Valiant Thor

Just the one selection for me 10pts ew  18/1 Unibet 6 places

The 3 flat green tops (extra place races) got some reasonable priced placed horses but the twig hoppers failed to deliver which is no surprise really and just reinforces why I dont take much interest in twig hoppers
In hindsight, taking the rated flat runners with a positive edge in an ew Trixie would have produced a nice payout (mainly thanks to the 50/1 shot ) but overall Im pleased with the outcome,it will be interesting to see how the parameters get adjusted now its run some live data.

Will put the other results up if Hamilton eventually finishes before it gets dark

Of the other Hcaps only 3 had a positive edge 1 placed @ 20/1 (extra place with skybet) the other 2 lost @ 7/1 & 15/2
4 winners but non had a positive edge.
Off to watch my NFL bets make some money

The 3 flat green tops (extra place races) got some reasonable priced placed horses but the twig hoppers failed to deliver which is no surprise really and just reinforces why I dont take much interest in twig hoppers
In hindsight, taking the rated flat runners with a positive edge in an ew Trixie would have produced a nice payout (mainly thanks to the 50/1 shot ) but overall Im pleased with the outcome,it will be interesting to see how the parameters get adjusted now its run some live data.

Will put the other results up if Hamilton eventually finishes before it gets dark

Of the other Hcaps only 3 had a positive edge 1 placed @ 20/1 (extra place with skybet) the other 2 lost @ 7/1 & 15/2
4 winners but non had a positive edge.
Off to watch my NFL bets make some money

Laoise 50/1 second in the 2.05 Ham (green top) looks promising

Been spending most of my time on Kaggle lately and and Ive been quite impressed with the ease of use and results from XGBoost which seems to be the go to ML tool atm so Ive had a little play fired in some parameters and  given it a whirl on the 8+ runner hcaps to see how it fares today ?.
Ive incorporated an expected price algo in to give some idea of an expected edge if any against the horses price, +/- 10% of book price would be a reasonable expectation of the horses ratings accuracy at this early stage ( ie if Exp Odds is say 5.00 but price is 21 (320% edge) it does not mean massive value as the difference in odds is more likely due to missing data rather than a cock up by the bookies ?)
Anyway Ive stuck them up for the maiden trial and see how they fare (Green tops are the extra place races which are the ones I'm mainly interested in for a possible future betting medium)
All top rated are normalised to return max of 100 for ease of calculation with my pricing algo (Could just as easy be set to anything but 100 suits as its the Datum used for all of my other stuff ).

WEEK 2


7 selections this week

**Best overall odds from 1 book @ time of posting, better odds may be available from selected books**

 

WEEK 2


7 selections this week

**Best overall odds from 1 book @ time of posting, better odds may be available from selected books**

 

IMO
The definition of a good punter is one that starts with 100 and tries to win 10
The definition of a bad punter is one that starts with 10 and expects to win 100
The 'Tortoise and the Hare' springs to mind

I'm guessing its Dubai Outlaw

IMO
The definition of a good punter is one that starts with 100 and tries to win 10
The definition of a bad punter is one that starts with 10 and expects to win 100
The 'Tortoise and the Hare' springs to mind

Over the last 5 years there have been 16 horses that have started at shorter than 1/20 and they have all won.

UPDATE WEEK 1




1 push and 2 from 3 on the remaining selected bets. ( SF49's won but 4 short of the spread )
A push for the NAP and an easy victory for the NB.



Not a bad start to the season with a 64% sr on all selections (eat your heart out Teddy Covers )

UPDATE WEEK 1




1 push and 2 from 3 on the remaining selected bets. ( SF49's won but 4 short of the spread )
A push for the NAP and an easy victory for the NB.



Not a bad start to the season with a 64% sr on all selections (eat your heart out Teddy Covers )

You can store your ratings on the RP but you have be a subscribed member
Basically you input the rating for the winner and the site works out the ratings for the beaten horses then stores every rating on the horse's form page
When I used to do my own speed ratings I did them manually then entered them on the RP site for storage and future reference
 
 
 

I think @BillyHills uses horseracebase to come up with his ratings.
You used to be able to do your own ratings on Racing Post I think dont know if you still can.
Most who do there own use Access/Excel to create them

EXPECTED  BOOKS           Week Date US Time Home Away H-Spread H-Spread ODDS selection BET W/L   1 Sep-10 8:20PM Kansas City Chiefs Houston Texans -10.00 -9.00 1.91 Kansas City Chiefs -9 @ 1.91       1 Sep-13 1:00PM Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis Colts 5.00 7.50 1.91 Jacksonville Jaguars 7.5 @ 1.91       1 Sep-13 1:00PM New England Patriots Miami Dolphins -21.50 -10.00 2.20 New England Patriots -10 @ 2.2 BET   NAP 1 Sep-13 1:00PM Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers -2.00 -2.50 1.91 Green Bay Packers  2.5 @ 1.91       1 Sep-13 1:00PM Detroit Lions Chicago Bears 4.50 -2.50 1.90 Chicago Bears  2.5 @ 1.9 BET     1 Sep-13 1:00PM Baltimore Ravens Cleveland Browns -16.00 -7.50 1.95 Baltimore Ravens -7.5 @ 1.95 BET   NB 1 Sep-13 1:00PM Washington Football Team Philadelphia Eagles 10.50 6.00 1.95 Philadelphia Eagles  -6 @ 1.95       1 Sep-13 1:00PM Carolina Panthers Las Vegas Raiders 0.00 3.00 1.90 Carolina Panthers 3 @ 1.9       1 Sep-13 1:00PM Atlanta Falcons Seattle Seahawks 2.50 -1.00 1.86 Seattle Seahawks  1 @ 1.86       1 Sep-13 1:00PM Buffalo Bills New York Jets -8.50 -6.50 1.91 Buffalo Bills -6.5 @ 1.91       1 Sep-13 4:05PM Cincinnati Bengals Los Angeles Chargers 6.50 3.00 1.83 Los Angeles Chargers  -3 @ 1.83       1 Sep-13 4:25PM San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals -15.00 -7.50 2.00 San Francisco 49ers -7.5 @ 2 BET     1 Sep-13 4:25PM New Orleans Saints Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.50 -8.00 1.91 Tampa Bay Buccaneers  8 @ 1.91       1 Sep-13 8:20PM Los Angeles Rams Dallas Cowboys 1.00 2.00 1.95 Los Angeles Rams 2 @ 1.95       1 Sep-14 7:15PM New York Giants Pittsburgh Steelers 8.00 6.00 1.91 Pittsburgh Steelers  -6 @ 1.91       1 Sep-14 10:10PM Denver Broncos Tennessee Titans 7.00 3.00 1.91 Tennessee Titans  -3 @ 1.91                            
SELECTIONS                       New England Patriots -10 @ 2.2 BET NAP
Baltimore Ravens -7.5 @ 1.9 5 BET NB
Chicago Bears  2.5 @ 1.9 BET
San Francisco 49ers -7.5 @ 2 BET
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Never in doubt

Giacomo 30.95 @ 4.33........Backed into 3/1 fav ......4th 
El Astronaute 22.35 @ 6.....Backed into 4/1 ............4th
Dhabyah 46.70 @ 2.87........Backed into 10/11 fav....2nd by a SH

Bad day @ Blackrock
This is exactly why I prefer to let my Algo on Betfair do my betting for me (its better at it than me that's for sure )
1 bet 1 winner, Id have made 100pts more profit today and not even had to waste my time looking at the ATR site this morning

 

I dont get BOG with most firms unless my lad puts it on his account but as he's at work these are the best prices I'll get, regardless whether I wait till 10am or whatever time BOG kicks in.
Giacomo 30.95 @ 4.33
El Astronaute 22.35 @ 6
Dhabyah 46.70 @ 2.87
100pts staked
1 winner returns 134pts ish
 

I dont get BOG with most firms unless my lad puts it on his account but as he's at work these are the best prices I'll get, regardless whether I wait till 10am or whatever time BOG kicks in.
Giacomo 30.95 @ 4.33
El Astronaute 22.35 @ 6
Dhabyah 46.70 @ 2.87
100pts staked
1 winner returns 134pts ish
 

1.10 Font COURTANBOULD 44 @ 3.00
2.45 Font ORCHESTRAL RAIN 56 @ 2.37
Staked 100
Returned 132
Profit 32

1.10 Font COURTANBOULD 44 @ 3.00
2.45 Font ORCHESTRAL RAIN 56 @ 2.37
Staked 100
Returned 132
Profit 32

Actual rounded stakes backed at.......
2.05 Wexford DARE TO FLARE 23.25 @ 5.5
2.25 Stratford FOR PLEASURE 42.65 @ 3.0 @ 9/4 BOG
5.30 Kempton REDEMPTIVE 34.10 @ 3.75
100 staked
138.61 returned
38.61profit
 

ALL B365
33pts staked
Cabellero 5.40 win single
Bashiba 4.20 win single
Nibras Again 5.40 win single
Sea Art 6.00 win single
Frame rate 6.00 win single
Chinese Spirit 6.00 win single
15pts staked
15 * 50p ew doubles
2pts staked
1 * ew Acc
Total 50pts staked
1 winner 54pts ish
should be fun

Actual rounded stakes backed at.......
2.05 Wexford DARE TO FLARE 23.25 @ 5.5
2.25 Stratford FOR PLEASURE 42.65 @ 3.0 @ 9/4 BOG
5.30 Kempton REDEMPTIVE 34.10 @ 3.75
100 staked
138.61 returned
38.61profit