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About Dumyat

  • Birthday 01/01/1960

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  1. An email arrived July 19 "As of today, Thursday 19th July 2018, Tabcorp UK Ltd will cease providing gambling services on behalf of The Sun and Sun Bets will be closing. Your funds are – and will remain – safe. Please log in to your account here and withdraw any funds as soon as possible." i requested the withdrawal and the cash came back immediately. All very efficient so why is the OZ firm departing from their tie-up with the Sun newspaper. Good article here explains all ; http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2018/07/tabcorp-pull-pin-on-lemon-called-sunbets.html "In this week's least surprising news in the wagering industry, Tabcorp have decided to stop the haemorrhaging and get out of the lemon that is SunBets. For a firm to willingly pay around £40m to get out a deal, it must have an absolute shocker. Let's examine a few of the reasons why: 1 - joint ventures between media companies and betting firms NEVER work. Both sides think it's a licence to print money, and the deals are usually handled by people with limited knowledge of how the other business operates. In my time at Betfair, the powers at be signed two of these deals, with MSN and Yahoo. Does anyone remember those wonderful partnerships? Those from the betting firm think every reader of the site will sign up and spend lots of money, while those from the media operation are just as gullible, thinking their readers just want to piss money away with any new brand they point them at. Unrealistic expectations puts stars in the eyes on both sides and the contract becomes a disaster. 2 - The Sun is a toxic brand It might work well with the white van man brigade (who probably prefer to do business in cash) but to many others, including anyone who supports one of England's most prestigious football clubs, they won't touch it with a barge pole. Losing a big chunk of your available market before you start isn't ideal........"
  2. VAR changes games. That was unfair on Croats while 1-1 since that was never a deliberate handball. The ref had no intention of giving it until harangued by the French. If you have enough whining the ref goes and watches the telly. It has become like US football with protracted delays - it should be a quick decision game. Goal line tech is fine to see if ball crossed line but the VAR experiment in its current form is not ideal. (Wallet not talking - no bets on final).
  3. Has VAR killed the 0-0 draw? There were 6 goalless games in the cagey KO stages of the last World Cup (including the Final). Now contentious moments in the box lead to a penalty awarded by the video ref. Still quite like the draw in the France and England games but I suppose the correct score will have to be 1-1 rather than 0-0.
  4. 1 Thursday June 14 4pm Russia v Saudi Arabia (A) 1-0 2 Friday June 15 1pm Egypt v Uruguay (A) 0-1 3 Friday June 15 4pm Morocco v Iran (B) 0-1 4 Friday June 15 7pm Portugal v Spain (B) 0-1 5 Saturday June 16 11am France v Australia (C) 1-0 6 Saturday June 16 2pm Argentina v Iceland (D) 1-0 7 Saturday June 16 5pm Peru v Denmark (C) 1-0 8 Saturday June 16 8pm Croatia v Nigeria (D) 1-0 9 Sunday June 17 1pm Costa Rica v Serbia (E) 0-1 10 Sunday June 17 4pm Germany v Mexico (F) 1-0 11 Sunday June 17 7pm Brazil v Switzerland (E) 1-0 12 Monday June 18 1pm Sweden v South Korea (F) 1-0 13 Monday June 18 4pm Belgium v Panama (G) 1-0 14 Monday June 18 7pm Tunisia v England (G) 0-1 15 Tuesday June 19 1pm Poland v Senegal (H) 1-0 16 Tuesday June 19 4pm Colombia v Japan (H) 1-0 17 Tuesday June 19 7pm Russia v Egypt (A) 1-0 18 Wednesday June 20 1pm Portugal v Morocco (B) 1-0 19 Wednesday June 20 4pm Uruguay v Saudi Arabia (A) 1-0 20 Wednesday June 20 7pm Iran v Spain (B) 0-1 21 Thursday June 21 1pm France v Peru (C) 1-0 22 Thursday June 21 4pm Denmark v Australia (C) 1-0 23 Thursday June 21 7pm Argentina v Croatia (D) 1-0 24 Friday June 22 1pm Brazil v Costa Rica (E) 2-0 25 Friday June 22 4pm Nigeria v Iceland (D) 0-1 26 Friday June 22 7pm Serbia v Switzerland (E) 0-1 27 Saturday June 23 1pm Belgium v Tunisia (G) 1-0 28 Saturday June 23 4pm Germany v Sweden (F) 1-0 29 Saturday June 23 7pm South Korea v Mexico (F) 0-1 30 Sunday June 24 1pm England v Panama (G) 1-0 31 Sunday June 24 4pm Japan v Senegal (H) 0-1 32 Sunday June 24 7pm Poland v Colombia (H) 0-1 33 Monday June 25 3pm Uruguay v Russia (A) 1-0 34 Monday June 25 3pm Saudi Arabia v Egypt (A) 0-1 35 Monday June 25 7pm Spain v Morocco (B) 1-0 36 Monday June 25 7pm Iran v Portugal (B) 0-1 37 Tuesday June 26 3pm Denmark v France (C) 0-1 38 Tuesday June 26 3pm Australia v Peru (C) 0-1 39 Tuesday June 26 7pm Nigeria v Argentina (D) 0-1 40 Tuesday June 26 7pm Iceland v Croatia (D) 0-1 41 Wednesday June 27 3pm South Korea v Germany (F) 0-2 42 Wednesday June 27 3pm Mexico v Sweden (F) 1-0 43 Wednesday June 27 7pm Serbia v Brazil (E) 0-2 44 Wednesday June 27 7pm Switzerland v Costa Rica (E) 1-0 45 Thursday June 28 3pm Japan v Poland (H) 0-1 46 Thursday June 28 3pm Senegal v Colombia (H) 0-1 47 Thursday June 28 7pm England v Belgium (G) 1-0 48 Thursday June 28 7pm Panama v Tunisia (G) 1-0 1 Brazil 2 Germany 3 Spain 4 France
  5. Somehow ten years have passed. This old thread mentioned that since gambling was a regulated activity the people who grant the licences could set conditions one of which might be that all punters should be able to bet to some minimum size. Some comments then suggested it wouldn't happen. I never understood why not, the regulator can set how the bookie operates eg the max stake on the FOBTs. So why not this min stake rule. The Guardian mentioned today (March 25, 2018) possible developments related to the 2008 comments with the recent publication of the Gambling Commission Review. "Here too, though, the mood music seems quite positive. Representatives of punters’ groups met with senior Gambling Commission officials on Thursday to discuss the possibility of a minimum bet limit becoming a requirement of a bookmaker’s operating licence, and apparently left believing that it will, at some point, become a reality." https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/mar/25/gambling-commission-recommendations-siginificant-impact-online-punters-horse-racing https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/jan/21/minimum-bet-rule-could-be-winner-for-punters-horse-racing "The idea of a “minimum bet rule”, which would require a bookmaker to lay an advertised price to lose a specified sum, is not new. New South Wales, one of Australia’s main racing jurisdictions, introduced a minimum bet policy in 2014 and other Australian states, including Victoria, the home of the Melbourne Cup, have followed suit. It has proved to be straightforward, effective and, most interesting of all, popular not only with punters but also some of the layers, who have found it easier to trade in a marketplace where turnover is strong and a price must be honoured and available to all." https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/jan/23/bookmakers-urged-to-rethink-closing-punters-accounts https://www.racingpost.com/news/are-bookmakers-unfairly-closing-customer-accounts-views-from-tuesday-s-debate/316874
  6. Would it be possible to make available an excel download of all the selections since the start of the thread containing all the above columns but also with the final score or bet result. All the selections are there but that's a lot of work trailing through all these matches to find historic result data. Or simply add the results to the thread display once each set completed.
  7. 4/23/2017 17:00 MXC Pumas UNAM vs Veracruz home or draw 1.78 1.61 0.11 Marathonbet 4/17/2017 8:43 1 I think this one is just a straight Home since Home +0.5 is currently 1.18 Home is currently 1.65 Marathon.
  8. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/mar/30/expected-goals-big-football-data-leicester-city-norwich http://statsbomb.com/category/football/
  9. Must be tough trying to keep track of all these different leagues. It's an excellent thread and gives some useful ideas for bets.
  10. 3/31/2017 19:45 SP1 Espanyol vs Real Betis home or draw 2.22 1.98 0.12 Matchbook 3/29/2017 12:03 1 I think that's just a home selection. *** 4/2/2017 11:30 RUS Amkar Perm vs Terek Grozny home or draw 1.88 1.52 0.24 Marathonbet 3/29/2017 12:03 1 Currently about 1.37. Wonder if that's one of these palpable errors. Edit: Or more likely it is Grozny (Away?) + Draw
  11. Hi Allen29,

    Congrats on the IPREDICT thread - very interesting.

    I wonder if you could improve profit performance by excluding longer odds selections. For example what are your returns if you exclude any matches where your estimated chance of the true odds is above a certain level.

    I was calculating profits on all matches over the last few months where your prediction was 2.10 or less true chance. That was returning a 15% edge whereas your overall profit figure was negative in same period.

    Of course this is a bit of "data mining" but I wonder if the more likely selections are also more likely to produce profit.


    Yours in sport,


  12. Hi. Try. http://www.football-bet-data.com

    when you download to excel the match goal times are there. 

    1. muppet77


      Sorry just saw your post! 

    2. Dumyat


      Hi Muppet,

      Thanks. http://www.football-bet-data.com  I have downloaded an example and that should provide the data needed.

      The time data will require a little manipulation to give every goal its own time column but it's going to be a big saver compared to typing in from scratch.

      Yours, Dumyat


  13. Hi,

    You might recall we briefly corresponded some time ago when you had your very successful series of corner spread sells.

    I recall a little while ago you were trying to set up a more extensive football database than the ones available at football-data.

    I am interested in particular in goal times - primarily just for English matches would be sufficient to see if can develop any bet ideas. 

    I used to type these in manually from Rothman's yearbooks but life is too short to persist with that idea. I was wondering if you could point me to any website which has goal times as part of their data and is available to download without typing.

    yours in sport,



  14. I received a call from BF after I tried a tenner on your pick. They gave me the option of voiding the bet or keeping but would be settled at 5/4 - I voided - didn't they try and contact you?
  15. They have voided the 9/2 and will settle at 5/4.
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