DrO

First of all, you weren't banned, you were prevented from posting for one day. Secondly, you weren't "banned" because you posted your Bet365 accas without any words, but because you then followed it up by swearing when one of your picks lost. There's quite a bit of tolerance on here and you most certainly wouldn't be banned for posting picks, even though I'm sure that everyone on here would love if they had some sort of an explanation/reasoning. Keep things civil and nobody will ban you, share your views and everyone will appreciate your efforts.

Champions League is finally back next week. In this stage I like betting on qualification. There are two ties in which I find some value, RM-Napoli and City-Monaco. Odds on Napoli to qualify are around 4 which implies a 25% to progress to the next round. But is this tie actually that inclined to RM? I think bookies constantly overrate RM. A couple of weeks ago they were knocked out of the spanish cup by Celta at odds of over 5. There are several matches RM have won this season with a late goal without even dominating the game. They also struggle to keep a clean sheet with avoiding to concede a goal in just 8 matches during this season. At home in CL they haven't looked great, they beat Sporting 2-1 with two late goals then they beat 5-1 LEGIA (?) and they drew against Dortmund 2-2. Away they drew 2-2 against Dortmund, 3-3 against Legia!!, and beat Sporting 2-1 with again a late goal. Bale won't play the first leg. On the other hand, Napoli haven't lost in the last 17 games with their last defeat coming against Juventus. They are second in Serie A which IMO is the best they can reach (Juve too strong for Italy).  In champions league they won their group which tbh was quite average. They didn't lose playing away and they scored in all those matches. They are the highest scoring team in Serie A thanks to the likes of Mertens Callejon Insigne Hamsik. I think Madrid are favourites to qualify but I wouldn't give Napoli just a 25% chance of progressing, to me this is a 65-60/35-40 tie.
The other tie I like is Monaco City. The english team looked a bit shaky after a strong start of the season but it seems they've gained a bit of momentum with the recent results. However they  don't convince me yet. They struggle to keep clean sheets in the league having just kept one CS in their last 11 home games. Monaco on the other hand are playing excellent this season, they are destroying every team in France and they are scoring for fun. If I'm not wrong they are the highest scoring team in the main european leagues. True is that french teams are really poor with the exception of PSG. Currently they are on top of Ligue 1 and there's some difference between the average french team and the average english team but Monaco are IMO the best team in France. They won their group beating Tottenham home and away and just losing the last match when they were already qualified as group winners. Odds on their qualification are around 3.3 and this implies a 30% of chances to progress to the quarter finals.  Personally, I think there's value on Monaco, I really rate them high and I think this tie is tigher than what the odds suggest. To me it's almost a 50-50 or maybe 55-45 with the edge going to city but I would never give Monaco just a 30% of chances.
If there are no major injuries in Monaco and Napoli, I'll be staking normally 2 units on Napoli at 4 and 2.5 on Monaco at 3.3.

From Thursday i fancy these two betts.

 Bautista-Agut R. - Nishioka Y.  Bautista -2.5 (Set Handicap)  1.70

I'm not a fan of these big lines and we all saw what happened with Kyrgios this morning but i like this one. RBA is true competitor,he's in excellent form and he's not going to underestimate his opponent. He only dropped one set in season so far and have demolished Pella in R1 63 61 61.
Nishioka is maybe a talented guy - i'll give you that,but i fell that he's unproved yet in Grand Slams. Last season - for example - he's lost all three GS matches he played without taking a single set from Cuevas (AO), Stakhovsky (W) and Anderson (USO).
RBA in straigt sets for me.

Cibulkova D. - Hsieh Su-Wei   Cibulkova -5.5 (Game Handicap)  1.75

Pretty big line,but i guess that Dominika will cover it more often than not. She finished last season in big style by winning the WTA Masters Cup. It seems like that some private issues she had didn't affect her game and she won her R1 match against Alertova 75 62. I don't know how much is she capable against stronger opponents,but will probably have too much power for Hsieh.
Hsieh is more like a veteran player these days and her glory days are over. She's 91.in rankings and holds her top 100 status mainly playing smaller events. I took a look on her last season performances and noticed that she easily lost every match she played against better ranked players. Her  game is too defensive and i can't see how Su will cope with Dominika's aggressive game.
 

Well the H2H is the obvious reason, but I think that Doi has improved more than Parmentier since then. Doi also had MBs against Kerber in Melbourne last year if I remember correctly, so she can play in the conditions.

Maybe because of H2H which stands on Parmentier side?
On other hand - those matches are little outdated.

It was me who asked you to do it.
Thanks Czech,appreciate it! 

Serena's coach said that apparently - and he's usually trustworthy.

Tennis. Auckland, 1. round, hard

Facundo Bagnis vs. Brydan Klein.
Facundo Bagnis does not like to play on hard, but I still think he has a better chance to win in this match. Facundo Bagnis already played one match on the tournament in Doha in 3 sets lost against Dustin Brown.
Brydan Klein has managed to play five matches. In the last round of qualifying it with great difficulty, he defeated another clay player - Steven Diez 3-6 6-4 6-4. Bagnis much stronger than Diez.
So that is why my tip - Facundo Bagnis will win this match. The odds is great. Good luck

Eibar - Atletico Madrid
Full Event Away -0.75 (AH) @ 1.943 5/10 PINNACLE
Football / Spa. Primera / Kick off: 07 Jan 2017, 16:15
Match between 8th and 6th team of La Liga will be played on Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa in Eibar at 16:15. Eibar is again showing that even if they are another team from Basque region, they are capable to be in top10 of Primera. With Mendilibar who's in charge of the team since July 2015, they looks pretty solid team and even if they are without "big names", results are fine. It's true that the gap between 16th and 8th team is only 7 points, but I believe that they will be able to stay somewhere in the middle of the league table (9-13). Kike (injured in last cup match) and Ramis will be out for long time, so it may happen that they will bring someone in January, but for now there is no new faces in club. Atletico Madrid qualified in next phase of Champions League as 1st placed team, beating strong Bayern München, but in La Liga we could say that they were struggling, or at least not reaching their goals. After loosing on El Madrigal with Villarreal (3-0), many things changed. In start of the season they tried to play more attacking football, with more offensive minded players on the pitch, trying to create more chances, having more possession, but after being most known team because of they're defensive approach in last 2 years it is too hard to change the style, even if you have players like Griezmann and Carrasco are. After mentioned defeat, they started turning back to "old Simeone's style" and that's why I see value in odds close to even here. Oblak, Carrasco, Partey, Tiago and Fernandez are out. The fact which convinced me to go with Atleti here is, that they're going back to "old shape Atleti". Even if I am not fan of this style, it brought success to them, and Eibar will have big problems with creating chances. Eibar is used to attack over wings, where Juanfran and Luis are doing really good job for Atletico for a years, and it doesn't concern me too much. Atletico is one of teams, capable to create chances from all elements of football. They can break throw over wings, throw the middle, from direct and indirect set-pieces and they simply needs to improve, because 3rd placed Sevilla is 5 points in front of them, also Villarreal and Real Sociedad looks in pretty good form, but with help of Barcelona (at least draw) and Sevilla (at least draw), they could jump over "yellow submarine" and team from San Sebastian, so match is really important for them and with quality and experiences they possess, they should take all three points from Eibar.

Ligue 1 is finished for this year, and I finished it in best possible way.
Stats for Ligue 1 so far:

Real Madrid - Sporting Gijon
Full Event Away +3.25 (AH) @ 1.862 3/10 PINNACLE
Football / Spa. Primera / Kick off: 26 Nov 2016, 16:15
 
Match between 1st and 18th team in La Liga will be played at 16:15 on Santiago Bernabeu. Real Madrid is coming to match after win in Lisbon, with which they qualified for 1/16 of CL, but they still have match with BVB in front of them, which will decide who will finish the group on 1st place. This week they're playing against Gijon, and because El Clasico is almost here (on 3rd December), I believe that Zidane won't take too big risk with his injured players and that he will rest some of them. Morata and Kroos are already out. New player out is Bale who will be out approx. for 4 months, but Casemiro and Pepe are coming back after injury. Marcelo was substituted against Sporting because of injury. Zizou could rest also Carvajal or Modrić. There is also fact that Sergio Ramos is just one yellow card away from suspension so it can happen that Real will start match with plenty of rotations (out for sure: Kroos, Morata, Bale; possible rest: Ramos, Modrić, Carvajal, Pepe, Marcelo,..). Sporting is in awful form. They got only 2 points in last 6 matches, and Abelardo's team is facing a big problems. They're coming on Santiago Bernabeu without Burgui, who is Real's player and can not play against his parent club while Lilo is coming back on his right back position after being suspended in last round. Let's be honest. Real with full strength is at least 5 goals better club than Gijon, but I am sure that Gijon will play this match with 105%, crazily motivated and probably also crazily defensively. Football is improving from year to year, those small teams are getting better in better in tactics with defensive approach and counters, and if Varane and Nacho will play on centre back positions, I am pretty sure that Gijon will have they're chances to score here. Don't get me wrong, they are both fantastic players, but they're not experienced as Ramos for example, and lack of motivation or focus can be enough that Gijon will come into good position for scoring. Real will be all over the pitch, they will be much better side, but I think that final result will be with 2-3 goals difference.

RCD Espanyol - Leganes
Full Event Home -0.50 (AH) @ 1.854 6/10 PINNACLE
Football / Spa. Primera / Kick off: 26 Nov 2016, 18:30
 
Match between 12th and 15th team in La Liga Santander, will be played on stadium, where Espanyol is still seeking for first win this season. Espanyol is coming to match after win against Deportivo Alaves. They are without lost for 6 matches in row and in my opinion this match is ideal opportunity for first home win and also to continue lose less streak. They will have Leo Baptistao back to squad, so the only missing player will be Perez who is suspended. This team with Quique is getting in better shape as they were in start of the season and they are slowly climbing on the league table. 8th placed team is only 3 points in front of them. Lleganes finally won in last round. They won against Osasuna, while they were in streak of 5 loses in a row before. It's true that they finally got 3 points, but on the other hand they lost two important players - Alexander Szymanowski and Robert Ibañez who scored both goals against Osasuna. I took bets on Espanyol few times recently and I really like them. They are experienced team, with offensive minded, good coach, with pretty interesting mix of players and I believe that they will take all 3 points on home stadium this time. Away team has too much problems with injuries and they are also newbies in LaLiga and Espanyol simply needs to take advantage here!

Another Winner, 3 Wins in a row lads
For More Tips http://bit.ly/davidbet

No bet for me. Players come from long pause and Rui Vitoria will rotate team due to next CL game. Marítimo is on ascending performance.

Lorient - AS Monaco
Full Event Away -0.50 (AH) @ 1.990 5/10 PINNACLE
Football / Fra. Ligue 1 / Kick off: 18 Nov 2016, 19:00
 
Monaco's coach said: "Football is always balanced, it's not like volleyball, basketball, handball, ice hockey... That's why it's such an exciting sport. Anything can happen. They will be very motivated. We'll need to play with maximum respect for our opponents in order to get the three points." That's one of the reasons why I was planing to skip odds around 1,78 on Monaco, but now they jumped on average of 1,99 and because there is nothing else then new coach in Lorient and still bunch of missing players, I decided to take 1,99 because I can see value in it. I can still remember match between Nice and Lorient this season, when I took Nice -0,75 with high stakes (6/10). It's true that it finished with half won pick (2-1), but Lorient decided a point in this match. They have some great chances and they missed 100% chance at result 1-1, while Balotelli saved Nice in last minutes of the match. The best player of Lorient was winger Jimmy Cabot, but he is one of those on missing list. Besides, they will also miss first goalkeeper Lecomte, key defender Ciani, attacking midfielder Mesloub, while winger Moukandjo is coming back to the team and will probably start on the wing. On the other side Monaco is going into the match with full power, even if they are in front of important game in Champions league next week. It can happen that Falcao will start on the bench, but they have enough of quality in attack in Germain, Mbappe-Lottin, Silva, Lemar, and other players. Kamil Glik is coming back after suspension and will probably start in central defence position with Jamerson. They will be without Toure, Dirar and Moutinho. In average both teams posses similar percentage of ball possession, both of them wants to play with high number of passes. I wouldn't bet that Monaco will take high % of possession here, but I would bet that they will create more chances. They proved that they are mentally strong also, and what is important - PSG is coming to form! They are already on 3rd place with same amount of points like Monaco, and they will almost for sure take all three points in this round against Nantes, so Monaco needs to win here if they want to stay in front of them. Meanwhile Nice will have a tough match in St. Etienne, so maybe Monaco can be also closer or even on 1st place after this round.

Bets won: Santos 3-2 Vitoria
                 Internacional 1-1 Ponte Preta
                 Sao Paulo 1-1 Gremio

Peru - Brazil
Full Event Away -1.00 (AH) @ 2.110 3/10 PINNACLE
Football / WC Qual. / Kick off: 16 Nov 2016, 03:15
Match between 1st and 8th team of qualifications. Peru needs all 3 points to stay in touch with 5th place and that's the reason why I am going with Brazilians there. They proved me that they are serious team with Tite. I need to admit that I didn't see Brazilian national team playing that "team football" for long long time. Against Argentina everything worked perfectly. I know that motivation in derby was different, but if Peru will try to seek all three points here with playing attacking, offensive football as they did against Argentina, Brazilians will kill them as they killed Argentinians - with counter attacks! With Coutinho, Neymar and Jesus up front they are crazily quick and capable of creating a good chance in 5 seconds. All Brazilian lines are covered strongly, also with some really quality substitutes so I see tough match for Peru tonight. Both teams are coming with 3 goals difference win in last round, but I believe that too much confidence can be bad for Peru against this organised Brazilian team. As Dani Alves said after match against Argentina, they are playing much more team football like they did, and difference between them and Argentina was, that Argentinians were waiting that Messi will do the magic, while all Brazilians are producing magic, and with this kind of mentality I think that this Brazilian team is one of strong favourites of WC.

Bets won:   Oeste 0-0 Avai
                Nautico 1-0 Goias

Bet won: Vila Nova 0-1 Bahia

ft 3-0 pick won.

Sporting - Tondela (Saturday)
Tomorrow will be light rainy day on Lisbon, which will be good for Tondela fast forwarders Murillo, Moreno, Wagner. Additionally, Tondela players usually put good performances against the big clubs. last season they got a draw here and could have won. Sporting still without Adrien which is very important player for the team coherence. Expect a good performance from Tondela and not so good from Sporting.
X2 > 4.5 
Tondela win > 16.0
Belenenses - Benfica (Sunday)
Belenenses facing internal issues recently involving the previous coach, the management and a player named Sturgeon, which is one of the best Belenenses players in my opinion. The previous coach decided to leave the club 2 weeks ago (prior to 1-0 to win against Boavista and then 2-0 loss against poor Académica from 2nd league, already under the command of new coach Quim Machado). The fans are not happy with the management decisions always cycling the club with many coaches on the last seasons due to internal conflict. By the way, the previous coach ( Velazquez ) was doing very good with the club and one of the reasons for the breakup was a recent issue with player Sturgeon (Management wanted to punish this player because of lack of focus on the club but the coach was not in agreement). 
Belenenses probably without Miguel Rosa (important player) and Vítor Gomes both due to injury.
Benfica still without important players (Jonas, Horta, Almeida, Rafa), nevertheless I expect them to win comfortably.
Benfica EH -2 > 3.95

Great emotions tonight Full time 4-2. Pick won

villarreal is just one of those teams that can nick a point. they are top 5 five team in spanish la liga and very good defensively. atletico know how to keep barcelona at bay and at this stage of the season neither team will want to lag points behind the leader. it's games like these that seal the championships and there is so much at stake. i predict both draws