Tennis Tips - August 24 - August 30

[CzechPunter]

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[CzechPunter]

Two very good weeks were followed by a bad one, let's see what the next days are going to bring!

[CzechPunter]

Karolina Muchova to beat Naomi Osaka at 2.26 with Pinnacle

I'd much rather be on Muchova here at odds against than on Osaka at odds on. Muchova is very talented, has been playing a lot in the corona off-season, and has already started in New York with a splendid serving performance against Li. She was testing some things and that's why it was tighter than it should've been, but she's being coached well and she'll be ready for this challenge.

[888888]

anyone on Struff to beat Shapovalov @2.3 or Millman to beat Isner @2.6 ?

Both under dogs but its the beginning of the season under special circumstances so hard to know how good or fit the supposedly favorites are

[Larkin22]

Didn't see Struff but Millman struggled against Mannarino for most of the match while Isner looked in good rhythm with his serve, so on this surface its going to be really hard for Millman to break at all. 

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, the conditions should make Isner a big fav, he also looked good. Didn't see Shapovalov but Struff was decent. He doesn't have the high-ceiling of Shapo, but he's more solid, so it should be about which Shapo shows up. 

[CzechPunter]

Not sure if Muchova will be able to work with the injury, oh well.

[CzechPunter]

Just protecting my bankroll today, nothing stands out. Osaka to beat Yastremska looks like the only reasonable pick to me, as Osaka was good and Yastremska injured, but don't see any value in anything.

[CzechPunter]

[Torque]

18 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

That was incredible - never seen stats like it. Krajinovic is capable of serving really well but those numbers are something else. The only two points he lost on serve were first serves. It's even more remarkable when you consider that Thiem is obviously decent on return.

[CzechPunter]

So, Sakkari defeats Williams quite handily, but Serena will remain the mainstream favorite for the US Open regardless I guess. The courts are almost too fast I'd say, which will make things interesting. For short odds, I guess Tsitsipas to beat Opelka should be the pick, but I'm a bit worried that we're looking at two tie-breaks there and that's not what I fancy given Opelka's flow.

[vvararu]

Anything but a clear win of Mertens over Pegula would surprise me. Pegula played 2 more matches in quallies so Mertens will be fresher. The quality is on her side as well. I think that odds on Mertens should be lower than 1.4 @unibet

[liquidglass]

2 hours ago, vvararu said:

Anything but a clear win of Mertens over Pegula would surprise me. Pegula played 2 more matches in quallies so Mertens will be fresher. The quality is on her side as well. I think that odds on Mertens should be lower than 1.4 @unibet

I disagree with you on the right odds being lower than 1.4. Mertens may well win but she is not worth being carried away for. There is currently no marker to really test where Merten's game is currently at considering that the Kudermentova and Mladenovich matches were kind of suspect. Oo the other hand, it is Pegula who has really been tested in a variety of tough matches on hard court this year, not to add the home advantage even if we call it an empty arena. Fatigue also should not be a problem. Anyone who beats the Current Brady and Sabalenka en route to any final should be respected.

[vvararu]

@liquidglass

I’ve watched a little bit of “Sabalenka” and she outplayed herself with a lot of double errors and unforced errors. Wouldn’t put that on Pegula.

Anyway, let’s see how it will go.

[CzechPunter]

Very thrilled about Raonic for the US Open, he's got the weapons and he can just ball-bash his way to win. Very mentally steady as well, I think that the off-season has helped him a lot.

[vvararu]

1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Very thrilled about Raonic for the US Open, he's got the weapons and he can just ball-bash his way to win. Very mentally steady as well, I think that the off-season has helped him a lot.

To come back after 4:6 4:5 and win is something. Krajinovic seemed to be everywhere and still....

[DrO]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Very thrilled about Raonic for the US Open, he's got the weapons and he can just ball-bash his way to win. Very mentally steady as well, I think that the off-season has helped him a lot.

Very brave thinking considering that he should have lost to Krajinovic last night. Somehow he slipped trough.

And who said there is no spectators in stadium?
There was one to watch this particular match

[CzechPunter]

Krajinovic is playing in the form of his life though, I would say that it was a very good win to be honest. Of course, the problem is that he can face tricky conditions or something and lose the impact of his serve, but he's fit and he can frustrate players to no end. Seeing how Thiem was returning against Krajinovic, I'm wondering what Raonic would do to him  .

[DrO]

Krajinovic's game was almost flawless until he served for the match. And then he choked..completely choked. Nerves started to do their thing and once again it turned out that Filip does not have a good mentality for this kind of matches..it's a shame becuse he fought and really played good  tennis and he showed that victory over Thiem was not "one match wonder".
Hope that his coach,Janko Tipsarevic,could work on his mental issues as well as on his game..

As for the Raonic. He was nowhere until the end of second set. But from that time on he was on fire. He gave no chance to Filip. My impression is that he improved his bh for a bit,while his fh is like some missile on the fast surface like this one. Still,he have to do much better against Tsitsipas.

 

[CzechPunter]

Hoping that there won't be any protests like this during the US Open. I get that the Americans are protesting and what not, but why is an international event affected?

[Larkin22]

I think that even though the racial profiling has been more apparent in America with recent events it is present in nearly every society and transcends just the police profiling to larger issues with how the black community is treated worldwide. Also with it being the US Open its more likely that the organisers and majority of American sportsmen involved will want to send a message.

 

 

[cluelessG]

As Larkin22 said, the tournament is run by an US organization and corporate image is important for financial results. I turned on a hockey TV channel yesterday and the first thing I heard was "How dare NHL proceed playing on Wednesday when NBA postponed their match(es)?". The NHL promptly cancelled Thursday's matches.

[CzechPunter]

I mean I'm pretty sure that we're going to have something in the US Open, but it's tremendously unfortunate.

[bet4fun]

Roberto bautista agut is an amazing talent but he almost choked everytime he broke Novak. I did not see anyone breaking Novak's game so consistently but everytime he broke he got broken. If he has to win a grand slam has to improve on this point

[bet4fun]

How do you guys bet in grandslams. I mean there are 124 matches played around in the first 2 days and then the number comes down as we approach the final. the first 4 days i think is when the bankroll can be made. I am planning to go with multiples this time around

[DrO]

 

[delfino]

This is the now or never for Raonic to win his first grand slam in us open. Reminds me of Cilic, Wawrinka, Del Potro in the past.

But he must start to show his mouth from today against Djokovic.....

Azarenka very hot too and too much in my eyes for the every now and then Osaka.....

Two outsiders today in a combo, wise medium stakes, not something crazy, I will back Raonic to lift the Us Open, but only a day before the start of the tournament, and i hope the sports to remain aside from the politics and the presidential elections in Usa. 

Edited August 29, 2020 by delfino

[Bettingboots]

I backed Raonic for a couple of years, for Wimbledon, expecting big performances. But he's a mental midget against the top players. 

Its good to see him recover from his injury problems, but I doubt his game will return to his best levels from a few years ago.

The US Open will be interesting for Raonic and many other players because of the much weaker field, but only if someone can take out Novak first.

 

Edited August 29, 2020 by Bettingboots
spelling

[Bettingboots]

..and right on cue, Milos being Milos.

[Torque]

Raonic has no chance at the US Open - not unless the draw opens up like it did for Bartoli at Wimbledon years ago and even then I wouldn't want to rely on him. When it comes to the crunch moments he just can't seem to get it done, even with something as potent as his serve to help him. Against Djokovic just now he won the first set for the loss of just one game having broken Djokovic twice - that takes some doing as Raonic is poor on return and it's likely the only reason he managed it was because Djokovic was injured or ill or distracted or whatever and he still couldn't get over the line and win.

He had Djokovic on the ropes at 15-30 early in the second set and didn't convert which is fair enough, then in his next service game he lost three points in a row from 40-30 to get broken and that was the second set done. He did well to go a break ahead right at the start of the third, but to lose seven points in a row on serve and go from a break up to a break down just isn't good enough at the highest level where the margins between success and failure can be wafer thin. If Isner got a break up on Djokovic in the final set of a match I'm pretty sure he would close it out and that's the difference between a big server who is able to maximise his talents and Raonic unfortunately.