Bairn's Value Away Wins

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Stoke-Norwich' date=' no? :unsure[/quote'] Norwich do look good value at 4.5. They are doing better than Stoke in my ratings, but they are also doing better in terms of points, and the system hasn't picked it out.

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 1 pick for midweek... 06/02/3012 | Barrow v Bath City | £5.50 at 7.03 (Pinnacle)

[danzku]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Thanks bairn, you made my miserable day a little better :ok

[iparout]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hi there bairn. Congrats on the latest win @ odds of 7.03 !! Can you post the yield for the system this year and yield for previous years ?

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Date	Match	Odds	P/L	Bank (£500 start)
06/02/3012	Barrow 0 - 1 Bath City	7.03	£33.17	£595.40

Will work on the yield and will post in a bit.

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Hi there bairn. Congrats on the latest win @ odds of 7.03 !! Can you post the yield for the system this year and yield for previous years ?

I make the yields 13.0% for this season (a bit worse than I'd have expected), and 69.3% for last season (a lot better than I'd have expected!). If I've got my sums right, then overall for the two seasons, this gives a yield of 41.0%. I'll try and incorporate these to the results tables.

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Let's hope the good run can continue!... 10/03/3012 | Reading v Leicester | £10.50 at 3.7 (Marathon) 10/03/3012 | Torquay v Bristol Rvs | £9.00 at 4.33 (Ladbrokes) 10/03/3012 | Evian Thonon Gaillard v Sochaux | £8.50 at 4.7 (BetFair) 11/03/3012 | Norwich v Wigan | £8.50 at 4.55 (Marathon)

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Date	Match	Odds	P/L	Bank (£500 start)
10/03/3012	Reading 3 - 1 Leicester	3.7	-£10.50	£584.90
10/03/3012	Torquay 2 - 2 Bristol Rvs	4.33	-£9.00	£575.90
10/03/3012	Evian Thonon Gaillard 2 - 3 Sochaux	4.7	£31.45	£607.35
11/03/3012	Norwich 1 - 1 Wigan	4.55	-£8.50	£598.85

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Nothing for midweek.

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 2 for the weekend... 17/03/3012 | Watford v Coventry | £10.00 at 4 (PaddyPower) 17/03/3012 | Sheffield United v Tranmere | £5.50 at 7.02 (Pinnacle)

[Kiddi]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Not the best weekend but still great week

[thmkrr]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

2 for the weekend... 17/03/3012 | Watford v Coventry | £10.00 at 4 (PaddyPower) 17/03/3012 | Sheffield United v Tranmere | £5.50 at 7.02 (Pinnacle)

Just wondering what kind of profit you may have to a level stake? Have you recorded this? If not I'll happily trawls through all your selections. But very nice system you have working here :)

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Sounds like we were a bit unlucky not to get at least one of these, but two more losers. Have put a few extra stats in the results. Just off now to checked if they are correct!...

Date	Match	Odds	P/L	P/L 2011/12	P/L Overall	ROI Overall
17/03/3012	Watford 0 - 0 Coventry	4	-£10.00	£88.85	£594.55	39.30%
17/03/3012	Sheffield United 1 - 1 Tranmere	7.02	-£5.50	£83.35	£589.05	38.79%

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Just wondering what kind of profit you may have to a level stake? Have you recorded this? If not I'll happily trawls through all your selections. But very nice system you have working here :)

Not checked it in detail, but I think ROI to level stake is 14.81% - so a bit better than the staking plan I've been using.

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Almost forgot!... 20/03/3012 | Crewe v Bradford | £9.50 at 4 (Ladbrokes)

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Date	Match	Odds	P/L	P/L 2011/12	P/L Overall	ROI Overall
19/03/3012	Crewe 1 - 0 Bradford	4	-£9.50	£73.85	£579.55	37.93%

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 5 picks for the weekend, though as these are a bit late, I've missed out on better odds for a lot of these... 24/03/2012 | Sunderland v QPR | £9.50 at 4 (PaddyPower) 24/03/2012 | Reading v Blackpool | £8.50 at 4.5 (Ladbrokes) 24/03/2012 | Yeovil v Hartlepool | £10.50 at 3.6 (Pinnacle) 24/03/2012 | Mgladbach v Hoffenheim | £6.50 at 5.7 (Marathon) 25/03/2012 | Paris SG v Bordeaux | £6.00 at 6.4 (Marathon)

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Some of these aways look very optimistic to me ! Regardless of that its an interesting thread. Bath Away was one hell of a call, their first (poss still only) Away win this season. QPR, B'pool and H'pool look rather unlikely to me, I'd go narrow home, draw, home, in that order.

[SecondSight]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Bairn you've been unlucky recently - I always take note of your UK weekend selections. Last week there would have been a nice profit laying the home teams and the week before rather than going all out for an away. Many thanks for posting.

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Some of these aways look very optimistic to me ! Regardless of that its an interesting thread. Bath Away was one hell of a call' date=' their first (poss still only) Away win this season. QPR, B'pool and H'pool look rather unlikely to me, I'd go narrow home, draw, home, in that order.[/quote'] Hi there, The picks will probably always look optimistic as the system isn't particularly trying to find fixtures that it thinks will result in an away win. Instead it's trying to find value. So it might be saying that QPR have a 35% to 40% chance of winning, but that more than likely, they still won't win. However, finding value like this should lead to long term profit.

[DirtyVadah]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Hi there, The picks will probably always look optimistic as the system isn't particularly trying to find fixtures that it thinks will result in an away win. Instead it's trying to find value. So it might be saying that QPR have a 35% to 40% chance of winning, but that more than likely, they still won't win. However, finding value like this should lead to long term profit.

Great day today. Thanks as usual Bairn.

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Date	Match	Odds	P/L	P/L 2011/12	P/L Overall	ROI Overall
24/03/2012	Sunderland 3 - 1 QPR	4	-£9.50	£64.35	£570.05	37.08%
24/03/2012	Reading 3 - 1 Blackpool	4.5	-£8.50	£55.85	£561.55	36.32%
24/03/2012	Yeovil 0 - 1 Hartlepool	3.6	£27.30	£83.15	£588.85	37.83%
24/03/2012	Mgladbach 1 - 2 Hoffenheim	5.7	£30.55	£113.70	£619.40	39.63%
25/03/2012	Paris SG 1 - 1 Bordeaux	6.4	-£6.00	£107.70	£613.40	39.09%

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 1 for midweek... 27/03/2012 | Stevenage v Bournemouth | £9.50 at 4.33 (Ladbrokes)

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Date	Match	Odds	P/L	P/L 2011/12	P/L Overall	ROI Overall
27/03/2012	Stevenage 2 - 2 Bournemouth	4.33	-£9.50	£98.20	£603.90	38.26%

Just one for the weekend... 31/03/2012 | Crewe v Northampton | £9.50 at 4.2 (Ladbrokes)

[DirtyVadah]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Maybe it's been mentioned before but I've noticed a lot of these games that don't go to an away team end up in a draw. Maybe looking into laying the favourite would be a good idea.

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Date	Match	Odds	P/L	P/L 2011/12	P/L Overall	ROI Overall
31/03/2012	Crewe 1 - 1 Northampton	4.2	-£9.50	£88.70	£594.40	37.43%

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Maybe it's been mentioned before but I've noticed a lot of these games that don't go to an away team end up in a draw. Maybe looking into laying the favourite would be a good idea.

Hi there, It has been discussed a few times, and I'd say that if you're after a more steady system with a better strike rate then it could be worth considering. (As might betting the away team on the Asian Handicap). You would be taking a bit hit on the ROI though. There have been a lot of draws recently, but in the long run there aren't actually that many. This season there have only been 26, which is about 22.8%. This equates to odds of around 4.4, which I guess is a lot more than the average odds we'd have got on these selections. And for the four seasons previous to this, you'd actually have lost more money by betting on draws than you would have by betting on homes. Hope this helps.

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 07/04/2012 | Sheffield United v Bournemouth | £6.50 at 6 (General) 07/04/2012 | Freiburg v Nurnberg | £11.00 at 3.6 (William Hill) 07/04/2012 | St Johnstone v Inverness C | £9.00 at 4.33 (BetFred) 07/04/2012 | Getafe v Sp Gijon | £7.00 at 5.6 (Marathon) 08/04/2012 | Paris SG v Marseille | £8.50 at 4.8 (Pinnacle)

[_Punt_4THEE_Profit_]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hey Bairn just wanted to let you know 9 times out of 10 when I'm on PL I check out your thread and I think your doing a great job!:ok Also I fancied Hoffenheim there on the 24th March and when I seen you were backing it too it made my decision that bit easier and needless to say I was delighted when it came up.:nana Have you thought of modifying your system at all for next season?

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Hey Bairn just wanted to let you know 9 times out of 10 when I'm on PL I check out your thread and I think your doing a great job!:ok Also I fancied Hoffenheim there on the 24th March and when I seen you were backing it too it made my decision that bit easier and needless to say I was delighted when it came up.:nana Have you thought of modifying your system at all for next season?

Thanks for your message. Despite its fairly average performance this season, I've not really thought about modifying the system to any great extent for next season. It's the same system that has been getting 30%+ ROI long term, so I've no real worry that the recent downward trend will have a significant long term effect. One small thing I might look at is ignoring matches where either team's previous match involved a red card. I think if a player gets sent off, especially early on, then this can mess up the stats a bit. From back-testing, it doesn't have a huge effect, but the ROI does increase a bit. I won't do anything this season, but will have a think in the summer and may introduce it next season.