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v-zero

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About v-zero

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 09/22/1989
  1. Re: February NBA Picks There is value out there tonight, but nothing that is very likely to come off. However, as far as value goes, these are the best: Atlanta Hawks over Miami Heat at 10.0 on Betfair. New Jersey Nets over LA Clippers at 3.8 on Betfair.
  2. Re: February NBA Picks Technically not February any more, however the money line (and spread) in the Dallas vs NYK match tonight is a joke: Take Dallas Mavericks over New York Knicks on the money line at 1.79 on Betfair.
  3. Re: February NBA Picks Couple of strangely priced games tonight on the money line. Hawks @ 2.56 over Magic Nuggets @ 2.48 over Spurs Both at Betfair.
  4. Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins I'm not going to ask for an insight into your methods, because I wouldn't give you one into mine, I'd just like to say: :clap
  5. Re: Sophocles' PR System I believe, Mathematically, that Eskisehirspor was a good pick.
  6. Re: Software / System Builder I personally use Python for every part of my betting automation. I have it using the Betfair API 24/7 to find and place bets. The automation is top to bottom and requires no interaction on my part - it tweets me when a bet is placed with the details. Basically my point is you can do it all with Python, and it's an easy language to pick up...
  7. Re: Kelly criterion vs Flat staking Tackling the problem of uncertain value can be done, and should be done, by reducing to half-kelly or less still. In fact it is suicidal to bet full-Kelly.
  8. Re: A.I. Football There is also a free online NN available at zunzun.com, though it is limited on the number of inputs.
  9. Re: SAFE MULTIBET system Try not to get so irate about your detractors, it won't help you concentrate on what you are trying to achieve. Personally I cannot draw any kind of conclusion on your system yet, all I know is that mathematically there is no money to be made from selections at prices of less than 1.5, but perhaps that is because the mathematics cannot hope to quantify those last few factors that make the difference between a selection being a 1.3 and a 1.25.... So good luck, I hope you succeed. :cheers
  10. Re: When can a system be considered to have "proven" itself ? It will not produce a result that is significantly different to an Archie value if the number of bets is large and the average strike rate is close to 0.5, but otherwise it will produce a result that is more specific. Moreover the simulation will not give an approximation, but will in fact render exactly the answer to your question.
  11. Re: When can a system be considered to have "proven" itself ? A Chi-sqaured test (pronounced kai, by the way) is somewhat suited to the task, but not perfectly so. A more useful test is to put a bound on how likely it would be to observe your results from your set of bets under the assumption that the odds received are fair. For instance, in my close games thread there is around a 5% chance that my bets would have achieved that yield or better over that many bets by mere chance. The easiest way to do this with accuracy is to do something called a monte carlo simulation. The ROI and numbe
  12. Re: SAFE MULTIBET system It is quite easy to calculate the likelihood of reaching a positive roi given a set of odds, and assuming they are fair.
  13. Re: Best Statistical Analysis software to use I have been considering posting a piece of here about how to, at least in terms of the mathematics, create a ratings system that intrinsically uses either a logistic or poisson approach. I'm not willing to give away my more complex methods, but I'm happy to help people get on their way with modelling. A precursor to this, though, is an ability to program. I think Python is the perfect language for this type of use, as it is quick and easy to hack bits onto. All of my models, and my bots, use Python exclusively.
  14. Re: Best Statistical Analysis software to use Don't get me wrong, data mining software like SSB can be very useful, but the question is about statistical analysis, which isn't something SSB offers.
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