clearly goes on it having won over hurdles. 3pts win Blue Nymph 5/2 bet365 1pt win Eijazz 8/1 lads 1pt win Leaving Alone 10/1 pp 9.00 Kempton Dvinsky looks a massive price at 11/2 who has been clearly in good heart at the moment and clearly not showing any signs of age catching up with him. He loves it round here and could get a very soft lead with these lot only other one that can make the running is Chantilly Jewel but she looks held on her current mark. Won off a 5lb lower mark on penultimate start and nearly followed up only failing by a nose off a 3lb lower mark. Well handicapped on best form if back to his best and now with another new yard who have swapped blinkers with visor and Fallon looks a very strong booking at 9pm at night! 2pt win Dvinsky 11/2 corals

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 6.00 Brighton On a tough day can only find the 1 bet and that is in a 3 runner handicap!! Im gonna go with the outsider of the 3 Lady Florence she has a fantatsic record around here which is often vital, having won 5 times from 18 starts here she has a fantastic gritty attitude and could easily get a soft lead in this field depending on what April Fool does but if getting a soft lead she is very dangerous around here as she proved yet again last year, she has never won off a mark this high but has placed off this mark before. 2pt win Lady Florence 10/3 lads

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Busy busy day!! 1.35 Newbury Looks like the top of the market dominate this race. Satwa Moon is a horse that frustrated me last season clearly has bags of ability but doesnt win enough races and needs softish ground and has infact been taken out of races on fast ground before. All Action is another frustrating character, unable to land a maiden in 3 attempts but finally got off the mark in a heavy ground epsom maiden over this trip winning by 11lengths that form looks reasonable with 2nd winning a maiden and 3rd 4th in a competitive handicap at doncaster off a mark of 76. Clearly open to more improvement this year with a top yard and went well fresh last year. Modun is another that looks very nicely treated on form he showed last year only 2 starts to his name he is the least exposed of these runners. He won a weak folkestone maiden but then ran a cracking second to the useful Spensley last time out in the autumn when only going down by a short head and that form looks solid with Spensley going on to win next time out off a 6lb higher mark, up 4lb for getting so close to him but again open to more yet and clearly still well treated. And Finally Bourne looks a solid force coming from last years winning stable. He has hardly seen a race track in the last few years but the last two times he has seen the course he has won in slightly more comfortable style than winning margins would suggest and clearly goes well fresh so no concern there and looks versatile as far as ground goes. 2pt win Modun 11/4 vc 2pt win Bourne 7/2 vc 1pt win All Action 8/1 bet365 3.45 Newbury Fiercely competitive handicap with several improving 4yr olds in the lineup but I am gonna take one of older horses in Bravo Echo who has a fantastic record on the AW but showed enough in 2009 to suggest he is just as capable on turf and could easily exploit a much lower turf mark, he comes into this having beat the very useful Lowther by 1 length who has since gone on to win twice that was off a mark of 96 and gets to race off a mark of 92 back on turf. 1pt e/w Bravo Echo 12/1 hills 3.00 Ripon My Arch is an interesting runner, he was last seen going fresh in one of those NHF race at southwell and was a solid 2nd, he clearly goes well fresh having won fresh last spring and then ran creditably all season including when last seen on flat when running 8th in the Cesarewitch and in the context of this race that looks solid form off the same mark. The other interesting one has to be Deauville Flyer who shaped as if a handicap good thing when romping home at york over this trip in the summer. Burnt plenty of fingers after that and could only manage 12th in Cesarewitch but interesting Hanagan takes the ride and if break has done him good he could come back a good thing. 3pt win My Arch 7/1 bet365 2pt win Deauville Flyer 5/1 bet365 5.30 Haydock I am keen to take Piano on at 15/8 in a 15 runner handicap isnt for me and there does clearly have to be usual question marks having won 2 handicaps in good style on all weather but not quite upto that level in maiden company, yard have been in the winners circle but also out of it with some runners shaping as if needing a run. The opposition isnt exactly the strongest with most got something to prove but Music City looks the most interesting of the rest and is worth a small e/w bet against the favourite. He beat the frustrating Alfonso The Wise on his last start last year in a maiden at epsom over todays trip. A mark of 78 may underestimate both his ability and form simply because Alfonso didnt go on and win and I feel thats a bit unfair although great because his mark now looks a workable one in this company. 1pt e/w Music City 7/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 4.20 Redcar Arry's Orse was held in fairly high regard even suggested as a Guineas horse last year but failed to ever live upto that hype and has clearly had plenty of problems having plenty of time off between runs. He does have some ability and it may just prove enough at this level. He won his weak maiden in good style and was far too keen for own good last time out, and should atleast come on for the run and drop back in trip also looks the best option. Dark Lane is my other selection he comes from the hot Fahey stable and won under there apprentice in an apprentice handicap at windsor and gets into this off the same mark, had been running to a consistent level prior to that to suggest he could win again and well treated on 2yr and 3yr old form having won off a mark of 80 both seasons. 3pt win Dark Lane 2/1 vcbet 2pt win Arry's Orse 11/2 hills

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 2.00 Epsom Ultra competitive sprint handicap for epsoms opening card and what a fantastic card it is! Beat The Bell is a horse that caught my eye last season looking like a handicap good thing on debut for the Barron yard at Musselburgh when well backed and had a tardy start but absolutely rattled home. Ran well in Ayr Bronze Cup and then went back to Musselburgh where he duly won only got put up 2lb for that effort but wasnt seen again till 2 weeks ag when he ran a blinder for 3rd. Record fresh isnt great so can be expected to come on for that and will need to again having been put up a further 2lb but still looks open to more even at the ripe age of 6. 2pt e/w Beat The Bell 14/1 lads 5.35 Newcastle The Galloping Shoe looks hard to beat in this small field handicap. He offered very little over the winter over hurdles but made a decent return to the flat over this trip at Doncaster couple weeks ago staying on towards the line and could easily take a hand here. Won over CD off an 8lb lower mark last summer on fast ground and then placed off similar mark to todays and has little in opposition here in my opinion. 2pt win The Galloping Shoe 3/1 coral

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 4.50 Sandown Several of these want softer ground than is likely unless we get a sudden downpour and this plays havoc with several pieces of form so defenetil a min stake job. Invincible Soul looks a horse on the upgrade beatin some useful rivals in big field handicaps last season and looks versatile as far as ground goes but needed a run last year and likely similar story this time round. Hacienda went majorly off the boil at the back end of last season including over CD and but did pick up 3 races earlier in the year. Clearly come back fresh and well having finished a good second behind Joseph Henry on reappearance well clear of remainder of the field. Up 2lb for that effort but clearly could still have more to offer if back on song. Fallon a strong booking and has a 22% strike rate for him and a LSP of +6.67 yard form is a slight concern as they havent started the season as perhaps you would expect. Dance and Dance is only declared to run if the ground is suitable although he looks versatile as far as ground goes having placed on g/f and wins on soft and g/s. He ran a blinder in the Spring Mile finishing really well and can surely only come on for the run, no chance with the winner but was several lengths clear of the remainder and looks another on the upgrade and clearly could pick a big handicap up this term. Beschizza keeps the ride and takes off his useful 5lb. I think more can be expected from Fremont this time round with Hughes on board. Wasnt at all pushed about in the lincoln and never threatened but still lightly raced and handicapper giving him a massive chance having been rated 100 now rated 92. He had a light campain last seaosn only 2 runs to suggest something wasnt over well but to see him turned out so quickly again and Hughes aboard shows more positive signs of perhaps what can be expected! 1pt win Fremont 9/1 hills 1pt win Dance and Dance 10/1 hills 1pt win Hacienda 9/1 hills 3.40 Musselburgh Good looking staying race. Hannon doesnt bring horses up north for no reason usually and the fact he hasnt had a runner at Musselburgh in last 5 seasons makes his 3 runners look very interesting today. Deauville Post has a brilliant chance of making it a winning trip. He was very well backed on seasonal reappearance at Lingfield, winning in very convincing and likeable style and certainly suggested that perhaps he was worth another try at a longer trip because the further he went the better he looked. He got a 6lb rise for that win which was more than fair enough and yard looked to be going much better at the moment. He also gets to carry a featherweight in this handicap having only just sneaked in at the bottom of the weights. 2pt win Deauville Post 9/2 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 3.05 Musselburgh The Nifty Fox has always needed a run or two to set him straight. The Taurus Twins won comfortably at Windsor but a 6lb higher mark puts him on a career high mark and this looks tougher. Nadeen was a winner over CD 3 weeks ago and had several of these behind him and won ultimately in confident easy style and looked as though he could be very much on the upgrade. 4lb rise is very lenient in my opinion and could easily defy that, he is lightly raced and clearly improving. Oldjoesaid was 2lengthes behind Nadeen last time out but his record fresh isnt great and can be expected to come on for that run. Yard are in hot form and finds himself on a career low mark having struggled to win in recent years infact last win came off a mark of 102 rated just 79 now. 2pts win Nadeen 6/1 bet365 2pts win Oldjoesaid 7/2 vc 5.40 Musselburgh Cheveyo is a frustrating character having placed on several starts but clear has an attitude problem and looks worth avoiding for the win purpose. Odd Ball is an interesting runner rated only 56 on handicap debut. He got that rating having beaten a very very modest bunch on debut, yard thought he would need the run but in the end he just did enough to get up and can surely only go one way after that and aslong as he continues to learn the mark of 56 might underestimate him. He is rated to a couple of unpredictable sprinters at a modest level including Pinball and Rocketball but have both scored of higher marks and interesting that Rocketball has shown useful form over CD and fast ground has been the key to both those horses so aslong as the rain doesnt get into the ground he must have a chance in this race. The other interesting runner is Senate Majority who is another that won a very modest maiden on the fibresand but failed to land a blow back in handicap company at southwell, was then off 3 months before reappearing at redcar and running the best race of those racing on the far side and was 1lb out of the handicap that day, back off correct mark today and should be thereabouts if that wasnt a one off. 2pt win Senate Majority 11/4 bet365 1pt win Odd Ball 15/2 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 2.00 Redcar Dreamacha shaped last year as if he was capable of a lot more and although disappointed once on the AW since then has managed to get his head back infront, was made to work for the win but a 3lb rise isnt excessive and shaped better on turf than AW. This is his firs try at 5f and is all about speed so looks well suited to a try at 5f in my opinion if getting a soft lead. The other that looks overpriced at the current prices is Hypnosis. Hasnt won for a couple years now but looks well treated and has shaped as if coming back to form on the AW recently. Suited to fast ground and could easily be involved. 3pts win Dreamacha 11/4 bet365 1pt win Hypnosis 10/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 4.10 Yarmouth Barwaadia won an ameteurs handicap at doncaster and 9 times out of 10 that form doesnt usually stack upto much and hasnt shaped as if a horse progressing prior to that and although yard are in hot form I think Asraab will be impossible to beat although Ive said that a lot lately! The other go dolphin string Al Zahrooni has made a good start to the season which suggests their horses have come back from dubai in good fettle, Suroor has only had 2 runners in the last 14 days and both have run to form. Asraab hasnt stood much racing having won debut in 2009, then only seen once last year when not getting clearest of runs on handicap debut in a hot handicap which had Brick Red behind to finish a neck second to Thrill. Not seen since but yard continue with him which is a good sign as they have a tendency to get rid of 'dead wood' once they get to 4yr olds so clearly has more to give especially at this level if a 7lb rise doesnt prove to excessive for that second. Should Asraab fail to shine today Gouray Girl could capatilise. She has gone well fresh before. She shaped well several times last year over 6f often needing a little further, was finally stepped upto 7f on final start last season and duly got the job done in good style, 6lb higher today could easily defy that aslong fit and ready to go. 4pt win Asraab 7/4 bet365 1pt win Gouray Girl 7/1 bet365