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Nervous Anorak

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About Nervous Anorak

  • Birthday 05/04/1964

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  1. Re: O/U X.5 system - HELP needed I've read it once, I consider myself to be quite intelligent, especially where statistics and figures are involved, but I have absolutely no idea whatsoever what its about.
  2. Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May
  3. Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May And never looked likely to tonight. Nice win there Al, pretty comforatble for you as well, those odds look great considering even the draw w/have been a winner. Wasn't betting the game myself.
  4. Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May Appalling standard of football in tonights match, Torquay are crap, who'd wanna watch that week in week out ? I'd go as far as saying they made Southend look reasonable. Endless long ball tosh with rarely a yellow shirt collecting, and did you notice how few tackles there were in the game ? There didnt need to be many as each team seemed obsessed with humping it back to the other one. Truly abyssmal entertainment, I use the word loosely. Yet another play off U 3.5. I see a Crewe win in the final, they are the only one of the 4 teams that have looked decent, and no coincidence are the form team by some distance. 18 unbeaten.
  5. Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May http://www.usagoals.com/live/121820-torquay-united-vs-cheltenham-town-/watch/stream/online/free/feed/p2p/en/vivo/tv/gratis/
  6. Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May Watched in my local bookies, Southend were appalling yet again, it's a mystery they got this far. It was only when Harris came on did they ever look like scoring and even then their first was from a goalkeeping calamity. Did anyone follow my above suggestions ?
  7. Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May Thanks HG for the positive comments. Looking at the Odds again for the Southend Lay (Not To Win In 90 Mins), theyve now increased overnight to over Evens. With that in mind I now recommend : Crewe To Qualify (TQ), Odds on Betfair now 1.75 Whilst I still expect Crewe to be on their way to Wembley in 90, the TQ allows for extra time and pens as some safety and it's not as if the potential profit is vastly different. As Crewe are already leading 1-0 on the TQ before a balls been kicked tonight, if they were to score the first goal, the Odds for Southend TQ would likely trade high enough to be able to place a cover bet on. Example : S'end are 2.32 TQ at the moment, let's assume the game starts off cautiously and there's no goal in the first half hour, remember the last time S'end did play anyone at home in at least reasonable form, they didn't score anyhow, and that was 5 games ago. If Crewe were to score around the half hour mark I would envisage the Odds on S'end TQ would rise to at least double what they started at and with a third of the game played already that reduces the chances considerably, so Odds likely to hit 6.0 minimum. So, let's say you used a stake of £25 @ Odds of 1.75 Crewe TQ = Potential Profit £17.80 after 5% commission deducted (Betfair) Crewe score first and you think Southend now have no hope TQ, Odds for them are 6.0 but you wanna protect yourself just in case, so you put £5 on S'end TQ to win your £25 stake back should the unthinkable happen. Now the reason I've explained it this way is because there is a chance that once this game goes in play, the Betfair market might be so underactive for the TQ bets area that you might need to use another site to get your cover on at sensible odds, such as Bet 365. I think trying to get a TQ Lay bet on Crewe if they took the lead might present a few probs on Betfair. If Crewe went 1-0 up tonight in say the 60th minute, the Odds for S'end TQ would probably hit 10.0 upwards, that means your cover stake would only need to be around £2.75 on those Odds. Another option, and you can look at this yourselves because I can't do all the work for you ! have a look to see what the Odds are for Southend to score 2 or more goals in 90 mins. Keep an eye on that In Play, if you run the Crewe TQ and Crewe take the lead, you might get Odds of 6.0 upwards for S'end to score 2 or more, which would be a fantastic bet with potential for two wins it Crewe took the lead, and at 90 mins it was for example 2-2 or 2-3, or Crewe Q'ed in Extra Time or Pens after S'end had scored 2 in 90 mins. How about saying it's still 0-0 at 80 mins, what could you do ? Southend will be getting desperate now so let's back them to score, but NOT the next goal because if Crewe score first Southend might still get one. So just put a bet on for Southend to score, might be as high as 5.0 or 6.0 now, that way if they score and it finishes 90 mins Southend 1-0 but they don't qulaify, again you got two wins. How about Both Teams To Score if it's still 0-0 around 60 to 70 mins. Odds might be around 5.0 upwards, put enough on cover your original Crewe TQ stake, then if it finishes 1-1 as I predict you got two wins there. From the above series of examples it's clear that as long as Southend don't score the first goal, it's going to be hard to lose any Crewe To Qualify bet, unless Crewe take the lead and Southend score within moments of the restart, and they did not look capable of doing so, or Crewe capable of letting them do so, from the evidence of the first leg. There's a lot of scope with a game such as this, but you're going to need to analise it thoroughly, if you've only got 5 mins then forget anything complex as you're more likely to mess it up, something like this will take half an hours planning if you're thinking of a big stake/s. Having said all of the above purely as examples only, I still think 1-1 at 90 mins will be the outcome in this one, but those of you who know me well enough on here will remember I don't encourage betting Under/Over the 2.5 line, strictly Under 3.5 for me whose odds are @ 1.36 Betfair as I look. Finally as I said elsewhere yesterday, I've finished for the UK season so even tho I've spent a lot of time tipping this I'm not actually betting it. I still enjoy doing it so let's see how I fair, Martin
  8. Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May Further to the above, first of all thoughts from the first leg. On reflection Southend were even more pathetic than I origially remembered. I'd forgotten about this piece of crap playing for them who is actually their top scorer with 13 goals, Bilel Moshni. This pathetic excuse for a professional footballer spent more time diving and arguing with the referee, than he did doing anything useful whatsoever. Here he is at his best in the game : I suppose if your stadium is built on a landfill site, as Root's Hall is, construction having started in 1952, then adding more rubbish to it would seem only natural. What amazes me more about this French-Tunisian individual is this alarming statistic : On 31 January 2011, Southend rejected a bid of £250,000 from Blackpool for Mohsni. What could Ian Holloway have possibly seen in this muppet ? Before anyone bangs on about Southends recent home form, take a hard look at it : 2-0 Macclesfield, relegated rubbish 3-0 Barnet, the next best thing to relegated rubbish 2-0 Wimbledon, dire form bottom half of table, lost 5 of a block of 6 games 4-0 Cheltenham, dire form at the time failing to score in 5 consecutive games, this being the 5th Impressed by any of those victories ? You shouldn't be. Not one single "tough" opponent there based on at-the-time form. Prior to those 4 they lost 0-1 to Aldershot. If you take a look at the whole seasons results, almost every win is against bottom half rubbish. Ironically the last team to beat Crewe were Southend, following that Crewe have gone 17 unbeaten home or away. At the time of that match Crewe were midtable. Crewe have only kept one clean sheet Away since then, at Hereford, so I think it's fair to assume they'll concede one in this second leg but I can not imagine them losing this game in 90 mins. Head to head in the 9 games I found between them, there has not been a Draw in any of them so it's about time one came along. 5 of Crewe's last 7 Aways have been Score Draws, 4 have been 1-1 and that is the result in 90 minutes that I feel is the most likely. My tip is to Lay Southend (Not To Win), Betfair Odds 1.94 Edit : See my follow up posting, Odds have changed so there's now better value on Crewe To Qualify [TABLE=class: table_content] [TR=class: table_content_row row_light] [TD=class: table_content_td_left headtohead_datetd] 12/05/2012 [/TD] [TD] League Two Playoffs [/TD] [TD=class: headtohead_matchtd] Crewe vs. Southend [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right headtohead_resulttd] 1:0 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_dark] [TD=class: table_content_td_left headtohead_datetd] 18/02/2012 [/TD] [TD] League Two [/TD] [TD=class: headtohead_matchtd] Southend vs. Crewe [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right headtohead_resulttd] 1:0 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_light] [TD=class: table_content_td_left headtohead_datetd] 08/10/2011 [/TD] [TD] League Two [/TD] [TD=class: headtohead_matchtd] Crewe vs. Southend [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right headtohead_resulttd] 1:3 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_dark] [TD=class: table_content_td_left headtohead_datetd] 15/03/2011 [/TD] [TD] League Two [/TD] [TD=class: headtohead_matchtd] Crewe vs. Southend [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right headtohead_resulttd] 1:0 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_light] [TD=class: table_content_td_left headtohead_datetd] 16/10/2010 [/TD] [TD] League Two [/TD] [TD=class: headtohead_matchtd] Southend vs. Crewe [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right headtohead_resulttd] 0:2 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_dark] [TD=class: table_content_td_left headtohead_datetd] 17/02/2009 [/TD] [TD] League One [/TD] [TD=class: headtohead_matchtd] Southend vs. Crewe [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right headtohead_resulttd] 0:1 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_light] [TD=class: table_content_td_left headtohead_datetd] 20/09/2008 [/TD] [TD] League One [/TD] [TD=class: headtohead_matchtd] Crewe vs. Southend [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right headtohead_resulttd] 3:4 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_dark] [TD=class: table_content_td_left headtohead_datetd] 05/04/2008 [/TD] [TD] League One [/TD] [TD=class: headtohead_matchtd] Crewe vs. Southend [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_right headtohead_resulttd] 1:3 [/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: table_content_row row_light] [TD=class: table_content_td_bottomleft headtohead_datetd] 13/10/2007 [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_bottom] League One [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_bottom headtohead_matchtd] Southend vs. Crewe [/TD] [TD=class: table_content_td_bottomright headtohead_resulttd] 3:0 [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  9. Re: Npower Football League Two Playoff Semi Finals 2nd Leg > 16th / 17th May My advice is to Lay Southend (Not To Win). I saw the first leg, they were ****e and lucky not to come away with a heavier loss. Their defensive calamaties were numerous in the second half, Crewe were overwhelmingly the better team and looked well capable of progressing to the final.
  10. Re: Experiences with following tipsters? No one here would ever doubt that anyone who claims to have "funded multiple betting accounts" has a gambling problem, that would be a suggestion as silly as someone coming onto the Punters Lounge forum bragging about such. To add to that, no one here would dream of suggesting that anyone with all of those allegedly funded accounts would be reckless enough to place more than two bets from them in the quoted timespan either, especially without first seeking the advice of a financial adviser before acting so irresponsibly. He or she would probably advise gaining interest on the "unused" funds during that period through such schemes as an ISA, to be a better and risk free investment, that is assuming those funds were below the maximum annual ISA input of what I recall is £3000 ? As daunting as they appear, I honestly don't think anyone on here is experienced enough to help you solve the dilemas you are currently faced with.
  11. Re: League One Playoff Semi Final > 14th / 15th May Mal, your postings are always very detailed but I feel I need to help you here. IMO you're going too "long range" in your betting, rather than taking the easier option/s where a win has more chance, or you're not doing covers. Firstly the Steveange to qualify bet, you picked an option here that at Odds of 2.62 which might have run to extra time and pens, whereas if they were going to qualify after extra time, to begin with they would first have needed to get a Draw at 90 mins as the first leg was 0-0. The Draw in 90 mins was 3.80, the Away in 90 mins was 4.8, therefore rather than risk a long range loss, it would have been logical IMO to have reduced your potential winning odds, but increased your chances of winning by just Laying Sheff Utd (Not To Win) in 90 mins. The game didn't quite make it to 90 mins as a Draw, but if you were also betting In Play you could have put a safety bet on or Backed Sheff Utd to win towards the end. Another option would have been to Back Over 0.5 or Lay the 0-0 late in the game, that way if Stevenage had scored the only goal late on you would have won the Sheff Utd Lay and any goal ! Two wins for the price of one, or at least break even if Sheff Utd scored. Looking at the York Mansfield game, I see you did + 0 AH @ 2.25 and got your stake returned. Yes you got your stake back but that wasn't why you put the bet on was it ? You wanted to win, so in this instance for you the obvious choice was to Lay York (Not To Win), the Lay Odds were 2.50, so for a £25 Liability you would profit £15.83. Those odds might not look attractive to you, but the fact is they were winning odds if you'd Layed at that price. I have to say, even tho this sounds purely like after eventing, an Away win in this match for Mansfield sounds way too optimistic to me. The Ayr Airdrie game, I see you did another similar to the above by doing a DNB. I couldn't quite make out everything in that thread but have a think about this, it's likely most Play Off matches will be tight starting on a 0-0 from the first leg, so Back the 0-0 and the team you think will win, pre kick off. Then In Play you could Lay the team you backed if they took the lead late on, just for protection. Of course this is all well and good if you're watching or have radio commentary but this was quite an obscure fixture so I guess it was a bit limited in that respect so just have to go with the "feeds" on 365 for the info. My overall feelings are though, that like many punters you're going for the spectacular, and often long range, rather than the more likely winning option but with lower odds. With Lay bets think of it like this : You have a 66% chance of a win as opposed to only a 33% chance on just a Home, Draw, or Away. The psychological advantage of showing alot more Wins in your book should boost moral as well, it certainly made a massive difference for me, especially when I started backing Under 3.5's / 4.5's and had 21 consecutive wins from 27 Decemeber onwards. How many Under/Over 2.5's could I have won in 21 bets ? Have a good think about these tips. Martin
  12. Re: League One Playoff Semi Final > 14th / 15th May Mal, did you not back this up in anyway with a cover/part cover bet ? I didn't read your pre match posting but had I done so I would have suggested any or all of the following. If I was going to take this "to qulaify" bet, I would have first placed something on the 0-0 over 90 mins, which meant that if it was still scoreless late on the odds for Sheff Utd to win inside 90 mins would have been quite high enabling surplus funds to be placed there to cover your orig stake, or place a bet on Stevenage Clean Sheet No, or Sheff Utd Next To Score.
  13. Re: Could use some advice regarding U/O 2.5 system I stopped any Home / Away / Or Lay bets once there were only 3 games to go in the regular season. This was because I thought the results could get rather bizarre (many did) and some teams might not be taking things seriously if nothing to play for. As I like to bet Unders (never Overs) I was sure the Play Offs would present tight low scoring games as proven, where profit was going to be likely.
  14. Re: League One Playoff Semi Final > 14th / 15th May I saw the match, the gym I use has Sky and will usually show the games if I ask, ideal way to work out. Stevenage looked clueless in attack, WTF were some of those 20 yard plus attempts for later in the game ? Not a single shot on target from S'age in the second half. From the moment the sec half kicked off there only looked one possible winner here, three chances for Sheff only a few inches wide between 46 and 60 mins. The varied bets I suggested would have been ideal enabling you to bet Sheff Utd later in the game with the surplus funds, or switch all profit onto them. If I'd Layed Sheff Utd I would have Back bet them minutes after the restart, it was much too one-way for me to have hung on.
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