Robinnho

Putintseva to beat Sansnovich @1.70
Better form, better ranked and leading H2H all pointing to this win.

Jan-Lennard Struff (+2.5 sets) to beat Novak Djokovic at 3.08 with Pinnacle
Struff managed to get a set off Djokovic earlier this year in the Australian Open and I don't see why he's above 3.00 to do the same here. I don't think that he has a legitimate shot at winning, I'm not sure he's there mentally, but he's playing well and Djokovic has been dropping sets recently, might even want to take a breather somewhere if he goes down a break. It's mostly about the odds, though, 3.08 for a set is just too much, I'd have this at 2.50 or so.

Viktoria Azarenka to beat Aryna Sabalenka at 2.00 with William Hill
A rematch from last year and Sabalenka won back then, but I think Azarenka should be a slight fav and not a slight underdog. She's been playing better lately and has more smarts as well, Sabalenka is just still bashing - and her bashing has declined a bit from last year when she was on a high confidence-wise.

Christian Garin to beat Mikhail Kukushkin at 1.84 with Pinnacle
To be fair, I didn't see much of Garin, but Balazs was a joke and Kukushkin struggled nonetheless. He played very average on serve and with no energy from the back of the baseline, Garin is way better in terms of ceilings nowadays and should be able to get under Kukushkin's skin.

Okay, I'll bite on Gerasimov to beat Thompson then at 2.28 with Pinnacle. Also liked him more in the first round.

Cornet (vs. Davis) + Cilic (vs. Kudla) at 1.76 with 888
Davis is in a very bad form. She has played 3 matches after the pandemic and she has not won a single set (inlcuding a lost against a total unknown player): K.Scott (6-3, 6-4), Linette (6-3, 6-2) and Samsonova (6-4, 6-1). Cornet has played several matches during the pandemic and she left good sensations in Cincinatti, where she won in straight sets against Mcnally and Kenin. I know Cilic is not at his best form but the conditions here are great for him and he's so much better than his opponent.

Daniel Evans to win his quarter at 23.00 with bet365
As Czech said, Raonic looks the smartest choice to win that quarter but i like Evans chances here. I see Evans better than Murray and FAA (potentials third rounds). Evans will face Thiem or Cilic in the fourth round. Thiem was demolished by Krajinovic and the conditions don't favour him. Cilic is far from his best form. Raonic and RBA are the 2 players I fear the most but that will be the QF match. 
Angelique Kerber to beat Alja Tomjlanovic at 1.72 with bet365
I know how Kerber comes here but having her at these odds against the Tomjlanovic it's just too juicy. The australian player has done very bad in her last two matches. She was destroyed by Putintseva (6-0, 6-4) in Lexington and lost in a three set match against Kudermetova in Cincinatti so she doesn't look at her best right now. 
I have to add some more things later.. I will edit this post to add them

Well, we are getting a Grand Slam after all – and chances are that we’re going to get another one soon after as well!
Looking at the US Open, it’s hard to be confident with one’s bets when it comes to those players that haven’t played since the coronavirus break and there’s certainly a case to be made for staying away from the first round in many match-us. I’ll be in the action, though, so let’s take a look at some of the matches.
Outright-wise, Djokovic is the big favourite in the men’s draw and that’s obviously right for many reasons. We did see him struggle in the warm-up event though and I don’t want to back him at this sort of odds no matter what. I liked Raonic, though, and I’ll be backing him to win his quarter.
On the women’s side of things, the bookmakers know that Williams isn’t such a big favourite as the media are making her out to be and there’s not much that I like honestly. Osaka has been surprising me lately with how good she is, but getting back-to-back events in such a short time frame will be tough. She’s also withdrawn from the finals as I’m writing this, so there’s that.
Now for the matches – I might add a few more later on, but, for now, I’ve got theses ones lined up. First, I’ve got Feliciano Lopez to win against Carballes Baena. The latter was pretty average on clay in Europe and the conditions in this US Open are quick enough to give Lopez a good advantage, especially given that he’s kept himself in some for during the coronavirus break. I’m taking the set handicap, as I’d reckon that RCB will win if he drags the match on and on.
Next, I’ve got Dennis Novak beating Alejandro Davidovich Fokina for largely the same reasons. Novak can be great in quick conditions, Fokina can’t – and he’s also been disappointing me for quite some time now. I had him down as a big talent, but he’s been struggling to establish himself on the main tour.
Then, I like Corentin Moutet to beat the underperforming Jiri Vesely. Vesely has some wins under his belt and that’s fine, but not against the level of Moutet and the Frenchman has been keeping himself busy on hard in the off-season against top-class players, which should do him a world of good here.
I also like the odds for Bedene to beat Ruusuvuori, as I liked his performances in New York before that and especially his win over Fritz. That was a long match in which he stayed collected throughout and was serving really well.
And, as a small double, I’ll be taking Christian Garin to beat Ulises Blanch together with Ricardas Bernakis to beat Federico Gaio. Both are way better and have played on hard recently.
On the women’s side of things, I’ve got Pera to beat Diyas. She’s been the surprise package for me since the restart and she even has mental resilience after facing Serena and doing well, while Diyas has played just a single match against Li and lost with no resistance whatsoever.
I also like Golubic to beat Lapko. She’s got a good game for faster conditions and she has one of the better serves on the WTA, if that can be even said. Moreover, Lapko hasn’t played since March and has just three wins this year against poor players. Golubic has been keeping herself busy, on the other hand, and can make an impact here.
Milos Raonic to win the 4th quarter at 5.50 with Unibet
Feliciano Lopez (-1.5 sets) to beat Roberto Carballes Baena at 2.07 with Sbobet
Dennis Novak (-1.5 sets) to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 2.03 with Sbobet
Corentin Moutet to beat Jiri Vesely at 1.74 with Pinnacle
Aljaz Bedene to beat Emil Ruusuvuori at 1.84 with Pinnacle
Christian Garin (vs. Blanch) + Ricardas Berankis (vs. Gaio) at 1.70 with Bet365
Bernarda Pera (-3.5) to beat Zarina Diyas at 1.84 with Pinnacle
Viktorija Golubic (-3.5) to beat Vera Lapko at 1.86 with Pinnacle

@liquidglass
I’ve watched a little bit of “Sabalenka” and she outplayed herself with a lot of double errors and unforced errors. Wouldn’t put that on Pegula.
Anyway, let’s see how it will go.

So, Sakkari defeats Williams quite handily, but Serena will remain the mainstream favorite for the US Open regardless I guess. The courts are almost too fast I'd say, which will make things interesting. For short odds, I guess Tsitsipas to beat Opelka should be the pick, but I'm a bit worried that we're looking at two tie-breaks there and that's not what I fancy given Opelka's flow.

Viktoriya Tomova to beat Magdalena Freçh at 2.30 with Parions Sport
I am counting on the current form of the Bulgarian, who has just won the trophy at Sunderland, to beat the Pole who had some difficulties to beat a young Yerolymos ranked almost 200 seats behind her.

Lara Arruabarrena to beat Yafan Wang at 2.50 with Parions Sport
The Chinese has lost her last 5 games including an early elimination in straight sets in the 1st round for her title defense at Acapulco which should put pressure on her shoulders for her entry into this tournament. For her part, the Spaniard played well in the qualifications by beating Inglis and Dolehide without losing a set. I count on her good defensive play and her counter attacks to make the exchanges last and to push the Chinese in lack of confidence to make mistakes.

Caroline Garcia to beat Ysaline Bonaventure at 1.72 with Pinnacle
Frustration everywhere so far for me in this season, but I'll go with Garcia after her determined effort against Minnen. Bonaventure isn't better than Minnen and I think the confidence boost for Garcia is going to be tremendous after overcoming so many deficits in the previous match. The quality is still there and she should be playing more freely with that win on board, so I'm not sure why we're getting almost the same price as against Minnen. I'd have Garcia closer to the 1.50 mark.

Mcnally/Pegula (-3.0 Games) to beat Hsu/Whoriskey at 1.95 with Marathonbet
Mcnally(40)/Pegula(129) have played 8 matches together and they have won 6 of them. They played a couple of matches together 2 weeks ago. Both players have demonstrated to be good double players. Mcnally won in Washington playing with Gauff and they reached the QF's in the AO, losing finally against the best pair of the world, Mladenovic/Babos. Pegula also has won a WTA tournament (Houston).
Hsu(146)/Whoriskey(171) have played a couple of tournaments together (2-2) but the first one was in 2015 and the second one in 2018 so this will be their first match together in almost 2 years. None of them has been ranked into the Top 100.

Vitalia Diatchenko (+5,5 Games) to beat Sofia Kenin at 1.72 with 888
I think Kenin will have a difficult match here. Diatchenko is a very dangerous player on indoors. Diatchenko is one of the players who hits harder of the whole circuit and her game suits very well on indoors (she has a nice record on this surface). She could have won against Sakkari in St. Petersburg (6-3, 4-6, 6-7). Diatchenko dominated Sakkari in some parts of the match with her big hitting but she choked when she had to close the sets (she was leading 3-0 the second set and 5-2 the third set). This surface suits more Diatchenko's game and Kenin looks a little bit out since she won the AO.

Well, let's see what this week is going to bring!
Jill Belen Teichmann (-4) to beat Clara Burel at 1.94 with Pinnacle
Viktoria Kuzmova to beat Paula Badosa Gibert at 1.77 with Pinnacle
A lot has been said about Burel by various guys, but she is yet to prove herself on the main level and I'm not really sure that she's going to make her breakthrough all that soon. Teichmann is more experienced and still improving, so I think that she's going to have every chance to record a comfortable win, especially with Burel's fitness in question. Badosa Gibert's fitness is also in question a bit after her recent withdrawal, but the main reason for this bet is that I rate Kuzmova as the way more complete player of the two. Badosa Gibert is one of the few WTA players that can serve really well for a while, but her defensive skills leave much to be desired and that's where Kuzmova should dominate and eventually prevail.

One pick for ATP Dubai match

BAUTISTA-STRUFF 2:0 sets @ 1.85 willhill (1.83 pinnacle / betfair sportsbook and others)
Both play in similar style with consistency from the baseline but Bautista is better at this game. He will force Struff into unforced errors. The head-to-head is 4-1 to Bautista with 4 easy wins.

 

Carla Suarez Navarro to beat Shai Zhang at 2.15 with Parions Sport
The Spaniard leads 3-0 in the h2h (2 on grass, 1 on hard).
Nothing much to say on this one as I haven't seen none of these 2 play in 2020 but their last meeting was last year in Dubai with pretty much the same condiitions and Suarez won in 2 sets without any kind of troubles.

Stan Wawrinka (-2.5) to beat Frances Tiafoe at 1.99 with Pinnacle
Su-Wei Hsieh (-2.5) to beat Vera Zvonareva at 1.80 with Bet365
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Yulia Putinsteva at 1.57 with Pinnacle
Stan Wawrinka returns to the courts in Acapulco and I fancy him to win quite handily against Tiafoe, who hasn't really impressed me recently with his approach to first serves that simply aren't doing much and that should be costly against someone like Wawrinka unless he adjusts. Even if he does, Wawrinka is likely to be too strong. Meanwhile, I also fancy Hsieh to dispose of the ever-returning Zvonareva that can't really be trusted at all in my opinion despite beating Hsieh when the two met in 2018. Hsieh is playing throughout the year and Zvonareva should have trouble dealing with the slices with little match practice. Finally, I'm going to back the new-look Pavs that impressed in the Australian Open against Putinsteva, as her power should just be too much for the world's number 32. Pavs' new coach has taught her how to keep things under control errors-wise and that should be enough if she sticks to the game plan.

Certainly didn't bore me @OddsPredictor and I'm sure I'm not the only one that feels like that. The bottom line though is that for better or worse, this thread requires reasoning. I understand that you aren't able to provide that - beyond that a player is worth backing for reasons of perceived value - and so I'd suggest that you post in the glory hunt thread. Last year a member was doing something similar to you - can't remember the name - and he ended up posting all his picks on the glory hunt thread for a period and also posted on here when there were some additional reasons besides value for his picks.
It's up to you what you do of course, but I'll finish by saying again that this is a friendly thread it's just that it's set up in such a way that straight picks are welcome as long as there are a few words to back them up. Not everyone worships exclusively at the altar of mathematical value and so other reasons for why a bet is being taken are appreciated and can help people to decide whether to follow or not 

However, every match is unique. Tennis and sports are not mathematics. Me too I fancy Thiem to lift the trophy, but....no chance to place money on this desire.
Djokovic is a monster. Impossible to go against him in terms of money. 
Good luck to Thiem,  
And Good luck to Kenin. Here yes, I will place money on Kenin to lift the trophy, because there is no woman monster out there. 
I never trust Muguruza, and at the same time I never trust any WTA material.
50/50 in my eyes the WTA final, I go with the strong and impressive Kenin at higher price. 
See you with results!

I'm not too troubled by fitness concerns myself, Halep has rushed through all her matches so far, just one tie-break and zero dropped sets. 

Simona Halep to beat Garbine Muguruza at 1.65 with Pinnacle
Just repeating honestly, it still seems to me that Halep isn't getting a lot of respect for reasons I don't understand.

Rafael Nadal (-4,5 Games) to beat Dominic Thiem at 1.80 with 888
I will be quick because the match starts soon. Thiem has not impressed me at all. Alex Bolt won 2 sets against him and Fritz (who came here in a bad form took another 1 from him). Thiem never has done long runs here in the AO. Nadal has destroyed all his oponents except for Kyrgios who gave him a hard match (but that was expected).

@CzechPunter I’m not sure if Barty will have an easy win against Kenin. All the wins of Barty here in straight sets have been against tall players (Hercog, Rybakina and Kvitova). For tall players like these it’s too hard to play against Barty and her slice but she dropped a set against Riske (6-1) and Tsurenko (who has been a mess for a long time). I don’t see Kenin suffering that shot and I see her taking the lead of the match (in some parts of it) and dominating it from the centre court as she usually does. The serve can make the difference of course… (I expect a win of Barty but Kenin can trouble her I think).