Racing Chat - Sunday Sept 20th

[BillyHills]

4 meetings, small fields

Two Class 2 handicaps at Chelmsford

130

 

300

 

130
1pt Oh This Is Us 9/2 betvic
1pt Harrys Bar 5/2 betvic

300
1pt Desert Safari 3/1 bet365
1pt Live In The Moment 11/4 Hills

4 x 1pt Doubles

 

[calva decoy]

Sunday All Weather Patent @ the old Great Leighs

130- Animal Instinct 4/1

300- Sampers Seven 6/1

435- Tanita 9/4

Prices bet365

[The Equaliser]

No multiples today

Equaliser bets

1.45 Plum American Craftsman 70p win at 12/1

2.50 Plum Jamacho £2 win at 4/1

2.00 Chelm Sunshineandbubbles £2 win at 6.6 = £10.98 Has been running really well and won't mind if it doesn't win as long as it tries its best

total stakes = £4.70

My pick of Napster tips

3.00 Chelm Firepower 70p win at 14/1

1.30 Chelm Dubai Legacy £1.20 at 7/1

5.40 Ham  Triple Nickie £1.20 at 13/2

= £3.10 so far

LAY BET

1.15 Plum Calidus Mirabilis £20.42 at 2.94 I/R (UM 3.35) May as well do this as I do it anyway when I'm losing on my win bets.  Let's hope that @Valiant Thor is right ?

Ps Calidus Mirabilus got matched so I won £20 (but not in the way I imagined).  NB I need 3 out of 4 to make a decent profit. 2 out of 4 breaks even at requested odds of 2.94

3.30 Chelm Derry Boy 70p win at 14/1 (which is a bit skinny and I hope it drifts

£3.80 on Napster tips so far

4.00 Chelm Old Harbour 70p win at 14/1

£4.50 total so far on Napster tips

=====================================================================================================

Yet another blank day on my win bets.  Total loss = £9.20 therefore the singles balance c/fwd is onow £250.58 (Bank £400)

No multiple bets today so the balance remains the same at £670.69 (£800 Bank)

No wins on my pick of the Naps selections so the memo balance c/fwd is - £21.50

My lay bet did lose so I won £20 which is the start of my figures for this strategy.

This seems the best way to go for me.  It isn't losing money on the win bets that I resent so much it is the amount of time I spend on trying to find winners.  To me it is a lot easier to try and assess a handful of short priced favourites to lose as opposed to say trying to find some winners from say over 300 runners.

Hopefully in time I will be able to give some decent analysis for my lay bets, probably won't come close to @Bathtime For Rupert but I have a long way to go to prove that I can be successful at this.  As explained I need 3 out of 4 losers to make a decent profit.  Two out of three just breaks even as I set the maximum price to 2.94 (in- running if need be)

Three class 3 races are the best we are going to get tomorrow out of the four tracks putting up races so it looks like another tough day for punters

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 20, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[Valiant Thor]

Been spending most of my time on Kaggle lately and and Ive been quite impressed with the ease of use and results from XGBoost which seems to be the go to ML tool atm so Ive had a little play fired in some parameters and  given it a whirl on the 8+ runner hcaps to see how it fares today ?.
Ive incorporated an expected price algo in to give some idea of an expected edge if any against the horses price, +/- 10% of book price would be a reasonable expectation of the horses ratings accuracy at this early stage ( ie if Exp Odds is say 5.00 but price is 21 (320% edge) it does not mean massive value as the difference in odds is more likely due to missing data rather than a cock up by the bookies ?)
Anyway Ive stuck them up for the maiden trial and see how they fare (Green tops are the extra place races which are the ones I'm mainly interested in for a possible future betting medium)
All top rated are normalised to return max of 100 for ease of calculation with my pricing algo (Could just as easy be set to anything but 100 suits as its the Datum used for all of my other stuff ).

Edited September 20, 2020 by Valiant Thor
Jetstream an NR in 3.20 re-rated (Flashdanza)

[richard-westwood]

230 chelm 

Broughton excels 223 +1 

Indian affair  221 +1

These 2 are a little clear of rest so I'll.play 

Broughtons excel 10lts win 9/2 bet365 

Indian affair 10pt win 10/1 bet365 

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Valiant Thor said:

Been spending most of my time on Kaggle lately and and Ive been quite impressed with the ease of use and results from XGBoost which seems to be the go to ML tool atm so Ive had a little play fired in some parameters and  given it a whirl on the 8+ runner hcaps to see how it fares today ?.
Ive incorporated an expected price algo in to give some idea of an expected edge if any against the horses price, +/- 10% of book price would be a reasonable expectation of the horses ratings accuracy at this early stage ( ie if Exp Odds is say 5.00 but price is 21 (320% edge) it does not mean massive value as the difference in odds is more likely due to missing data rather than a cock up by the bookies ?)
Anyway Ive stuck them up for the maiden trial and see how they fare (Green tops are the extra place races which are the ones I'm mainly interested in for a possible future betting medium)
All top rated are normalised to return max of 100 for ease of calculation with my pricing algo (Could just as easy be set to anything but 100 suits as its the Datum used for all of my other stuff ).

Very Interesting.  I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that the big boys have sorted out all the in-runnig lay odds in their favour; I've even seen a horse being beaten by a head and not matched for a lay bet at 2.04.  I do realise that you abhor "lay" betting BUT where I believe that punters may well score is to set up an in-running WIN bet on a horse at 2 to 3 times its available price at the off.  For example, Nahaarr in the 3.40 Ayr Gold cup yesterday was matched at 90/1 in running according to the commentator on ITV yesterday.  The only reason I mention this is because it seems to me that quite a number of your 100 rated exp odds are greater than the odds available now.  It occurs to me that if you backed them on Betfair in running and pressed the "keep" button that they may well be matched during the race and could show a decent profit in the long run.  Just a thought.  

[Valiant Thor]

4 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Very Interesting.  I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that the big boys have sorted out all the in-runnig lay odds in their favour; I've even seen a horse being beaten by a head and not matched for a lay bet at 2.04.  I do realise that you abhor "lay" betting BUT where I believe that punters may well score is to set up an in-running WIN bet on a horse at 2 to 3 times its available price at the off.  For example, Nahaarr in the 3.40 Ayr Gold cup yesterday was matched at 90/1 in running according to the commentator on ITV yesterday.  The only reason I mention this is because it seems to me that quite a number of your 100 rated exp odds are greater than the odds available now.  It occurs to me that if you backed them on Betfair in running and pressed the "keep" button that they may well be matched during the race and could show a decent profit in the long run.  Just a thought.  

These are not live on BF yet ,this is a trial.
The rating predictions should get more accurate the more it 'learns' ,therefore making the exp odds more accurate.
All my bets cancel @ the off as anything can happen in running and if your perceived odds are wrong scalpers will have a field day and I don't intend to feed the leeches

[The Equaliser]

7 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

These are not live on BF yet ,this is a trial.
The rating predictions should get more accurate the more it 'learns' ,therefore making the exp odds more accurate.
All my bets cancel @ the off as anything can happen in running and if your perceived odds are wrong scalpers will have a field day and I don't intend to feed the leeches

I always respect your opinion, however, I do feel that you could be missing out with the in-running angle of doubling or trebling of requested odds.  As you rightly say, anything can happen in racing after the off but quite often favourites drift out during the race only to come back in when they they get back into the race. Sure, a horse can fall at the first fence or rise up in the stalls at the off on the flat and blow its chances but on balance I feel that it could well be a value angle to exploit.  

I hope that you are keeping well and have noticed that you have had a good run of recent winners that should be appluaded

 

[Valiant Thor]

3 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I always respect your opinion, however, I do feel that you could be missing out with the in-running angle of doubling or trebling of requested odds.  As you rightly say, anything can happen in racing after the off but quite often favourites drift out during the race only to come back in when they they get back into the race. Sure, a horse can fall at the first fence or rise up in the stalls at the off on the flat and blow its chances but on balance I feel that it could well be a value angle to exploit.  

I hope that you are keeping well and have noticed that you have had a good run of recent winners that should be appluaded

 

Laoise 50/1 second in the 2.05 Ham (green top) looks promising

[Valiant Thor]

The 3 flat green tops (extra place races) got some reasonable priced placed horses but the twig hoppers failed to deliver which is no surprise really and just reinforces why I dont take much interest in twig hoppers
In hindsight, taking the rated flat runners with a positive edge in an ew Trixie would have produced a nice payout (mainly thanks to the 50/1 shot ) but overall Im pleased with the outcome,it will be interesting to see how the parameters get adjusted now its run some live data.

Will put the other results up if Hamilton eventually finishes before it gets dark

Of the other Hcaps only 3 had a positive edge 1 placed @ 20/1 (extra place with skybet) the other 2 lost @ 7/1 & 15/2
4 winners but non had a positive edge.
Off to watch my NFL bets make some money

Edited September 20, 2020 by Valiant Thor
Results