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Pep004

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  1. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from sajtion in Premier League Predictions > Jun 23rd - 25th   
    Manchester United v Sheffield United
    Preview: Only 2 points are separating currently 5th Manchester United and 8th Sheffield United so we should have an intense match tonight on Old Trafford. The official referee will be Anthony Taylor who usually likes to show a high number of cards. The weather in Manchester is sunny so the pitch condition will be good, but it will be quite warm as 27°C is predicted around 20:00.

    Manchester with Ole Gunnar Solskjear had plenty of ups and downs this season but they are still aiming for the top 4 and the Champions League in the next season. To reach that, they will have to close the gap with 4th Chelsea who are 4 points in front of them.  To do that, they have undoubtedly win this match against Sheffield who are doing surprisingly good this season. Pogba was one of the brightest individuals in the second half against Tottenham last Friday, and I expect the French midfielder to come back in the first XI which means Ole will probably drop the young McTominay or change the formation, which I think won’t happen. I believe Man U remembers how they were 2-0 down in the first match on Bramall Lane and I expect them to start way more serious from the first minute here. Solskjaer has almost no injury issues and except maybe Lindelof who had a minor injury against Tottenham, he has all important players available.
    Sheffield absolutely surprised everyone with the current 8th place but with 44 points, they are only 7 points above the 14th Southampton. Without doubt, they can be relaxed as there is no chance they will find themselves in the relegation battle, but the income if you finish 8th or 14th is not the same, moreover however it sounds funny when you see teams like Manchester United, Arsenal, Everton, Tottenham, Wolverhampton, around, they theoretically still have chances to reach European spots for the next season. Chris Wilder has few more issues than his colleague on the other bench, as he can not count on the first goalkeeper Henderson (loaned from Manchester United), and suspended fullback Egan. Moreover, the fitness status of central defender O’Connell who missed the first two fixtures of Sheffield is questionable.
    I expect Manchester United to have an upper hand in this encounter. Individually, it’s completely useless to compare these two sides as Manchester is undoubtedly way better. The question is what kind of Manchester will we see on the pitch tonight? If we will see the Man United from the second half against Tottenham, I think we can comfortably aim for higher odds like 2,40 for Asian handicap -1,5. Regarding the financial status, wagers, and the fan’s expectations, I think Manchester United are way more “in need” of all three points here. Sheffield is definitely a side that likes to surprise bigger teams but without their first goalkeeper and important defenders, I think their chances are even a bit smaller. They are a team that likes to play crosses, push for set-pieces, as they are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to aerial duels, but Manchester United with some really tall players like Maguire (1,94m) should have an answer to that.
    The betting suggestion is to split the stake into those two options:
    Manchester United -1,25 @2,04 Pinnacle Manchester United team totals over 1,5 @1,70 Pinnacle  
    Norwich v Everton
    Preview: Carrow Road in Norwich will be the venue of the match between Norwich and Everton. If nothing spectacular will happen in those last rounds, Carrow Road won’t host the Premier League matches next season as Norwich is sitting deep at the bottom with 6 points behind the relegation “line” and moreover, besides Everton, they still have face Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester City until the end of the season. Everton on the other side are for them on a disastrous 12th place with 38 points and are pretty far from the European spots. The official referee will be Andy Madley whose average of yellow cards is 3,38 per match.
    Norwich who are still in FA Cup as they qualified through the penalty shootouts against Tottenham as mentioned aren’t in a good situation. With plenty of tough matches upcoming, they are 6 points behind the relegation zone and after the horrible performance against Southampton (3-0 defeat), it is hard to say some positive words about this group. They look too weak offensively – scored only 25 goals in 30 matches, (the worst in the league), too weak defensively – conceded 55 goals (2nd worst), and I really can not see any positive things about this team. They have Hanley, Zimmermann, and Byram out injured, while the midfielder Stiepermann just came back to training after being tested positive for the virus earlier.
    Everton expected a way different season as they have and the 12th position is definitely not something that will satisfy nor the leaderboard, nor the fans. Ancelotti still has plenty of players on the injury list – Sidibe, Mina, Delph, Tosun, Walcott, and Gbamin, but looking at the possible lineup we can still see a very decent squad with some great individuals who should perform way better. Against Liverpool, they were concretely outplayed when it comes for possession (only 29%), but they had their chances and they defended pretty well organized. Ancelotti is in the lead of Everton since December 2019 and he has 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats in Premier League. I do believe that this club can profit from his experiences and I expect them to bounce back until the end of the season.
    Even though the head-to-head statistics are 5-5 and that Norwich shocked Everton on the first match this season and beat them with 0-2, I think it’s payback time and even though trends are aiming to the both to score and overs, I simply like the odds on straight away win. I don’t know how much strength and especially living hopes are still in the locker-room of Norwich while on the other side Everton simply have to improve their “balance” until the end of the season. With an experienced coach as Ancelotti definitely is, as mentioned, I expect Everton to bounce back a little and finish in top10.
    Betting suggestion: 
    Everton -0,5 @1,93 Pinnacle
  2. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Premier League Predictions > Jun 17th - 22nd   
    Preview: Premier League is back! And already in the first round after the break, we will watch the derby between Manchester City and Arsenal. Citizens are currently holding the 2nd place with 4 points more than 3rd Leicester, while Arsenal have another difficult season - currently 9th, but the 5th Manchester United is only 5 points in front. The referee will be Anthony Taylor, who we can remember from the match between PSG and Borussia Dortmund where he gave 7 yellow and 1 red card.
    Manchester City lost the Manchester derby right before the virus outbreak and will be looking to bounce back with the positive result against the Gunners. This break gave their manager Pep Guardiola something that he probably can not remember since he joined the Citizens - it gave him all players available for the match. The team that often have two or even three regulars out due to injuries, will this time be complete and due to the possibility of 5 substitutions, we can expect some tactical changes during the match. City won 5 of the last 6 matches, but except pretty solid performance against Real Madrid in the Champions League, their performances in the league weren't something exceptional.
    Arsenal as mentioned is having another season full of ups and downs, and can not find consistency. When you already think things will get better now, they disappoint once again or vice versa - you think they will need a lot of time to recover, and they perform at their best. Therefore they are really hard to predict. They have a strong weapon on their bench in Arteta, who has worked as Guardiola's assistant in City for years and knows the club very well. He can not count on Torreira and Chambers, but has all other players available.
    Tough to say what is gonna happen after the break. I expect Manchester City to control the game, having a huge amount of possession as usual but Arsenal on the other hand with players like Lacazette, Aubameyang, Pepe, ... will definitely be dangerous on the break. I think that during the normal season if those two teams are in a normal rhythm of games, those odds are pretty precise, but after the pause, I think there is absolutely no value on the home side. Don't get me wrong, the stats and everything is hardly pointing to a clear home victory and even I do think Citizens will win this match, but odds are as short as 1,35 which means bookies are giving Man City 75% to win the match. Well, for me, given the situation, that's simply too much. With the offensive strength of both sides, and especially due to the fact that City this season simply misses one leader as Kompany (+ injuries of Laporte), I think Arsenal will score at least once here.
    Betting suggestion: 
    both to score & over 2,5 goals at 1,943 Pinnacle
  3. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from AndreBR in La Liga Predictions > Jun 15th - 19th   
    Osasuna v Atletico Madrid
    Preview: Stadium El Sadar in Pamplona will host the match between 11th Osasuna and 6th Atletico Madrid. The referee will be Ricardo de Burgos who is known as a referee that likes to show plenty of cards. He has shown 59 yellow and 3 red cards in last 10 matches. Atletico will continue their “war” for the CL spot, while Osasuna pretty much safe in the middle of the table with 10 points above the relegation zone.
    For me, the team from Pamplona is definitely one of the surprises in La Liga this season, as I didn’t expect them to be in so much comfortable situation 10 rounds before the end. Of course, there is still plenty of matches, and things can turn “southern”, but I don’t believe it. They returned after the break with the draw away at Real Sociedad, where it’s true that they were defending for the majority of the match, but they scored first, and when Osasuna scores first, it’s always tough to break them down as they really drop the defensive line and simply defend for the rest of the game. The question about tonight’s match is if they will change their 5-men defense back to 4, or keep it at 5 as they played the majority of the match against Sociedad. The best goalscorer Avila is still out injured, which means we will probably once again see the pair Adrian Lopez – Cardona.
    Atletico is at the moment on the 6th spot, which definitely isn’t enough for their demands. Regarding the squad and the importance of the name of the club in past years, it’s simply necessary for Simeone’s men to reach at least the 4th spot. Getafe and Sevilla both lost 2 points this round, which means a very good opportunity for Atletico to jump higher on the league table. That could be the round, where Atletico jumps over Getafe and Sociedad (if they fail against Alaves) and reduces the gap with Sevilla on only 2 points! Simeone will miss Vrsaljko, Vitolo, and Felipe, but has the whole first 11 available, so there should be no excuses for tonight.
    Even though there are rumors that Osasuna will go back to the 4-men defense, I have serious doubts about that and I expect them with 5 at the back. If there will be no crazy goals out of nowhere – regarding the two opponents that shouldn’t happen – then that should stay more like a lower scoring match, but still with the away side taking all the three points. Atletico is definitely a team that belongs in the top4 of the league and it would be a huge surprise if that won’t happen. As mentioned, results in this round are going in the favor of Atletico, but all of that will be useless if they don’t add three points to their name. They are the better side, they have much more experiences, they already dropped points with Bilbao last round, and they will win this match no matter what!
    Betting suggestion: 
    Atletico Madrid -0,5 @1,88 Pinnacle Other suggestions: Atletico & under 2,5 @3,70, Atletico win to nil @2,80
  4. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from AndreBR in La Liga Predictions > Jun 15th - 19th   
    Getafe v Espanyol
    Preview: Getafe is still flying high, keeping 5th place with 46 points but there is no doubt, that it will be very tough to keep this place with names like Atletico Madrid and Valencia being behind. With 4 and 5 points less, there are also Granada and Villarreal who can somehow count on a surprise as well. Getafe’s opponent will be the last placed Espanyol, who drastically changed after Abelardo took the team in his hand.
    Getafe surely didn’t count on losing in Granada (2-1) and will try to bounce back today against Espanyol. Of course, that won’t be anywhere near easy, as Espanyol are in bloody need of points. With Etxeita suspended, we will probably see the pair Djene-Cabaco in the central defense. Bordalas has also Arambarri and Maksimović available after suspension, therefore the central midfield of Getafe will definitely look better than against Granada.
    Espanyol as mentioned above have changed a lot since they named Abelardo as a head coach. All the 5 wins they got this season were under his leadership (and 18 of 25 goals) and I seriously think they won’t be the one that will be relegated. They won an important match in the last round against relegation rival Alaves with 2-0 and they had impressive 19 shots with 69% possession in this match. They also allowed only 1 shot to the opponent, who was really with the player less from the 19th minute on, but that doesn’t change the fact that we Abelardo wants to have an offensive-minded team on the pitch.
    I wouldn’t be surprised to see Espanyol having more possession in this match, but that doesn’t bother Getafe too much as they are a team that likes to strike directly after winning the possession. Both sides will want all three points here, but I think that odds are for the winner’s market are set pretty good, just a bit above evens. But I do like the goals market as I think we might see much more offensive from Espanyol than bookies are expecting.
    Betting suggestion:
    both teams to score @2,50 Pinnacle over 2 goals @2,28 Pinnacle
  5. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in La Liga Predictions > Jun 15th - 19th   
    Levante v Sevilla
    Short preview: today at 19:30, 12th placed Levante will host 3rd Sevilla on Estadio Milo Cano in Nucia. The stadium will be empty, therefore Levante won't be able to enjoy the support of the home crowd and as we were able to see in Bundesliga, the advantage of the home ground has almost disappeared. For now, there is no pressure on Levante as they are 9 points above the relegation. Sevilla on the other side took advantage of the 28th round and made the gap with Atletico Madrid a bit bigger (4 points).
    Levante drew in the local derby against Valencia 3 days ago, and once again shown that they are a team that likes to steal points from bigger clubs. They had a very positive record at home before the outbreak of Covid-19 as they won 9 of possible 12 points in the last 4 matches, including the 1-0 win over Real Madrid. Levante actually grabbed a win against both giants - Real and Barcelona on Milo Cano but the ambiance definitely won't be the same against Sevilla. The major issue for the manager Paco Lopez is that he has his best scorer Roger Marti unavailable due to suspension.
    Sevilla is coming into the match after comfortably getting 3 points on the derby with Betis and without any injury concerns for the coach Lopetegui. One major factor which is going in their favor is the fact, that they have a pretty big squad and for example today, he can use players like Banega, Gudelj, En-Nesyri, Suso, Gomez, Rony Lopes, Escudero, Vazquez, ... who all stayed or on the bench, or were subbed in against Betis. 
    I expect Levante to try to play and surprise another big team in La Liga but at the same time I see this Sevilla with Lopetegui on the bench pretty serious and I don't believe they will let their Champions League place to someone else. They are 3 points ahead of Sociedad and 4 in front of Getafe and Atletico Madrid and as they play first, they can add more pressure on others again. Here, I have mostly in mind Atletico Madrid, who will definitely push hard to get into this top4. Usually, we see goals between Levante and Sevilla, and with the fact that there will be no extra pressure for the home side, as mentioned, I expect them to attack and surprise Sevilla. On the other hand, Sevilla simply possess too much quality, they started this period with a very decent performance and clean win over the city rivals, and I expect them scoring at least once more than Levante.
     
    Betting suggestions:
    Sevilla -0,5 @1,77 Pinnacle both teams to score @1,80 Pinnacle both to score & over 2,5 goals @2,26 Pinnacle Sevilla to win & both to score @3,50 Pinnacle * I think odds on Sevilla are pretty short, and in-play you might get much better odds really early in the game. Anyways, here are suggestions, pick the one that suits you the best. Still, I suggest taking smaller stakes! If you are aiming to take all options, then I suggest splitting the stake!
  6. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in La Liga Predictions > Jun 11th - 14th   
    Sevilla v Real Betis
    Preview: La Liga is back! And they will offer us so-called "El Gran Derbi" between Sevilla and Real Betis, two teams from Sevilla. As we were used to see in past seasons, Sevilla are the club with the upper hand as they are once again much better positioned than their rival (Sevilla 3rd, with 47 points; Betis 12th, with 33 points). At the moment, Sevilla is in a very hot spot, as they are the leading team in the group of 4 teams - Sevilla 47, Real Sociedad and Getafe 46, and Atletico Madrid 45 points, plus we can not cut off Valencia on the 7th with 42 points. Therefore every single match will be very important for the team of Lopetegui. Real Betis on the other side are currently 12th, and even though they had bigger ambitions before the season. Right now, they are 12 points behind 6th Atletico and 8 points above the relegation zone.
    This time, Pizjuan definitely won't look like that...
    Sevilla was in a pretty solid form before the break as they won away at as mentioned, very good Getafe with 0-3 on Coliseum, then Osasuna at home with 3-2, and in the last match they drew with away at Atletico Madrid (2-2). Besides that, they played 0-0 at home and 1-1 away at Cluj and will play face AS Rome in the next phase of the Europa League.  Coach Lopetegui has some problems with the winger Ocampos, who has slightly injured his adductor and is questionable. As we were able to see in Bundesliga, rotations will be very important as they plan to play all 11 rounds of La Liga in only 6 weeks! Sevilla have a pretty wide squad and with a very good coach as Lopetegui definitely is, they should not be among those who will suffer a lot due to the short bench.
    The board of Real Betis had much bigger expectations for this season, as they spent a bit more than 100M € in the transfer period before the season. The break might even come at a good time for them as, except the last surprising win over Real Madrid with 2-1, they had a run of 7 matches without winning the match. In my opinion, they have an exceptional squad and those who were reading my posts were able to see that I liked to play overs and both teams to score on their matches, as they were simply a team that was very solid offensively, and at the same time very weak at the defense. They conceded 43 goals, plenty of them due to the lack of concentration and poor positioning. Talking about the depth, Betis isn't a team that should be among those struggling the most either, as Rubi has some option to rotate as well.
    As I said many times, in my opinion, matches are the best training, but the tempo will be simply extremely high and for some teams very hardly followed. Some players were used to play with this rhythm, but most of them aren't and therefore I suggest being careful with stakes for 1-2 rounds, to see a bit how some individuals worked during the quarantine. Obviously, clubs were tracking their activity level, giving them training, checking all the available data but still, some players worked harder than others and that should be visible in those first rounds. I'd go with Sevilla here, but not without their fans on Pizjuan. Fans in a derby like this are always a huge advantage, especially in those two clubs, where they always prepare a living hell to each other. This time, it will be more about tactics, superiority, team quality, individual quality, and I think Betis is simply too weak at the back, and I expect Sevilla to score at least twice. Still, that might not be enough for the win...
    Betting suggestions: 
    both teams to score @1,80 Pinnacle Sevilla team totals over 1,5 @1,925 both teams to score & over 2,5 goals @2,24 Pinnacle
  7. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from sajtion in La Liga Predictions > Jun 11th - 14th   
    Sevilla v Real Betis
    Preview: La Liga is back! And they will offer us so-called "El Gran Derbi" between Sevilla and Real Betis, two teams from Sevilla. As we were used to see in past seasons, Sevilla are the club with the upper hand as they are once again much better positioned than their rival (Sevilla 3rd, with 47 points; Betis 12th, with 33 points). At the moment, Sevilla is in a very hot spot, as they are the leading team in the group of 4 teams - Sevilla 47, Real Sociedad and Getafe 46, and Atletico Madrid 45 points, plus we can not cut off Valencia on the 7th with 42 points. Therefore every single match will be very important for the team of Lopetegui. Real Betis on the other side are currently 12th, and even though they had bigger ambitions before the season. Right now, they are 12 points behind 6th Atletico and 8 points above the relegation zone.
    This time, Pizjuan definitely won't look like that...
    Sevilla was in a pretty solid form before the break as they won away at as mentioned, very good Getafe with 0-3 on Coliseum, then Osasuna at home with 3-2, and in the last match they drew with away at Atletico Madrid (2-2). Besides that, they played 0-0 at home and 1-1 away at Cluj and will play face AS Rome in the next phase of the Europa League.  Coach Lopetegui has some problems with the winger Ocampos, who has slightly injured his adductor and is questionable. As we were able to see in Bundesliga, rotations will be very important as they plan to play all 11 rounds of La Liga in only 6 weeks! Sevilla have a pretty wide squad and with a very good coach as Lopetegui definitely is, they should not be among those who will suffer a lot due to the short bench.
    The board of Real Betis had much bigger expectations for this season, as they spent a bit more than 100M € in the transfer period before the season. The break might even come at a good time for them as, except the last surprising win over Real Madrid with 2-1, they had a run of 7 matches without winning the match. In my opinion, they have an exceptional squad and those who were reading my posts were able to see that I liked to play overs and both teams to score on their matches, as they were simply a team that was very solid offensively, and at the same time very weak at the defense. They conceded 43 goals, plenty of them due to the lack of concentration and poor positioning. Talking about the depth, Betis isn't a team that should be among those struggling the most either, as Rubi has some option to rotate as well.
    As I said many times, in my opinion, matches are the best training, but the tempo will be simply extremely high and for some teams very hardly followed. Some players were used to play with this rhythm, but most of them aren't and therefore I suggest being careful with stakes for 1-2 rounds, to see a bit how some individuals worked during the quarantine. Obviously, clubs were tracking their activity level, giving them training, checking all the available data but still, some players worked harder than others and that should be visible in those first rounds. I'd go with Sevilla here, but not without their fans on Pizjuan. Fans in a derby like this are always a huge advantage, especially in those two clubs, where they always prepare a living hell to each other. This time, it will be more about tactics, superiority, team quality, individual quality, and I think Betis is simply too weak at the back, and I expect Sevilla to score at least twice. Still, that might not be enough for the win...
    Betting suggestions: 
    both teams to score @1,80 Pinnacle Sevilla team totals over 1,5 @1,925 both teams to score & over 2,5 goals @2,24 Pinnacle
  8. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Bundesliga I & II Predictions > June 3rd - 8th   
    Eintracht Frankfurt v Mainz
    Betting suggestion:
    both to score & over 2,5 goals @1,85 Pinnacle Frankfurt team totals over 1,5 @1,73 Pinnacle Short preview: I’ve been on the “Frankfurt train” for a whole, and I will keep with them as they simply look like a team that found the way how to get the things done after the break. Yes, they lost against Bayern in the first match with 5-2, but I think it’s really unnecessary to speak about Bayern and compare it to the rest of the league at the moment.  Frankfurt have won their last two matches, and neither of them was against an easy opponent. Firstly, they won against Wolfsburg away, then against Werder. Two teams in different zones, first fighting for European spots, while second fighting to avoid the relegation. This time, they will face another team that is fighting to avoid the relegation, but at least at the moment seems to be pretty weak and even though they somehow found the way in past years to avoid to be relegated, it seems more and more possible, that they will find themselves on positions that are leading to the “Zweite Bundesliga”, or at least to qualifications with the 3rd best team of the second league. They drew against Union Berlin, they lost against Leipzig and Hoffenheim at home, and they will be pretty much under pressure today against Frankfurt. As I’ve said in the past two rounds, Frankfurt isn’t a bad team and they deserve to be at least in the top 10 if not higher. With Andre Silva and Dost keeping up in form, always dangerous Kostić and Kamada, this team of Hütter especially now, playing “relaxed” as they made an 8 points gap with the 16th Fortuna, will be simply too much at least offensively. They conceded some easy goals anyways, especially against Freiburg (3-3), but their offensive part have delivered so far, therefore I think taking their goals is the safest option. Interesting option is also Frankfurt & over 2,5 goals at 2,75!
  9. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from allyhibs in Bundesliga I & II Predictions > June 3rd - 8th   
    Eintracht Frankfurt v Mainz
    Betting suggestion:
    both to score & over 2,5 goals @1,85 Pinnacle Frankfurt team totals over 1,5 @1,73 Pinnacle Short preview: I’ve been on the “Frankfurt train” for a whole, and I will keep with them as they simply look like a team that found the way how to get the things done after the break. Yes, they lost against Bayern in the first match with 5-2, but I think it’s really unnecessary to speak about Bayern and compare it to the rest of the league at the moment.  Frankfurt have won their last two matches, and neither of them was against an easy opponent. Firstly, they won against Wolfsburg away, then against Werder. Two teams in different zones, first fighting for European spots, while second fighting to avoid the relegation. This time, they will face another team that is fighting to avoid the relegation, but at least at the moment seems to be pretty weak and even though they somehow found the way in past years to avoid to be relegated, it seems more and more possible, that they will find themselves on positions that are leading to the “Zweite Bundesliga”, or at least to qualifications with the 3rd best team of the second league. They drew against Union Berlin, they lost against Leipzig and Hoffenheim at home, and they will be pretty much under pressure today against Frankfurt. As I’ve said in the past two rounds, Frankfurt isn’t a bad team and they deserve to be at least in the top 10 if not higher. With Andre Silva and Dost keeping up in form, always dangerous Kostić and Kamada, this team of Hütter especially now, playing “relaxed” as they made an 8 points gap with the 16th Fortuna, will be simply too much at least offensively. They conceded some easy goals anyways, especially against Freiburg (3-3), but their offensive part have delivered so far, therefore I think taking their goals is the safest option. Interesting option is also Frankfurt & over 2,5 goals at 2,75!
  10. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Bundesliga I & II Predictions > June 3rd - 8th   
    Freiburg v Borussia Moenchengladbach
    Betting suggestions:
    Gladbach -0,5 @1,80 Pinnacle Gladbach team totals over 1,5 @1,74 Pinnacle Short preview: The first duel of the 30th round of Bundesliga, will be played on Schwarzwald-Stadion, where will 8th placed Freiburg host the 4th Gladbach. Those two teams look much closer if comparing their position than the number of points – Freiburg 38, Gladbach 56. Therefore both in a completely different situation, but they both have a chance to finish with the same “award” at the end – at least when it comes to the European spots. Freiburg is 4 points behind 6th Wolfsburg, while Gladbach is “sharing” the 4th spot with Bayer Leverkusen. Therefore, it can happen that they finish 5th and 6th, which means both will participate in the Europe League next season. As I’ve mentioned in the last analyses, there are only 5 rounds until the end, and regarding the fact that Gladbach will have to face Bayern away in the next round, and Wolfsburg and “awaken” Hertha at home, they are simply not allowed to skip points here. With empty stadiums, we’ve seen that there is a much smaller advantage of the home ground, so I am willing to take them even though the odds are pretty short. The importance of three points for them is simply too big, they raised the atmosphere in the locker-room with the 4-1 win over Union Berlin, and after some of their individuals are performing as they are, I do believe in this team. Freiburg have won only 3 times since the 14th of December 2019 and are on the road downwards for a while now (3 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats – before the break and 0, 2, 2 after the break). To be more precise, they drew with Leipzig and Frankfurt, but on both matches, they could have finished with 5 goals behind the opponent. Same against Leverkusen, where they lost “only” 0-1, but it could have been much more. It’s hard to predict how will Freiburg enter this match, as they are really out of form, but I believe Gladbach will press and attack from the beginning of the match. They are a better side, they have some individuals Freiburg can only dream about, and if nothing else, than individual superiority, should be the reason that Gladbach leaves the Schwarzwald-Stadion with all three points. I’m not sure about Freiburg’s European interest as I think they don’t have a squad that would be capable of playing equivalently on more fronts, and I think they will be completely satisfied with the mid-table finish. One interesting information about Freiburg: “In the last 10 matches, they have averaged only 1 xGF per game! Counting only the matches after the break, this number dropped to 0,7 xGF per game! And yes, they scored 3-times in Frankfurt…
  11. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from DrO in Bundesliga I & II Predictions > May 29th - Jun 1st   
    Köln v Leipzig
    Betting suggestion: 
    Leipzig -1 @1,92 Pinnacle Leipzig & over 2,5 goals @1,81 Pinnacle Short preview:  Tonight at 20:30 on RheinEnergieStadion we will see the last match of the 29th round of Bundesliga, where will 11th placed Köln host 5th Leipzig. Hosts are still in a miserable form since the Bundesliga returned, as they won only two points in three matches. That might not be as bad as it sounds when you know the names of their opponents - Mainz, Fortuna, and Hoffenheim. Of course, they lost against Hoffenheim, but they were surely counting on more points from the first two matches. On the other side, we have Leipzig that missed the chance of jumping up to the second Dortmund in the last round - they failed against Hertha (2-2), and now they are sitting on the edge of the places that lead to the Champions League. As said yesterday for Gladbach, there is no place for mistakes as every single lost point will count almost double in the last matches. Both, Gladbach and Leverkusen are one point in front of Leipzig at the moment, so there will be nothing else than 3 points in their heads. Players of Köln can be calm for now, as they are 7 points ahead of the 18th Fortuna Düsseldorf, but I am not even counting on that too much here, as we could easily understand it in the way that there will be more pressure on shoulders of Leipzig and they won't be able to perform at their best, but Leipzig wants to become one of the teams that will standardly participate in Champions League and they definitely possess the quality to do so. Therefore, my main reason why I am suggesting to be on the side of "Red Bulls" here is not just because they simply must win this match, but also because they have much more quality in the team. As usual, they still have some problems with injuries, but their squad is gigantic. Nagelsmann can rotate among a high number of quality players they can adapt to different styles of football and I believe that their last match against Hertha simply wasn't their best day and that they will perform at the much higher level tonight against Köln. Bulls will be without red-carded Halstenberg who has let the team down against Hertha and still injured Ampadu, Konate and Poulsen. Nagelsmann was happy to get Kampl back in the first two matches "post-corona" but it looks like the midfielder picked up another injury and is doubtful for the match. Köln on the other hand, will miss suspended Bornauw, and injured Czichos. Other options are also Leipzig to score in both halves, priced around 2,20, or Leipzig team totals over 2 @1,74.
  12. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Bundesliga I & II Predictions > May 29th - Jun 1st   
    Borussia Mönchengladbach v Union Berlin
    Betting suggestions: 
    Gladbach team totals over 2 @2,07 Pinnacle Gladbach -1 @1,91 Pinnacle Short preview: The first Sunday’s match in the 29th round of Bundesliga will be played on Borussia-Park, where currently 5th placed Gladbach will host 13th Union Berlin. Gladbach started this season really good, but thanks to the major problems of all solid teams in Bundesliga (except Bayern) – inconsistency, they dropped down and right now they are holding the fifth place on the league table, with 11 points more than 6th Wolfsburg and in this round, they will have a chance to even extend the gap with “wolves”, as they lost against Frankfurt with 1-2. Union Berlin finally got a first point in the “post-corona” period as they played 1-1 against Mainz in the last round. Gladbach drew as well, but away at Werder who started showing some signs of being alive, especially after today’s win over Schalke. Unfortunately for the home manager, Gladbach is still without Embolo and Zakaria, but they still have Plea, Thuram, and I think that at least offensively, they shouldn’t have too many problems with breaking the defense of Union Berlin, which conceded 4 goals two rounds ago on the Berlin derby against Hertha. Gladbach is not only in a position to make a gap with Wolfsburg as mentioned before but also to jump over Leipzig on 4th, and equalize with Bayer Leverkusen on the league table. As it seems, Bayern added a new trophy to their name, but I believe we will be part of one hell of a race between Dortmund, Leverkusen, Leipzig, and Gladbach, who will be fighting for the Champions League spots. On the paper, Gladbach probably is the weakest team, but that’s just another reason why they have to win matches like this one is, especially regarding the situation. Union with only 4 points above Fortuna, is surely feeling some pressure as the 18th place leads to qualifiers to avoid relegation. I am not even doubtful about the fact, that they are coming in Gladbach to try to steal some points, but a question is what can their manager Fischer really change. With two defeats and one draw against poor Mainz at home, it seems that his boys didn’t come back in the best shape and I can not imagine them really well enough defensively, to hold Gladbach away. After a solid win over Frankfurt in the first match, Gladbach failed in the last two so with 6 rounds until the end of the season, and given the situation, there is definitely not the time to fail against teams like Union. Other options are also Gladbach ht/ft, priced around 2,20, or Gladbach and that they score more than 1,5 goals
  13. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Bundesliga I & II Predictions > May 29th - Jun 1st   
    Hertha Berlin v Augsburg
    Betting suggestion: 
    Hertha -0,5 @1,94 Pinnacle Augsburg team totals under 1 @1,99 Pinnacle Short preview: We could say that Hertha deserved “at least 2 points” in Leipzig as they played a very decent match. What surprised me the most was the performance of Boyata and Torunarigha, who were synchronized through the whole match against a very strong opponent. Leipzig played the solid first half, but even if they succeeded to create some gaps, they suffered in the final third. Someone might say “what are you talking, they conceded two goals…” Well, everyone who has seen the match knows what I’m talking about. The first goal came from the set-piece, while the second simply came as a gift from Jarstein. The key question for today’s match is – will Labbadia succeed to motivate his team to be eager to get 3 points as much as they were in Leipzig? Augsburg definitely isn’t an as attractive team as Leipzig, and at the moment they are only 4 points away from the 18th spot which leads to relegation qualifiers. Hertha didn’t start the season at their best, but it looks that the shock therapy with Labbadia worked well and with 7 points in the “post-corona” period, they are one of the most in-form teams in Bundesliga. With all the tall, physical players, with individuals like Cunha, veteran Ibisević, still, a guy who has to prove himself, Piatek, they have plenty of fire-weapons and they should score at least once here. On the other side, with the defensive performance in Leipzig, and obviously both results from first two matches – 4-0, 0-3, they convinced me but I suggest to take the safer option with Augsburg total under 1, which means the pick will be voided in case of exactly one goal scored by the away side. Of course, for those who like to chase higher odds, Hertha win to nil is priced at 3,70!
     
     
    Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt
    Betting suggestion: 
    both teams to score & over 2,5 @1,961 Pinnacle Short preview: To be honest, firstly I had Wolfsburg to win here, but analyzing the match a bit more, I almost went to Frankfurt team totals over 1, but as the price is pretty low (1,74), I decided to simply suggest goals in this one. Wolfsburg ate plenty of staked units last time when they won away at Leverkusen, but even though they scored 4 times, I can not see them as a team to who I would “blindly” believe and follow to snap home wins, especially not against tricky opponents like Eintracht. They are a team that plays extremely offensive and the fact that they fired 35 shots against Freiburg in a very interesting match which finished with 3-3. Looking at stats, I believe no one can explain how that happened. As we know, the ball is rounded and everything can happen in football. Well, I wouldn’t be so surprised to see Eintracht snapping a point from Wolfsburg, but I would be surprised to see Wolfsburg keeping a clean sheet here. Frankfurt is only 2 points away from the 18th position, but I can not really imagine them playing anyhow different than they do – offensively. In my opinion, they are one of those teams who stayed in European competitions pretty long, and therefore they suffered in the league. We’ve seen similar things with Strasbourg and especially Rennes in Ligue 1. They don’t deserve to be that low on the league table, and I believe things will get better for them until the end of the season.
  14. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Bundesliga I & II Predictions > May 26th - 28th   
    Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich
    Betting suggestion: 
    Borussia Dortmund +0,75 @1,884 Pinnacle Short preview: I started talking about Der Klassiker already in the last round, where especially Dortmund had a tough task to do when they faced Wolfsburg away and they finished their job perfectly. Unfortunately for them, Bayern extended the gap right after by beating Eintracht with 5-2, therefore the situation hasn't really changed as Dortmund have to do everything not to lose this derby. Unfortunately, they won't be able to count on the great support from the standings which would definitely make the "life heavier" for the opponent. Good news for BVB is that Hans-Dieter Flick can not count on Thiago Alcantara who is without a single doubt the most creative player in their team. Anyways, Thiago hasn't participated in the last match against Frankfurt either, and Bayern won with 5-2 and looked like if they play on 50%. That might sound like they are monstrous but it can also sound like they didn't really reach the highest level, or let's say performed as good as they can. Will they perform at their maximum today? If they will, I believe they will win this match, but at the same time, I have to point out that BVB played some very mature football in the last two matches. I expect Bayern to dominate and create a bit more chances, but for me this match simply looks match more equalized than the bookies are showing. If the home side scores first, I think Bavarians will find themselves in a very tough position as they will be forced to play a bit less cautious and that would be a perfect situation for BVB as they are simply dreadful on counters. Once again, I do believe Bayern is the better side at the moment, that they have simply more quality in the squad, but odds are in my opinion favorizing them too much, therefore the Asian handicap +0,75 which means we lose only half of the stake if Bayern wins with 1 goal difference represents value to me.
     
    BVB will miss Zagadou, Schulz and Reus.
    Bayern will miss Süle, Thiago, Tolisso, Coutinho.
  15. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Bundesliga I & II Predictions > May 26th - 28th   
    Bayer Leverkusen v Wolfsburg
    Betting suggestion:  
    Leverkusen -0,5 @1,77 Pinnacle over 2,5 & both teams to score @1,95 Pinnacle Short preview: If we take a look at the league table, we can notice those two teams really close to each other (4th vs 6th), but with 14 points gap, it's clearly visible that Leverkusen have a much better season than Wolfsburg. The same goes for the form after the lockdown, as Leverkusen won both matches with 7-2 goal difference, while VfL won once and lost once. They won away at Augsburg, while they lost again Dortmund last week. As I watched the match, I have to say that they started the match with too much respect and everything looked much better in the second half when they prepared some chances, but Dortmund was simply better and I expect nothing different this time when they will be hosted by probably the best "most in-form" team in Bundesliga at the moment. Leverkusen, especially with Kai Havertz on fire looks very prolific. At home, they simply have to get the job done. Wolfsburg will try to get their chances in their "physical" way, with strong, tall strikers like Weghorst and Ginczek, but with the performance, they showed against they didn't convince me and I think it won't be enough for current Leverkusen. Moreover they added some "missing players" on the list with Mehmedi and Klaus being unavailable for the manager. They might score as a product of a set-piece situation or simply an in-play cross, but I see Leverkusen scoring at least one more.
     
    Leverkusen will miss Bender, Tah, Volland.
    Wolfsburg is still without Gerhardt, William, Otavio, Mehmedi, Guilavogui, Karamoko, Camacho and Klaus. 
  16. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Bundesliga I & II Predictions > Jan 24th - 30th   
    Union Berlin v Augsburg
    Betting suggestion: 
    Augsburg +0,5 @1,81 Pinnacle Short preview: We have already been there, backing Augbusrg away from home and I suggest doing it once again. In the last round of Bundesliga, Augsburg had Borussia Dortmund on the knees, but then “Halland happened” and BVB ended winning 3-5. One round earlier they were defeated in Leipzig, but that just shows us that they had two very difficult opponents to play against. Before those two matches, they were unbeaten for 5 rounds and against Union they can, in my opinion, re-start the unbeaten period once again. While Iago is away with Brazil, the coach Martin Schmidt will be able to count on midfielder Löwen who joined from Hertha, and striker Finnbogasson and defender Lichtsteiner who are fit after being out due to injuries. Union Berlin is coming in this match after three losses in a row. First, they lost again Hoffenheim at home (0-2), and then against poor Dusseldorf away (2-1) and Leipzig with the same result as Augsburg. Anyways, I can not see why are bookies favorizing the home side that much and it seems much more like 50/50 clash to me. Therefore I see value on the away side.
  17. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Premier League Predictions > Jan 10th - 12th   
    Wolverhampton v Newcastle
    Betting suggestion: 
    Wolverhampton -1 @1,85 Pinnacle Short preview:  Here I am not going that much on Wolves like I am going against Newcastle. There is a complete mess with injuries in their team as they are without Manquillo, Shelvey, Schar, Saint-Maximin, Lascelles, Colback, while defenders Lewis and Hanley are doubtful due to illness. Wolverhampton on the other side is without Jota and Boly but without any other problems. After the huge win over Man City, Wolverhampton failed to win in three consecutive matches - losing against Liverpool and Watford and playing a goalless draw with Manchester United in the FA Cup. Newcastle on the other side lost last three Premier League matches (Man United, Everton, Leicester City) with goal difference 9-2 and played 1-1 in FA Cup against the 18th placed team of the third league - Rochdale. All, after all, the advantage of the home pitch, the advantage of the simply better situation with injuries, plus the fact that Wolverhampton simply is the side which posses more quality, I expect all three points to stay at the Molineux Stadium.
     
    Tottenham v Liverpool
    Betting suggestion:
    Liverpool -0.5 @1,74 Pinnacle Liverpool -1 @2,28 Pinnacle Short preview: Primary selection is to take the Reds with the straight win, but as the odds dropped even under 1,7 at some bookmakers, I suggest to simply go with the -1 handicap. At the moment, Spurs have simply too many problems as Mourinho can not count on the first goalkeeper Lloris, defensive midfielders Sissoko and Ndombele,  defender Ben Davies and the captain and by far the most important player in attack Harry Kane who will be most likely out until early April. Moreover, Rose and Winks aren't fully fit. Liverpool is coming without some players as well, but from the strongest 11, they miss only Fabinho. I suppose he will include Oxlade Chamberlain in the first lineup, which means they will have another prolific midfielder and Tottenham will really need to be at their best to take something out of this match. In the last five matches, Liverpool have always scored at least two goals and I think nothing will really change today.
     
    Leicester v Southampton
    Betting suggestion:
    Leicester -0,5 @1,68 Pinnacle Short preview: There were some questions over the injury status of Vardy and Maddison but as it looks, both will start today's match against Southampton. The Saints are in an exceptional form lately, as they are unbeaten for 5 consecutive matches. They've beaten Aston Villa and Chelsea away, and Tottenham and Huddersfield at home, while they shared points with Crystal Palace after 1-1 draw at home. Anyways, today's match will be completely different as they will face a very tough opponent, a team who is well deservedly sitting on the second place of Premier League, playing attractive football, scoring plenty of goals and defending pretty decently this season. With 46 goals scored and 19 goals conceded, they have 3rd best attack and 2nd best defense of the league. With last 5 matches, they ruin their run a bit, as they lost twice and play draw once, but defeats were against Liverpool and Manchester City, while the important thing is that they have returned back to the "winning roads" and won against West Ham and Newcastle - both away. The draw against Aston Villa could have finished completely different as Leicester was by far the better opponent in the match, but that's football. Today against Southampton I don't expect an easy match for The Foxes, but I do expect them to win it. Solid options for those for who 1,68 isn't high enough are also with Leicester and under 3,5 or  4,5 goals.
  18. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Bundesliga I & II Predictions > Dec 17th - 22nd   
    Dortmund v Leipzig
    Betting suggestion:  
    over 3,25 @1,869 Pinnacle both teams to score & over 2,5 goals @1,70 Pinnacle Short preview: Without any doubt, the most interesting match tonight. Clash of current league leaders of Leipzig who will be hosted on Signal-Iduna-Park  by Borussia Dortmund. Recent results of both teams Dortmund: 4-0L, 3-3, 1-2W, 5-0W, 0-4W and Leipzig: 2-2, 2-3W, 3-1W, 2-2, 0-3W are clearly pointing on over here. Where it gets tricky from the statistical point of view is the fact that Leipzig has the 2nd best defense in the league with only 16 goals conceded in 15 rounds. Dortmund on the other hand only 3 more, which means neither of those two sides is conceding a lot, but as mentioned yesterday for the Cagliari-Lazio match – for both sides we can firstly stress out their offensive strength as they scored 37 and 42 goals so far in the competition.  Favre will miss Witsel, Delaney, and Schmelzer, while Nagelsmann is still without defenders Orban and Konate, and midfielder Kampl who is once again on the injury list. Honestly, I think that Bulls are coming into this match in a slightly better form, and even though they miss their captain Orban, the defensive pair Upamecano-Klostermann works pretty fine. Their front part, with Werner, Sabitzer, Forsberg, and Poulsen looks really scary (first three mentioned, scored 26 goals! However I turn this match, I think both teams are strong enough to take advantage of the opponent’s weaknesses and I believe we will see goals here… Looking for a winner here, I might even try with direct Leipzig win with odds above 3,25.
     
     
    Augsburg v Fortuna Dusseldorf
    Betting suggestion: 
    Augsburg -0.5 @1,87 Pinnacle Short preview: The away side is coming with some worries as the top goal scorer Hennings is doubtful for the match. Besides him, they won’t be able to count on the standard defender Bodzek, while Karaman, Suttner, and Stöger are on the injury list as well. Augsburg on the other side is still without Finnbogason, but the coach Schmidt can still count on all players who participated in the last 5 matches, where Augsburg have beaten Paderborn and Hoffenheim away, Herta and Mainz at home and played 1-1 draw in Köln. The completely different atmosphere is in the locker room of Fortuna, who slipped to the 16th spot with recent defeats against Dortmund (5-0), and Leipzig (0-3). Truth is they played against some top sides lately, but even otherwise they lost 5 of 8 away matches so far. I think that it won’t be an easy match for Augsburg, but with the form they’re holding at the moment, I think that they will simply do what will be needed to book another three points.
  19. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from craigh in Bundesliga I & II Predictions > Dec 17th - 22nd   
    Dortmund v Leipzig
    Betting suggestion:  
    over 3,25 @1,869 Pinnacle both teams to score & over 2,5 goals @1,70 Pinnacle Short preview: Without any doubt, the most interesting match tonight. Clash of current league leaders of Leipzig who will be hosted on Signal-Iduna-Park  by Borussia Dortmund. Recent results of both teams Dortmund: 4-0L, 3-3, 1-2W, 5-0W, 0-4W and Leipzig: 2-2, 2-3W, 3-1W, 2-2, 0-3W are clearly pointing on over here. Where it gets tricky from the statistical point of view is the fact that Leipzig has the 2nd best defense in the league with only 16 goals conceded in 15 rounds. Dortmund on the other hand only 3 more, which means neither of those two sides is conceding a lot, but as mentioned yesterday for the Cagliari-Lazio match – for both sides we can firstly stress out their offensive strength as they scored 37 and 42 goals so far in the competition.  Favre will miss Witsel, Delaney, and Schmelzer, while Nagelsmann is still without defenders Orban and Konate, and midfielder Kampl who is once again on the injury list. Honestly, I think that Bulls are coming into this match in a slightly better form, and even though they miss their captain Orban, the defensive pair Upamecano-Klostermann works pretty fine. Their front part, with Werner, Sabitzer, Forsberg, and Poulsen looks really scary (first three mentioned, scored 26 goals! However I turn this match, I think both teams are strong enough to take advantage of the opponent’s weaknesses and I believe we will see goals here… Looking for a winner here, I might even try with direct Leipzig win with odds above 3,25.
     
     
    Augsburg v Fortuna Dusseldorf
    Betting suggestion: 
    Augsburg -0.5 @1,87 Pinnacle Short preview: The away side is coming with some worries as the top goal scorer Hennings is doubtful for the match. Besides him, they won’t be able to count on the standard defender Bodzek, while Karaman, Suttner, and Stöger are on the injury list as well. Augsburg on the other side is still without Finnbogason, but the coach Schmidt can still count on all players who participated in the last 5 matches, where Augsburg have beaten Paderborn and Hoffenheim away, Herta and Mainz at home and played 1-1 draw in Köln. The completely different atmosphere is in the locker room of Fortuna, who slipped to the 16th spot with recent defeats against Dortmund (5-0), and Leipzig (0-3). Truth is they played against some top sides lately, but even otherwise they lost 5 of 8 away matches so far. I think that it won’t be an easy match for Augsburg, but with the form they’re holding at the moment, I think that they will simply do what will be needed to book another three points.
  20. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Champions League Predictions > Dec 10th & 11th   
    Lyon v Leipzig
    Betting suggestion: 
    both teams to score & over 2,5 @1,80 Pinnacle Short preview: As you probably know, I simply love to take handicaps on Leipzig in Bundesliga, as they really play impressive football, especially up-front. With 30 points and by far the best goal difference in Bundesliga, they are currently only a point behind Gladbach, and I still see them as the biggest “challenger” for Bayern than anyone Gladbach and BVB for example. Their tonight’s opponent won their last match on Friday really comfortably and had a day more to prepare for this match. Konate and Orban are still out, which means the defensive line of “bulls” aren’t as strong as it could be. Garcia is missing both fullbacks, Kone and Dubois, as well, so the main problems of both managers regarding injuries are in defense, which is a “positive” fact to our pick. Both teams are currently at 7 points in the group, therefore the importance of this match is enormous. Logical thinking would be, so they will try to tighten up in defense and play a bit more carefully than usual. Well, both teams conceded 16 goals in their domestic leagues, they both conceded 6 in 5 rounds of Champions League, and on the other hand, they scored 28 and 39 in domestic leagues … What I’m trying to say is, that the main strength of these two is up-front. Both managers have some great forwards in their hands and I simply think that the team who will win tonight, will have to score at least 2…
     
    Ajax v Valencia
    Betting suggestion: 
    both teams to score & over 2,5 @1,78 Pinnacle Short preview: the same pick once again, but this time mainly because Valencia will have to push for the win in Amsterdam, and I consider both teams pretty shaky at the back, and once again pretty decent offensively. The first goalie of Ajax, Onana has some problems but will probably start the match.  Out are Neres and Promes, which means ten Hag might start with the veteran Huntelaar as number 9. With the last two wins in La Liga against Villarreal and Levante, Valencia players have raised the atmosphere in the locker room a bit and they are definitely going in Amsterdam without any fear. Lille is out, therefore Chelsea should get an easy win, which means they will be at 11 points, while Ajax and Valencia will fight for the 2nd ticket in knockout phases. A draw would be enough for Ajax and that’s why I expect Valencia to start offensively from the very beginning. With all the experiences Ajax possesses in Champions League, I literally have no doubts they will create dozens of chances in counters. Unfortunately, ten Hag can not count on pacey Promes and Neres, but still, with creativity level of van den Beek, Tadić, Ziyech, … they have more than enough to harm the opponent. Celades will miss some players as well – Gomez, Cillesen, Cheryshev, Kondogbia, Guedes, Sobrino are out due to injuries, while the center back Garay will miss due to suspension.
  21. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Premier League Predictions > Dec 3rd - 5th   
    Arsenal v Brighton
    Betting suggestion: Arsenal -1 @1,98 Pinnacle
    Short preview: Will Arsenal beat Brighton with more than a goal difference? Well, I believe they will win the match so, in "worst-case", this bet will be returned. The main reason why I am suggesting the home side here is, of course, the fact, that Gunners decided to sack Unai Emery who looks like or let's say obviously didn't really get along not with the squad, not with the fans. Problems of this squad are definitely in defensive lines, where they can not find the working formula, conceding goals against every single opponent without bigger problems. Last time they didn't concede was on the 6th of October when they won against Bournemouth with 1-0. Since then, they conceded 19 goals in 9 matches in all competitions, therefore it's not a surprise that they won only once in those 9 matches. An interim manager or Arsenal is the clubs legend Ljungberg, who's debut on Emirates might be something special. Honestly, I expect home fans to represent huge support to the team, as they are really in need of positive things start happening to their club. Among possibilities for the new coach is Viera, so another clubs legend, but that isn't even that important right now. The main thing is that all players will have a new chance of showing their best and convincing the new manager to get the place in the first eleven. Quality, especially offensively in this club definitely isn't a question, the question is how to use them in the way to get the best out of them. Emery obviously failed, and I'd say nothing can change in that short period of time, but in this case, I have a feeling that there were soo many "hard feelings", argues, bad relations that some players were with heads far from where they were supposed to be. Somehow relaxed Arsenal, with the "new" spirit in their dressing room and in front of probably the new manager coming in next days, should be motivated enough to beat the poor side of Brighton whose performances aren't as bad as it looks lately, but I simply think that they are coming on Emirates Stadium at the wrong time.
  22. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from ivanhoe in Premier League Predictions > Dec 3rd - 5th   
    Arsenal v Brighton
    Betting suggestion: Arsenal -1 @1,98 Pinnacle
    Short preview: Will Arsenal beat Brighton with more than a goal difference? Well, I believe they will win the match so, in "worst-case", this bet will be returned. The main reason why I am suggesting the home side here is, of course, the fact, that Gunners decided to sack Unai Emery who looks like or let's say obviously didn't really get along not with the squad, not with the fans. Problems of this squad are definitely in defensive lines, where they can not find the working formula, conceding goals against every single opponent without bigger problems. Last time they didn't concede was on the 6th of October when they won against Bournemouth with 1-0. Since then, they conceded 19 goals in 9 matches in all competitions, therefore it's not a surprise that they won only once in those 9 matches. An interim manager or Arsenal is the clubs legend Ljungberg, who's debut on Emirates might be something special. Honestly, I expect home fans to represent huge support to the team, as they are really in need of positive things start happening to their club. Among possibilities for the new coach is Viera, so another clubs legend, but that isn't even that important right now. The main thing is that all players will have a new chance of showing their best and convincing the new manager to get the place in the first eleven. Quality, especially offensively in this club definitely isn't a question, the question is how to use them in the way to get the best out of them. Emery obviously failed, and I'd say nothing can change in that short period of time, but in this case, I have a feeling that there were soo many "hard feelings", argues, bad relations that some players were with heads far from where they were supposed to be. Somehow relaxed Arsenal, with the "new" spirit in their dressing room and in front of probably the new manager coming in next days, should be motivated enough to beat the poor side of Brighton whose performances aren't as bad as it looks lately, but I simply think that they are coming on Emirates Stadium at the wrong time.
  23. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Premier League Predictions > Nov 30th & Dec 1st   
    Chelsea v West Ham
    Betting suggestion:
    Chelsea -1,5 @1,80 Pinnacle Short preview: The only problem I see for the home side is the recent injury of young prolific striker Abraham, but I think nothing will really change if Lampard puts Belgium striker Batshuayi in, between Pulišić and Willian. From what I’ve seen from Chelsea last week against Manchester City, I have to say I was enormously surprised. It’s obvious that Frank Lampard will be another big coach, transformed from the great player and I am looking forward to seeing how will he transform his football knowledge and ideas onto his players. He has pretty much young squad, a group eager to learn, eager to work and what’s most important, who respects their coach. I won’t even compare the match of West Ham against Tottenham, because they really played catastrophically and I don’t know how they succeeded to bounce back after being already 3-0 down. Well, I expect Chelsea to be dominant, to create many more chances, and to win this match with more than a goal difference. West Ham will miss suspended defender Issa Diop, which is yet another problem for the side who’s in very poor form – won only 1 point in the last 5 matches, against Sheffield United at home.
     
    Liverpool v Brighton
    Betting suggestion: 
    Liverpool -1,5 @1,74 Pinnacle Short preview: Is Liverpool slowly letting the foot from the gas pedal? Well, let’s be honest. You can not simply trash every single opponent with 4-5 goals difference in Premier League, especially when they defend soo deep. Brighton will come on Anfield with super defensive tactics, but I think that offensively, they simply don’t have what’s needed to surprise Liverpool. Reds will miss Fabinho who is their very important player who’s doing great work especially defensively, but I think Brighton will try more with set-pieces and long balls, and less with counters. Last two matches, Brighton lost 3-1 and 0-2 against Manchester United and Leicester, both teams against who you normally are a bit more “fired-up”. Liverpool and Manchester City are teams, against who teams as Brighton are even more motivated but I don’t believe that can be enough to surprise the team, who are having 8 points advantage in a tough Premier League.
  24. Like
    Pep004 got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Champions League Predictions > Nov 26th & 27th   
    Juventus v Atletico Madrid
    Betting suggestion: 
    Juventus -0,25 @2,02 Pinnacle Short preview: I expected to see odds for -0,25 handicap a bit lower. AH -0,25 means, we will get half of our stake returned if the match finishes with the draw. It’s true that Sarri has Douglas Costa, Alex Sandro, Chiellini, Rabiot out injured, and that de Ligt, Ronaldo and Bernareschi are all doubtful, but they still have a very good team, and what is even more important for Champions League, very experienced team. Cristiano is listed doubtful, but with his post on twitter yesterday – I am back, and pictures from the training session, I believe he “announced” himself in the first line-up tonight. Juve is already 3 points in front of second-placed Atletico so with three points they will “book” the first place in the group. They are in great form and even when they don’t play at their best, they still win the match, which only says a lot about their mentality. Except against Atalanta in the last round (1-3), they won 8 of their last 9 matches with only a goal difference, and I expect to see something similar tonight. Atletico isn’t at their best, playing only 1-1 against Granada in La Liga last round. Moreover, in the last 5 matches, they have 3 draws, 1 win, and 1 defeat. They won against a very poor side of Espanyol at home and lost away in Leverkusen (2-1). Still, they are in a solid position in Champions League, as they are second with 7 points and 4 points advantage and playing at home against Lokomotiv Moscow in the last round of the group stage. Therefore they still have everything in their hands, and they won’t be under pressure tonight. Anyways, the truth is that with beating Juve today on Allianz Stadium in Torino, they will have chances of taking the first spot in the group,… But still, comparing these two sides at the moment, I see Juventus in a much better state, Ramsey is back, Dybala raising his form, Ronaldo coming back,… For me, odds above 1,90 on -0,25 represents decent value.
     
    Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk
    Betting suggestion:  
    Manchester City 1st half -1 @2,02 Pinnacle  Manchester City -2,5 @2,15 Pinnacle Short preview: The thing which bothers me a bit is that the defensive line of Manchester City is changing a lot, due to injuries of course. The key player of backline Aymeric Laporte is still absent, and Guardiola is usually putting Fernandinho in pair with Stones/Otamendi, or even the second defensive midfielder Rodri. Uncertain is also who will play in offensive part, as Bernardo was forced to skip the match against Chelsea (accused of racism post on twitter, as he made a joke with his best friend Mendy), and as Mahrez is performing better and better. With Silva picking up a slight injury, it might even happen that Bernardo will be positioned in a bit deeper role, why Mahrez will keep his spot on the right-wing. The central striker will be Jesus, as Kun Aguero is out injured. While Man City is currently 3rd in Premier League, Shakhtar is very comfortable in the first place of the Ukranian Premier League, with 13 points advantage and goal difference +37. With 5 points in the group, they still have chances of qualifying and will play against Atalanta at home in the last round, but it will be very tough to take points from Etihad, especially with so many problems as they will have today. Luis Castro will miss suspended Marlos, while Taison is injured. Each scored 6 goals in 11 matches so far and are irreplaceable figures of this team. When it comes to “ball-carrying”, Taison has the competition high with 1811 meters (1049 of these, upwards on the field)!  Manchester City and Shakhtar played against each other several times in past years and Citizens have won 4 of 5 last matches, all of them with the clean sheet. Guardiola is always speaking very highly about the Ukranian league, how full of talents it is, so I expect them being fully prepared for this match, which as the manager said, is crucial, as he wants to go in Zagreb without any pressure. With the win over Chelsea, City have shown a bit more of maturity, as they scored in a moment when they weren’t performing as they should. Winning matches like this are very important for the morale and I believe we won’t see them failing that soon, therefore I expect a comfortable victory.
     
    Tottenham v Olympiacos
    Betting suggestion:  
    Tottenham 1st half -0,5 @1,81 Pinnacle Tottenham -1,5 @1,99 Pinnacle Tottenham ht/ft @1,91 Short preview: After several ups and downs, and some mini-clashes inside the locker room, Spurs have decided to change the coach and Pochettino was replaced by Mourinho. The Portuguese coach has already shown an impact on the team, which will (not surprisingly) play more direct, without “play out of the back” style, and to be honest, I think that Mourinho got a very interesting team in his hands, regarding the way of how he wants to play. He has lots of physicality in players like N’Dombele, Dier, Sissoko, Wanyama, plenty of pace and individual quality in Son, Lucas, physical, pacy fullbacks, and plenty other quality individuals like Alli, Lamela, Eriksen and we should not forget the “leader” Kane,… Son has already told the press that the football they were used to play will change, but that it can help the group on the mutual road to win trophies. Mourinho, even though he had some unsuccessful spells lately is definitely a manager who can do something with this group and in my opinion, it will be something big, or nothing at all – I want to say that I don’t expect some kind of “average result”. Today’s opponent Olympiacos is at the bottom of the group, they’ve won only 1 point in 4 matches, and they are a terrible away team – lost with Crvena Zvezda 3-1 and Bayern 2-0. I’m sure they will position really deep on the pitch but Tottenham have plenty of answers on this kind of tactic… What bothers Spurs so far is how to calmly finish the “already won” match, and that’s why my favorite pick here is for them to win the first half. I’m sure they will push with force from the first minute and try to make the difference early in the game. They are a way better side, they have plenty of experiences with Champions league, they have a very experienced manager I expect nothing less, than a big win of their side.
     
    Atalanta v Dinamo Zagreb
    Betting suggestion: 
    both teams to score & over 2,5 goals @1,943 Pinnacle Short preview: Even though Italians are with only 1 point sitting at the bottom of the group C, where Manchester City will most likely take the first points as they have 5 points advantage already, they still have some theoretical chances of qualifying … They have to win their last two matches and count on Manchester City to do their part of the job. This match is coming after a tough clash with Juventus, which they lost 3-1, but they had plenty of chances to make it 2-0, so with a little bit of luck, everything might be finished differently. They are a team that is trying to develop their game, who is playing with their style, regardless of the opponent is Man City or Dinamo. Of course, experiences are hardly on the side of Croatians, as it is the first time in history Atalanta is competing in this elite competition, but after a catastrophic performance in Zagreb, where they lost with 4-0, I expect them being eager to revenge this result, where yes, Dinamo played well, but it was also one of those games, where everything works for one, and nothing for the other side. Dinamo is relaxed in the first position of 1. HNL, but they can feel their chances of qualifying and they will be under a bit of pressure tonight. Both sides are great offensively, while especially Atalanta isn’t too good behind, as they are way too much focused on attack. Comparing with the match against Juventus, Gasparini will be able to count on Muriel, Malinovskiy, and Iličić, therefore three very important players of his side. Therefore I see a bunch of value in odds on over with the addition of both teams to score, which is my main suggestion for this match.
  25. Like
    Pep004 reacted to StevieDay1983 in Champions League Predictions > Nov 26th & 27th   
    Tottenham vs Olympiakos
    The new managerial reign of Jose Mourinho at Tottenham continues with his first foray in the Champions League with his new side when they play Olympiakos in an 8pm GMT kick-off at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium tonight. It's the penultimate round of matches in Group B and who qualifies for the last 16 from this group could well be decided in tonight's action.
    Tottenham are currently in 2nd place in this group on 7 points. Bayern Munich sit top of the group on 12 points. The Germans have already guaranteed their place in the knockout stage but will want to ensure they finish as group winners by beating 3rd placed Red Star Belgrade. If Tottenham win they will seal their place in the next round. Spurs threw away a two goal lead to draw 2-2 away against Olympiakos when they last met so this could be a tricky game. However, in Mourinho, they have a manager that has won this competition twice with Porto and Inter Milan.
    Olympiakos must win to keep their qualification hopes alive. Head coach Pedro Martins has seen his team only manage to pick up a single point so far and that came in the home draw against Tottenham. A win would put the pressure on Tottenham with the Greek side then possessing a better head-to-head record knowing Tottenham would possibly have to go to Bayern Munich and get something. Olympiakos have only played Tottenham away once in European competition. That ended in a 4-0 loss in the UEFA Cup back in 1972. They have also only won 1 of their 14 away games against English sides in European competition.
    I'm going to have to put my faith in Mourinho's experience as a born Champions League winner for this game. Tottenham looked revitalised against West Ham. It'll take time for Mourinho to really impose his style of play but it seems like it could be a good match for the club. I've not felt Olympiakos have a lot to offer in this group and I think Tottenham could win this with a clean sheet and by a couple of goals at least.
    Tottenham HT/FT @ 1.95 with Coral
    Tottenham -1 @ 1.87 with Boylesports
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