Jenno99 Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Any tips for this weekend Bairn? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted October 1, 2011 Author Share Posted October 1, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hi all, Apologies for the lack of updates. Not long back from a week's holiday (typically missing a 5/1 winner) and returned to some PC problems. I'll update things in a bit more detail in a few days time, but in the meantime, hopefully the following will go someway to helping me buy a Mac!... 01/10/2011 | Aston Villa v Wigan | £4.50 at 6.2 (32red) 01/10/2011 | Southampton v Watford | £4.50 at 6.2 (Bet3000) 01/10/2011 | Leeds v Portsmouth | £6.50 at 4.4 (Bet3000) 01/10/2011 | AFC Telford United v Hayes & Yeading | £7.00 at 4.05 (Pinnacle) 01/10/2011 | Lorient v Valenciennes | £6.50 at 4.33 (Ladbrokes) 02/10/2011 | Caen v Nice | £7.50 at 3.9 (Bet3000) 02/10/2011 | Sociedad v Ath Bilbao | £9.00 at 3.1 (Pinnacle) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Bit of catching up to do on the results, and not great reading... DateMatchOddsP/LBank (£500 start) 24/09/2011 West Ham 1 - 0 Peterboro6-£5.00£432.88 24/09/2011 Sheffield Weds 3 - 0 Exeter6-£5.00£427.88 24/09/2011 Morecambe 2 - 3 Bristol Rvs3.6£20.80£448.68 24/09/2011 Mgladbach 1 - 0 Nurnberg3.75-£8.00£440.68 24/09/2011 Motherwell 1 - 0 Aberdeen4-£7.50£433.18 25/09/2011 Rennes 1 - 1 St Etienne4.75-£6.00£427.18 01/10/2011 Aston Villa 2 - 0 Wigan6.2-£4.50£422.68 01/10/2011 Southampton 4 - 0 Watford6.2-£4.50£418.18 01/10/2011 Leeds 1 - 0 Portsmouth4.4-£6.50£411.68 01/10/2011 AFC Telford United 1 - 1 Hayes & Yeading4.05-£7.00£404.68 01/10/2011 Lorient 2 - 0 Valenciennes4.33-£6.50£398.18 01/10/2011 Caen 1 - 1 Nice3.9-£7.50£390.68 02/10/2011 Sociedad 1 - 2 Ath Bilbao3.1£18.90£409.58 Also, regarding the questions on whether the system has performed badly early in season in previous years, I've had a bit more of a look into this... In each of the months August 2009, September 2009, August 2010 and September 2010, the system made a profit. In August 2010 in particular, it made a very big profit (over £200 from 11 £10 bets!). However, in 2008, it only broke even for August and made a slight loss in September (-£13), and in 2007, it made a loss in both months (-£63 in August and -£40 in September). Looking at all the Augusts together, the system has made a very good profit with an ROI of 27% to level stakes, but looking at all the Septembers together, it has made a slight loss with an ROI of -5%. Because there aren't too many bets in total involved when looking at figures for a calendar month, I'm not sure how significant these figures are. For example, looking at all Decembers, there is a slight loss, again with an ROI of -5%, but in all the Novembers in total, there is a profit of 51% ROI, and in all the Januarys, there is a profit of 47% ROI. I'd struggle to put a theory on why the system didn't perform in December, but performed very well in the months immediately before and after it. Splitting the leagues into before New Year and after New Year does show what might be a more significant difference as the number of bets involved is a lot higher. Only betting between August and December gives an ROI of 13%, while only bettting between January and May gives an ROI of 60%. So, I guess looking at this it might be worth only betting small or even not betting at all until New Year, and then increasing the stakes after. However, looking at the 2008/09 season, before New Year gave an ROI of 47% compared to an ROI of 9% after. All of the figures mentioned here are to level stakes. I'll have a look now at how they differ when using the current staking plan, but I'm pretty sure they will be very similar. Hope this all helps (and doesn't confuse things further!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins I second this..........form based professional tipsters who use their own ratings are having a woeful start. I know of three who have lost a lot already........not to mention my free SoccerSystemBuilder system' date=' it's not looking too clever right now!!![/quote'] I am EXTREMELY intrigued by this comment,please Matthew could you give me a few examples? the main reason I dont understand is that all the best teams are top or near the top of the leagues-unlike previous seasons I just cant think of too many surprise results....I really am surprised to read this..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins I am EXTREMELY intrigued by this comment,please Matthew could you give me a few examples? the main reason I dont understand is that all the best teams are top or near the top of the leagues-unlike previous seasons I just cant think of too many surprise results....I really am surprised to read this..... 'Surprises' are meant to happen, the favourite isn't supposed to always win, so it makes sense that a lack of 'surprise' results would cause problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins I am EXTREMELY intrigued by this comment,please Matthew could you give me a few examples? the main reason I dont understand is that all the best teams are top or near the top of the leagues-unlike previous seasons I just cant think of too many surprise results....I really am surprised to read this..... Form teams aren't necessaryily the best teams. How many times have you seen Man Utd scrape through 1-0 when not exactly playing well. Very rarely will a pro tipster select a top 4 team in any league across europe as they are constantly skinny on the odds front as they know that is where the majority of the money is going to be taken. What the majority of people are looking for is a way to assess matches, from various angles, to find a fixture where there are odds on offer that more than justify the risk in backing a team given the frame of the fixture. So I backed Scunthorpe and Newcastle at the weekend, even though they weren't favourites as I took the position that their recent form, assessed on numerous metrics, suggested they had more than the 29% and 32%, respectively, chance of winning the bookies gave them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumyat Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins English premier Season 2010-2011 - 191/380 favourites won = 50.3%. English premier Season 2009-2010 - 210/380 favourites won = 55.3% English premier Season 2008-2009 - 204/380 favourites won = 53.7% English premier Season 2011-2012 - 39/69 favourites won = 56.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins I appreciate the replies.I DO realise that profiting from soccer betting doesnt necessarily involve betting on favourites-I myself usually only bet on outsiders and am finding this season more straightforward than previous ones,hence my surprise-my question was badly worded. forget the fact that most of the best teams are doing well,I am still very surprised that form-based pro gamblers have had a woeful start... Apart from anything else,I thought that most pro gamblers either did not bet on results etc til october OR were quite cautious in august and september... It would be interesting to hear how other PL members have been getting on... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins BTW, forgive me,I have only just realised that Dumyats stats refer to the prem league only. Please forgive any ignorance on my part...but I was under the impression that hardly ANY prem league odds over the entire season are wrong!!! What with it being the most bet on league in the world...and all the stats being pretty widely known...so I wouldnt expect any pro gambler to be betting on the premier league..at least not on 1x2....except in running... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted October 6, 2011 Author Share Posted October 6, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 1 for the weekend... 08/10/2011 | Mansfield v Gateshead | £7.00 at 3.8 (Stan James) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris 10b Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 1 for the weekend... 08/10/2011 | Mansfield v Gateshead | £7.00 at 3.8 (Stan James) Hi Bairn should it be Mansfield v Grimsby? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins BTW, forgive me,I have only just realised that Dumyats stats refer to the prem league only. Please forgive any ignorance on my part...but I was under the impression that hardly ANY prem league odds over the entire season are wrong!!! What with it being the most bet on league in the world...and all the stats being pretty widely known...so I wouldnt expect any pro gambler to be betting on the premier league..at least not on 1x2....except in running... They are probably all somewhat wrong. It is likely that the wisdom of crowds actually skews the market away from the true odds slightly. But by my estimations, less than 20% of Premier League games are worth having a bet on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hi Bairn should it be Mansfield v Grimsby? Yep, apologies.... 08/10/2011 | Mansfield v Grimsby | £7.00 at 3.8 (Stan James) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins They are probably all somewhat wrong. It is likely that the wisdom of crowds actually skews the market away from the true odds slightly. But by my estimations, less than 20% of Premier League games are worth having a bet on. Would you mind explaining that?you seriously beleive that it is more likely than not that ALL the premier league prices are wrong!? heh,I know you are a mathematician,and ,presumably, make a profit from football so I am not out and out disputing what you say but I AM very very surprised! btw,I subscribe to a well-known tipping service......which has cost me nothing so far as I am on a 3 month trial.....and this saturday they gave 4 bets: orient to win at 11-4,afc wimbledon to win,burton to win at 3-1 these came in with 2-4 points on each.. the 1 loser was 2 points on wycombe at 6-4. this brings their profits so far to over 60 points....so I would be intrigued to know how much the 3 losing professional tipsters charge for their services!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moggis Posted October 8, 2011 Share Posted October 8, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins sorry bairn,I wiil try to make that my last post on your thread...I just have been very surprised by what I have read and I am keen to learn as much as possible about soccer betting... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted October 9, 2011 Author Share Posted October 9, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins DateMatchOddsP/LBank (£500 start) 08/10/2011 Mansfield 2 - 1 Grimsby3.8-£7.00£402.58 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 4 for the weekend... 15/10/2011 | Hartlepool v Wycombe | £6.00 at 4.6 (Bet3000) 15/10/2011 | Braintree Town v Bath City | £5.50 at 5 (Coral) 15/10/2011 | Schalke 04 v Kaiserslautern | £3.50 at 7.56 (Pinnacle) 15/10/2011 | St Johnstone v Inverness C | £6.50 at 4.2 (Boyle) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 2 out of 4.... looks like you're back on track, Bairn :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyVadah Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins hopefully the start of a similar run as last year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Hook Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Back with a bounce Bairn. Thanks, I managed to stick Wycombe in with a few other games. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stan1962 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Top tipping Bairn :clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Some good news at last!... DateMatchOddsP/LBank (£500 start) 15/10/2011 Hartlepool 1 - 3 Wycombe4.6£21.60£424.18 15/10/2011 Braintree Town 3 - 3 Bath City5-£5.50£418.68 15/10/2011 St Johnstone 2 - 0 Inverness C4.2-£6.50£412.18 15/10/2011 Schalke 04 1 - 2 Kaiserslautern7.56£22.96£435.14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 1 for tomorrow night... 18/10/2011 | Crystal Palace v Bristol City | £6.50 at 4.37 (Pinnacle) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 1 result from midweek and 6 picks for the weekend... DateMatchOddsP/LBank (£500 start) 18/10/2011 Crystal Palace 1 - 0 Bristol City4.37-£6.50£428.64 21/10/2011 | Cambridge v Lincoln | £5.00 at 5.5 (Coral) 22/10/2011 | Leicester v Millwall | £5.50 at 5.25 (Bwin) 22/10/2011 | Blackpool v Nottm Forest | £7.00 at 4 (Bet3000) 22/10/2011 | Sheffield Weds v Colchester | £6.50 at 4.5 (Ladbrokes) 22/10/2011 | Hertha v Mainz | £7.00 at 4.1 (Bet3000) 23/10/2011 | Betis v Vallecano | £5.50 at 5.15 (Pinnacle) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Really fantastic! Millwall and Nottm Forest won so far... :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Hook Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Cheers Bairn, I stuck forest & millwall in with some others in trebles & have already made £45 from a £6 stake :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheImp Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Vallecano just won as well....3 wins isn't bad at all! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hi Bairn1, A nice weekend for you to get you back on track. I'm curious to know what you thought of Atalanta this weekend and why it didn't crop up. Massive value on my ratings (and others I know of). Keep up the good work. Matt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilbertm Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Atalanta didin't came up because bairn1 doesn't cover Italian leagues (away teams lose more often than in other leagues, and it's hard to predict in software which match is fixed ;) ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins DateMatchOddsP/LBank (£500 start) 21/10/2011 Cambridge 2 - 0 Lincoln5.5-£5.00£423.64 22/10/2011 Leicester 0 - 3 Millwall5.25£23.38£447.02 22/10/2011 Blackpool 1 - 2 Nottm Forest4£21.00£468.02 22/10/2011 Sheffield Weds 2 - 0 Colchester4.5-£6.50£461.52 22/10/2011 Hertha 0 - 0 Mainz4.1-£7.00£454.52 23/10/2011 Betis 0 - 2 Vallecano5.15£22.83£477.35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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