bairn1 Posted September 11, 2011 Author Share Posted September 11, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins To be honest I thought Cardiff and Charlton would definitely win so I did back Ebbsfleet...close in the end :ok How many times have you had a week with not one winner? There are plenty of weeks without a winner, betting at average odds like these. I have had a few occasions in the past of 10+ games in a row without a win, but it's always showed a good long term profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Punt_4THEE_Profit_ Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins There are plenty of weeks without a winner' date=' betting at average odds like these. I have had a few occasions in the past of 10+ games in a row without a win, but it's always showed a good long term profit.[/quote'] Yeah I know it has mate didn't mean that as a go or anything just a question! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted September 12, 2011 Author Share Posted September 12, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 1 for tomorrow... 13/09/2011 | Brentford v Colchester | £8.00 at 4 (General) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hugo88 Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Thanks bairn1, played the +0.5 AH on Colchester. Tied it up late. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted September 14, 2011 Author Share Posted September 14, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins DateMatchOddsP/LBank (£500 start) 13/09/2011 Brentford 1 - 1 Colchester4-£8.00£480.88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 4 picks for the weekend... 17/09/2011 | Hartlepool v Bury | £8.00 at 4 (Ladbrokes) 17/09/2011 | Toulouse v Bordeaux | £9.50 at 3.29 (Pinnacle) 17/09/2011 | Hertha v Augsburg | £5.00 at 6.62 (Pinnacle) 18/09/2011 | Lyon v Marseille | £9.00 at 3.64 (Pinnacle) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ihitjackpot Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hi Bairn, Great run, just a quick question, do mind emailing me at [email protected]? I would like to offer you some temp work if you're interested, specifically as a statistician. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins I think changing the staking plan has been a curse! Hopefully the system will get back up and running soon though... DateMatchOddsP/LBank (£500 start) 13/09/2011 Brentford 1 - 1 Colchester4-£8.00£480.88 17/09/2011 Hartlepool 3 - 0 Bury4-£8.00£472.88 17/09/2011 Toulouse 3 - 2 Bordeaux3.29-£9.50£463.38 17/09/2011 Hertha 2 - 2 Augsburg6.62-£5.00£458.38 18/09/2011 Lyon 2 - 0 Marseille3.64-£9.00£449.38 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terak69 Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins I think changing the staking plan has been a curse! Hopefully the system will get back up and running soon though... DateMatchOddsP/LBank (£500 start) 13/09/2011 Brentford 1 - 1 Colchester4-£8.00£480.88 17/09/2011 Hartlepool 3 - 0 Bury4-£8.00£472.88 17/09/2011 Toulouse 3 - 2 Bordeaux3.29-£9.50£463.38 17/09/2011 Hertha 2 - 2 Augsburg6.62-£5.00£458.38 18/09/2011 Lyon 2 - 0 Marseille3.64-£9.00£449.38 Have you compared it with last years strategy ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins The bank would be a lot lower going on last year's strategy - £417.50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 2 for midweek... 20/09/2011 | Cambridge v Ebbsfleet | £6.50 at 4.5 (Stan James) 21/09/2011 | Malaga v Ath Bilbao | £5.00 at 5.99 (Pinnacle) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belux Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 2 for midweek... 20/09/2011 | Cambridge v Ebbsfleet | £6.50 at 4.5 (Stan James) 21/09/2011 | Malaga v Ath Bilbao | £5.00 at 5.99 (Pinnacle) Why would Bilbao win at Malaga? Malaga has a good team and the results in their last games where good too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fearthainn Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Why would Bilbao win at Malaga? Malaga has a good team and the results in their last games where good too. Why would Levante win against Real Madrid? Haven't you seen Bairn's picks in the past? They seem spot on to me most of the time... If you don't agree with a particular selection you don't have to follow it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belux Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Levante against Real Madrid is not the same huh, was a home game for Levante, which is always more difficult. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aderuk Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Levante against Real Madrid is not the same huh, was a home game for Levante, which is always more difficult. Away game for Real should not really have been more difficult as the odds on Levante show, 13/1 with some bookies.:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Why would Bilbao win at Malaga? Malaga has a good team and the results in their last games where good too. Hi there, The system isn't particularly saying that Bilbao should win at Malaga. All it is saying is that they should have a better chance than the bookies have given them. So odds of 5.99 suggest that they have around a 17% chance of winning while this system suggests they have a better chance than this. Malaga will more than likely win, but in the long run, betting this way will show profit. Hope this makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belux Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Ok Bairn, that's very clear, thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Away game for Real should not really have been more difficult as the odds on Levante show' date=' 13/1 with some bookies.:D[/quote'] Got them at 16.5 on betfair :cigar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Still not happening for us. Another few losing bets and the system is on it's worst ever run, so hopefully things will turn around this weekend... DateMatchOddsP/LBank (£500 start) 20/09/2011 Cambridge 2 - 0 Ebbsfleet4.5-£6.50£442.88 21/09/2011 Malaga 1 - 0 Ath Bilbao5.99-£5.00£437.88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Coming thick and fast at the moment, which maybe isn't a great thing, given the run we're on!... 24/09/2011 | West Ham v Peterboro | £5.00 at 6 (General) 24/09/2011 | Sheffield Weds v Exeter | £5.00 at 6 (Bet3000) 24/09/2011 | Morecambe v Bristol Rvs | £8.00 at 3.6 (Ladbrokes) 24/09/2011 | Mgladbach v Nurnberg | £8.00 at 3.75 (Bet365) 24/09/2011 | Motherwell v Aberdeen | £7.50 at 4 (Ladbrokes) 25/09/2011 | Rennes v St Etienne | £6.00 at 4.75 (Bet365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ihitjackpot Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins The reason you're losing money is because you are reducing your winnings by betting less when the edge (value) stay the same. That and it's currently looking like a bad streak. May I suggest you instead wager level? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Hook Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins I might be a bit naive here, but could the bad start be to do with the fact the season is young - teams may not have settled down yet? Your system started when the season was relatively old last year. I'm guessing the system is based on stats in the last game & not an average of a certain number of games. As an Exeter fan I'm dodging a wager on that - City haven't scored an away goal this season & the attack has looked powder puff. City are getting Bauzza back from injury but I dobt that'll make any real difference. I'm keeping the faith generally though & will back the others modestly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins ive backed them all at level stakes,good luck with these Bairns:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyVadah Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins I agree with Dr Hook. I think the system might have a better prediction rate when trends have started to build. A season needs around 6-10 games to mature. The league tables now don't look anything like they will in 5 games' time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Surely Bairn1 has all the evidence from backtesting to show that early season is just as profitable as later in the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winningbin Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hi Bairn, did you check the system at the period of beginning of each last seasons ? How was it ? Maybe we are going in lost streak ! We need some continuous wins to get back the lost :) Hope it happens soon !:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins I would strongly suggest all of ye to stop asking Bairn question after question after question, why dont you do this, why did you do that, id reccomend this or that, you need to change that, its too early in the season for results and trends , blah de blaaaa.. Will ye let the bloody man get on with what he is trying to do and stop wrecking his head or he wont be long leaving!!! If you follow, its not his problem if your losing a few quid, its your choice to follow or not and last season he had a great year so just because he is on a bad spell stop doing his nut in and let him get on with it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris 10b Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins I would strongly suggest all of ye to stop asking Bairn question after question after question, why dont you do this, why did you do that, id reccomend this or that, you need to change that, its too early in the season for results and trends , blah de blaaaa.. Will ye let the bloody man get on with what he is trying to do and stop wrecking his head or he wont be long leaving!!! If you follow, its not his problem if your losing a few quid, its your choice to follow or not and last season he had a great year so just because he is on a bad spell stop doing his nut in and let him get on with it! Quite right Aidymac, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodabrab Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Bairn, Keep the faith, for professional punters the start to season has been bad (in fact disastrous) so I guess your system is just following the same trend. Lets hope it doesn't turn in to a season like 09-10 which is generally regarded as one of the worst in last 10 or so seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Bairn, Keep the faith, for professional punters the start to season has been bad (in fact disastrous) so I guess your system is just following the same trend. Lets hope it doesn't turn in to a season like 09-10 which is generally regarded as one of the worst in last 10 or so seasons. I second this..........form based professional tipsters who use their own ratings are having a woeful start. I know of three who have lost a lot already........not to mention my free SoccerSystemBuilder system, it's not looking too clever right now!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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