CzechPunter

January 9 - January 15

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Huber/Martinez vs Gavrilova/Kasatkina 3.98 Pinnacle

 

Huber is former #1 among doubles. She is making another return after the 3rd surgery on her knee. This tournament is well planned for her. She was training with Martinez for the last month and the main goal is to participate at AO. Gavrilova had a long week in Hopman cup, where she didn;t play very well on mixed doubles. Both with Kasatkina will have singles matches in mind, so they will not be on 100% on this one. Great odds for a possible surprise.

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Molteni - Moraing 2.81

 

Molteni is coming from a nice week spent in a doubles tournament with 2 wins and one loss in India. He is capable player, who surprised not once or twice far better players than Moraing. This is a great chance for him to win some points on the single rankings. 

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Going rather big early days, hopefully the small margins will be on the right side this time, it wouldn't be nice to go into the Australian Open -200pts down :ok

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4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Going rather big early days, hopefully the small margins will be on the right side this time, it wouldn't be nice to go into the Australian Open -200pts down :ok

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I am quite surprised that you will pick Errani to beat Ozaki. Interesting!!! There are some kind of players that you do not need to wait to test them to be able to rate them. Ozaki is one of those good breeds regardless of whatever small tournaments she has been playng in.She has a real champions mentality. Great chance for a win here with a few games to spare.

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Always like your input Czech.  Me, I am still licking my wounds. Had a decent stake on verdasco to beat djokovic last week, how a pro can not convert so many match points is beyond me. Not the first time this bottler has cost me. Then jack sock let me down for a large amount.  Just looking at matches now, hopefully luck even itself out.  

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32 minutes ago, astute said:

Always like your input Czech.  Me, I am still licking my wounds. Had a decent stake on verdasco to beat djokovic last week, how a pro can not convert so many match points is beyond me. Not the first time this bottler has cost me. Then jack sock let me down for a large amount.  Just looking at matches now, hopefully luck even itself out.  

Been there and done that myself. The only thing I can say is that luck will even itself out eventually, but that it may take a while, even a full season really.

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You would hope so mate. Early on but big kick in the bollocks. Had verdasco had the bottle would have set me up nicely.  Looking at matches, looking for a decent price to start the bank roll. You seen much of finn tearney? He is 9/2 to beat robin Haase. Thoughts Czech?

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I haven't, but I was looking at the match myself. The +5.5 handicap looked sort of nice at first, but the odds were crappy to start with, so that went off. And I also remembered that Haase apparently looked reasonably good against Goffin in Doha - and Goffin is like three classes above Tearney obviously. Could be tight, but probably not happening.

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Too bad he didn't convert it into anything :$. Anyway, another luckless night for me. Fancutt lost 0-2 despite winning just two points less (!) than Harris, Pliskova wasted a 7-5 3-1 lead, and I don't even want to know how Kwon/Maden looked like with the BPs converted being 5/6 against 0/8 against my pick. -135pts off the bat, not what I was hoping for.

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Tennis. Auckland, 1. round, hard

Facundo Bagnis vs. Brydan Klein.
Facundo Bagnis does not like to play on hard, but I still think he has a better chance to win in this match. Facundo Bagnis already played one match on the tournament in Doha in 3 sets lost against Dustin Brown.
Brydan Klein has managed to play five matches. In the last round of qualifying it with great difficulty, he defeated another clay player - Steven Diez 3-6 6-4 6-4. Bagnis much stronger than Diez.
So that is why my tip - Facundo Bagnis will win this match. The odds is great. Good luck

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Flipkens - Niculesku 2.88 Pinnacle

 

Flipkens played very well last week, but lost against Konjuh in a close match. She did pretty nice doubles tournament, where she took the title. The Belgian is leading 3:2 against Monica in H2H despite loosing their last match, when the Romanian was on top form and won Luxembourg WTA tourney. Flipkens started well here with two wins, one on single and one on doubles. My estimation of her odds is max 2.30 for this match.

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Mchale vs Radwanska 6.55 Pinnacle

 

McHale is showing nice form here. She already won in style for matches. The American is a player, who is capable to stun Top 10 players and will give everything in every ball. Aga didn't look very well last week. She was destroyed by Riske, who is weaker player than McHale. I can't belive how they are giving such odds for McHale (I would put max 4.00 for her)

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Monica Niculescu to beat (-1.5 sets) Kirsten Flipkens at 2.25 with Pinnacle

I still think Monica is in good enough form to beat Kirsten here in straight sets. Both times when Monica has beaten Kirsten it's been done in straight sets so it leads me to belive Monica will be to hard for Kirsten again and win this in straights. Monica is a really tricky opponent with her slice shots all the time and my thought is that Kirsten will again have some problems with it. It's always hard to adapt to Monicas style of play. Any player can struggle against it. Even if Kirsten knows Monica very well I don't think she will manage to take a set here. To me Kirsten is acctually not in her best singles form at the moment. Her doubles result says nothing really and getting past Jaimee Fourlis in the Hobart first round 7-6 6-4 is no greater accomplishment.

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Elise Mertens to beat (-3 games) Sachia Vicery at 1.91 with MarathonBet

This seems way too obvious to me (maybe this is why it will lose.. :D ). The fact is that Mertens is playing some excellent tennis since the start of the year, did not drop a single set, while playing against players like Hibino, Gálfi (definitely a top50 player in the future). Today she smashed Mladenovic 6-1 6-2.

Vickery, lucky loser (lost exactly to Mertens in two sets in the last round of the qualies) beat clay courter Pereira, but hopefully will be a sad loser tomorrow.

Even a 2-0 correct score can be played at odds around 2.40.

Good luck!

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21 hours ago, DrO said:

Tennis. Auckland, 1. round, hard

Facundo Bagnis vs. Brydan Klein.
Facundo Bagnis does not like to play on hard, but I still think he has a better chance to win in this match. Facundo Bagnis already played one match on the tournament in Doha in 3 sets lost against Dustin Brown.
Brydan Klein has managed to play five matches. In the last round of qualifying it with great difficulty, he defeated another clay player - Steven Diez 3-6 6-4 6-4. Bagnis much stronger than Diez.
So that is why my tip - Facundo Bagnis will win this match. The odds is great. Good luck

1:6 7:6 6:7 - bet lost :\
Bagnis was 5:2 up in decider,even had couple of match pionts but somehow he didn't menage to win. 
 

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Lopez has two different injuries during IPL in December, but he played all the matches there and was the main force for his team. I am not sure if he was able to heal well. I followed the match with Venus, at 4:4 in the second set Venus got a BP, but didn't manage to score it. However Chardy looked in the second part of last year. This guy is lost somewhere despite his talent.

 

Two propositions from me

Duan - Radwanska 7.6 Matchbook

Radwanska was loosing 0:3 in the first set against McHale and once again didn't look very well. They played with Duan few days ago and Aga was close to lose this match, but managed to steal the win. Not sure if she will be capable to do it once again.

 

Royg - Fett 2.24 Pinnacle

They played in the final round of qualifications. Fett won, but the total points in this match were for Royg (one more). I expect another close match with Royg will have extra confidence after her win over Petkovic.

 

 

 

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On 09/01/2017, 18:38:23, CzechPunter said:

I'll stick to just the two Challenger bets, Ilkel and Garin, can't see much else really. Mertens is the obvious bet, the only issue is that both she and Vickery seem to be still signed up for the AO qualifiers and I'm pretty sure that they need to lose in order to get there.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/news/players-in-tennis-match-race-to-be-the-first-to-quit-204128315.html

Good call Czech.

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The rest is from the WTA AO Qualifiers. I might be self-destructing ahead of the Grand Slam, but I'm not going to ignore value when I think it's there.

Perez to bt. Majeric at 2.10 with Skybet

Perez in a very solid form going into this and home conditions seem to be doing wonders for her as well, so I like her at evens against someone who has very little experience in Australia and who hasn't played in 2017 yet.

Morita to bt. Boserup at 3.50 with Skybet

A tad risky, but let's go for it at this price. Boserup is nothing special in my eyes, while Morita is much better when she's on. She was injured for quite some time, but she seems to be back by the looks of things and the retirement vs. Schiavone was apparently just to not make things worse ahead of this. Morita also won the previous meeting between the two, so worth a shot at 3.50.

Hozumi to bt. Zidansek at 2.50 with BetVictor

Some people see Zidansek as a big talent and I wouldn't disagree, but she has very little hard court experience and also very little Australia experience, so Hozumi should have every chance of winning this imo. Not only does she play in Asia a lot, but she also plays almost exclusively on hard courts.

Kuwata to bt. Shinikova at 2.62 with Bet365

Not a huge difference between the two in my opinion and Kuwata should feel much more comfortable in the conditions as well, especially if the weather gets hotter. Looks like a coin-flip to me really, so I'll go with the premium price.

 

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