Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Lord of the reins was heavily backed, but was chasing a furious pace and those from behind filled the first 3 but he isnt the most reliable so cant be too harsh! 8.50 Kempton Plenty of pace on in this race with Norse Blues, Dens Gift and Gaily Noble all known to push on from the front and Dens Gift has a tendency to go off to fast these days and burn up will suit anything behind as he generally struggles to win these days despite running well at times. Santefisio won well over CD last month but has always struggled when mark hits the mid 80s and this looks a hotter race and has something to prove off this sort of mark. Flowing Cape took advantage of a drop in grade on good terms in a claimer to win last time out but had four trys over mile including when in form and has failed to offer much and this looks competitive for him these days. Moynahan is a frustrating sort offer runs a good race that suggest he is capable of better next time out but fails to deliver ever time, 2 wins from 38 starts is hardly inspiring despite this race likely to be run to suite and does have some form on the AW is opposable with such a poor strike rate. Big Bay would have a chance if anywhere near his best but his overall profile is very off putting just completly bombs out 99% of the time but does seem to go better here than others and is a 1lb lower than last win but awful effort last time out enough to avoid and small break to also overcome. Ree's Rascal ran a cracker after a break last time out over a trip that he probably found a bit sharp, should be suited to this return to a mile and a strongly run race but he is 14lb above his last winning mark which could be a big ask for a horse that has been on the go all year and will need to continue sharp upward curve to take this and at current prices he is too much of a risk and form of the yard is off putting had a rather quiet summer. Fanshawe and Fallon have teamed up well just recently to land a few punts and also get Fallon some vital winners and they must hold a strong hand again in this race with Snow Magic who hasnt been seen for over 3 months having won with great ease over CD, only 4lb higher and still completely unexposed on this surface with just 4 runs with 3 wins. Concern is obviously the break but yard do pretty well with fresh horses, she will need them to go fast upfront as she clearly stays further and this is probably not her best trip. The other worry has to be that the form of her last win has worked out very disappointingly but she is so unexposed she clealry still has improvement in her. Red Somerset is better on the AW than turf and although most of his wins these days come in claimers he can be competitive in handicaps as he showed last time out over CD when staying on strongly towards the finish off this mark, should get a race run to suit and well handicapped if running anywhere near to his best although that cant be guaranteed with his nature but well worth a saver! The other that looks worth of a small E/W bet is Round Won who has been off the track for nearly 2 months having looked amiss last 2 runs, hopefully they have sorted that out and the addition of the hood for the first time would suggest they want a good run rather than just see how he gets on after a break. He was an impressive winner over this course over 2f further back in February handicapper hit him fairly hard for that rising him 9lb he then ran a great race in a conditions event which earnt him another 1lb but has generally struggled since then but could be capable of better if anywhere near his best again. 2pt win Snow Magic 9/2 hills 1pt win Red Somerset 10/1 hills 1pt e/w Round Won 25/1 lads

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 2.50 Southwell Another interesting 2yr old event with just the six runners. Wicked Wench is the first to cross out, showed nothing on debut and unfancied will need to improve leaps and bounds. Mousie was kept busy early season and did win a fast ground maiden at yarmouth over 5f, ran just ok in 2 claimers later on including one over 6f and didnt look as if she stayed and that will be stretched even further on this surface and was well held on reappearance and wolverhampton last week. Scrooby Doo boasts plenty of course form but attitude has stunk at times including when finally winning last time out in a weak course maiden has 12lb to find with Quite A Thing and main hopes rely on her course form but just cant touch her anymore with her tail flashing and attitude and also yard in bad form. Sonko is another that boasts course form with a nursery win off 49 over a 5f, has struggled off marks in top 60's which means he has a bit to find again with Quite A Thing infact 15lb if Quite A Thing is really worth a mark of 84 is questionable but even so. Le King Beau has travelled well in his races out in front he has attracted plenty of money in races to suggest he has been working well and perhaps looks a little overpriced at current prices if the drop back in trip has the desire effect, drops 2f today having looked comfortable in front for 3/4 of the race over a mile last time out and this just might be the key to him and is defenetily worth a saver against questionable principle who should take all the beating on ratings. That all said Quite A Thing is the class act in the field well clear on official ratings, rated 84 been generally kept to small fields and therefore might not be worth the mark officially but even so has raced against some good sorts and should take all the beating if coping with the fibresand, both wins have come on the polytrack including impressive debut win when making all and would be no surprise to see them push on with her and I believe she would be an odds on shot back on polytrack so could be a steal at 11/8 with a yard going ok and has a 22% strike rate on surface. 3pt win Quite A Thing 11/8 pp 1pt win Le King Beau 6/1 pp

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 5.35 Kempton Awful race to kick things off, Disturbia has shown enough to suggest he is capable of winning a race at some point but a 3rd last time out in a weak maiden isnt form worth getting to excited about and handicapper rised him a 1lb for that which looks a bit harsh, Fallon is up causing a slightly false price in my opinion (he has ridden before and failed). Musashi is another that has suggest another win isnt out of her reach in a weak race like this but having to carry top weight from a wide draw is off putting despite him being below his last winning mark and blinkers dont seem to have had the desired effects recently this time round. Croix Rouge suggested he was returning to form recently but yet to finish in the first 3 in 14 starts on the AW and bombed out here 3 weeks ago so well worth avoiding. Summer Glow looks a good bet at around 9/2. He is one of the most unexposed runners and makes the trip over from Ireland to run here although yard do have the odd runner here and strike rate not great 1 from 16 but he looks to hold a chance on form aswell. He was raced in sprint maidens but has made a comeback in staying handicaps, the best piece of form is his 2nd at Clonmel in a big field handicap hanging left in the finish and not quite reaching the winner no sign of the hanging last time out but for the 2nd time he bombed out on the polytrack at Dundalk hopefully it is just the course and not the surface that is the problem and can return to that Clonmel form with a decent claimer taking off a handy 3lb. 2pt win Summer Glow 9/2 bet365 6.35 Kempton A few horses in this race fall into the frustrating catergory, the newcomers make little interest from yards not known for 2yr old winners and breeding nothing special, the others that have had a run deserve to be at the bottom of the betting on what they have shown and all need to improve. Cherezard is forever the bridesmaid in his races had plenty of opportunities including in small fields when on ratings he is clear favourite, she ran her race last time at Ffos Las with Swedish Rhapsody 3 lengths behind and the blinkers need to have a massive effect to reverse that form. Poppy has looked all about speed in her last 2 races and not sure she needs this step back up in trip despite a good run last time out when finishing well clear of rest of field only finding Queen Race too much who had the run of the race upfront and nothing got to her that day. The most interesting runner has to be En Hiver, interesting she is kept to maidens when she looks to have been allotted a fair mark off 67 having shown plenty of ability in 3 starts to dates including 2 runners around here over 7f, defenetily shaped as if a drop back in trip would suit and yard in very good form despite being drawn out in the car park she will be held up anyhow so perhaps not quite so bad in a poor race. 2pt win En Hiver 3/1 bet365 7.35 Kempton Just a quick one here as not best at 2yr old races but Goldream makes plenty of appeal to me having appeared on the AW recently. Made an encouraging debut in a decent Newmarket maiden when 6th, stepped up on that next time out again at Newmarket when 3rd behind the very impressive Most Improved who has since been 3rd in Dewhurst (G1) beaten less than a length, the rest of that maiden has worked out extremely well with the 2nd winning next time out impressively, 6th and 9th all won next time out and several others have finished placed since and looks a typically strong maiden. Found a Go Dolphin improver too good on first try on AW but still beat the rest of the field comfortably, did too much upfront last time out in testing conditions and should be much more at home back on the AW from a good draw and on what looks a workable mark if he can return to the Newmarket maiden form. 2pt win Goldream 6/1 betfred 9.05 Kempton Daruband is a worthy E/W bet, he is a Go Golphin cast off who failed to complete on 2 starts for Chapman but shaped much more encouragingly for new stable the Mccabe yard from a bad draw had to go the long way round throughout but stayed on well in a race when little got into it from behind and if building on that effort with cheekpieces fitted for the first time he could be there in the shake up despite the bad draw again. 2pts e/w Daruband 9/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Have taken 13/2 on Citrus Star 3.10 Lingfield tomorrow price wont be around for long reason to follow prob tomorrow now!

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 7.00 Kempton Theres no denying this is an awful event and it takes a brave man to have a bet in a class 7 event when all the runners are in this grade simply because they dont win very often these days. Farmers Dream has threatened to win a race and has run well here before but is a 1lb higher since that good run and has since failed to repeat that effort, wide draw also off putting. Lightning Spirit got as close to win as he ever has last time out in this grade and over this distance at Wolves and remains on the same mark, Father and Son team up again which has been a potent combination this season with a 26% strike rate but has shaped as needing all of a mile and further and therefore is opposable once more over the mile trip for me at a very skiiny price at 3/1 with the draw also been unkind. Hi Spec makes limited appeal atleast she does know how to win and showed much more last time out in this grade at Wolves when plugging on for fifth after the front 2 had flown. Handicapper giving her a real chance dropping her a further 2lb from that run and is now 2lb below her last winning mark in this grade in January now had a couple of runs since break so should be fit enough to make her presence felt. The other that could be dangerous to dismiss is Tinkerbell Will who might not be fully exposed and may still have more to give, never showed much on the AW which is a worry but hadnt shown at all until recently when finish a good 3rd behind the rapid improving Camberley Two and got off the mark at Yarmouth over this trip off a 4lb lower mark than todays, of course Yarmouth form always dubious but she won well that day to suggest a 4lb rise wasnt harsh and the 2nd also won next time out giving the form some substance. Worth forgetting her next run again at Yarmouth on soft conditions and should be better suited to these faster conditions tonight from a good draw in stall 4. Its also worth noting that her win came after a 50 day lay off and she runs here tonight after a 60 day lay off and she just maybe better fresh. 1pt win Hi Spec 12/1 vc 1pt win Tinkerbell Will 7/1 vc 7.30 Kempton Much better group of animals some of these AW regulars and then a few improvers. Palazzo Bianco is currently around 3/1 with the rest of the field 8/1 or bigger and as far as i can see theres value to be had against the favourite, he got off the mark at the 4th attempt in a decent enough handicap on turf off a mark of 76 but has since been expensive to follow off his new mark and hasnt really had any excuses from what I can see looking very one paced last time out in testing conditions and shaping as if a drop back in trip wouldnt do any harm doesnt get that today so is opposable in my opinion. May Contain Nuts looks a huge price starting to look a bit hit and miss but clearly has plenty of ability. Only had 2 starts on AW 1 on polytrack in a maiden at a huge price so hard to gain anything from that and then was disappointing at Southwell and should have done better really considering he is brother to very useful fibresand specialist Lucky Punt. But put that behind him next time out winning comfortably at Ponte went up 4lb for that effort but was then tailed off last time out at York, takes a 2f step back in trip which might help and it was also reported that he didnt like the good ground and therefore a faster surface should suit and has bounced back once and would be no surprise to see him bounce back again and is at a good price to do just that. The other that interests me is another lightly raced sort in Phonic who wasnt seen last year having shown some promise in maidens in 2009, showed nothing first 3 starts this season but seemed to have come right on the back of another 100 day lay off last time out over this course over 12f, staying on well that day to suggest a step up in trip would suit whether 2miles is too much we will find out and not exactly bred to appreciate but with a yard that know what theyre doing and also going well and clearly unexposed on this surface. 1pt win Phonic 9/1 bet365 1pt e/w May Contain Nuts 20/1 bet365 8.30 Kempton Very brief one, just feel Beat Route is worth a small wager, usually races in class 4 and 5 and drops into this class 6 event for the first time in a long time and last time he dropped into class 6 brought about an improved effort which pushed his mark back above the ceiling for the grade. Has won off this mark before and apprentice takes off a handy 5lb for all I dont rate her massively. He showed enough last time to suggest he is capable of running well staying on well enough. Slightly better drawn tonight and would like to see a more positive ride in this grade. 1pt e/w Beat Route 8/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread Forgot to put these in here this morning were posted in daily thread! 1.40 Lingfield Interesting end of season maiden again with several of the big yards represented. Go Dolphin 2yr olds typically going well at this time of year yet again and they run Al Andaleeb but ran well below what you expect last time out and would need above average improvement to be winning this. Pearl War has been given 2 months off since running 4th in a hot newmarket maiden which has worked out well but concern as to why she has been off track for so long, draw also not ideal. Shabora comes from a hot stable at the moment but finished behind Strasthnaver on that day and once the penny dropped Strathnaver ran the best race of the two having ran very green. The form of that maiden is starting to look weak in places and that is the obvious concern. For me Scarlet Belle is worth a very small bet having shown a huge amount of promise in a 14 runner maiden at Salisbury, was a 25/1 shot that day with young apprentice riding, Mullen takes over today and yards runners tend to come on for the run, bred to appreciate more of a test of stamina than todays 7f is likely to provide but is related to a a decent Group 3 1mile winner at 2yr old Neatico and if they make full use of her stamina from the front would expect a bold show! 1pt win Scarlet Belle 11/2 VC 3.10 Lingfield Fantastic looking handicap for the grade. Seek The Fairland is becoming expensive to follow on his beloved surface, often sent off a short price because he is so well handicapped on his best form but questions now have to be asked as to whether he is as good. Recent efforts on turf awful and although never won on turf has shown some good form on the grass which suggest to me he is badly out of form and on the face of it an awful price at 15/2! Cannot touch Call To Reason at 5/2. Not stood much racing and has usually had long gaps between races and is the most unexposed runner in the field. But takes a drop back in trip which looks far from ideal considering he was running on at the finish at a mile last time out and has once run on the polytrack at Kempton and bombed out. A couple of years ago Mr Willis was nearly unstoppable round here in handicaps starting his winning spree of a mark of 50 last win came off 84 and was 2nd off a mark 90. Now rated 89 and hasnt quite hit the same level for new connections in past year or so but he has been campaign over 9f, 10f and 12f on turf recently and takes a massive drop back in trip to 7f and is 3 from 6 over CD and at 25/1 looks a huge price from a good draw in stall 5. Steed won last time out but that was off a hugely different turf mark of 68 and has to run off 94 under penalty back on the AW perhaps one of the biggest differences in marks I have ever seen, did win 5 times on the AW last winter but 4 of them were on the fibresand one was on polytrack at Wolves off a mark of 66 and is gonna have to pull of a massive career best back on polytrack. We Have A Dream ran well in a decent looking handicap for a Brighton one admitly had the run of the race but showed his fantastic attitude again only just failing and when he finds his form he often holds it well and can often provide back to back wins so would be no surprise to see him go well again today from the front and might get a soft time today although there are 2 other front runners in the field Star Rover and R Woody both have to prove stamina for 7f that is a problem for him and has the plum draw in stall 1 if he can get out and doesnt get trapped. Citrus Star has shaped much better than his finishing positions suggest last twice staying on well in big fields, he has slipped a long way in the weights like many of the yards runners having had a very quiet season but have had a few more positives recently. Draw hasnt been kind out in the car park in stall 14 but he has to be delivered late so hopefully not the worst thing, does also have to prove he handles polytrack but is dangerously handicapped having won off 99 at goodwood over 7f last year rated 92 now! 2pt win Citrus Star 13/2 vc 1pt e/w Mr Willis 25/1 vc 1pt win We Have A Dream 11/1 vc 3.40 Lingfield A listed event with a few that have something to prove! Jacqueline Quest is the clear best on official ratings but has shown plenty of attitude and looks well worth opposing. Mosqueras Romance doesnt have much to prove unlike Zoowra who has to prove she handles the surface aswell as proving she has trained on. Mosqueras was runner up in 3 listed events on polytrack and again on the turf aswell, had a light season to date and comes here fresher than most with just a run in Germany finishing second at this level which should have put her spot on, does little wrong in races and attitude not a concern despite all the 2nd and is surely only a matte of time before she picks one up. 2pt win Mosquearas Romance 9/2 Bet365 4.40 Lingfield The Johnston yard is a yard I can never get right and probably get egg on my face again today but I just cant fancy Medal Of Valour, having shown little on debut but left that behind next time out at Pontefract winning by nearly 4 lengths but was again unfancied that day and the 2nd doesnt look a solid yard stick having been beaten at short prices on all 3 starts now and rest of the form behind looks poor and a mark of 75 might be a bit harsh on what he has achieved but of course open to improvement. Nibani shaped much better last time out admitly that was in a claimer probably not run to suit but whether he is quite worth his mark of 70 is debatable in such a good race. Green Wadi is a frsutrating character often threatened to win races last winter but failed to do so, finally got his head in front last time out at Kempton in first time cheekpieces which are retained today, was a comfortable winner and the 2nd has ran well since so a 5lb rise looks fair and still looks well handicapped on best form and Ryan Moore teams up with his dad and they have a 26% strike rate this season. The other that looks massively overpriced is course specialist Kiss A Prince who won this last year off the same mark he runs off today, but he won next time out last year aswell off a 4lb higher mark, not done much since on turf and on polytrack (mainly over inadequate trips) therefore mark slipped back but of the one good run since those wins was over CD when a never nearer 5th again showing a clear liking for this CD and has to be of interest. 1pt win Kiss A Prince 11/1 vc 1pt win Green Wadi 13/2 Hills

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 6.10 Wolverhampton Supreme Spirit won on penultimate start rised 3lb for that effort but failed to build on that effort next time out in slightly softer conditions, perhaps an excuse but the fact the win came out of knowhere is a big concern, makes AW debut and also steps up in trip! Green Apple won over this course over 6f in a weak 5 runner maiden in February, did win well but the fact Mazovian finished so close who has become a poor handicapper off a mark in the mid 60s makes his mark of 72 look high enough and hasnt done enough to suggest he is about to cash in off that mark. Polemica won well on penultimate start but was never travelling last time out wouldnt mind betting something was wrong as she has since been off for over a month, but does now need to bounce back but wide draw and the fact this looks a strong race for the grade all look against her but could easily bounce back especially since she is trained around here which must have a benefit. Swift Breeze won a maiden in nice style on debut showing a good attitude to do so and that form has worked out reasonably well with the 2nd winning next time out and winning a handicap off a mark of 75 Swift Breeze is rated just 67 now but has since disappointed in 3 starts with just limited promise in handicaps since finishing well on first 2 handicaps, raced with the choke out last time over 9f should be suited by drop back in trip but still needs to show more before becoming a betting proposition. Libys Dream has made a promising start to handicaps only just getting caught on the line at Kempton and then failed to catch the leaders last time out at Lingfield, lightly raced and open to improvement but stamina to prove over this extended trip but breeding suggests thats possible but probably not much value at current price. Wadha looks an interesting runner and at a price that looks fair. He has proved a little costly to follow and doesnt look the easiest ride but Fallon aboard again tonight and makes handicap debut of a reasonable looking mark, the form of his 4th around here on penultimate start is working out well with 3rd winning a handicap off a mark of 73 he is rated just 70 tonight and the cheekpieces removed tonight having looked awkward in them last time out a much better drawn than when last seen here would be no surprise to see him build on some ok efforts. Amelias Surprise is another lightly raced unexposed sort that could bounce back from a poor effort last time out, she won her maiden over CD in April in good style went on again to win a handicap off a mark off a mark of 70 at lingfield, given a break and came back with a more than promising run over CD off a mark of 74 probably needed the run but failed to build on that effort back on turf would be no surprise if she bounced back on the AW off the same mark as that promising 2nd over CD. 2pt win Amelias Surprise 5/1 boyles 1pt win Wadha 6/1 boyles 7.40 Wolverhampton If What And Maybe needed an uncontested lead at Yarmouth earlier in the week to get his head in front, dangerous is getting a soft lead again although not likely in this field and was falling in a heap at the line so had a hard race and 6lb penalty all make this look a massive ask but should be a good back to lay in runnin proposition for those interested in that. Pinotage 2/1? No thankyou she has horrendous attitude in a finish swishing her tail and look as if she had plenty left but only just went past Felisha in a finish at Lingfield earlier in month, ran off same mark over CD a week ago again showing poor attitude finishing well after taking a lot of persuasion and again swishing her tail, not sure this her trip although is still 5lb well in here so a chance but not for me. Bedibyes showed first piece of form last time out at Brighton that was on the back of a break so could possibly build on that but on all other form he has showed that isnt likely and shown nothing in 6 starts on the AW. Eastward Ho looks a massive contender having on what he has shown on his last 2 starts, a 2nd in a 5 runner claimer perhaps not worth much but did beat some reasonable sorts and again built on that in a competitive classified event last time out the form in front of him in that race not worked out but he was 3rd that day and beaten less than a length and 4th has since won well off a mark of 54 and he runs of 54 today with De Sousa in the saddle he looks a solid proposition having clearly trained on after break. Love Your Looks is also of interest having shown some promise in maidens especially his 3rd on 2nd start over Kempton on polytrack, 2nd last time out in a classified event looks good form again with the winner impressive and looked a class above that field and he was staying on well so the step up in trip likely to suit and makes handicap debut off a reasonable mark. 4pt win Eastward Ho 5/1 vc 1pt win Love Your Looks 6/1 bet365 8.10 Wolverhampton Small field and several of these probably have no chance on form shown. Ritsi has shown nothing recently and dropped rapidly in the weights. Hamalka is an irish raider that shown reasonable form for Elliot but has shown nothing recently for new connections. Tobago Bay looks well handicapped on hurdles form but hasnt been seen for over 4 months and never gone well fresh before. Smart George takes a massive step up in trip and has stamina to prove and hasnt shown any ability yet. The Absent Mare is another with stamina doubts having shown reasonable form over 12f here in Sept but poor effort over hurdles not great. Tigerino only has one win to date and that was penultimate start over CD off a 4lb lower mark than todays, was a no show at Redcar earlier in the week but that was over 14f and should be suited back at this trip and unexposed on the AW and certainly could have more to offer the main danger will be Blue Cossack who is another that appeared to improve for the step up in trip and the fitting of the blinkers, they need to work for the 3rd time round off a 5lb higher mark and will need a career best against a potentially fast improver. 2pt win Tigerino 9/4 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 5.50 Wolverhampton A brilliant looking handicap for the grade likely to be run at a sound pace with a few front runners in the field Frequency has a decent strike rate on the AW but they all come in claimers and sellers which is a worry despite a promising run at Newcastle in a handicap although is probably high enough in the weights off this sort of mark. Deliberation has drifted markedly in the over night betting which is worth noting on his polytrakc debut from a yard that do back their runners. He's had a good summer winning 3 times on softish ground and shaped well enough last time out on soft ground to suggest he is still in form but wide draw could be the undoing for a front runner despite a much lower AW mark infact is running off his last winning mark today but probably another day for him. Adventure Story is of small interest having shown some promise on AW debut last time out over this course finished reasonably well but did cock his head in an awkward position when asked to go on and the winner came from similar place so shame he didnt do better, has also failed to see 6f out a few times this summer despite a 6f maiden win as a 2yr old. Mey Blossom was a massive eye catcher earlier in the week showing much more promise than has done recently staying on from an unpromising position and if building on that she looks on a very dangerous mark 12lb below her last winning mark, only had limited starts on AW and hard to draw to much conclusion from it but she should get a good pace to chase at despite never winning over 6f she has shown some worthwhile form at that trip. Sarahs Art also caught my eye last week over CD, has generally struggled to find her form this season and has now changed yards and they finally seem to be winning with her and she is on a very good mark now 8lb below last winning mark at lingfield and has won 4 times here before and was staying on well last week. 2pt win Mey Blossom 7/1 boyles 1pt win Sarahs Art 8/1 bet365 7.20 Wolverhampton Woolfall Soveriegn has gone well fresh and is 2 from 3 over this course but inexperienced jockey takes the ride which is a concern. Global Village landed a typically big punt over CD for his new yard Ellison , only just got home 3lb rise is fair enough and still well handicapped on old form but got perhaps a soft time of things tracking the lead last time out and whether he is quite gonna get that opportunity with Dhaaman and Glenridding in the field. Glenridding has proved recently he isnt just a one trick pony having been more patiently ridden recently which he will probably need to do again tonight with Dhaaman in the field who is better drawn, he has been in great form recently winning off 68 up 3lb for that effort and still well handicapped on turf form having won off a mark of 79 at his beloved Thirsk but also has a good record here 6 wins from 22 and has to be of interest back round here again Needwood Ridge finished well here behind Glenridding last time out, 2lb better off with him today for 1/2 length and would need a strong gallop again to be seen to his best which is likely in this field and should be bang there another with good course record 2 from 7. 2pt win Glenridding 9/2 hills 1pt win Needwood Ridge 8/1 pp 7.50 Wolverhampton Defenetily the weaker of the 2 divisions with several of these struggling for form. Conry has slipped to 1lb below his last winning mark over CD but shown little form recently including over CD last time out. Lord Of Dance should appreciate this return to 7f and this course aswell where he last won off a 4lb higher mark but didnt really show enough on recent starts to suggest a win is imminent. Striker Torres is still 3lb above his last polytrack winning but is 2lb below last turf winning mark, but hard to know what to expect from him these days not the most consistent and yard quiet. The race is likely to be run at a break neck pace with Beauchamp Yorker in the lineup and that should suite Tourist who returned to form at long last last time out in a claimer, on official ratings had a bit to find but he was once rated in the low 90s won off a mark of 85, returned to polytrack clearly a positive and a good looking mark of 69 looks to good to be true if he really has returned to anything like his best! 5pts win Tourist 4/1 hills 8.50 Wolverhampton So Wise has improved since switched to handicaps and the AW but was disappointing inbetween 2 wins over CD when unable to get up with the pace and that has to be an obvious concern from stall 11 aswell as a 6lb rise but if getting up with the pace should hold every chance but has to be a saver only at current prices from the draw. Agilete has shown some sort of form in sellers but not enough to be of interest in handicaps despite tumbling mark despite winning off a mark of 79 2 years ago still has a lot to prove. If Nibani doesnt find this race coming too soon he cant be left out of contention on the back of 2 solid efforts having shown very limited form until then, only jsut failed last time out over 10f at lingfield in first time cheekpieces 2 days ago cheekpieces retained tonight so hopefully they work again and clearly gonna go up in the weights having finished well clear of the rest of the field and might be his last chance in class 5. The other that interests me is Stargazing who is a typical Botti runner having not stood much racing but seems to have found his niche on the AW over this CD winning twice earlier in the year ran creditably off higher marks in spring but showed there was still potentially more to come from him when 2nd off a 1lb lower mark last time out, clearly goes well fresh and another 66 day break to overcome shouldnt be a problem and although draw could have been kinder but if returning to hold up tactics shouldnt be a problem. 2pt win Nibani 11/2 bet365 1pt win Stargazing 5/1 bet365 1pt win So Wise 4/1 boyles

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 4.30 Wolverhampton Princess Gail has shown plenty of form on this surface including a win on penultimate start over CD, up 5lb for that effort and another good 2nd last week and up another 1lb for that run and doesnt look to have much left now and may just find some of these on better terms. Appjack is another with useful form on this surface, never shown much on turf including last time out having previously won over CD in very good style, up a huge 7lb for that success which looks a little harsh with the form really not working out and also the yard struggling for winners at the moment. Loves Theme cant be ignored having now proved she stays this trip in testing conditions at Yarmouth last week, she was close to reeling in the run away winner who got a soft time infront, runs off the same mark today and that was a clear return to the form she showed in the spring when winning a polytrack handicap off the same mark in february, also won a claimer on polytrack and if building on that effort she looks massively overpriced. That all said Shelovestobouggie looks very hard to beat on the back of her recent CD win, the first time tongue tie clearly helped, she travelled convingcingly throughout and in the end won well the 4lb rise she has reicved looks far from harsh and still open to plenty of improvement. 1pt win Loves Theme 12/1 vc 3pts win Shelovestobouggie 3/1 vc 5.00 Wolverhampton Snow Dancer has dropped to a useful mark infact his last winning mark on turf but hasnt been in the same form since and despite a return to polytrack is probably still opposable. Kidlat is a useful AW performer but hasnt been at his best over the summer including when returned to AW. Has had a short break and has never ran well when fresh. Elijah Pepper is another regular on the AW and did win last time out and the 2nd horse has since ran well despite not winning including off a 4lb higher mark, Elijah has only been put up 2lb but didnt appear to have too much left and has always failed off this mark and wide draw also not easy to overcome. The money for Vitznau this morning is very interesting considering the mark he has plummetted to now racing off 76 which is 4lb lower than last time out having shown a little more having caught the eye last time out finishing with a lot more life than previously. Last win came off a mark of 93 over this CD, very useful apprentice takes off a very handy 3lb! Lockantanks has to be of interest aswell considering his brilliant short head 2nd to Blue Moon on penultimate start, rider dropped whip which may have cost him and since then Blue Moon has won off a 5lb higher mark since in Ireland which reads well, never been as good on turf but ran as if still in form when finishing well on heavy ground, should be much more at home on AW and could be very dangerous if the pace is a true one. 2pt win Lockantanks 9/2 boyle 1pt win Vitznau 10/1 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's 2011 Flat Thread 3.00 Kempton Bit short of time so brief. The Which Doctor came back to his best last time out but didnt score by much and a 6lb penalty looks a tough ask despite well handicapped on best form but hasnt shown that for sometime and has never been the most reliable to back up runs. Genes Of A Dancer could be dangerous under his very capable apprentice rider who takes off a handy 5lb, won over a mile off a 6lb lower mark on penultimate start, well below that form over 7f last time out in first time cheekpieces (not on this time) and now takes a big step up in trip aswell and has to prove he stays this far. Lisahane Bog is undeniably better on AW and is well handicapped but does have a tendency to race quite moodily and has been tried in various headgear and has shown little interest in racing recently and yet to win over further than 7f. Abigails Interest has to be of interest (notice the pun ;)!) she showed a brilliant attitude to win over this trip at Brighton in soft conditions, not the same force over 2f further last time out around here but would be no surprise to see her go better back over this trip only 4lb higher, yet to win on the AW but has placed 7 times from 13 runs so does act on the surface doesnt look that well treated on those placed form but has been given an easy summer and could still have a little more in the tank. The other that interests me is Gallantry who rejoins a yard he has enjoyed much success with this will also be the yards first runner since rejoining the training ranks having quit over poor low level racing (yet theyre racing in a class 6 race???). Hasnt been in much form recently but did catch the eye last time out when staying on over a mile around here. Never won over further than a mile but does appear to stay based on some 9f runs at Wolves and is too well treated to ignore at a price, currently rated 57 having last won off a mark of 74! 2pt win Abigails Interest 11/2 bet365 1pt win Gallantry 12/1 vc 3.30 Kempton Bennelong has won 2 of his 3 last starts but they have been awful races including last time out when only just scraping home in a race that has worked out badly and although 2lb rise more than fair this looks a better race. Rosco Flyer showed a return to form last time out in 2nd time blinkers but niggling concern is that he is probably better over further and has crept back up the weights and will need the blinkers to work for a 3rd time and is a very in out performer. Colincas Lad rattled off a hatrick during the summer all of them under todays rider and clearly better on turf but therefore has a much lower AW mark to potentially exploit if able to mirror that improvement on this surface, last win came off 62 running off 58 todays and now rated 67 on turf so looks well treated, also well drawn for a front runner. The other that interests me is Nina Rose who is yet to win from 9 starts but showed a reasonable level of form as a 2yr old before missing all of last year and now finds herself on a mark of 57 which looks workable based on 2yr old efforts having placed off 71, she stayed on most encouringangly last time out over this course over a mile and a step up in trip looks sure to suit with same useful apprentice taking off the handy 3lb and should go close based on that effort. 2pt win Nina Rose 9/2 vcbet 1pt win Colincas Lad 9/1 vcbet 6.00 Kempton An extremely hard race to work out, a few front runners in the field should ensure a good gallop but there is also plenty of horses that need delivering late so it could be all or nothing in this race of those though I am more interested in the hold up sorts just simply because they look better treated. There has been plenty of money around for Mister Green which has to be of interest coming here on the back of a break, has gone well fresh in the past and has a decent record on this surface, 4 wins and 7 places from 27starts. Raced over ridiculously short trip last time out but now finds himself on his last winning mark and should have the race run to suit if the gaps appear. The other that looks well treated if the gaps appear is Cool Hand Jake who again has been well supported in the market from yard you have to respect, again he has gone well on the back of short breaks like today and has now dropped to 6lb below last winning mark. 2pt win Mister Green 9/2 coral 1pt win Cool Hand Jake 5/1 vcbet