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NBA > November

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NBA: Washington Wizards – Toronto Raptors

Recommendation: Raptors -1

Odds: 1.952

Odds seem almost like a trap here, with Toronto being the far classier side. Wizards have a negative expectation for this season, compared with the last one, but they still have to win some games, linger around the 9-10th place in the East and wait for next summer free agents market.

This is their home opener actually and John Wall and Co will find some motivation to perform well in front of their fans. It’s one thing to plan and desire something and another thing to make it happen though.

Toronto swept the season series 4-0 last season. They might not repeat this feat, it’s hard to do it twice in a row with a semi-competitive team, but 3-1 seems like a legit result for the season.

Washington experience much difficulties when playing against opponents with strong backcourt (like Raptors, quite obviously). I am not a fan of Wizards’ perimeter defense too and hope Lowry will finally catch some fire and knock down some 3’s, while slowing down Wall on the defensive end.

All in all, I see this game as Toronto’s win to lose, let’s see

from Clubgowi Basketball Service


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NBA: Milwaukee Bucks – New Orleans Pelicans

Recommendation: Bucks - 5

Odds: 1.87

I think I’ve made myself clear enough, Pelicans will be one of the weakest teams this season. Actually, they are front-runners to be the worst team in the league and to guarantee themselves the best chance to win the lottery. It’s still very early for intentional tanking, they are still very bad and don’t possess deep enough NBA-ready roster besides Davis. The bench situation is even more dramatic, pretty naturally.

Bucks already took the first win in this season’s series, a week ago in New Orleans, and will actually clean sweep Pelicans with a win tonight. Milwaukee come off a 3 days rest tonight, fresh and motivated to continue they good home form with a 4th consecutive victory here.

They play way more freely at home. The last 2 wins here were quite good and comfortable ones, over Sacramento and Indiana. Milwaukee have more than enough big bodies to throw at Davis on the defensive end. It will be a total surprise if they don’t have the rebounding edge too.

All in all, I can’t see New Orleans stopping Bucks from scoring buckets tonight, so hopefully the mid spread won’t prove to be a problem

from Clubgowi Basketball Newsletter

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  • 2 weeks later...

NBA: Sacramento Kings - Los Angeles Clippers

I wondered back and forth in circles as to which is the higher percentage play here, Clipps to cover 8 points spread or OVER. LA are expected to bounce back after the surprising home loss from Memphis. At the other hand, I wouldn’t say Clipps are as strong mentally team as Spurs, Cavs or Warriors, for example. Sacramento win here will be a surprise, yes, but not a total shock. And I doubt eventual Clippers win will come as easy as odds suggest, unless Cousins starts arguing with the refs and gets thrown out or make another stupid thing.

He played well in last season series with Clipps by the way, recording something like 22+ pts. and 12+ rbs. on average. This very much suits his psychological profile, he is eager to compete and measure his skills with the best big men in the league, just like DeAndre Jordan. So I expect a committed performance by DeMarcus.

Actually, these teams surpassed this total line in all 4 meetings last season. There is a perfect explanation for the lower line here though. Clippers play one of the best (if not the best) defense in the league so far. They have the biggest points differential in the league with almost 15 pts. Margin between points scored and allowed on average. This is of course unsustainable for a whole season, albeit Doc Rivers and his boys deserve full credit for the job on the defensive end in the off season.

Yet Kings lost quite narrowly, 105-110, to San Antonio in their last game here in Sacramento. I see pretty good chances they surpass the hundred mark once again, which would mean a winning play most probably.

Recommend.: OVER 205

Odds: 2.01

from Clubgowi Basketball newsletter


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Los Lakers - Spurs 
Lakers ML and Lakers +7 
Odds:3.35 and 1.88 
Flat stakes: 10/10 both 

Same as the guy above me.Lets try this.Lakers has been money maker so far this season.San Antonio a title candidate hasnt been defeated on away games going 6-0.Its already clear that a season like the last one where GS warriors went with only 9 defeats will not going to happen.I expect a team to have no more than 65 wins whoever it is.So we have on one side experienced state of art team going against a core of young players with incredible talent hungry for competition and a win.Since Lakers is playing good at home with only one defeat so far i expect a close game with a fair chances of a win .Additional info that the Lakers bench is the best in the league averaging 50.6 points per game.

Memphis -2.5 
Odds: 1.84 at Pinnacle 
Flat stake : 10/10 

Not only that Dallas has some key missings but the form of this 2 teams is totally opposite.Dallas plays terrible games in my eyes.Slow pace and very boring.On the other side we have Memphis just getting warmed up for the upcoming season.They won 2 hard games as a total underdog against hard opponents both away against Utah (odds 3.2) and Clippers (odds 8.0).Gasol and Conley play great and ZeBo leads their bench very well.I see easy win here for Memphis and maybe an over game.

Boston - GS Warriors
Pick:GS -4 HT 
Odds:1.952 at Pinnacle
Flat stake:10/10

The vice champions are getting in a real form here winning 4 in a row and tonight take on hot and cold Boston.Seems like slowly but surely Steve Kerr is getting his stars to play as a team of winners and i expect them to win tonight as well.The problem so far with Golden State was that they didnt covered the spreads that been released so far.Boston will play without Crowder and probably Al Horford so an incomplete Boston should be weak for GS despite they play at home.


Pick: Denver ML 
Odds:2.5 at Pinnacle 
Flat stake:10/10 

Denver just won their first game at home beating Phoenix with 16 points difference.Toronto lost the last 2 games against the last seasons finalists GSW and Cleveland and they have a though 5 games away tour starting tonight.Odds already dropping i think Denver will push hard for making 2 wins in a row at home.

Pick:Phoenix +4.5
Odds:1.9 at Pinnacle 
Flat stake:10/10 

Odds dropping but still worth taking it.Indiana struggles against teams playing fast basketball.Last news say that Paul George is out tonight due to an injury which is enough for me to take this bet.Big Value!

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Atlanta Hawks-New Orleans Pelicans 
Pick:Atlanta -7.5
Odds:1.877 Pinnacle
Flat stake

Odds changed recently dramatically increased against Hawks but i see no reason so far.Atlanta lost at home only by Lakers as a clear favourite.They won all other 6 games.They had a streak of 6 victories in row including the Cleveland first defeat of the season.But yet this weekend they lost 2 games in a row at NYK and Charlotte.On the other hand New Orleans are one man show so far and everything depends on Davis display.They won only 1 game away so far and are holding a 1-5 score away from home.I see a good chance for Atlanta to bounce back after this 2 lost games in a row.I expect 10+ win

New York Knicks - Portland Trail Blazers 
New York Knicks -2 
Odds:2.05 Pinnacle
Flat stake

Its Portland fourth away game in a row for this tour.New York plays amazing at home and terrible away.However last few games we saw Porzingis kicking ass playing in a great form.D-Rose is pretty solid and surprisingly Carmelo started playing for the team.Portlands form is not that good for now despite they beat Brooklyn.They won 4 consecutive games at Medison Square Garden but i think that tonight this run will end.

Denver Nuggets-Chicago Bulls
Pick: Denver ML
Odds:2.05 Pinnacle
Flat stake

Usually i dont like to back teams like Denver.Its the team i know less about in the whole league smile.gif However,they put a very good performance against Toronto but they lost in the OT.They trashed Utah after that and they host red hot Bulls tonight.Wade sat out last game against Lakers and should be back tonight.However as this is fifth game in a row played away Chicago coach may make a game time decision to rest some of the other players.Denver has a great record against Chicago at home wining all the last 9 games since 2006.

LA Lakers - OKC Thunder
Pick:Lakers ML 
Odds:2.18 Pinnacle
Flat stak

OK maybe i am a Lakers fan and maybe i go to much backing the Lakers but lest be honest,they ve been one of the best moneymakers so far this season.Covering the handicaps,easily going over and even beating the favorites.Coming from last season as the worst Western conference team,and now a team that competes with every other,team that has a winning mentality with young players that hate to lose,and yes that do not respect anyone.OKC has for me the best guard in the past 5 seasons,Russell is ****ing monster but yet he does not have a support when he needs and this is why they loose the games.This is whats happened with Indiana last game,Russell had 31p11r15a but only 2 other of his teammates had double digit points in the OT loss.Home court should be a small advantage for Lakers,I expect them to bounce back in the third real test after losing by Spurs and Bulls.

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NBA: Sacramento Kings - Oklahoma City Thunder

The line is set about right, maybe only a point or two bigger than it should be. Yet I see decent chances this game develops into a shootout, something like 120-115 for one of them.

Both team’s strength is not the defensive part of the game. Kings usually make entertaining home games as their fans (and even their owner) very much prefer to see wins like that 120-115, instead of 100-95. Demarcus is hungry for points to his statistics as always, no need to mention that, but even Rudy Gay remembered his old days like one of the leagues’ elite one-on-one scorers lately.

Thunder lost disappointingly at LA against Lakers. Their defense wasn’t on the required level and it will be tested tonight again. At the same time, Westbrook is relentless, he attacks the rim again and again, almost single-handedly made a near come-back in LA.

3 of the 4 meetings in this series last season finished well over this total.

Recommend: OVER 213

Odds: 2.00

from Clubgowi Basketball newsletter


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Indiana Pacers-Atlanta Hawks
Pick:Atlanta ML
Odds:1.87 @ Pinnacle
Flat stake

Atlanta played terrible yesterday.The team looked like a bunch of retards playing street basketball.A lot of turnovers leading to easy 2 points in a counter attacks for Pelicans.Now Atlanta has 3 losses in a row and playing b2b game away.Now this is what i like at Atlanta.They are a totally unpredictable and now i think they will bounce back a moment when everyone excpects then to be beaten again.On the other side Indiana plays hot and cold.Their main star George is listed as probable and should play but if he plays i think he might be limited with minutes.GL

Pick:Philadelphia ML HT 
Odds:2.55 @ Pinnacle
Flat stake

OK now i really hate backing 76ers but i see a good value.76ers has won 2 in a row and this is their first consecutive wins since 2015.We all know th they have a young core of players and they are only looking to the future but yet they like to compete.On the other side Memphis has a nice series of 5 wins beating every opponents pretty easy.This is their 5th game away in last 8 days and 6th away in the last 10 days.

Charlotte Hornets-San Antonio Spurs
Pick:Charlotte +6
Odds:1.83 @ Pinnacle
Flat Stake

Spurs won all games away this season and has a 6 games winning streak.However this streaks are not for forever and it might come to an end when noone expects.Charlotte usually plays good at home especially against good teams and title contenders.Pop prefers to rest his players when needed which was a case last game against Dallas when he rested Parker and LaMarcus.He might rest some other players from his rotation and Parker is questionable for tonight as well.I think it will be a close game at least.

Detroit Pistons-Miami Heat 
Pickbiggrin.gifetroit -4 
Odds:1.83 @ Pinnacle
Flat stake

Detroit has a 4 games losing streak and are looking to bounce back tonight in front of their fans.Miami seems like a good opponent for this.They struggles offensively and this the chance for Pistons.Pistons usually plays good at home.GL

Brooklyn Nets-Boston Celtics
Pick:Brooklyn +7.5 and Brooklyn ML
Odds: 1.92 and 3.74 @ Pinnacle
Flat stake

IMO Boston is not a team that should be given 1.3 when he plays away no matter of who his opponent is.This is a case tonight as where i will be seeking the underdog to cash in.I predict a surprise in this game and a Brooklyn win.

Houston Rockets-Toronto Raptors
Pick:Houston -3.5 
Odds:1.854 @ Pinnacle
Flat stake 

The Rockets hold an 18-3 career record against Toronto in Houston.Toronto finish their road trip tonight after previously beat Denver in OT and lost at Sacramento and Clippers.Houston increased their form after returning of their point guard Patrick Beverly and one 3 games in a row since his comeback.I see a tired Raptors and a team with a great cohesion in Houston with a home advantage and desire to win.GL

Utah Jazz-Denver Nuggets
Pick:Under 197
Odds:2.1 @ Pinnacle
Flat stake

We have one of the most defensive teams playing at home against Denver Nuggets a team that doesnt really has a style of play but adjust to the style of the opponents.IMO this is a huge value and i see a winner here.Denver will miss one of his best players tonight Danilo Gallinari and with him out they will lose a lot of power offensively.GL

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GSW-LA Lakers 
Pick:Lakers ML HT 
Odds:8.43 @ Pinnacle
Flat stake

OK call me crazy maybe.I ve been thinking a lot should i get this pick or not but lets face the truth.Golden State are a clear favourite for this game.The odds for their win is 1.015 against 26 for Lakers.Lakers trashed GSW in the first game holding GS to only 97 which is their i think season low.Now the public is speaking that Curry and the others will want a revenge blah blah something that for me is nothing but a stupid talk.The reason for my bet is the scenario in my head which says that GSW might take the game slow playing without defense,few missed shots and that might be the advantage for Lakers to score few points in a row and take advantage that might hold until the HT.I still think that GS will win this game but for sure LA will not give up until the end.Dangelo will miss for lakers which is a huge blow Calderon and Huertas are far from bad IMO.Just try to remember last season game when GSW had the best season in NBA history and Lakers had the worst season in their history.One of the 9 defeats of GSW in the whole season came from the terrible Lakers where Marcelo Huertas was giving basketball lessons to his opponents.Everything can happens here i see good value in this game.Lets finish November in style.GL

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Boston-San Antonio
Pick:Boston ML
Odds:2.33 Pinnacle
Flat stake

OK time for Spurs to lose their first game away.Boston is the real team for it.I dont trust Boston when they play away but at home its different story.They can play good defense,now are compete and will play in front of full arena on a thanksgiving day.Enough for me to back them.


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LA Lakers-GS Warriors 
Pick:GS -13.5
Odds:1.98 @ Pinnacle
Flat stake

We witnessed a 149 points in a game few days ago.Splash trio scored 85 of them.The odds should grow later in the day or in the night as Russel is out,and Randle and Young are questionable and most probably Randle will not play.With this missings for Lakers they could not compete with probably the strongest squad in the league.The key point here is that without Randle there is noone that can guard Green which will be the main figure and deciding factor.Once is announced that Randle will not play the odds and the line will change.Even if he plays this is the bet of the day for me.GL

Utah Jazz-Atlanta Hawks
Pick:Under 194
Odds:1.79 @ Pinnacle
Flat stake

The lines and the odds are dropping fast already.The reasons here are simple,Utah plays slow pace ball,good defense and has established as one of the best "under" teams in the league during the years.On the other side Atlanta has a nice rim protectors in Howard who slowly finds himself after being lost in the past few seasons since leaving Orlando.Paul Millsap as well is good defender and Atlanta has a nice defense in the paint.Additionally the Atlanta guards play terrible IMO with a lots of turnovers which is another good reason for this bet.GL

Indiana Pacers-Brooklyn Nets
Pick:Brooklyn +8.5
Odds:2.01 @ Pinnacle
Flat stake 

As i said in a several of my previews Indiana plays hot and cold and definitely struggles against a fast pace teams.On the other side Brooklyn started good but now they are playing bad at the moment and has lost 5 games in a row.They have nothing to loose already they know that their season is over and they will probably be in competition for the worst team in the league.They know they should do better and their center Lopez will be key tonight.If he plays well i see at least close game and even an upset.GL

Sacramento Kings-Houston Rockets
Pick:Under 216
Odds:1.87 @ Pinnacle
Flat stake 

Houston has struggled offensively in their last game vs Toronto something what i ve been surprised to see.Harden started to miss free throws something that is pretty weird as well.On the other side Sacramento are totally different this year if you compare them with their last season.They changed George Carl as a coach who has been LOST with the tactics and handling the players as well.Now they appointed Dave Joerger who was in charge of Memphis and we all know how good in defense were Memphis with him.I see slow basket tonight.GL

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Charlotte Hornets-New York Knicks
Pick:Charlotte -5.5
Flat stake

I love New York,they are my eastern conference team and i really love how they are playing at this point.Melo,Rose and Porz are really playing at All Star level.But lets not dream about them being champions.They are in good form but yest they won the last 3 games at home.Now they play away,a rematch with Hornets from yesterday where they won after a OT.On the other side we have Hornets,a team with 4 lost games in a row,but honestly they deserved a defeat only by Memphis,all other games vs NY,Spurs and Pelicans they didnt had the luck,and 2 of this 3 games they lost in OT.They are a play offs team a team for even semi finals or finals in the EAST.Kemba is a superstar,and their current situation doesnt make a real picture of how strong they are.I like this kind of matches and my ZIGG ZAGG theory for this games is working.I see them winning this match easy,and IMO this line is wrong.I expect easy win with 10+ points tonight.

Miami Heat-Memphis Grizzlies
Pick:Memphis ML
Odds:1.97 Pinnacle
Flat stake

Memphis is not a team that will lose 2 games in a row in 2 nights with an opponent like Miami.As i said in my previous post, i love ZIGG ZAGG betting and taking bets bets like this especially in playoffs.But this game is a present for me as IMO this odds are present to us.Its going to be a hard game but i see Grizzlies winning.A big plus for Memphis is returning of their sixth man ZeBO after missing the game yest coz of his mothers dead.There is a chance i take another bet on this game which is over on this game.Yesterday we had an easy bet on this game on UNDER with 17 points difference from the score and line.Today we have a nice lower lines options from yest which may go over easily.

OKC Thunder-Detroit Pistons
Pick:Over 203 
Odds:1.952 Pinnacle
Flat stake

i really dont have any reasons for this bet but its worth taking.Their last games showed that none of this teams has problems with scoring,either OKC=Westbrook or Pistons which demolished Clippers yesterday.They might be tired after a difficult games yesterday but i like the chances i think this bet is playable until the line 207.And i think the odds will drop later again but this time in my favor.

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Pick:Cavs -12 
Odds:1.952 @ Pinnacle 
Flat stake

Usually i dont like this kind of bets with high handicaps but we have a David and Goliath situation here.The question is if Cavs will have the motivation to demolish the 76ers.It should be easy doing that,76ers miss few players and they dont have anything that can compete with Cavs at the moment.Yes its true the only time this season when Cavs were challenged was the previous game where Cavs won 102-101 and 76ers should have won it because they didnt got a crystal clear foul in their last attempt to score.But as the season goes Cavs is breaking records and i can easy say that this is the best team in the league and its most probable this team to repeat the success from last season,despite being a LeBron hater.GL

Pick: Suns ML
Odds:1.862 @ Pinnacle
Flat stake

Gallinari still questionable for this game,Phoenix playing at home.This 2 teams are pretty similar if we compare them and they are both probably not play offs teams.However sunday games played at home have a much advantage for the home teams.I take my chances and i like the odds for Phoenix.GL

Pick:Nets ML
Odds:2.8 @ Pinnacle
Flat stake

I backed the Nets to win or to cover the handicap in their last few games but i always failed.They played terrible.But their run of defeats cant last forever.Hosting a team like Sacramento is a good chance to end a 6 games losing streak.Odds are nice,despite not going in my favour i like to take the chances and risk on them.If this bet is not won i would probably not back Brooklyn anymore in this season,or i will when the odds for them to win will be over 5.00.GL

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NBA: Charlotte Hornets - Detroit Pistons

I’m a bit surprised that Pistons receive such a high regard here, being given only +3 points on the spread. The reason probably is that they have had a day more rest than Hornets, who are back-to-back. The b2b factor is weighing less and less in present day NBA though, with all the medical attention players receive, plus the general schedule this season is way lighter than in the last years.

The rest can’t really compensate for Pistons terrible road form. They have only 1 win in 9 road games so far and are just not the same team, at home and on the road. Charlotte boosted their win column with 2 nice wins over Memphis in a home-and-home series and will be eager to build on that. Only Marvin Williams stays inactive for them with injury, the other players with minor knocks played normally against Grizzlies.

Charlotte won 3 of 4 against Detroit in last season series, including both games here. Anything else bar another home win would be a surprising result here. Hornets average around 2 rbs. per game more than Detroit (rebounding is presumably one of Motor City boys strongest sides behind Andre Drummond) and around 10 (!) pts. more on the offensive end.

Recommendation: Hornets -3

Odds: 2.02

from Clubgowi basketball newsletter


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New Orleans-LA Lakers
Pick : over 217 
Flat stake 

Los Angeles ripped New Orleans 126-99 on Nov. 12 as a one-point road favorite behind some ridiculous shooting from 3-point land (16-of-30). Including that win, the Lakers have won three of the last four from the Pelicans. Los Angeles has gone 3-5 on the road but helped bettors with a 5-3 ATS mark. New Orleans has hit its mark offensively (110.7 PPG) at home this season, which has led to a 7-2 ‘over’ record. The Lakers have been a strong ‘over’ team (11-6-1) this season and the aforementioned meeting this season saw the high side cash.

Picks;Milwaukee ML and Milwaukee +8.5
Odds:3.75 and 1.8
Flat stake 

Very hard game to predict but i like the chances here.Jason Kidd,Bucks coach likes to challenge the best teams in the NBA with his young core of players.Cavs are making records this season and they play in a great form.Big 3 is competing who will score more points,LeBron and Westbrook are chasing eachother with the triple doubles.However Cavs won only with 4 point difference.Playing away is harder,we will see a close game tonight for sure,and with a bit of luck this bet should be won. 

Pick:Charlotte -3 
Flat stake

I expected a higher line honestly.Hornets should win this easy IMO and this line should be covered easily with at least 5 points.Last game we had Hornets was to cover -5.5 with Knicks and we failed for half point and Hornets missing 100 free throws in the last minute of the game.However Detroit is another story i think they will get better soon and the better days will come once their guard Reggie Jackson will comeback.Detroit is playing great at home,they crashed Clippers in their last game at home,and their record says that no team they hosted this season didnt reach 100 points which is a great record.Kemba is playing great and Batum should be back tonight.I expect easy win.This is the bet of the day for me GL.

Utah - Houston 
Pick : Utah ML 
Odds:2.05 ML 
Flat stake

Utah is becoming one of the best teams to handicap and predict for me.Sorry Harden fans but i cant go against one of the best defense in the league playing at home against one of the worst defense in the league.Houston coach DAntoni is well known coach that prefers run and gun style and he is looking to score more than the opponent with absolutely no attention on his defense paid.Utah home court will decide this game,i think Harden will be neutralized tonight and when he is Houston does not have a chance here.GL

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