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About calculus

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 06/29/1980
  1. 3.45 Newmarket - George Dryden (25/1 Coral) 1pt Win Highly tried since winning on career debut as a juvenile, has by and large been outclassed but was running against some top class horses. Ran well enough when 2nd and dropped back down to a more achievable grade LTO, runs in the same grade off the same mark here and should be suited by the likely strong pace in this big field. Trainer does not send many this far south and Buick looks a positive booking to me. 25/1 plenty big enough to my eyes.
  2. Tipp 8.30 - Shake The Bucket (12/1 Bet365) 1pt Win Yet to win on the turf on the flat but best form from last season makes him look very nicely treated here and should be up to running a big race if putting his best foot forward.
  3. A true legend and a real sad ending. I do think that the Clive Smith basing is all in poor taste, as misguided as he may or may not have been, it's hard to imagine that he did not have the horses best interests at heart. Lots of hearsay and conjecture going around but ultimately who are we to say what was best for the horse, I don't think it's appropriate to paint him as the villain of the piece when he will surely feel the loss more than anyone.
  4. 4.10 Pontefract - Water Clock (12/1 William Hill) 1pt Win Has not won a race for some time but is now 13lbs lower than at this point last season when he was contesting races like the Ascot Stakes and Northumberland Cup. This is a lot easier and he showed enough over timber during the winter to suggest that his heart is still in the game, put in an encouraging enough effort on his return to the flat two weeks ago and should come on for that with the yard in decent form.
  5. 4.20 Ascot - Caspar Netscher (33/1 Paddy Power) 1pt Win Returned to some form when placed last time out and has enough form in group races to give him a realistic chance of going close here, has run well at the royal meeting before and looks a bit of value in a relatively weak renewal.
  6. RA 2.30: Sixth Sense RA 3.05: First Flight RA 3.40: Postponed RA 4.20: Caspar Netscher RA 5.00: Robert Le Diable RA 5.35: Marzocco
  7. RA 2.30: Our Joy RA 3.05: Festive Fare RA 3.40: Adaay RA 4.20: Ervedya RA 5.00: Famous Kid RA 5.35: Bantry Bay
  8. 5.00 Ascot - Famous Kid (33/1 Boyles) 1pt Win No show in the Chester Cup lto but this should be a more suitable test, looks like he needs fast ground to really perform to the height of his ability and if he can show the same level of form as when running well on two occasions in Dubai over the winter then he is not without a chance. Yard generally pick up at least one of the handicaps at Royal Ascot each year.
  9. RA 2.30: Shanghai Glory RA 3.05: Not So Sleepy RA 3.40: Gretchen RA 4.20: Mizzou RA 5.00: Sugar Boy RA 5.35: Dutch Uncle
  10. RA 2.30: Tupi RA 3.05: Acapulco RA 3.40: Euro Charline RA 4.20: The Corsican RA 5.00: American Hope RA 5.35: Mothers Finest
  11. 5.00 Royal Ascot - American Hope (25/1 Bet365) 1pt Win Been following this one for far too long but still confident he can win a race of this nature if the cards fall right. Last run can be forgotten as he set a break neck pace running into a headwind. A reproduction of either of his good runs over this C&D last season off a 2lb lower mark would put him bang in contention. Needs to get a good tow into the race as he tends to stop when he hits the front but has an awful lot of raw ability and the price is more than fair imo.
  12. 8.00 Brighton - Tax Reform (9/2 Stan James) 1pt Win Dropped to a very workable and likely to have needed his reappearance when a credible 3rd at this venue. Still a maiden but not been with current yard long and gets his ground conditions for the first time since a close second off 3lbs higher over this C&D last year.
  13. I agree, the whole thing is subjective and like I said there are no end of intangibles to deal with. What I really meant is that there seems to be a mindset, largely perpetuated by the likes of Tom Segal and his ilk, where the term "value" implies a large price - e.g. backing a 20/1 shot is "backing value", this is obviously not necessarily true. Value can be had at the shortest of prices and the biggest of prices can be terrible value. The real subjective part is defining the true probability of a horse winning.
  14. But, as others have said, if you accept the assumption that a horse's true probability of winning is equal to it's SP (or more realistically, the SP is slightly smaller than the true probability of the horse winning) then it stands to reason that you will profit in the long run by beating SP by a sufficiently big percentage. In the case of horse racing it's not an exact science because there are so many uncontrollable and intangible variables but it's basic mathematical probability and is an irrefutable fact. I think part of the issue is that the term "value" gets bandied around a lot these days and I am not convinced that people always understand what it actually means in all cases.
  15. RA 2.30: Esoterique RA 3.05: Round Two RA 3.40: Mecca's Angel RA 4.20: Gleneagles RA 5.00: Royal Irish Hussar RA 5.35: Silver Wings