Midweek > Dec 21st

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

The last round of Ligue 1 fixtures before the winter break so let's see what we can get from this week of action.

@Pep004, you got caught out by that Bastia win. Not surprising to see a bet lost in a week when PSG also suffered an unexpected defeat!

@sajtion, Montpellier and Bordeaux went a bit off the expectation trail with that result! I have to admit, I thought your score draw call wasn't too bad. Did not see that result coming.

@WinningAdvice, you called it right with Nice. It wasn't emphatic but they got the win. What do you think this week?

@clubgowi, you fell just short with your Angers versus Nantes prediction. What are you opting for this round?

@FCNA, you had a poor week last week but, to be fair, a lot of those results were freak ones. The Monaco home defeat to Lyon was the biggest surprise for me.

[immortal--]

Most of the goals of T.Lemar are on Stade Louis II. so I'll take @3.10 anytime goal scorer, just for fun...

@1.44 for Lyon is good too, especially when they face team like Anger who is in awful form.

Edited December 20, 2016 by immortal--

[Pep004]

I did post match analysis and wrote short views on my blog and I need to say that I am totally satisfied with round, even if profit was smaller then in last weeks. Bastia didn't convinced me. Coach is getting too predictable with Maxime going on in second half on away matches. He succeeded this time, but I think that they will hardly escape defeat against OM. I have already my list prepared, and I will write some analysis tomorrow.

Edited December 20, 2016 by Pep004

[Pep004]

I published it on site after midnight yesterday, but forgot to c/p it here. Odds dropped already, but I think that there is still value over 1,80.

 

Lyon - Angers SCO

Full Event Home -1.25 (AH) @ 2.000 5/10 PINNACLE

Football / Fra. Ligue 1 / Kick off: 21 Dec 2016, 20:50

 

Match between 4th and 15th placed team in French Ligue 1, will be played on Wednesday at 20:50 on Parc Olympique Lyonnais in Lyon. It's not a secret that Lyon is one of my favourite teams, but they simply convinced me this season. They were pretty close to reach 1/16 finals of Champions league (IMO they deserved that more then Sevilla), and now I think that it's time that they show they're power and strength also in Ligue 1 and finish it with 4 wins in row after undeserved defeat against PSG. It's true that they were lucky to beat Rennes at home, but in last round they showed that they can fight for the top places in league. They are 5 points behind 3rd PSG, and they simply need to take all three points in this match. Gonalons is slightly injured, but Bruno Ganesio has many possibilities for his spot. Angers is one of the teams which didn't impress me in this half of season. They took some lucky points, had 3 wins in row from 4th to 6th round, but in my opinion they are far from being able to compete against Lyon at this time. Unfortunately for them, Ketkeophomphone, in my opinion best individual of this team got injured after participating only on 5 matches (twice selected as MOM), and now left full back Andreu is facing the same problems (rupture cruciate ligament) and he is out till end of the season as well. Ekambi and Michel remains doubtful because of knocks, and I think that it will be tough, really tough 90 minutes for Angers on Parc OL. Lyon is one of the teams who wants the ball in they're possession, but also trying with quick counter-attacks when it's possible and right those counter attacks could be the biggest problem for Angers. They are team who is trying somehow, but always having a problem because there is no ideas in last third of the pitch. Consequence of that are long shots, from which they scored some crazy goals, but I call it luck. Another weak point of Angers is letting crucial spots open for 1on1 situation and that's another element of the game, where Lyon with Valbuena, Fekir, Lacazette, Ghezal, and others has powers. Lyon can easily adapt and focus on attacks over flanks, throw the middle, etc. and I believe that they will be well prepared on Angers, and even if things won't go as they are planing, they can change them during the match and do the job. In my opinion Angers has too many weak spots and Lyon will take advantage of that.

[Pep004]

Bastia - Marseille

Full Event Away -0.25 (AH) @ 2.000 4/10 PINNACLE

Football / Fra. Ligue 1 / Kick off: 21 Dec 2016, 20:50

 

Match between 12th and 6th team of French Ligue 1 will be played at 20:50 on Stade Armand Césari in Furiani. I said million times that Bastia didn't convince me so far. They won last two matches - first against Dijon at home, and then away in Rennes. As I wrote in post match analysis there was nothing really special about them and I expect that they will have big problems with Marseille. They won't be able to count on player in form recently - Danic, who is suspended, while also main attacker Crivelli's situation is unclear. OM is coming to match after 3 wins in row, and as said in one of my analysis this last matches of this year were with easier opponents, and with win over Bastia they will be able to hold good position, maybe even jumping for 1 place higher. Garcia started with good work in OM. Players are showing much more then they did before, and it looks that better times are coming for the team from Velodrome in near future. I am not sure about possession, but I am pretty sure that with individuals as Thauvin and Gomis are, OM will create good chances to score. Possession could depend on result here, but anyway I think that it won't be too much on any side. If it will be on any, then it will be on OM's side. Even if Crivelli will play, OM is simply better in build up, they're playing more compact football, with less mistakes, Rudi is not allowing through balls throw his defence, and I think that Bastia will try more or less with shots from distance, which won't be enough.

[malabgd]

Lille OSC v Stade Rennais

Lille OSC: Bautheac (7/0 m), Mavuba (11/0 m), Mendes (7/0 f), de Préville (11/3 f, top scorer), Sunzu (3/0 d), Béria (12/1 d)

Stade Rennais: Mendes (13/0 d), Chantôme (1/0 m), Prcić (8/1 m), Nardi (0/0 g), Grosicki (13/4 f, 2nd top scorer), Habibou (0/0 f), Cavare (0/0 d), Lenjani (2/0 d)

 

Lyon v Angers SCO

Lyon: Tolisso (16/4 m, 2nd top scorer), Rafael (16/0 d)

Angers SCO: Ketkeophomphone (4/0 f), Letellier (0/0 g), Andreu (16/0 d)

 

Paris St. Germain v FC Lorient

Paris St. Germain: Rabiot (11/1 m), Pastore (5/0 m), Ben Arfa (14/0 m), Jesé (9/1 f), Di Maria (15/1 m)

FC Lorient: Lecomte (12/0 first goalkeeper), Conte (0/0 d), Selemani (3/0 d), Fofana (7/0 f), Philippoteaux (12/1 m)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

 

[Pep004]

Nantes - Montpellier HSC

Full Event Home -0.50 (AH) @ 2.380 3/10 PINNACLE

Football / Fra. Ligue 1 / Kick off: 21 Dec 2016, 20:50

 

Match between 19th and 11th placed team in French Ligue 1 will be played at 20:50 on Stade de Beaujoire in Nantes. Nantes is coming to match after 2 wins in row. In those two matches they scored 5 goals, which is same amount as "Girard's Nantes" scored in 8 matches before. Conceicao changed a lot of things, they're game style is totally different and team is aggresive, playing with high pressure and what is important, they are not afraid to attack. I was writing many times that at FCN everything is about defence, and in attack all they're trying is with crosses from the flanks. Now things are different, and I think that better times are coming for Les Canaries in second part of season. Thomason is suspended, while Kacaniklic is not fully fit. With Iloki and Harit on wings they look much better team. Girard was using Harit in midfield, sometimes as defensive midfielder and it's obvious that he is player who likes to have space and likes to be in 1on1 situations. Conceicao gave that to him, and he is playing better. Montpellier whose key player Boudebouz is injured again, won against Bordeaux with 4-0 in last round and it looked like they're fine without Algerian offensive midfielder. 1 week ago, they played on La Beaujoire and lost 3-1. It's true that it was first match of Conceicao on bench of FCN and that Montpellier was playing with some rotations, I think that they will have problems tonight as well. Ninga and Boudebouz are two players on which they were counting the most in front of the season, but now they are without both of them. With Boudebouz in team I wouldn't touch this match, but now I simply see some value in those odds. Nantes is still flying on "new manager" fact, playing much better, specially with more confidence. Montpellier is one of the teams who is not paying too much attention to defend wings, which could be a big problem against Nantes, specially now under Conceicao, where also full backs Dubois and specially Lima are coming in attack more often.

[Pep004]

Ligue 1 is finished for this year, and I finished it in best possible way.

Stats for Ligue 1 so far:

Edited December 22, 2016 by Pep004

[WinningAdvice]

Didn't see that coming. A goalless draw for Nice. But since they've also recently lost to Bordeaux in  Coupe de la Ligue then I think this is an improvement?