BBOTD - 14th of Feb

[Aidymac]

Thunderstruck - Wolverhampton 4:10 Course and distance winner and course winner twice, formerly at the Glover stable who has been running quite poorly but its last couple of runs have brought back some encouragement that he could be ready to pounce soon. Dandy Nicholls is a fantastic trainer and this horse is down in the weights to its last winning mark now. Interestingly Thunderstruck had one or two gambles recently also without success so i feel the stable thought it should have done better than it has done. Runs off 80 tomorrow, which results in a drop of a total of 7 pounds since its bad effort five runs back in June at Kempton. Won off 80 in January 2010 and im expecting a bold showing tomorrow. 0.5 Points e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365) BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb 3:20 Catterick - Chamirey - Back Going to be very short here but by the same token he is going to be extremely hard to beat. 4 runner race but Almond Court has 43lbs to find so can basically be scrapped from the equation. Both of the other main market 'rivals' were pulled up lto. Both may be forgiven for those efforts for different reasons, but even if they put those runs behind them they will have to go some to beat the favourite here as they are 21lbs and 12lbs badly in respectively here. The favourite absolutely hosed up lto. He made every yard and clearly loves a mammoth trip as he was sent 15 lengths clear after 12 fences and yet continued to widen the margin, with an eventual winning margin of 27 lengths. I expect a similar performance here and although it may be a reduced winning margin, I cannot see him getting beaten here 1pt win @ SP

[ballyoisin_bomb]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb 1pt win Heavenly Chorus 4.20 Catterick 5/2 PP BOG won its last two starts over 2 miles and while this is over 2 mile 3 he did win over further in his hurdling days. a 9lb rise doesnt look prohibitive and it will be disappointing if he doesnt complete the hatrick. if having a punt i suggest to do so now while the price is at a drifting 7/2..i expect the price to be shorter on the off

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb 4:10 Wolverhampton - Snow Dancer - 1pt @ 20/1 (PaddyPower - BOG) Tough contest to call but this one is twice a C&D winner who improved for the return to this trip when finishing a close up 5th last time out, running into traffic problems in the mean time. She's entitled to come on for that run, having had a 60+ day break before hand and with some luck in running, she should be competitive. Good 3lb claimer on board, leaving her effectively running off 72, a mark that is below her abilities on her day (CD 2nd off 80) and this race should pan out in her favour. 20/1 looks much too big and I expect she'll be involved at the finish.

[Sporting Simon]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb Double Vodka 4.20 catt 1 pt win 4/1 BOG bet365 Looked like returning to form last time when beaten by an improving sort of Donald McCains over todays trip, and has C&D form aswell. The favorite Heavenly Chorus looks like its got a lot on its plate imo, effectively 16lb higher than winning a 0-112 last time, todays 0-134 rates a big step up in class and i'm happy to take it on.

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb 4.40 Wolverhampton Probably not the most competitive race on the card but could possibly have an over priced runner looking at tissue SP's. Norman Orpen is potentially still improving but on OR has a bit too find. Puddington Bear has been well beaten on all starts including claimer last time out. Mr Hichens was below form when last seen and has a lot to find on OR ratings. Lowther has returned to something like his best recently back on the AW with head gear reapplied but has a tendency to find one or 2 too good and will need a truly run race to be seen at his best and does have to prove he has the stamina for this trip. Fighter Boy is an interesting runner for an inform yard. He won a back end AW maiden last spring and was sent off a 40/1 shot in a listed event at newmarket and finished a good 2nd but both times suggested he would be better over further and its yet to be seen whether his mark now flatters him after that run. Been gelded since and not seen for nearly 10 months fitness has to be taken on trust. For me Suits Me is a very interesting runner, he is the only confirmed front runner in the lineup and could very easily get a soft lead here and could easily get his head back in front, usually consistent on the AW and looks well treated at these weights having been placed in listed and winter derby races at his best and has shaped a little better recently. 1pt win Suits Me

[hereforthep]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb 15.20 Catterick Chamirey - >Bet365 1 pt win @ SP Chamirey is a very tough horse to beat and is getting the hand of things over fences and dominated the field last time out and if he can produce the same again here he surely must be the winner

[Irishbugger]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb 2.10pm @ Wolverhampton 'Steel City Boy' Ran well last time out when somewhat of a gamble, beaten by Bluebok but revised weights much in this horses favour today. Cheveyo looks a danger but Shaw's stable gambles don't often go awry so I fancy them to recoup losses. Unfortunately I'm on at SP even though I think there'll be cash for it 'cus it ain't priced up anywhere yet and I'm not around tomorrow. :( NAP

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb 2.20 Catterick Decent little race and I like the look of Mac Aeda who had Be My Deputy behind at Market Rasen a while back, then pulled up, but returned to form lto at Doncaster, hinting this trip would be ideal. Mac Aeda 1 pt win SP

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb

2.10pm @ Wolverhampton 'Steel City Boy' Ran well last time out when somewhat of a gamble, beaten by Bluebok but revised weights much in this horses favour today. Cheveyo looks a danger but Shaw's stable gambles don't often go awry so I fancy them to recoup losses. Unfortunately I'm on at SP even though I think there'll be cash for it 'cus it ain't priced up anywhere yet and I'm not around tomorrow. :( NAP

I fancy this one tomorrow as well, as I have backed him on his last two runs. I don't think he was the subject of a gamble though LTO. I am pretty sure he started off 4/1 favourite in the morning and ended up returning 13/2. I could be wrong though?

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb You wont find many races more competitive than the 4.10 today, can make a strong case for every one of them. From a pace angle there's a distinct lack of pace in this race with Thunderstruck the only possible front runner and even he's been sitting in behind of late. With that in mind i dont feel comfortable siding with some who'll probably need a good gallop. With that in mind im guna take a punt on West End Lad 18/1 VC who should sit handy from stall 1. He won by just over 3 lengths two start ago over course and distance and is effectively 9lbs higher for this run. Form from that race has been franked with Buaiteoir and Hidden Glory winning since. Very small stakes on a big price in a race where i think some may struggle to come from off the pace. 4.10 Wolverhampton - West End Lad 18/1 VC E/W

[SIG]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb 14.20 Catterick A 16 runner hurdle and we have a few runners worthy of note, especially Eighteen Carat. LTO winner and the step up in trip is likely to suit, I think he should be able to overcome the weight penalty and be there at the end. No prices up yet and I have an early start tomorrow so this will be at SP. Hopefully he should be around the 5/1 mark at the off. Eighteen Carat - 1pt Win @ SP

[BKI Punter]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb 2:30 Plumpton Fruity O'Rooney 1pt win - 5/4 (Bet365) Quite simply should be favourite imo. Does have to concede a bit of weight but has stamina to burn and will enjoy the testing conditions. Alderluck is underpriced because he chased home Master of the Hall lto. Fruity O'Rooney is very consistent, handles fences well and has chased home some decent sorts himself in testing conditions. Alderluck has never won at this trip and may find it a bit of a stamina test.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb 4.10 Wovles Elijah Pepper looks ready to strike here.Better off with Star Links after last run where he was only beaten by a nose and with the stable firing lately I am really confident here. 1 Pt win 3/1 Bet365

[calculus]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb 3.50 Catterick - Gwyre (25/1 Bet365) 0.5pts E/W Had been running consistently well prior to getting off the mark in a weak event at Sedgefield last March. Hasn't found life very easy since being pitched into handicaps with three rather lifeless efforts but is dropping in the weights and whilst she is clearly no world beater, she has some ability and would go close here on her best form.

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb 0.5 e/w ballyegan only tote sport 7/1 at the moment this 4 and a half star rated horse can grab a place in this small field of 5 runners,with the 2 short priced favs going to go off at around 4/5 and 5/4 and the other 2 nags in the race really long shots 66/1 and a 100/1,in my mind its a 3 horse race over 3 miles in heavy going anything can happen to the 2 market leaders and the 7/1 is excellent value,i will be having a decent sized place bet on bf,the e/w is the bet,but with some real luck ballyegan can grab top spot

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb whoops above with stan james sorry

14.Feb 2011 10:28	Plumpton 14:30	Outright Betting, Ballyegan, 7/1	Open
		Single £0.50 EW, 1 bets, £1.00 (Pot.Ret. £5.38)		Open

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb Preview; Just one race at each meeting today and a puzzle at Catterick over 3 miles plus. The problem is that none of the fancied ones like Mac Aeda and Eighteen Carat have ran over this trip before and both have been handicapping. Eighteen Carat won nicely last time sets the standard with that run. The mare Steamtown could be the one take advantage if stamina becomes an issue, she won a point at Ballingarry over 3 miles and was given a quite ride last time over hurdles. Bet: 220 Cat: Streamtown EW (11/2 Bet365) *Dont think Sig will get 5/1 on Eighteen Carat somehow:\

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb 3.50 catterick Latin connection 11/1 win William hill Will forget this horses last run over 3m. The race before that this horse ran a blinder on handicap debut over cd finishing second to San deng. The horse made good headway that day through the field and hit the last pretty hard and was beaten just over a length. Think the horse must have a chance if he can build on that run.

[zoolander]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb Wolverhampton 2:40 Apache Ridge 7-1 BET365(BOG) 1 point win C&D winner and runs well around here, yard is in good form so a lot of positives from this selection today. A win and a couple of seconds recently so not beyond this horse today running of a decent mark. Draw advantage is ok too so the price looks a bit generous. The handicapper may have caught up with the favorite too so this looks alike sort to take him on with.

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb 3.00 Plumpton - Super Directa win at 4/1 bet365 bog Only 4 horses go to post here after Swiss Guard declared nr after running yesterday. Remember Now was formerly a flat horse in France and has ran in 3 Nov hurdles so far over 16-17f.Best effort lto under Bass when btn 3 1/2 lengths under heavy conditions at Lingfield improving by 15lbs on rpr. 5/6 fav at moment but looking at form of races contested nothing has came out and really franked form and price due to mccoy/Henderson combo despite AP already ridden horse to 17L defeat. Carries 11-10 today and in h/cap debut off 112 , most horse has carried is 11st so could struggle with that. Bishops Lady is carrying 4lb higher than win lto beating 83 rated Spider Boy by nk who does run a good race but max won off is 85 so in context of that win this looks harder. Win lto was over 2f longer and best placed efforts over that trip as well and never encountered heavy going Cannon retains the ride and has ridden horse last 5 so not getting as much value for 7lbs as if pro was on board lto plus Is 0-13 here Beau Lake is rated 93 over hurdles and best effort was last march when only 3l behind Lord Ragner off 10lb higher but hasn't shown anything since btn by 23L & 40+ rest of attempts.Brennan takes over from app but can't see him getting that much improvement to win given that horse has showed nothing at trip before . Which leaves me to this .. Super Directa ran over inadequate 2m4 on return of 10month break finishing a 15L behind the decent I've been framed. Super was making its h/cap debut off 114 of which it races today so at least has ran to mark. Drop down to min trip which he's performed the best at and has also raced on heavy before so should handle going. Trip and conditions to suit expect or hope it runs a good race.

[StuSimmy]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb 14:00 Plumpton With Pepite Rose now out of this race it really does open things up. I will be siding with the very much in form Alan King's horse Stan's Cool Cat who makes his debut over hurdles here today. He has raced 16 times previously on the flat and has won twice from those 16 races and placed a further five times. He is rated 74 on the flat currently but has won off a mark of 80 previously. This is however going to be his first race for Alan King today after moving from Paul Cole's yard and hes not been on track for 143 days. The stable has a good record here, especially with his novice hurdlers (64% strike rate - taken from RP's stat of the day) and with the stable in very good form at the minute gives me all the more confidence in backing this horse today. Win Stan's Cool Cat @ 11/4 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb 3.30 Plumpton - Lupanar 1pt win @ 3/1 (VC) Lupanar has come back into good form with the application of cheekpieces, finishing close seconds on two occasions, and third on another, this winter. Only beaten a head last time in a large field, under similar conditions, and appears ready to get his head in front. A mark of 121 is not restrictive - Lupanar has won off 128 previously. A mark of 117 may prove too much for Prince De Seuil given its only handicap success came off 105. Not beaten too far off 118 last time, but it doesn't look as well-treated as Lupanar. Frontier Spirit has the form to be involved but has looked a little awkward on occasions, holding his head high and not looking 100% enthusiastic to go through with his effort. Lupanar is at home on deep ground, stays very well, and has run well on both previous tries at Plumpton (beaten an accumulative 2l in two runs). Can take this race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb Plumpton 4.30 Stravita 1pt win - 4/1 Bet365 Jim Best in much better form now and has put an 8lb claimer in a very weak race. This mare should be well handicapped off 79 and additional 8lbs offset off her back should put her with every chance here. Not sure the fav deserves to be that short. He was raised 7lbs for his win and I doubt he has much in hand from the handicapper.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb KERSIVAY 2.40 Wolverhampton. 0.5 points each way. Needs to be at best, but good run last time and can build on that. This trip and surface isn't a worry and I feel the race will be run to suit. Looks a decent each way price at around 12/1.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb Latin America 3.30 Plumpton. 0.5points each way. Recent form is poor in context, but obviously something wrong and good to see a visor applied today. If that helps, which I think it will, then he can run to something like his best and go close. The trip and ground's not a concern and a mark of 110 gives every chance on best form.

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb Catterick 3.50: Latin Connection Irish raider who ran very well here on penultimate start when runner-up over C&D to San Deng in similar ground conditions. Has been raised in the handicap 6lbs for that effort, however may still be fairly well in. Disappointed over further LTO at Ayr so return to 2m3f should suit and with the 4th placed home horse from that C&D run going well today in the 2.50, the form looks fairly solid. Definite e/w value IMO at current 18/1. 0.5pts e/w @ 18/1 BetFred BOG

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb Wolv 4.10 - Lay Claim - EW at 10/1 BOG with Bet365 I've got a bad case of 'seconditis' at the moment so I'm going to do ones that I'd normally go 'win only' as EW bets in hope of getting some points on the table..............:loon Lay Claim is relatively lightly raced and looks to be getting his act together with a couple of decent runs lately Won last time out at Kempton, showing a good turn of foot to come around almost the whole field in the final furlong Just got his nose ahead on the line so has only gone up 2 pounds yard in decent nick and Tom qually keeps the ride having won on it last time This looks very competitive - as well as my usual handicap marks, stamina and speed figs that I look at for AW handicaps, I've tried a bit of a different appraoch as well - ranking the horses in terms of career runs and pounds above or below career best performances they need Some of the ones here need career best performances after 50-60 odd outings and other more lightly raced ones need 6-11 lbs better than they have acheived before My selection is amongst the lightly raced ones but only needs 2 lbs better than his previous best. (The other one who comes out well on this analysis is The Lock Master, but he's a bit short in the betting)

[Tamagin]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb 5.40 Wolverhampton - PICCOLO EXPRESS 1 pt Win 4-1 Bet365

Sorry a bit short due to lack of time but comes here in great form and is seeking the hatrick has has only gone up 3lb and should not be far away

[denovan6]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb

4:10 Wolverhampton - Snow Dancer - 1pt @ 20/1 (PaddyPower - BOG) Tough contest to call but this one is twice a C&D winner who improved for the return to this trip when finishing a close up 5th last time out, running into traffic problems in the mean time. She's entitled to come on for that run, having had a 60+ day break before hand and with some luck in running, she should be competitive. Good 3lb claimer on board, leaving her effectively running off 72, a mark that is below her abilities on her day (CD 2nd off 80) and this race should pan out in her favour. 20/1 looks much too big and I expect she'll be involved at the finish.

WOW:nana