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Tennis - 8-14 November


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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November Have found some attractive matches in Paris after all, so I guess tennis season isn't over yet. 4 picks for me on Wednesday. Michael Llodra to beat John Isner. 2.10 @ VCbet (6pt) A bit late on this one. Hade a thought about it yesterday when Llodra was over 2.20. Still will have the Frenchman. Always fancy Llodra to do well on this surface in home tournament. They played each other last week in Basel. Llodra should have won that match in straight sets but messed up and lost in 3. He won the first set 6:4 and was serving for the match @ 5-4 in the 2nd. Failed big time. Another key thing here is that Isner's friend and doubles partner is out of the tournament and prolly they both wanna go home together. I'm talking about Sam Querrey. He lost to Monaco on Monday and then crushed out of doubles tournament with Isner on Tuesday. Llodra should be winning this one. Fingers crossed there won't be any choking this time around. Ivan Ljubicic to beat Stanislas Wawrinka. 2.20 @ VCbet (5pts) Not sure Wawrinka deserves to be a legit favorite here. I always fancy Ljuba on this surface and he's done pretty well in the past 2 tournaments which can not be said about Stan. He crushed out in the first round here last year to local player Guez and got lucky with a draw this time around, beating another nobody player Ouanna. Ljubicic is a former finalist in Paris and generally enjoys playing in this country. Bet based purely on form and ability. I see Ljuba having easier time holding his own serve than Wawrinka. Could be close won, but Ivan should get through to the 3rd round. Jurgen Melzer -4 AH vs Santiago Giraldo. 1.98 @ Pinnacle (7pts) Gift offer in my opinion. Unless Melzer throws in a no-match, he should hammer Giraldo. The Columbian is all about serve and has got no other decent skills. Melzer surely will have enough chances to break, it's all about taking them. Never expected to get 4 games handicap here, so taking it. By the way, the only match these two had, was this year in Cincy Masters. Melzer won that one 6-1, 6-4. Novak Djokovic -4.5 AH vs Juan Monaco. 1.88 @ 188bet (6pts) Djokovic is a defending champion here and will be playing as well as he can. Getting past Monaco should not be a problem. It's all about match-up and Djokovic has got good one regarding Monaco. He's beaten him 3 times out of 3 and despite dropping one set, has covered this handicap in all 3 matches, including 2nd round clash in the same tournament last year.

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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November

Have found some attractive matches in Paris after all' date= so I guess tennis season isn't over yet. 4 picks for me on Wednesday. Jurgen Melzer -4 AH vs Santiago Giraldo. 1.98 @ Pinnacle (7pts) Gift offer in my opinion. Unless Melzer throws in a no-match, he should hammer Giraldo. The Columbian is all about serve and has got no other decent skills. Melzer surely will have enough chances to break, it's all about taking them. Never expected to get 4 games handicap here, so taking it. By the way, the only match these two had, was this year in Cincy Masters. Melzer won that one 6-1, 6-4.
Giraldo certainly isn't all serve, in fact his serve is one of the worst in the top 100, his game is based around having very solid compact groundies, returning well and keeping UEs to a minimum. That said, if Melzer is at a good level he'll beat Giraldo comfortably as he should put him under pressure in pretty much every return game.
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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November

Jurgen Melzer -4 AH vs Santiago Giraldo. 1.98 @ Pinnacle (7pts) Gift offer in my opinion. Unless Melzer throws in a no-match, he should hammer Giraldo. The Columbian is all about serve and has got no other decent skills. Melzer surely will have enough chances to break, it's all about taking them. Never expected to get 4 games handicap here, so taking it. By the way, the only match these two had, was this year in Cincy Masters. Melzer won that one 6-1, 6-4. .
I can agree that Giraldo is not all about serve. I saw the livestream on De Bakker v Giraldo and De Bakker made 55 UE compared to Giraldos 22 over 3 sets with a tiebreak. Quite solid from baseline in rallies Giraldo but he had problems getting first serve in all match. He won simply because De Bakker had so many UE.
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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November

For all of you who are considering Murray match and for all of those (including me) who followed him vs Monaco I saw today some conversation with him where he admitted in "nice way" he was tanking that match because it would be to much for him to play singles and doubles in week before masters. As he is always at his best vs stronger opponents and those that he admire' date=' I would be careful with this one imho. Good luck anyway :hope[/quote'] agree with you Boycie, to be honest I actually think the price on Murray is quite good.

Murray is a dreadful player to follow and I feel sorry for his fans but when he plays against a big player or a player he knows he will have to play well to win he delivers especially in these 3 set masters events. His record is unbelievable.

He is not a betting dream like Serena, Nadal and previously Federer, but he lives for these big matches and I would say its safer to put your money on him.

The other thing that makes me like the 1.6 being offered for Murray is, Nalby hasn’t been at his sharpest in the last frew weeks, I watched him struggle against Cilic last week, and he did lose to Roddick in 2 sets. If Murray’s Serve is on point there is only one winner in this game.

I will think about it and probably pull the trigger before the game but I cant see Nalby winning this.

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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November

Sport Tennis Event Wawrinka v Ljubicic Selection Ljubicic Strength 10/10 Date 10/11/2010 Bookmaker/Price Stan James @ 2.25 Reasoning Finding it hard to consider Ljubicic as the outsider here. Give him edge of form, and generally edge indoors. Especially with the pace of these new courts should really help him on serve and getting his groudstrokes going through the court. Saw Wawrinka in round 1 against Ouanna who is very limited and wasn't impressed by Wawrinkas play.

Im thinking of taking Murray so I might as well take Llodra. I was a bit upset yesterday after Kohlschreiber lost to Belluci. Just didn’t expect it and the brazilian lost a final weeks ago on the challenger tourto some relative unknown player so it was a part bet against him although I knew the German had some injury worries a few weeks back. I havnt made losses but I’m chewing into my profits and its starting to kill me. Im going for broke today so Im betting for players on my streaky list, Cilic, Davydenko and Ljubicic.

The only other thing that makes me go for broke is there are also part bets against opposition players who have slowed down this season, namely Isner, and Wawrinka. I’m just betting against Belluci purely because I don’t rate him on this surface. I’m happy to play all 3 bets as they are close to evens so I don’t expect any behind the scenes activities.

Im going for outrights only, don’t need the stress of hoping players cover the handicap

Llodra 2.0

Cilic 1.5

Davydenko 1.5

Murray 1.6

All bets with William Hill

:hopeGL everyone

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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November

Sport Tennis
Event Andy Roddick vs. Jarko Nieminen
Selection Nieminen
Strength 10/10
Date 10/11/2010
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 3.51
Reasoning Well, Andy Roddick will play his first game here at Paris while Jarkko Nieminen is in the competition and has defeated already three opponents. Roddick's recently form has been really impressive after his quite long pause, he has played nice in Basel, but aslo I have to mentionate that he didn't played against players in a too good form. At Basel, Nalbandian didn't played his best level thats for sure as there were too many errors in his play, about the game agauinst Golubev I can say that Andy has been dominated in rallies and only the inconsistency of his opponent made the final result. Andy Roddick is a greta player and his form of the moment looked ok, but he is not a complete player and that changes a lot, especially his backhand has a huge influence on his overall defence, Andy is the player who depends a lot of his serve. Speaking about Jarkko Nieminen, well this player doesn’t have a big weapon to overpower opponents with but he is a complete player and he moves so well on the court, his deffensive skills are surely better than the american's ones. As I have mentionated before, Nieminen has already played three games here at Paris while for Andy this will be his first game and a question of form could change the situation as well as you never know how you'll accommodate to the new conditions. Nice value here. Good Luck!
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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November

Sport Tennis
Event Ivan Ljubicic v Stanislas Wawrinka
Selection Wawrinka (-1.5) GH
Strength 10/10
Date 10/11/2010
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.11 Well, Ivan Ljubicic's rating position is 17 at the moment, he really improved this season and last season as well, so no doubts that the success has been on his side. Ivan Ljubicic improvement is visible and there are no doubts that he did so well in 2010, but still despite all these things there are some aspects, more essentail I will say and here I mean the class difference. Ljubicic has won Idian Wells this season and also played well and won points, the reason he is on 17'th position at the moment, but despite this poistion he is still a player under Wawrinka's level. By during a season many things can be happen, an example why Ljubicic is rated better at the moment than Wawrinka, but the real essential difference between two players remains always the same. Ljubicic is overrated at the moment and we have some nice value on Wawrinka's side, a player who should dominate the rallies and overall the play today. All in all, Wawrinka's movement on the court is clear much better, Ljubicic is the player who depend of his serve and accuracy of his groundstrokes, otherwise he is in trouble as he can't find too many solutions on the court. Good Luck!
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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November Hi guys, 2 picks for the ATP Paris: 2nd round MURRAY TO DEFEAT NALBANDIAN @ 1.57 on pinnaclesports 3rd round MONFILS TO DEFEAT VERDASCO @ 1.6 on betfair Nalbandian is not at his best lately and when he is out-of-form Murray is a favorite to defeat him simply due to better consistency and better defensive skills. Verdasco looked poor since the clay season spring and his performances in the last couplel of months very really poor as was his form yesterday against semi-retired Clement making hugh number of unforced errors. Monfils is always at his best in Paris and should have more defensive and offensive skills for Verdasco currently.

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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November

Michael Llodra to beat John Isner. 2.10 @ VCbet (6pt) WIN Ivan Ljubicic to beat Stanislas Wawrinka. 2.20 @ VCbet (5pts) LOSS Jurgen Melzer -4 AH vs Santiago Giraldo. 1.98 @ Pinnacle (7pts) PUSH Novak Djokovic -4.5 AH vs Juan Monaco. 1.88 @ 188bet (6pts) WIN
Profitable day! :ok Really upset with Melzer. He should how covered the handicap as he was a break up in the 2nd set.
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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November 3 matches for me on Thursday... 1) Nikolay Davydenko to beat Tomas Berdych. 1.93 @ Pinnacle (5pts) Two players that have won this tournament before and both are totally out form at the moment. Fancy Davydenko here because of couple reasons. First of all is H2H stats which paint the picture. Dayv has beaten Berdych 8 times out of 9. The only loss was last year in Wimbledon. Not a surprise considering the fact that Davydenko has not learned to play on grass. Other than that he's been getting rid of Berdych every time they play. And only few matches have been close ones. I believe that Berdych is in worse form at the moment. Dropping just 4 games against Serra is really no big deal considering match-up problems. Serra's style of play when you can not hit a winner and just return balls against Berdych just doesn't work. Motivation will be key here as well. Although Berdych has won this event before and would love to do well again his mind is already on London. Davydenko has not to worry about London. He won't be there... 2) Gael Monfils -3 AH vs Fernando Verdasco. 1.85 @ Pinnacle (6pts) Verdasco has had enough this season. He really doesn't want to be here. Hadn't it been for tired Clement Nando would have been packing his stuff and moving to Madrid. He was set and break down. Clement got upset with Verdasco been allowed a challenge which took billion years. Clement dropped serve straight away after Verdasco won the challenge and that was that. He was never in the contest after that incident. Monfils also had his circus show against Becker, coming back from 5-1 down in the first set. Unless he performs such a silly display once again, he should be able to win this match with handicap. Verdasco certainly will help out. Serve is not there, forehand is missing couple meters etc. Like I said, he doesn't want to be here. Besides Monfils has to defend huge amount of rankings points from last year so can't afford to lose which I'm pretty sure he won't. 3) Novak Djokovic -4 AH vs Michael Llodra. 2.23 @ Pinnacle (7pts) Djokovic just about got away with -4.5 against Monaco yesterday and Llodra also did the job against Isner. As much as I'd hate to see Llodra go, he will lose today. Match-up problems all over here. Unless Nole serves tons of double faults, he will have no problems on serve. Don't think the same thing can be said about the Frenchman. His serve & volley style won't have it's usual success against Djokovic who has got nice variety to his return game and unless he'll be a bit lazy, he'll break Llodra's serve quite a few times. -4 games handicap looks very good here and it probably will be done with something to spare.

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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November Verdasco to win first set and lose the match 6.50 bet365 I'm taking a chance here. I think Verdasco will fight and still go down after winning first. David Ferrer 2-1? Hard to say how mutch Melzer wants to play in London singles after he's already qualified in doubles. Ferrer is tired and should have problems but still motivated to get to London. Melzer has little chances to reach London singles and I don't know if he will try hard enough today even if Ferrer is tired. Nikolay Davydenko 2-1 4.00 bet365 With no pressure Davy can play relaxed and Berdych can still get to London if other results go his way. Davy has the edge here and it feels like a 3 set win for him. Andy Roddick -3.5 1.72 bet365 Gublis isn’t playing well enough to really challenge Roddick. Roddick should be winning quite comfortable in straight sets. Challenger - Aachen Rajeev Ram vs Simon Stadler Stadler 2.25 bet365 I don't understand the odds here. Ram is suddenly a world class player after winning against Dimitrov 2-1 and it explains the odds but Stadler is german and plays in Germany and has a 1-0 h2h vs Ram after winning in straight sets in Greece last year.

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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November Welcome! 2 picks for me today: Roddick + Nole @ 1.44 in betsson all in. why? Gulbis in totally out of form and Roddick in last weeks plays very well, yesterday easy win against Nieminen, he is determinated to play in London and Paris is he's last chance to win this ticket. Nole is much better player than Llodra and Paris Master for Serbian will be some kind training before London, so i i don't think that Djokovic can have problems with motivation, he plays very well yesterday with Monaco, i hope today will be similar :) :hope:hope

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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November

3 matches for me on Thursday... 1) Nikolay Davydenko to beat Tomas Berdych. 1.93 @ Pinnacle (5pts) Two players that have won this tournament before and both are totally out form at the moment. Fancy Davydenko here because of couple reasons. First of all is H2H stats which paint the picture. Dayv has beaten Berdych 8 times out of 9. The only loss was last year in Wimbledon. Not a surprise considering the fact that Davydenko has not learned to play on grass. Other than that he's been getting rid of Berdych every time they play. And only few matches have been close ones. I believe that Berdych is in worse form at the moment. Dropping just 4 games against Serra is really no big deal considering match-up problems. Serra's style of play when you can not hit a winner and just return balls against Berdych just doesn't work. Motivation will be key here as well. Although Berdych has won this event before and would love to do well again his mind is already on London. Davydenko has not to worry about London. He won't be there... 2) Gael Monfils -3 AH vs Fernando Verdasco. 1.85 @ Pinnacle (6pts) Verdasco has had enough this season. He really doesn't want to be here. Hadn't it been for tired Clement Nando would have been packing his stuff and moving to Madrid. He was set and break down. Clement got upset with Verdasco been allowed a challenge which took billion years. Clement dropped serve straight away after Verdasco won the challenge and that was that. He was never in the contest after that incident. Monfils also had his circus show against Becker, coming back from 5-1 down in the first set. Unless he performs such a silly display once again, he should be able to win this match with handicap. Verdasco certainly will help out. Serve is not there, forehand is missing couple meters etc. Like I said, he doesn't want to be here. Besides Monfils has to defend huge amount of rankings points from last year so can't afford to lose which I'm pretty sure he won't. 3) Novak Djokovic -4 AH vs Michael Llodra. 2.23 @ Pinnacle (7pts) Djokovic just about got away with -4.5 against Monaco yesterday and Llodra also did the job against Isner. As much as I'd hate to see Llodra go, he will lose today. Match-up problems all over here. Unless Nole serves tons of double faults, he will have no problems on serve. Don't think the same thing can be said about the Frenchman. His serve & volley style won't have it's usual success against Djokovic who has got nice variety to his return game and unless he'll be a bit lazy, he'll break Llodra's serve quite a few times. -4 games handicap looks very good here and it probably will be done with something to spare.
I suppose you didn't watch Djokovic yesterday, he was quite struggling and could easily lost that match. I am not saying Llodra is better but be careful as Djoko said he got some fatigue problems and problems with adopting to the surface which is by the way fastest on the tour and all players are shocked with how fast it is.
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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November Cilic didn't won two in row since June and USA hard courts, and I'm quite sure he will wait for next year to break this record. Also in our daily press he said he is in some crises, depression etc and he don't know what to do.. (He start to date with some hot chick in more or less the same time so I suppose he think more about some other balls but tennis ones) This worth's if Murray is okay with his wrist and I hope someone can give some more info about that. He was tanking against Monaco last week and he admit that, but this is Masters where he perform his best usually. So.. Any inside info from British punters about his injury would be more then precious :ok

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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November Sport Tennis Event Lacko - Beck Selection Lacko -2.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 11/11/2010 Bookmaker/Price Nordicbet @ 2.05 Reasoning I giving more chances to take win in this game. Lacko in my opinion is too good for Challanger tournaments, but in last time losing in big tournaemtns and want go to Ortisei for the title in my opinion. Played Q here, won all in straight sets and won two matches in main draw - beat two really good Russian players - Kudryavtsev and Kravchuk. Lacko tennis is on the really good level in this tournament. Beck in my opinion is worse pla yer than Lacko, in this tournament played againsr poor rivals - two Italy claycouters Viola and Crugnola and many times not look great. Lacko can be too hard for this player. For me 7-6, 6-3 ;)

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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November Sport Tennis Event Monroe - Ball Selection Monroe +3.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 11/11/2010 Bookmaker/Price Nordicbet @ 1.85 Reasoning Two years ago on this surface Monroea beat Ball on this surface in two sets. Monroe here look really good, won two matches in Q and lost only 8 games, but play against poor players.. In first round of the main tournament played against other USA player, experience Kevin Kim and destroy this guy 6-1, 6-4 without any problems. Monroe is in form. Ball in last time is without form, only serve, serve, serve.. In first round here played against no name for me - 971 on the world Boris Conkic and won after 3 sets.. Conkic lost this match because make 14 double faults. Ball with tennis on this level can lost against Monore. Go Nicholas! Sport Tennis Event Bogomolov - Witten Selection Bogomolov -3 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 11/11/2010 Bookmaker/Price Nordicbet @ 1.80 Reasoning In my opinion Bogomolov take win here without too many problems, propably in two sets. Alex played againse Jesse 8 times in career, first match in 2005.. Alex leading 6-2, but lost one time on the clay surface and one time retired.. In this year beat Witten 2-1 on this hard and one month ago in Tiburon eat Witten 6-1, 6-0. Both players in first round played 3 sets, Alex against McClune(big server, 13 aces..). Jesse against Young(look really bad). I see two sets for Alex Bogomolov. this is better player and HC line is good to play.

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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November Sport Tennis Event Martin - Nishikori Selection Martin +6 Strength 10/10 Date 11/11/2010 Bookmaker/Price Nordicbet @ 2.00 Reasoning In my opinion this line is too high, Martin have more chances in this match. Martin is left hand player, have experience - nice serve and is good on the net. Here won 3 matches in Q and in main draw beat Quigley in two sets. In every match first serve look very confident. In my opinion Martin in this match can not lost too many serve games.. Nishikori off course is better player etc. In first round here played against unexperience John-Patrick Smith who take wild card for this tournament. Nishikori sometimes look not great and this is chance for Martin. Nishikori win it, but after close match. :dude

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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November Sport Tennis Event Murray v Cilic Selection Cilic Strength 10/10 Date 11/11/2010 Bookmaker/Price Sportingbet @ 4.33 Reasoning This seems like a tournament for guys coming back into form, and Cilic is one of them. He's got a great game but has been dreadful most of the year, but that could mean he's fresher than others at this stage. Murray showed great fight and willingness to chance strategies yesterday against Nalbandian, and could be in for another fight here. He had a bit of a scare with a wrist injury, not going to comment too much I have no idea how it is, but it could be something and no need to risk all before the O2. This is a standout price and seems worth a try for fun.

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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November

He said that it was because of the adjustment he made to his racket (something with strings' date=' so they feel harder) and that it happened before to him, but that he should be ok for the next match. That is what I know.[/quote'] Now i put complete story, commentator said that yesterday but I didn't hear well. His strings were soft and so the ball power get reflected more on his hand and then after he get new rackets switched to hard he felt more comfortable. I think bigger problem is his head, and probably he want revenge for last year US open where Cilic demolished him but now Cilic is far from that form. He was struggling against Stahovsky and Murray for sure wont miss that much opportunities.
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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November

Verdasco to win first set and lose the match 6.50 bet365 I'm taking a chance here. I think Verdasco will fight and still go down after winning first. David Ferrer 2-1? Hard to say how mutch Melzer wants to play in London singles after he's already qualified in doubles. Ferrer is tired and should have problems but still motivated to get to London. Melzer has little chances to reach London singles and I don't know if he will try hard enough today even if Ferrer is tired. Nikolay Davydenko 2-1 4.00 bet365 With no pressure Davy can play relaxed and Berdych can still get to London if other results go his way. Davy has the edge here and it feels like a 3 set win for him. Andy Roddick -3.5 1.72 bet365 Gublis isn’t playing well enough to really challenge Roddick. Roddick should be winning quite comfortable in straight sets. Challenger - Aachen Rajeev Ram vs Simon Stadler Stadler 2.25 bet365 I don't understand the odds here. Ram is suddenly a world class player after winning against Dimitrov 2-1 and it explains the odds but Stadler is german and plays in Germany and has a 1-0 h2h vs Ram after winning in straight sets in Greece last year.
Could have lived without Stadler but nice profit with two big ones and Roddick hcp :D
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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November

Sport Tennis Event Murray v Cilic Selection Cilic Strength 10/10 Date 11/11/2010 Bookmaker/Price Sportingbet @ 4.33 Reasoning This seems like a tournament for guys coming back into form, and Cilic is one of them. He's got a great game but has been dreadful most of the year, but that could mean he's fresher than others at this stage. Murray showed great fight and willingness to chance strategies yesterday against Nalbandian, and could be in for another fight here. He had a bit of a scare with a wrist injury, not going to comment too much I have no idea how it is, but it could be something and no need to risk all before the O2. This is a standout price and seems worth a try for fun.
Tailing you on that. First - there is always a chance Andy amused himself with a playstation again, and second - only two upsets for R16 (Llodra, Melzer), this is simply not enough :-)
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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November

Tailing you on that. First - there is always a chance Andy amused himself with a playstation again' date=' and second - only two upsets for R16 (Llodra, Melzer), this is simply not enough :-)[/quote'] Cilic really should have had set 1:sad
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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November Sport Tennis Event Roddick v Soderling Selection Soderling Strength 10/10 Date 12/11/2010 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.21 Reasoning Tough match, but I like getting odds against on Soderling. Generally will prefer him to Roddick indoors, particularly in Europe. Soderling this week seems to be starting poorly, but is able to get his game together and looking effective. Roddick is looking sharper than usual at this time of year, so this game should be good. Head to head is 2-2, and interestingly the outsider has won all 4 meetings! Sport Tennis Event Davydenko v Llodra Selection Llodra Strength 10/10 Date 12/11/2010 Bookmaker/Price Stan James @ 2.20 Reasoning Have to back Llodra at odds against after his performance today. He is on top of his game and he could have hand picked this surface. Playing at home and making a case for a singles spot in DC, he's incredibly pumped up. Davydenko seems to be coming back to form, and showed a lot of fight against Berdych. Davydenko leads the head to head quite convincingly but Llodra did get the last meeting - maybe not relevant they haven't played for some time. This game seems to be about who can force their game onto the other player, and I'll back forceful Llodra to come through.

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Re: Tennis - 8-14 November Sport Tennis Event Roddick - Soderling Selection TB in first set Strength 10/10 Date 12/11/2010 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 2.75 Reasoning Odds are really good and I see value in this option. Roddick in two matches here give only one chance to break for rivals, but off course hold it. Won 80% points at the serve, make 21 aces and any double faults. Roddick the best weapon is serve off course. Play on TB here. Soderling is better player from the baseline, but too have incredible serve - no doubts in this. Won 67% points at the serve, concended two serve games, make 18 aces. Play one TB here. In h2h 4 matches and in this match 5 TBs.. Why not today in first set?

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