arsenalfh

Mall Dini did it nicely. 

Liminis connections are of the opinion he won't be beaten ....but I think tea in transvaal might be nonpushover ....ran a cracker against devilment here in fast time then supposedly improved last time ...only negative is longnlayiff but he has run well aftervlay off in past ...at 22/1 he just looks value bet
Tea in transvaal 5 pts ew 22/1 bet365

Following on from my previous post I have just checked the markets again and I think 8/1 with Hills for Tea In Transvaal without both Limini and Smart Talk is very big.

Very competitive race and there's 3 I like. Bookies going 5 places so I'm not worried about throwing a few darts at this.
First one I like is Mall Dini. Placed in two really good handicaps in Ireland and improving. His latest 3rd looked like one of the hottest handicaps on both sides of the sea and it's already working out well. He stumbled coming down the straight and didn't seem to have the pace for 2m 4f so stepping back up to 3m should suit.
Another one I like is Warrior's Tale. Put in a personal best on his debut over fences but flopped next time when Nicholl's weren't going well. He returned to hurdles when 2nd to Cup Final who is one of the favourites for this and traveled like the winner the whole way around. They might just restrain him a bit more as the yard have suggested changing tactics which might bring more improvement. That being said he's still lightly raced and is the pick of stable jockey Sam Twiston Davies so he should go well at a price.
The last one I like is Rolling Maul. He was balloted out of this last year and was progressive over hurdles last spring. He flopped over fences but was better when 4th in a qualifier behind Flintham. He still needs to improve on that but he would have hated that ground so hindsight it might look a good run and he's been dropped 2lbs. David Noonan takes off a valuable 5lbs too and is a claimer to keep onside so I can see him going well.
Mall Dini e/w @ 20/1 - Bet365
Warrior's Tale e/w @ 25/1 - Bet365
Rolling Maul e/w @ 50/1 - Bet365

Vautour being redirected to this race makes it a real pain in the arse now. They have said he is only 90% fit so that is enough for me to take him on, at least to an extent.
Al Ferof has to be respected for Dan Skelton but he seems to be at his best on his first run of the season and he is short enough to take a chance on Skelton changing that pattern for all that he has a big chance on his form this year.
Valseur Lido has fallen and unseated on his last two and that is enough for me to pass in a race like this.
Taquin De Seuil could be involved. He has a little to find but ran really well on his first start after injury. He did a similar thing the year before though, putting in the same figure before going off the boil. He is a price to take that chance though.
Josses Hill is more interesting now as a front runner but he has generally been sticky over his fences and given that he has a bit to find anyway, the combination of the two is enough for me not back him in a good race like this.
Dynaste has the profile of a plot for Pipe but given that this isnt a handicap it wouldnt make too much sense and I would have expected to have seen more for all that I had an interest on him AP.
The two I have gone with are Road to Riches and Village Vic.
Road to Riches loves good ground and has run really well over this trip previously at less testing trips. His trainer was confident of another good show in the Gold Cup so in this weaker race he would have a good chance. I will be splitting my stake on him on the nose in the main market and also in the without Vautour market.
Village Vic has been a big improver this year and whilst I have him on a similar rating as TDS, Al Ferof and Dynaste, Village Vic is still improving. My concern regarding the accuracy of my rating is something I am taking into account as he has improved on bad ground this winter so my stake wont be very big, however it is believed by connections that he does prefer better ground so again that could see more improvement from him. He clearly acts well at the track and is of interest EW in the without Vautour market at around 14/1.
 
 
 
 

4.50 Cheltenham - Coo Star Sivola e/w @ 22/1 Paddy Power
I don't like the favourites in this. Diego is just hype, Campeador has been given a high mark on what he's done, Missy Tata doesn't look the most genuine and Fixe Le Kap looks slow. My selection finished runner up in a weak Grade 2 on his first start for the yard but it was still a good performance before a below par effort on heavy ground at Chepstow. I think he's going to relish this ground and I like the booking of Lizzie Kelly.

Happy with that

I am going to back Polly Peachum to exact revenge on this race from last year where she was touched off at the line as we know she loves the conditions she will get today.
 
I am also going to follow arsenalfh with Desert Queen. This is a last minute bet but I watched the previous reversal behind VVM and looking back at her form, 3 miles is too far for her given how freely she travels and the shorter trip on better ground is sure to bring improvement and she doesnt have much to find to be a win contender. Furthermore I always consider running from the front to be a big help in this race at Desert Queen will want to try and make it all. She is definitely overpriced.

Not one to cheer on a man getting sacked but yesssss 

It's the Supreme Novices Hurdle, one of my favourite races of the whole week and it often gets the week off to a flyer. 
First things first, I will not be backing Min. Not because I dislike the horse but because the price is terrible. That's ok though because it makes the market for afew others. Min in France didnt do anything, didn't have good form. In two starts for Mullins he's won a maiden hurdle and won a race sent off at 1/7. He's jumped well and ran with the choke out. Of the recent Mullins horses that have won this race this is the weakest on form and also the shortest price. A lot of people have seemingly backed it at big prices even before its first run in Ireland. They couldn't have been backing it on its French form so they're backing it because Ricci bought it and it's trained by Mullins. Maybe because it's by the same side as Douvan, Walkinthepalk. Either way it's only guesswork, not to say it can't win but in reality the horse should be around the 8/1 - 10/1 mark for this.
Nicky Hendersons horse Altior is a decent sort, he's battle hardened and experienced over hurdles having 4 runs, winning them all. He's won at Cheltenham before and is progressing, he bolted up in a decent race at Kempton last time out and the form has worked out. We know he'll go on the ground, he'll love the strong gallop he'll get here. There aren't many negatives for this horse and it's hard to see him out the frame.
Tombstone should improve with the likely strong gallop but I'm not sure he's good enough. Beuvar dair has been running well but he's a young horse and this could come abit soon. Yorkhill would have to have a good chance if turning up here but appears to be heading towards the Neptune. He's a Grade1 winner over this trip and the form of that has worked out well. 
Silver Concorde is a 16/1 shot for this, a previous Champion Bumper winner but still a maiden over hurdles. The horse that beat him last time out by daylight is also 16/1, Supasundae for Henry De Bromhead. Supasundae makes appeal at a decent price. He's by Galileo and should improve for the better ground himself, he ran well in the bumper here last year and also beat Yanworth in a bumper. He looked very decent last time but obviously is lightly raced, he should improve and at 16/1 is a decent each way proposition.
 
Verdict: I'm backing these two both each way 1/4 odds first 3. I'll be surprised if Altior doesn't atleast place and I'm confident I'll get the win.
Altior - 4/1 E/W Bet365
Supasundae - 16/1 E/W Bet365

Getting silly this, another big Saturday winner!
Last 5 weeks!
Agrapart 25/1
Theatre Guide 14/1
Saddlers Encore 12/1
Shotovodka 12/1

If you look closely at the previous winners list you will notice the winners ratings. Almost none of these would get in to any Cheltenham handicap these days so i don't think it stops many horses running here. Don't forget we have two consolation handicaps at Kempton next week too, for those who were balloted out of Cheltenham.
We forget the Festival is not for everyone, we only have one 2m handicap hurdle, The County Hurdle, and we have 95 horses entered in that. Number 50 on the list is rated 139 so what will you need to get in there next Friday? I think the Imperial Cup is a good race for those who have no chance of running.

Congrats Jimmy great effort. Tried to nick it with a 13/2 shot today but it wouldn't have mattered in the end. +36.83 is a cracking total.
Thanks again BH. 

Good stuff jimmy !......
hard luck Arsenal .......that's a decent total you got !
Thanks as always to BH.........

Cheers BH and many Thanks as always for all the Admin you put in  Sadly the top 16 Comp wont be the same with you missing, You'll be back!
A cracking effort from Arsenalfh who did keep me on my toes, ''I'm sure the finish could have been tighter with a 31 day month''  
Cheers Folks 
 
 

Final Table
Well done to Jimmy who swerved all of the bullets in the last race to hold on to the richly deserved win
Arsenalfh, Jediknight and Steve75 collect the place money with excellent totals.
Prizes:
£80 Jimmy2Shoes
£40: Arsenalfh
£20: Jediknight
£10: Steve75
Cup £30: Gbettle 
Winners to notify Skrill details to;
[email protected]
 
Table

 
From next month the following bookies are allowed;
 

 
Thanks for the continued support

355 exe devon national 
bang open race .  Lots in with chances if they can return to old form but with lots out of sorts ive class rated this one to see who hhas the class to even get round !!
armedanddangerous  245 
finish the story    242
at 14/1 and 16/1 theyll do in a wide open race 
2 x 2 pt ew singles 
 

For anyone that does fancy Identity Thief, Henry De Bromhead and Andrew Lynch sound extremely bullish about his chances. Lynch reckons he will be very hard to beat.
 
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/cheltenham-champion-hurdle-positive-bulletin-issued-for-champion-fancy-identity-thief/2036256/top/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews

Congrats Striker best of luck.

Well done Striker  keep forgetting you like the heavy going 
Best of luck in next weeks final Sir.

3 winners and a nice place, happy-ish with that 

Yeah Cheltenham looks a bit soon but you have to admire her ambition.
I'm not sure she was bumped at all and it was more the fact that Pacha du Polder over jumped which caused her to lose balance. Jockeys need to have really strong eccentric strength in their legs to resist against the extreme force which occurs when a horse lands after jumping a fence unlike cyclists who don't use their muscles eccentrically at all because they just slam on the brakes or gradually slow. Of course she's a supreme athlete but this is a completely different sport which she'll need time to adapt.
It's not only getting that experience and confidence to be a jump jockey but allowing her body to adapt physically to the sport. I reckon everything is coming a little too quickly.

I think the difference there was that the winner was more battle hardened.

Yeh I would agree with all of them but would say that Venetia's are a but like Jonjo's but they are better on bad ground instead. 
For me, Pipes yard has been going down steadily over the last couple of years and his best horses haven't fired for a long time. 
Donald Mccain is another trainer I would almost certainly avoid too albeit he looks to be starting to get a grip again.