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Dumyat

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Everything posted by Dumyat

  1. An email arrived July 19 "As of today, Thursday 19th July 2018, Tabcorp UK Ltd will cease providing gambling services on behalf of The Sun and Sun Bets will be closing. Your funds are – and will remain – safe. Please log in to your account here and withdraw any funds as soon as possible." i requested the withdrawal and the cash came back immediately. All very efficient so why is the OZ firm departing from their tie-up with the Sun newspaper. Good article here explains all ; http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2018/07/tabcorp-pull-pin-on-lemon-called-sunbets.html "In this week's least surprising news in the wagering industry, Tabcorp have decided to stop the haemorrhaging and get out of the lemon that is SunBets. For a firm to willingly pay around £40m to get out a deal, it must have an absolute shocker. Let's examine a few of the reasons why: 1 - joint ventures between media companies and betting firms NEVER work. Both sides think it's a licence to print money, and the deals are usually handled by people with limited knowledge of how the other business operates. In my time at Betfair, the powers at be signed two of these deals, with MSN and Yahoo. Does anyone remember those wonderful partnerships? Those from the betting firm think every reader of the site will sign up and spend lots of money, while those from the media operation are just as gullible, thinking their readers just want to piss money away with any new brand they point them at. Unrealistic expectations puts stars in the eyes on both sides and the contract becomes a disaster. 2 - The Sun is a toxic brand It might work well with the white van man brigade (who probably prefer to do business in cash) but to many others, including anyone who supports one of England's most prestigious football clubs, they won't touch it with a barge pole. Losing a big chunk of your available market before you start isn't ideal........"
  2. VAR changes games. That was unfair on Croats while 1-1 since that was never a deliberate handball. The ref had no intention of giving it until harangued by the French. If you have enough whining the ref goes and watches the telly. It has become like US football with protracted delays - it should be a quick decision game. Goal line tech is fine to see if ball crossed line but the VAR experiment in its current form is not ideal. (Wallet not talking - no bets on final).
  3. Has VAR killed the 0-0 draw? There were 6 goalless games in the cagey KO stages of the last World Cup (including the Final). Now contentious moments in the box lead to a penalty awarded by the video ref. Still quite like the draw in the France and England games but I suppose the correct score will have to be 1-1 rather than 0-0.
  4. 1 Thursday June 14 4pm Russia v Saudi Arabia (A) 1-0 2 Friday June 15 1pm Egypt v Uruguay (A) 0-1 3 Friday June 15 4pm Morocco v Iran (B) 0-1 4 Friday June 15 7pm Portugal v Spain (B) 0-1 5 Saturday June 16 11am France v Australia (C) 1-0 6 Saturday June 16 2pm Argentina v Iceland (D) 1-0 7 Saturday June 16 5pm Peru v Denmark (C) 1-0 8 Saturday June 16 8pm Croatia v Nigeria (D) 1-0 9 Sunday June 17 1pm Costa Rica v Serbia (E) 0-1 10 Sunday June 17 4pm Germany v Mexico (F) 1-0 11 Sunday June 17 7pm Brazil v Switzerland (E) 1-0 12 Monday June 18 1pm Sweden v South Korea (F) 1-0 13 Monday June 18 4pm Belgium v Panama (G) 1-0 14 Monday June 18 7pm Tunisia v England (G) 0-1 15 Tuesday June 19 1pm Poland v Senegal (H) 1-0 16 Tuesday June 19 4pm Colombia v Japan (H) 1-0 17 Tuesday June 19 7pm Russia v Egypt (A) 1-0 18 Wednesday June 20 1pm Portugal v Morocco (B) 1-0 19 Wednesday June 20 4pm Uruguay v Saudi Arabia (A) 1-0 20 Wednesday June 20 7pm Iran v Spain (B) 0-1 21 Thursday June 21 1pm France v Peru (C) 1-0 22 Thursday June 21 4pm Denmark v Australia (C) 1-0 23 Thursday June 21 7pm Argentina v Croatia (D) 1-0 24 Friday June 22 1pm Brazil v Costa Rica (E) 2-0 25 Friday June 22 4pm Nigeria v Iceland (D) 0-1 26 Friday June 22 7pm Serbia v Switzerland (E) 0-1 27 Saturday June 23 1pm Belgium v Tunisia (G) 1-0 28 Saturday June 23 4pm Germany v Sweden (F) 1-0 29 Saturday June 23 7pm South Korea v Mexico (F) 0-1 30 Sunday June 24 1pm England v Panama (G) 1-0 31 Sunday June 24 4pm Japan v Senegal (H) 0-1 32 Sunday June 24 7pm Poland v Colombia (H) 0-1 33 Monday June 25 3pm Uruguay v Russia (A) 1-0 34 Monday June 25 3pm Saudi Arabia v Egypt (A) 0-1 35 Monday June 25 7pm Spain v Morocco (B) 1-0 36 Monday June 25 7pm Iran v Portugal (B) 0-1 37 Tuesday June 26 3pm Denmark v France (C) 0-1 38 Tuesday June 26 3pm Australia v Peru (C) 0-1 39 Tuesday June 26 7pm Nigeria v Argentina (D) 0-1 40 Tuesday June 26 7pm Iceland v Croatia (D) 0-1 41 Wednesday June 27 3pm South Korea v Germany (F) 0-2 42 Wednesday June 27 3pm Mexico v Sweden (F) 1-0 43 Wednesday June 27 7pm Serbia v Brazil (E) 0-2 44 Wednesday June 27 7pm Switzerland v Costa Rica (E) 1-0 45 Thursday June 28 3pm Japan v Poland (H) 0-1 46 Thursday June 28 3pm Senegal v Colombia (H) 0-1 47 Thursday June 28 7pm England v Belgium (G) 1-0 48 Thursday June 28 7pm Panama v Tunisia (G) 1-0 1 Brazil 2 Germany 3 Spain 4 France
  5. Somehow ten years have passed. This old thread mentioned that since gambling was a regulated activity the people who grant the licences could set conditions one of which might be that all punters should be able to bet to some minimum size. Some comments then suggested it wouldn't happen. I never understood why not, the regulator can set how the bookie operates eg the max stake on the FOBTs. So why not this min stake rule. The Guardian mentioned today (March 25, 2018) possible developments related to the 2008 comments with the recent publication of the Gambling Commission Review. "Here too, though, the mood music seems quite positive. Representatives of punters’ groups met with senior Gambling Commission officials on Thursday to discuss the possibility of a minimum bet limit becoming a requirement of a bookmaker’s operating licence, and apparently left believing that it will, at some point, become a reality." https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/mar/25/gambling-commission-recommendations-siginificant-impact-online-punters-horse-racing https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/jan/21/minimum-bet-rule-could-be-winner-for-punters-horse-racing "The idea of a “minimum bet rule”, which would require a bookmaker to lay an advertised price to lose a specified sum, is not new. New South Wales, one of Australia’s main racing jurisdictions, introduced a minimum bet policy in 2014 and other Australian states, including Victoria, the home of the Melbourne Cup, have followed suit. It has proved to be straightforward, effective and, most interesting of all, popular not only with punters but also some of the layers, who have found it easier to trade in a marketplace where turnover is strong and a price must be honoured and available to all." https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/jan/23/bookmakers-urged-to-rethink-closing-punters-accounts https://www.racingpost.com/news/are-bookmakers-unfairly-closing-customer-accounts-views-from-tuesday-s-debate/316874
  6. Would it be possible to make available an excel download of all the selections since the start of the thread containing all the above columns but also with the final score or bet result. All the selections are there but that's a lot of work trailing through all these matches to find historic result data. Or simply add the results to the thread display once each set completed.
  7. 4/23/2017 17:00 MXC Pumas UNAM vs Veracruz home or draw 1.78 1.61 0.11 Marathonbet 4/17/2017 8:43 1 I think this one is just a straight Home since Home +0.5 is currently 1.18 Home is currently 1.65 Marathon.
  8. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/mar/30/expected-goals-big-football-data-leicester-city-norwich http://statsbomb.com/category/football/
  9. Must be tough trying to keep track of all these different leagues. It's an excellent thread and gives some useful ideas for bets.
  10. 3/31/2017 19:45 SP1 Espanyol vs Real Betis home or draw 2.22 1.98 0.12 Matchbook 3/29/2017 12:03 1 I think that's just a home selection. *** 4/2/2017 11:30 RUS Amkar Perm vs Terek Grozny home or draw 1.88 1.52 0.24 Marathonbet 3/29/2017 12:03 1 Currently about 1.37. Wonder if that's one of these palpable errors. Edit: Or more likely it is Grozny (Away?) + Draw
  11. Hi Allen29,

    Congrats on the IPREDICT thread - very interesting.

    I wonder if you could improve profit performance by excluding longer odds selections. For example what are your returns if you exclude any matches where your estimated chance of the true odds is above a certain level.

    I was calculating profits on all matches over the last few months where your prediction was 2.10 or less true chance. That was returning a 15% edge whereas your overall profit figure was negative in same period.

    Of course this is a bit of "data mining" but I wonder if the more likely selections are also more likely to produce profit.

     

    Yours in sport,

    Dumyat

  12. Hi,

    You might recall we briefly corresponded some time ago when you had your very successful series of corner spread sells.

    I recall a little while ago you were trying to set up a more extensive football database than the ones available at football-data.

    I am interested in particular in goal times - primarily just for English matches would be sufficient to see if can develop any bet ideas. 

    I used to type these in manually from Rothman's yearbooks but life is too short to persist with that idea. I was wondering if you could point me to any website which has goal times as part of their data and is available to download without typing.

    yours in sport,

    Dumyat

     

  13. I received a call from BF after I tried a tenner on your pick. They gave me the option of voiding the bet or keeping but would be settled at 5/4 - I voided - didn't they try and contact you?
  14. They have voided the 9/2 and will settle at 5/4.
  15. [TABLE=border: 0, cellpadding: 0, cellspacing: 0, width: 393] [TR] [TD]19910327[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]San Marino[/TD] [TD]Romania[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]19930922[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]San Marino[/TD] [TD]Netherlands[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]19931117[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]San Marino[/TD] [TD]England[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]19950607[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]San Marino[/TD] [TD]Russia[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]19961009[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]San Marino[/TD] [TD]Belgium[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]19970430[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]San Marino[/TD] [TD]Netherlands[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]19990331[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]San Marino[/TD] [TD]Spain[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20010606[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]San Marino[/TD] [TD]Belgium[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20010905[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]San Marino[/TD] [TD]Croatia[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20030607[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]San Marino[/TD] [TD]Sweden[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20051012[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]San Marino[/TD] [TD]Spain[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20060906[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]San Marino[/TD] [TD]Germany[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20070908[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]San Marino[/TD] [TD]Czech Rep[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20081119[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]San Marino[/TD] [TD]Czech Rep[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20100903[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]San Marino[/TD] [TD]Netherlands[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20110906[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]San Marino[/TD] [TD]Sweden[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20130322[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]San Marino[/TD] [TD]England[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20131015[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]San Marino[/TD] [TD]Ukraine[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] That's the minnows at home to the elite and they don't often keep it to under 5. Always wondered why SM not better since right next to Italy. Why don't some lesser Italians find their San Marino granny and suddenly they get to play internationals.
  16. I'm not normally a racing fan but these tips might encourage me to start - thanks. Is the bank correct? It seems to jump an extra 100 between posts 698 and 700.
  17. Re: UK General Election 2015 Further to my post yesterday in which I wondered if you could use the SPIN estimate of SNP seats now at 47 and use that to estimate the chance on the fixed odds. eg average chance is 47/59 = .7966. You then stick that in a binomial. That wont actually work since you would want the chance on each of the 59 "trials" to be the same. Whereas here the chances vary between 1.01 certs like Dundee East up to very unlikely in Orkney at 5. So I tried another way to estimate the total by taking best SNP price in each seat. Turn that into a percentage and then add them. That comes to 45.9 seats predicted. So again it's pointing that there might be some value in going under 51.5. B365 have cut their 1/1 on that to 4/5 but can still get 10/11 at Paddy Power. These are the ten seats (defending party listed) with the poorest SNP chance with best and worst price to win seat. [TABLE=width: 567] [TR] [TD]East Lothian[/TD] [TD]Scotland[/TD] [TD]Labour[/TD] [TD]1.57[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.6369[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.6667[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill[/TD] [TD]Scotland[/TD] [TD]Labour[/TD] [TD]1.66[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.6024[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.6667[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dunfermline and West Fife[/TD] [TD]Scotland[/TD] [TD]Labour[/TD] [TD]1.83[/TD] [TD]1.61[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.5464[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.6211[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]East Renfrewshire[/TD] [TD]Scotland[/TD] [TD]Labour[/TD] [TD]1.9[/TD] [TD]1.66[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.5263[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.6024[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Edinburgh South[/TD] [TD]Scotland[/TD] [TD]Labour[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1.75[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.5000[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.5714[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dumfries and Galloway[/TD] [TD]Scotland[/TD] [TD]Labour[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1.66[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.5000[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.6024[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rutherglen and Hamilton West[/TD] [TD]Scotland[/TD] [TD]Labour[/TD] [TD]2.2[/TD] [TD]1.83[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.4545[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.5464[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk[/TD] [TD]Scotland[/TD] [TD]Liberal Democrats[/TD] [TD]2.38[/TD] [TD]2.25[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.4202[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.4444[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Glasgow North East[/TD] [TD]Scotland[/TD] [TD]Labour[/TD] [TD]2.62[/TD] [TD]2.25[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.3817[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.4444[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Orkney and Shetland[/TD] [TD]Scotland[/TD] [TD]Liberal Democrats[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.2000[/TD] [TD=align: right]0.2500[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  18. Re: UK General Election 2015 A great bet to have taken over 43.5 SNP seats at 1/1. I wonder if it is now time to go in the other direction and bet under 51.5 at 1/1 with B365. The polls and the media are dominated by the SNP at the moment but I wonder if a similar effect to the referendum will be felt with a much more silent majority taking a different view. There is also something a bit more substantial to that simple gut feeling since I notice that SPIN have SNP seats at 46.5-48.5. I don't know if it would be appropriate to use a simple binomial distribution with 47.5 as the middle. That would imply 51 or less is a 91% chance so I'm guessing you cant just use an average 80.5% and see how many you win in 59 seats.
  19. Re: Euro 2016 Qualifying > Sunday September 7th Scotland are actually stronger now that they were in 2003 according to http://www.eloratings.net/Scotland.htm Prior to the 2003 match Scotland were rated 1624. (Germany were 1857). Scotland are now 1684 and up 17 places in world ranking in a year. So Scotland have actually improved ... the problem is Germany have improved so much more.
  20. Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 38 bets, +27% yield In the FA CUP FINAL FA Cup Final Muppet gave the following bet on May 17 "under 25 booking points 7/4 reds ten points yellows five" Unfortunately I carelessly then took under 26 at 6/4 thinking it was the same points allocation - it wasn't. Would it be possible to add KP's named firm to any bet.
  21. Re: Group D - England v Italy > Sunday June 15th Here's an interesting England stat. In their opening game in the last 10 WC or EC finals England have drawn 6 times. I'll have something on PINN's 3.07 X.
  22. Re: Ligue 1 Orange > April 4th - 6th Nobody can know everything or have unlimited time to work on all betting areas and it is quite possible to have success, "betting on someone else's tips". The research and analysis involves making an assessment of which tipster is worth following. A few years ago I was impressed with the tips suggested on here by Muppet77 of selling corners. This is an area I would never have even thought of touching myself but after analysing Muppet's track record I started to bet on his tips. Corner sells in Spain was my most successful betting area of that particular year. Similarly I have been impressed with the quality of Meatman's analysis in the French threads this season and it has provided an insight I certainly wouldn't have had time or the ability to create myself.
  23. Re: Ligue 2 > March 18th - 24th Is this period of the season more likely to produce unusual results? In the last 8 seasons of France 2 the pre-match betting favourite won 47% of matches. How does the betting favourite get on in the months of March, April, May? - it's 48% ie no difference at all.
  24. Re: Kevin Pullein's Saturday picks, 28 bets, +17% yield Think the tip was listed at 8/13.
  25. Re: Ligue 2 > December 13th - 16th Thanks to MM we have high quality write-ups on a league with which I and many of us would certainly be unfamiliar. The results on any one given night are irrelevant, the value is already evident over the season to date. It is naive in the extreme to complain - clearly it's some novice who thinks that somehow every prediction must perform exactly as indicated. Most punters have long realised that betting is much more difficult and things do not always work out as anticipated.