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Serie A > Nov 15-17


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Coritiba vs Santa Cruz

This match-up looks straight-forward but the game itself is likely to be tense. Hosts need three points to banish the relegation ghost and play the remaining matches in the championship with calm; and this game comes after a morale-boosting 2-0 home win against high-flying Atletico MG. Coach Paulo Cesar Carpegiani returns from suspension, as do key players left-back Carlinos and attacker Leandro. But important central midfielder John Paul remains absent and team will rely on Amaral.

Visiting Santa Cruz know that a defeat in this match against a fellow north-eastern rival will mathematically confirm their relegation. But the players are also keen to end these final rounds with dignity, after facing several off-field issues in this championship. Notably, Santa Cruz has been more compact and improved defensively in the recent matches. Coritba has also been solidly defensive and patient at home. Under 2.5 goals.

America MG vs Flamengo

Defeat for the hosts will mathematically confirm relegation. But their mind-frame can be read from the decision to sell off this game and earn extra income by playing it away at the Atletico MG stadium.

Flamengo comes from a bad patch of four matches without a win (three draws and one loss), practically waving goodbye to their title hopes. The goal now is to secure at least third place, to ensure automatic spot for the group stage of the Copa Libertadores.

America MG has recently improved defensively, with the last three matches all ending with a single goal (two wins and one loss). And I suspect that Flamengo will seek to rediscover their defensive solidity, following a recent leakage of seven goals in the last five matches. Under 2.5 goals.

 

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Santos vs Vitoria

Hosts are in third spot, six points behind leaders Palmeiras. Must win this home tie to remain in contention in case the leaders stumble. Moreover, after this game, Santos will face two straight away matches against difficult opponents - Cruzeiro and Flamengo. But for this game against Vitoria, Santos has a makeshift defence, with three key defenders missing.

Vitoria is desperately clinging onto survival in Serie A, in a duel with Internacional for the remaining realistic spot. Vitoria has regained belief with the return of top-scorer Marinho, who is on fire at the moment. With the hosts' makeshift defence, I expect: BTTS and Over 2.5 goals.

Internacional vs Ponte Preta

Hosts are in relegation trouble and must win this game at home. But they face a tense match against wounded Ponte Preta, coming from three straight losses and seeking a reaction to stem their recent free-fall. The visitors' attacking game has particularly suffered, following recent failure to convert chances. Under 2.5 goals.

Sao Paulo vs Gremio

Hosts have little realistic hope of gaining a G6 spot for Copa Libertadores but have been in form recently and are coming from a morale-boosting 4-0 home thumping of Corinthians. Gremio's priority is the Brazil Cup final - but they'll be keen to recover from a 3-0 home loss to Sport Recife and particularly to avoid a multi-goal rout against rampant Sao Paulo. Under 2.5 goals.

 

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Internacional vs Ponte Preta

It's a must win for Internacional, no argue about that, but I don't think Internacional will be out for the kill, they know that if Ponte Preta score in a counter attack they are going to be in a really precarious situation. I think that in second half, short of options as the clock ticks, they are going to make substitutions in order to advance the team and put Ponte Preta against the ropes. As I see no value betting on Internacional to win the game, I'm happy to take HT/FT Draw/Internacional @4.00, small stake. 

Edited by Thales
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10 hours ago, Thales said:

Internacional vs Ponte Preta

It's a must win for Internacional, no argue about that, but I don't think Internacional will be out for the kill, they know that if Ponte Preta score in a counter attack they are going to be in a really precarious situation. I think that in second half, short of options as the clock ticks, they are going to make substitutions in order to advance the team and put Ponte Preta against the ropes. As I see no value betting on Internacional to win the game, I'm happy to take HT/FT Draw/Internacional @4.00, small stake. 

You almost nailed it! Bad luck

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11 hours ago, gogetta said:

Santos vs Vitoria

Hosts are in third spot, six points behind leaders Palmeiras. Must win this home tie to remain in contention in case the leaders stumble. Moreover, after this game, Santos will face two straight away matches against difficult opponents - Cruzeiro and Flamengo. But for this game against Vitoria, Santos has a makeshift defence, with three key defenders missing.

Vitoria is desperately clinging onto survival in Serie A, in a duel with Internacional for the remaining realistic spot. Vitoria has regained belief with the return of top-scorer Marinho, who is on fire at the moment. With the hosts' makeshift defence, I expect: BTTS and Over 2.5 goals.

Internacional vs Ponte Preta

Hosts are in relegation trouble and must win this game at home. But they face a tense match against wounded Ponte Preta, coming from three straight losses and seeking a reaction to stem their recent free-fall. The visitors' attacking game has particularly suffered, following recent failure to convert chances. Under 2.5 goals.

Sao Paulo vs Gremio

Hosts have little realistic hope of gaining a G6 spot for Copa Libertadores but have been in form recently and are coming from a morale-boosting 4-0 home thumping of Corinthians. Gremio's priority is the Brazil Cup final - but they'll be keen to recover from a 3-0 home loss to Sport Recife and particularly to avoid a multi-goal rout against rampant Sao Paulo. Under 2.5 goals.

 

Bets won: Santos 3-2 Vitoria

                 Internacional 1-1 Ponte Preta

                 Sao Paulo 1-1 Gremio

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