Australian Open 2017

[CzechPunter]

[DrO]

Czech,did you mention that Surface will be faster on this Year AO?

[CzechPunter]

Serena's coach said that apparently - and he's usually trustworthy.

[CzechPunter]

Men's: http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/draws/2017_MS_draw.pdf

Women's: http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/draws/2017_WS_draw.pdf

Just some random observations - Djokovic facing Verdasco in the first round , Raonic has a pretty straightforward draw by the looks of things, Berdych-Federer possible in R3, yeah Federer without a chance in this draw, Nishikori would be next and then Murray, that looks impossible without some tremendous luck. In women's, its Pliskova who has the softest draw from the bigger favourites, by far perhaps even. Kerber has a relatively easy start, while Serena could go Bencic-Safarova-Babos-Strycova, all possible upsets if the cards fall right for them and Williams doesn't perform.

[CzechPunter]

I was thinking long and hard about how to approach this year's Australian Open, since I'm going into it -170pts down and that obviously isn't adding to my confidence. That said, I think that "fear is the mind killer" and that one shouldn't be overly cautious just because of a bad streak, especially if the said streak had plenty of near-misses that could've easily turned it into a break-even or even a profitable result.

Now - I think that it's a good idea to do a lot of research and I've also noticed that someone on here requested a longer preview, so why not, let's combine the two, write all the thoughts down, at least for the outrights. Here we go then.

P.S.: Apologies in advance for all grammar, spelling and betting mistakes

Men's Tournament

Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic are the two main favourites in the men's draw and who's to oppose that, right? Well, I don't know really, they didn't look all that great in Doha and I'm looking at you especially, Novak Djokovic. You've hired some sort of a zen buddhist to help you out and you're then raging on the court against much weaker players and getting fined for bad conduct in the final? Sounds like the plan has worked out!

Looking at the first quarter, it might seem like Murray has quite a minefield ahead of himself with both Nishikori and Federer in the same part of the draw, but don't let that fool you. He's a massive favourite to win, because he can meet only one of them! There's Pouille and Isner to trouble him before that, but good luck backing those. No bet.

The second quarter should be much more tense, with Wawrinka not looking like a particularly strong favourite on the face of it. He lost against Nishikori, right? Well, that's not a bad result in my book and he's got all the weapons and he always ups his level for the Grand Slams. The other guys, meanwhile, all have their own issues - Tsonga hasn't looked good recently, Kyrgios is allegedly injured, and Cilic lost against Kovalik in Chennai. This should lead to the logical conclusion that Jack Sock is to be backed here in double-digit and I even wanted to do that really, but I'm really afraid of the heat. It's supposed to be hot in Melbourne and Sock is known for having problems with such conditions - and he's also played way too much tennis recently to be fully fit. No bet.

The third quarter should be between Rafa and Raonic, but there could be many more surprises imo. Zverev could beat Rafa with a bit of luck, Raonic could struggle with fitness, etc. And there's actually a guy that I like this time in Roberto Bautista-Agut. He's got a low profile, but he is a top player in his own right and he's got a good record in Melbourne. Good form as well, so he's worth a shot at long odds imo.

Finally, we get to the fourth quarter, the one where Djokovic is. Why not Dimitrov, however? He played stunning tennis in the first week, he seems to be in a great place mentally, and he's got a soft draw early on, so he should be fully fit going into the possible clash with Djokovic. It will be tough, he will need some luck, but I'm going to give it a shot.

In side-bets, Murray is worth a shot to go further than Djokovic imo, as is Thiem to go further than Berdych and Bautista-Agut to go further than Monfils.

Women's Tournament

As far as the women are concerned, I think that both Kerber and Williams are overrated in the betting, but Kerber probably has the better chance and I certainly wouldn't mind her going all the way to win my pre-season bet on her winning at least one Grand Slam title.

With that, I'm not going to have any bets in the first quarter. Not only do I hope for Kerber to win it, but I also think that she's got every chance to do so. She wasn't great in the warm-up tournaments, but she's got the winning mentality and I think that this would potentially push her over the line against the likes of Kasatkina or Bouchard. Let's give her a chance and hope she delivers without doubling down.

The second quarter has Halep, Kuznetsova and Venus, but I think that it could easily be Svitolina to steal the show, as she has certainly been the best of them all so far in this season. Scrap that, Siniakova has, but she's unproven in Grand Slams and I doubt her mental resilience, sorry. Unless Svitolina breaks down mentally, she could go really really far.

The third quarter is where Karolina Pliskova, the dark horse of the entire event, is. She's got all the weapons, she was mighty impressive in her tournament win two weeks ago, and she has an incredibly soft draw. But yeah, there's also Radwanska, who leads the H2H record between the two by SEVEN wins to NONE and FOURTEEN sets to NONE. Crazy.

The fourth quarter is where all the fun is, plenty of ball-bashers with no plan B and I really enjoy how Wozniacki is there to enjoy it all. She'll get past the first two rounds, but it will be a minefield after that and I don't see her winning the quarter, just doesn't have the game imo. I guess that there's plenty of money going on Williams, but I've got serious doubts about her - come on, she hasn't played a decent match since the US Open and she has a wedding to look forward to! In other news, Cibulkova has apparently just had a death in the family, so that could either boost her or pull her down. Shrewd bets are probably Konta and Strycova, I'll go with the latter.

In side-bets, I'll back Svitolina to go further than Wozniacki and Radwanska to go further than Halep.

Bets

Back Roberto Bautista-Agut to win the third quarter at 18.00 with Unibet

Back Grigor Dimitrov to win the fourth quarter at 8.50 with Coral

Back Andy Murray (vs. Novak Djokovic) at 1.90 with Bet365

Back Dominic Thiem (vs. Tomas Berdych) at 1.83 with Bet365

Back Roberto Bautista-Agut (vs. Gael Monfils) at 1.83 with Bet365

Back Barbora Strycova to win the fourth quarter at 29.00 with Bet365

Back Elina Svitolina (vs. Caroline Wozniacki) at 1.72 with Bet365

Back Agnieszka Radwanska (vs. Simona Halep) at 2.25 with Bet365

[DrO]

It was me who asked you to do it.
Thanks Czech,appreciate it! 

[Torque]

Thanks for that Czech. A good read and a few things I didn't know about.

[CzechPunter]

Good luck to everyone!

[Torque]

Outright bets to kick things off for me.

Andy Murray to win the Australian Open @ 2.88 Betfred

Murray heads into the first Grand Slam of the year as the best player in the world for the first time and whilst some might suffer a dip in motivation or form having reached the top, in Murray's case I think he will be even more focused than he was before. He spoke about how he wanted to keep his ranking before his regular training block after last year's Tour Finals, and I expect him to be hungry to add to what he achieved last year. Up to now this title has eluded him due to the exploits of Djokovic, but it's probably fair to say that this is his best chance to finally win the big one Down Under.

Novak Djokovic to win the Australian Open @ 3.00 Unibet

At this boosted price, I'll cover my Murray bet with Djokovic. As much as his level dropped last season and he hasn't made the best start to this, it's hard to ignore his record here which is formidable. I think one of the reasons he does so well is his fitness which allows him to cope with the sometimes brutal conditions better than the other top players. I'm prepared to overlook the temperament issues that have affected him recently and his split with Becker because despite those things I think he'll make the final at least.

Angelique Kerber to win the Australian Open @ 5.50 Betfred

I'd say Serena Williams is too short in the betting, but I'm happy enough with this price on Kerber. The defending champion might not have had an explosive start to the season but that doesn't concern me all that much, as her focus now is most likely the Grand Slams and so the last couple of weeks have probably been about fine-tuning her game. Her draw is favourable and her intensity levels should be a lot higher here than they were in Sydney, and so Kerber is the player I want to be on at the top of the market.

 

 

[WinningAdvice]

Is Novak or Murray the favourite to win this year?

[CzechPunter]

29 minutes ago, WinningAdvice said:

Is Novak or Murray the favourite to win this year?

Most say small advantage Novak, I say small advantage Murray.

[WinningTipster]

3 PICKS FOR THE AUS. OPEN:

PLISKOVA -6games over SORRIBES @ 1.41 pinnacle
Pliskova is one of the favorites for the tournament. She is in great form winning all 5 matches in 2017 with ease.

KUZNETSOVA-DUQUE 2-0 SETS @ 1.26 pinnacle
Duque's last match was in August 2016. Kuznetsova is in great form, an easy 2-0 sets win for her.

NARA -2games over VOEGELE 1.82pinnacle
A good match-up of styles here, as Nara is just too consistent for Voegele. 4-0 head--to-head record for Nara

 

[_Ghost_]

Can somebody tell me why Almagro is outsider against Chardy? I make him fav?

[CzechPunter]

One more outright for me.

Back Rafael Nadal to reach the QFs at 2.25 with Skybet

I do have my doubts about Nadal and I'm taking RBA to win his quarter, but I'll take this one nonetheless, as the odds are just too good. Only Monfils and Zverev in his part of the draw, so not sure why this is so well above evens, 1.70 max imo.

[CzechPunter]

21 minutes ago, jamiedavies02 said:

Can somebody tell me why Almagro is outsider against Chardy? I make him fav?

Almagro was dreadful against M.Zverev in Sydney. Personally, I think that the odds are correct, Chardy a small fav.

[xxx1984xxx]

Hi Czech. 

Im from Germany and I love it to read your analysis. Thanks for that. 

 

Mein english isn't very well. So Im sorry. 

Can You tel me, why Doi has that big odd?

for me she is a big Favorit 

 

thanks a lot!

[CzechPunter]

16 minutes ago, xxx1984xxx said:

Hi Czech. 

Im from Germany and I love it to read your analysis. Thanks for that. 

 

Mein english isn't very well. So Im sorry. 

Can You tel me, why Doi has that big odd?

for me she is a big Favorit 

 

thanks a lot!

Danke Mein deutsch is nicht besser, aber ich denke, dass Doi Parmentier schlagen kann (vielleicht sollen).

Good spot actually, Doi could be worth a shot at 1.70+, but I haven't seen either player recently.

 

[DrO]

35 minutes ago, xxx1984xxx said:

Hi Czech. 

Im from Germany and I love it to read your analysis. Thanks for that. 

 

Mein english isn't very well. So Im sorry. 

Can You tel me, why Doi has that big odd?

for me she is a big Favorit 

 

thanks a lot!

Maybe because of H2H which stands on Parmentier side?
On other hand - those matches are little outdated.

[CzechPunter]

Well the H2H is the obvious reason, but I think that Doi has improved more than Parmentier since then. Doi also had MBs against Kerber in Melbourne last year if I remember correctly, so she can play in the conditions.

[CzechPunter]

Bublik has gone from 6.50 to 4.50 . Edit: actually it was even crazier (pic).

[vikki37]

Doi's odds are now the favourite of the match.  She is at 1.66 but Parmentier is now 2.2. 

[xxx1984xxx]

Doi was all time the favourite 

she loves the Court. 

As Czech saied. Last year she had a MP against Kerber. 

Good Luck all!

[owenclass]

Day One

Facundo Bagnis vs Dan Evans

Over 35.5 games 4/5 sky bet

I expect Evans to get through to the next round as he has had a good stsrt to the year. But it always tough in the first round of a Grand slam. And with the heat then Evans could lose a set

Edited January 16, 2017 by owenclass

[owenclass]

On 14/01/2017, 12:40:37, CzechPunter said:

I was thinking long and hard about how to approach this year's Australian Open, since I'm going into it -170pts down and that obviously isn't adding to my confidence. That said, I think that "fear is the mind killer" and that one shouldn't be overly cautious just because of a bad streak, especially if the said streak had plenty of near-misses that could've easily turned it into a break-even or even a profitable result.

Now - I think that it's a good idea to do a lot of research and I've also noticed that someone on here requested a longer preview, so why not, let's combine the two, write all the thoughts down, at least for the outrights. Here we go then.

P.S.: Apologies in advance for all grammar, spelling and betting mistakes

Men's Tournament

Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic are the two main favourites in the men's draw and who's to oppose that, right? Well, I don't know really, they didn't look all that great in Doha and I'm looking at you especially, Novak Djokovic. You've hired some sort of a zen buddhist to help you out and you're then raging on the court against much weaker players and getting fined for bad conduct in the final? Sounds like the plan has worked out!

Looking at the first quarter, it might seem like Murray has quite a minefield ahead of himself with both Nishikori and Federer in the same part of the draw, but don't let that fool you. He's a massive favourite to win, because he can meet only one of them! There's Pouille and Isner to trouble him before that, but good luck backing those. No bet.

The second quarter should be much more tense, with Wawrinka not looking like a particularly strong favourite on the face of it. He lost against Nishikori, right? Well, that's not a bad result in my book and he's got all the weapons and he always ups his level for the Grand Slams. The other guys, meanwhile, all have their own issues - Tsonga hasn't looked good recently, Kyrgios is allegedly injured, and Cilic lost against Kovalik in Chennai. This should lead to the logical conclusion that Jack Sock is to be backed here in double-digit and I even wanted to do that really, but I'm really afraid of the heat. It's supposed to be hot in Melbourne and Sock is known for having problems with such conditions - and he's also played way too much tennis recently to be fully fit. No bet.

The third quarter should be between Rafa and Raonic, but there could be many more surprises imo. Zverev could beat Rafa with a bit of luck, Raonic could struggle with fitness, etc. And there's actually a guy that I like this time in Roberto Bautista-Agut. He's got a low profile, but he is a top player in his own right and he's got a good record in Melbourne. Good form as well, so he's worth a shot at long odds imo.

Finally, we get to the fourth quarter, the one where Djokovic is. Why not Dimitrov, however? He played stunning tennis in the first week, he seems to be in a great place mentally, and he's got a soft draw early on, so he should be fully fit going into the possible clash with Djokovic. It will be tough, he will need some luck, but I'm going to give it a shot.

In side-bets, Murray is worth a shot to go further than Djokovic imo, as is Thiem to go further than Berdych and Bautista-Agut to go further than Monfils.

Women's Tournament

As far as the women are concerned, I think that both Kerber and Williams are overrated in the betting, but Kerber probably has the better chance and I certainly wouldn't mind her going all the way to win my pre-season bet on her winning at least one Grand Slam title.

With that, I'm not going to have any bets in the first quarter. Not only do I hope for Kerber to win it, but I also think that she's got every chance to do so. She wasn't great in the warm-up tournaments, but she's got the winning mentality and I think that this would potentially push her over the line against the likes of Kasatkina or Bouchard. Let's give her a chance and hope she delivers without doubling down.

The second quarter has Halep, Kuznetsova and Venus, but I think that it could easily be Svitolina to steal the show, as she has certainly been the best of them all so far in this season. Scrap that, Siniakova has, but she's unproven in Grand Slams and I doubt her mental resilience, sorry. Unless Svitolina breaks down mentally, she could go really really far.

The third quarter is where Karolina Pliskova, the dark horse of the entire event, is. She's got all the weapons, she was mighty impressive in her tournament win two weeks ago, and she has an incredibly soft draw. But yeah, there's also Radwanska, who leads the H2H record between the two by SEVEN wins to NONE and FOURTEEN sets to NONE. Crazy.

The fourth quarter is where all the fun is, plenty of ball-bashers with no plan B and I really enjoy how Wozniacki is there to enjoy it all. She'll get past the first two rounds, but it will be a minefield after that and I don't see her winning the quarter, just doesn't have the game imo. I guess that there's plenty of money going on Williams, but I've got serious doubts about her - come on, she hasn't played a decent match since the US Open and she has a wedding to look forward to! In other news, Cibulkova has apparently just had a death in the family, so that could either boost her or pull her down. Shrewd bets are probably Konta and Strycova, I'll go with the latter.

In side-bets, I'll back Svitolina to go further than Wozniacki and Radwanska to go further than Halep.

Bets

Back Roberto Bautista-Agut to win the third quarter at 18.00 with Unibet

Back Grigor Dimitrov to win the fourth quarter at 8.50 with Coral

Back Andy Murray (vs. Novak Djokovic) at 1.90 with Bet365

Back Dominic Thiem (vs. Tomas Berdych) at 1.83 with Bet365

Back Roberto Bautista-Agut (vs. Gael Monfils) at 1.83 with Bet365

Back Barbora Strycova to win the fourth quarter at 29.00 with Bet365

Back Elina Svitolina (vs. Caroline Wozniacki) at 1.72 with Bet365

Back Agnieszka Radwanska (vs. Simona Halep) at 2.25 with Bet365

I like your Australian Open bets

But there is a few you add as well like

 

Jo Wilfried Tsonga to win Second quarter 4/1 paddy power

Alexander Zverev to win Third quarter 8/1 paddy power

Karolina Pliskova to win Third quarter 11/4 paddy power

Dominika Cibulkova to win Fourth quarter 7/1 paddy power

 

I like the look of these bets as they all have a great chance of going far in the tournament as a few of them have got good records at this event. And also at least two of them a very talented players who have a great chance of winning a Grand slam

Edited January 16, 2017 by owenclass

[CzechPunter]

Utterly sickening. I was hoping for Kuznetsov to give me that one lucky break at nice odds, but then Melzer barged in and lost from 5-2* and a match point. Streaks like these really tempt one to do something silly - a bet on Verdasco to win 3-0 tomorrow, anyone?

Edit: Pouille visibly limited, but fighting. Isn't going to go far though.

Edit2: Now that Bublik is a break up in the fourth, it would be really painful for me to see him lose. Double break up now even, but got broken when serving for it. Just incredible.

Edit3: Thank you Sasha.

[CzechPunter]

Back N.Djokovic/F.Verdasco - Over 3.5 sets at 2.87 with Paddy Power

While I don't see Fernando Verdasco winning this, I think that there's a good chance that he's going to give Djokovic a decent run for his money yet again. He can play stunning tennis when he's not under pressure, while Djokovic has been having slow starts to tournaments for quite a while now. At 2.87, I'm happy to say that both will win a set tomorrow.

[CzechPunter]

Back Tommy Haas (+2.5 sets) to beat Benoit Paire at 1.68 with Unibet

Call me sentimental, but I think that Haas will give it his all and that's sometimes all you need to do in order to beat Paire, who's still as lacklustre as it gets. With the conditions being tough, I can easily see him switching off completely for at least one set - and you can be sure that Haas will be eager to step in and take his chances.

[CzechPunter]

[ogii55]

10 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Utterly sickening. I was hoping for Kuznetsov to give me that one lucky break at nice odds, but then Melzer barged in and lost from 5-2* and a match point. Streaks like these really tempt one to do something silly - a bet on Verdasco to win 3-0 tomorrow, anyone?

Edit: Pouille visibly limited, but fighting. Isn't going to go far though.

Edit2: Now that Bublik is a break up in the fourth, it would be really painful for me to see him lose. Double break up now even, but got broken when serving for it. Just incredible.

Edit3: Thank you Sasha.

Those are really painful to watch. My last experience was doubles Huber/Shanchez vs Gavrilova/Kasatkina. It was 6:1, 4:0 for my girls before the horror movie started.... However sometimes a happy end is needed. Well done, mate!

[ElPrincipito007]

Already an early bet for me: Evans +2.5 sets @1,657

I think odds are quite surprising. Evans is doing very well in the beginning of the season, while Cilic is struggling a little bit. He already needed 5 sets against Janowicz. Because I am not brave enough to bet on the straight win, I 'll take the handicap.